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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Wednesday, 2 June 1999 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Sydney to Hobart
002 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Gopher and Strato-Cu Blues
003 "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au] Sol's family
004 "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au] Mistake
005 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] European Severe Weather
006 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] I've got hail dents
007 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Sydney - Hobart Race report
008 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Illawarra
009 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Seven day cycle
010 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Gopher and Strato-Cu Blues
011 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Sydney to Hobart
012 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] Storm News
013 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Sydney to Hobart
014 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Storm News
015 Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au] Re: Photo colourisation?
016 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Max/Min thermometers
017 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] Storm News
018 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Sydney to Hobart
019 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Sydney to Hobart
020 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Sydney to Hobart
021 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Sydney to Hobart
022 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au] (no subject)
023 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Sydney to Hobart
024 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Sydney to Hobart
025 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Sydney to Hobart
026 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Sydney to Hobart
027 "L.J. & B. Smail" [gws at pipeline.com.au] Max/Min thermometers
028 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Rainfall
029 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Help
030 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Sydney to Hobart
031 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Sydney to Hobart
032 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Sol's family
033 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Sydney to Hobart
034 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Sol's family
035 "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] Sydney to Hobart...
036 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Re: Photo colourisation?
037 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Sydney to Hobart & ASWA
038 "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] Issues Relating to Weather Photography...
039 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Gopher and Strato-Cu Blues
040 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Issues Relating to Weather Photography...
041 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Gopher and Strato-Cu Blues
042 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Sol's family
043 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Interesting weather for NSW
044 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Sol's family
045 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Rainfall
046 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Sol's family
047 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Sydney to Hobart
048 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Illawarra
049 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Updates to my non-storm photos
050 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Sydney to Hobart...
051 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Interesting weather for NSW
052 "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] Early Photographs of Tornadoes in Australia
053 Paul Graham [m3052695 at hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au] Sydney to Hobart...
054 Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au] Photography competition
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 00:55:02 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components Pty Ltd
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Hi All,
Every TV channel (particularly 9) that I had the misfortune to listen to
this evening pretty well pointed the finger most unfairly at the BoM's
doorstep. Reports included the phrase "the BoM has cleared itself"
(referring to the preliminary Met report) followed by fragments of
interviews with spokespersons for the Cruising Yatch Club as well as
various sailors. Either the sailors got the blame for continuing or the
BoM was criticised for "failing" to predict the intensity of the storm...
Naturally in any case where there is loss of life, responsibilities are
carefully ducked to avoid legal (and possibly criminal) actions. Yet it
would seem to me that even if the individual yatchsmen did not fully
understand the implications of a "Storm Warning" or "Storm Force Winds"
(being between Gale Force and Hurricane Force), it surely is extremely
unlikely that the race organisers also did not understand. In my opinion,
given previous disasters and the known ferocity of Bass Strait in any
storm, the organisers had a clear duty of care to call the race off, one
hour after it had started, when they received the upgraded warning from the
Bureau.
I don't see how any of the recommendations put forward will avoid a repeat
of this tragedy unless the Cruising Yatch Club accepts this responsibility
and acts on it in future.
John W.
>snip
Hello Everyone
A report on commercial television last night, from the Cruising Yacht
Club(?) in a sailing magazine, blaming the crews of the yachts in the
Sydney to Hobart for the trouble they got into. It also stated that there
were inaccuracies in the met reports and they were critical of the way met
reports were issued.
Has anybody read the magazine article?
It looks to me in the preliminary Met report that the BOM released its
forecasts accurately and with plenty of warning time. I am sure there are
not too many of us who would go to sea heading into a area of gale and
storm warnings!
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002
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
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Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 01:37:12 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gopher and Strato-Cu Blues
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Dane
ok here are a list of web sites on the BoM page that have the "current AWS"
readings for each state, Im not sure how often they are updated but id say
every 30 minutes at least.
No offence to the Brisbane guys, but i couldnt find one for Queensland..
(ok a little offence, but not much :)
New South Wales:
http://www.bom.gov.au/olympic/products/IDN60013.shtml ,
South Australia: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDO30S02.shtml (not the
paragraph at the top of this page)
Victoria : http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDO30V01.shtml
Western Australia : http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDO30W01.shtml
Matthew Smith
ASWA Committee Member
----------Storm Chase Reports and Photos:---------
------http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm-----
>As Laurier Williams stated earlier the BOM Gopher site has closed after 5
years of operation. This is very depressing, where am I going to get my 2
and 3 day NMC GASP Forecast charts from now? Where am I going to get my
current Victorian observations (updated every ten minutes or so and
including stations right across Victoria and southern NSW) from? Oh well
that's progress I suppose. As for the first day of winter in Melbourne
what can you say, a little early drizzle cleared to a cool overcast
(Strato-Cu) day with a moderate west to northwest wind. 8/8 Strato-Cu all
day great for all you eager Sc chasers. Top temp in the city 15.4c and here
in Kilsyth the top was 13.6c, all in all a pretty typical early winters day
in Melbourne. And to think only 3 more months of this to go. The outlook
for the next few days looks pretty exciting a few late showers tomorrow(
Wednesday) and then mostly fine and cool right through into early next
week, top temps around 15 or 16 each day Bliss!!!. Dane.
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003
From: "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sol's family
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 02:25:02 +1000
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Hi all,
>> I think it's Uranus! (definitely no pun intended!) :)
>> 98 deg. axial tilt, I believe.
>And I think U-Ranus rotates vertically, doesn't it? So the weather would
>move from south to north?
That's what an axial tilt of 90� means!
Pluto's is 118�! Wouldn't want to live out there though, it's not the obliquity
that worries me, it'd be colder than Ballarat!
Marty.
Brisbane, Australia
martyp at dynamite.com.au
Images of Canberra: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
Lightning Photos: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
ICQ: 11790565
>
>Kevin Phyland wrote:
>>
>> Hey Michael!
>>
>> >5) Earth's axis of tilt is also not too extreme. Just think
>> >what it would be like if we rolled around our orbit like
>> >Neptune (?).
>>
>>
>> Kevin from Wycheproof.
>>
>> ______________________________________________________
>> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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004
From: "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mistake
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 01:31:01 +1000
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Hi Les,
Thanks for the info on the Paris storm, and the offer for a picture. Could you
email the pic to me?
Thanks!
Marty.
Brisbane, Australia
martyp at dynamite.com.au
Images of Canberra: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
Lightning Photos: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
ICQ: 11790565
-----Original Message-----
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
To: aus-wx [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Tuesday, 1 June 1999 7:30
Subject: aus-wx: Mistake
>Apologies for sending a jpeg of the Paris severe storm to the list....
>
>Anyone wanting it - email me.
>
>Looks like a pulse severe storm.
>
>Les
>
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005
Date: Tue, 01 Jun 1999 17:42:05 +0100
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: European Severe Weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Chris Gribben wrote:
> Hi Les and everyone else :),
>
> I I can recall quite a few decent storms in England, specifically Lincoln
yup that area can get qiute nasty in summertime. Generally MCS or multicell,
though. We've seen loadsa CG and rotation all across the Midlands but "prongs",
wall clouds, beavers tails etc seem to be quite rare...
> I can remember some spectacular storms -
> including one where the sky was an orange colour - due to the pollution on
> doubt - but it was truly spectacular.
They can be spectacular (see below) the ones that come up from France are
generally multicell - the jetstream is too far north in summertime to impart
rotation!! These babies can go countrywide at times as long as the southerlies
lie all the way up the UK but more likely than not they're easterly at my
latitude (55N) ----> no storms and what happens is that they then rumble their
way across the North Sea and into Holland.
This regime can produce ACCAS and altocumulonimbus (mid level Cb) with
spectactular CC and NO rain.
NB Southerlies ar a HOT and humid direction in the UK - the most spectacular
storms happen when an incursion of cold air comes south!!
Wintertime can cause some excitement - single cell storms in deep cold air
spawning T7 / F3 tornadoes!!
Supercells are rare beasties in Europe, but severe multicells and pulse single
cell storms arent, especially in summer!!
>
>
> I also saw some awesome storms in the Dordogne regoin of France ( have a few
> photos) and several spectacular night-time ones in southern Germany.
> although the air temps never got above 28-30C, the humidity would've been
> around 60% or so on both occasions. One of the southern Germany storms was a
> t night and was spectacular - lightning every 2 seconds or so.
Multicell or MCS again. The UK seems to be most favourably placed for severe
storms and (weak) tornadogenesis.
I saw two storms in the last week were spewing out lightning at greater than 40
flashes a minute, one at my locality (55N 1deg30W) and one in the central
Midlands. There were others last week.
>
>
> I'm surprised that we do not hear more from Europe in their summer months -
> conditions can be very favourable for severe storms, plenty of temperature
> contrasts in the area, some useful DP's occasionally as well as a couple of
> major mountain ranges
Supercells have been reported in the Alps, Holland and elsewhere. Most tornadic
activity is caused by updraught tightening, however. I've never seen a supercell
in the UK but have in Minnesota and hopefully New South Wales.
Weather in Europe and the Nato countries is something of an official secret and
non - US data is hard to come by!! We get our share of "mini-tornadoes" ,
line squalls, mesoscale convective systems, CGs and the like.
Les
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006
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 09:10:28 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: I've got hail dents
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Hi all,
I'd like to thank you Michael, I hadn't had a weather-related dream in
over 10 days and I was getting worried!!! (Normally I have 1-2 a week)
I had a lovely dream of 140km/h winds and 30cm hail last night (gotta
love dreams) you would have loved the hail Jimmy!!!
Meanwhile, I think I just proved my insanity!
It's mostly cloudy and cold here at the moment, 19/15.
Anthony from Brisbane
Michael Thompson wrote:
>
> Well not me, but my car. Washed it for the first time since April 14 on the
> weekend, and there are several on the bonnet. Only small but they are there.
> My wife had the car that evening at Shellharbour where golfball size hail
> fell.
>
> Michael Thompson
> http://thunder.simplenet.com
>
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007
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 09:14:30 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney - Hobart Race report
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Did anybody see the interesting report on "A current affair" last night?
One thing I noted with interest was the recommendation that BOM reports be in
"plain english". While that in itself is a misnomer because there is no "level"
of plain english, I agree that there needs to be a tightening of terminology.
One thing I didn't know was that when the BOM predicted events such as storm
warnings, a leeway of 40% was given.
Why not classify these Southern Ocean Lows ?
Such as :
Cat 1 Low: Winds 30 - 40 Knots, Swell between 4 - 5 metres, Pressure
990hpa
Cat 2 Low: Winds 40 - 50 Knots , Swell between 5 - 6 metres, Pressure
980hpa etc etc
And so on so on. Then they can use that bloody warning siren - that would
surely be plain enough for most people to understand. These Southern Ocean Lows
can be as dangerous as the Trop Ones, which the race found out.
Just my thoughts anyway.
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008
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Illawarra
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 10:06:16 +1000
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The Southern Highlands is an 'unofficial' part of the Illawarra. The Snowy
Mountains area is also often refered to as the highlands (esp. NSW ABC
Weather), which should be correct. The Bowral area is really the uplands,
the Tablelands are where they should be (although I believe a boundary
should run right down the top of the range seeing as obvoisly the weather
is so different on each side) and the snowy mountains area is the real
highlands.
Andrew.
----------
> From: Keith Barnett
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Illawarra
> Date: Tuesday, 1 June 1999 20:34
>
> Oh well, there's another gap filled in my education...maybe it's the
> press I keep hearing that refer to Bowral in the 'southern highlands'
> especially if they are talking about tulip festivals or snowfalls...
