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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Friday, 21 May 1999 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 "Adam Mayo" [oyam at bigpond.com] RE: CLOUD COLOURS
002 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] RE: CLOUD COLOURS
003 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Silent Sentinels...
004 "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au] RE: CLOUD COLOURS
005 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] Forecasting of CAPE + Understanding Skew-T's Page
006 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Forecasting of CAPE + Understanding Skew-T's Page
007 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] (no subject)
008 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Warm in Victoria and southern NSW yesterday
009 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Intense low for the SW on Wednesday?
010 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] Silent Sentinels...
011 "GLENDA JOHN" [glenda at spiderweb.com.au] Details
012 "GLENDA JOHN" [glenda at spiderweb.com.au] Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #172
013 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Intense low for the SW on Wednesday?
014 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Forecasting of CAPE + Understanding Skew-T's Page
015 "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz] Intense low for the SW on Wednesday?
016 "Daniel Weatherhead" [dpw14 at hotmail.com] Keep those Vantage Points a Coming!!
017 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Silent Sentinels...
018 Phil Schubert [philip at zedley.com] Intense low for the SW on Wednesday?
019 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Intense low for the SW on Wednesday?
020 "Daniel Weatherhead" [dpw14 at hotmail.com] Bravo Anthony!!!!!
021 "Matthew Piper" [mjpiper at ozemail.com.au] Bravo Anthony!!!!!
022 Ross Portas [rportas at mindless.com] Bravo Anthony!!!!!
023 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Jet Stream charts now on Weather 21
024 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Forecasting of CAPE + Understanding Skew-T's Page
025 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Silent Sentinels...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: "Adam Mayo" [oyam at bigpond.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: RE: CLOUD COLOURS
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 10:11:13 +1000
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Nandina,
Thought that you would be interested in our experience with what we now know is called Iridescence. At 3.45pm on August, 30th, 1998 we saw the same colours in the sky as you also saw. We didn't know what it was and took a whole series of photos. There seemed to be what we thought was brown smoke drifting away from the patch of iridescence and the cloud also was being disturbed with the appearance of something passing through it at great speed. The thing that was of major difference to what you saw happened after we had been watching the sky for about 10 minutes. The cloud lit up with a blindingly bright light, whiter than looking at the sun. Bright enough to make us look quickly away and so bright that it actually hurt our eyes. On that occasion I rang the weather bureau and the Sydney Observatory but neither knew what we had seen and told me it was most likely the sun or ??moon that we were looking at. The sun was much further to the south west in the sky at that time and we were making sure that the camera and us were shielded from the direct sun light by the roof of our house. The moon actually rose above the horizon about 45 minutes after all this had taken place.
Does anyone have any idea as to what we saw and what might have caused the really bright light on a relatively small patch of light almost whispy cloud?
Judy Mayo
Mona Vale NSW
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002
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: RE: CLOUD COLOURS
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 11:04:15 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
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Hi Adam,
I have observed that the conditions which support iridescence also tend to
favour the formation of 'mock suns', that is reflections of the sun due to
the refractive index and structure of ice crystals in the cloud.
This is basically the same mechanism that causes halo's - which sometimes
may be coloured or have coloured fringes. When there is only a small patch
of suitable thin glaciated cloud - you consequently only see a
correspondingly small part of the halo and any colouring (iridescence)
which may be present due to diffraction.
When conditions are just right you can also get 'mock suns' - which is an
intense brightening of part of the halo at specific points related to the
angle of the sun (typically at 180 or 90 deg quadrant points). This
phenomena is quite rare in our latitudes although I have seen it in
Brisbane. It is much more common in polar regions where there are frequent
vails of thin glaciated cloud.
The fact that you saw iridescence implies that you were already seeing part
of a halo. It could be that as the sun moved, the angle of light changed
to cause you to view a mock sun in the bit of cloud you were looking at.
These can be very bright, white and too bright to look at directly.
Whether this is the right explanation may depend upon how long the
brightening lasted and how quickly it grew and decayed. If the event was
very sudden - then you had better call Fox Moulder!
