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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Friday, 14 May 1999 |
From Subject
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001 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Heavy Rainfall in the Pilbara and Exmouth flooded again
002 "Parker, Debbie L" [dlp64129 at GlaxoWellcome.co SE QLD Wx
003 "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au] SE QLD Wx
004 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Aussie-weather guidelines
005 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Upper Blue Mountains = Chilly...
006 "Nick Sykes" [nsykes at labyrinth.net.au] Cold Outbreak and gales in Melbourne
007 "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au] Upper Blue Mountains = Chilly...
008 Blair Trewin [blair at met.unimelb.edu.au] Cold Outbreak and gales in Melbourne
009 "Parker, Debbie L" [dlp64129 at GlaxoWellcome.co Cold Outbreak and gales in Melbourne
010 Chas & Helen Osborn [hosborn at tassie.net.au] West Coast observations
011 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au West Coast observations
012 "Daniel Weatherhead" [dpw14 at hotmail.com] Sydney BoM weathers inquiry:)
013 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Southern circumpolar wave
014 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Sydney BoM weathers inquiry:)
015 Michael_Bath at amp.com.au Sydney Obs 11.30am / cloud colours
016 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Southern circumpolar wave
017 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Severe weather page from the BoM for those interested
018 "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au] Sydney BoM weathers inquiry:)
019 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Severe weather page from the BoM for those interested
020 Chas & Helen Osborn [hosborn at tassie.net.au] West Coast observations
021 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au West Coast observations
022 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Sydney BoM weathers inquiry:)
023 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Sydney BoM weathers inquiry:)
024 "Nick Sykes" [nsykes at labyrinth.net.au] Cold Outbreak
025 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] SE QLD wx + Pictures
026 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Sydney BoM weathers inquiry:)
027 "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] $4.8million to Bureau of Meteorology...
028 "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] Detailed Report on Sydney Hailstorm..
029 "bernette hudson" [bernette at primus.com.au] May i have some help
030 Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au] aswa on the web at oklahoma uni
031 disarm at braenet.com.au bens photos
032 "McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au] Melbourne cold weather
033 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] May i have some help-possible help from Jimmy
034 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Detailed Report on Sydney Hailstorm..
035 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au] (no subject)
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001
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Rainfall in the Pilbara and Exmouth flooded again
Date: Thu, 13 May 1999 15:52:07 GMT
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This was quite a remarkable event! Barrow Island AWS recorded over 10
inches in under 12 hours, with 143.4mm falling in just 2 hours between
5 and 7am local time on the 13th. Unfortunately, the AWS doesn't seem
to have sent in a 9am report, but its 8am cumulative total was 199.2
(all falling since just before 4am), and a further 67.0mm was recorded
to 3pm -- total 266.2 in just over 11 hours! Pretty good convergence
line!
After a period of inactivity brought on by overwork, I've resumed
writing up weather news on my site, and there are some more
interesting stats there.
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
On Thu, 13 May 1999 11:49:52 +0800, "Jason"
wrote:
>Hey All
>The cloud band that has been hanging around off the west coast has finally started to move eastward and make the weather interesting up here.
>The Exmouth area recived 58mm from one storm last night and caused some flooding in the town which is still recovering from Vance.....story as follows..
>
>The town of Exmouth, which is still recovering from the devastation caused by Cyclone Vance, has been inundated with heavy rain overnight which has flooded parts of the town.
>
> The Bureau of Meteorology says more than 57 millimetres of rain has fallen on the town overnight, but the rain is easing.
>
> Exmouth resident, Grant Whittaker, told the ABC's Graeme Powell most of the homes in his street are flooded.
>
> "Well, overnight there has been very heavy rain," Mr Whittaker said.
>
> "Overnight we've just regressed by eight weeks."
>
> WA Local Government Minister, Paul Omodei, is due to arrive in Exmouth today to inspect recovery work undertaken since Cyclone Vance hit the town.
>
> Also We have a Flood threat advice current for the Pilbara coastal streams...
>
> FLOOD THREAT ADVICE for the Pilbara District Bureau of Meteorology Flood Warning
> Centre Perth Issued at 1055 hours on Thursday, 13/05/99 A convergence line is
> bringing areas of heavy rainfall to the Pilbaradistrict, in particular, the
> lower reaches of Fortescue River andadjacent streams. Rainfall reports of 20mm
> have been reported inthe 6 hours to 9am today. The highest rainfall has been
> reportedoff the Pilbara coast at Barrow Island with 200mm in 4 hours.
>
> The rainfall is expected to continue for the next 24 hours withareas of local
> flooding. Flash flooding may also be expected.Motorist are urged to use extreme
> caution when crossing flooded roadsand causeways. For up to date reports on the
> conditions of roadsfrom Main Roads WA .... ring 1800 013 314.This advice is
> current until 5pm Thursday 13 May.
