From                                           Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]      Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist on Peril in the S
002 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist on Peril in the 
003 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist on Peril in the S
004 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]        F6 etc...
005 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
006 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]      F6 etc...
007 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]      Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist on Peril in the 
008 David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com]              F6 etc...
009 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]                 Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist on
010 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]         Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
011 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           F6 / T8 etc...
012 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]         Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
013 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]      Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
014 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]      Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001

Date: Sun, 09 May 1999 07:45:49 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
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Subject: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist on Peril in the Sunshine 
 State" - Sunday Mail QLD
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,

Well - I believe this is an interesting article, so I thought that I'd
type it out for all to read.  I guess it's nothing that we didn't
already know, but it's good to see this sort of thing in the paper,
attracting attetnion.

Article starts here:

Queensland is a mecca for tornadoes but our sparse population means many
go unrecoded.  Evidence of a tornado was found in a remote area of the
Sunshine Coast hinterland earlier this year.

Jeff Callaghan, the Bureau of Meteorology severe weather expert, said
loggers discovered the tornado's path some months afterwards.  It is
believed the tornado swept through the area in late November.

Australia is ranked second behind the United States as a tornado risk -
but just has a tenth of the US's twisters.

The same conditions were not replicated in Queensalnd, but Mr Callaghan
said the state suffered its fair share of severe storms and twisters. 
"You can get really bad tornadoes in south-east Queensland and there's
probably more than people realise."

The worst in recent memory was a 200m wide twister that devasted parts
of Brisbane in 1973.  It swept from the west and carved a 50km path of
destruction.  Shocked residents found 500 buildings unroofed, almost
1400 damaged and 500 declared structually unsafe.

Seven severe storms - some including tornadoes - were recorded in the
region last year.

Mr Callaghan said it was believed many more twisters occurred in the
state but because there were no witnesses, they were not recorded.

The basic difference between a tornado and cyclone is one of
dimensions.  "A tornado is the size of a large football field, while a
cyclone is the size a city," Mr Callaghan said.

Tornadoes concentrate extremely high wind speeds into small areas.  They
need certain specific condtions to occur, including hot air rising from
the surface, with cold air above and winds increasing height.

Building regulations are strigent in the 50km-wide high cyclone risk
strip along Queensland's north coast as far south as Bundaberg.  Houses
must be able to withstand winds of 252km/h - a category four cyclone.

John Hockings, senior lecturer in University of Queensland's
architecture department, said high-set Queenslander homes were quite
effective in withstanding high winds.

Their raised level of minimised resistance, the timber frame had more
give than bricks, and a tin roof was less likely to fly off than tiles.
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002

Date: Sat, 08 May 1999 22:21:27 +0100
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 1729776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.51 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist on Peril in the 
 Sunshine State" - Sunday Mail QLD
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Anthony Cornelius wrote:

> Hi all,
>
> Well - I believe this is an interesting article, so I thought that I'd
> type it out for all to read.  I guess it's nothing that we didn't
> already know, but it's good to see this sort of thing in the paper,
> attracting attetnion.
>

The aus-wx website does a better job - in my estimation Australia, in
particular NSW, seems to be on a fairly equal footing with the US as regards
severe weather... thats why we r going to Oz and not the US... Anyhow you
don't get beaches and surf in Oklahoma or Texas (:


>
> Tornadoes concentrate extremely high wind speeds into small areas.  They
> need certain specific condtions to occur, including hot air rising from
> the surface, with cold air above and winds increasing height.
>

Surely this a supercell recipe - not all supercells spawn tornadoes??? I'd
argue about this one! Tornadoes can be caused by regular thunderstorms and
frontal storms with or without  without wind shear - at least in the UK.


Les

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003

From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist on Peril in the Sunshine State" - Sunday Mail QLD
Date: Sun, 9 May 1999 17:22:09 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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I perhaps would not go that far, I think we are possibly on par with SE
USA - the Carolina's, Georgia, and those states just east of the
Mississippi.

Although some hot spots such as NW plains and Darling Downs may push that a
bit.

Regards
Michael
>
> The aus-wx website does a better job - in my estimation Australia, in
> particular NSW, seems to be on a fairly equal footing with the US as
regards
> severe weather... thats why we r going to Oz and not the US... Anyhow you
> don't get beaches and surf in Oklahoma or Texas (:
>
>



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004

X-Originating-Ip: [203.25.186.112]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: F6 etc...
Date: Sun, 09 May 1999 00:38:34 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi every1,

the unfortunate Oklahoma outbreak has raised a couple of points that have 
been nagging me for quite a while.

