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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Tuesday, 25 May 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
002 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
003 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Possible tornado in Perth
004 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
005 "Patrick Tobin" [pdtobin at hotmail.com] BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
006 "Patrick Tobin" [pdtobin at hotmail.com] Forecasting problems
007 Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au] Forecasting problems
008 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Forecasting problems
009 Chas & Helen Osborn [hosborn at tassie.net.au] Barometric Tide
010 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at nsw.bigpond.net.au] BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
011 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Admin: GIF deanimator (exploder)
012 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at nsw.bigpond.net.au] Barometric Tide
013 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au] (no subject)
014 vortex at wwdg.com New tornado scale???
015 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
016 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] Forecasting problems
017 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
018 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] Models + Forecasting
019 "Peter Tristram" [petertri at midcoast.com.au] Models + Forecasting
020 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Forecasting problems
021 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
022 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Forecasting problems
023 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Forecasting problems
024 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Free radar!
025 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Halos, Coronas, Iridescense, Rainbows, etc
026 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] New tornado scale???
027 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Swell is up and sea fog
028 "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] Free radar!
029 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] State of Origin Wx
030 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) A Basic Problem for the Bureau
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
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Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 05:03:08 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I notice BoM is now issuing forecasts up to 7 days, with days 5 to 7 being
only a brief summary, I had a look around the other 5 major metros and
noticed they all use it too, except for Brisbane?
Also they are using forecast minimums too up to day 4 now for Perth and
Sydney (they've been doing that for Melbourne and Adelaide for a while)
THE FORECAST FOR METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 0455 hours on Tuesday , 25/05/99
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY PERTH
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
The temperature at 05AM was 13.0 degrees Celsius.
Cloudy. A few showers developing, increasing to rain periods during
the day. NE winds tending NW and freshening
Perth MAX: 22
A low developing to the west of Perth will cause a few showers to
develop. As the low nears, showers should tend to rain periods
and persist into Wednesday and Thursday.
OUTLOOKS:
WEDNESDAY: Rain periods, windy. MIN 13 MAX 21
THURSDAY: Showers, windy. MIN 12 MAX 20
FRIDAY: Showers, winds easing. MIN 11 MAX 19
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:
Much finer conditions after this week's wintry spell.
Maxima: about 20 after cool nights.
Jacob
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002
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 10:30:15 +1000
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Hi Jacob,
The media in Brisbane all now provide a 7 day outlook - and I presume that
they must get their info from the BoM.
I watch how the outlook for a particular day changes from the 7 day
estimate as the day approaches. More often than not it cycles right
through Fine/Cloudy/Rain/Fine. So I really wonder weather (sic pun
intended) it is worth it...
Being further North than the other capitals means that Brisbanes weather
tends to be more constant from day to day. If you predict tomorrows
weather based upon todays you are going to be right a very large percentage
of the time and max/mins are usually within 1 or 2 deg. So you would tend
to think that forecasting ahead would be a relatively easy task
particularly given the vastly improved accuracy of the models now used
(GASP did a pretty good job with our current Low). Nevertheless the BoM
have got it spectacularly wrong on occasions even just 24 hours out.
I guess this just goes to show the quickly the situation can change
unexpectedly. Probably partly due to the fact that in Summer, the
difference between devastating storms and a fine day, may be just a few
percent points of moisture which may or may not allow convection to break
through a cap...
John W.
-----Original Message-----
From: Jacob [SMTP:jacob at iinet.net.au]
Sent: Tuesday, 25 May 1999 7:03
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
I notice BoM is now issuing forecasts up to 7 days, with days 5 to 7 being
only a brief summary, I had a look around the other 5 major metros and
noticed they all use it too, except for Brisbane?
Also they are using forecast minimums too up to day 4 now for Perth and
Sydney (they've been doing that for Melbourne and Adelaide for a while)
THE FORECAST FOR METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 0455 hours on Tuesday , 25/05/99
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY PERTH
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
The temperature at 05AM was 13.0 degrees Celsius.
Cloudy. A few showers developing, increasing to rain periods during
the day. NE winds tending NW and freshening
Perth MAX: 22
A low developing to the west of Perth will cause a few showers to
develop. As the low nears, showers should tend to rain periods
and persist into Wednesday and Thursday.
OUTLOOKS:
WEDNESDAY: Rain periods, windy. MIN 13 MAX 21
THURSDAY: Showers, windy. MIN 12 MAX 20
FRIDAY: Showers, winds easing. MIN 11 MAX 19
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:
Much finer conditions after this week's wintry spell.
Maxima: about 20 after cool nights.
Jacob
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003
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Possible tornado in Perth
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 10:41:18 +1000
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Hi Jacob again,
I know that this has been confirmed as non-tornadic, but for your general
amusement, I sent an email to my brother, who like my sister, also happens
to live in Westfield (different street), asking him what he knew about
it... Here is the transcript...
Me: >'Cordin to the aus-wx list, there was a tornadic event in Westfield
today.
Anything ya know about it?
Ummm.... yeah, well I woz up north at the time (Paraburbluddydoo) an I saw
the news, one frantic phone call home appraised me of the fact that no wun
here knew ennything about it, very isolated it seems. Actually was just a
little wind shear (like the sort that troubles aeroplanes from time ter
time) that hit ground and f.....
up a few peoples day.
Shit happens it seems.
David
>snip
Just seen footage on a news update of a street in the southern suburb of
Westfield near Kelmscott, trees on the ground, many homes damaged with
roofs lost, and 1 home was almost totally destroyed. Channel 7 said it was
a "mini tornado", so we'll have to wait and see for more damage reports to
see if it was a tornado or not.
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004
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 10:40:28 +1000 (EST)
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>
> Hi Jacob,
>
> The media in Brisbane all now provide a 7 day outlook - and I presume that
> they must get their info from the BoM.
You presume incorrectly - they get the 5-7 day forecast from private
operators. (I think Channel 7 gets theirs from WeatherNews International
and Channel 9 from the NZ MetService - don't know about Channel 10).
> I watch how the outlook for a particular day changes from the 7 day
> estimate as the day approaches. More often than not it cycles right
> through Fine/Cloudy/Rain/Fine. So I really wonder weather (sic pun
> intended) it is worth it...
You're not alone in this department...
