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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Tuesday, 6 April 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au] SE QLD T'storms
002 "truffles at xenon.net" [truffles at xenon.net] that's it from me!!
003 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Fwd: Re: Tornado Rotation
004 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Fwd: Re: Tornado Rotation
005 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Major rainfall.
006 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] In reply to the humour from Jane,..
007 steve baynham [bayns at nor.com.au] last nights storm
008 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Major rainfall.
009 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au] Tornado Density (Was Tornado Rotation)
010 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Major rainfall.
011 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Major Rain
012 "Matthew Piper" [mjpiper at ozemail.com.au] Easter Rainfall
013 "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au] Severe TC Gwend 930hpa
014 "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au] Vance idiot
015 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Major rainfall.
016 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Fwd: Re: Tornado Rotation
017 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Fwd: Re: Tornado Rotation
018 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au] TC Gwenda
019 "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au] Important News On Insurance MUST READ FOR ALL
020 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Insurance and responsibility
021 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] RE: insurance
022 DavidC at thevortex.com RE: Tornado Rotation
023 "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au] RE: insurance
024 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Rain again???
025 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] 4th Cat 5 off WA this season and hot in Perth
026 Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au] Rain again???
027 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au] Important News On Insurance MUST READ FOR ALL
028 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] RE: Tornado Rotation
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001
Date: Tue, 06 Apr 1999 00:18:55 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au]
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD T'storms
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Hi all,
Some t'storm activity to our S this evening, with a small cell near
Warwick giving Beadesert a nice little run for it's money...lightning
tracker had 181 CG's in 5mins as the max, it's now currently 134 - but
still fluctuating. I saw some of the lightning from here, I could see
the tops of the CG's and also some crawlers, but my view quickly
detoriated as the t'storms moved E'wards. I also got drenched by the
rain from watching the lightning.
I was hoping for something better up here, (ie some thunder + cc
lightning overhead) but it wasn't to happen, and won't unless something
drastic changes.
I won't be surprised if there is anything about damage from the t'storms
tomorrow, but on the other hand, the wx coverage is so poor, anything
that may of happened, could go unreported. It was very similar to some
t'storms previously that were severe, and gave a lot of CG lightning.
Anthony from Brisbane
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002
From: "truffles at xenon.net" [truffles at xenon.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: that's it from me!!
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 01:46:41 +-1000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Well folks, that's about it from me for 5 weeks now!!! I'll be keeping in touch via one of my fellow Brisbanites or three. Hope we do well - the season is certainly off to a banger over there !!!!
onwards n upwards
rals
Brissie via Texas USA.
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003
Date: Mon, 05 Apr 1999 16:08:18 +0100
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 1729776 - note all times in GMT
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fwd: Re: Tornado Rotation
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RODNEY AIKMAN wrote:
Hi everyone,
Certainly, by the articles that I have been reading in the
Royal Meteorological Society's journal 'Weather' recently, Britain has
far more tornados and funnel cloud sightings than I ever realised.
It does, the UK has more tornadoes per unit area than anywhere else in the world with 33 - 40 sightings a year (Fujita) but even though we have a 12 month chase season there are:
(i) no or few supercells :( - tornadoes are usually spawned by cold fronts and line squalls here - in all the years I've been chasing I've only seen one wallcloud and possible beavers tail and that was on a severe multicellular line squall!
(ii) they are fairly weak - T0 - T5 (F0 - 2)
...but we have no free flow of met data here - no friendly BOM or NOAA here - just the Met Office and thats part of the Ministry of Defence.. get my drift... :(
Website for your interest :
http://www.torro.org.uk
and it links the severe aus wx website!!
Keep up the good work everyone may see you in Australia next winter...
Les (videoed the Fraserburgh waterspout [T0 / F0] April, 1998)
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004
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Date: Tue, 06 Apr 1999 08:41:24 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fwd: Re: Tornado Rotation
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi there, Jimmy here,
Imagine the road network, Michael. I think two recent events have driven
the evidence in our favour: the 29th September 1996, and 30th Januray this
year not discluding the system that had lasted a few days. I think that
tornadoes occur in abundance lasting a few seconds to several minutes. The
occasional good one would last much longer but still can go undetected.
I suppose the next few years will see us making a few discoveries of our
own if our assumptions are correct.
Jimmy Deguara
At 21:04 5/04/99 +1000, you wrote:
>It kind of fits my theory of population density, it seems tornado siteings
>are driving the statistics.
>
>Imagine if you had a population density in eastern Australia the same as
>England, not only would we have lots more seen, we would have lots more
>damage. Imagine the Bulahdelah F5 in an area as densely populated as the UK.
>
>Michael
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Kevin Phyland
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Date: Monday, 5 April 1999 17:29
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fwd: Re: Tornado Rotation
>
>
>>Hi every1,
>>
>>Actually, I recall vaguely that England has the most tornadoes per sq.
>>km. (believe it or not, Ripley!)
>>
>>Kevin from Wycheproof.
>>
>>
>>>From: "truffles at xenon.net"
>>>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>>>To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'"
>>>Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fwd: Re: Tornado Rotation
>>>Date: Mon, 5 Apr 1999 11:55:02 +-1000
>>>
>>>Hi all!