>
>My forcast is looking good :)
>
>UPDATED KARRATHA:Showers, heavy at times with the risk of a thunderstorm.E'ly winds, tending N/NW in the afternoon. MAX TEMP: 26
>
>Currently 26.5C
>Overcast RH 41% DP 12.2
>Wind light Easterly
>Jason Aka JuNgLeJiM
>Karratha W.A
>http://www.kisser.net.au/kevans/weather/
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002
From: "Parker, Debbie L" [dlp64129 at GlaxoWellcome.co.uk]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SE QLD Wx
Date: Thu, 13 May 1999 22:22:37 +0100
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Nandina,
On Tuesday I was driving around Ferntree Gully Rd /Stud Rd ( sorry
non-Melbournites) & I was fascinated by the clouds too - didn't see the
iridescence unfortunately but I was desperately trying to find a good spot
to take a photo. There were some unusual clouds around. I was mainly aiming
to take a photo of the lenticular shaped clouds that appeared to be over Mt
Dandenong. Unfortunately by the time I got to a good spot they had
dispersed. :-((
Regards,
Debbie
[ ]
> On Tuesday and again yesterday, I saw patches of cloud, cirrus and
> 'wind-swept'
> (trivia insert: me to 2and a half Ethan. The clouds look as if they've
> been swept. Him to me: Yes, dey ave. De little little birdies sweep dem.
> Dey stwetch dere wings and go tweep tweep and dere fevvers sweep de
> clouds. end trivia).
> Anyway - there were what looked like 2 dimensional clouds, as if someone
> had torn a corner of white paper, and stuck it to the sky. Several small
> patches like that. And 2 that I was looking at had fine pink and pale
> green edgings.
> I eliminated several possible causes, but even after rounding a bend and
> having these clouds in a different visual frame, the pink and green
> colours were still there. Other small clouds close by, on the same
> horizontal plane had no colour. I was enchanted by the delicate
> colouring, nearly went into the back of 2 vehicles as I meandered up Stud
> Rd looking at clouds :-o
>
> This is something I have never noticed before. Can someone tell me how
> this colouring occurs?
>
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003
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE QLD Wx
Date: Fri, 14 May 99 08:12:35 PDT
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Debbie - yes, those clouds were great. If you ever want to find a high spot, try travelling along Stud Rd to Wellington Road. Then up Wellington (towards the city). On the corner of Jacksons, which is my approach route to Wellington, I get great views, and you can probably pull into the Pitch & Putt golf thingy almost opposite the intersection, on the North side of Wellington. I have seen some magnificent fog ribbons swirling among hills and vales there.
Cheers,
Nandina
nandina at alphalink.com.au
----------
> Nandina,
> On Tuesday I was driving around Ferntree Gully Rd /Stud Rd ( sorry
> non-Melbournites) & I was fascinated by the clouds too - didn't see the
> iridescence unfortunately but I was desperately trying to find a good spot
> to take a photo. There were some unusual clouds around. I was mainly aiming
> to take a photo of the lenticular shaped clouds that appeared to be over Mt
> Dandenong. Unfortunately by the time I got to a good spot they had
> dispersed. :-((
>
> Regards,
> Debbie
> [ ]
> > On Tuesday and again yesterday, I saw patches of cloud, cirrus and
> > 'wind-swept'
> > (trivia insert: me to 2and a half Ethan. The clouds look as if they've
> > been swept. Him to me: Yes, dey ave. De little little birdies sweep dem.
> > Dey stwetch dere wings and go tweep tweep and dere fevvers sweep de
> > clouds. end trivia).
> > Anyway - there were what looked like 2 dimensional clouds, as if someone
> > had torn a corner of white paper, and stuck it to the sky. Several small
> > patches like that. And 2 that I was looking at had fine pink and pale
> > green edgings.
> > I eliminated several possible causes, but even after rounding a bend and
> > having these clouds in a different visual frame, the pink and green
> > colours were still there. Other small clouds close by, on the same
> > horizontal plane had no colour. I was enchanted by the delicate
> > colouring, nearly went into the back of 2 vehicles as I meandered up Stud
> > Rd looking at clouds :-o
> >
> > This is something I have never noticed before. Can someone tell me how
> > this colouring occurs?
> >
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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004
Date: Thu, 13 May 1999 13:46:38 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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Thanks so much Michael,
Thats really great. I've got the dates, as mentioned in my manuscript as
4 July 1900 as the real big one. It's from Andy Macqueen's book, Back
from the Brink, published a couple of years ago here in the mountains.
He's lived here all/most of his life, I think, (he's around 50+) and he
is more aquainted with the bush around here than most. That book you
mention sounds really interesting too.
I appreciate your help.
Linsday Pearce
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
>
> The snowfall in question was noted as extending as far down
> the Blue Mountains as Lapstone. BOR's uncle caught a train
> that encountered snow on the ground just after the Lapstone
> railway tunnel within a day of the dump. By Blackheath it
> was "well over 2ft deep with many drifts that were deeper".
> Snow was also claimed to have caused a train to get stuck
> in a cutting on its way from Lithgow. At Cullenbenbong, which
> I believe is in the Megalong or Kanimbla Valley, snow depth
> was slightly less than at Blackheath. Date is noted as "the
> first decent cold since 1902". So...
>
> 1902 - Kanimbla Valley "60 hard frosts in succession".
> 1903 - Sept. Rain came. BOR was born about then.
> 1904 - "Black New Year" extensive fires.
> 1905 - Sept. More hot weather.
> 1907 - 23/12 "cold rain and snow up high".
> 1908 - US Fleet visit.
> 1909 - New home in Megalong being built.
> 1910 - Move to Megalong. "Shivering cold".
