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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Thursday, 11 March 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Mario Daoust [Mario.Daoust at upng.ac.pg] warm fronts
002 "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au] Can you believe this?????
003 "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au] Re:
004 "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au] personal info
005 "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au] Can you believe this?????
006 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] warm fronts
007 "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com] Tomorrow
008 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Current Obs. & ASWA meeting.
009 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Tomorrow
010 "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au] Orange Weather
011 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Tomorrow
012 "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au] Tomorrow
013 "McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au] Lots of things.
014 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Current Obs.
015 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Tomorrow
016 David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com] CAPE,LIs: US vs Australia
017 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Current Obs.
018 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Current Obs.
019 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Lots of things.
020 Duane Van Schoonhoven [vanscho at ozemail.com.au Wx's Fine & Sunny in Adelaide :(
021 Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au] Severe TS advice
022 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Computer Models for Victoria
023 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Tornado detection by RFI/waterspouts
024 Ben Quinn [Bodie19 at eisa.net.au] Lots of things.
025 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Re:
026 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Forecast
027 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Current Obs - satpic status.
028 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Warm Fronts
029 "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au] Orange Weather
030 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Orange Weather
031 "RODNEY AIKMAN" [raikman at hotmail.com] warm fronts
032 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] Melbourne Storm Chasers
033 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Current Obs.
034 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au] Lots of things.
035 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Warm Fronts
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001
Date: Wed, 10 Mar 1999 23:50:43 +1000
From: Mario Daoust [Mario.Daoust at upng.ac.pg]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: warm fronts
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
RODNEY AIKMAN wrote:
> Hi everyone,
> I was wondering if someone on the list may be able to answer
> a question that has had me puzzled for years now. Why are good active
> warm fronts so rare in the southern hemisphere? I have asked
> professional meteorologists this question and have received different
> answers, ranging from 'I don't really know why'; or to the absence of
> substantial polar continental air masses; or the fact that circulations
> in the southern hemisphere are strongly zonal in mid latitudes. We are
> familiar with a process known as 'upslide' which results in a similar
> sequence of weather and precipitation as a warm front; however without
> the temperature discontinuities at the surface.
> Also, without warm fronts we hardly ever get to experience the classic
> occluding cyclones so prevalent in the northern hemisphere.
>
> Rod Aikman
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
Hi Rodney,
I think one key element has to do with air mass contrasts between continental
and oceanic regions. Look at a
world map. What is the most striking difference between the northern and
southern hemisphere in the mid latitudes?
Land masses occupy a much greater space in the northern hemisphere isn't it?
This "geographical arrangement" is a
key factor which might explain why warm fronts are more active in the NH.
At the source, contrasting environments (e.g., land vs ocean) promote
contrasting air masses (e.g., Polar Continental air mass vs Tropical Maritime
air mass). However, when you have a large land mass, you have a surface that
can greatly modify the physical properties of an invading air mass. (e.g., air
masses are modified through thermodynamic and/or mechanical causes). Thus,
when a Tropical Maritime air mass invades a hot SERN North American continent
in the summer, its properties are gradually changed (e.g., an increase in
temperature and instability). If this "secondary" air mass comes into contact
with a Polar Continental air mass, then one would have the perfect ingredients
for the development of a frontal system. The greater the contrast between the
two air masses, the better the potential for active fronts. Obviously, if the
contrast is too severe, this can lead to very severe weather (e.g.,
tornadoes).
Now, if we consider the southern hemisphere, modifications to the Maritime
Tropical air mass (in terms or thermodynamic changes similar to the NH) are
sensibly reduced. Here, the absence of large continental land masses in the
mid latitudes is changing the climatic equation. Indeed, this situation also
leads to the absence of substantial polar continental air masses.
Consequently, the clashes between the Maritime Tropical air mass and the Polar
Continental air mass are not as severe than in the NH.
The development of mid latitude cyclonic activity requires a meridional
flow. Consequently, a predominant zonal flow would reduce the development of
active fronts. From this point of view, the argument regarding the GAC in
the southern hemisphere is a valid one. It is also true that the mid
latitudes Westerlies in the SH are faster than in the NH... However, this
situation is also due to the quasi absence of land masses in the mid latitudes
(SH). The absence of orographic features promotes less friction between the
surface and the wind. Consequently, faster wind speed (e.g., zonal flow) is
generated.
