From                                           Subject
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001 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Cyclone Frank: interesting scenarios for middle of next week
002 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Cyclone Frank: interesting scenarios for middle of next week
003 "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]    today
004 "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]            US Water runoff.
005 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]         Cyclone Frank: interesting scenarios formiddleofnext week
006 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]         Cyclone Frank: interesting scenarios for middleofnext week
007 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]         today
008 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Frank's surf is here ( Illawarra )
009 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]           Gems for the quiet times
010 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]          Cyclone Frank: interesting scenarios
011 Paul Graham [m3052695 at hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au]     North Coast WX...

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001

Date: Mon, 22 Feb 1999 08:57:18 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cyclone Frank: interesting scenarios for middle of next week
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Pardon my ingnorance,but what does NGP, MRF and JTWC stand for?
It is true, the more you ask, the more you know :-) 

Anthony Cornelius wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> NGP suggested the same scenario, with Frank nearing very close to Sydney
> and possibly making landfall nearby, maintaining fair intensity.  MRF
> insists that it'll weaken substainially (possibly due to some shearing)
> However, the JTWC models have it losing its tropical characteristics as
> it moves over to colder water.  Although the SST's of Sydney are around
> 25C, further out to sea they decrease to 22-24C, JTWC and NGP suggest
> Frank tracking along this cooler water before moving closer to the coast
> into the warmer 25C waters that are capable of sustaining a TC.
> 
> It certainly may be an interesting scenario, even an extra-tropical
> cyclone can pack winds of Cat 3-4 strength given the right conditions
> (Hurricane Bonnie had snow yet packed 110mph winds in the states)
> 
> Another situation I am keeping an eye on, is that both MRF and NGP are
> suggesting a rather strong upper level trough to pass over us, with some
> very cold air (for summer) near 558-564 heights!  MRF had vertical
> vorticities at -30!!!  Which in my opinion is too extreme, NGP is no
> where near as radical as MRF.  However, if Frank does track SSW parralel
> to the coast we could get SE winds on Thursday which may ruin any
> t'storm chances (although we have gotten t'storms on SE winds before,
> it's just that NE winds are preferable) MRF LI's are in the low positive
> range (around +3) but LI's are not reliable that far ahead.  Also, the
> 850 level will 50-80% moisture, which decreases our chance of a rain
> event, and increases our chance of possible t'storm event - a 70-90kt
> jetstream will also be present.
> 
> This is however +120-144hrs ahead, so is rather unreliable
> unfortunately.  I am waiting in anticipation for the new NGP models, and
> I current cannot access the ECMWF models, but again - will be eager to
> see them when the site comes back up.
> 
> Anthony from Brisbane

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002

Date: Tue, 23 Feb 1999 11:14:00 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cyclone Frank: interesting scenarios for middle of next week
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

G'day Micheal,

You shoulda seen Govetts Leap two weeks ago! Just Great. Big flow
happening.

Michael Thompson wrote:
> 
> Michael Thompson is off on Friday and a trip to Robertson, or any escarpment
> areas are looking the goods for flash floods, have beening waiting years to
> get a waterfall like Fitzroy Falls in full flood.
> 
> Surfwise should be very interesting as well, time to make sure the video
> gear is all set to go !
> 
> Michael

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003

To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: today
Date: Tue, 23 Feb 99 11:00:35 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id LAA17108

Hello everyone - no blue sky here around Mulgrave - 8/8 cloud cover,
although sun still casting shadows.  Light wind - guestimate 5-6 knots
just a tad north of west.  A bit humid, but I don't think we'll get
very much warmer than we are now - mid 20s I believe.

Been buried in another of my passions - genealogy - and on the way back
from Ballarat last Thursday I saw the biggest, whitest, crispest, most
pristine-looking cu I have ever seen - just about Gordon, on the Western
Hwy.  Looked like a HUGE  pavlova waiting for the oven, but piled high.
Hmmm.

Just felt like sharing that with you all:-)

Cheers,

Nandina
nandina at alphalink.com.au

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004

From: "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]
To: "Aussie-weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: US Water runoff.
Date: Tue, 23 Feb 1999 10:38:06 +1100
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Hi All,

	Those interested in overseas please find some interesting info below.


Terry.

mailto:dymprog at mpx.com.au

____________________________________________________________________________
____________________

LOS ANGELES - Runoff into California streams and reservoirs is forecast to
average 90 percent of the long-term April-July average, the state's
Department of Water Resources said in a monthly report released this week.

"Prospects are good for near normal water supplies in most areas of the
state," the report said.

The agency also said the usual wetter north and drier south pattern
characteristic of California's climate has been amplified this year with
lower percentage figures in the southern part of the state.

Runoff so far this season is about 90 percent of average, compared with 125
percent last year, the report said.

Since the current water year began on October 1, 1998, state wide rain and
snowfall as averaged 85 percent of the long-term average.

The volume of rain and snow has a direct impact on the generation of
low-cost hydropower in the state.

California's hydropower generation has averaged around 33,200 gigawatt hours
(GWh) over the last 20 years, while its record output of 60,066 GWh was set
in 1983.

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005

Date: Tue, 23 Feb 1999 20:15:52 +1100
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cyclone Frank: interesting scenarios formiddleofnext week
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I guess I should qualify my definition of thunder/lightning observations by saying
that they include distant or local storms which because of that distance didn't
bring rain to this site. In January 1985 there were 5  thunder and 6 lightning
days.Of those I recorded a thunderstorm with a downdraft and a trace of rain, on
Tuesday 22.1.85.(Hardly a storm of course,but technically it was!). And that
month's total rainfall was only 8.6 mm on 5 days.The other lightning/thunder
observations related to local or distant events. (3 months later there were 204 mm
in 15 days.). So all dry spells must come to an end!
I have a sneaky feeling this ex TC Frank is going to be a fizzer. It's still well
out to sea and I don't understand why the low is supposed to be moving southwest or
west when the upper winds are northwesterly unless it's the influence of the upper
trough coming from the west. We seem more likely to get rain from the upper trough
than the depression. The numerical analysis seems to suggest that it's got the
Bureau in a conundrum as well...