(I understand that, in Melbourne at least, 6-7 day forecasts - both
the WNI ones and the BoM's internal products - were performing
significantly worse than climatology - which may explain why Melbourne
doesn't appear to have introduced the 5-7 day 'trend' forecasts).
> Being further North than the other capitals means that Brisbanes weather
> tends to be more constant from day to day. If you predict tomorrows
> weather based upon todays you are going to be right a very large percentage
> of the time and max/mins are usually within 1 or 2 deg. So you would tend
> to think that forecasting ahead would be a relatively easy task
> particularly given the vastly improved accuracy of the models now used
> (GASP did a pretty good job with our current Low). Nevertheless the BoM
> have got it spectacularly wrong on occasions even just 24 hours out.
Two of the standard benchmarks for assessing forecasts are whether
they perform better than persistence (i.e. forecasting that tomorrow
will be the same as today) or climatology (forecasting that every
day will be average).
> I guess this just goes to show the quickly the situation can change
> unexpectedly. Probably partly due to the fact that in Summer, the
> difference between devastating storms and a fine day, may be just a few
> percent points of moisture which may or may not allow convection to break
> through a cap...
>
> John W.
At anything other than short range the best you can really hope for with
storms is determining which regions have a high/medium/low probability
- as most of us would know, even in the most significant thunderstorm
situations there are areas that miss out.
Darwin (where, in summer at least, the presence/absence of convective
activity is the main source of interdiurnal variability) don't put
out extended forecasts, presumably for this reason. (It is a standing
joke amongst meteorologists that there are only three forecasts in
Darwin: 32 and fine, 32 and afternoon storms, and 29 and rain periods).
Blair Trewin
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005
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From: "Patrick Tobin" [pdtobin at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
Date: Mon, 24 May 1999 18:14:39 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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The ACT BoM has just started issuing 7 day trend forecasts
today.
One aspect that has always intrigued me is the issue of
consistency in forecasting between regions. Sometimes
it seems like the forecast policy is for different planets.
I guess this has always been so but the advent of the net
has made this more obvious to outsiders.
The forecast notes from Victoria and NSW for later in the week
issue this morning (Tuesday,25 May 1999) are good examples of
this phenomenon....
Victoria
On Thursday the deep low will begin moving over the Bight. After morning fog
patches, the day will be fine apart from isolated showers in coastal areas.
Winds should be northwest to westerly.
NSW
Thursday 27/05/99 9am
On Thursday a cold front should enter the west of the state bringing
showers and thunderstorms and freshening northwest winds to inland
parts, possibly reaching the coast south from the Hunter late in the
day. It should be fine in the northeast. Above average temperatures
are likely across the state.
VIC
During Friday the low will move southeastwards towards Tasmania.
Mild north to northwesterly winds will freshen and patchy rain is likely to
develop across western and central areas of the State.
NSW
Friday 28/05/99 9am
On Friday the front will move into the east of the state bringing
some patchy rain and isolated showers to the east and clearing the
weather from the west. Temperatures should be significantly cooler
through most parts on Friday.
Meanwhile the ACT forecast is...
Thursday : Mainly fine. Cold night
Min: -2 Max: 17
Friday : Mainly fine
Min: 3 Max: 17
The ACT forecast seems more in line with the Victorian forecast
policy but presumably is linked organisationally to the NSW office?
(The words "Mainly fine", of course allow maximum flexibility to
await developments...)
I can imagine some of these consistency problems must cause some
real problems in border areas at times.
Patrick
BTW Higgins in NW Canberra received 7mm last night from the
SA/Western Vic low.
______________________________________________________
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006
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From: "Patrick Tobin" [pdtobin at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Forecasting problems
Date: Mon, 24 May 1999 18:41:30 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Speaking of forecasting difficulties and model output,
I noted an interesting statement on the technical
advice that is posted on the BoM goper server this morning.
I found this particularly interesting in terms of the
issuing of 5-7 day trend outlooks.
Patrick
PROG BULLETIN SPECIAL FOR LAPS PROG BASED 1200 UTC 24 MAY 1999:
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE LOCAL MODELS HAVE FAILED
ABSOLUTELY TO ANYWHERE NEAR PROPERLY ANALYSE, MUCH LESS PREDICT,
THE DEPRESSION IN THE CORAL / TASMAN SEA. TONIGHT THIS HAS BEEN
DESPITE THE BEST INTENTIONS OF THE DUTY STAFF, WHOSE PSEUDO-
OBSERVATION INPUT PRODUCED AN INITIAL PRODUCT CLOSELY REPRESENTING
THE MANUAL ANALYSIS ISSUED AT 1415 UTC. DISCUSSIONS WITH THE
MODELLERS DURING THE DAY CONFIRMED THE VERY LOW WEIGHTING NOW
AFFORDED PSEUDO DATA, BUT APPARENTLY FAILED TO RESOLVE THE REASON(S)
FOR HARD DATA BEING IGNORED. SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENTATION REGARDING
TONIGHT'S RUN WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE TO THEM TOMORROW.
IN THE MEANTIME THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THIS AREA OF THE CHART
SHOULD BE TREATED WITH GRAVE SUSPICION, INCLUDING THE OCEANOGRAPHIC
OUTPUT AND PROBABLY THE GASP OUTPUT AS WELL.
SHIFT SUPERVISOR
24/1535 UTC
NMOC MELBOURNE
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007
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Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 12:02:33 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Chris Maunder [cmaunder at dynamite.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Forecasting problems
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Someone really needs to learn about that "Caps lock" button :)
Hope they sort this one out. I'm a modeller myself, so I can
relate to the hassles the modellers are going through, but it
sounds like they're a bit out of whack this time.
Chris
At 11:41 25/05/99 , you wrote:
>Speaking of forecasting difficulties and model output,
>I noted an interesting statement on the technical
>advice that is posted on the BoM goper server this morning.
>I found this particularly interesting in terms of the
>issuing of 5-7 day trend outlooks.