> 1912 - New home being built at Lamington Plateau.
>
> There is an extensive amount of text describing this big
> snowfall about how the boys played in it, the weather at
> the time being almost dead calm in the valley, the sound
> of "tree bows breaking under the weight of snow high up on
> the ridge", how the O'Reilly boys made "swiss rolls" to
> expose grass for the cattle etc. I can only deduce the
> date as being June/July/Aug in 1910 or 1911. By 1912, the
> elder boys were building a new home at the Green Mountains
> (Lamington Plateau - QLD). BOR talks about playing in the
> snow with his elder brothers so that reliably rules out
> later dates.
>
> Blair might be able to pinpoint the event from his records.
>
> Cheers,
>
> ,-_|\
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005
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 06:39:28 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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Subject: aus-wx: Upper Blue Mountains = Chilly...
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Not quite chilly enough for snow, but its 5.7 degrees and very blowy
here in the Upper Blue Mountains. Wind Chill definately below zero.
Lindsay Pearce
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006
From: "Nick Sykes" [nsykes at labyrinth.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Cold Outbreak and gales in Melbourne
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 08:14:06 +1000
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Hi all
Well it looks like Melbourne and the rest of Southern Vic and Tassie are
going to be hit by a real cold outbreak.
The latest sat pics show a very mature cold air pool moving in from the
south, preceded by a strong cold front.
Winds in Melbourne this morning are already quite strong, with some gusts
nearing 30knots and higher gusts are expected.
Winds in SW Tassie are expected to reach 55knots, a Storm wind warning is
current.
Looks like the drought is over for boring weather in Melbourne.
I will be writing up regular updates on my web page as this weather event
develops so you can keep track, no homework this weekend, and can be reached
at
www.labyrinth.net.au/~nsykes
Nick Sykes
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007
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Upper Blue Mountains = Chilly...
Date: Fri, 14 May 99 08:31:32 PDT
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Brrr
Cheers,
Nandina
nandina at alphalink.com.au
----------
> Not quite chilly enough for snow, but its 5.7 degrees and very blowy
> here in the Upper Blue Mountains. Wind Chill definately below zero.
>
>
> Lindsay Pearce
>
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>
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008
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.unimelb.edu.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold Outbreak and gales in Melbourne
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 09:58:24 +1000 (EST)
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>
> Hi all
>
> Well it looks like Melbourne and the rest of Southern Vic and Tassie are
> going to be hit by a real cold outbreak.
>
> The latest sat pics show a very mature cold air pool moving in from the
> south, preceded by a strong cold front.
I hate to disappoint people, but all models are expecting this cold
outbreak to peak west of Tasmania and slide quickly southeastwards.
If Tasmania were 500km further west we'd be looking at snow to sea
level, and they should still have some interest, but in Melbourne
I'm not expecting more than a normal late autumn cold front, as
opposed to a full-blown cold outbreak. The latest LAPS run has the
1000-500 hPa thickness in Melbourne bottoming out around 5400m, which
is not especially cold.
> Winds in Melbourne this morning are already quite strong, with some gusts
> nearing 30knots and higher gusts are expected.
>
> Winds in SW Tassie are expected to reach 55knots, a Storm wind warning is
> current.
The winds will be the chief interest in this, especially in Tasmania.
Maatsuyker Island is worth watching.
Blair Trewin
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009
From: "Parker, Debbie L" [dlp64129 at GlaxoWellcome.co.uk]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Cold Outbreak and gales in Melbourne
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 01:20:35 +0100
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Interesting Blair,
I for one wont be tooo disappointed if it doesn't eventuate but I'm more
interested in the wind as I'll be on Port Phillip again tomorrow. Hope the
winds moderate as forecast.
I did notice that Maatsuyker had 38 knots last night ( 9PM I think) & I
agree it will get interesting down there. Our (yacht)crew must be some of
the few that have seen Maatsuyker dead calm - both times we've been there.
Also noticed that Maatsuyker was (again) reporting pressures of 1095!!
Regards,
Debbie Parker
Boronia,Melbourne
> >
> > Hi all
> >
> > Well it looks like Melbourne and the rest of Southern Vic and Tassie are
> > going to be hit by a real cold outbreak.
> >
> > The latest sat pics show a very mature cold air pool moving in from the
> > south, preceded by a strong cold front.
> I hate to disappoint people, but all models are expecting this cold
> outbreak to peak west of Tasmania and slide quickly southeastwards.
> If Tasmania were 500km further west we'd be looking at snow to sea
> level, and they should still have some interest, but in Melbourne
> I'm not expecting more than a normal late autumn cold front, as
> opposed to a full-blown cold outbreak. The latest LAPS run has the
> 1000-500 hPa thickness in Melbourne bottoming out around 5400m, which
> is not especially cold.
>
> > Winds in Melbourne this morning are already quite strong, with some
> gusts
> > nearing 30knots and higher gusts are expected.
> >
> > Winds in SW Tassie are expected to reach 55knots, a Storm wind warning
> is
> > current.
> The winds will be the chief interest in this, especially in Tasmania.
> Maatsuyker Island is worth watching.