>
> Mark Hardy wrote:
> >
> > Keith
> >
> > You may be right about the "official" location of Bowral. However, the
> > Bowral forecast is included in the Illawarra section of the BoM
districts,
> > so this would reflect the emphasis in the forecasts.
> >
> > IDF05N04
> > ILLAWARRA
> > Tonight
> > Fine. Cool. Fresh southwest to southerly wind, strong at times near the
> > coast.
> >
> > Precis and temperatures for Tuesday
> > Wollongong : Fine, fresh winds
> > Nowra : Fine
> > Min:09 Max:17
> > Bowral : Fine
> > Min:04 Max:12
> >
> > It's not unheard of for Bowral to receive snow while Wollongong basks
in
> > (chilly) sunshine. So, bad boundaries are probably more to blams than
bad
> > forecasts.
> > Mark
> >
> > --
> > _____________________________________________________
> > Mark Hardy.
> > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> > Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
> > Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
> > Mobile 0414 642 739
> > email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
> > _____________________________________________________
> >
> > ----------
> > >From: Keith Barnett
> > >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nice satellite loop + Canberra rain
> > >Date: Mon, 31 May 1999 9:13 PM
> > >
> >
> > > I thought Bowral was 'officially' in the southern highlands.I know
it's
> > > not that far from there to the Illawarra but the climatic distinction
> > > would hardly justify including Bowral in the Illawarra forecasts.But
> > > then I think there has been discussion in this forum as to the whys
and
> > > wherefores of official climatic boundaries so I'm quite happy to be
> > > wrong on this one...
> > >
> > > "The Weather Co." wrote:
> > >>
> > >> Michael
> > >>
> > >> It's a difficult one for forecasters as the Illawarra District
extends up to
> > >> Bowral which often receives rain from the west. However, as we so
often see,
> > >> it rarely makes it down to the coast.
> > >> Mark
> > >> -----Original Message-----
> > >> From: Michael Thompson
> > >> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >> Date: Monday, 31 May 1999 18:08
> > >> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nice satellite loop + Canberra rain
> > >>
> > >> |All up we got nothing, some light drops which did not wet the
cement around
> > >> |8pm and that was all.
> > >> |
> > >> |I must admit that an Illawarra coast forecast of rain periods with
west
> > >> |winds always amuses me, this is not the first time I have seen such
and
> > >> they
> > >> |rarely eventuate.
> > >> |
> > >> |Michael
> >
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> > message.
> >
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009
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 10:21:54 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Seven day cycle
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Jane ONeill wrote:
>
> Unfortunately, weather isn't the only area of life where commercial
> decisions come into play. The minute money becomes a factor, the whole ball
> game changes....
[snip]
Just think of the cost of moving a low-lying city or protecting it from
rising sea levels. That's a real possibility within the remainder of
my lifetime and by no means an extreme estimation since it is based on
what rate the sea level is rising today.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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010
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gopher and Strato-Cu Blues
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 00:57:39 GMT
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On Tue, 1 Jun 1999 23:38:03 +1000, Dane Newman
wrote:
>As Laurier Williams stated earlier the BOM Gopher site has closed after 5 years of operation. This is very depressing, where am I going to get my 2 and 3 day NMC GASP Forecast charts from now? Where am I going to get my current Victorian observations (updated every ten minutes or so and including stations right across Victoria and southern NSW) from? Oh well that's progress I suppose. As for the first day of winter in Melbourne what can you say, a little early drizzle cleared to a cool overcast (Strato-Cu) day with a moderate west to northwest wind. 8/8 Strato-Cu all day great for all you eager Sc chasers. Top temp in the city 15.4c and here in Kilsyth the top was 13.6c, all in all a pretty typical early winters day in Melbourne. And to think only 3 more months of this to go. The outlook for the next few days looks pretty exciting a few late showers tomorrow( Wednesday) and then mostly fine and cool right through into early next week, top temps around 15 or 16
>each day Bliss!!!. Dane.
There's hope, Dane. In discussions I've had with various Bureau ppl,
it seems clear that they intend to broaden the scope of what's on
their Website, using some of the extra money they were voted in the
Budget specifically for that purpose. Some free radar, additional
forecast charts out several days, and better access to observations
are being suggested. We may know more after the 10 June meeting -- see
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/news/news_general9805.html for more
information.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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011
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 00:57:31 GMT
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On Tue, 01 Jun 1999 09:54:34 +1000, Chas & Helen Osborn
wrote:
>It looks to me in the preliminary Met report that the BOM released its
>forecasts accurately and with plenty of warning time.
One needs to remember that this report was written by the BoM,
therefore may not be entirely independent. If you read through Roger
Badham's analysis of both the weather situation and the forecasting
sequence in Appendix 14 to the Cruising Yacht Clubs mammoth report on
the race, you will get a different perspective. This analysis provided
the background on which the CYC based the following comments in the
press release issued with the report:
>--------Yachts that experienced problems or encountered difficulties, and even those that
> continued racing reported that "exceptional" waves were responsible for inflicting
> the damage or causing severe knockdowns. These waves were always a minimum
> of 20% and up to 100% bigger than the prevailing seas and always came from a
> direction other than the prevailing wave pattern.
>
>-------Although the precise location, timing and depth of the low pressure system were
> not accurately forecast, the key issue relating to the weather was the gap in
> knowledge between the BOM�s forecasts and the way they were understood by the
> sailors. The Bureau assumed that its forecast winds would be interpreted as being
> up to 40% more than stated and seas up to 86% bigger. The fleet reported
> expecting winds and seas to be "as forecast" or a bit stronger/bigger.
Complete copies of the Report of the 1998 Sydney Hobart Review
Committee are available in book form for a fee of $20.00 from the
Cruising Yacht Club of Australia, New Beach Board, Darling Point, NSW
2027, Telephone: (02) 9363 9731, fax (02) 9363 9745.
If you can't be bothered getting one, I'll be doing a summary of this
report (as I have already done of the Bureau's report) on Aus Wx News
in the next day or two.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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012
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 11:07:24 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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Subject: aus-wx: Storm News
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Michael,
Could you please send me March 1/2/3/4 sat pics thanks (just one or 2
afternoon ones are fine for each day)?
There'll be a couple more requests later..
If you could, that'd be great!
Anthony
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013
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 11:07:29 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
John Woodbridge wrote:
>
> Hi All,
>
> Every TV channel (particularly 9) that I had the misfortune to listen to
> this evening pretty well pointed the finger most unfairly at the BoM's
> doorstep...
[snip]
I'm most certainly on the BoM's side with this one. Their report is
excellent and true. One media statement that I picked up late last
night while watching channel 9 (I think) was the statement;
"...people did not understand the forecast (BoM forecast)...The
weather bureau (sic) should strive toward producing plain english
forecasts..."
Actual words might be slightly different but it made me almost
fall off my pew with thoughts of plain english forecasts in this
case.
Before I continue, I don't mean any disrespect toward those people
who lost their lives, property or family but many skippers needed
to be better educated in order to properly interpret the sailing
risks being predicted by the BoM forecasts issued before the race.
That is what needs to be fixed in the future, not necessarily the
nature of the "english" used in the forecasts.
Let's take just one example from the "english" forecast (IDS00N00)
updated at 1450 on 26/12/98;
"WARNINGS: Storm warning is current south from Merimbula. Gale
warning is current south from Broken Bay."
The Victorian RFC was even more specific at 1405 on 26/12/98 in
IDW00V02 when analysed at 1358;
"Priority Storm Warning for Victorian coastal waters east of
Wilsons Promontory"
"West/southwesterly wind change of 20/30 knots extending from
the west this afternoon then increasing to 35/45 knots tomorrow
morning and 45/55knots late Sunday afternoon. Seas rising to
2 to 3 metres this afternoon, 3 to 4 metres tomorrow morning
and 4 to 6 metres late afternoon"
This was accompanied by GASP prognostics that clearly forecast
a deepening low, wind and wave charts etc. But as we all know,
this needs to be treated with some caution.
If anything, there was perhaps too much information given and
too few skippers probably spoke to the BoM personnel on-site
before departure to clarify their understanding.
Now the "plain english" version could go something like this;
WARNINGS: Priority storm warning is current south from
Merimbula and for Victorian coastal waters east of Wilsons
Promontory. This means that the wind, waves and swell are
f........ big!
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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014
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 11:18:10 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>
> Hey Michael,
>
> Could you please send me March 1/2/3/4 sat pics thanks (just one or 2
> afternoon ones are fine for each day)?
>
> There'll be a couple more requests later..
I'll do it in one batch when you've got all requests. You also
need to specify which sector i.e. gmsc or gmsd and also the UTC
time applicable to the half hour if you can.
Cheers,
,-_|\ Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
/ \ Telstra Technology 7/255 Elizabeth St. Sydney NSW 2000
\_,^._* Strategy & Research snail: Locked Bag 6764 GPO Sydney 1100
v Sydney NSW Australia +61 2 9298 5891P +61 2 9298 5820F
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015
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 09:19:21 +0800
From: Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au]
Organization: Strike One Lightning Photos
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Photo colourisation?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
It is with concern that I read this email and thank John for putting up the idea
that it might be done.
As far as the ASWA Inc. photo competition goes. Any photo that wins and is not
of true colour will be discovered before the final print on the calendar
bringing shame on the whole competition but more specifically to the
photographer.
If any photo is found to be misleading in any way may eventually be found out.
Don't let the possibility exist where this is the case.
Second to the point of "what defines winter clouds". Again an honesty system.
ASWA trusts you to use your best judgement and any photo not found by the
committee to be in winter will be overlooked in the final selection by the
committee. The selection committee has enough knowledge collectively to
distinguish between summer and winter clouds and trying to buck the theme does
neither you or the Association any credence.
I will write a more detailed post explaining the ideas of where the competition
is heading and why it is so later on today.
Many thanks
--
Michael Fewings
Strike One Lightning Photos
http://strikeone.com.au
Michael Thompson wrote:
> I doubt that it was referring to any of the photos displayed. I assumed that
> it was a sensible general rule that was put ' before ' anybody tried this
> on.
>
> Michael
>
> > Hi all,
> >
> > There was a comment about people changing the colours of photos
> > that have been submitted and I was just wondering which photos
> > people were referring to. I've just checked out this months photos
> > (http://www.severeweather.asn.au/photo/) and I can't see anything
> > too strange. I trashed the email that mentioned this problem so
> > I can't reply directly - but I think photographers should be given
> > the benifit of the doubt, since there really can be some spectacular
> > lighting effects that only *seem* to have been colourised (and in
> > fact in many cases the offending pic may in fact be a poor imitation
> > of what actually was occuring in the sky)
> >
> > cheers,
> > Chris
> >
> > Chris Maunder (Canberra)
> >
> > http://www.geocities.com/SiliconValley/Haven/2473/
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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016
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Max/Min thermometers
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 11:39:40 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
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Hi Kevin.
Yes, I had assumed the 'official' max/min thermometers would be
ludicrously expensive and moreover, I have no idea where to get them.
However, I do believe that it is possible to buy reasonably accurate
digital electronic thermometers (+-0.2C) from places like Australian
Geographic/Disk Smith Electronics at reasonable price (<$100). Please
correct me if I am wrong.
Normally one keeps the electronics inside, and uses an outdoor probe. The
question is how would one rig this up to give acceptable readings. Does
one still use a Stevenson Screen?? Hence my question as to whether the
BoM has a view on this. Blair, do you have any comments?