During the inevitable post-mortems (definitely no pun intended) the prospect 
of F6+ tornadoes was mentioned. I'm quite prepared to believe that they 
exist and even up to Mach 1 wind-speeds!!

However, I recall another scale for tornadoes called the Torro (?) scale as 
well. Can anybody enlighten me as to whether this scale is an "official" 
scale and if so, what it's based on?

I believe that the Fujita scale may be (real hubris here) fundamentally 
flawed if it only relies on damage...

Just a thought,

Kevin from Wycheproof.


______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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005

From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
Date: Sun, 9 May 1999 17:37:17 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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Quite a difference in the MRF and NGP models. Whilst both have SE Queensland
getting a soaking, the MRF then continues the rain down along the NSW coast
over Wed - Thur, even Sydney and the Illawarra, with the low heading down
close to coast. NGP extends a bigger area of rain across into the Darling
Downs initially, but then takes the low quickly SE across the Tasman to dump
on NZ, with NGP the rainfall never gets much south of say Coffs Harbour.

I have my hopes on MRF, but if I had to put money on it I certainly would
not putting too much.


Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com


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006

Date: Sun, 09 May 1999 18:17:47 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: F6 etc...
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Hi Kevin,

The 'TORRO' scale is an "official" scale, from my understanding, it's
used in Europe.  I don't mind the TORRO scale, as there's no "high F3
damage" because the levels in between different intensities (T6, T7 etc)
are much smaller.

Goto http://www.torro.org.uk/tnintens.htm for more information.

Anthony

Kevin Phyland wrote:
> 
> Hi every1,
> 
> the unfortunate Oklahoma outbreak has raised a couple of points that have
> been nagging me for quite a while.
> 
> During the inevitable post-mortems (definitely no pun intended) the prospect
> of F6+ tornadoes was mentioned. I'm quite prepared to believe that they
> exist and even up to Mach 1 wind-speeds!!
> 
> However, I recall another scale for tornadoes called the Torro (?) scale as
> well. Can anybody enlighten me as to whether this scale is an "official"
> scale and if so, what it's based on?
> 
> I believe that the Fujita scale may be (real hubris here) fundamentally
> flawed if it only relies on damage...
> 
> Just a thought,
> 
> Kevin from Wycheproof.
> 
> ______________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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007

Date: Sun, 09 May 1999 18:33:23 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist on Peril in the 
 Sunshine State" - Sunday Mail QLD
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Michael and all,

I guess it comes down to what the definition of a 'true' tornado is,
certainly if it's supercellular tornadoes, then I think your comparison
is quite right.  However, I personally believe that NE NSW, and SE QLD
are certainly a good hot spot area for tornadoes, especially slightly
inland of the coast (where temperature and moisture are at its maximum
potential).  There are many thunderstorms that appear very strong on
radar, and also last for a relatively long time frame, however the
population density here is so low, that an entire thunderstorm could go
through an area, and only knock down a few trees, and maybe the odd shed
- where as in metropolitan Brisbane - the same storm would cause
millions of dollars worth of damage.

While at a 'meeting' wtih Jeff C on Wednesday, I asked about the '73
tornado - CAPE at 9am was 3127, SRH was around 500.  Which is certainly
very significant!!!  I asked him when another event like this could
happen, and he said "it has probably already happened, just not right
here."  For more general interest, he was also telling me how Chuck
Doswell actually commented on how surprised he was to observe such high
CAPE's in SE QLD - this mainly due to the very high amounts of moisture
we are fortunate (unfortunate?) enough to have here.

There are certainly other little hot spots in Australia, SW WA is
certainly no stranger to tornadoes (as Ira so commonly reminds us in
#Weather ).  And certainly, much of the eastern coast is quite
suceptable (spelling!) to tornadoes.

I believe that I've mentioned this before, but I would DIE to storm
chase in central to southern QLD during an upper level low.  Especially
with -8 and -9 LI's forecasted, and their high temperatures (high 30's,
low 40's) and also - their DP's still get into the high teens, which
again, is quite high.  I think Charleville had 90km/h winds on one of
these days...and they were lucky to only receive 90km/h!  On another
day, a town of Hebel(?) received winds estimated well in excess of
200km/h - a rain recorder for the BoM actually faxed in a diagram to the
BoM of what he saw, and there were no prizes for guessing what it was he
saw!  Especially with the words like  "dark
funnel-like cloud rotating and touching the ground" I believe he also
observed debris too...but again, don't quote me on that one!