>
> Blair Trewin
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010
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 23:01:09 +1000
From: Chas & Helen Osborn [hosborn at tassie.net.au]
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Subject: aus-wx: West Coast observations
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Chas from Strahan
OBSERVATIONS:6am
CAPE SORELL WIND WNW 27KT
** WAVERIDER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 5.7m
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OVER THE PAST 3 HRS10.3m
AVERAGE PERIOD 10 s
OBSERVATIONS:9am
CAPE SORELL WIND WSW 23KT
RAIN
** WAVERIDER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 6.1m
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OVER THE PAST 3 HRS 10.9
AVERAGE PERIOD 11 s
OBSERVATIONS:9am
MAATSUYKER IS WIND NNW 50KT
SEA VERY ROUGH HEIGHT 4-6M
SWELL SW HEAVY HEIGHT OVER 4M
** Please Note: The Bureau's waverider buoy is located approximately
20Km northwest of Cape Sorell on the west coast of Tasmania. The
significant wave height reported from the waverider is approximately
the average of the third highest sea and swell waves combined. This i
approximately the wave height that an experienced mariner would
estimate from the bridge of a ship.
The overnight front passed through just after 6am with 9mm of rain.
Wind is now 270/18 at the airport. Aviation met are forecasting snow
above 1000m later.
Chas
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011
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 11:24:40 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: West Coast observations
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Sounds a little chily Chas. Whats the current temps?
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012
X-Originating-Ip: [137.154.210.13]
From: "Daniel Weatherhead" [dpw14 at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney BoM weathers inquiry:)
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 11:25:40 EST
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Here is the result of the inquiry into the Hailstorm and failure to give
warnings.
Bureau weathers hailstorm inquiry
By MEGAN SAUNDERS
14may99
DATED storm-detection systems, jammed telephone lines and a poor guess
left
Sydneysiders unaware of last month's hailstorm until it hit.
An internal investigation into the Bureau of Meteorology's failure to
warn of one of
Australia's most expensive natural disasters wants changes enforced to
avoid a
repeat.
Forecasters have been cleared of any wrongdoing after the bureau's
national director,
John Zillman, found their actions had been "reasonable and consistent"
with normal
practice.
Dr Zillman's investigation, which was tabled in federal parliament
yesterday,
confirmed forecasters were aware of a severe storm to Sydney's south
two hours
before it hit but believed it would move out to sea and then abate. As
the storm
approached, more problems emerged. Communication between airport
forecasters
and the bureau were severed because all phone lines, including the
silent phone line,
were engaged.
Only two forecasters were rostered to work when the storm hit and,
after being
inundated with calls, including from stormwatchers, decided it was too
late to issue a
warning.
The report blames the forecasting mishap on the "still incomplete
scientific
understanding of severe storm development and movement, and an
inability to
adequately characterise the storm using the observing systems and
technology at the
time".
Forecasters will be trained in new radar storm-monitoring techniques,
additional silent
telephone lines will be installed to avoid congestion and a US expert
will examine
whether warning systems need upgrading.
Hmmm...vedy intaresting:)
Daniel Weatherhead
=============
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013
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Southern circumpolar wave
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 11:22:11 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet E-mail/MAPI - 8.0.0.4211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Anthony,
Looked up 'The Book', it doesn't mention circumpolar wave as such, but does
talk about the 'circumpolar vortex' of westerley winds, which reaches its
greatest extent in the upper troposphere. It goes on to discuss this in
terms of the circumpolar pressure gradient, "which is larger in winter and
hence the westerlies are stronger over the much of the hemisphere". After
some discussion re effects and average position of high pressure cells, it
finishes by saying "at any one time the circumpolar vortex appears full of
embedded waves and eddies that are the troughs , cyclones and anticyclones
which control day to day weather". We only really feel effects of this
winter.
The end of the chapter the book discusses wave structures in the upper
level Westerley flow (500hPa) and notes that the structure is quite complex
being a combination of almost stationary large scale waves and shorter
wavelength free travelling waves (Rossby waves). These waves are reflected
at the surface by cellular eddies which break up the polar front.
My thoughts are that the position of large standing waves which move only
slowly, may play a large part in determining the average movement of
surface lows and whether they move NE into SE Aust or slip away to the SE,
and thus perhaps explain why some winters are milder than others.
John W.
-----Original Message-----
From: Anthony Cornelius [SMTP:cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
Sent: Thursday, 13 May 1999 20:02
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Southern circumpolar wave
Hi Mark,
I've leant this book to some one at the moment, but it *may* contain
what you're looking for, I cannot remember though...it's called "The
Climate of Australia and New Zealand" - John, can you look in the index
and see if it has anything on southern circumpolar waves?
Anthony
Mark Hardy wrote:
>
> Hi all
>
> Does anybody know about the "southern circumpolar wave" and how it
affects
> our weather?
>
> thanks, Mark
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014
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 11:36:49 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney BoM weathers inquiry:)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Quick someone call Mulder & Scully......theres a government cover up &
conspiracy going on here!
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015
From: Michael_Bath at amp.com.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: AMP at NET
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 11:43:33 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Obs 11.30am / cloud colours
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Quite gloomy in Sydney at the moment with an extensive band of altostratus
persisting in the coastal plain. Mammatus has started to form in this cloud
band too. Blue skies can be seen on the mountains and further west. Light W
winds.
With regard to the clouds that produce the colours, I recall that a
meteorologist from the Darwin BoM referred to them as subset rainbows.