>
>Patrick
>
>PROG BULLETIN SPECIAL FOR LAPS PROG BASED 1200 UTC 24 MAY 1999:
>FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE LOCAL MODELS HAVE FAILED
>ABSOLUTELY TO ANYWHERE NEAR PROPERLY ANALYSE, MUCH LESS PREDICT,
>THE DEPRESSION IN THE CORAL / TASMAN SEA. TONIGHT THIS HAS BEEN
>DESPITE THE BEST INTENTIONS OF THE DUTY STAFF, WHOSE PSEUDO-
>OBSERVATION INPUT PRODUCED AN INITIAL PRODUCT CLOSELY REPRESENTING
>THE MANUAL ANALYSIS ISSUED AT 1415 UTC. DISCUSSIONS WITH THE
>MODELLERS DURING THE DAY CONFIRMED THE VERY LOW WEIGHTING NOW
>AFFORDED PSEUDO DATA, BUT APPARENTLY FAILED TO RESOLVE THE REASON(S)
>FOR HARD DATA BEING IGNORED. SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENTATION REGARDING
>TONIGHT'S RUN WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE TO THEM TOMORROW.
>IN THE MEANTIME THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THIS AREA OF THE CHART
>SHOULD BE TREATED WITH GRAVE SUSPICION, INCLUDING THE OCEANOGRAPHIC
>OUTPUT AND PROBABLY THE GASP OUTPUT AS WELL.
>SHIFT SUPERVISOR
>24/1535 UTC
>NMOC MELBOURNE
>
>
>
>______________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
Chris Maunder (Canberra)
http://www.geocities.com/SiliconValley/Haven/2473/
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008
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Forecasting problems
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 12:24:57 +1000 (EST)
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>
> Speaking of forecasting difficulties and model output,
> I noted an interesting statement on the technical
> advice that is posted on the BoM goper server this morning.
> I found this particularly interesting in terms of the
> issuing of 5-7 day trend outlooks.
>
> Patrick
>
> PROG BULLETIN SPECIAL FOR LAPS PROG BASED 1200 UTC 24 MAY 1999:
> FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE LOCAL MODELS HAVE FAILED
> ABSOLUTELY TO ANYWHERE NEAR PROPERLY ANALYSE, MUCH LESS PREDICT,
> THE DEPRESSION IN THE CORAL / TASMAN SEA. TONIGHT THIS HAS BEEN
> DESPITE THE BEST INTENTIONS OF THE DUTY STAFF, WHOSE PSEUDO-
> OBSERVATION INPUT PRODUCED AN INITIAL PRODUCT CLOSELY REPRESENTING
> THE MANUAL ANALYSIS ISSUED AT 1415 UTC. DISCUSSIONS WITH THE
> MODELLERS DURING THE DAY CONFIRMED THE VERY LOW WEIGHTING NOW
> AFFORDED PSEUDO DATA, BUT APPARENTLY FAILED TO RESOLVE THE REASON(S)
> FOR HARD DATA BEING IGNORED. SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENTATION REGARDING
> TONIGHT'S RUN WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE TO THEM TOMORROW.
> IN THE MEANTIME THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THIS AREA OF THE CHART
> SHOULD BE TREATED WITH GRAVE SUSPICION, INCLUDING THE OCEANOGRAPHIC
> OUTPUT AND PROBABLY THE GASP OUTPUT AS WELL.
> SHIFT SUPERVISOR
> 24/1535 UTC
> NMOC MELBOURNE
The prog bulletin is often a good place to look for a frank
discussion of the inadequacies of a particular model run, but
they're not usually this frank!
Seriously, the models are all over the place - depending on who you
believe the next front could come through SE Australia any time between
Thursday and Sunday.
Blair Trewin
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009
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 13:43:37 +1000
From: Chas & Helen Osborn [hosborn at tassie.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.51 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Barometric Tide
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hello Everyone
Macquarie Harbour has what is called a barometric tide. The entrance to
the harbour (Hells Gates named by the convicts on the way to Sarah
Island) faces toward the Northwest and is very narrow (The main channel
is only 50m wide). With the approach of a low pressure system the winds
swing into the north west this pushes water into the harbour. Two of
Tasmania's highest flow rivers, Gordon and King, lesser rivers, Braddon
Bird and Birch plus numerous creeks empty into the harbour and with the
blocking action of the north west wind help produce a higher tide.
What I would like to know is what effect does lower air pressure have on
producing a high tide? Most low pressure systems would not produce a air
pressure below 990hpa how much of a rise would that cause?
Chas
Strahan Tasmania
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010
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From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at nsw.bigpond.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 13:30:31 +1000
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Blair
Channel 10 obtain their 7 day forecast from us. The appearance of trends has
not resulted in the media cancelling their commerical products. I guess they
prefer the more structured format over the vague trendy thingy the BoM have
implemented.
Cheers, Mark
__________________________
The Weather Company
mhardy at theweather.com.au
Level 2, 7 West Street North Sydney
Ph: 02 9955 7704
Fax: 02 9280 1882
__________________________
-----Original Message-----
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Tuesday, 25 May 1999 10:49
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
|>
|> Hi Jacob,
|>
|> The media in Brisbane all now provide a 7 day outlook - and I presume
that
|> they must get their info from the BoM.
|
|You presume incorrectly - they get the 5-7 day forecast from private
|operators. (I think Channel 7 gets theirs from WeatherNews International
|and Channel 9 from the NZ MetService - don't know about Channel 10).
|
|> I watch how the outlook for a particular day changes from the 7 day
|> estimate as the day approaches. More often than not it cycles right
|> through Fine/Cloudy/Rain/Fine. So I really wonder weather (sic pun
|> intended) it is worth it...
|
|You're not alone in this department...
|
|(I understand that, in Melbourne at least, 6-7 day forecasts - both
|the WNI ones and the BoM's internal products - were performing
|significantly worse than climatology - which may explain why Melbourne
|doesn't appear to have introduced the 5-7 day 'trend' forecasts).
|
|> Being further North than the other capitals means that Brisbanes weather
|> tends to be more constant from day to day. If you predict tomorrows
|> weather based upon todays you are going to be right a very large
percentage
|> of the time and max/mins are usually within 1 or 2 deg. So you would
tend
|> to think that forecasting ahead would be a relatively easy task
|> particularly given the vastly improved accuracy of the models now used
|> (GASP did a pretty good job with our current Low). Nevertheless the BoM
|> have got it spectacularly wrong on occasions even just 24 hours out.
|
|Two of the standard benchmarks for assessing forecasts are whether
|they perform better than persistence (i.e. forecasting that tomorrow
|will be the same as today) or climatology (forecasting that every
|day will be average).
|
|> I guess this just goes to show the quickly the situation can change
|> unexpectedly. Probably partly due to the fact that in Summer, the
|> difference between devastating storms and a fine day, may be just a few
|> percent points of moisture which may or may not allow convection to break
|> through a cap...