Regards.
John W.
>snip
Does anyone have any idea as to what we saw and what might have caused the
really bright light on a relatively small patch of light almost whispy
cloud?
Judy Mayo
Mona Vale NSW
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003
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 11:07:28 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Silent Sentinels...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
While I agree in principle with many of the points raised
e.g. not enough historical record, not enough proof etc.
It becomes a cyclic arguement without absolute proof that
it was man's doing. But that will be too late:-(
The most difficult problem is that we don't have a model
Earth running side-by-side absent of all human kind with
all their nasty Earth-destroying habits to which we can
point and say "There, I told you so. See now that coral
reefs are being destroyed on the Earth-with-people but not
on the Earth-with-no-people. And, by the way, I can also
see that more wild species are surviving on the
Earth-with-no-people also. Look and see!, there's many
more trees on the Earth-with-no-people and it's cooler
too..."
While we mightn't have enough PROOF to call it one way or
another yet, clearly, as "Silent Sentinels" reported,
damage has been done to the Earth's coral reefs on a scale
that has not been seen since T-Rex looked up and wondered
why it was so dark and he was very cold and hungry.
The fact of the matter is that we humans have to live on
this Earth and take care of it. The fossil record tells
no lies when it comes to the demise of one or two dominant
species at the conclusion of each epoch. You might say that
the metaphor "variety is the spice of life" rings loud and
clear:-) However, the question in my mind is what form Homo
Sapien Sapien's demise will take and when it will occur.
But...
Now ridding the Earth of its people burden mightn't be
such a bad thing for what's left of Earth's life. That
is provided we don't take 99.49999% of all other species
with us:-( Fortunately, as the fossil record again shows,
Life on Earth has always found a way even when 99.5% of
all species have been rendered extinct. That in itself
doesn't worry me as I won't be around to witness it, but
in this case, Earth has evolved a species capable of
pondering and influencing it's own future. That is
probably a unique evolutionary experiment for the third
rock from the Sun. We humans have it within our power
to change the entire Earth's climate for what is shaping
up to be the the worse (not for severe weather might I
add:-). We need to recognise that, develop plans to
cope with its devestating effects and probably take
action to mitigate worsening circumstances.
Maybe we should get our marine-emu heads out of the
dead coral and start to find real solutions that stops
us becoming the last remaining dominant species (other
than cockroaches:-) of the current epoch.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
Michael Thompson wrote on Thu, 20 May 1999 22:45:48 +1000:
>
> I never ruled out catastrophic triggers at all, in fact I think they are far
> more common then we realise, especially volcanoes.
>
> Michael
>
> Kevin Phyland wrote on Thu, 20 May 1999 04:09:33 PDT
>
> > Global warming is very likely happening but I disagree that rapid climate
> > changes occur WITHOUT some sort of catastrophic trigger.
> >
> > i.e. comet/asteroid impact which would obviously affect global weather
> > dramatically.
> >
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004
From: "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: RE: CLOUD COLOURS
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 11:09:59 +1000
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Hi Adam,
Have a look at Karl Kruszelnicki's web page, as a similar question was asked
a couple of weeks ago.
http://www.abc.net.au/science/k2/default.htm
Then click on Signal To Noise and scroll down to "Q & A from 13 May 1999"
and it's the first question. Click on the question mark icon to see peoples
responses.
Cheers!
Marty.
Brisbane, Australia
martyp at dynamite.com.au
Images of Canberra: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
Lightning Photos: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
ICQ: 11790565
-----Original Message-----
From: Adam Mayo [oyam at bigpond.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Friday, 21 May 1999 10:14
Subject: aus-wx: RE: CLOUD COLOURS
Nandina,
Thought that you would be interested in our experience with what we now know
is called Iridescence. At 3.45pm on August, 30th, 1998 we saw the same
colours in the sky as you also saw. We didn't know what it was and took a
whole series of photos. There seemed to be what we thought was brown smoke
drifting away from the patch of iridescence and the cloud also was being
disturbed with the appearance of something passing through it at great
speed. The thing that was of major difference to what you saw happened
after we had been watching the sky for about 10 minutes. The cloud lit up
with a blindingly bright light, whiter than looking at the sun. Bright
enough to make us look quickly away and so bright that it actually hurt our
eyes. On that occasion I rang the weather bureau and the Sydney Observatory
but neither knew what we had seen and told me it was most likely the sun or
??moon that we were looking at. The sun was much further to the south west
in the sky at that time and we were making sure that the camera and us were
shielded from the direct sun light by the roof of our house. The moon
actually rose above the horizon about 45 minutes after all this had taken
place.