There must be several types though - the real rainbow looking one as
illustrated in Michael Thompsons photo, and the oil slick looking ones as
per my example. I should also have said that they appear in altostratus and
cirrostratus.
regards, Michael
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016
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 11:53:10 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Southern circumpolar wave
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
John Woodbridge wrote at Fri, 14 May 1999 11:22:11 +1000:
[snip]
> My thoughts are that the position of large standing waves
> which move only slowly, may play a large part in determining
> the average movement of surface lows and whether they move
> NE into SE Aust or slip away to the SE, and thus perhaps
> explain why some winters are milder than others.
It's interesting that its greatest effect in the mid
latitudes is during the winter. As stated, a most complex
phenomena. I would postulate that wave-like patterns will
also be found at lower latitudes throughout the year but
they are more difficult to observe, analyse or study.
As per the tendency for milder winters than others, cast
back to winter, 1998 where frontal activity came in bursts
to the SE of Australia at about 2 to 3 week intervals then
died during September, then was reborn in October.
Going back to archived satpic animations of that time, the
evolving wave, made visible by the evolution of underlying
weather systems can be clearly seen. However, it is way
beyond me to even guess at it's future evolution. I remain
fascinated and convinced that this is but one manifestation
of nature that may be modeled using chaos theory applied
in a fractal geometry context...More crap I expect:-)
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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017
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe weather page from the BoM for those interested
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 12:16:34 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet Mail 4.70.1155
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Jimmy,
I love it, on this page, how the figures for insured losses are still ...
ohhhhhhh ... about a billion short....;)
----------
> From: Jimmy Deguara
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Severe weather page from the BoM for those interested
> Date: Thursday, 13 May 1999 17:20
>
> Hi Jimmy Deguara here
>
> I know others may or will have seen this already, but there is some
> interesting articles from the severe weather section of Sydney BoM.
>
>
> http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/inside/sevwx/public/
>
> Check out the articles and links.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ---------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Vice President ASWA
> from Schofields, Sydney
> e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
> homepage with Michael Bath
> http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
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018
From: "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney BoM weathers inquiry:)
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 12:28:53 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet Mail 4.70.1161
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10 out of 10 BOM.
>From what I have seen on TV, there has been a strong push to fix the
problem WITHOUT head hunting.
Head hunting or sacking is not the way to fix any problem and I'm glad that
the BOM have this in mind.
We are now getting regular and more descriptive warnings at 2KY and they
are well before they hit towns in NSW.
Take heart everyone. The BOM are looking ahead not dwelling in the past.
Thanks My Personal View Only.
******************************************
Grant Boyden
http://www.zeta.org.au/~boyden
http://www.2ky.com.au
******************************************
----------
> From: Daniel Weatherhead
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Sydney BoM weathers inquiry:)
> Date: Saturday, 15 May 1999 2:25
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Here is the result of the inquiry into the Hailstorm and failure to give
> warnings.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Bureau weathers hailstorm inquiry
> By MEGAN SAUNDERS
>
> 14may99
>
> DATED storm-detection systems, jammed telephone lines and a poor
guess
> left
> Sydneysiders unaware of last month's hailstorm until it hit.
>
> An internal investigation into the Bureau of Meteorology's failure
to
> warn of one of
> Australia's most expensive natural disasters wants changes enforced
to
> avoid a
> repeat.
>
> Forecasters have been cleared of any wrongdoing after the bureau's
> national director,
> John Zillman, found their actions had been "reasonable and
consistent"
> with normal
> practice.
>
> Dr Zillman's investigation, which was tabled in federal parliament
> yesterday,
> confirmed forecasters were aware of a severe storm to Sydney's south
> two hours
> before it hit but believed it would move out to sea and then abate.
As
> the storm
> approached, more problems emerged. Communication between airport
> forecasters
> and the bureau were severed because all phone lines, including the
> silent phone line,
> were engaged.
>
> Only two forecasters were rostered to work when the storm hit and,
> after being
> inundated with calls, including from stormwatchers, decided it was
too
> late to issue a
> warning.
>
> The report blames the forecasting mishap on the "still incomplete
> scientific
> understanding of severe storm development and movement, and an
> inability to
> adequately characterise the storm using the observing systems and
> technology at the
> time".
>
> Forecasters will be trained in new radar storm-monitoring
techniques,
> additional silent
> telephone lines will be installed to avoid congestion and a US
expert
> will examine
> whether warning systems need upgrading.
>
>
>
> Hmmm...vedy intaresting:)
>
> Daniel Weatherhead
> =============
>
>
> ______________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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019
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 12:30:59 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe weather page from the BoM for those interested
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Without trying to plug various links or organisations
like ASWA with a specific focus plus reports from list
subscribers to aussie-weather, the most up-to-date, but
non-BoM verified reports about Australian severe-weather
events will still be found by using the resouces available
to this list.
I just wish, in all sincerity, that the BoM was properly
resourced to update its pages in a more timely manner:-)
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
Andrew Miskelly wrote:
>
> Jimmy,
>
> I love it, on this page, how the figures for insured losses are still ...