>>>
>>>As far as the percentages go, I recall info from a documentary, giving
>>the breakup as - the US with 70% of all tornadoes, with the Bangladesh
>>(forgotten the actual country) area with the next 10%, followed by
>>Australia at 8%, & the remainder split with England and a couple of
>>other small countries..... ???
>>>
>>>rals
>>>Brisbane
>>
>>Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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>> message.
>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
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005
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 08:56:15 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Major rainfall.
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Howdy all - after a wet weekend.
Total rainfall for the first 5 days of April is a whopping 275mm taking
yearly total to 710mm!!
The best of that was 142mm from Miday Thursday til 9am Friday with the best
return rate at 2.2mm per minute sustained for 4 mins!!
Needless to say my place is drenched , wet and very very muddy!
Manning river rose to almost minor flood levels yesterday with a decent
"fresh:" running at the moment. Big tree branches etc are washing
downstream.
Have a good day!
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006
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Date: Tue, 06 Apr 1999 09:15:30 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: In reply to the humour from Jane,..
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Hi Jimmy here,
In reply to the humour from Jane, try the following. These are extracted from the Storm Track Magazine (March-April 1995 Edition page 3) which I subscribe to and in the interests of storm chasers, we do not have to worry about copyright so much....
These are sort of our Ten Commandments
"......Chris Robertson presents the top ten reasons how you can tell if you are a chaser:
10) A beautiful day depresses you.
9) You think the AM radio was invented to detect lightning.
8) You are proud of the hail dents in your vehicle.
7) You can recite dates of every major tornadic storm.
6) Your definition of planned parenthood is "no kids born in spring".
5) You accidently called your mother - mammatus.
4) You always watch the weather channel.
3) When taking family vacations you detour through old damage paths.
2) You know all about Hesston, Texas, Kansas - but can't name the state capital.
1) You can drive with your knees, film, and eat a sandwich - all at the same time. ....."
I like number 8 - he he he hoo hoo ha ha ha.
Now come on guys - admit it. You must at least relate to some of these or you are whimps of storm chasers. It is all in the blood. We cannot help it. We are always full of thousands of excuses just to get around the same thing and boy are we good at fooling others, even each other at times just to get to a storm.
Jimmy Deguara
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
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007
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Date: Tue, 06 Apr 1999 09:10:24 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at nor.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: last nights storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hey all,
well we got a nice storm last night came right over top of us just like
that one a couple of weeks ago, very similar infact, except this time, i
think i got better photos! took a fair few from both here and at pacific
fair. some very nice CG's and shitloads of CC's (mmmmm....corn chips!)
recieved a lot of rain during peak of storm which once again played havok
with the camera!
easter rainfall - 52mm with about 37mm from last night.
just handed the roll to get developed, will get them this arvo, adn will
post them asap!!!
steve from gold coast
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008
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Date: Tue, 06 Apr 1999 09:21:10 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Major rainfall.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
And Paul, I was proud of my 70 - 80mm of rain in the past several days.
Schofields NW Sydney
Date Rainfall
Thursday, 1 April 1999 R 0.6
Friday, 2 April 1999 21.0
Saturday, 3 April 1999 19.2
Sunday, 4 April 1999 24.8
Monday, 5 April 1999 11.2
Tuesday, 6 April 1999 9.4
Jimmy Deguara
At 08:56 6/04/99 +1000, you wrote:
>
>
>Howdy all - after a wet weekend.
>
>Total rainfall for the first 5 days of April is a whopping 275mm taking
>yearly total to 710mm!!
>
>The best of that was 142mm from Miday Thursday til 9am Friday with the best
>return rate at 2.2mm per minute sustained for 4 mins!!
>
>Needless to say my place is drenched , wet and very very muddy!
>
>Manning river rose to almost minor flood levels yesterday with a decent
>"fresh:" running at the moment. Big tree branches etc are washing
>downstream.
>
>Have a good day!
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
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009
Date: Tue, 06 Apr 1999 09:48:16 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado Density (Was Tornado Rotation)
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Hi all,
I think what many people fail to forget is that 74% of all tornadoes
that occur in the US are F0/F1 - this includes a 50m wide, 1km long F0/1
that may have been on the ground for 1 or 2 mins. Only 1% of tornadoes
are violent (F4/F5) in the US, and just quickly off the topic, 67% of
all tornado related deaths occur from F4/F5 which is rather scary when
you think tha 1% of all tornadoes cause 67% of all tornado related
deaths...
But back to what I was saying - we'll often hear about small 'strips' of
damage from a severe thunderstorm. Although many of these are
attributed to microbursts/derecho's I'm also sure that many of these are
actually short lived F0/F1's - but many people do not site the funnel.