Mario Daoust
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Can you believe this?????
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 99 06:52:24 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id HAA02853
Confuscious once say "Ignorance is its own reward" - or summat like that!
Cheers,
Nandina
nandina at alphalink.com.au
----------
> The photo of the rotating mesocyclone was rejected by The Geelong News,
> Victoria, Australia.....because there were no people standing in the
> pic!!!!. The photographer, a well known Storm Chaser had 'evacuated the
> area' before 4cm hail started falling & became concerned when suction
> vortices started spinning up in the paddock. The storm later went on to
> devastate Corio with up to 50mm falling in less than 30 minutes.
>
> Therefore, the trick is obviously make sure you have the townspeople with
> you when you take photos of funnels & cyclonic rotations to give the picture
> a 'human interest' angle.
>
> Clyve Herbert
> Leopold, Geelong
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Re:
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 99 07:00:47 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id HAA02914
Dear Big Hail Jim
If I was on that thing I would send you a message - since I'm not, I'll use your message to bounce back to you.
I need to find the answer to a maths question for a friend. Altough I have searched a few sites I cannot find this specific bit of info.
The question is "What is Diophantus' epigram?'
I fouind his epitaph, and I found several quotations which appear to be typical of him, but not one specifically identified as the above. I wonder if you - or any other math guru on this wonderfully talented list can assist me.
Cheers,
Nandina
nandina at alphalink.com.au
----------
> Hi,
>
> Jimmy Deguara here. My ICQ number is 33268455
>
> Can someone send me a message so that I can see it work. My Nick is Hail.
> Obviously!!
>
> Big Hail Jim
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: personal info
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 99 07:23:17 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id IAA03052
spooky--- :-)
Cheers,
Nandina
nandina at alphalink.com.au
----------
> close!!! my b'day is 20th of january!!
>
> At 03:33 PM 3/9/99 PST, you wrote:
> >HOw close are our Mobile numbers!
> >mine is 0411441204
> >yours 0411441101,
> >
> >Your birthday isnt 11 January is it??!!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Can you believe this?????
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 99 07:26:54 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id IAA03084
Cardboard cut-outs might work!
Cheers,
Nandina
nandina at alphalink.com.au
----------
> That's ludicrous!!! What are you going to do? Say "excuse me, could
> you please stand in front of that tornado coming towards us, so the
> media will use my pic? Don't mind the near tennis-ball size hail, and
> flying debris, it won't hurt too much."
>
> Australian media...I could say some words about it, but wouldn't be
> appropriate for this list :)
>
> On the other hand....I'll give $5 to whoever scans that pic first!!!
> (Ok, I won't...but please scan it soon, I'm already dying to see it!)
>
> Again...it's a total joke (the media)
>
> Anthony from Brisbane
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006
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 07:51:39 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: warm fronts
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Hi everyone,
> I was wondering if someone on the list may be able to answer
>a question that has had me puzzled for years now. Why are good active
>warm fronts so rare in the southern hemisphere?
Apart from the probably valid reasons you gave, isn't the Australian land
mass just too far north to be substantialy affected by warm fronts?? The
cold fronts that seem to sweep across southern oz seem to most often be the
most northerly of a chain of cold fronts. I've seen surface synoptic
charts of more southerly regions (the Hobart Mercury used to print these)
that showed plenty of warm fronts. I've also got a couple of synoptic
charts of oz that do show warm fronts over the continent, although
admitedly, they are very rare.
Cheers...
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007
X-Originating-Ip: [203.108.202.177]
From: "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Tomorrow
Date: Wed, 10 Mar 1999 15:26:00 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all. The models are still looking good (especially MRF) for tomorrow
and Saturday. The BOM has changed its forecast for tomorrow to possible
afternoon storms - 27C. The 200mb winds are from the NW but the surface
winds for tomorrow are SE'y which will give us a bit of humidity. I'm
still not good at reading the vorticity models etc
Chris (on his knees praying)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 10:31:44 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Current Obs. & ASWA meeting.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Taree: A beautiful day! Current temp 25C , about 2/8 covered with some
small cu & some Stratocu. Humid with slight breeze.