|>
|> John W.
|
|At anything other than short range the best you can really hope for with
|storms is determining which regions have a high/medium/low probability
|- as most of us would know, even in the most significant thunderstorm
|situations there are areas that miss out.
|
|Darwin (where, in summer at least, the presence/absence of convective
|activity is the main source of interdiurnal variability) don't put
|out extended forecasts, presumably for this reason. (It is a standing
|joke amongst meteorologists that there are only three forecasts in
|Darwin: 32 and fine, 32 and afternoon storms, and 29 and rain periods).
|
|Blair Trewin
|
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| To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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011
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 14:44:36 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Admin: GIF deanimator (exploder)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Interested people,
With the help of a great colleague who's really into Linux, I've
successfully downloaded, compiled and installed a couple of
very useful utilities that can be driven from a script or command
line. My long-awaited-for-and-free-gif-deanimator (exploder) has
arrived!
http://www.lcdf.org/gifsicle/
This is really useful for those people who work with various
versions of UNIX. There's a myriad of products for DOS/Windows
all with the same problem - they require a person to drive them...
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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012
X-Bpc-Relay-Envelope-From: mhardy at nsw.bigpond.net.au
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X-Bpc-Relay-Info: Message delivered directly.
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at nsw.bigpond.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Barometric Tide
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 14:25:52 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.5
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Chas
Just guessimating, but a 10HPa drop in pressure should give a 10cm rise in
sea level.
Mark
-----Original Message-----
From: Chas & Helen Osborn [hosborn at tassie.net.au]
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Tuesday, 25 May 1999 13:56
Subject: aus-wx: Barometric Tide
|Hello Everyone
|
|Macquarie Harbour has what is called a barometric tide. The entrance to
|the harbour (Hells Gates named by the convicts on the way to Sarah
|Island) faces toward the Northwest and is very narrow (The main channel
|is only 50m wide). With the approach of a low pressure system the winds
|swing into the north west this pushes water into the harbour. Two of
|Tasmania's highest flow rivers, Gordon and King, lesser rivers, Braddon
|Bird and Birch plus numerous creeks empty into the harbour and with the
|blocking action of the north west wind help produce a higher tide.
|What I would like to know is what effect does lower air pressure have on
|producing a high tide? Most low pressure systems would not produce a air
|pressure below 990hpa how much of a rise would that cause?
|
|Chas
|Strahan Tasmania
|
|
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013
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 14:50:42 -0812
Subject: aus-wx: Accuracy of 7 day forecasts
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Blair
Dave Williams (a keen verifier of forecasts) recently analysed the 7 day
forecasts shown on all the Sydney commercial stations. What the results
show is that it is possible to beat climatology out to 7 days but the models
need to be interpreted with care. It may also show that doing Aussie
forecasts from NZ is not such a good idea after all.
Mark
+7 day forecasts for Sydney issued by Commercial TV stations.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
! ! ! ! Forecast ! Error !
! Issue Date ! Observation ! Climatology ! 7 ! 9 ! 10 ! 7 ! 9 ! 10 !
------------------------------------------------------------------------
! 3/ 3/1999 ! 28 ! 25 ! 29 ! 28 ! 27 ! 1 ! 0 ! -1 !
! 4/ 3/1999 ! 23 ! 25 ! 22 ! 28 ! 23 ! -1 ! 5 ! 0 !
! 5/ 3/1999 ! 25 ! 25 ! 22 ! 27 ! 25 ! -3 ! 2 ! 0 !
! 8/ 3/1999 ! 27 ! 25 ! 23 ! 24 ! 25 ! -4 ! -3 ! -2 !
! 9/ 3/1999 ! 26 ! 25 ! 23 ! 24 ! 25 ! -3 ! -2 ! -1 !
! 10/ 3/1999 ! 26 ! 25 ! 23 ! 21 ! 24 ! -3 ! -5 ! -2 !
! 11/ 3/1999 ! 26 ! 24 ! 23 ! 21 ! 24 ! -3 ! -5 ! -2 !
! 15/ 3/1999 ! 25 ! 24 ! 25 ! 30 ! 27 ! 0 ! 5 ! 2 !
! 16/ 3/1999 ! 23 ! 24 ! 27 ! 32 ! 24 ! 4 ! 9 ! 1 !
! 17/ 3/1999 ! 24 ! 24 ! 26 ! 24 ! 23 ! 2 ! 0 ! -1 !
! 18/ 3/1999 ! 26 ! 24 ! 24 ! 24 ! 25 ! -2 ! -2 ! -1 !
! 19/ 3/1999 ! 28 ! 24 ! 30 ! 28 ! 26 ! 2 ! 0 ! -2 !
! 22/ 3/1999 ! 22 ! 24 ! 24 ! 25 ! 24 ! 2 ! 3 ! 2 !
! 23/ 3/1999 ! 23 ! 24 ! 25 ! 27 ! 25 ! 2 ! 4 ! 2 !
! 24/ 3/1999 ! 23 ! 24 ! 26 ! 26 ! 23 ! 3 ! 3 ! 0 !
! 25/ 3/1999 ! 18 ! 23 ! 23 ! 27 ! 23 ! 5 ! 9 ! 5 !
! 29/ 3/1999 ! 20 ! 23 ! 25 ! 27 ! 24 ! 5 ! 7 ! 4 !
! 30/ 3/1999 ! 24 ! 23 ! 26 ! 28 ! 23 ! 2 ! 4 ! -1 !
! 31/ 3/1999 ! 21 ! 23 ! 23 ! 24 ! 22 ! 2 ! 3 ! 1 !
! 1/ 4/1999 ! 23 ! 23 ! 23 ! 26 ! 21 ! 0 ! 3 ! -2 !
! 5/ 4/1999 ! 24 ! 22 ! 24 ! 21 ! 24 ! 0 ! -3 ! 0 !
! 6/ 4/1999 ! 26 ! 22 ! 20 ! 21 ! 21 ! -6 ! -5 ! -5 !
! 7/ 4/1999 ! 26 ! 22 ! 21 ! 23 ! 21 ! -5 ! -3 ! -5 !
! 8/ 4/1999 ! 23 ! 22 ! 22 ! 24 ! 21 ! -1 ! 1 ! -2 !