Which brings me to another point - in SE QLD/NE NSW many supercells are
HP, in Lousiana area in the US - and surrounding states, there's a much
higher occurence of HPS's then LPS's that occur more frequently in the
Texas/Oklahoma etc area. HPS's are considered much more dangerous
because the funnel of the tornado can rarely be seen until it is too
late, so when you look that this - it's quite plausible to say that many
tornado funnels go unreported, because of the HP factor. I would
imagine that very few people would actually be looking outside for a
tornado, or a funnel - and even if they saw one, they may not even
recognise it! Especially if the condensation funnel doesn't descend
completely to the ground.
I totally agree with the population density theory - if we had a higher
population in Australia, we'd be hearing about a LOT more tornadoes (or
as the media would say "mini tornadoes..." )
The other thing is that most tornadoes occur just outside the major
cities (ie Brisbane/Sydney/Perth etc) and would occur near farmers, many
farmers will talk about a "cock eyed bob" if they saw a tornado - and
would probably never report it. And when you think about it, if a
tornado was to destroy a shed/fences/few trees most farmers would just
say "a bad storm." And again, back to the population density - the
buildings in our countryside are so sparse, that the probability of
being hit by a tornado would most likely be statistically improbable, I
haven't done any mathematical calculations - but I would say that the
possibility would be well under the 5% binomial probability range.
I have no doubt that the US is #1, but I think that Australia has many
more then people think - and I agree with Jimmy, I think we could be in
for a shock now that many more people are actively participating with
storm chases we'll be finding more and more increasing evidence of
tornadoes - and most likely even find some of these elusive, majestic
beasts...
Anthony from Brisbane
Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
> Hi there, Jimmy here,
>
> Imagine the road network, Michael. I think two recent events have driven
> the evidence in our favour: the 29th September 1996, and 30th Januray this
> year not discluding the system that had lasted a few days. I think that
> tornadoes occur in abundance lasting a few seconds to several minutes. The
> occasional good one would last much longer but still can go undetected.
>
> I suppose the next few years will see us making a few discoveries of our
> own if our assumptions are correct.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
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010
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 10:36:04 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Major rainfall.
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Yeah Jimmy....its been wet!!
My break up is as follows:
THursday 12am til 9am: 18mm
12Noon - 9am Friday: 142mm
Friday 9am til Saturday 9am 63.2mm
Saturday 9am til Sunday 9am : 5.2mm
Sunday 9am til Monday 9am : 2mm
Monday 9am til Tuesday 9am: 44.6mm
Total: 275mm
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011
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Date: Tue, 06 Apr 1999 11:28:55 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Major Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
While we are at it, heres my rainfall totals for the past few days here
in Burwood, Sydney :
to 9am Thursday 1 - trace
to 9am Friday 2 - 47mm
to 9am Saturday 3 - 11mm
to 9am Sunday 4 - 16mm
to 9am Monday 5 - 25mm
to 9am Tuesday 6 - 13mm
Total : 112mm
Matthew Smith
ASWA Committee Member
----------Storm Chase Reports and Photos:---------
------http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm-----
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012
From: "Matthew Piper" [mjpiper at ozemail.com.au]
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Easter Rainfall
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 13:21:10 +1000
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Hi Everyone,
Here are my rainfall figures for the Easter Long Weekend.
to 9am Friday 2nd - 27mm
to 9am Saturday 3rd - 8mm
to 9am Sunday 4th - 11mm
to 9am Monday 5th - 26mm
to 9am Tuesday 6th - 9mm
Total: 81mm
Matthew Piper
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013
From: "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au]
To: "aus-wx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Severe TC Gwend 930hpa
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 14:59:03 +1000
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TROPICAL CYCLONE GWENDA ADVICE NUMBER 1
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
ISSUED AT 1.00 PM ON TUESDAY 06 APRIL 1999
=====
A CYCLONE WATCH is now current for coastal areas between Port Hedland
and Exmouth.
At noon today SEVERE CYCLONE GWENDA was estimated to be 600
kilometres north of Karratha and moving southsouthwest at 20
kilometres per hour towards the coast.
The cyclone will continue to track towards the coast in the next 24
hours. It is forecast to move into an unfavorable environment and
should weaken during tomorrow. If the weakening is delayed however,
gales may develop in coastal communities during Wednesday night or
Thursday.
Details of SEVERE CYCLONE GWENDA at noon.
Location of centre Within 30 kilometres of
latitude 15.3 south longitude 117.0 east
Recent movement south southwest at 20 kilometres per hour
Central pressure 930 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts 250 kilometres per hour near the centre
Severity category 4
=====
Communities between Port Hedland and Exmouth should listen for the
next advice which will be issued at 7pm.
This advice is available on the WA tropical cyclone warning service
phone 1300 659 210.
------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html
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014
From: "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vance idiot
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 16:21:47 +1000
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Hello from a soaked (again) Proserpine - 296 mm from 6 am Tues 31st to 6 am
Monday 05 - over 250 mm of this Thursday night and Friday. Has eased to
storms this arvo with a promise of a SE change tomorrow. A few days fine
would be welcome.
Catching up on old mail, I thought to comment on the Vance idiot. A name I
haven't got, but I heard an interview with a New Zealand professional storm
chaser on ABC radio following Vance - he claimed to have done what previous
messages have described, so I assume it was the same bloke.