I'm quite sure there are other hotspots too (possibly in Vic) and I
believe parts of SA are certainly no stranger to severe thunderstorms.

Anthony Cornelius

Michael Thompson wrote:
> 
> I perhaps would not go that far, I think we are possibly on par with SE
> USA - the Carolina's, Georgia, and those states just east of the
> Mississippi.
> 
> Although some hot spots such as NW plains and Darling Downs may push that a
> bit.
> 
> Regards
> Michael
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008

Date: Sun, 9 May 1999 02:17:40 -0700 (PDT)
From: David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: F6 etc...
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> Kevin Phyland wrote:
> > During the inevitable post-mortems (definitely no
> pun intended) the prospect
> > of F6+ tornadoes was mentioned. I'm quite prepared
> to believe that they
> > exist and even up to Mach 1 wind-speeds!!

I also think this is the case Kevin...but I imagine that they would be
so very rare and, given what F5 tornadoes do, I suppose higher
categories wouldn't have too much practical significance. Still it
would be interesting to get direct windspeed measurements for these
beasts. 
 
> > However, I recall another scale for tornadoes
> called the Torro (?) scale as
> > well. Can anybody enlighten me as to whether this
> scale is an "official"
> > scale and if so, what it's based on?
> > 
> > I believe that the Fujita scale may be (real
> hubris here) fundamentally
> > flawed if it only relies on damage...

I think T scale is flawed in the same way as the F scale but it
provides a bit finer (on paper that is) resolution. As written in David
Sargeants book:
T0 - light tornado 63-87 km/h (loose litter raised from ground in
spirals, tents disturbed, most exposed tiles on roofs dislodged
.....you get the picture)
T1 - mild tornado 88-116 km/h
T2 - moderate tornado 117-148 km/h
T3 - strong tornado 149-184 km/h
T4 - severe tornado 185-219 km/h
T5 - intense tornado 220-258 km/h
T6 - moderately devastating tornado 259-300 km/h
T7 - strongly-devastating tornado 301-341 km/h
T8 - severely-devastating tornado 342-386 km/h
T9 - intensely-devastating tornado 387-433 km/h
T10 - super tornado 434-481km/h.....entire frame houses and similar
buildings lifted bodily from foundations and carried some distances.
Steel-reinforced concrete buildings may be severely damaged.


cheers

David
_________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get your free  at yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com

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009

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Date: Sun, 09 May 1999 05:52:42 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting Newspaper Article - "New Twist on
  Peril in the  Sunshine State" - Sunday Mail QLD
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Well eheheheh hum,
			I certainley hope you are'nt all forgetting wonderfull WA, the tornado
capital of Australia ( most people on the list were probably wondering when
this mail would come!!!! hehehheeh) Just thought I'd remind you all that WA
has had approximately 150 Tornadoes since 1955. Of the 150 tornadoes
recorded Perth and its surrounding area down to Mandurah accounts for 55 or
one third of the states records. We know that Perth doesn�t take up one
third of the state's land mass. So obviously with the large population
density in Perth tornadoes damage does'nt go unnoticed. Studies in the US
show that a population density of 100 to 200 people per square mile is
needed to gain accurate tornado numbers. The 1986 census showed that the SW
of WA has a population density of 10 people per square mile. The only
areas, which have the required density to gain accurate numbers, are the
Perth, Mandurah and Bunbury areas. If you take the number of tornado
occurrences in these areas and divide it by the number of square miles that
recieve the same weather you obtain a figure for tornadoes per square
miles. Then apply this figure to the remaining square miles from Busselton
to Lancelin and a figure of 6 tornadoes a year is gained. This would equate
to 250 tornadoes for this section of coast for the years 1955-1996. Little
alone inland WA. I would conservatively say that this figure is more likely
to be around 400+ tornadoes for WA since 1954.

Mandurah seems to be our tornado capital with a remarkable 9 tornadoes in
the space of 33 years.  However these were directly on the town of
Mandurah, if you include the area about 15k's north (i.e. Safety Bay,
Shoalwater Bay and Rockingham) the figure is 18 in 33 years! With 7 of
these being either F-2 or F-3. This is a higher density figure then almost
any other place in the world!