! 9/ 4/1999 ! 22 ! 22 ! 22 ! 23 ! 21 ! 0 ! 1 ! -1 !
! 12/ 4/1999 ! 27 ! 22 ! 24 ! 23 ! 24 ! -3 ! -4 ! -3 !
! 13/ 4/1999 ! 27 ! 22 ! 24 ! 24 ! 24 ! -3 ! -3 ! -3 !
! 14/ 4/1999 ! 18 ! 22 ! 22 ! 23 ! 21 ! 4 ! 5 ! 3 !
! 16/ 4/1999 ! 18 ! 21 ! 25 ! 24 ! 22 ! 7 ! 6 ! 4 !
! 19/ 4/1999 ! 24 ! 21 ! 21 ! 24 ! 24 ! -3 ! 0 ! 0 !
! 20/ 4/1999 ! 19 ! 21 ! 22 ! 25 ! 22 ! 3 ! 6 ! 3 !
! 22/ 4/1999 ! 17 ! 21 ! 19 ! 20 ! 19 ! 2 ! 3 ! 2 !
! 23/ 4/1999 ! 19 ! 21 ! 18 ! 20 ! 18 ! -1 ! 1 ! -1 !
! 26/ 4/1999 ! 23 ! 20 ! 20 ! 21 ! 21 ! -3 ! -2 ! -2 !
! 27/ 4/1999 ! 23 ! 20 ! 21 ! 22 ! 21 ! -2 ! -1 ! -2 !
! 28/ 4/1999 ! 21 ! 20 ! 22 ! 22 ! 22 ! 1 ! 1 ! 1 !
! 29/ 4/1999 ! 21 ! 20 ! 23 ! 23 ! 23 ! 2 ! 2 ! 2 !
! 30/ 4/1999 ! 23 ! 20 ! 23 ! 23 ! 23 ! 0 ! 0 ! 0 !
! 3/ 5/1999 ! 18 ! 20 ! 18 ! 18 ! 20 ! 0 ! 0 ! 2 !
! 4/ 5/1999 ! 19 ! 20 ! 20 ! 20 ! 19 ! 1 ! 1 ! 0 !
! 5/ 5/1999 ! 24 ! 20 ! 22 ! 20 ! 21 ! -2 ! -4 ! -3 !
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summary Statistics.
--------------------------------------------------------------
! Statistic ! Chan. 7 ! Chan. 9 ! Chan. 10 !
--------------------------------------------------------------
! Number of points: ! 41 ! 41 ! 41 !
! Average forecast: ! 23.05 ! 24.02 ! 22.80 !
! Average observation: ! 23.00 ! 23.00 ! 23.00 !
! Forecast bias: ! 0.05 ! 1.02 ! -0.20 !
! Average climatology: ! 22.49 ! 22.49 ! 22.49 !
! Climatology bias: ! -0.51 ! -0.51 ! -0.51 !
! RMSE (forecasts): ! 2.913 ! 3.838 ! 2.306 !
! RMSE (climatology): ! 2.637 ! 2.637 ! 2.637 !
! Skill Score: ! -0.221 ! -1.119 ! 0.235 !
! Error - 0: ! 6 ! 6 ! 7 !
! 1: ! 6 ! 6 ! 10 !
! 2: ! 11 ! 5 ! 14 !
! 3: ! 10 ! 9 ! 5 !
! 4: ! 3 ! 4 ! 2 !
! 5: ! 3 ! 6 ! 3 !
! 6: ! 1 ! 2 ! 0 !
! >6: ! 1 ! 3 ! 0 !
--------------------------------------------------------------
--
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company
Information Media Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________
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014
From: vortex at wwdg.com
Date: Mon, 24 May 1999 23:36:14 -0600
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: New tornado scale???
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey All. Found this on WX-Chase
B-O: "lookit thet dust devil"
B-1: "Gol-dang! lookit thet dust devil"
B-2: "Maw! Come lookit this dust devil"
B-3: "Son! lookit thet dust devil - Close the truck windows"
B-4: "DAMN thet's a bigass dust devil"
B-5: "Lookit thet dust devil - it done got ole Yella.
Maybe the media is using this scale instead of the Fujita scale???
Paul Yole
2 McDonald Street
Murtoa. Vic. 3390
Australia
Phone: (035) 385 2699
Mobile: 0419 367 920
Email: vortex at wwdg.com
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015
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 15:51:28 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > I guess this just goes to show the quickly the situation can change
> > unexpectedly. Probably partly due to the fact that in Summer, the
> > difference between devastating storms and a fine day, may be just a few
> > percent points of moisture which may or may not allow convection to break
> > through a cap...
> >
> > John W.
>
> At anything other than short range the best you can really hope for with
> storms is determining which regions have a high/medium/low probability
> - as most of us would know, even in the most significant thunderstorm
> situations there are areas that miss out.
>
> Darwin (where, in summer at least, the presence/absence of convective
> activity is the main source of interdiurnal variability) don't put
> out extended forecasts, presumably for this reason. (It is a standing
> joke amongst meteorologists that there are only three forecasts in
> Darwin: 32 and fine, 32 and afternoon storms, and 29 and rain periods).
In regards to forecasting of thunderstorms, it is a very difficult
situation to forecast. Brisbane really is a huge city (land wise)
almost 100km N-S!! It's certainly quite possible for one part of
Brisbane to receive thunderstorms, and the other part not to. The other
thing that makes it difficult, is the our beloved border ranges. It can
be difficult to assess just how much influence will be created by the
border ranges, they often help break the caps - but then we have a
multitude of other factors that can go wrong, such as:
- will the temperature be high enough at the surface?
- will there be enough moisture? (as you pointed out)
- will the NE winds be strong enough, to assist in "forcing" the air
above the ranges
- what way will the storms move? will the collapse off the ranges (as
most of them do)? or will it be able to maintain itself in a highly
capped environment and move NE? E? S!?
I personally believe, that forecasting in a district is far better, the
US often forecasts in counties, and this gives a general idea of what
will happen. I think that if the BoM forecasts a "possible storm" for
Brisbane, and there's thunderstorms somewhere in QLD, that it is
accurate enough. I've often had lots of people tell me "whenever the
BoM forecasts showers, it'll be sunny!" Presumably this is from
"coastal shower" situations that occur here with a relatively high
freqeuncy, these are VERY 'touch and go' 90% of Brisbane would probably
be uneffected, and 8% might get some light rain for a short period of
time, and the remaining 2% might get the showers. This creates a
dilema, do they say "fine" or "mostly fine" or "coastal fringe
showers"? My reply to these people who criticize forecasts for showers
is "well, what do you want them to say? It'll be sunny along Old
Cleveland Road, but as you approach Stanley St you can expect a shower
or two, and residents who live on Vulture St can expect a few showers?"