-----Original Message-----
>James, I agree. I think he should have been sacked from his job for
>incorrect reporting. What a twit.
>
>Now doesn't that really give people a good impression of what to do during
>a cyclone. I wonder how people in the area that lost everything fealt about
>his reporting.... if they got to see it. I think reporters should at least
>have the decency to approach the area with caution and feel sympathetic
>towards people. They are reporting the event, not sensationalise the whole
>situation. And how can have estimated the wind strength????
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
>At 17:31 30/03/99 +1000, you wrote:
>>>On a tangent, did anyone else see the idiot from Channel 7 on 'Media
>>>Watch' last night doing a 'piece to camera' in the middle of Vance
>>>(and ultimately being blown sideways)? I suspect I wasn't alone in
>>>wondering what would happen if he suddenly got decapitated by a piece
>>>of flying corrugated iron...(He also claimed that the winds gusted to
>>>350 km/h - which could conceivably be true on the eastern side of
>>>Exmouth Gulf, but not in Exmouth itself).
>>
>>>Blair Trewin
>>
>>Hi all
>>
>>Yeah the night we all saw that footage we agreed how stupid that person
was.
>>(We were talking about it on IRC) I've got a feeling he was just a little
>>over-excited by the winds. The guy was holding onto some rope, and if he
>>experienced 350km/h gusts, the rope would have broken and he would have
been
>>found a long way away with massive unimaginable injuries (no limbs, gashes
>>etc). He was interviewed on Today Tonight at the time and he said after
he
>>was blown about 50 feet through a courtyard (not on tape) just afterwards
so
>>he thought he'd go inside. He also said he was never scared at any time.
>>His general attitude was one of a "yahoo chaser". The ASWA will do well
to
>>have nobody like him.
>>
>>James Chambers
>>
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>
>---------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
>---------------
>Jimmy Deguara
>Vice President ASWA
>from Schofields, Sydney
>e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
>homepage with Michael Bath
>http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
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015
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Major rainfall.
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 18:02:32 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
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The Illawarra missed the action yet again, most falls in the area were less
than 10mm.
The cloud cleared about 10am, and blue sky teased me all day to the west,
but no storms formed in this. The wind went west early in the day.
Michael
-----Original Message-----
>Howdy all - after a wet weekend.
>
>Total rainfall for the first 5 days of April is a whopping 275mm taking
>yearly total to 710mm!!
>
>The best of that was 142mm from Miday Thursday til 9am Friday with the best
>return rate at 2.2mm per minute sustained for 4 mins!!
>
>Needless to say my place is drenched , wet and very very muddy!
>
>Manning river rose to almost minor flood levels yesterday with a decent
>"fresh:" running at the moment. Big tree branches etc are washing
>downstream.
>
>Have a good day!
>
>
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016
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fwd: Re: Tornado Rotation
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 17:57:35 +1000
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Hi Les
Unfortunately our BOM most senior staff are seeing the UK Met Office as an example to follow. New Zealand is also another ideal that our present government looks too.
You mentioned that you are coming here next winter, is that your winter or ours ? if yours does that mean you may be chasing over here ? I often wonder with the weak Pacific Peso ( Australian Dollar ) why some US and UK chasers have not taken advantage before. Granted we do not get the intensity of tornadoes as the USA, but we get several days each Spring - Summer that have supercells. The last being the 30th January 1999. As for severe storms it is not unusual in the Nov - Feb period for 2 out of every 3 days to have a severe storm warning out somewhere in VIC, NSW or QLD . Mind you we are talking serious kilometres to chase all these, for example from Western Victoria to say the Capricorn coast in Queensland may be 3000km.
Michael
...but we have no free flow of met data here - no friendly BOM or NOAA here - just the Met Office and thats part of the Ministry of Defence.. get my drift... :(
Website for your interest :
http://www.torro.org.uk
and it links the severe aus wx website!!
Keep up the good work everyone may see you in Australia next winter...
Les (videoed the Fraserburgh waterspout [T0 / F0] April, 1998)
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017
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fwd: Re: Tornado Rotation
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 18:00:45 +1000
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That's exactly correct Jimmy, we are talking about a countryside where they
spend 2 -3 days trying to find small planes that crash, now where in the US
mid west would you miss finding a small plane crash.
The majority of tornadoes here are simply not witnessed, or reported.
Michael
-----Original Message-----
>Hi there, Jimmy here,
>
>Imagine the road network, Michael. I think two recent events have driven
>the evidence in our favour: the 29th September 1996, and 30th Januray this
>year not discluding the system that had lasted a few days. I think that
>tornadoes occur in abundance lasting a few seconds to several minutes. The
>occasional good one would last much longer but still can go undetected.
>
>I suppose the next few years will see us making a few discoveries of our
>own if our assumptions are correct.
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
>
>At 21:04 5/04/99 +1000, you wrote:
>>It kind of fits my theory of population density, it seems tornado siteings
>>are driving the statistics.
>>
>>Imagine if you had a population density in eastern Australia the same as
>>England, not only would we have lots more seen, we would have lots more
>>damage. Imagine the Bulahdelah F5 in an area as densely populated as the
UK.