I can't help thinking that a worthwhile pursuit would be to research a
basic electronics package and transducer set to measure temp, humidity,
pressure, wind speed & direction to an acceptable degree of accuracy, which
may be easily interfaced to a PC for the purpose of automatically recording
data. It should then be easy to translate this graphically using things
like Excel. I have seen advertisements for products in the U.S. at prices
starting around $US500, which is over most peoples budget.
Input anyone?
John.
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017
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 11:52:57 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Michael,
Sorry...this was accidently sent to the list...it was meant to go to MB,
but I blundered (as usual!)
Thanks though!
Anthony
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
> Anthony Cornelius wrote:
> >
> > Hey Michael,
> >
> > Could you please send me March 1/2/3/4 sat pics thanks (just one or 2
> > afternoon ones are fine for each day)?
> >
> > There'll be a couple more requests later..
>
> I'll do it in one batch when you've got all requests. You also
> need to specify which sector i.e. gmsc or gmsd and also the UTC
> time applicable to the half hour if you can.
>
> Cheers,
>
> ,-_|\ Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
> / \ Telstra Technology 7/255 Elizabeth St. Sydney NSW 2000
> \_,^._* Strategy & Research snail: Locked Bag 6764 GPO Sydney 1100
> v Sydney NSW Australia +61 2 9298 5891P +61 2 9298 5820F
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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018
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 11:55:32 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Laurier Williams wrote Wed, 02 Jun 1999 00:57:31 GMT:
>
> On Tue, 01 Jun 1999 09:54:34 +1000, Chas & Helen Osborn
> wrote:
>
> >It looks to me in the preliminary Met report that the BOM released its
> >forecasts accurately and with plenty of warning time.
>
> One needs to remember that this report was written by the BoM,
> therefore may not be entirely independent. If you read through Roger
> Badham's analysis of both the weather situation and the forecasting
> sequence in Appendix 14 to the Cruising Yacht Clubs mammoth report on
> the race, you will get a different perspective...
Thanks Laurier for pointing this out. But we must remember that
regardless of a report's size, the author's(s) perspective needs
to be understood and an allowance made for potential bias. This is
particularly so when there is tragedy and possible blame to
apportion.
>
> On Wed, 02 Jun 1999 11:07:29 +1000 Michael Scollay wrote:
>
> > I'm most certainly on the BoM's side with this one. Their report is
> > excellent and true...
I am saying that their report was easily understood from my
perspective and there is no false information in the BoM report
that I can find. That is not to say that there may be a selective
information publishing process going on. I cannot judge that from
the hundred or so pages that I've printed and studied while going
home on the train at night.
The CYC could be more open and release their report for free.
There is really nothing to hide and no blame to apportion.
> > ... One media statement that I picked up late last night
> > while watching channel 9 (I think) was the statement;
> >
> > "...people did not understand the forecast (BoM forecast)...The
> > weather bureau (sic) should strive toward producing plain english
> > forecasts..."
>
> On Wed, 2 Jun 1999 09:14:30 +1000 Paul Mossman wrote:
>
> > Did anybody see the interesting report on "A current affair" last
> > night?
> >
> > One thing I noted with interest was the recommendation that BOM
> > reports be in "plain english". While that in itself is a misnomer
> > because there is no "level" of plain english, I agree that there
> > needs to be a tightening of terminology.
> >
> > One thing I didn't know was that when the BOM predicted events
> > such as storm warnings, a leeway of 40% was given.
It is clear that interpretation of both the forecasts and the risks
involved is vital. That is an education process in the main that the
BoM and the CYC can work together to improve. In particular, a lot
can be improved from analysing forecasts and comparing that to later
observations. An example might be the BoM forecast of "5 to 7m seas"
meaning that the average might be within these limits but extremes
could be at least 50% bigger. Anything over 10m deserves a lot of
respect, even for much larger vessels. I don't think this was made
clear to many skippers. This remains a fundamental research, education
and communication issue to resolve.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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019
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 12:01:25 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet Mail 4.70.1155
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I remember boxing day well because there were severe storm warnings current
for the southern tablelands. The accurate warnings were there with plenty
of time to spare.
----------
> From: Michael Scollay
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
> Date: Wednesday, 2 June 1999 11:55
>
> Laurier Williams wrote Wed, 02 Jun 1999 00:57:31 GMT:
> >
> > On Tue, 01 Jun 1999 09:54:34 +1000, Chas & Helen Osborn
> > wrote:
> >
> > >It looks to me in the preliminary Met report that the BOM released
its
> > >forecasts accurately and with plenty of warning time.
> >
> > One needs to remember that this report was written by the BoM,
> > therefore may not be entirely independent. If you read through Roger
> > Badham's analysis of both the weather situation and the forecasting
> > sequence in Appendix 14 to the Cruising Yacht Clubs mammoth report on
> > the race, you will get a different perspective...
>
> Thanks Laurier for pointing this out. But we must remember that
> regardless of a report's size, the author's(s) perspective needs
> to be understood and an allowance made for potential bias. This is
> particularly so when there is tragedy and possible blame to
> apportion.
>
> >
> > On Wed, 02 Jun 1999 11:07:29 +1000 Michael Scollay wrote:
> >
> > > I'm most certainly on the BoM's side with this one. Their report is
> > > excellent and true...
>
> I am saying that their report was easily understood from my
> perspective and there is no false information in the BoM report
> that I can find. That is not to say that there may be a selective
> information publishing process going on. I cannot judge that from
> the hundred or so pages that I've printed and studied while going
> home on the train at night.
>
> The CYC could be more open and release their report for free.
>
> There is really nothing to hide and no blame to apportion.
>
> > > ... One media statement that I picked up late last night
> > > while watching channel 9 (I think) was the statement;
> > >
> > > "...people did not understand the forecast (BoM forecast)...The
> > > weather bureau (sic) should strive toward producing plain english
> > > forecasts..."
> >
> > On Wed, 2 Jun 1999 09:14:30 +1000 Paul Mossman wrote:
> >
> > > Did anybody see the interesting report on "A current affair" last
> > > night?
> > >
> > > One thing I noted with interest was the recommendation that BOM
> > > reports be in "plain english". While that in itself is a misnomer
> > > because there is no "level" of plain english, I agree that there
> > > needs to be a tightening of terminology.
> > >
> > > One thing I didn't know was that when the BOM predicted events
> > > such as storm warnings, a leeway of 40% was given.
>
> It is clear that interpretation of both the forecasts and the risks
> involved is vital. That is an education process in the main that the
> BoM and the CYC can work together to improve. In particular, a lot
> can be improved from analysing forecasts and comparing that to later
> observations. An example might be the BoM forecast of "5 to 7m seas"
> meaning that the average might be within these limits but extremes
> could be at least 50% bigger. Anything over 10m deserves a lot of
> respect, even for much larger vessels. I don't think this was made
> clear to many skippers. This remains a fundamental research, education
> and communication issue to resolve.
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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020
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 02:01:08 GMT
X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452
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On Wed, 02 Jun 1999 11:07:29 +1000, Michael Scollay
wrote:
>I'm most certainly on the BoM's side with this one. Their report is
>excellent and true.
It is the truth and nothing but the truth, but I think may fail on the
test of "the whole truth". Again, I'd strongly recommend everyone read
Roger Badham's appraisal in Appendix 14 of the CYC report. There is
substantial evidence that the forecasts underestimated both wind and
sea strength, even allowing for the Bureau's argument that only
averages are given in warnings, and that seamen should know about gust
and significant wave height envelopes. There were also multiple and
conflicting forecasts in place at the one time, and a forecasting
regime not ideally suited to producing the best product for the race.
The Bureau's report is a good piece of technical writing, but leaves
some important issues unsaid.
>One media statement that I picked up late last
>night while watching channel 9 (I think) was the statement;
>
>"...people did not understand the forecast (BoM forecast)...The
>weather bureau (sic) should strive toward producing plain english
>forecasts..."
>
>Actual words might be slightly different but it made me almost
>fall off my pew with thoughts of plain english forecasts in this
>case.
>
This is an area which concerns me, not only in the specific area of
understanding storm warnings, but in the public's ability to
understand all Bureau forecast and warning output. I'm interested in
semantics as well as meteorology. The term "plain english" is used (by
the plain english movement, at any rate) to mean a 100% communication
of thought and information between the sender and receiver of words.
The responsibility in ensuring that the message gets through correctly
lies with the sender, not the receiver, because the sender is in
control of the words.
Can anyone recall the last time the Bureau did a survey to verify the
level of understanding of its forecasts and warnings? The meanings of
words like "fine" and "isolated" and "chance of", and the distinction
between "rain periods" and "showers", are not as clear cut in
colloquial english as they are in scientific meteorology, but once the
forecast or warning leaves the Bureau's RFC, it's colloquial english
that'll be used to interpret it.
It's very interesting to compare the style of district or metropolitan
BoM forecasts with similar regional forecasts in the UK and US. In
both cases, the forecasters rely less on the technical meteorological
meaning of words, and more on creating a descriptive image of a
sequence of weather. This gives them much more flexibility in
describing dynamic situations.
For example, I was frustrated by the Bureau's early morning forecast
last Sunday for the NSW Central Tablelands, where I live. It said
"rain developing". When? Morning? Afternoon? Evening? A UK forecast
would have said "It'll be mild and cloudy at first, but the cloud
should thicken and the wind strengthen during the afternoon with some
light rain moving in from the west around early evening..."
That's plain english, and in the realm of public forecasting, I'm all
for it.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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021
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 12:14:44 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Excellent laurier! I agree 100% - thats what my email was about.
wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) on 02/06/99 12:01:08
Please respond to aussie-weather at world.std.com
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
cc: (bcc: Paul Mossman/LCO/NSW_AG)
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
On Wed, 02 Jun 1999 11:07:29 +1000, Michael Scollay
wrote:
>I'm most certainly on the BoM's side with this one. Their report is
>excellent and true.
It is the truth and nothing but the truth, but I think may fail on the
test of "the whole truth". Again, I'd strongly recommend everyone read
Roger Badham's appraisal in Appendix 14 of the CYC report. There is
substantial evidence that the forecasts underestimated both wind and
sea strength, even allowing for the Bureau's argument that only
averages are given in warnings, and that seamen should know about gust
and significant wave height envelopes. There were also multiple and
conflicting forecasts in place at the one time, and a forecasting
regime not ideally suited to producing the best product for the race.
The Bureau's report is a good piece of technical writing, but leaves
some important issues unsaid.
>One media statement that I picked up late last
>night while watching channel 9 (I think) was the statement;
>
>"...people did not understand the forecast (BoM forecast)...The
>weather bureau (sic) should strive toward producing plain english
>forecasts..."
>
>Actual words might be slightly different but it made me almost
>fall off my pew with thoughts of plain english forecasts in this
>case.
>
This is an area which concerns me, not only in the specific area of
understanding storm warnings, but in the public's ability to
understand all Bureau forecast and warning output. I'm interested in
semantics as well as meteorology. The term "plain english" is used (by
the plain english movement, at any rate) to mean a 100% communication
of thought and information between the sender and receiver of words.
The responsibility in ensuring that the message gets through correctly
lies with the sender, not the receiver, because the sender is in
control of the words.
Can anyone recall the last time the Bureau did a survey to verify the
level of understanding of its forecasts and warnings? The meanings of
words like "fine" and "isolated" and "chance of", and the distinction
between "rain periods" and "showers", are not as clear cut in
colloquial english as they are in scientific meteorology, but once the
forecast or warning leaves the Bureau's RFC, it's colloquial english
that'll be used to interpret it.