Does anyone have any idea as to what we saw and what might have caused the
really bright light on a relatively small patch of light almost whispy
cloud?
Judy Mayo
Mona Vale NSW
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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005
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 11:40:46 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Forecasting of CAPE + Understanding Skew-T's Page
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
As some of you are aware, I've been experimenting with ways on how we
can get a CAPE forecast for us CAPEless people here in Australia. I've
done a small webpage on how you can create a CAPE forecast using
forecast Skew-T's - the thing was, that the forecast Skew-T's didn't
have the theoretical air parcel plot overlayed onto them. I've worked
out a way to calculate this (very simply) and thus enable you to get an
"accurate approximation" (oxymoron!) of CAPE. Basically, all I did was
rediscover "Normands Thereom."
It also thoroughly explains how Skew-T's work, so anyone can understand
it. If you're interested, goto:
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/skewt/skewt.html
If anyone has any comments/suggestions/questions please contact me at
cyclone at rmitel.com.au as I'm very keen to hear what you have to say.
(NB - this is a draft, there may be spelling/punctuation errors etc, I
apologise for this)
Anthony Cornelius
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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006
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Forecasting of CAPE + Understanding Skew-T's Page
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 02:18:08 GMT
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On Fri, 21 May 1999 11:40:46 +1000, Anthony Cornelius
wrote:
> I've
>done a small webpage on how you can create a CAPE forecast using
>forecast Skew-T's -
Small. SMALL?!?
You've put a lot onto that page, Anthony, and it really is a great
explanation of a complex area. And with aussie examples, too. Well
done!
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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007
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Date: Thu, 20 May 1999 23:33:23 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
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Sorry ppl i posted the wrong url for the tipping, the correct url is,
http://www.upnaway.com/~jra/tippingresults.html
Ira Fehlberg
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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008
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aus-wx: Warm in Victoria and southern NSW yesterday
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 14:06:35 +1000 (EST)
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It was a warm day in Victoria and southern NSW yesterday.
Melbourne reached 23.2, the second-warmest on record so late in
autumn (after a notable 26.7 on 21/5/1975).
East Sale reached 25 (rounded). If it made it to 25.0 this will be
their latest 25+ on record.
Canberra reached 21 (rounded), possibly a late-season record (previously
20.8) and the fourth-latest date on which 20 has been reached
(after 25/5/1994, 29/5/1954 and 4/6/1957).
With the amount of cloud now around I don't expect any notably high
maxima today, but there could be some high minima (20 at Broken Hill
this morning).
Blair Trewin
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009
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Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 13:17:54 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Intense low for the SW on Wednesday?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Just was reading the Extended forecast for the SW Land Division in the WA
section, its possible we could get a severe weather event for the whole
south-west on Wednesday. This what part of it says:
A developing low pressure system is likely to be located off the
west coast on Monday. Some cloud should develop in the west, with
freshening N'ly winds and slightly warmer conditions.
The low is forecast to intensify on Tuesday as it moves towards the
SW corner. A cold front expected to sweep over the west coast,
bringing showers to western districts. Some activity may extend
inland later in the day.
Some computer models are suggesting that the low will be intense and
slow moving on Wednesday, with very windy conditions over the SW of
WA.
Jacob
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010
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 17:10:44 +1000
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Silent Sentinels...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Ben from Brisbane here..
Did a bit of reading today in-between classes on this subject.. found a
couple of interesting bits and pieces..
As long ago as 1500 BC the eruption of Santorini in the Aegean sea was
followed by a pronounced global cooling..