Blair is quite right...during the Oct 13 hailstorm + supercell
'outbreak' (tornadoes too?? maybe!) the Gold Coast received nothing,
while the rest of SE QLD received damaging hail/wind
squalls/flooding/tornadoes - but was the forecast for the Gold Coast
incorrect? I certainly don't think so! But I everyone has their own
opinions on accuracy.
Anthony Cornelius
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016
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 16:02:56 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Forecasting problems
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Sooner or later some one had to bring this up! But "chaos" obviously
plays a large part in the inaccuracy of the forecast models, some of
them just cannot handle this, and really - there is never going to be a
way around chaos. This is where I believe more study should be placed
into the studying of cloud patterns/sat pics etc as I'm a very firm
believer in using current observations and "gut knowledge" over forecast
models. Certainly, I'm not suggesting by no means that this task would
be easy - on the contrary it would be an absolutely monumental task!
But if you think of it this way...if you look at radar, you can only get
an approximate idea whether this storm is severe or not (you can be sure
about 80-90% of times) if you look at the actual storm itself, you can
immediately assess its strength by looking at it's structure etc...this
same application I believe, can and should be used on a macro-scale.
The other thing that could have a large part to play in some of the
models being inaccurate, is the large gaps in available data. So often
we can see small systems "slip" by and undetected by sparse and limited
sounding stations (eg, small pool of cold air) and they may do nothing
over a certain area, but then when they unexpectedly meet an area of
high vorcity, or warmth and moisture for example - they could suddenly
produce some thunderstorms.
Forecasting though, is certainly no easy feat - you can spend hours
looking over models, but if the models are wrong, then ulimately you are
wrong. The other key is experience, however I'm fairly sure many of the
BoM forecasters have plenty of this.
Anthony Cornelius
Blair Trewin wrote:
>
> >
> > Speaking of forecasting difficulties and model output,
> > I noted an interesting statement on the technical
> > advice that is posted on the BoM goper server this morning.
> > I found this particularly interesting in terms of the
> > issuing of 5-7 day trend outlooks.
> >
> > Patrick
> >
> > PROG BULLETIN SPECIAL FOR LAPS PROG BASED 1200 UTC 24 MAY 1999:
> > FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE LOCAL MODELS HAVE FAILED
> > ABSOLUTELY TO ANYWHERE NEAR PROPERLY ANALYSE, MUCH LESS PREDICT,
> > THE DEPRESSION IN THE CORAL / TASMAN SEA. TONIGHT THIS HAS BEEN
> > DESPITE THE BEST INTENTIONS OF THE DUTY STAFF, WHOSE PSEUDO-
> > OBSERVATION INPUT PRODUCED AN INITIAL PRODUCT CLOSELY REPRESENTING
> > THE MANUAL ANALYSIS ISSUED AT 1415 UTC. DISCUSSIONS WITH THE
> > MODELLERS DURING THE DAY CONFIRMED THE VERY LOW WEIGHTING NOW
> > AFFORDED PSEUDO DATA, BUT APPARENTLY FAILED TO RESOLVE THE REASON(S)
> > FOR HARD DATA BEING IGNORED. SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENTATION REGARDING
> > TONIGHT'S RUN WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE TO THEM TOMORROW.
> > IN THE MEANTIME THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THIS AREA OF THE CHART
> > SHOULD BE TREATED WITH GRAVE SUSPICION, INCLUDING THE OCEANOGRAPHIC
> > OUTPUT AND PROBABLY THE GASP OUTPUT AS WELL.
> > SHIFT SUPERVISOR
> > 24/1535 UTC
> > NMOC MELBOURNE
>
> The prog bulletin is often a good place to look for a frank
> discussion of the inadequacies of a particular model run, but
> they're not usually this frank!
>
> Seriously, the models are all over the place - depending on who you
> believe the next front could come through SE Australia any time between
> Thursday and Sunday.
>
> Blair Trewin
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017
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 16:11:27 +1000
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Ben from Brisbane here..
John Woodbridge wrote:
>
> Hi Jacob,
>
> The media in Brisbane all now provide a 7 day outlook - and I presume that
> they must get their info from the BoM.
>
> I watch how the outlook for a particular day changes from the 7 day
> estimate as the day approaches. More often than not it cycles right
> through Fine/Cloudy/Rain/Fine. So I really wonder weather (sic pun
> intended) it is worth it...
>
> Being further North than the other capitals means that Brisbanes weather
> tends to be more constant from day to day. If you predict tomorrows
> weather based upon todays you are going to be right a very large percentage
> of the time and max/mins are usually within 1 or 2 deg. So you would tend
> to think that forecasting ahead would be a relatively easy task
> particularly given the vastly improved accuracy of the models now used
> (GASP did a pretty good job with our current Low). Nevertheless the BoM
> have got it spectacularly wrong on occasions even just 24 hours out.
My opinion is that is very much far from the truth, all i can say is
have a go.. the Brisbane Storm Chasers Homepage (will be up soon) will
feature a forecasts section, you are more than welcome to put your
forecasts up on there.. Anthony Cornelius and myself will already be
issuing forecasts on the site, and possibly some other people..
> I guess this just goes to show the quickly the situation can change
> unexpectedly. Probably partly due to the fact that in Summer, the
> difference between devastating storms and a fine day, may be just a few
> percent points of moisture which may or may not allow convection to break
> through a cap...
As a few people have already said, the models have just been all over
the place the last few weeks.. in fact, i haven't had the time to
properly go through all of them simply because making a forecast from
them is quite time consuming at the moment.. even AVN is all over the
place! I have been told by a few people that this time of year is just a
bad time of the year for models..
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018
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 16:21:43 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Models + Forecasting
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Additionally, you have to remember the time of year it is...I noticed in
Spring, the models were very inaccurate, but during summer, they
'stabilised' and were somewhat more reliable then Spring. Again, as we
went through Autumn, I've seen the same thing happen, they've gone
'haywiere' - there are many more variables that can easily go wrong in
cooler months (cold air is certainly very unpredictable!) but also,
Autumn and Spring are changing seasons, it's the time when the weather
is at its most variable. When the weather begins to "stabilize" you'll
also see the models do the same thing.