Any decision re: meeting yet?
Paul.
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009
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32)
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 10:47:16 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tomorrow
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi chris
No need to go down on your knee's praying,it doesnt work,ive been doing it
for months here in sydney and i ended up dislocating me knee yesterday :(
Matt Smith
>
>Hi all. The models are still looking good (especially MRF) for tomorrow
>and Saturday. The BOM has changed its forecast for tomorrow to possible
>afternoon storms - 27C. The 200mb winds are from the NW but the surface
>winds for tomorrow are SE'y which will give us a bit of humidity. I'm
>still not good at reading the vorticity models etc
>
>Chris (on his knees praying)
>Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010
From: "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]
To: "Aussie-weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Orange Weather
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 10:44:48 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2212 (4.71.2419.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All,
Another boring fine day!! No cloud at all.
At 10.40am 18C, 55%, 1022, WNW 10 knots
Terry.
mailto:dymprog at mpx.com.au
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011
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 10:55:15 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tomorrow
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hehehe poor Matt.
Just forget about storms and hey presto you get a severe one! Thats my
answer anyways! Its much like the sea ,,,,,turn your back and it hits ya
hard!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tomorrow
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 99 10:26:41 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id LAA04909
But Matt - the content of your email just could result in a thunderbolt from above, don't you think?
Cheers,
Nandina
nandina at alphalink.com.au
----------
> Hi chris
>
> No need to go down on your knee's praying,it doesnt work,ive been doing it
> for months here in sydney and i ended up dislocating me knee yesterday :(
>
> Matt Smith
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013
From: "McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Lots of things.
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 12:22:35 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet Mail 4.70.1161
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All,
Lots of things to say on a range of topics.
Firstly, going back to the TT's (tot-tot's) thing. I look at them as being
an indication of the likelyhood of storms. The darker the colour the more
likely. I don't rely on them too much though in terms of the types of
weather they produce.
Jarrell, TX tornado was video'd by a group of travelling Aussie blokes who
were there at the time (i remember this from the news report when it
happened.)
The BOM finally woke up to the fact that tomorrow (Friday)wasn't gunna be
fine and 24C like they forecasted last night and they amended our forecast
to possible afternoon TS max 27C.
Chris - give up for sat and sun. Low forming near us and it'll rain all day
and night and day and night (hopefully - we need a bit). Cricket will
prolly be called off too.
Jimmy - my hail photo's will be up within a month so you can get your fix
then. (BTW - what sort of car did you end up buying - will it withstand
big hail? - hehehe)
I was really disappointed reading a chase report from the Oklahoma City
Supercells last year to hear the conditions they had. CAPE was 5000. That
is not a typo. It was 5000. LI's were -11 to -14 and 500mb winds were
45-55knts and 200mb winds were 110-120knts. What chance have we got if
they can come up with figures like that? Grrrrrrr.....
Article (full two page spread) on the storms last tuesday in my local paper
had an interesting comment in it from a BOM person.
"Storm was caused when a trough line of cool air met the mass of warm moist
air over Melbourne." "That is a common event, but the moisture levels in
the air mass are a lot more than they were last year."
"Last year, the air mass was very dry, and this year it is a lot more
moist. That was one of the key things."
There were 5 separate articles on these two pages and these are the
headlines for each.
"DRAINS UNDER STRAIN"
"RAINSTORM MISS VALLEY VINES"
"STORM FLOODS STREETS AND SHOPS"
"CLEAR DEBRIS, SAY SES"
"80KM/H WINDS BLAST IN"
>From what it says in these articles I would estimate the damage bill for
all of melbourne at about $1-2 million.
That's the end of my spiel for the day.
Andrew McDonald.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
014
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 14:01:33 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Current Obs.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Howdy all. Sydneysiders:- has the Southerly hit there yet? Any major
impact?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
015
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32)
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 14:17:57 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tomorrow
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hope so :)
>But Matt - the content of your email just could result in a thunderbolt
from above, don't you think?