Probably the most famous eruption was Tambora in Indonesia in April
1815.. This eruption was followed in Europe by "The year without a
summer".. In this year temperatures at Madras in India unusually passed
below freezing on several occasions..
More recently in 1982 the eruption of El Chicon in Central America was
followed by a marked global cooling..
Kevin Phyland wrote:
>
> Hi Michael!
>
> At the risk of sounding American....
>
> Global warming is very likely happening but I disagree that rapid climate
> changes occur WITHOUT some sort of catastrophic trigger.
>
> i.e. comet/asteroid impact which would obviously affect global weather
> dramatically.
>
> I think that neither side of this argument (even the impact one) have
> anywhere NEAR enough historical data to push the conclusion one way or
> another.
>
> The last ten years have probably contained nine of the hottest global
> average temperatures ever recorded...but...since when?...and how far back do
> we have to go to be sure?
>
> The Little Ice Age of the 1700's was a recorded phenomenon...but no mention
> anywhere that I could find for a 'trigger" and that was pre-Industrial
> Revolution...
>
> No...I'm NOT saying that GAIA rules...just that catastrophic climate changes
> (up till now) seem to have involved catastrophic physical changes in the
> Earth's surface....
>
> My 2c worth...
>
> Cheers.
> Kevin from Wycheproof.
>
> >From: "Michael Thompson"
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To:
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Silent Sentinels...
> >Date: Thu, 20 May 1999 17:46:53 +1000
> >
> >Hi Michael
> >
> >I certainly watched this show. It reminds of the debates regarding global
> >warning that rage on the US weather newsgroups. Mention global warning and
> >you get several self opinioned experts jump on you say that there is no
> >proof that anything has changed.
> >
> >What amazes me is their attitude that climate is stable ! regardless of
> >global warning or a new ice age one thing is certain, the worlds climate
> >has never stood still.
> >
> >On a personal level I do believe that global warming is occurring, but I
> >also believe that climate shifts happen abruptly, not the nice easy
> >transition period of 1000' s of years. The fossil records around the world
> >point to abrupt climate shifts at various times.
> >
> >Michael
> >
> >
> > > Not a joke by any means but something that leaves me feeling totally
> > > bewildered and powerless. We Earth-people are like a marine-emu with
> > > its head stuck firmly into some dead coral. The marine-emu doesn't
> > > exist yet but the dead coral certainly does:-(
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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011
From: "GLENDA JOHN" [glenda at spiderweb.com.au]
To: "aussie weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Details
Date: Thu, 20 May 1999 18:11:46 +1000
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For your information, here are a few more details on name address etc.
Glenda John
MS 316 Cunningham Road Goomboorian Q 4570 - fyi Goomboorian is north east of
Gympie and about halfway between Gympie and Tin Can Bay. Phone is 07 5486
5403. My interest cover a very wide field and it would be hard to say I
have one special interest or hobby. The world is at my feet. My main email
is glenda at spiderweb.com.au - this covers my research on weather observations
and another project I'm working on at the moment - researching the history
behind creek names throughout Australia (not the Sandy, Halfway, Six Mile
etc etc but the ones such as Meteor, Pumpkin Pot, Murdering Hut etc. A big
project but very interesting. I also fit in a bit of travelling as well.
Backpacked through Malaysia earlier this year and found it extremely
interesting. Will go again. Regards to all gj.
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012
From: "GLENDA JOHN" [glenda at spiderweb.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #172
Date: Thu, 20 May 1999 18:25:14 +1000
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A note on plants and trees John, doing strange things before weather
changes - this behaviour has been recorded in native plants usually and more
especially in arid regions. There will be a flush of new growth showing
about a week or so before the rains arrive. During drought periods it is a
very reliable sign to watch for. A lot of the observations on this have
come to me from central South Australia.
