Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx]
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Monday, 15 March 1999

    From                                           Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 steve baynham [bayns at nor.com.au]               Latest JCU
002 "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]               Latest JCU
003 Ross Portas [rportas at mindless.com]             Latest JCU
004 Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]       JCU Satpic Calibration chart
005 "James Harris (819)" [JH at intravel.com.au]      Hunter Storms
006 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]        Bellenden Ker rainfall in Cyclone Rona
007 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au                    Hunter Storms
008 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au                    Bellenden Ker rainfall in Cyclone Rona
009 "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]               JCU Satpic Calibration chart
010 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Good Thunderstorm in Blackheath
011 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Good Thunderstorm in Blackheath
012 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Good Thunderstorm in Blackheath
013 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Good Thunderstorm in Blackheath
014 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Good Thunderstorm in Blackheath
015 "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]            Orange Weather
016 Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au]        Lightning Pic
017 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]           Lightning Photography
018 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au                    Lightning Photography
019 Michael_Bath at amp.com.au                        Lightning Photography
020 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]        Bellenden Ker rainfall in Cyclone Rona
021 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]        Brisbane
022 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au                    Bellenden Ker rainfall in Cyclone Rona
023 "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au]    Further N Qld Heavy Rain
024 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Brisbane
025 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   north sydney storms
026 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Hunter Storms
027 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Some more info on the 13th March chase
028 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au]     NE NSW T'storms
029 "truffles at xenon.net" [truffles at xenon.net]      Bellenden Ker rainfall in Cyclone Rona

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001

X-Sender: bayns at nornet.nor.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Sun, 14 Mar 1999 23:15:28 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at nor.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Latest JCU
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

marty,
go here - http://www.ece.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/aushlast.gif

steve

At 09:44 PM 3/14/99 +1000, you wrote:
>What exactly is the 'JCU Satelite', what does it show me, and how do I
>access it?
>
>Thanks,
>
>Marty (feeling rather talkative this evening!)
>Brisbane, Australia
>martyp at dynamite.com.au
>Images of Canberra: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
>Lightning Photos: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
>ICQ: 11790565

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002

From: "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Latest JCU
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 01:21:38 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Thank you. Although I could not find a legend regarding the symbolism of the
colours used in the images. Where can I find this?

Thanks,

Marty.
Brisbane, Australia
martyp at dynamite.com.au
Images of Canberra: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
Lightning Photos: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
ICQ: 11790565

-----Original Message-----
>marty,
>go here - http://www.ece.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/aushlast.gif
>
>steve

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003

Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 01:43:35 +1000
From: Ross Portas [rportas at mindless.com]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Latest JCU
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Marty,

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that the JCU sat is a
false colour infra-red pic..... The different colours refer to the temperatures
of the cloud.
White meaning rather cold, and signifying high cloud tops, and storms
(hopefully).

Cheers,
Rosco.



Marty wrote:

> Thank you. Although I could not find a legend regarding the symbolism of the
> colours used in the images. Where can I find this?
>
> Thanks,
>
> Marty.
> Brisbane, Australia
> martyp at dynamite.com.au
> Images of Canberra: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
> Lightning Photos: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
> ICQ: 11790565

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004

X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au
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Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 08:36:30 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: JCU Satpic Calibration chart
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Marty,

Check out our satpic links page:
http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/links/ozsatpic.htm

It has links to many of the JCU images available, plus a link to the
calibration chart to interpret the colours.

regards, Michael


At 01:21 15/03/1999 +1000, you wrote:
>Thank you. Although I could not find a legend regarding the symbolism of the
>colours used in the images. Where can I find this?

*==========================================================*
 Michael Bath  Oakhurst, Sydney   mbath at ozemail.com.au
                 Australian Severe Weather
       http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
*==========================================================*

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005

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Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 10:35:00 +1100
From: "James Harris (819)" [JH at intravel.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Exp32-Serialno: 50000048
Subject: aus-wx: Hunter Storms
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Hi All,
Firstly I'm sorry if you get another message similar to this one but None of 
my emails from Rocketmail (and Hotmail)  seem to be being sent. I sent one 
last night but it still hasn't showed up. Oh well just have to write it 
again.