>>
>>Michael
>>
>>
>>
>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: Kevin Phyland
>>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>>Date: Monday, 5 April 1999 17:29
>>Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fwd: Re: Tornado Rotation
>>
>>
>>>Hi every1,
>>>
>>>Actually, I recall vaguely that England has the most tornadoes per sq.
>>>km. (believe it or not, Ripley!)
>>>
>>>Kevin from Wycheproof.
>>>
>>>
>>>>From: "truffles at xenon.net"
>>>>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>>>>To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'"
>>>>Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fwd: Re: Tornado Rotation
>>>>Date: Mon, 5 Apr 1999 11:55:02 +-1000
>>>>
>>>>Hi all!
>>>>
>>>>As far as the percentages go, I recall info from a documentary, giving
>>>the breakup as - the US with 70% of all tornadoes, with the Bangladesh
>>>(forgotten the actual country) area with the next 10%, followed by
>>>Australia at 8%, & the remainder split with England and a couple of
>>>other small countries..... ???
>>>>
>>>>rals
>>>>Brisbane
>>>
>>>Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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>>>
>>
>>
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>
>---------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
>---------------
>Jimmy Deguara
>Vice President ASWA
>from Schofields, Sydney
>e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
>homepage with Michael Bath
>http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
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018
Date: Tue, 06 Apr 1999 18:45:25 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Gwenda
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
Has anyone seen the JTWC models yet???? They have TC Gwenda hitting
land at 170knots - but.....between Exmouth and Onslow!!!
Look at http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/sh3299.gif
It's just one model, and lets hope it wrong...
Anthony from Brisbane
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019
From: "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Important News On Insurance MUST READ FOR ALL
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 19:09:15 +1000
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After the last ASWA meeting, I promised that I would investigate the
Insurance and legal dilemma of storm chasing.
Unfortunately the news is not good.
>From an insurance stand point, I have spoken with a insurance assessor from
the NRMA, we'll call him Mr X.
He said.
" While the issue of storm chasing HAS NOT come up in the past, drivers and
owners should be aware that if any activity is undertaken that is known to
be detrimental to the condition of a car and the owner or driver is aware
of the dangers, insurance claims CAN BE refused."
" A good example is a driver doing wheel spins and crashing into a tree
after slipping on oil. While it can be argued that the driver did not mean
to hit the oil casing the car to slid, he had also excepted the risk
knowing that a car that has the rear wheels spinning is more likely to lose
control then a car being driven in a normal maner. Storm chasing would be
viewed on the same basis. That is that the driver or owner NEW THE RISK
involved in the activity and thus, ACCEPTED THE CONSEQUENCES."
What about for those that travel in the car of a friend on a storm chase.
That news is even worse.
My legal advice came not from Mr X but, well known lawyer Damien Tutor. His
view was not unlike that of Mr X.
"ASSUMED RISK is when the person involved in an activity knows the risk.
They are considered to have excepted the risk involved and are considered
to have been well informed of the danger of the activity." Damien said
To make thing even worse. " If a Storm Chaser was found to have been
negligent and placed a person in even more danger then the activity already
is, they CAN BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE."
" At the very least, your standard Third Party Insurance WILL NOT cover any
loss of life."
" It can get very messy in that the driver or ORGANIZER of the chase could
ague that the passenger in the case had also ASSUMED RISK. Either way, it's
messy."
These are the quotes from the talks that I have had and in no way should be
accepted as LAW. However, I just think you should know this information so
that when you go on a storm chase you can except the ASSUMED RISK.
I would love to hear what any other people could find out from their legal
people.
Paul Mosman, what are your thoughts.
Written with good intentions
Grant Boyden
******************************************
Grant Boyden
http://www.zeta.org.au/~boyden/
http://www.2ky.com.au
******************************************
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020
X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1
Date: Tue, 06 Apr 1999 19:32:01 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Insurance and responsibility
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi everyone, Jimmy here.
Thankyou very much Grant for your research.
It very much verifies what we had discussed in the meeting. I am very much
concerned about the damage part more than anything else. We could avoid the
other situations of personal liability by chasing alone I suppose!!!
Insurance claims of damage would require a little more thought.
Just a thought guys. This verifies my e-mail after the 30th January chase.
I simply don't write e-mails for nothing. These issues will have to be
discussed in our next meetings even though they have been discussed. What I
would like to know is how this would go down in terms of ASWA?? Could you
get special insurance that would cover us in an outing under ASWA??
Jimmy Deguara
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
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021
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: RE: insurance
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 20:08:09 +1000
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As with what Grant has written previously, my questions are designed to
STIMULATE DISCUSSION ONLY. (not to start an argument).
--------------------------------------------------
>" While the issue of storm chasing HAS NOT come up in the past, drivers and
>owners should be aware that if any activity is undertaken that is known to
>be detrimental to the condition of a car and the owner or driver is aware
>of the dangers, insurance claims CAN BE refused."
Question 1: In what way would driving along roads (sealed or unsealed) to
look at / photograph a cloud or storm or associated feature be more
detrimental to the condition of a car than driving to a picnic spot on a
Sunday or to work during the week?