> ohhhhhhh ... about a billion short....;)
>
> ----------
> > From: Jimmy Deguara
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: aus-wx: Severe weather page from the BoM for those interested
> > Date: Thursday, 13 May 1999 17:20
> >
> > Hi Jimmy Deguara here
> >
> > I know others may or will have seen this already, but there is some
> > interesting articles from the severe weather section of Sydney BoM.
> >
> >
> > http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/inside/sevwx/public/
> >
> > Check out the articles and links.
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020
Date: Sat, 15 May 1999 00:51:39 +1000
From: Chas & Helen Osborn [hosborn at tassie.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.51 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: West Coast observations
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hello paul
Our current temp 1230EST 9C and dropping. I lit the fire something I haven't
had to do for a few weeks.
Public weather expects the snow down to 500m by day break tomorrow morning.
Chas
Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au wrote:
> Sounds a little chily Chas. Whats the current temps?
>
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021
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 13:05:13 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: West Coast observations
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
brrrrrrrrrrrrrr
we havnt even gone below that yet as a minimum temp. brrrr. And I havnt
even seen snow :-(
Sounds very cool. Hows the wind?
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022
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney BoM weathers inquiry:)
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 13:47:16 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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Internal inquiry says it all....
If it was a fair dinkum inquiry I would have been asked to give evidence,
regarding the spotter report I made sometime around 6.30pm. I am not trying
to big note myself, in fact I have even gone out of my way to avoid stirring
things up, such as keeping my mouth shut in regard to the forecasters
comments when a Daily Telegraph reporter rang me the next day.
I hope the BOM guys such as Treloar and Zillman appreciate this !
Michael
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023
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney BoM weathers inquiry:)
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 13:55:16 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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We will see next storm season, I hope you are right. BOM needs to utilise
the all too willing "free" resource called AWSA.
They need to be proactive when there are storms around. If they see a storm
on radar in the Illawarra, NW Sydney or Taree they need to ring Mr Thompson,
Deguara or Mossman and ask for a first hand observation. It is no good
waiting for us to find a hailstone that is exactly 2 cm in diameter so we
can ring. They have to appreciate we have a better understanding of storms
than the other 99% of spotters.
I don't mean that the BOM issues severe warnings just because we say so, I
mean that they ring and if we say things like that it has an enormous back
shearing anvil than they use this with whatever other resources they have to
decide on a warning.
Michael
> Take heart everyone. The BOM are looking ahead not dwelling in the past.
>
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024
From: "Nick Sykes" [nsykes at labyrinth.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Cold Outbreak
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 16:08:52 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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Hi all
Latest forecasts from the BOM have snow down to 500m in Tassie and 800m in
Vic for Tomorrow. Local Hail and Thuder is also forecast for southern Vic.
Current obs
Strong NW wind.
Line of showers approaching from the SW
16 C
Nick Sykes
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025
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 18:09:31 +1000
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD wx + Pictures
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Ben from Brisbane here..
We had some spectacular high cloud in Southern QLD today.. i know i
know, it's only high cloud but it really was very nice, much like the
pictures that Michael Thompson posted a day or two ago.. just took at
least 10 photo's of a great sunset..
On the subject of sunsets, i have a few pictures scanned that i took
over a period of about 3 months in SE QLD.. out of over 200 photo's
taken, only a handfull of them came out (grrr).. i guess that's what you
get with a poverty stricken 28mm point and shoot camera :( Thanks again
to Rosco for scanning them for me..
Sorry, no thumbnails at the moment, i was going to wait until the
Brisbane Storm Chasers Webpage was finished for these, but it looks like
it may be a little while before the page is ready for the web.. i'll
paste the URL's for the ones i think are worthy of looking at..
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/45.jpg
A spectacular sunset.. it didn't turn out too bad either, i was
surprised
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/46.jpg
Taken the same day as the one above..
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/1.jpg
Taken from the top of Mount Nebo (1000m up).. Notice the fresh updraft
going up inbetween the 2 anvils? A few minutes later it was absolutely
breathtaking.. 5 times as large as it is there and just rock solid.. but
believe it or not i was almost certain the pictures wouldn't come out at
the time, and i was short on film so i only took this photo ( at *$#&$# at %
# at $ at #)
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/9.jpg
This beasty looking thing was taken on quite a weak day, although this
storm did go on to produce quite allot of lightning once it got off the
coast, and a possible microburst over Bribie Island about 20 minutes
after this photo was taken.. most other storms in the district were
quite weak..
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/7.jpg
They don't get much blacker than this.. it was taken on December 16 last
year, the day of the 10cm hail in Brisbane, the storm that dumped the
10cm hail was approx 30km east of this base as this picture was taken..
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/6.jpg
This was taken as a squall line was approaching in excess of 60km/h (the
BOM warnings mentioned the speed).. it was absolutely FLYING.. shortly
after this picture was taken i recieved probably a 40knot gust of wind..
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/5.jpg
The same storm as the one above, taken from the same location at almost
the same time.. This was soooooooo green in real life, but unfortunately
the green did not come out at all in the photo..