After alot of Umming and Erring, I finally decided that it was worth 
traveling to the Upper Hunter (Sunday)  just to get a glimpse of some 
storms. I left St Ives around 12pm and arrived into Singleton just before 
2pm. On the way up the was some very nice towers going up to the W of 
Singleton. Looked a bit weak at first but seemed to be gaining in strength. 
(There was also a nice tower going up near Coffs). I arrived into Singleton 
to see  what looked like 3 Separate cells all bunched up together W and NW 
of there. I encountered the first one 5ks W of Singleton. Certainly looked 
great up high with even Anvil but was a bit weak below. Only Heavy rain for 
10 Minutes. Not much lightning. But I wasn't complaining it was the first 
one I've been in for a while!. The other two cells were towards the NW and 
were looking alot stronger. I headed over to Aberdeen which looked to be in 
the path of them. On the way I did stop in Muswellbrook and took some great 
shots of the two cells and an extremely dark and defined rain curtain. 
Correct me if I'm wrong but there also seemed to be some microburst action 
from the side of the curtain, pushing the base of it hundreds of metres 
horizontally. Some more great shots!
I arrived into Aberdeen at around 3pm and was promptly hit by the first of 
the two with still not much lightning and wind but extremely heavy rain and 
pea size Hail. The downpour lasted about 15 - 20 minutes and covered most of 
the streets and parks underwater. Got some good shots of the flash flooding 
with one of the local bowls club who had no greens to play on , just 
Water!!!!
At around 3:30pm headed North to the Southern outskirts of Scone to witness 
the second of the two cells pass through. This one was alot more organized 
with another dark heavy rain curtain (Horizontally shooting out at the 
bottom again), shelf cloud (a bit unorganized at first), nice tinges of 
green and some great CG lightning. This one hit with a bit more of an 
impact. There was a very bright Flash and then spontaneously bang (couldnt 
see where) and then a huge gust of wind and very heavy driving rain (some 
hail was also observed) The wind was strong enough to break some small 
branches off some trees. This lasted 15 minutes until the Hail hit, some 
good size around 2cm's. This system passed onto the Barringotn area which is 
pretty unpassable. So I had to be content with going back to Singleton. I 
headed home down the F3 at 6pm and witnessed some great pulse storms that 
shot up in a line running N - S. They looked fantastic with a clean strong 
structure and circular anvil but not much in the way of lightning. A couple 
of CG's near Wyong and some heavy rain but that was it. Took some more shots 
at Sunset. The cloud colour was spectacular red's, pinks, and oranges! Got 
home at 8pm
My only down point was that I had ripped the film out of its canister 
thinking that it was a 36exp (Manual Camera) but really it was a 24exp. I'm 
not too sure how many shots I have lost but Well see when they're developed. 
Aggggggghhhhhhhhh!!!!!

James Harris

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006

From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aus-wx: Bellenden Ker rainfall in Cyclone Rona
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 10:35:36 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The numbers are now in. Aggravatingly, Bellenden Ker (top station)
did not report on February 12, meaning that the 24-hour totals
from the event were lost. The two-day total for the 48 hours to 0900
on the 13th was 1870mm. Bizarrely, this is more than double the
Australian 24-hour record, yet it's not a 48-hour record because
the same station recorded 1947mm in the same circumstances for
the 48 hours to 0900 on 5 January 1979. (I've seen attempts made to
reconstruct 24-hour totals from that event, but nothing that is 
officially recognised).

The monthly total was 2506mm, which is nowhere near a record - 5387mm
was recorded there in January 1979 (and 4057mm in February 1977). 
Still a lot of water!

Blair Trewin

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 10:38:39 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hunter Storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



These storms that James talked about hit the Manning Valley area at about
7.30pm last night. Some areas received heavy rain, plenty CG hits & a great
gust-front. Taree received decent winds assoc with the gust front (actualy
quite spectacular considering the little activity associated with it). Nice
roll cloud blew in a fresh SW breeze.

Today is looking much better with altocu already present at 7.30am and
masses of it. So heres hoping.

Paul (currently at Port Macquarie)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 11:25:38 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bellenden Ker rainfall in Cyclone Rona
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



wow Blair............that is amazing! Should be interesting to see the last
weeks figures as well.
Thanx for that...as usual you are a wealth of info!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009

From: "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: JCU Satpic Calibration chart
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 10:35:23 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Thanks very much to those who helped with info on the JCU images and what
the colours meant... now I can pretend to keep up!

Cheers!