It's very interesting to compare the style of district or metropolitan
BoM forecasts with similar regional forecasts in the UK and US. In
both cases, the forecasters rely less on the technical meteorological
meaning of words, and more on creating a descriptive image of a
sequence of weather. This gives them much more flexibility in
describing dynamic situations.
For example, I was frustrated by the Bureau's early morning forecast
last Sunday for the NSW Central Tablelands, where I live. It said
"rain developing". When? Morning? Afternoon? Evening? A UK forecast
would have said "It'll be mild and cloudy at first, but the cloud
should thicken and the wind strengthen during the afternoon with some
light rain moving in from the west around early evening..."
That's plain english, and in the realm of public forecasting, I'm all
for it.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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022
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 12:17:51 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
While I agree with Laurier that the BoM self evaluation report cannot be
presented as independent it certainly appears to be meteorologically
thorough and should stand up to scrutiny.
I do have an issue with sailors stating they could not understand the
forecasts. The Bureau marine forecasts conform to internationally accepted
conventions for the reporting and forecasting of winds and waves. That is,
the Bureau forecasts "mean winds" and "sig waves" as does almost every other
met service around the world. Professional sailors should understand this.
Those that don't, are not suitably equipped to enter an ocean race.
It was pretty telling that not a single commercial boat reported being
caught out in this storm. The huge fishing fleets in Eden and Lakes
Entrance were safely in port.
The message seems obvious, experienced mariners who had the common sense to
read and think about the forecast stayed way clear of Bass Strait.
True, the Bureau has a duty to assist people to understand the forecast. But
we are not talking about a weekend fisherman taking his tinny onto Botany
Bay here. We are talking about people who claim to be expert sailors.
Clearly many were not.
Mark
--
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________
----------
>From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
>Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 10:57 AM
>
> On Tue, 01 Jun 1999 09:54:34 +1000, Chas & Helen Osborn
> wrote:
>
>
>>It looks to me in the preliminary Met report that the BOM released its
>>forecasts accurately and with plenty of warning time.
>
> One needs to remember that this report was written by the BoM,
> therefore may not be entirely independent. If you read through Roger
> Badham's analysis of both the weather situation and the forecasting
> sequence in Appendix 14 to the Cruising Yacht Clubs mammoth report on
> the race, you will get a different perspective. This analysis provided
> the background on which the CYC based the following comments in the
> press release issued with the report:
>
>>--------Yachts that experienced problems or encountered difficulties, and
> even those that
>> continued racing reported that "exceptional" waves were responsible
> for inflicting
>> the damage or causing severe knockdowns. These waves were always a
minimum
>> of 20% and up to 100% bigger than the prevailing seas and always
> came from a
>> direction other than the prevailing wave pattern.
>>
>>-------Although the precise location, timing and depth of the low pressure
> system were
>> not accurately forecast, the key issue relating to the weather was
> the gap in
>> knowledge between the BOM�s forecasts and the way they were
> understood by the
>> sailors. The Bureau assumed that its forecast winds would be
> interpreted as being
>> up to 40% more than stated and seas up to 86% bigger. The fleet
reported
>> expecting winds and seas to be "as forecast" or a bit stronger/bigger.
>
> Complete copies of the Report of the 1998 Sydney Hobart Review
> Committee are available in book form for a fee of $20.00 from the
> Cruising Yacht Club of Australia, New Beach Board, Darling Point, NSW
> 2027, Telephone: (02) 9363 9731, fax (02) 9363 9745.
>
> If you can't be bothered getting one, I'll be doing a summary of this
> report (as I have already done of the Bureau's report) on Aus Wx News
> in the next day or two.
>
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather Links and News
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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023
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 12:47:37 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Laurier Williams wrote on Wed, 02 Jun 1999 02:01:08 GMT:
>
> There were also multiple and conflicting forecasts in place
> at the one time, and a forecasting regime not ideally suited
> to producing the best product for the race. The Bureau's
> report is a good piece of technical writing, but leaves
> some important issues unsaid.
I'm glad you pointed this issue out. I read the "disparate"
(too strong a word) forecasts as reflecting both an evolution
in the understanding (by the BoM) of the developing situation
and, more importantly, a difference in the BoM's organisational
focus. The latter is a favourite beef of mine in regard to
how Telstra operates "disparately" at times north and south
of the Murray River. Weather respects no state boundary and
I am loathed to understand the sense in many of the boundaries
selected for regional forecasts. When it comes to particular
events like the Sydney-Hobart Race which require a specialist
BoM service, otherwise disparate parts of the BoM organisation
need to come together and form "one voice". That's a short
term risk management and exposure limitation strategy, not an
long term organisational strategy.
>
> >One media statement that I picked up late last
> >night while watching channel 9 (I think) was the statement;
> >
> >"...people did not understand the forecast (BoM forecast)...The
> >weather bureau (sic) should strive toward producing plain english
> >forecasts..."
> >
> >Actual words might be slightly different but it made me almost
> >fall off my pew with thoughts of plain english forecasts in this
> >case.
>
> This is an area which concerns me, not only in the specific area of
> understanding storm warnings, but in the public's ability to
> understand all Bureau forecast and warning output...
[snip]
I couldn't agree more with the intent of the plain english movement.
There is also a level of customisation required for specific audiences
and while a certain level of "plain english" is required for public
forecasts, a more specific level is needed to address the skipper of
a boat. My joke about plain english was along the lines of my
familiarity with certain members of the boating community who wouldn't
pay attention to any spoken word unless it was wrapped up with a
suitable dose of 4-letter words (emphasis added:-)
> On Wed, 02 Jun 1999 11:07:29 +1000 Michael Scollay wrote:
>
> > Now the "plain english" version could go something like this;
> >
> > WARNINGS: Priority storm warning is current south from
> > Merimbula and for Victorian coastal waters east of Wilsons
> > Promontory. This means that the wind, waves and swell are
> > f........ big!
You'll notice that this "joke" raised two points. The first combines
the Victorian and NSW components of forecasting to an agreed forecast.
That's the point I raised before about a "single voice" for the BoM
in events like the Sydney-Hobart Race. The second is my somewhat
careless choice of words and a 4-letter one aimed right at the
audience in question.
> Can anyone recall the last time the Bureau did a survey to verify the
> level of understanding of its forecasts and warnings?...
[snip]
Another important point to note. Get to know your customer! The BoM
rightly included such a survey in their information pack given to
skippers. I wonder whether anybody bothered to respond in any other
way besides the CYC mammoth report? I also wonder whether this was
a standard survey done in previous years and what the results were
if that was the case.
The BoM will find, as they have recognised to a degree in their
current org-structure, that many types of customers exist ranging
from the ASWA's of the world, other educated communities like the
aviation and sailing communities, the public etc. One product will
not necessarily fit all customer needs.
> It's very interesting to compare the style of district or
> metropolitan BoM forecasts with similar regional forecasts in
> the UK and US...
[snip]
Not the mention "severe weather forecasts". The area of what
is applicable to the Australian situation is a more difficult
question to answer because there are cultural differences,
perception of the BoM or equivalent etc. differences and so
forth. It may not be possible to transcribe an overseas success
story to an Australian situation and ensure success. I know that
areas of customisation are required.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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024
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 12:57:17 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet E-mail/MAPI - 8.0.0.4211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Mark,
I am acquainted with the wife of one the fellas who lost their life in this
race. I can say that in fact he had 30 years Ocean Racing experience and
naturally, she is rather devastated at the suggestion that he was not
suitably experienced or equipped for this event.
Despite the race rules, until organisers take some responsibility,
disasters such as those which have befallen this race and the Fastnet races
will continue to occur. If the Whynum-Manly Yatch club can abandon and
cancel races on Moreton Bay when a severe t'storm warning is issued, surely
the CYC can do so for more major events.
John.
-----Original Message-----
From: Mark Hardy [SMTP:mhardy at magna.com.au]
Sent: Wednesday, 2 June 1999 12:18
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
While I agree with Laurier that the BoM self evaluation report cannot be
presented as independent it certainly appears to be meteorologically
thorough and should stand up to scrutiny.
I do have an issue with sailors stating they could not understand the
forecasts. The Bureau marine forecasts conform to internationally accepted
conventions for the reporting and forecasting of winds and waves. That is,
the Bureau forecasts "mean winds" and "sig waves" as does almost every
other
met service around the world. Professional sailors should understand this.
Those that don't, are not suitably equipped to enter an ocean race.
It was pretty telling that not a single commercial boat reported being
caught out in this storm. The huge fishing fleets in Eden and Lakes
Entrance were safely in port.
The message seems obvious, experienced mariners who had the common sense to
read and think about the forecast stayed way clear of Bass Strait.
True, the Bureau has a duty to assist people to understand the forecast.
But
we are not talking about a weekend fisherman taking his tinny onto Botany
Bay here. We are talking about people who claim to be expert sailors.
Clearly many were not.
Mark
--
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________
----------
>From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
>Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 10:57 AM
>
> On Tue, 01 Jun 1999 09:54:34 +1000, Chas & Helen Osborn
> wrote:
>
>
>>It looks to me in the preliminary Met report that the BOM released its
>>forecasts accurately and with plenty of warning time.
>
> One needs to remember that this report was written by the BoM,
> therefore may not be entirely independent. If you read through Roger
> Badham's analysis of both the weather situation and the forecasting
> sequence in Appendix 14 to the Cruising Yacht Clubs mammoth report on
> the race, you will get a different perspective. This analysis provided
> the background on which the CYC based the following comments in the
> press release issued with the report:
>
>>--------Yachts that experienced problems or encountered difficulties, and
> even those that
>> continued racing reported that "exceptional" waves were
responsible
> for inflicting
>> the damage or causing severe knockdowns. These waves were always a
minimum
>> of 20% and up to 100% bigger than the prevailing seas and always
> came from a
>> direction other than the prevailing wave pattern.
>>
>>-------Although the precise location, timing and depth of the low
pressure
> system were
>> not accurately forecast, the key issue relating to the weather was
> the gap in
>> knowledge between the BOM's forecasts and the way they were
> understood by the
>> sailors. The Bureau assumed that its forecast winds would be
> interpreted as being
>> up to 40% more than stated and seas up to 86% bigger. The fleet
reported
>> expecting winds and seas to be "as forecast" or a bit
stronger/bigger.
>
> Complete copies of the Report of the 1998 Sydney Hobart Review
> Committee are available in book form for a fee of $20.00 from the
> Cruising Yacht Club of Australia, New Beach Board, Darling Point, NSW
> 2027, Telephone: (02) 9363 9731, fax (02) 9363 9745.
>
> If you can't be bothered getting one, I'll be doing a summary of this
> report (as I have already done of the Bureau's report) on Aus Wx News
> in the next day or two.
>
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather Links and News
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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025
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 14:05:26 +1000
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
One of the things I really love about this List is that you think you have an
opinion on something (fairly cut & dry) and then someone posts something that
really challenges that opinion and then you have to change your view! :-)
I suppose it all comes down to this: What is the risk involved when you do a
sport / etc etc? Surely all concerned were aware that nature / The Ocean is
extremely unpredictable and ferocious at times. All sailors taking part were
aware of that and that risk - they literally take their own lives in their hands
when they do sail. Sure its the Captains ultimate responsibility to decide when
& whether the conditions are too rough - and I suppose the best way would be
armed with the most detailed of information and the support of the crew. If
either don't exist then call it quits - risk embarrassment sure but rather that
then loss of life which should always be the ultimate goal of any person - to
protect life.