Question 2: Would your standard of driving differ in the two circumstances?
If so, in what way?
=-=-=
>"ASSUMED RISK is when the person involved in an activity knows the risk.
>They are considered to have excepted the risk involved and are considered
>to have been well informed of the danger of the activity." Damien said
Question 3: Do we not accept risk every time we start the car and move off?
Question 4: What is the risk that we might be assuming? Do people see
unusual 'dangers' involved in the activity?
=-=-=
>" It can get very messy in that the driver or ORGANIZER of the chase could
>ague that the passenger in the case had also ASSUMED RISK. Either way, it's
>messy."
Question 5: If a group of people decide that they want to meet, who is then
considered to be 'the organiser'? Does this not become a case of individual
decision making?
It is my understanding from a legal contact in NSW, that ASWA and its
elected representatives and members do not have the *power* to 'instruct'
people where to go - they are able to make suggestions, but the decision
(and therefore the risk) remains with the individual, not with ASWA.
Jane ONeill
ASWA rep - Victoria
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022
From: DavidC at thevortex.com
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: RE: Tornado Rotation
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 05:56:04 -0500
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Hi everyone
I'm probably a bit late adding to this
thread but my email server been stuffed for
a few days.
First with regards to Michael's comments, a
guy I spoke to at Lithgow mentioned a
tornado near Hargraves way which from the
way he spoke was a fair while back..I
wonder if it's the same or perhaps a
different event. On the topic of China of
friend of mine hails :) from Langzhou
(something like that) province which is on
the south inland side of China. He was a
vet over there and mentioned to me some big
hail (in the small watermelon category)
storms in that area some of which killed
pigs b4 the locals got a chance - around
four storms per year he said would produce
smaller hail around golfball size which
would get the pigs squeeling but didn't do
too much damage. He said tornadoes occured
but not that often (bear in mind that in
China at the time people basically lived,
ate and worked in the same building - so
were talking a very small area for these
observations).
Also the comments by the Uni Michigan guy
on tornadoes were interesting. I'm sure
it's nothing new to people on the list that
Mesocyclone / tornado rotation has nothing
to do with the Coriolis force - in
contrast, hurricane<->cyclone rotation is
driven by it.
Tornado rotation is just to do with
prevailing wind profiles which in the
southern hemisphere mid latitudes usually
favours clockwise rotating updrafts. In
splitting supercells the two dual opposing
updrafts rotate in different directions -
the left movers are usually the dominant
cells in the southern hemisphere (and visa
versa in the northern) so they would
generally spawn the stronger
tornadoes....still the right movers under
some situations also drop tornadoes which
in our hemisphere would usually be
anticlockwise (opposite to the parent
updraft).....maybe from Chris Cooke's
desription, the Bearbung tornado in '96 may
have been an example.
As for 2% of world (or US + Australian)
tornadoes lets see what the next 5 years
storm chasing reveals.
David
-----------------
Original Text from ""
>Very interesting, a classic " my .... is bigger than your ... "
>
>It would be hard to even justify 98% of "recorded" as apposed to actual.
>
>His maths also means that the rest of the world = 0%, Bangladesh is one
>country that I know gets severe tornadoes. I truly think that the next
>decade or so will change the map in regard to tornadoes, whilst the US will
>still get the biggest slice I think countries like China, Argentina, South
>Africa ( away from the coast ) will emerge as being areas that are more
>commonly affected than we ever had thought. Take China for example, on the
>scale of natural disasters a tornado would not rate a mention, even locally,
>compared the floods and earth quakes. I believe that supercells are probably
>quite common there in southern parts.
>
>Interesting side note to the Mudgee tornado at Yarrabin, my father was born
>and bred in Hill End and when I told him he recalled a storm that went
>through near the small town of Hargraves ( not far from this last one ), he
>said that it left a narrow path where all trees were snapped or uprooted. He
>remembers walking out to see the damage with other locals.
>
>We are now talking of 1 confirmed and 1 possible tornado within a smal
>radius, thats perhaps 2 tornadoes in an area in 60 years, and that is just
>one example, I bet there are many areas of the slopes that have this
>frequency.
>
>Michael
>
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Jimmy Deguara
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Date: Monday, 5 April 1999 8:57
>Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: Re: Tornado Rotation
>
>
>>Hi everyone,
>>
>>Jimmy here. I had received this e-mail who queried me about rotaion in S
>>and N hemisphere despite me telling him otherwise in an earlier message.
>>Interesting to read this and what the US think of us in terms of tornado
>>production. What do you think Michael Thompson.. Now now calm down there.
>>
>>Jimmy Deguara
>>
>>>From: Angreer1 at aol.com
>>>Date: Sun, 4 Apr 1999 18:39:09 EDT
>>>Subject: Re: Tornado Rotation
>>>To: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
>>>X-Mailer: AOL 3.0 for Windows 95 sub 76
>>>Reply-To: Angreer1 at aol.com
>>>
>>>Hello Jimmy!!!