As far as outbreaks go WA has had its fair share. In fact we have has 12
days since 1960 in which there was 2 tornadoes on the same day, 7 days with
3 tornadoes 2 days in which there was 4, one day last September in which
there was 5 and on the 6th of June just gone we had 7 tornadoes in 36hrs!! 

Just thought I'd post it for those who dont already know :) 

									Ira Fehlberg


At 22:21 8/05/99 +0100, you wrote:
>
>
>Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>
>> Hi all,
>>
>> Well - I believe this is an interesting article, so I thought that I'd
>> type it out for all to read.  I guess it's nothing that we didn't
>> already know, but it's good to see this sort of thing in the paper,
>> attracting attetnion.
>>
>
>The aus-wx website does a better job - in my estimation Australia, in
>particular NSW, seems to be on a fairly equal footing with the US as regards
>severe weather... thats why we r going to Oz and not the US... Anyhow you
>don't get beaches and surf in Oklahoma or Texas (:
>
>
>>
>> Tornadoes concentrate extremely high wind speeds into small areas.  They
>> need certain specific condtions to occur, including hot air rising from
>> the surface, with cold air above and winds increasing height.
>>
>
>Surely this a supercell recipe - not all supercells spawn tornadoes??? I'd
>argue about this one! Tornadoes can be caused by regular thunderstorms and
>frontal storms with or without  without wind shear - at least in the UK.
>
>
>Les
>
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>
>
>

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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010

Date: Sun, 09 May 1999 20:13:26 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Has anyone looked at the GASP prognosis for next Saturday 15th which
shows
a surface low forming over inland NSW..hopefully some heavy rain?

Michael Thompson wrote:
> 
> Quite a difference in the MRF and NGP models. Whilst both have SE Queensland
> getting a soaking, the MRF then continues the rain down along the NSW coast
> over Wed - Thur, even Sydney and the Illawarra, with the low heading down
> close to coast. NGP extends a bigger area of rain across into the Darling
> Downs initially, but then takes the low quickly SE across the Tasman to dump
> on NZ, with NGP the rainfall never gets much south of say Coffs Harbour.
> 
> I have my hopes on MRF, but if I had to put money on it I certainly would
> not putting too much.
> 
> Michael Thompson
> http://thunder.simplenet.com
> 
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011

Date: Sun, 09 May 1999 10:25:22 +0100
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.51 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: F6 / T8 etc...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Kevin Phyland wrote:

> Hi every1,
>
> However, I recall another scale for tornadoes called the Torro (?) scale as
> well. Can anybody enlighten me as to whether this scale is an "official"
> scale and if so, what it's based on?
>

http:www.torro.org.uk

will take you there - The Torro Scale is the official UK / European scale and is
a measure of wind SPEED and the damage it causes as opposed to a DAMAGE scale -
and is  more flexible than the Fujita Scale - so T3-4 is quite acceptable as
would T3 1/2 (it's calculated mathematically).


When I get to Oz I'll try to use the Fujita scale when we see these tornadoes
everyone reports, though as its the F-scale that has more worldwide acceptance I
don't think anywone would know if i said T10.... The Torro Scale can also be
used to calculate the windspeeds of dust devils, etc.

Chuck Doswell's home page (don't know URL) has a detailed discussion of the
limitations of the Fujita Scale in it somewhere!

Les

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012

Date: Sun, 09 May 1999 20:28:23 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Further to this, why does the US Tropical southwest pacific forecast for
the same day show a high over NSW? The GASP one was issued 23UTC on 8th
May, the US one (FNMOC)0933UTC on the 9th.They can't both be right....if
I'm losing my marbles would someone please politely inform me...