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/37.jpg
Not weather related, but this is an arial shot of the Redcliffe
Peninsula taken from a helicopter.. Incase you're wondering, i live on
the western side of this peninsula :)
The flood pictures!! All these picture were taken during the Febuary
floods in SE QLD, keep in mind that the worst flooding was some distance
NW of Brisbane, and the flooding seen in the pictures below was classed
as "minor flooding", with the "Major/Casastrophic" flooding out of reach
due to cut roads :( Their are a few, but my favourites are:
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/27.jpg
If their is actually anyone still reading this email, the picture was
taken on the side of Mount Mee some 6 hours after flash flooding ripped
through the area after an ovenright rainfall in excess of 300mm!! The
water was much much higher than it was in the picture, evidence of this
the debree on the road on the other side, and also trees were ripped out
and the banks badly eroded a short way downstream.. This is not actually
the Caboulture River (wich caused the worst flooding in my area), but a
small drainage creek.. it dosn't even have a name! the larger
creeks/rivers were out of reach, as you can see the road is under at
least 2 metres of water (the flood depth indicator is out of site, it's
1.5m high)
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/28.jpg
Actually, in this photo you can vaugly see how high the water reached
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/26.jpg
Taken further downstream, the water was flowing VERY fast
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/25.jpg
This picture was taken from the Bruce Highway, standing on the bridge
that crosses The Caboulture river, all these photo's are taken at least
6-8 hours AFTER the flash flooding that morning, the water levels were
so much higher in the morning, but i didn't have a camera until early
afternoon - long story
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/23.jpg
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/24.jpg
These 2 were also taken from the Bruce highway.. the Caboulture river is
normally around 10-15 metres wide, but very very deep.. I'd love to see
it in a major flood..
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/20.jpg
This picture was taken in Caboulture, this is the Caboulture River.. you
could mistake it FOR A LAKE.. again, this was 6-8 hours AFTER the flash
flooding that occured during the early hours of the morning, the water
was at least another half to one metre higher than it is in this photo..
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/21.jpg
Taken from around the same area as the picture above, you can see some
weed on the railing.. the railing was not visible in the peak of the
flash flooding..
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/19.jpg
same as above, looking down the road - the Caboulture river is at the
far end of this road, you can just see in the photo the water is still
over the bridge that crosses the river..
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/35.jpg
This is the now infamous Toombul Carpark - underwater, living up to its
name.. this is once again flash flooding, withe the water moving
extremely fast and rising and falling quite quickly..
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/36.jpg
Same location as above, but taken from the carpark itself..
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/10.jpg
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/11.jpg
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/12.jpg
These are arial shots taken by the Department of Natural resources in
Febuary, during the worst flooding in Gympie in over a century (I think
the Mary reached 21.95 metres).. These didn't really scan all that
well.. keep in mind that what you are looking at is quite mountanis
terrain, and the water depth in some of those valleys underwater is just
beyond a comprehensable..
Hmm.. this is one big ass email.. if you got this far then you've done
pretty well! hehe.. Their are close to 50 pictures in that directory, as
you've probably figured out by now you can just change the number of the
JPG in the URL to see the rest of the pictures, or you go to this URL
below and you will get a directory listing..
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/bsc/
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026
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney BoM weathers inquiry:)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 18:56:01 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
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>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Here is the result of the inquiry into the Hailstorm and failure to give
> warnings.
>
The full report was apparently tabled in Parliament last night. I'm
trying to get hold of a copy (as it's been tabled it should now be
a public document), and if I do will post a summary of pertinent
points. Senator Hill's speech apparently gave a lot of the main
points - I haven't gone looking for it yet but someone said they'd
found it in Hansard (try www.aph.gov.au?).
So far I only know what's been reported in the media. The most
interesting aspect of this was the communications - and this may go
a long way to explaining why the likes of Michael feel they get
pretty short shrift from the Bureau. Under the current system, out
of business hours the forecasters are answering their own phones,
and frankly in a fast-developing situation they've got better things
to do - some of the calls contain valuable information, some are a
waste of time. One idea I've been floating around here is for regional
offices to be able to divert their phones to another state under less
pressure in a severe-weather situation - that way the person who does
the screening of the phone calls (and takes the decisions about
which ones are worth passing on) isn't someone who is trying to
forecast the storms at the same time. (For example, something that
could be done might be to divert the storm spotters number to, say,
Melbourne, and for someone in Melbourne to take down details and
relay them via e-mail or some other text-based system to Sydney - I
imagine a message appearing on the screen along the lines of '1840
Bundeena, 4cm hail reported' is what the forecasters need, and they
could digest it quickly in a situation where every minute counts).
(I'm also attracted by the idea of being able to transfer the Stan
Zemaneks of this world to waste the time of someone in some other
state).
Blair Trewin
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027
X-Originating-Ip: [203.2.193.71]
From: "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: $4.8million to Bureau of Meteorology...
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 03:22:08 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Have a look at:
http://www.erin.gov.au/portfolio/minister/env/99/mr11may99bom.html
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028
X-Originating-Ip: [203.2.193.71]
From: "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Detailed Report on Sydney Hailstorm..
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 03:24:29 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Have a look at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/services_policy/storms/sydney_hail/hail_report.shtml
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029
From: "bernette hudson" [bernette at primus.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: May i have some help
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 20:40:03 +1000
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hi my name is Kelly and i am 15 i know this message isnt weather related but i was wondering does anyone know of any places in Victoria which will do work experience in the weather area except for the Beurea of Meteorolgy as i have tried there. If you know of a place to go to please tell me ASAP. Thanks heaps
>From Kelly
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030
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 19:38:09 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: aswa on the web at oklahoma uni
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Mark,
I checked out the webpage and it's really nice .. I added it as a
bookmark!
marcia is the secretary to the big boss.