Regards, Paul.
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026
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 05:50:11 GMT
X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
On Wed, 02 Jun 1999 12:47:37 +1000, Michael Scollay
wrote:
>Laurier Williams wrote on Wed, 02 Jun 1999 02:01:08 GMT:
>>
>> There were also multiple and conflicting forecasts in place
>> at the one time, and a forecasting regime not ideally suited
>> to producing the best product for the race. The Bureau's
>> report is a good piece of technical writing, but leaves
>> some important issues unsaid.
>
>I'm glad you pointed this issue out. I read the "disparate"
>(too strong a word) forecasts as reflecting both an evolution
>in the understanding (by the BoM) of the developing situation
>and, more importantly, a difference in the BoM's organisational
>focus.
Three forecasts were issued for eastern Bass Strait within 31 minutes
of one another soon after midday on the 27th as the system was winding
up to full strength. They were (abbreviated to cover the area of the
storm):
Sydney RFC, special race forecast at 12.09 for winds W/SW 25/35 knots
with stronger gusts increasing to 40/50 today, decreasing to 25/35
during Monday. Waves 2 to 3m rising to 4 to 5, swell rising to 3m
Hobart RFC , special race forecast at 12.40 for winds W/SW 30/40,
locally 40/50 near Vic coast, easing to be 25/35 by early Monday
morning. Waves 5 to 6m slowly abating. Swell 3m
Melbourne RFC, Bass Strait forecast (Eastern section) at 12.10 for
W/SW 45/55 easing to 30/40 overnight and 20/30 tomorrow. Seas/swell 5
to 7 abating to 3 to 5 overnight and 2 to 4 tomorrow.
The Bureau report indicates strongest mean winds in the storm were
around 55 knots, and sig wave heights of 8m. It bases this primarily
on the observations from the Navy vessel Young Endeavour.
The CYC report indicates strongest mean winds in the storm of around
60 to 65 knots with sig wave heights around 10m. This is based on
instrumental reports, but also an analysis of the structure of the
evolving mesoscale low.
The Melbourne RFC routine forecast was close, but the two race
forecasts less accurate in different ways.
>When it comes to particular
>events like the Sydney-Hobart Race which require a specialist
>BoM service, otherwise disparate parts of the BoM organisation
>need to come together and form "one voice".
Agreed, especially when you consider the BoM has no marine weather
section. I think the CYC recommendations include something along these
lines.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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027
X-Sender: gws at mail.pipeline.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 16:01:26 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com,
"'aussie-weather at world.std.com'"
From: "L.J. & B. Smail" [gws at pipeline.com.au]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Max/Min thermometers
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
John,
I don't know if you are in Vic, but Solar Flair (or Flare) in Emerald (03
5968 4863)stock all the Davis instruments. I have found them to be
extremely accurate and reliable.
Regards,
Lindsay Smail
At 11:39 AM 02-06-99 +1000, John Woodbridge wrote:
>Hi Kevin.
>
>Yes, I had assumed the 'official' max/min thermometers would be
>ludicrously expensive and moreover, I have no idea where to get them.
> However, I do believe that it is possible to buy reasonably accurate
>digital electronic thermometers (+-0.2C) from places like Australian
>Geographic/Disk Smith Electronics at reasonable price (<$100). Please
>correct me if I am wrong.
>
>Normally one keeps the electronics inside, and uses an outdoor probe. The
>question is how would one rig this up to give acceptable readings. Does
>one still use a Stevenson Screen?? Hence my question as to whether the
>BoM has a view on this. Blair, do you have any comments?
>
>I can't help thinking that a worthwhile pursuit would be to research a
>basic electronics package and transducer set to measure temp, humidity,
>pressure, wind speed & direction to an acceptable degree of accuracy, which
>may be easily interfaced to a PC for the purpose of automatically recording
>data. It should then be easy to translate this graphically using things
>like Excel. I have seen advertisements for products in the U.S. at prices
>starting around $US500, which is over most peoples budget.
>
>Input anyone?
>
>John.
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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028
Date: Tue, 01 Jun 1999 11:38:31 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rainfall
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I've recorded 13mm for May at my station in Blackheath.
Lindsay Pearce
Michael Thompson wrote:
>
> That 37mm is a lot more than I have had this May, in fact we are well below
> average, even back in Feb - Mar the rain was stopping at Sydney or the
> Hunter.
>
> I am now watering the grass every second day, admit I have a rather poor
> front lawn competing with several palms and mature gum trees.
>
> Large area of rain just west of the Illawarra tonight, the animated loop
> seem to indicate it dies just west of the escarpment. Sort of a rain shadow
> affect.
>
> Michael
>
>
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029
Date: Tue, 01 Jun 1999 11:46:34 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Thanks to all those that offered help re my computer/monitor problems.
I've finally got it all fixed, i think. Dry joints on my CRT Board and a
replaced dropper resistor. Does that sound good to those in the know? we
get so much condensation here and the computer repairer suggested this
could contribute to my problems.
Lindsay Pearce.
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
> Lindsay,
>
> Nasty, nasty windoze and software:-) That software stole the
> Windows3.1 colour map and didn't give it back nicely or it's
> setup a different video driver which is the worst possible
> behavior. It may also have clobbered some key setup files like
> MichaelT mentioned. Hopefully just renaming the originals. Use
>
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030
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 06:25:03 GMT
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On Wed, 02 Jun 1999 12:17:51 +1000, "Mark Hardy"
wrote:
>While I agree with Laurier that the BoM self evaluation report cannot be
>presented as independent it certainly appears to be meteorologically
>thorough and should stand up to scrutiny.
>
Mark, I have no problems with the meteorology of the report, though I
think the CYC Appendix 14 goes a step further. I do feel, though, that
the analysis of forecasts/warnings issued and the organisation of the
forecasting effort is more accurately portrayed by the CYC Appendix
than the Bureau's report.
>I do have an issue with sailors stating they could not understand the
>forecasts. The Bureau marine forecasts conform to internationally accepted
>conventions for the reporting and forecasting of winds and waves. That is,
>the Bureau forecasts "mean winds" and "sig waves" as does almost every other
>met service around the world. Professional sailors should understand this.
>Those that don't, are not suitably equipped to enter an ocean race.
>
But they weren't and they did. Similar problems occurred in Fastnet,
and previously in Sydney-Hobarts. I agree wholeheartedly that *all*
who place themselves at risk in weather situations (not just
competitive sailors) should be educated to use the tools available.
This should include surfers and bushwalkers, for example, who also
perish due to improper assessment of weather hazards. Unfortunately,
history doesn't indicate that this is likely.
Along with education there must be a reassessment of the effectiveness
of forecasting and warning instruments, and improvements that could be
made to them. The fact that they may conform to internationally
accepted conventions has little substance if misunderstandings
continue to occur.
>It was pretty telling that not a single commercial boat reported being
>caught out in this storm. The huge fishing fleets in Eden and Lakes
>Entrance were safely in port.
>
>The message seems obvious, experienced mariners who had the common sense to
>read and think about the forecast stayed way clear of Bass Strait.
I think the fact that it was the middle of Christmas long weekend may
have helped keep them in port, too. In addition, fishermen I've spoken
to along the Bass Strait coastline have an acute local weather sense
cultivated through long experience.
I guess another factor in all this, not often mentioned, is that the
competitive nature of a race will heighten the levels of risk that
individuals will consider undertaking. Someone who goes to sea for a
living for 250 days a year will have a lower threshold of risk than
someone competing in one of the world's highest-level sporting events.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 16:43:39 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Jimmy here.
Yes David Croan, Matt Smith and myself also remember Boxing Day. 850km
later, we were a disappointed lot wondering if we would ever get to chase a
storm again. In particular I recall the quiet in the car,... even a pin
could be heard dropping. I suppose that defines a bust.
We really didn't want that east coast low as it was the reason for our
disappointment.
Jimmy Deguara
At 12:01 2/06/99 +1000, you wrote:
>I remember boxing day well because there were severe storm warnings current
>for the southern tablelands. The accurate warnings were there with plenty
>of time to spare.
>
>----------
>> From: Michael Scollay
>> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
>> Date: Wednesday, 2 June 1999 11:55
>>
>> Laurier Williams wrote Wed, 02 Jun 1999 00:57:31 GMT:
>> >
>> > On Tue, 01 Jun 1999 09:54:34 +1000, Chas & Helen Osborn
>> > wrote:
>> >
>> > >It looks to me in the preliminary Met report that the BOM released
>its
>> > >forecasts accurately and with plenty of warning time.
>> >
>> > One needs to remember that this report was written by the BoM,
>> > therefore may not be entirely independent. If you read through Roger
>> > Badham's analysis of both the weather situation and the forecasting
>> > sequence in Appendix 14 to the Cruising Yacht Clubs mammoth report on
>> > the race, you will get a different perspective...
>>
>> Thanks Laurier for pointing this out. But we must remember that
>> regardless of a report's size, the author's(s) perspective needs
>> to be understood and an allowance made for potential bias. This is
>> particularly so when there is tragedy and possible blame to
>> apportion.
>>
>> >
>> > On Wed, 02 Jun 1999 11:07:29 +1000 Michael Scollay wrote:
>> >
>> > > I'm most certainly on the BoM's side with this one. Their report is
>> > > excellent and true...
>>
>> I am saying that their report was easily understood from my
>> perspective and there is no false information in the BoM report
>> that I can find. That is not to say that there may be a selective
>> information publishing process going on. I cannot judge that from
>> the hundred or so pages that I've printed and studied while going
>> home on the train at night.
>>
>> The CYC could be more open and release their report for free.
>>
>> There is really nothing to hide and no blame to apportion.
>>
>> > > ... One media statement that I picked up late last night
>> > > while watching channel 9 (I think) was the statement;
>> > >
>> > > "...people did not understand the forecast (BoM forecast)...The
>> > > weather bureau (sic) should strive toward producing plain english
>> > > forecasts..."
>> >
>> > On Wed, 2 Jun 1999 09:14:30 +1000 Paul Mossman wrote:
>> >
>> > > Did anybody see the interesting report on "A current affair" last
>> > > night?
>> > >
>> > > One thing I noted with interest was the recommendation that BOM
>> > > reports be in "plain english". While that in itself is a misnomer
>> > > because there is no "level" of plain english, I agree that there
>> > > needs to be a tightening of terminology.
>> > >
>> > > One thing I didn't know was that when the BOM predicted events
>> > > such as storm warnings, a leeway of 40% was given.
>>
>> It is clear that interpretation of both the forecasts and the risks
>> involved is vital. That is an education process in the main that the
>> BoM and the CYC can work together to improve. In particular, a lot
>> can be improved from analysing forecasts and comparing that to later
>> observations. An example might be the BoM forecast of "5 to 7m seas"
>> meaning that the average might be within these limits but extremes
>> could be at least 50% bigger. Anything over 10m deserves a lot of
>> respect, even for much larger vessels. I don't think this was made
>> clear to many skippers. This remains a fundamental research, education
>> and communication issue to resolve.