Just a note on the wet weather in SE Qld at the moment. For once the BoM
got it right and agreed with the black cockatoos and the ants that rain was
on the way. The cockatoos came in four days ago and the ants started moving
eggs about a week ago. We've had rain, rain and rain with minor flooding
out our way NE Gympie. Beautiful weather. Give credit to the BoM some
times. gj
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013
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Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 18:18:25 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Intense low for the SW on Wednesday?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Jacob
GASP model had the low on wednesday at 990 (i think), certainly will be
interesting if it does form.
Matt Smith
>
>Just was reading the Extended forecast for the SW Land Division in the WA
>section, its possible we could get a severe weather event for the whole
>south-west on Wednesday. This what part of it says:
>
>A developing low pressure system is likely to be located off the
>west coast on Monday. Some cloud should develop in the west, with
>freshening N'ly winds and slightly warmer conditions.
>
> The low is forecast to intensify on Tuesday as it moves towards the
>SW corner. A cold front expected to sweep over the west coast,
>bringing showers to western districts. Some activity may extend
>inland later in the day.
>
> Some computer models are suggesting that the low will be intense and
>slow moving on Wednesday, with very windy conditions over the SW of
>WA.
>
>Jacob
>
>
>
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014
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
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Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 18:20:42 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Forecasting of CAPE + Understanding Skew-T's Page
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Anthony!
Great page!!! now i might have a clue at what im looking at when i glance
at those kind of maps :),ill read over it tonight/tomorrow, at least you
know it has been worth the effort (and if i can understand it you have done
a good job ;)
Matt Smith
>Hi all,
>
>As some of you are aware, I've been experimenting with ways on how we
>can get a CAPE forecast for us CAPEless people here in Australia. I've
>done a small webpage on how you can create a CAPE forecast using
>forecast Skew-T's - the thing was, that the forecast Skew-T's didn't
>have the theoretical air parcel plot overlayed onto them. I've worked
>out a way to calculate this (very simply) and thus enable you to get an
>"accurate approximation" (oxymoron!) of CAPE. Basically, all I did was
>rediscover "Normands Thereom."
>
>It also thoroughly explains how Skew-T's work, so anyone can understand
>it. If you're interested, goto:
>http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/skewt/skewt.html
>If anyone has any comments/suggestions/questions please contact me at
>cyclone at rmitel.com.au as I'm very keen to hear what you have to say.
>(NB - this is a draft, there may be spelling/punctuation errors etc, I
>apologise for this)
>Anthony Cornelius
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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015
From: "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Intense low for the SW on Wednesday?
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 21:27:01 +1200
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> > Some computer models are suggesting that the low will be intense and
> >slow moving on Wednesday, with very windy conditions over the SW of
> >WA.
And a cold outbreak over SW West Australia on Thursday?.
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016
X-Originating-Ip: [203.2.193.71]
From: "Daniel Weatherhead" [dpw14 at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Keep those Vantage Points a Coming!!
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 19:46:30 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hello everyone,
Its great to see those Vantage ppoints continuing to come in.I have been
doing a bit of work but the bulk of it will occur as soon as I've finished
uni this semester which is about 3 weeks away (WOOHOO!!_ but alas, 6
assignments still to go (DOH!!).
ANyway I have started on them and soon I will be posting them on a Webpage
just to see what people think layout wise.
The release date will be probably late winter, I hoping August sometime at
the latest. It will firstly be A5 in format, then as I get around to it, a
dedicted webpage.
Well keep them coming in--remember there is never enough places.
Daniel Weatherhead
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
dpw14 at hotmail.com
______________________________________________________
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017
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 19:51:21 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Silent Sentinels...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
There is no doubt that we have been put on this Earth to take care of
it.
What other species is capable..except that some of them may well put us
to shame!
However I get a bit chuffed when some scientists,especially greenhouse
Americans, start applying different standards of sicentific research
criteria to greenhouse emissions than the ones they apply to other
disciplines.In the case of greenhouse emissions, they are only too
willing to say 'we THINK such and such is the case' or 'there MAY be
this or that'. In other scientific disciplines rigorous, laboratory
proofs are required. This is quite apart from those who are on the
public record as saying that the world's populace has to be scared into
going along with their view by distorting the facts..if they are the
facts in the first place.
Today's world population is the most terrified the world has ever known
because of these doomsayers.