Marty.
Brisbane, Australia
martyp at dynamite.com.au
Images of Canberra: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
Lightning Photos: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
ICQ: 11790565

-----Original Message-----
>Marty,
>
>Check out our satpic links page:
>http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/links/ozsatpic.htm
>
>It has links to many of the JCU images available, plus a link to the
>calibration chart to interpret the colours.
>
>regards, Michael

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010

Date: Sun, 14 Mar 1999 07:50:36 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good Thunderstorm in Blackheath
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Yes rod, it was very funny. I was out there checking it all out and most
folk just stood under the awnings of shops looking around glibly. Still,
thats their entitlment :-)

Lindsay

RODNEY AIKMAN wrote:
> 
> Hi Lindsay,
>            Yes, I know the feeling well. You can have a phenomenal storm
> and be very excited about it, and most people couldn't give a
> proverbial.
> 
> Rod,

> Bendigo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011

Date: Sun, 14 Mar 1999 07:55:04 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good Thunderstorm in Blackheath
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Yeah, it was funny/strange but then they would think that of me. It's
all relative i guess. I had a great veiw of the multi-cell storms out
Oberon way. Developing cumulus, an anvil and then another pettering out
- really interesting. Coming home from Katoomba last night we had to
pull over near Medlow Bath (alt = 1050 metres) as the rain was blinding.
Still, got home to blackheath and there was only 5mm in the gauge. Does
anyone know why Blackheath doesn't seem to get the real heavy falls? Is
it because the storms are often still developing, ie:orographically, and
also because the rain is falling into dryer air or...?

Lindsay

Terry Bishop wrote:
> 
> Hi Lindsay,
> 
>         Ya can't please all of the people all of the time.
> 
>  I feel sorry for the poor suckers missing out on all the fun.
> 
>  Terry.
> 
> mailto:dymprog at mpx.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012

Date: Sun, 14 Mar 1999 08:02:49 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good Thunderstorm in Blackheath
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Yes, maybe i did get "licked" by an offshoot from the strike or
something. I didn't want to exaggerate the experience in my excitement
but looking back on the email, i didn't. The sound was so loud it almost
blew my ear drum (and i had the windows closed!). There are some marks
on the Tyre, I'll have to look more carefully though.

We had a strike within feet of the house here last summer. My budgie
fell off his perch and the woman across the road screamed "Sh..!" and
came running outside. It was so loud and there was that strong smell
afterwards. we are so high here on a narrow ridge (around 3600 feet)
and the clouds get very close. Funny thing was during this strike there
didn't seem to be much cloud, it was really sunny. Is that possible?
There was no building thunder or rumbles, just an absolute rock of
thunder and the whole house light up and this really strong smell sat in
the street for a little while.



Lindsay
truffles at xenon.net wrote:
> 
> This is what my instinct tells me too - you may have been just a 'tad' closer than you realised Lindsay.  I'd think a little 'tongue' mighta taken a lick at your tyre dude.
> 
> Have you taken a really close look at the tyre/mudguard and all? .. maybe some faint scorch marks perhaps?
> 
> rals
> Brissie

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013

Date: Sun, 14 Mar 1999 07:48:50 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good Thunderstorm in Blackheath
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Good thought Nandina...hmmm, all i know is that it was great fun!

WE had a great light show last night the 13th too.

Nandina Morris wrote:
> 
> Lindsay,
> 
> Glad it only glowed!
> 
> Just to show I'm learning - Path of least resistance, maybe?  or will someone reply just to show I don't know anything yet?
> 
> Huh
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Nandina
> nandina at alphalink.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
014

Date: Sun, 14 Mar 1999 07:45:46 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good Thunderstorm in Blackheath
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Lightning was very close. It flashed right next to me, dunno, maybe 0-30
feet. It was too bright to tell exactly.

Very exciting though!

Lindsay

Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> 
> How far was the lightning strike away?? There was a lady in the US that had
> her car struck and three out of four tyres went flat
> 
> Jimmy

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
015

From: "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]
To: "Aussie-weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Orange Weather
Date: Sun, 14 Mar 1999 20:56:19 +1000
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Hi All,

	Nothing happening. Looking North some Cu to from about 30 degrees elevation
to the horizon else all clear.

	At 11.45 21C, 55%, 1016, No breeze.

 Terry.

mailto:dymprog at mpx.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
016

Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 11:18:55 +0800
From: Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au]
Organization: Strike One Lightning Photos
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning Pic
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all Mike from Perth here,

Not only do I think that it is a excellent photo, it is also Greg's first
lighting photo as well. It takes some beating when you capture that as your
first!!

Ben Quinn wrote:

> Hey Ben from Brisbane here..
>
> Check this out:
>
> http://strikeone.com.au/other/gregs.htm
>
> This was taken by Greg Spencer in Perth, deadset brilliant i think..