On the note of whether 5-7 day forecasts should be included, well - I
personally don't take too much note of +120 to +144hrs, and around
+96hrs is "iffy" but within 72hrs, you'll generally find that the models
handle much better - again, this comes into the theory of chaos.
I think that trend forecasts are much better (like the BoM is doing now
for some cities!) certainly, it is a ludicrous idea proposing that you
can accurately forecast that far ahead for temps/physical conditions,
but something like:
BRISBANE METROPOLITAN AREA:
MONDAY - Chance of a late thunderstorm 32C
TUESDAY - Late thunderstorm 33C
WEDNESDAY - Possible Supercells 35C [>:-)]
THURSDAY - Sunny 31C
Outlook: NE winds should return during the weekend, if this occurs there
is a renewed chance of thunderstorms.
This clearly shows some "leeway" in forecasting...when during the
weekend? What happens if NE winds don't happen? What happens if they
do? It leaves it open...but gives the general public an idea of what to
expect.
Not sure if I've been too vague with my point here, but basically, I
think trend forecasts are certainly the way to go over "fixed forecasts"
for the longer term.
Anthony Cornelius
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019
From: "Peter Tristram" [petertri at midcoast.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Models + Forecasting
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 17:11:07 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id RAA01382
First fine day after 6 days, but the low stayed too far out for prolonged heavy rain. Saturday produced falls to around 50mm around Coffs including some very local flooding during heavier showers. The ocean gave the best display with almost cyclonic swells - must have been windy off to our north-east!
Off the topic of weather, does anyone know how to configure Outlook Express to sort email?
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020
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Forecasting problems
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 07:09:47 GMT
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On Tue, 25 May 1999 12:24:57 +1000 (EST), Blair Trewin
wrote:
>
>The prog bulletin is often a good place to look for a frank
>discussion of the inadequacies of a particular model run, but
>they're not usually this frank!
>
A bit sad that, when the gopher ultimately dies, this will die with
it. Compared to the US NWS, which is very forthcoming in its
availability and depth of forecast policy analysis, the Australian
public is treated pretty simplistically by the Bureau's public "Notes
on the Weather".
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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021
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BoM new 7 day trend forecasts
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 07:09:45 GMT
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On Tue, 25 May 1999 05:03:08 +0800, Jacob wrote:
>
>I notice BoM is now issuing forecasts up to 7 days, with days 5 to 7 being
>only a brief summary, I had a look around the other 5 major metros and
>noticed they all use it too, except for Brisbane?
My understanding is that all state RFCs will be issuing forecasts up
to 7 days, and not just for the capital cities. However, it will take
some time for all states to cut into the new format.
If you're interested in forecast verification statistics, Dave
Williams, formerly of the Bureau and an absolute verification whiz,
maintains and periodically updates verification stats for many Bureau
and competing products on my website -- from the main menu go to
Forecast Weather --> Forecast Verification.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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022
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 17:31:26 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Forecasting problems
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Laurier Williams wrote on Tue, 25 May 1999 07:09:47 GMT:
>
> On Tue, 25 May 1999 12:24:57 +1000 (EST), Blair Trewin
> wrote:
>
> >
> >The prog bulletin is often a good place to look for a frank
> >discussion of the inadequacies of a particular model run, but
> >they're not usually this frank!
> >
> A bit sad that, when the gopher ultimately dies, this will die with
> it. Compared to the US NWS, which is very forthcoming in its
> availability and depth of forecast policy analysis, the Australian
> public is treated pretty simplistically by the Bureau's public "Notes
> on the Weather".
Might I add that orgs like ASWA owe their inception in part to the
lack of sufficient info from the BoM to fuel their (now) members
appetite. Perhaps we need to work out the best way of lobbying the
BoM (and Australian Government) to meet at least World's-Best-
Practice when it comes to the availability of its products and
analysis of the same. This is not meaning to be too critical of
the BoM since they are only guilty of implementing Federal
Government policy with budget. Merely, that the BoM could benefit
greatly by opening its doors initially in a selective manner, then
leaving them as wide open as the US NWS when they are more
comfortable. Such a policy can only improve media and public
perception of their product when it is compared side-by-side with
comparable product from orgs like "The Weather Company"...
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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023
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Forecasting problems
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 17:48:58 +1000 (EST)
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>
> Laurier Williams wrote on Tue, 25 May 1999 07:09:47 GMT:
> >
>
> Might I add that orgs like ASWA owe their inception in part to the
> lack of sufficient info from the BoM to fuel their (now) members
> appetite. Perhaps we need to work out the best way of lobbying the
> BoM (and Australian Government) to meet at least World's-Best-
> Practice when it comes to the availability of its products and
> analysis of the same. This is not meaning to be too critical of
> the BoM since they are only guilty of implementing Federal
> Government policy with budget. Merely, that the BoM could benefit
> greatly by opening its doors initially in a selective manner, then
> leaving them as wide open as the US NWS when they are more
> comfortable. Such a policy can only improve media and public
> perception of their product when it is compared side-by-side with
> comparable product from orgs like "The Weather Company"...
>
There's actually an issue here which goes far beyond the Bureau -
that of the Government's attitude to its information. The US takes
the approach that information collected with taxpayers' money is
public property and should be freely available - US government
publications are not copyright, for example. It would be nice if
the Australian government took a similar view, but that's something
well outside the Bureau's power to determine.
Blair Trewin
(who is hoping that the proposed stockmarket float of the NZ
MetService is a spectacular flop so that no-one here gets any ideas)
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024
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Free radar!
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 08:19:46 GMT
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Yes, some form of free radar is likely from the Bureau in the near
future. Exact details of what will be available are being worked on
now. I phoned Bruce Buckley at the NSW BoM to get details for an
Australian Weather News story on planned enhancements to the Bureau's
website (forecast in the Federal Budget), and he indicated that
something definite should be known this week -- those of you going to
the AMOS meeting on Wednesday night may be the first to know.
As soon as I have anything definite, I'll post an item here and on
Australian Weather News.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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025
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Halos, Coronas, Iridescense, Rainbows, etc
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 17:58:21 +1000
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Just found a site that has the best and widest assortment of photos of the
above you could ever hope for.
http://members.tripod.com/~regenbogen/indexe.htm
Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com
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026
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: New tornado scale???