>>
>> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
Australian Severe Weather Association home information page
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
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032
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 17:02:58 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sol's family
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
But the stability of that "great red spot" "storm" on Jupiter over time
is simply amazing. There are a few theories as to why this is so but I
am not that familiar with them. However, there is exhibited considerable
heat outflow from whatever lies underneath Jupiter's dense clouds. My
point about Earth is what horrible extremes we would experience if our
axis were greater. I would be guessing but more violent storms, short
sharper winters and short and much hotter summers. Global circulation
patterns would be more chaotic, hence a nightmare to predict.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
Andrew Wall wrote:
>
> Also to make a point Venus rotates the oposite direction to all the other
> planets, both mercury and venus have a tilt of 2 degrees, earths tilt is
> 23.5 degrees, the moon has a tilt of 6.7 degrees, mars has a 25.2 degree
> tilt, and the most weather extreme planet Jupiter has only a 3.1 degree
> tilt from the ecliptic plane, Saturn has a 26.7 degree tilt and neptune has
> a 26.6 degree tilt
>
> >
> >>
> >>Kevin Phyland wrote:
> >>>
> >>> Hey Michael!
> >>>
> >>> >5) Earth's axis of tilt is also not too extreme. Just think
> >>> >what it would be like if we rolled around our orbit like
> >>> >Neptune (?).
[snip]
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033
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 06:37:49 GMT
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On Wed, 2 Jun 1999 12:57:17 +1000, John Woodbridge
wrote:
>Despite the race rules, until organisers take some responsibility,
>disasters such as those which have befallen this race and the Fastnet races
>will continue to occur. If the Whynum-Manly Yatch club can abandon and
>cancel races on Moreton Bay when a severe t'storm warning is issued, surely
>the CYC can do so for more major events.
>
Hi John
I can understand this reaction when something like this occurs, but I
think it has a couple of problems.
Firstly, if organisers do begin cancelling races on the basis of
expected severe weather, what is their legal liability the first time
they permit a race to proceed, and death or injury occur as a result
of events which it can later be argued should have led them to cancel
the race?
Secondly, it removes yet another decision from the individual to
"powers that be", who are also individuals, but with whom I may
strongly disagree. Can you imagine the odium in which a Sydney-Hobart
organiser would be held if a race, which has cost over a thousand
people millions of dollars and countless hours of time to prepare for,
were cancelled due to a false alarm warning?
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Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 16:10:40 +0900
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sol's family
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Actually pluto and charon rotate on axes that are tilted at 122.6 degrees
to the verticle, and it's the least upright planet in the solar system
At 02:25 6/2/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi all,
>
>>> I think it's Uranus! (definitely no pun intended!) :)
>>> 98 deg. axial tilt, I believe.
>
>>And I think U-Ranus rotates vertically, doesn't it? So the weather would
>>move from south to north?
>
>
>That's what an axial tilt of 90� means!
>
>Pluto's is 118�! Wouldn't want to live out there though, it's not the
obliquity
>that worries me, it'd be colder than Ballarat!
>
>Marty.
>Brisbane, Australia
>martyp at dynamite.com.au
>Images of Canberra: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
>Lightning Photos: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
>ICQ: 11790565
>
>>
>>Kevin Phyland wrote:
>>>
>>> Hey Michael!
>>>
>>> >5) Earth's axis of tilt is also not too extreme. Just think
>>> >what it would be like if we rolled around our orbit like
>>> >Neptune (?).
>>>
>>>
>>> Kevin from Wycheproof.
>>>
>>> ______________________________________________________
>>> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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035
X-Originating-Ip: [203.2.193.71]
From: "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart...
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 00:16:10 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Here's the e-mail I sent earlier but was never posted:
With regards to the Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race, I have to agree with
Mark. After all, what did sailors do before the days of weather
forecasting? A weather forecast should be seen as a bonus - additional
information - but not something you would risk your life on since there is
always some uncertainty. Sailors, as would aviators, should have a sound
understanding of meteorology and must always be prepared for the worst.
Having said that, I also have to agree with Laurier. That is, there
needs to be better understanding of just what the Bureau's weather forecasts
mean whether they are warnings or just plain outlooks. Take the daily
temperature maxima, for example. If the forecast reads "Expected maximum of
20 degrees" the reader is meant to understand, implicitly, what time of day
this maximum is likely to be reached. If weather conditions are stable,
this might be mid afternoon. If a wind change is expected, it could be some
other time. Perhaps the forecast should include average temperatures for
smaller time periods - morning and afternoon (daylight hours), say? With
regards to wind gusts, especially in the case of strong mean wind speeds, a
brief statistical rundown might be provided with the probability of
different wind strengths.
- Paul G.
______________________________________________________
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Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 16:32:04 +0900
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Photo colourisation?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
If the photograph scanned has come out darker (which in most cases does),
from the original, can some fine adjustment to contrast and or brightness
be done to make it more like the original picture??? If not I am guilty as
charged and forfeit my pictures from the competition as most of the picture
scanned have been made to look more like the original photograph.
At 09:19 6/2/99 +0800, you wrote:
>Hi all,
>
>It is with concern that I read this email and thank John for putting up
the idea
>that it might be done.
>
>As far as the ASWA Inc. photo competition goes. Any photo that wins and is
not
>of true colour will be discovered before the final print on the calendar
>bringing shame on the whole competition but more specifically to the
>photographer.
>
>If any photo is found to be misleading in any way may eventually be found
out.
>Don't let the possibility exist where this is the case.
>
>Second to the point of "what defines winter clouds". Again an honesty system.
>ASWA trusts you to use your best judgement and any photo not found by the
>committee to be in winter will be overlooked in the final selection by the
>committee. The selection committee has enough knowledge collectively to
>distinguish between summer and winter clouds and trying to buck the theme
does
>neither you or the Association any credence.
>
>I will write a more detailed post explaining the ideas of where the
competition
>is heading and why it is so later on today.
>
>Many thanks
>
>--
>Michael Fewings
>Strike One Lightning Photos
>http://strikeone.com.au
>
>
>
>Michael Thompson wrote:
>
>> I doubt that it was referring to any of the photos displayed. I assumed
that
>> it was a sensible general rule that was put ' before ' anybody tried this
>> on.
>>
>> Michael
>>
>> > Hi all,
>> >
>> > There was a comment about people changing the colours of photos
>> > that have been submitted and I was just wondering which photos
>> > people were referring to. I've just checked out this months photos
>> > (http://www.severeweather.asn.au/photo/) and I can't see anything
>> > too strange. I trashed the email that mentioned this problem so
>> > I can't reply directly - but I think photographers should be given
>> > the benifit of the doubt, since there really can be some spectacular
>> > lighting effects that only *seem* to have been colourised (and in
>> > fact in many cases the offending pic may in fact be a poor imitation
>> > of what actually was occuring in the sky)
>> >
>> > cheers,
>> > Chris
>> >
>> > Chris Maunder (Canberra)
>> >
>> > http://www.geocities.com/SiliconValley/Haven/2473/
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>> >
>>
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>
>
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037
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart & ASWA
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 17:42:04 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
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Hi Laurier,
Yes Ok, difficult question I guess. Do you put the risk of losing $ ahead
of losing life? It seems however that organisers of events are
increasingly found to have a 'duty of care', e.g., Applying speed limits to
car rallies, or counting heads on a dive trip. It has an interesting
parallel for ASWA as has been previously discussed on this column...
e.g., ASWA organises a November storm chase. Extreme conditions eventuate
which put members lives at risk. Even though we may have all provided
waivers of liability and understand the risks, does ASWA as the organiser
still have a 'duty of care' to advise members to abandon the chase and seek
shelter? What are the chances that anyone would follow this advice??
In both cases there is incentive to proceed. We are out there to witness
extreme weather - the yatchies are out there to win a race. But if the
advice is given and then ignored, blame clearly rests with those ignoring
the advice. I think the BoM basically did their job - it clearly wasn't
their duty of care to advise the yatchies to quit.
John W.
p.s. Paul, I don't expect anyone to change their opinion jus coz I aired
mine, I just like the debate! :)
>snip
On Wed, 2 Jun 1999 12:57:17 +1000, John Woodbridge
wrote:
>Despite the race rules, until organisers take some responsibility,
>disasters such as those which have befallen this race and the Fastnet
races
>will continue to occur. If the Whynum-Manly Yatch club can abandon and
>cancel races on Moreton Bay when a severe t'storm warning is issued,
surely
>the CYC can do so for more major events.
>
Hi John
I can understand this reaction when something like this occurs, but I
think it has a couple of problems.
Firstly, if organisers do begin cancelling races on the basis of
expected severe weather, what is their legal liability the first time
they permit a race to proceed, and death or injury occur as a result
of events which it can later be argued should have led them to cancel
the race?
Secondly, it removes yet another decision from the individual to
"powers that be", who are also individuals, but with whom I may
strongly disagree. Can you imagine the odium in which a Sydney-Hobart
organiser would be held if a race, which has cost over a thousand
people millions of dollars and countless hours of time to prepare for,
were cancelled due to a false alarm warning?
>snip
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038
X-Originating-Ip: [203.2.193.71]
From: "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Issues Relating to Weather Photography...
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 01:56:15 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Some people have been arguing that there should be certain guidelines for
weather photography - or at least for the type of photos displayed on the
ASWA site.
I would like to suggest that if there are to be guidelines then they should
not in anyway restrict methods the photographer may employ to achieve the
end result.
Why should one not be allowed to alter a print (by computer or otherwise) in
order to enhance some feature or create certain effects?
For one, I often use a polarising filter when taking cloud photos in order
to increase the contrast against a clear sky and to enhance cloud features.
So how can this be different to using a computer in order to adjust the
image's characteristics (eg colour, brightness and contrast)? Different
f-stops, shutter speeds, film types and lenses will create different effects
in any case. So why should there be rules governing the printed image when
there are no rules governing the photographer's camera settings, lenses or
film type?
What guidelines should there be? Perhaps that photos should be of a quality
that the weather features they portray are not contrived. For example, this
would mean that you couldn't alter a photo of a thunderstorm to show an F-5
tornado over Sydney, say.
- Paul G.
______________________________________________________
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039
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 19:30:24 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gopher and Strato-Cu Blues
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
So THAT'S why I can't get my daily surface and upper charts..
Do we all now have to pay for what is freely available in the media?
I've been downloading these charts freely every day for the last 3 years
and printing them out for future reference and now it seems the party's
over...
Can anyone tell me please where else on the WWW they might be available,
apart from the BoM's subscription service?
Dane Newman wrote:
>
> As Laurier Williams stated earlier the BOM Gopher site has closed after 5 years of operation. This is very depressing, where am I going to get my 2 and 3 day NMC GASP Forecast charts from now? Where am I going to get my current Victorian observations (updated every ten minutes or so and including stations right across Victoria and southern NSW) from? Oh well that's progress I suppose. As for the first day of winter in Melbourne what can you say, a little early drizzle cleared to a cool overcast (Strato-Cu) day with a moderate west to northwest wind. 8/8 Strato-Cu all day great for all you eager Sc chasers. Top temp in the city 15.4c and here in Kilsyth the top was 13.6c, all in all a pretty typical early winters day in Melbourne. And to think only 3 more months of this to go. The outlook for the next few days looks pretty exciting a few late showers tomorrow( Wednesday) and then mostly fine and cool right through into early next week, top temps around 15 !
or 16
> each day Bliss!!!. Dane.
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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040
X-Sender: astroman at chariot.net.au
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Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 18:54:45 +0900
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Issues Relating to Weather Photography...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
good points Paul
At 01:56 6/2/99 PDT, you wrote:
>Some people have been arguing that there should be certain guidelines for
>weather photography - or at least for the type of photos displayed on the
>ASWA site.
>I would like to suggest that if there are to be guidelines then they should
>not in anyway restrict methods the photographer may employ to achieve the
>end result.
>Why should one not be allowed to alter a print (by computer or otherwise) in
>order to enhance some feature or create certain effects?