--
Michael Fewings
Strike One Lightning Photos
http://strikeone.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
017

From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Lightning Photography
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 15:04:59 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.2106.4
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

With all of these really great shots starting to turn up, we out here (who
are amateurish in our attempts to produce the same stunning results as you
guys do), would love to know how you did it.

Please can you tell us (for each shot you post on a site somewhere)
what speed film you used
type of film
f-stop
shutter speed or exposure time for your pics.

That way we can start to get a feel for what works in which situations.

Thanks in advance,

Jane ONeill
'lightning photographer extraordinaire (by next year)'
Bayswater, Melbourne

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
018

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 15:21:27 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning Photography
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Jane -

I use ISO 100 (better to use 50 but its hard to buy). USE Kodak Gold as its
the best..........

I Use either a bulb setting (which means you hold down the button to keep
the shutter open for as long as necessary or a 15 sec or 30sec  setting.
Its important that you either have a tripod and keep VERY still when taking
long exposures or do what I do to trick the camera:-

Put the setting on to self timer (if you have it) and set the exposure for
15 or 30 secs - then you dont get any blurring via movement - only problem
is its hard to capture exact shots - its a lot hit & miss

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
019

From: Michael_Bath at amp.com.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: AMP at NET
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 15:41:01 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning Photography
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com




Hi Jane and all.

I cant resist an invitation like this to promote my site:
http://www.lightningphotography.com/

I have indicated films speed, F-stop and exposure times for most of the
pictures I have, and there is a tips page as well.
Though you wont see any new pictures from this season - apart from one shot
on 13/11/98 and a few at Moree on 30/1/99 there have been no opportunities
to photograph lightning.

regards, Michael
mbath at ozemail.com.au





>"Jane ONeill"  on 15/03/99 02:04:59 PM

With all of these really great shots starting to turn up, we out here (who
are amateurish in our attempts to produce the same stunning results as you
guys do), would love to know how you did it.

Please can you tell us (for each shot you post on a site somewhere)
what speed film you used
type of film
f-stop
shutter speed or exposure time for your pics.

That way we can start to get a feel for what works in which situations.

Thanks in advance,

Jane ONeill
'lightning photographer extraordinaire (by next year)'
Bayswater, Melbourne

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
020

From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bellenden Ker rainfall in Cyclone Rona
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 15:42:34 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> 
> 
> 
> wow Blair............that is amazing! Should be interesting to see the last
> weeks figures as well.
Bellenden Ker reports manually at the end of each month, so these 
should come in about the second week of April.

(I'm trying to find out who/what is up there - presumably no-one
actually lives on the summit).

Blair Trewin

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
021

From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 15:51:24 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> 
> Marty wrote:
> 
> >> The bureau have forecast thunderstorms for Brisbane next Saturday!
> 
> Then Anthony wrote:
> 
> >Are you sure that's from the Bureau?  Or is it from another source such
> >as WNI/wx underground etc.
> 
> Hmm.. yeah I thought that might come back to bite me on the butt. I didn't
> really feel the Bureau would attempt such a long range forecast. But, I know
> absolutely nothing about the Bureau, so there my speculation ends!
> 
At the moment 7-day forecasts are being run by the media, but they 
are produced by private companies beyond day 4. I haven't seen
recently updated numbers but do know that, for Melbourne at least, the
6th and 7th days of the Channel 7 forecast were doing significantly
WORSE than climatology.

The Bureau only go to 4 days at the moment, although it's not unknown
for Queensland (especially) to put an indication of general conditions
(e.g. something along the lines of 'no significant rain is expected 
until the weekend at least') beyond that in its extended outlook if
they're feeling confident. They will be going to 5 days in May with
an indication of 'general conditions' for days 6 and 7 - I've yet to
see what form this will take - hopefully it will be along the lines
of the US 6-10 day outlook (which predicts above/below temperatures/
precip for the period, rather than trying to indicate specifics for
each day), as this approach is a fair reflection of the uncertainties
involved.

(As a sidetrack, the reason that it's not happening till May is that
the Bureau is apparently required to give 3 months' notice of any
new services as part of the settlement when it got taken to court
by the NZ Met Service, who complained that the Bureau's providing of
services for free cut them out of the market...).

Having said that I don't think too much of 7th day forecasts, Sunday
does look as if it has the potential to be VERY interesting in
Victoria on both the GASP and ECMWF models.

Blair Trewin

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
022

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 15:59:02 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bellenden Ker rainfall in Cyclone Rona
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I think Blair they could be telstra workers (theres a big communications
tower on the summit) - i Think thats what I heard.