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 18:22:51 +1000
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Just love that texan drawl that the scale has, reminds me a chase video we
recently watched at Michael B's place. This Texan police officer in Pampa
talking about the tornado " when a saw tha tornada I put on my sireen "
>
> B-O: "lookit thet dust devil"
> B-1: "Gol-dang! lookit thet dust devil"
> B-2: "Maw! Come lookit this dust devil"
> B-3: "Son! lookit thet dust devil - Close the truck windows"
> B-4: "DAMN thet's a bigass dust devil"
> B-5: "Lookit thet dust devil - it done got ole Yella.
>
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027
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Swell is up and sea fog
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 18:43:05 +1000
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The swell on the Illawarra coast has been rising most of the day, presently
12-15ft from E/NE. Very light but persistent sea fog today, with a light NE
wind at seashore.
Large NE swells often cause upwelling and colder sea surface temperatures
just inshore. I have seen 17C in the middle of February with a cyclone
swell. I suspect a similar figure at present although I am unable to verify
my gut feeling as the latest Many Hydraulics sea temperature map has cloud
cover near our coast.
The Illawarra seemed to miss most of the rain ( again ) in the last few days
with less than 5mm at my home, we are actually well short on rainfall for
the year to date !
Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com
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028
X-Originating-Ip: [203.2.193.71]
From: "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Free radar!
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 01:50:19 PDT
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I definitely think this is a step in the right direction - can someone also
suggest that range height radar be provided free of charge too? That way
you can get a good idea of which storms are severe and their 3-D structure.
But I certainly think that it will at least mean fewer surprises such as
Sydney's April, 14 hailstorm.
- Paul G.
>From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Free radar!
>Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 08:19:46 GMT
>
>Yes, some form of free radar is likely from the Bureau in the near
>future. Exact details of what will be available are being worked on
>now. I phoned Bruce Buckley at the NSW BoM to get details for an
>Australian Weather News story on planned enhancements to the Bureau's
>website (forecast in the Federal Budget), and he indicated that
>something definite should be known this week -- those of you going to
>the AMOS meeting on Wednesday night may be the first to know.
>
>As soon as I have anything definite, I'll post an item here and on
>Australian Weather News.
>
>
>--
>Laurier Williams
>Australian Weather Links and News
>http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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029
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 19:37:17 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
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Subject: aus-wx: State of Origin Wx
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Hi all!
Well...it looks like we could be in for some thunderies
tomorrow....hmmm.....thunderies/State of Origin.....thunderies/State of
Origin........this is a toughy! As long as there's no thunderies on
Lang Park, that'll be ok :)
Some possible storms way out west tonight (near Gondonwindi) I'm
certainly hoping they'll happen...LI's will be marginally negaitve (-2
is the lowest) tomorrow, but the NE winds + beloved border ranges should
hopefully help...at 06z, AVN has a weakish line of
convergence/confluence to our SW, perhaps a little further SW then I'd
like it, but at least it's there!
Providing the models are right and from my judgement, I'm not expecting
anything major, scattered thunderies though should be a good
possibility.
Meanwhile...GO QUEENSLAND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Providing as NSW has 13 guys instead of 14, we should do some major at __
kicking :-)
Anthony 'QUEENSLANDER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!' Cornelius
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030
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: A Basic Problem for the Bureau
Date: Tue, 25 May 1999 09:48:16 GMT
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On Tue, 25 May 1999 17:48:58 +1000 (EST), Blair Trewin
wrote:
>There's actually an issue here which goes far beyond the Bureau -
>that of the Government's attitude to its information. The US takes
>the approach that information collected with taxpayers' money is
>public property and should be freely available - US government
>publications are not copyright, for example. It would be nice if
>the Australian government took a similar view, but that's something
>well outside the Bureau's power to determine.
>
Not quite. The executive of the Bureau is at this moment finalising
its Basic Products Set and Secondary Distribution policies. For those
not familiar with the ins and outs of the two Slatyer reports into the
Bureau's operations, Slatyer recommended that all Bureau products be
placed in three categories -- those freely available (via the web and
through media), those availlable on a cost-recovery basis, and those
value-added products available for commercial rates. The last of these
basically falls to the Bureau's Special Services Unit. It's the first
two that cause a problem.
The tool used to decide whether a Bureau "product" is freely available
or cost recovery is a document known as the Basic Product Set. All
products listed on this document are freely available and may be
freely used (though attribution to the Bureau is required). Everything
not on it is cost recovery. So, for example, hourly AWS observations
may be in the Basic Product Set, but obs more frequently than one hour
may not. Daily "telegraphic" rainfall reports may be in, but monthly
returns from postal rainfall stations may be out. 256km radar may be
in, but 1024km radar may be out. We will know then the document is
publicly available, possibly in a few days time.
Now there is a fundamental problem here. If the Bureau is to recover
costs for making certain data available, it must protect its
commercial and intellectual interest in that data, otherwise one user
could make one purchase of the data and make it freely available to
all, thus undercutting the Bureau's income base. As data is not, under
present copyright legislation, able to be copyrighted (although the
representation of it can be), the Bureau must rely on agreements with
those to whom it supplies data not to secondary distribute that data.
Break the agreement, and your access to data is terminated, and
substantial legal penalties could be awarded against you. The
unfortunate consequence is that a legal minefield will surround the
discussion, dissemination and use of non-Basic Product Set data.
The last draft Basic Product Set I saw was last July, when Don White
and I met Senator Macdonald, then Parliamentary Secretary with
responsiblity for the Bureau. It was such a general document that
drawing the fine distinctions that will be necessary to determine what
data is in and what is out would have been impossible. I understand
that a much more detailed document is now in the final stages of
preparation, along with a detailed secondary distribution policy.
Unfortunately, wherever the lines in the sand are drawn between Basic
and non-Basic, there will be problems; in particular problems of
equity. This is why the US model, in which there are no lines -- all
data is freely available (possibly at extraction cost), is in the
public domain, and may be discussed, exchanged and used freely -- is
the model we should press hard to adopt.
A free society is also a society in which you don't have to be wealthy
to afford the public information generated with public money, or
scared of the legal consequences of using it.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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| Document: 990525.htm
Updated: 11 June 1999 |
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