Granted, changes are occurring, and I don't deny mankind's activites
have contributed to coral reef destruction and other things. But
anything coming out of the ABC is, by any fair measure, open to question
when you remember that ,unless my knowledge is out of date, you have to
be dedicated to socialist philosophy to get a job there.
Certain greenhouse scientists will, to me, be a lot more believable when
they come up with irrefutable, hard core evidence , cease and desist
from ad hominem diatribes aimed at all who dare to challenge them and
give equal public exposure to their political motivations...
I'm not seeking to start a 'war' here but I don't believe we get enough
of both sides of the argument, especially in the media.
My one cent's worth...
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
> While I agree in principle with many of the points raised
> e.g. not enough historical record, not enough proof etc.
> It becomes a cyclic arguement without absolute proof that
> it was man's doing. But that will be too late:-(
>
> The most difficult problem is that we don't have a model
> Earth running side-by-side absent of all human kind with
> all their nasty Earth-destroying habits to which we can
> point and say "There, I told you so. See now that coral
> reefs are being destroyed on the Earth-with-people but not
> on the Earth-with-no-people. And, by the way, I can also
> see that more wild species are surviving on the
> Earth-with-no-people also. Look and see!, there's many
> more trees on the Earth-with-no-people and it's cooler
> too..."
>
> While we mightn't have enough PROOF to call it one way or
> another yet, clearly, as "Silent Sentinels" reported,
> damage has been done to the Earth's coral reefs on a scale
> that has not been seen since T-Rex looked up and wondered
> why it was so dark and he was very cold and hungry.
>
> The fact of the matter is that we humans have to live on
> this Earth and take care of it. The fossil record tells
> no lies when it comes to the demise of one or two dominant
> species at the conclusion of each epoch. You might say that
> the metaphor "variety is the spice of life" rings loud and
> clear:-) However, the question in my mind is what form Homo
> Sapien Sapien's demise will take and when it will occur.
>
> But...
>
> Now ridding the Earth of its people burden mightn't be
> such a bad thing for what's left of Earth's life. That
> is provided we don't take 99.49999% of all other species
> with us:-( Fortunately, as the fossil record again shows,
> Life on Earth has always found a way even when 99.5% of
> all species have been rendered extinct. That in itself
> doesn't worry me as I won't be around to witness it, but
> in this case, Earth has evolved a species capable of
> pondering and influencing it's own future. That is
> probably a unique evolutionary experiment for the third
> rock from the Sun. We humans have it within our power
> to change the entire Earth's climate for what is shaping
> up to be the the worse (not for severe weather might I
> add:-). We need to recognise that, develop plans to
> cope with its devestating effects and probably take
> action to mitigate worsening circumstances.
>
> Maybe we should get our marine-emu heads out of the
> dead coral and start to find real solutions that stops
> us becoming the last remaining dominant species (other
> than cockroaches:-) of the current epoch.
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
>
> Michael Thompson wrote on Thu, 20 May 1999 22:45:48 +1000:
> >
> > I never ruled out catastrophic triggers at all, in fact I think they are far
> > more common then we realise, especially volcanoes.
> >
> > Michael
> >
> > Kevin Phyland wrote on Thu, 20 May 1999 04:09:33 PDT
> >
> > > Global warming is very likely happening but I disagree that rapid climate
> > > changes occur WITHOUT some sort of catastrophic trigger.
> > >
> > > i.e. comet/asteroid impact which would obviously affect global weather
> > > dramatically.
> > >
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018
From: Phil Schubert [philip at zedley.com]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Intense low for the SW on Wednesday?
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 18:15:03 -0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
What are the URL's for these models? Would love to see them
----------
>From: Matt Smith
>Sent: Friday, May 21, 1999 4:18 PM
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Intense low for the SW on Wednesday?
Hi Jacob
GASP model had the low on wednesday at 990 (i think), certainly will be
interesting if it does form.