>For one, I often use a polarising filter when taking cloud photos in order
>to increase the contrast against a clear sky and to enhance cloud features.
>So how can this be different to using a computer in order to adjust the
>image's characteristics (eg colour, brightness and contrast)? Different
>f-stops, shutter speeds, film types and lenses will create different effects
>in any case. So why should there be rules governing the printed image when
>there are no rules governing the photographer's camera settings, lenses or
>film type?
>What guidelines should there be? Perhaps that photos should be of a quality
>that the weather features they portray are not contrived. For example, this
>would mean that you couldn't alter a photo of a thunderstorm to show an F-5
>tornado over Sydney, say.
>- Paul G.
>
>
>
>______________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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041
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 20:12:51 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gopher and Strato-Cu Blues
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Tracked down the surface charts..but I can't find upper air synoptic
(GASP) maps (not the forecast ones) anywhere..
Keith Barnett wrote:
>
> So THAT'S why I can't get my daily surface and upper charts..
> Do we all now have to pay for what is freely available in the media?
> I've been downloading these charts freely every day for the last 3 years
> and printing them out for future reference and now it seems the party's
> over...
> Can anyone tell me please where else on the WWW they might be available,
> apart from the BoM's subscription service?
>
> Dane Newman wrote:
> >
> > As Laurier Williams stated earlier the BOM Gopher site has closed after 5 years of operation. This is very depressing, where am I going to get my 2 and 3 day NMC GASP Forecast charts from now? Where am I going to get my current Victorian observations (updated every ten minutes or so and including stations right across Victoria and southern NSW) from? Oh well that's progress I suppose. As for the first day of winter in Melbourne what can you say, a little early drizzle cleared to a cool overcast (Strato-Cu) day with a moderate west to northwest wind. 8/8 Strato-Cu all day great for all you eager Sc chasers. Top temp in the city 15.4c and here in Kilsyth the top was 13.6c, all in all a pretty typical early winters day in Melbourne. And to think only 3 more months of this to go. The outlook for the next few days looks pretty exciting a few late showers tomorrow( Wednesday) and then mostly fine and cool right through into early next week, top temps around 1!
5 !
> or 16
> > each day Bliss!!!. Dane.
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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042
X-Originating-Ip: [203.25.186.117]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sol's family
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 21:05:03 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Keith,
Yeah, if Jupiter had been about ten times bigger its own mass may well have
caused fusion to start at its core...
Velikovsky also said, (I think), that Venus was spat out of Jupiter at some
stage and that the Earth really did stop rotating for an hour and started up
again...
fanciful that...
Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
>From: Keith Barnett
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sol's family
>Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 19:47:34 +1000
>
>I have heard it said that the Great Red Spot was caused by the impact of
>a comet or one of Jupiter's moons. Apparently if Jupiter was hotter it
>would be a star and not a planet.Sufficient to say it's pretty unlivable
>with its 500 mph hurricanes and lightning bolts 30000 Km in length.
>However the so-called Jupiter Effect which was commonly debated in the
>mid 1970s, with particular reference to Emmanuel Velikovsky (he wrote
>Worlds in Collision and Ages in Chaos..fascinating but probably now
>rather fanciful), has apparently been debunked although I did at the
>time think it had some merit. The theory was that its gravitational
>effect, in conjunction with planetary line-ups,affected earth's weather
>and 1973/1974 was, from memory, the wettest summer in Central Australia
>for over 100 years (I was there in April of that year and never thought
>the desert could bloom like it did at the time.)
>
>Michael Scollay wrote:
> >
> > But the stability of that "great red spot" "storm" on Jupiter over time
> > is simply amazing. There are a few theories as to why this is so but I
> > am not that familiar with them. However, there is exhibited considerable
> > heat outflow from whatever lies underneath Jupiter's dense clouds. My
> > point about Earth is what horrible extremes we would experience if our
> > axis were greater. I would be guessing but more violent storms, short
> > sharper winters and short and much hotter summers. Global circulation
> > patterns would be more chaotic, hence a nightmare to predict.
> >
> > Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
> >
> > Andrew Wall wrote:
> > >
> > > Also to make a point Venus rotates the oposite direction to all the
>other
> > > planets, both mercury and venus have a tilt of 2 degrees, earths tilt
>is
> > > 23.5 degrees, the moon has a tilt of 6.7 degrees, mars has a 25.2
>degree
> > > tilt, and the most weather extreme planet Jupiter has only a 3.1
>degree
> > > tilt from the ecliptic plane, Saturn has a 26.7 degree tilt and
>neptune has
> > > a 26.6 degree tilt
> > >
> > > >
> > > >>
> > > >>Kevin Phyland wrote:
> > > >>>
> > > >>> Hey Michael!
> > > >>>
> > > >>> >5) Earth's axis of tilt is also not too extreme. Just think
> > > >>> >what it would be like if we rolled around our orbit like
> > > >>> >Neptune (?).
> > [snip]
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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043
X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
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Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 17:29:33 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Interesting weather for NSW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
G'Day Jimmy here
I am quite interested in the weather that may develop over the weekend in
NSW. A cold pool of air is forecast to pass over.
We will see what happens.
Jimmy Deguara
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
Australian Severe Weather Association home information page
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
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044
X-Sender: astroman at chariot.net.au
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Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 16:17:20 +0900
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sol's family
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Also to make a point Venus rotates the oposite direction to all the other
planets, both mercury and venus have a tilt of 2 degrees, earths tilt is
23.5 degrees, the moon has a tilt of 6.7 degrees, mars has a 25.2 degree
tilt, and the most weather extreme planet Jupiter has only a 3.1 degree
tilt from the ecliptic plane, Saturn has a 26.7 degree tilt and neptune has
a 26.6 degree tilt
>
>>
>>Kevin Phyland wrote:
>>>
>>> Hey Michael!
>>>
>>> >5) Earth's axis of tilt is also not too extreme. Just think
>>> >what it would be like if we rolled around our orbit like
>>> >Neptune (?).
>>>
>>>
>>> Kevin from Wycheproof.
>>>
>>> ______________________________________________________
>>> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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>>
>
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045
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 20:00:38 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rainfall
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Seems like it's dry everywhere, doesn't it?
Typically, if I get a wet month then 2 dry months, then the next month
is pretty wet but depending on which half of the year is involved, as
the following data from my observations show.
This is the pattern here since July 1998:
66.2,229.8,34.8,34.6,81.2,44.4 (December..never wet
anyway!),156.6,150.0,26.6,107.2 and 37.8 millimetres for May. 4 out of
11 months exceeded 100 mm. But now we're moving towards the drier half
of the year (Sydney's 'dry season') the probability of June being dry on
top of May looks pretty significant in which case July might be the
month to expect some sort of a break.
Sometimes this whole business is little more than crystalballology.
Lindsay wrote:
>
> I've recorded 13mm for May at my station in Blackheath.
>
> Lindsay Pearce
>
> Michael Thompson wrote:
> >
> > That 37mm is a lot more than I have had this May, in fact we are well below
> > average, even back in Feb - Mar the rain was stopping at Sydney or the
> > Hunter.
> >
> > I am now watering the grass every second day, admit I have a rather poor
> > front lawn competing with several palms and mature gum trees.
> >
> > Large area of rain just west of the Illawarra tonight, the animated loop
> > seem to indicate it dies just west of the escarpment. Sort of a rain shadow
> > affect.
> >
> > Michael
> >
> >
>
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046
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 19:47:34 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sol's family
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I have heard it said that the Great Red Spot was caused by the impact of
a comet or one of Jupiter's moons. Apparently if Jupiter was hotter it
would be a star and not a planet.Sufficient to say it's pretty unlivable
with its 500 mph hurricanes and lightning bolts 30000 Km in length.
However the so-called Jupiter Effect which was commonly debated in the
mid 1970s, with particular reference to Emmanuel Velikovsky (he wrote
Worlds in Collision and Ages in Chaos..fascinating but probably now
rather fanciful), has apparently been debunked although I did at the
time think it had some merit. The theory was that its gravitational
effect, in conjunction with planetary line-ups,affected earth's weather
and 1973/1974 was, from memory, the wettest summer in Central Australia
for over 100 years (I was there in April of that year and never thought
the desert could bloom like it did at the time.)
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
> But the stability of that "great red spot" "storm" on Jupiter over time
> is simply amazing. There are a few theories as to why this is so but I
> am not that familiar with them. However, there is exhibited considerable
> heat outflow from whatever lies underneath Jupiter's dense clouds. My
> point about Earth is what horrible extremes we would experience if our
> axis were greater. I would be guessing but more violent storms, short
> sharper winters and short and much hotter summers. Global circulation
> patterns would be more chaotic, hence a nightmare to predict.
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
>
> Andrew Wall wrote:
> >
> > Also to make a point Venus rotates the oposite direction to all the other
> > planets, both mercury and venus have a tilt of 2 degrees, earths tilt is
> > 23.5 degrees, the moon has a tilt of 6.7 degrees, mars has a 25.2 degree
> > tilt, and the most weather extreme planet Jupiter has only a 3.1 degree
> > tilt from the ecliptic plane, Saturn has a 26.7 degree tilt and neptune has
> > a 26.6 degree tilt
> >
> > >
> > >>
> > >>Kevin Phyland wrote:
> > >>>
> > >>> Hey Michael!
> > >>>
> > >>> >5) Earth's axis of tilt is also not too extreme. Just think
> > >>> >what it would be like if we rolled around our orbit like
> > >>> >Neptune (?).
> [snip]
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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047
X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
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Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 16:49:51 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
X-Mime-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by laurel.ocs.mq.edu.au id QAA09736
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I agree Marty.
Most of our sea rescues are for bloody stupid yaughts and so called sailors
who go out and challenge the sea and find it a little too tough. Even
recent heavy seas off the Mid North Coast yielded a rescue of another
yaught. If they are keen to go sailing, then I blieve that they should
understand more about the weather themselves. I don't believe that
everything should fall on someone else. If you went parachuting, you are
taught to check your own parachute. And this is what society in general
should be going if they decide to go yaughting, bushwalking and so on.
Jimmy Deguara
At 12:17 2/06/99 +1000, you wrote:
>While I agree with Laurier that the BoM self evaluation report cannot be
>presented as independent it certainly appears to be meteorologically
>thorough and should stand up to scrutiny.
>
>I do have an issue with sailors stating they could not understand the
>forecasts. The Bureau marine forecasts conform to internationally accepted
>conventions for the reporting and forecasting of winds and waves. That is,
>the Bureau forecasts "mean winds" and "sig waves" as does almost every other
>met service around the world. Professional sailors should understand this.
>Those that don't, are not suitably equipped to enter an ocean race.
>
>It was pretty telling that not a single commercial boat reported being
>caught out in this storm. The huge fishing fleets in Eden and Lakes
>Entrance were safely in port.
>
>The message seems obvious, experienced mariners who had the common sense to
>read and think about the forecast stayed way clear of Bass Strait.
>
>True, the Bureau has a duty to assist people to understand the forecast. But
>we are not talking about a weekend fisherman taking his tinny onto Botany
>Bay here. We are talking about people who claim to be expert sailors.
>Clearly many were not.
>
>Mark
>
>--
>_____________________________________________________
>Mark Hardy.
>The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
>Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
>Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
>Mobile 0414 642 739
>email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
>_____________________________________________________
>
>
>----------
>>From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
>>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart
>>Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 10:57 AM
>>
>
>> On Tue, 01 Jun 1999 09:54:34 +1000, Chas & Helen Osborn
>> wrote:
>>
>>
>>>It looks to me in the preliminary Met report that the BOM released its
>>>forecasts accurately and with plenty of warning time.