But I have driven past & flown over Bellenden Kerr and its a fairly
impressive mountain.
Also I wonder what rainfall obs could be obtained from the Mt Hinchinbrook
range NE of Townsville (pitty theres no aws there!)

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023

From: "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au]
To: "aus-wx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Further N Qld Heavy Rain
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 15:29:42 +1000
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G'day All

Quite a big wet season up there, though 300mm in a day doesn't quite compare
with over 1000mm/day possibly during TC Rona!

RENEWAL  OF FLOOD WARNING FOR COASTAL RIVERS and STREAMS BETWEEN TULLY AND
COOKTOWN
Issued at 10:07am on Monday the 15th of March 1999 by the Bureau of
Meteorology, Brisbane.

Further heavy rainfall has been recorded in the coastal rivers and streams
between Tully and Cooktown in the 24 hours to 9am Monday.  Highest totals
have
been concentrated in the area from Cairns to Innisfail and include Topaz
307mm,
Babinda 309mm and Copperlode 169mm.

Some rises have been recorded in the Johnstone River but, at this stage,
river
levels are expected to remain below minor flood levels.

A flood warning is current for the Barron and Tully Rivers.

Elsewhere along the coast, river rises are expected to cause local flooding
in
the area and motorists are advised not to enter flooded road crossings.

Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon may develop into more general rain
systems
tonight and cause further moderate to heavy rainfall.
------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers from Brisbane
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

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024

From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 17:27:02 +1000
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Hi Jimmy,

I can't resist getting you excited but the models have a repeat of last
weekends forecast for the coming weekend. The NSW ASWA meeting could be
interesting if things start to fire !

Michael


-----Original Message-----
>the Bureau is game to forecast that far ahead. I don't even look at
>forecasts anymore to not keep my hopes high. I have learned from that
>experience.
>
>Jimmy Deguara

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025

From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: north sydney storms
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 17:30:48 +1000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I saw these and the Gosford one from Wollongong, they looked great, but
there was very little upper winds and I have learnt that this often produces
storms whose bark is worst than their bite.

Michael


-----Original Message-----
>Just a mail to tell everyone what i observed today..
>
>North of sydney at around 5pm i noticed a cell starting to anvil out,
>looked more like an atomic bomb blast than a storm(got a couple of good
>photos), had some strong updraughts feeding into it and it was
>precipitating (white shaft could have been hail?)
>no lightning was observed (although plenty of static on the radio)
> At 5.30 as that cell moved east towards the coast and died off another
>cell was building from the same place the last one had , my attention was
>drawn to it and after 15 minutes 3 CG's occured at once, and 1 more 5
>minutes later, i then had to leave for work,but  this one died off around
>sunset i think, as i couldnt see any activity when i went outside around
>8pm. seemed like your typical pulse type cells..
>
>Currently its warm and humid here 25 degree's DP is 18 and relative
>humidity is 65%
>Whilst out at richmond its 22 degree's DP is 19 and RH is 83%
>
>Matt Smith

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026

From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hunter Storms
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 17:35:49 +1000
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Can't wait for the photos, you most probably did witness a microburst, these
events are far more common than once realised, yesterdays heat and
relatively low humidity ( it was here anyway ) in the lower atmosphere would
have enhanced microburst activity.

I am glad somebody chased to the Hunter, had I another car I would have gone
too.

Michael



-----Original Message-----
Hi All,
Firstly I'm sorry if you get another message similar to this one but None of
my emails from Rocketmail (and Hotmail)  seem to be being sent. I sent one
last night but it still hasn't showed up. Oh well just have to write it
again.