>>>
>>>Thankyou for the reply. But Im still a bit skeptical of your answer. As
>I
>>>remember it...in a Science/Weather class I took at Central Michigan
>>>University, 98% of tornados occur in the US. The other 2% occur in
>>>Australia. In the Northern hemisphere hurricanes spin clockwise...or to
>the
>>>right. How can tornadoes spin the opposite direction in the same
>hemisphere
>>>as hurricanes when they are essentially similar in nature.
>>>
>>>Also, living in Michigan, I have witnessed 2 huge funnel clouds at
>seperate
>>>times. None of which I have ever seen touch ground...but the massive
>clouds
>>>were spinning in a huge circle clockwise...or to the right.
>>>
>>>Could you give me some feedback?......
>>>
>>>Thanks
>>>
>>>Nick
>>
>>---------------------------------------------------------------------------
>-
>>---------------
>>Jimmy Deguara
>>Vice President ASWA
>>from Schofields, Sydney
>>e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
>>homepage with Michael Bath
>>http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
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>
>
>
>
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023
From: "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: RE: insurance
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 20:57:21 +1000
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> Question 1: In what way would driving along roads (sealed or unsealed) to
> look at / photograph a cloud or storm or associated feature be more
> detrimental to the condition of a car than driving to a picnic spot on a
> Sunday or to work during the week?
>
I don't think it would. My message was more to those that were chasing down
a storm. If you were at a distance and were caught, I would think, in line
with what I was told that you MAY have placed your car in a position of
danger and MAY not get paid.
To answer your question, on a picnic you don't intend to get in the way of
destructive winds or storms where as when you go to take pics of a storm,
you are aware of the danger. It's one you would need to argue in court.
BUT, HOPEFULLY NOT
> Question 2: Would your standard of driving differ in the two
circumstances?
> If so, in what way?
> Question 3: Do we not accept risk every time we start the car and move
off?
Not to that degree I would not think.
> Question 4: What is the risk that we might be assuming? Do people see
> unusual 'dangers' involved in the activity?
No, the ASWA meeting was just looking at it's legal position on the issue.
If ASWA promote or encourage people to storm chase......Well.
> Question 5: If a group of people decide that they want to meet, who is
then
> considered to be 'the organiser'? Does this not become a case of
individual
> decision making?
>
One would think so yes, but,,,,,, make sure that all that attend are aware.
Thats all we are saying
> It is my understanding from a legal contact in NSW, that ASWA and its
> elected representatives and members do not have the *power* to 'instruct'
> people where to go - they are able to make suggestions, but the decision
> (and therefore the risk) remains with the individual, not with ASWA.
>
Thats right, but, we must make sure that the "Understanding" is in BOLD
TYPE.
It's a shame we can not just go out and have fun without a lawyer in the
back seat.
Grantley
IRC : Mini_tornado
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024
X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
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Date: Tue, 06 Apr 1999 21:00:26 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Rain again???
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi every1,
Jimmy here. Just had a brief heavy shower. It came from nowhere. I have
been glued to the computer screen and wasn't watching my back. That doesn't
happen to me it doen't (he says as he cries)
Jimmy Deguara
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
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025
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Date: Tue, 06 Apr 1999 19:10:57 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: 4th Cat 5 off WA this season and hot in Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Gwenda has just became a cat 5 cyclone, the 4th off Western Australia this
season, the others being Thelma, Vance and Frederic.
Also, today's temperature in Perth reached 34.3C, quite hot for April,
there was also some light showers about, it should be in the 30's for the
rest of the week.
PERTH AND METROPOLITAN:
The chance of an evening or overnight thundery shower. Fine tomrrow.
NE winds, an afternoon seabreeze.
TOMORROW'S MIN: 16 MAX: 33
OUTLOOKS FOR PERTH FOR:
THURSDAY: Unsettled. Max 33
FRIDAY: Unsettled. Max 33
SATURDAY: Fine Max 30
TROPICAL CYCLONE GWENDA ADVICE NUMBER 2
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
ISSUED AT 7.00 PM ON TUESDAY 06 APRIL 1999
=====
A CYCLONE WATCH is now current for coastal areas between Port Hedland
and Exmouth.
At 6 pm this evening SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GWENDA was estimated to
be 530 kilometres north of Karratha and moving southsouthwest at 15
kilometres per hour towards the coast.
The cyclone will continue to track towards the coast in the next 24
hours. It is expected to move into a less favorable environment
tomorrow and should slow and begin to weaken.
Gales may develop in coastal communities during tomorrow night or
Thursday depending on the cyclone's speed of movement.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GWENDA at 6 pm.
Location of centre Within 30 kilometres of
latitude 16.0 south longitude 116.6 east
Recent movement south southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
Central pressure 915 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts 290 kilometres per hour near the centre
Severity category 5
=====
Communities between Port Hedland and Exmouth should listen for the
next advice which will be issued at 1 am tomorrow.
Jacob
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026
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Date: Tue, 06 Apr 1999 21:28:11 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain again???