Keith Barnett wrote:
> 
> Has anyone looked at the GASP prognosis for next Saturday 15th which
> shows
> a surface low forming over inland NSW..hopefully some heavy rain?
> 
> Michael Thompson wrote:
> >
> > Quite a difference in the MRF and NGP models. Whilst both have SE Queensland
> > getting a soaking, the MRF then continues the rain down along the NSW coast
> > over Wed - Thur, even Sydney and the Illawarra, with the low heading down
> > close to coast. NGP extends a bigger area of rain across into the Darling
> > Downs initially, but then takes the low quickly SE across the Tasman to dump
> > on NZ, with NGP the rainfall never gets much south of say Coffs Harbour.
> >
> > I have my hopes on MRF, but if I had to put money on it I certainly would
> > not putting too much.
> >
> > Michael Thompson
> > http://thunder.simplenet.com
> >
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013

Date: Sun, 09 May 1999 20:51:08 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Keith,

I can't say that I hold a very high opinion of GASP at all - especially
on the longer range situations.  Certainly, it tends to be somewhat
'extreme' at times, and reminds me of MRF, it's not too bad for the
first 72hrs, but after that it starts telling you fictional stories....

This is just my personal opinion of GASP as a model, that's all - I'd be
going with NGP, especially since EC is doing what NGP is doing.

However, you have to remember, that the models are just a computer
generated forecast, and especially at 7 days out, can do many strange
and wonderful things!  Don't you love chaos? :)

Anthony

Keith Barnett wrote:
> 
> Further to this, why does the US Tropical southwest pacific forecast for
> the same day show a high over NSW? The GASP one was issued 23UTC on 8th
> May, the US one (FNMOC)0933UTC on the 9th.They can't both be right....if
> I'm losing my marbles would someone please politely inform me...
> 
> Keith Barnett wrote:
> >
> > Has anyone looked at the GASP prognosis for next Saturday 15th which
> > shows
> > a surface low forming over inland NSW..hopefully some heavy rain?
> >
> > Michael Thompson wrote:
> > >
> > > Quite a difference in the MRF and NGP models. Whilst both have SE Queensland
> > > getting a soaking, the MRF then continues the rain down along the NSW coast
> > > over Wed - Thur, even Sydney and the Illawarra, with the low heading down
> > > close to coast. NGP extends a bigger area of rain across into the Darling
> > > Downs initially, but then takes the low quickly SE across the Tasman to dump
> > > on NZ, with NGP the rainfall never gets much south of say Coffs Harbour.
> > >
> > > I have my hopes on MRF, but if I had to put money on it I certainly would
> > > not putting too much.
> > >
> > > Michael Thompson
> > > http://thunder.simplenet.com
> > >
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> > >  message.
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
014

Date: Sun, 09 May 1999 22:45:19 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Queensland / NSW Depression Prospects
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Michael,

I've been looking at this situation with interest for a long time, and
as I feared, the models certainly turned away from the 'bombing' of the
low off us, however they still have it intensifying somewhat.  The upper
level system in this is amazing...the 700mb VV's are forecasted to be
-80 during Tuesday!!!  That's to our ESE (where our winds will be coming
from) and while AVN has been all over the place, it's starting to
stabilize a little now, and on Tuesday 00z is saying our VV's over us
will be around -40 to -45 (overall average of all forecasts). 
Certainly, no shortage of moisture over us, 80%+ RH up to 500mb.  I do
not know what our vorticities will be (except from MRF) as I cannot
access the AVN raw data site as it's down, the same for LI's, and I also
rely on one of the variables it gives, to do CAPE extrapolations.

AVN has a cold pool of air sitting just to the W of us, and quite a
tight isothermal gradient over us is expected...if that cold pool of air
were to move E, near the low - and mix with those incredible VV's, I
think we'd be seeing some major damage here...but that's a rather
unlikely situation.

Certainly...Monday pm to Tuesday should be very interesting, with some
flash flooding possible (IMO) and depending on this low, some gales?

Wednesday is also proving to be possibly interesting, with the low
sitting over us, but directing NE winds over us...with -10 VV's, and if
the cloud clears, we could be seeing some thunderies.  However - with
this entire situation, the models have had a horrible grip on it,
changing with every model run, and I have to say that anything could
really happen...any thoughts?

Anthony from Brisbane

Michael Thompson wrote:
> 
> Quite a difference in the MRF and NGP models. Whilst both have SE Queensland
> getting a soaking, the MRF then continues the rain down along the NSW coast
> over Wed - Thur, even Sydney and the Illawarra, with the low heading down
> close to coast. NGP extends a bigger area of rain across into the Darling
> Downs initially, but then takes the low quickly SE across the Tasman to dump
> on NZ, with NGP the rainfall never gets much south of say Coffs Harbour.
> 
> I have my hopes on MRF, but if I had to put money on it I certainly would
> not putting too much.
> 
> Michael Thompson
> http://thunder.simplenet.com
> 
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