Jimmy Deguara wrote:

> How about 1985 Keith? Was there one towards the end of the month? It was a
> dry month even in Sydney with about 5mm or so if I recall.

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006

Date: Tue, 23 Feb 1999 20:17:58 +1100
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cyclone Frank: interesting scenarios for middleofnext week
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Ah,great comfort to all of you who think that storms are a thing of the past!
As long as I don't suffer another one like 21st January 1991 which struck my
telescopic tower and blew the anemometer and several other things to
bits...the only comfort being 59mm of rain in 30 minutes...

Michael Thompson wrote:

> Thanks Keith for that statistic, it sort puts things into perspective.
>
> Michael

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007

Date: Tue, 23 Feb 1999 20:20:10 +1100
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: today
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Nandina,here's a genealogical conundrum for you:
'Brother and sister have I none,
But that man's father is my father's son.'
Who am I?

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008

From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Frank's surf is here ( Illawarra )
Date: Tue, 23 Feb 1999 20:32:13 +1100
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Arrived some time during the day, when I rode past Warilla beach on the
pushbike at 7.30am this morning it was 4ft but lumpy with no real
definition.  By 5pm this afternoon we have a consistent 6ft NE swell that is
coming in from the NE, very organised, long wave intervals, typical of a
long travelled swell. No doubt of its origin.

Tomorrow I expect it will be 8-10ft, then Thursday - Friday the sky may be
the limit.


Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com

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009

From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Gems for the quiet times
Date: Tue, 23 Feb 1999 20:51:51 +1100
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got this from the WX-CHASE list on 27th September 1997 - thought you might
enjoy them!!
"Some real-life excerpts for your pleasure (or disgust).....

THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY PRODUCING LIGHTNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
^^^^^^^^^^^^^

ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN THE MET WASTELAND.

NEW FORECASTING TECHNIQUE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS VIEWING AREA.  ALL YA
GOTTA DO IS CHECK WHEN I AM ON MY FIRST MIDNIGHT PUBLIC
SHIPT..ZAALLLOOOOMMM!...SEVERE WEATHER!  ITS HIGHLY ACCURATE AND A NO
BRAINER.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUE FROM 105 TO 1125 DEGREES EXPECTED...

ROC REPORTING -RAPE AT 00Z...IS THAT A FELONY?

THE      (that was the whole product - - just the word THE)

SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WIND MAKES FOR A GOOD AFTERNOON TO RAKE LEAVES OR
WHATEVER.

THE OBSERVER HAS LOCKED HIMSELF OUT OF THE OFFICE AND CANNOT LOCATE A KEY.
OBSERVATIONS WILL BE RESUMED AS SOON AS THE OFFICE IS OPENED.

WINTER IS MY FAVORITE TIME OF YEAR....NOT.

WELL...FCST A FLD YESTERDAY AND IT WAS DRY...FCAST NO SNOW LAST NIGHT AND IT
SNOWED...SO IF YOU IGNORE THIS DISCUSSION AND TRASH IT I'LL UNDERSTAND.

ONE HUMONGOUS UGLY TSTM WITH CONTUS LTG 7MI E MVG S.  CAN SEE THE HAIL IN IT
FROM HERE.

USING LATEST FCST TECHNIQUES WE CALCULATE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLDS IS MVG
SE AT EXACTLY ONE ERASER-HEAD PER 5 1/2 HRS."

and one from our own BoM.....

PROG BULLETIN RE MESO-LAPS (EASTERN)
BASE 1200UTC 30 SEP 1997
DUE TO COMPUTER GREMLINS THIS WHOLE JOB HAS TO BE RE-RUN.


Jane
Bayswater

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010

X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
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Date: Tue, 23 Feb 1999 20:49:22 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cyclone Frank: interesting scenarios
  formiddleofnext week
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I would probably think that the pressuer gradient between the high and the
deep low will influence our weather.

Jimmy Deguara

At 08:15 PM 2/23/99 +1100, you wrote:
>I guess I should qualify my definition of thunder/lightning observations by 
>saying
>that they include distant or local storms which because of that distance
didn't
>bring rain to this site. In January 1985 there were 5  thunder and 6 lightning
>days.Of those I recorded a thunderstorm with a downdraft and a trace of 
>rain, on
>Tuesday 22.1.85.(Hardly a storm of course,but technically it was!). And that
>month's total rainfall was only 8.6 mm on 5 days.The other lightning/thunder
>observations related to local or distant events. (3 months later there were 
>204 mm
>in 15 days.). So all dry spells must come to an end!
>I have a sneaky feeling this ex TC Frank is going to be a fizzer. It's still 
>well
>out to sea and I don't understand why the low is supposed to be moving 
>southwest or
>west when the upper winds are northwesterly unless it's the influence of the 
>upper
>trough coming from the west. We seem more likely to get rain from the upper 
>trough
>than the depression. The numerical analysis seems to suggest that it's got the
>Bureau in a conundrum as well...

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011

Date: Tue, 23 Feb 1999 20:04:37 +1100 (EST)
From: Paul Graham [m3052695 at hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au]
X-Sender: m3052695 at hardy
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: North Coast WX...
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Today has been generally showery with some heavy falls here in Byron.  
Generally low Sc which cleared by late afternoon.  Still some tall Cu
around so maybe some more showers overnight. - Paul.