>
>Cheers,
>
>Nandina
>nandina at alphalink.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
016
Date: Wed, 10 Mar 1999 19:18:28 -0800 (PST)
From: David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com]
Subject: aus-wx: CAPE,LIs: US vs Australia
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
---McDonald wrote:
> I was really disappointed reading a chase report from the Oklahoma
City
> Supercells last year to hear the conditions they had. CAPE was
5000. That
> is not a typo. It was 5000. LI's were -11 to -14 and 500mb winds
were
> 45-55knts and 200mb winds were 110-120knts. What chance have we got
if
> they can come up with figures like that? Grrrrrrr.....
Hi Andrew and everyone else,
they are phenomenal figures but you do have to remember that those
data are modified to be reflective of the afternoon storm environment.
If you are reading Australian soundings then you are getting morning
(or night) data. With surface heating etc you would expect
considerable increases in CAPE and decreases in Lis so that on some of
our notable storm days this season you would have found some pretty
impressive figures (maybe not Oklahoma impressive though). For example
I remember a Charleville sounding late last year with a am sounding of
over 2000j/kg - this could well have approached or exceeded 4000j/kg
in the afternoon.
Still there is always someone (or something) better. Take a look at
http://www.storm-track.com/bang.htm
and you will find that Bangladeshi supercells develop with CAPE near
8000 j/kg (morning CAPE was 5400!) and LI near -14 deg C.
Cheers
David
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
017
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32)
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 14:25:35 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Current Obs.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Paul
I was up at 7.30 and it had already hit, mild conditions with total cloud
cover all day, no rain though
temp is 22.6 DP 15.7 wind is about 10 knots from the south east. pressure
is 1020 , and i cant get the GMS 5 sat pic up for some reason (the one
updated hourly)
cheers'
Matt
>
>
>Howdy all. Sydneysiders:- has the Southerly hit there yet? Any major
>impact?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
018
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 15:17:00 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Current Obs.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
ok. So it has no "balls" then. Well it wont arrive here then. Is Saturday
still looking up for Sydney then?
Any decision on ASWA meeting yet (like it is
Thursday..............................)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
019
X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 16:16:45 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lots of things.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
ON the US tornado Alley, there have been days of CAPE up to 7000. And yes,
LI that low can really make you cry.
Jimmy Deguara
At 12:22 11/03/99 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi All,
>
>Lots of things to say on a range of topics.
>
>Firstly, going back to the TT's (tot-tot's) thing. I look at them as being
>an indication of the likelyhood of storms. The darker the colour the more
>likely. I don't rely on them too much though in terms of the types of
>weather they produce.
>
>Jarrell, TX tornado was video'd by a group of travelling Aussie blokes who
>were there at the time (i remember this from the news report when it
>happened.)
>
>The BOM finally woke up to the fact that tomorrow (Friday)wasn't gunna be
>fine and 24C like they forecasted last night and they amended our forecast
>to possible afternoon TS max 27C.
>
>Chris - give up for sat and sun. Low forming near us and it'll rain all day
>and night and day and night (hopefully - we need a bit). Cricket will
>prolly be called off too.
>
>Jimmy - my hail photo's will be up within a month so you can get your fix
>then. (BTW - what sort of car did you end up buying - will it withstand
>big hail? - hehehe)
>
>I was really disappointed reading a chase report from the Oklahoma City
>Supercells last year to hear the conditions they had. CAPE was 5000. That
>is not a typo. It was 5000. LI's were -11 to -14 and 500mb winds were
>45-55knts and 200mb winds were 110-120knts. What chance have we got if
>they can come up with figures like that? Grrrrrrr.....
>
>Article (full two page spread) on the storms last tuesday in my local paper
>had an interesting comment in it from a BOM person.
>"Storm was caused when a trough line of cool air met the mass of warm moist
>air over Melbourne." "That is a common event, but the moisture levels in
>the air mass are a lot more than they were last year."
>"Last year, the air mass was very dry, and this year it is a lot more
>moist. That was one of the key things."
>
>There were 5 separate articles on these two pages and these are the
>headlines for each.
>
>"DRAINS UNDER STRAIN"
>"RAINSTORM MISS VALLEY VINES"
>"STORM FLOODS STREETS AND SHOPS"
>"CLEAR DEBRIS, SAY SES"
>"80KM/H WINDS BLAST IN"
>
>>From what it says in these articles I would estimate the damage bill for
>all of melbourne at about $1-2 million.