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
At 21:00 6/04/99 , you wrote:
>Hi every1,
>
>Jimmy here. Just had a brief heavy shower. It came from nowhere. I have
>been glued to the computer screen and wasn't watching my back. That doesn't
>happen to me it doen't (he says as he cries)
>
>Jimmy Deguara
It's when you walk outside to find your neighbours roof on your front lawn
and you can't for the life of you work out how it got there that you start
worrying :)
------------------------------------------------------
Chris Maunder Canberra, Australia
Administrator CodeGuru - www.codeguru.com
Technical Consultant Dundas software - www.dundas.com
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027
Date: Tue, 06 Apr 1999 22:01:44 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Important News On Insurance MUST READ FOR ALL
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I personally believe that it'd be very difficult to persuade insurance
companies on this issue. They're unlikely to insure people who will be
taking "high risks" for example storm chasing. Even if people were able
to get covered by insurance by stretching the truth (ie, instead of
storm chasing, you were driving to a relative and then got caught in a
bad thunderstorm) I'm sure that insurance companies would very soon wise
up about this, especially with ASWA. But this is in regards to storm
related damage (ie hail/large branches on car etc)
In regards to a car accident - I
don't see how an insurance company would refuse a claim for being in an
accident while storm chasing - *providing* you are not in the storm at
the present. One could easily say they were having a leisure ride with
friends, and technically it could be quite true. However I'm sure
insurance companies could pick up on the "nitty gritty" here.
With being liable for others - this becomes rather more complicated,
perhaps all I can say is that ensure you chase with people you know well
to ensure this won't happen.
But really - when you think about it, when you storm chase you take the
risks of such things - and there's no if/no/but about it. If you take
your car, then you're responsible for any damage that occurs to it -
remember, you had the opportunity to stop/take shelter long before! The
same with being passangers, when you are the passanger, you trust the
driver, and remember, the driver is putting his own car at risk here!
If something happens to the passanger, then again, they have to accept
this as one of the possible consequences of storm chasing. There are
ways to try and avoid this of course...if you're the driver and are not
prepared to have your car hail damaged, inform the others before the
chase and tell them straight out that you do not want your car to be
hail damaged and that you don't wish to be pressured into going into
such a situation. And if you're the passanger and you feel
uncomfortable with the driver, there is nothing stopping you from
getting out of the car and finding alternative transport back home - it
may sound drastic, but there are ways around this. But this is why it's
good/important to chase with people who you know rather then complete
strangers.
What am I trying to say here? Basically this - Storm Chasing can be and
is dangerous, and by participating in a storm chase, you accept these
risks. And if you're not willing to accept these risks, then one should
not participate in storm chasing. Of course it is all very unlikely
that something 'bad' would happen, but there is always the risk - and if
such an event as mentioned above were to happen then this was one of the risks that you had
accepted and had full prior knowledge to. There are a plethora of risks
in storm chasing - perhaps we (ASWA) can outline such risks on a
webpage?
Anthony Cornelius
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028
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: RE: Tornado Rotation
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 23:21:32 +1000
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Thanks for your comments David, the Hargraves damage would have been in the
1930's some time, so we are talking a long way back. Interesting enough my
in my fathers 15 years at Hill End he said he never saw very large hail. On
the other hand snowfalls were often heavy, so much more than what seems to
be the case today.
Hail the size of small watermelons in China ! we are talking serious stuff,
only a supercell could produce goodies like that.
Michael
>
>First with regards to Michael's comments, a
>guy I spoke to at Lithgow mentioned a
>tornado near Hargraves way which from the
>way he spoke was a fair while back..I
>wonder if it's the same or perhaps a
>different event. On the topic of China of
>friend of mine hails :) from Langzhou
>(something like that) province which is on
>the south inland side of China. He was a
>vet over there and mentioned to me some big
>hail (in the small watermelon category)
>storms in that area some of which killed
>pigs b4 the locals got a chance - around
>four storms per year he said would produce
>smaller hail around golfball size which
>would get the pigs squeeling but didn't do
>too much damage. He said tornadoes occured
>but not that often (bear in mind that in
>China at the time people basically lived,
>ate and worked in the same building - so
>were talking a very small area for these
>observations).
>
>Also the comments by the Uni Michigan guy
>on tornadoes were interesting. I'm sure
>it's nothing new to people on the list that
>Mesocyclone / tornado rotation has nothing
>to do with the Coriolis force - in
>contrast, hurricane<->cyclone rotation is
>driven by it.
>
>Tornado rotation is just to do with
>prevailing wind profiles which in the
>southern hemisphere mid latitudes usually
>favours clockwise rotating updrafts. In
>splitting supercells the two dual opposing
>updrafts rotate in different directions -
>the left movers are usually the dominant
>cells in the southern hemisphere (and visa
>versa in the northern) so they would
>generally spawn the stronger
>tornadoes....still the right movers under
>some situations also drop tornadoes which
>in our hemisphere would usually be
>anticlockwise (opposite to the parent
>updraft).....maybe from Chris Cooke's
>desription, the Bearbung tornado in '96 may
>have been an example.
>
>As for 2% of world (or US + Australian)
>tornadoes lets see what the next 5 years
>storm chasing reveals.
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| Document: 990406.htm
Updated: 13 April 1999 |
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