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019
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
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Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 21:12:52 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Intense low for the SW on Wednesday?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Phil
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/medrhp.htm <-- that is the site for GASP, there
is another URL that shows the map "close up" at
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/medr/graphics/mslp.large.gif
Both sites are listed on the weather links on the
"australiansevereweather.simplenet.com" page (along with alot more!)
Matt Smith
>What are the URL's for these models? Would love to see them
>
>----------
>From: Matt Smith
>Sent: Friday, May 21, 1999 4:18 PM
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Intense low for the SW on Wednesday?
>
>Hi Jacob
>
>GASP model had the low on wednesday at 990 (i think), certainly will be
>interesting if it does form.
>
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020
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From: "Daniel Weatherhead" [dpw14 at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Bravo Anthony!!!!!
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 21:41:42 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
This is a great site Anthony!! Congratulations on a great job!! You are
bringing that side of the weather watching to those of us not to fluent in
the technical side of us Thanks again for all the time put into it.Thanks
again Anthony!!!!
Just in case those who missed it
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/skewt/skewt.html
Daniel Weatherhead
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021
From: "Matthew Piper" [mjpiper at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bravo Anthony!!!!!
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 22:11:23 +1000
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Hi Anthony,
Id also like to say well done. Now I can finally decipher whats on a skew-T
diagram.
Matthew Piper
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022
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 22:35:30 +1000
From: Ross Portas [rportas at mindless.com]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bravo Anthony!!!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Another well done from me too, Anthony..... :-)
How long did it take you to write that?
Cheers,
Rosco.
(who is getting mighty pissed off with just getting showers all the time,
instead of proper rain)
Matthew Piper wrote:
> Hi Anthony,
>
> Id also like to say well done. Now I can finally decipher whats on a skew-T
> diagram.
>
> Matthew Piper
>
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023
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Jet Stream charts now on Weather 21
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 17:49:04 +1000
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Just noticed a new jet stream chart on weather 21, great stuff. The chart is
not as complex as those on the US models, but is an advantage if you have to
chase and run, or you want to get a quick overview.
I hope the next step is some sort of weather warnings charts with say areas
under a severe storm advice shaded, like the US weather channel.
If you are reading this Mark, keep up the good work.
Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com
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024
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Forecasting of CAPE + Understanding Skew-T's Page
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 22:49:22 +1000
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Thanks Anthony, I'll be printing these pages to study during my work breaks.
To be honest although I have been chasing since the mid 1970's I have only a
raw knowledge of skew T's, what I mean by that is I know what a storm likely
one looks like from a stable one, in much the same way an illiterate person
can read basic road and shop signs, not by the recognition of letters but
the pattern of familiar words.
Thanks
Michael
> It also thoroughly explains how Skew-T's work, so anyone can understand
> it. If you're interested, goto:
> http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/Cove/1068/skewt/skewt.html
> If anyone has any comments/suggestions/questions please contact me at
> cyclone at rmitel.com.au as I'm very keen to hear what you have to say.
> (NB - this is a draft, there may be spelling/punctuation errors etc, I
> apologise for this)
> Anthony Cornelius
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025
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Silent Sentinels...
Date: Fri, 21 May 1999 22:56:49 +1000
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I often wonder if there are triggers that lead to periods of increased
volcanic activity. It amazes me that there are lava fields SW of Melbourne
around Warrnambool and Colac, these were active only 15,000 years ago. On
the earth clock that is nothing.
In the mid west of the USA hundreds of kilometres east of the nearest
volcanoes there are ash deposits several feet thick, what affect must that
eruption had on the worlds climate.
Michael
> Did a bit of reading today in-between classes on this subject.. found a
> couple of interesting bits and pieces..
>
> As long ago as 1500 BC the eruption of Santorini in the Aegean sea was
> followed by a pronounced global cooling..
>
> Probably the most famous eruption was Tambora in Indonesia in April
> 1815.. This eruption was followed in Europe by "The year without a
> summer".. In this year temperatures at Madras in India unusually passed
> below freezing on several occasions..
>
> More recently in 1982 the eruption of El Chicon in Central America was
> followed by a marked global cooling..
>
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| Document: 990521.htm
Updated: 24 May 1999 |
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