>
>That's the end of my spiel for the day.
>
>Andrew McDonald.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
020
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 15:59:15 +1030
From: Duane Van Schoonhoven [vanscho at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Wx's Fine & Sunny in Adelaide :(
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Everyone,
I need to unsubscribe from the list for awhile. I can still be
contacted at the same email address.
Duane Van Schoonhoven
Paracombe (Adelaide),
South Australia
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
021
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 13:30:22 +0800
From: Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au]
Organization: Strike One Lightning Photos
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Severe TS advice
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi,
This for the east of us
IDW10W00
BUREAU METEOROLOGY
AREA05:
PRIORITY
FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY PERTH
ISSUED AT 12.15 PM THURSDAY 11/03/1999
PEOPLE IN THE FAR EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SOUTHERN
COASTAL DISTRICTS ARE ADVISED
THAT THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
AFTERNOON.
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THAT
COULD RESULT
IN DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
AT MIDDAY ESPERANCE RADAR SHOWED A SUSPECTED SEVERE STORM 30
KILOMETRES EAST OF LAKE KING AND MOVING EASTWARDS AT 45
KILOMETRES
PER HOUR.
PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND,
IF
STORMS APPROACH SECURE LOOSE ITEMS, MOVE VEHICLES UNDER
COVER, THEN
STAY INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.
THIS THUNDERSTORM ADVICE WILL BE UPDATED AT 3.30 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.
--
Michael Fewings
Strike One Lightning Photos
http://strikeone.com.au
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022
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Computer Models for Victoria
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 16:32:43 +1100 (EST)
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>
>
> Hi everyone. Just had a look at the AVN,MRF,Tot-Tots and 200mb winds for
> Friday and Saturday in Victoria and things are looking exceptionally
> good.
>
> The LI's are around -2 to -4, the tot-tots are around 45-50 on Friday
> and 50-55 on Saturday and the jet stream picks up a bit of strength on
> Saturday too (assuming I've read the thing correctly ).
>
> I can't chase on Saturday due to playing in a cricket grand final but
> I'm up for a chase on Friday if the charts don't change too much. Any
> Melbournians intersted?
All models are pretty consistent on the formation of a low near
Tasmania, although some move it out more quickly than others. The
LAPS and GASP precip progs seem to keep most of the serious rain in
Tasmania and east of Melbourne.
(For what it's worth, after seeing yesterday's model runs I headed
for the TAB to put money on draws in the cricket matches in Melbourne
and Hobart, only to discover that they only take bets on which team
gets most points, not win/lose/draw).
Friday seems to me to be the only real chance for storms in Victoria -
persistent rain is more likely over the weekend.
I'll be on the road heading west to SA tomorrow afternoon - not
specifically chasing but I'll take a phone if things get interesting.
Blair Trewin
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
023
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Tornado detection by RFI/waterspouts
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 16:37:23 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
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Hi all,
Eye witness accounts from the few folks who have actually had the fortunate
(?) experience to look up a lifted tornado funnel, frequently mention
continuous lightning discharges around the internal walls. If so, you
would expect this to produce a significant amount of continous EM
interference (as well as presumably audio noise reminiscent of continuous
distant thunder).
Needless to say, the mechanisms which might produce this are poorly
understood, if at all. Presumably we have considerable air mass/water
droplet friction and hence charge separation. The mechanism for generating
charge is usually connected with ice formation although I recall reading a
BoM paper many years ago on charge formation in warm (i.e., non ice
producing) cumulus cloud.
On the subject of Waterspouts moving in-land, I have personally witnessed a
nice clean narrow vertical waterspout which had formed from a very average
bank of almost rainless cumulus (estimate tops less than 6,000m) over
Bribie passage, QLD, move inland a distance of approx 10km, gradually
lifiting into the cloud (note - not roping out!). At what stage the
rotation lifted from ground level I am not sure, but it was probably very
close to the coast. Other interesting facts about this observation was the
time - which was 7:00am on a Sunday morning in December (1997), and a
sister spout well out to sea on the other side of Bribie island, but in the
same cloud bank. The cloud bank was lying East/West and sliding SW into
calm relatively clear air. Behind the cloud bank was a low level warm and
very humid NE breeze with fog pockets at ground level. Note there was no
hint of a thunderstorm anywhere in this cloud bank, although a few did pop
up in the area much later in the day.