Marcia J. Pallutto
Secretary II
School of Meteorology
University of Oklahoma
100 E. Boyd, RM 1310
Norman, OK 73019
(405) 325-6561 - Phone
(405) 325-7689 - Fax
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031
From: disarm at braenet.com.au
X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified)
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32)
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 22:03:38 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: bens photos
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Heya bodie
Yeah wasted opportunities... i think we have all had those.. :(, cant wait
for your sunset pics! As soon as i use up the 15 or so shots i have left on
my roll of film ill scan the ones of the hail shafts and storm structure of
storms we had here on the 27th April.
Michael B --> I also saw that mammatus out over the west (parra/maybe
further west) at about 11.30ish, looked nice but the whole day had a really
eerie feeling about it, until the cloud cleared somewhat towards sunset..
Matt --> see some of you tomorrow night at Michael B's house
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032
From: "McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne cold weather
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 22:07:11 +1000
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Hi All,
Well. MRF has 500mb thickness at about 530 for melbourne tomorrow morning
(sat) at 10am. Vertical velocities at -30. Tot-tots at 50 or so. 850mb
temps of -3. Could be a tiddle colder than they forecast. The forecast is
for local hail and thunder with snow falls to 800m.
Finally something interesting in melbourne.
Andrew McDonald
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033
X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
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Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 22:58:23 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: May i have some help-possible help from Jimmy
Deguara
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id XAA12628
At 20:40 14/05/99 +1000, you wrote:
>
> hi my name is Kelly and i am 15 i know this message isnt weather related but
> i was wondering does anyone know of any places in Victoria which will do
work
> experience in the weather area except for the Beurea of Meteorolgy as i have
> tried there.� If you know of a place to go to please tell me ASAP.� Thanks
> heaps
> ������������������������������������������������������������ >From Kelly
Hi Jimmy here,
I would suggest you try at a universities such as Monash University. You may
also try the Geelong Weather Service if there is some opportunity there. Sorry
Lindsay....
Jimmy Deguara
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
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034
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Detailed Report on Sydney Hailstorm..
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 23:29:10 +1000
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Interesting reading from the BOM Sydney Hailstorm report.
"A continuation and acceleration of the Bureau's program to update training
of meteorologists in the use of radar for severe thunderstorm diagnosis and
forecasting. "
Perhaps they should see the AWSA members, most of whom seem to have this
covered.
Michael
> Have a look at:
>
http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/services_policy/storms/sydney_hail/hail_report.
shtml
>
>
> ______________________________________________________
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035
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 23:46:19 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Southern circumpolar wave
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All
After much hunting around and with assistance of others on this list this
seems to be the scoop on the Southern circumpolar wave - AKA the Antarctic
circumpolar wave.
The Antarctic circumpolar wave is an ocean current consisting of four large
eddies of water which circle the antarctic in a clockwise manner. The
eddies, 2 warm and 2 cold circle the antarctic every 8 or 9 years. It is
believed that these pools induce above and below average rainfalls as they
circle the globe. It's not clear as to what causes the ACPW although it
could be caused by the bi-annual variation in wind patterns. It may also be
induced by 2 of the more prominent peninsulas on the antarctic continent.
These peninsulas deflect the ocean currents setting up the wave pattern -
well that's the theory.
As these pools of warm and cool water pass to the south of Australia it is
thought they may affect rainfall patterns with the warmer water promoting
moister airstreams. The temperature difference in these eddies is small at
only about 1 degree C, so detecting the effects in isolation will be
difficult. Rainfall in Australia is already known to be highly dependent on
both ENSO and Indian Ocean ocean temperatures. The ACPW is a new discovery
and it will take many years of research to determine the significance of
it's contribution to our climate.
Cheers, Mark
--
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company
Information Media Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________
----------
>From: Michael Scollay
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Southern circumpolar wave
>Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 11:53 AM
>
> John Woodbridge wrote at Fri, 14 May 1999 11:22:11 +1000:
> [snip]
>> My thoughts are that the position of large standing waves
>> which move only slowly, may play a large part in determining
>> the average movement of surface lows and whether they move
>> NE into SE Aust or slip away to the SE, and thus perhaps
>> explain why some winters are milder than others.
>
> It's interesting that its greatest effect in the mid
> latitudes is during the winter. As stated, a most complex
> phenomena. I would postulate that wave-like patterns will
> also be found at lower latitudes throughout the year but
> they are more difficult to observe, analyse or study.
>
> As per the tendency for milder winters than others, cast
> back to winter, 1998 where frontal activity came in bursts
> to the SE of Australia at about 2 to 3 week intervals then
> died during September, then was reborn in October.
>
> Going back to archived satpic animations of that time, the
> evolving wave, made visible by the evolution of underlying
> weather systems can be clearly seen. However, it is way
> beyond me to even guess at it's future evolution. I remain
> fascinated and convinced that this is but one manifestation
> of nature that may be modeled using chaos theory applied
> in a fractal geometry context...More crap I expect:-)
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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| Document: 990514.htm
Updated: 17 May 1999 |
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