After alot of Umming and Erring, I finally decided that it was worth
traveling to the Upper Hunter (Sunday)  just to get a glimpse of some
storms. I left St Ives around 12pm and arrived into Singleton just before
2pm. On the way up the was some very nice towers going up to the W of
Singleton. Looked a bit weak at first but seemed to be gaining in strength.
(There was also a nice tower going up near Coffs). I arrived into Singleton
to see  what looked like 3 Separate cells all bunched up together W and NW
of there. I encountered the first one 5ks W of Singleton. Certainly looked
great up high with even Anvil but was a bit weak below. Only Heavy rain for
10 Minutes. Not much lightning. But I wasn't complaining it was the first
one I've been in for a while!. The other two cells were towards the NW and
were looking alot stronger. I headed over to Aberdeen which looked to be in
the path of them. On the way I did stop in Muswellbrook and took some great
shots of the two cells and an extremely dark and defined rain curtain.
Correct me if I'm wrong but there also seemed to be some microburst action
from the side of the curtain, pushing the base of it hundreds of metres
horizontally. Some more great shots!
I arrived into Aberdeen at around 3pm and was promptly hit by the first of
the two with still not much lightning and wind but extremely heavy rain and
pea size Hail. The downpour lasted about 15 - 20 minutes and covered most of
the streets and parks underwater. Got some good shots of the flash flooding
with one of the local bowls club who had no greens to play on , just
Water!!!!
At around 3:30pm headed North to the Southern outskirts of Scone to witness
the second of the two cells pass through. This one was alot more organized
with another dark heavy rain curtain (Horizontally shooting out at the
bottom again), shelf cloud (a bit unorganized at first), nice tinges of
green and some great CG lightning. This one hit with a bit more of an
impact. There was a very bright Flash and then spontaneously bang (couldnt
see where) and then a huge gust of wind and very heavy driving rain (some
hail was also observed) The wind was strong enough to break some small
branches off some trees. This lasted 15 minutes until the Hail hit, some
good size around 2cm's. This system passed onto the Barringotn area which is
pretty unpassable. So I had to be content with going back to Singleton. I
headed home down the F3 at 6pm and witnessed some great pulse storms that
shot up in a line running N - S. They looked fantastic with a clean strong
structure and circular anvil but not much in the way of lightning. A couple
of CG's near Wyong and some heavy rain but that was it. Took some more shots
at Sunset. The cloud colour was spectacular red's, pinks, and oranges! Got
home at 8pm
My only down point was that I had ripped the film out of its canister
thinking that it was a 36exp (Manual Camera) but really it was a 24exp. I'm
not too sure how many shots I have lost but Well see when they're developed.
Aggggggghhhhhhhhh!!!!!

James Harris

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027

From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Some more info on the 13th March chase
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 17:50:45 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The rainlist has come out for Berry which received 51mm on Saturday. The
rainfall in Kangaroo Valley was probably higher, perhaps by 25-50%. The band
was very narrow with both Nowra and Kiama scoring less than 10mm.

The Berry - Kangaroo Valley storm after it moved to sea produced very
extensive outflow winds from the SE, I was convinced it was outflow at
Gerroa, but when I got to Kiama it was still SE and I started to wonder, at
Shellharbour it was still SE and I was debating a SE change rather than
outflow, but the winds reversed to NW later, so it was outflow afterall.

A couple of Kiama workfriends reported hail, one indicated about the size of
2 dollar coins.

I watched the video last night and the storm whilst in the active growth
stage just west of Kangaroo Valley looked very suspicious, you could almost
imagine a rotating updraft, but the jury is out. Hope that the photos come
out.


Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com

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028

Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 19:29:29 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au]
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: NE NSW T'storms
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

I saw a very nice looking t'storm to my S today, only to find in shock
it was over 200km away!  Initially it only looked weak, but while
sitting on the bus on a jammed up freeway (aren't freeway's meant to
have free-flowing traffic as the name implies?  They seem more like
carparks half the time...) when I saw a very large, and prominent
'explosive like' overshoot from a fairly hard anvil.  However, it was
only from this angle that it looked strong, other times it looked
relatively weak.

It had a maximum peak of 159 strong lightning strikes in 5mins...but is
dying very quickly to only 3 in the last 5mins at the moment.  It
doesn't look that crash hot on the sat pic, which surprised me, as I
would have thought it was fairly high.  It's moving slowly N/NNE
(towards us) but most of them die as they come off the ranges, but we
may see some lightning tonight if we're lucky.  (Actually, if you have a
good advantage point to the S  you should probably be able to
see some)

It's these types of days that keep me curious about NE NSW and SE QLD
t'storms...often scattered t'storms form in these areas from November to
Feb/March...but very few are documented (80-90% +)  I'm certainly
looking forward to my 3 months off (Dec-Feb) next year when I should
hopefully have a car!!

Anthony from Brisbane (7:29pm)

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029

From: "truffles at xenon.net" [truffles at xenon.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Bellenden Ker rainfall in Cyclone Rona
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 21:19:17 +-1000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hey! .. is there ANYTHING else ya all care to bag Telstra for?????? 
.. let's not be shy now.

rals
Brissie

----------
I think Blair they could be telstra workers (theres a big communications
tower on the summit) - i Think thats what I heard.

Document: 990315.htm
Updated: 29 March 1999

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