Regards,
jrw
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
024
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 15:43:33 +1000
From: Ben Quinn [Bodie19 at eisa.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lots of things.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
> ON the US tornado Alley, there have been days of CAPE up to 7000. And yes,
> LI that low can really make you cry.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
The CAPE figures for the Jarrel TX tornado were somewhere in the area of
7300.. and LI values got down to around the 17 mark if i remember
correctly.
I'd like to hear peoples thoughts on the what will happen in the
southern states with this next system over the next few days, I havn't
seen todays model runs but it look quite interesting for Melbourne
friday/saturday, and sydney saturday last night.. also, what do people
think of the idea of having some kind of forecast discussions on the
list? or even better still if there are people out there with the time,
maybe we could have a forecasts section on the ASWA homepage with
forecasts from people for there state/area/district? Just thinkg out
aloud..
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
025
X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
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Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 16:56:21 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sorry Nandina,
I have not heard of that term and its relation to Mathematics.
Jimmy Deguara
At 07:00 11/03/99 -0800, you wrote:
>Dear Big Hail Jim
>If I was on that thing I would send you a message - since I'm not, I'll use
>your message to bounce back to you.
>I need to find the answer to a maths question for a friend. Altough I have
>searched a few sites I cannot find this specific bit of info.
>
>The question is "What is Diophantus' epigram?'
>
>I fouind his epitaph, and I found several quotations which appear to be
>typical of him, but not one specifically identified as the above. I wonder
>if you - or any other math guru on this wonderfully talented list can assist
>me.
>
>Cheers,
>
>Nandina
>nandina at alphalink.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
026
X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
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Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 16:58:14 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Forecast
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Jimmy here,
Without even having looked at other models, the LI seems to have indicated
a developing low in SE NSW to the Tasman Sea on Saturday. It is quite
spectacular to see with a rain band and possible embedded storms.
Hail Jimmy
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
027
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 16:03:59 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Current Obs - satpic status.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Matt Smith wrote:
>
> Hi Paul
> I was up at 7.30 and it had already hit, mild conditions with total cloud
> cover all day, no rain though
> temp is 22.6 DP 15.7 wind is about 10 knots from the south east. pressure
> is 1020 , and i cant get the GMS 5 sat pic up for some reason (the one
> updated hourly)
NPMOC's been stuffed since 2330z (10:30). Last OK satpic archived
was at 199903102130z. It has just come back with an OK satpic at
199903110330z. This sort of problem is regular like clockwork with
the loss of an average 2 satpics between 1400z and 1700z every day
with few exceptions. This is caused by congestion outside Australia
en-route that doesn't seem to effect sites like COLA. It might have
something to do with a backup run at NPMOC instead. Hope there's no
need for satpics around these times:-)
By the way, NPMOC is updated every 30 mins with the satpic available
about 45 mins after it was taken by GMS-5. I archive the 30z image
only for gmsfull, gmsc and gmsd.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
028
X-Originating-Ip: [203.25.186.112]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Warm Fronts
Date: Wed, 10 Mar 1999 23:38:08 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi every1,
They certainly seem to be rare beasts...but I have a vague memory of
quite a substantial warm front event in Melbourne in September 1979. I
think it was around VFL Grand Final time!
There have probably been ones since but that one sticks out quite
vividly in my memory. Anyone know of the event?
Kevin from Wycheproof.
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
029
From: "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]
To: "Aussie-weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Orange Weather
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 19:11:58 +1000
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Hi All,
A nice little storm with 40 Knot winds fronting it for about three minutes.
The rain only lasted about 15 minutes and dumped 12mm of rain in about 5
minutes with a total of 14.4mm received. Unfortunately decent cloud cells
were observed.
At 19.10 22C, 60%, 1018, No breeze.
Terry.
mailto:dymprog at mpx.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
030
X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 19:14:55 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Orange Weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Terry gets them when nobody else does.
Jimmy Deguara
At 19:11 11/03/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi All,
>
> A nice little storm with 40 Knot winds fronting it for about three minutes.
>The rain only lasted about 15 minutes and dumped 12mm of rain in about 5
>minutes with a total of 14.4mm received. Unfortunately decent cloud cells
>were observed.
>
> At 19.10 22C, 60%, 1018, No breeze.
>
> Terry.
>
>mailto:dymprog at mpx.com.au
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031
X-Originating-Ip: [203.43.44.177]
From: "RODNEY AIKMAN" [raikman at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: warm fronts
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 01:55:26 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone,
Thanks to those of you who responded to my question
regarding warm fronts. You thoughts and explanations were rather logical
and interesting.
Rod Aikman
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
032
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne Storm Chasers
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 21:04:24 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
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Thanks to you all for visiting the continually updated MSC site at
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence
The site has already topped the hit register at rubix.net.au (and has only
been up for 5 days out of the first 11 for the month) with 132 separate
visits from Australia and the USA!!!!
Thanks for your supports - guess this means the MSC's are in the running for
the 'free set of steak knives' prize. (problem - there are more than 6 of
us - maybe we have them on a 'rotating' basis).
Thanks heaps all for your support and suggestions.
Jane
Bayswater, Melbourne
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
033
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Current Obs.
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 17:42:42 +1000
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Yep, perfect stratocumulus chasing conditions all day here in the Illawarra,
no sun, the bearest hint of drizzle, and a base about 1500m.
Expect drizzle to set in for an hour or two after sunset,
Michael
-----Original Message-----
>Howdy all. Sydneysiders:- has the Southerly hit there yet? Any major
>impact?
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034
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 21:06:43 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lots of things.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
SRH (Storm Relative Helecity) is meant to play a large role in
supercells and tornadoes. Quite often I'll look at US soundings just
out of curiousity, and one thing that I've noticed is that their SRH is
consistently high, you only need an SRH of 150 for the approximate
threshold of supercells. 450+ is enough for violent (F4, F5)
tornadoes...during one of my uni lectures today, I got bored and started
going through soundings...I had a look at some "462...392....187....556...889!!!" I'm not sure if SRH
works like SWEAT (where if SWEAT is too high, it means no severe
t'storms will develop) but I think that may play a significant role in
the difference. However, SRH is another mid-west derived variable, so
maybe it doesn't calculate it correctly for us?
Anthony
McDonald wrote:
> I was really disappointed reading a chase report from the Oklahoma City
> Supercells last year to hear the conditions they had. CAPE was 5000. That
> is not a typo. It was 5000. LI's were -11 to -14 and 500mb winds were
> 45-55knts and 200mb winds were 110-120knts. What chance have we got if
> they can come up with figures like that? Grrrrrrr.....
>
> Article (full two page spread) on the storms last tuesday in my local paper
> had an interesting comment in it from a BOM person.
> "Storm was caused when a trough line of cool air met the mass of warm moist
> air over Melbourne." "That is a common event, but the moisture levels in
> the air mass are a lot more than they were last year."
> "Last year, the air mass was very dry, and this year it is a lot more
> moist. That was one of the key things."
>
> There were 5 separate articles on these two pages and these are the
> headlines for each.
>
> "DRAINS UNDER STRAIN"
> "RAINSTORM MISS VALLEY VINES"
> "STORM FLOODS STREETS AND SHOPS"
> "CLEAR DEBRIS, SAY SES"
> "80KM/H WINDS BLAST IN"
>
> >From what it says in these articles I would estimate the damage bill for
> all of melbourne at about $1-2 million.
>
> That's the end of my spiel for the day.
>
> Andrew McDonald.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
035
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 1999 22:31:42 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Warm Fronts
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Hi every1,
>
>They certainly seem to be rare beasts...but I have a vague memory of
>quite a substantial warm front event in Melbourne in September 1979. I
>think it was around VFL Grand Final time!
>There have probably been ones since but that one sticks out quite
>vividly in my memory. Anyone know of the event?
>
>Kevin from Wycheproof.
Funny you should say that Kevin, because I've got a scrapbook somehwere
where I cut out a couple of synoptic charts precisely because they showed a
'classic northern hemisphere' warm and cold front combination crossing the
continent. The dates are definitely 1979!
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
| Document: 990311.htm
Updated: 29 March 1999 |
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