>>
>> One needs to remember that this report was written by the BoM,
>> therefore may not be entirely independent. If you read through Roger
>> Badham's analysis of both the weather situation and the forecasting
>> sequence in Appendix 14 to the Cruising Yacht Clubs mammoth report on
>> the race, you will get a different perspective. This analysis provided
>> the background on which the CYC based the following comments in the
>> press release issued with the report:
>>
>>>--------Yachts that experienced problems or encountered difficulties, and
>> even those that
>>> continued racing reported that "exceptional" waves were responsible
>> for inflicting
>>> the damage or causing severe knockdowns. These waves were always a
>minimum
>>> of 20% and up to 100% bigger than the prevailing seas and always
>> came from a
>>> direction other than the prevailing wave pattern.
>>>
>>>-------Although the precise location, timing and depth of the low pressure
>> system were
>>> not accurately forecast, the key issue relating to the weather was
>> the gap in
>>> knowledge between the BOM�s forecasts and the way they were
>> understood by the
>>> sailors. The Bureau assumed that its forecast winds would be
>> interpreted as being
>>> up to 40% more than stated and seas up to 86% bigger. The fleet
>reported
>>> expecting winds and seas to be "as forecast" or a bit
stronger/bigger.
>>
>> Complete copies of the Report of the 1998 Sydney Hobart Review
>> Committee are available in book form for a fee of $20.00 from the
>> Cruising Yacht Club of Australia, New Beach Board, Darling Point, NSW
>> 2027, Telephone: (02) 9363 9731, fax (02) 9363 9745.
>>
>> If you can't be bothered getting one, I'll be doing a summary of this
>> report (as I have already done of the Bureau's report) on Aus Wx News
>> in the next day or two.
>>
>> --
>> Laurier Williams
>> Australian Weather Links and News
>> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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>>
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>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
Australian Severe Weather Association home information page
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
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048
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Illawarra
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 17:39:39 +1000
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Somebody said rainfall determines the boundaries, but it seems that water
catchments seem to play a part too. Going back to the Woolbrook thread a few
weeks ago, logic would place it in Northern Tablelands, but it is NW Slopes.
Braidwood is another example, south coast is not where I would place it, if
any town qualifies as southern tablelands this one would. But the rain in
Braidwood ends up in the Pacific. Another two that buck my theory are Drake
and Tabulam, both are classed under Northern Tablelands, Drake is 500m below
the top of the Northern Tablelands eastern escarpment, well on the way to
the valley floor, whilst Tabulam is practically on the Clarence River.
Michael
> The Southern Highlands is an 'unofficial' part of the Illawarra. The Snowy
> Mountains area is also often refered to as the highlands (esp. NSW ABC
> Weather), which should be correct. The Bowral area is really the uplands,
> the Tablelands are where they should be (although I believe a boundary
> should run right down the top of the range seeing as obvoisly the weather
> is so different on each side) and the snowy mountains area is the real
> highlands.
>
> Andrew.
>
> ----------
> > From: Keith Barnett
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Illawarra
> > Date: Tuesday, 1 June 1999 20:34
> >
> > Oh well, there's another gap filled in my education...maybe it's the
> > press I keep hearing that refer to Bowral in the 'southern highlands'
> > especially if they are talking about tulip festivals or snowfalls...
> >
> > Mark Hardy wrote:
> > >
> > > Keith
> > >
> > > You may be right about the "official" location of Bowral. However, the
> > > Bowral forecast is included in the Illawarra section of the BoM
> districts,
> > > so this would reflect the emphasis in the forecasts.
> > >
> > > IDF05N04
> > > ILLAWARRA
> > > Tonight
> > > Fine. Cool. Fresh southwest to southerly wind, strong at times near
the
> > > coast.
> > >
> > > Precis and temperatures for Tuesday
> > > Wollongong : Fine, fresh winds
> > > Nowra : Fine
> > > Min:09 Max:17
> > > Bowral : Fine
> > > Min:04 Max:12
> > >
> > > It's not unheard of for Bowral to receive snow while Wollongong basks
> in
> > > (chilly) sunshine. So, bad boundaries are probably more to blams than
> bad
> > > forecasts.
> > > Mark
> > >
> > > --
> > > _____________________________________________________
> > > Mark Hardy.
> > > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> > > Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
> > > Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
> > > Mobile 0414 642 739
> > > email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
> > > _____________________________________________________
> > >
> > > ----------
> > > >From: Keith Barnett
> > > >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nice satellite loop + Canberra rain
> > > >Date: Mon, 31 May 1999 9:13 PM
> > > >
> > >
> > > > I thought Bowral was 'officially' in the southern highlands.I know
> it's
> > > > not that far from there to the Illawarra but the climatic
distinction
> > > > would hardly justify including Bowral in the Illawarra forecasts.But
> > > > then I think there has been discussion in this forum as to the whys
> and
> > > > wherefores of official climatic boundaries so I'm quite happy to be
> > > > wrong on this one...
> > > >
> > > > "The Weather Co." wrote:
> > > >>
> > > >> Michael
> > > >>
> > > >> It's a difficult one for forecasters as the Illawarra District
> extends up to
> > > >> Bowral which often receives rain from the west. However, as we so
> often see,
> > > >> it rarely makes it down to the coast.
> > > >> Mark
> > > >> -----Original Message-----
> > > >> From: Michael Thompson
> > > >> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > >> Date: Monday, 31 May 1999 18:08
> > > >> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nice satellite loop + Canberra rain
> > > >>
> > > >> |All up we got nothing, some light drops which did not wet the
> cement around
> > > >> |8pm and that was all.
> > > >> |
> > > >> |I must admit that an Illawarra coast forecast of rain periods with
> west
> > > >> |winds always amuses me, this is not the first time I have seen
such
> and
> > > >> they
> > > >> |rarely eventuate.
> > > >> |
> > > >> |Michael
> > >
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> > >
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049
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Updates to my non-storm photos
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 22:28:05 +1000
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About 20 new sunsets added to
http://thunder.simplenet.com/sunset/sunset.htm
Two rainbows ( more to come ) at
http://thunder.simplenet.com/photo/rainbow.htm
and on my unusual and different page. some convecting stratus type cloud
yes I know that's a contradiction ). This was the day before the yachts got
into trouble.
http://thunder.simplenet.com/photo/unusual.htm
Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com
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050
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart...
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 22:30:54 +1000
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Just a side line to this, I have put up a couple of video stills from the
26th December 1998 of the strange stratus behaviour on the Illawarra
escarpment. The pics are at --
http://thunder.simplenet.com/photo/unusual.htm
Michael
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051
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting weather for NSW
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 22:34:23 +1000
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I have watched the models on this also, a cold pool is predicted to get
isolated near Victoria / NSW border, if it happens just a little further
north it may well generate our first true East Coast low early next week.
Michael
> G'Day Jimmy here
>
> I am quite interested in the weather that may develop over the weekend in
> NSW. A cold pool of air is forecast to pass over.
>
> We will see what happens.
>
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052
X-Originating-Ip: [203.2.193.71]
From: "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Early Photographs of Tornadoes in Australia
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 05:53:22 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi everyone,
In a book with the title: "The Climate and Weather of Australia" published
in 1913, the authors H.A Hunt, Griffith Taylor and E.T Quayle write a
chapter on tornadoes. In it, they give a very good description of tornadic
storms given the information available at the time. Perhaps our media
should read it too since, as they write: "From the cyclone, it [the tornado]
differs in the area affected, but, nevertheless, it is not to be regarded as
a miniature cyclone."
The authors go on to describe a couple of tornadoes occurring in September
of 1911, one of which was photographed. It would be interesting to see if
this photo can be tracked down sometime since it would be one of the
earliest in Australia. I thought it would be an interesting from a
historical perspective to reproduce some of their work here - I apologise
for any transcription errors:
"The name 'tornado' is given to an excessively violent and destructive wind
storm affecting only a narrow strip of country, and producing its
destructive effects, not by a straight blow, but by air in rapid rotation,
as in a whirlwind. From the latter, which is relatively insignificant, the
tornado differs essentially, as it does also from the vastly wider cyclone,
though the terms are often confused.
The tornado is always associated with thunder and hail storms of extremely
violent type. If we regard a thunderstorm as due to the uprushing of a
column of air, from, say, the 4,000 to the 20,000 or even 30,000 feet level
this giving rise to, and in turn being maintained by, the condensation of
aqueous vapour, with the resulting phenomena of rain, hail, electric
discharge, &c., and this column of air to take on a rapid spiral movement,
which it naturally does, then the downward extension of this spiral movement
to the ground provides the tornado. It is in respect to this thunderstorm
origin that it differs from a whirlwind, the latter usually originating at
ground level and not rising high enough to cause condensation in the very
dry, hot air in which it occurs. The radius of action of the tornado may
not be much greater than the few yards covered by an ordinary whirlwind, and
rarely exceeds one-fourth of a mile, but what it lacks in area it more than
makes up in intensity. From the cyclone it differs in the area affected,
but, nevertheless, it is not to be regarded as a miniature cyclone. The
tornado is a part of one thunderstorm; the cyclone is a vastly wider
circulation of the air set in motion, at all events when of tropical origin,
by the prevalence over a considerable area of the earth's surface of
conditions whcih may be incidentally indicated by the occurrence of
thunderstorms and even tornadoes in isolated parts of it. Some of the
primary essentials to these conditions would be heat and atmospheric
humidity above normal. It may be suggested, too, that the vertical
temperature gradient would provide a means of definitely separating the two.
In the tornado or thunderstorm the rising air must at any level, except
possibly near the top, be warmer than the surrounding air at the same level,
while above the cyclone the air soon becomes actually colder than at the
same levels in the surrounding anticyclones. This is, of course, only
another way of saying that a steep vertical temperature gradient is
favourable for the occurrence, first of thunderstorms, and ultimately of
cyclones.
Typical tornadoes are commonly supposed to be confined to North America.
This is only true to the extent that they are undoubtedly more frequent and
probably more violent there than elsewhere. Australian experience provides
many genuine examples, but owing to the sparse population and the character
of the storms themselves they have not yet been the subjects of very
accurate scientific observation.
Judging by the records available, New South Wales and Victoria appear to be
the States most liable to these visitations. In New South Wales they are
most frequent in the summer, occurring only in connexion with the monsoonal
depressions; in Victoria the seem quite as liable to occur in connexion
with strong Antarctic low-pressure systems, and the numbers do not therefore
show the same marked preferences for the summer season.
The conditions most favourable for tornadoes inland and in the summer
are-(1) high temperatures; (2) considerable humidity; (3) very small
barometric gradient, to which may be added a very probable fourth factor,
unusually steep vertical temperature gradient. These seem to be most
frequently provided by extensive but comparitively shallow monsoonal
depressions, which favour a wide gentle air flow southerly from the tropical
interior.
The weather charts for the 25th to 29th September, 1911, show conditions
typically favourable and abundantly justified by results, inasmuch as two
tornadoes resulted. The first was in Victoria at Marong, near Bendigo, on
the afternoon of the 27th September, 1911. This supplied all the
characteristic features of a tornado, the long inverted cone depending from
the dense blue-black thunder cloud, the narrow track, 5 to 12 chains wide
and 12 miles in length, along which indescribable damage was wrought, and
the accompanying voilent thunder and hail storms. Fortunately a photograph
of the storm cloud with its pendent funnel was secured by a gentleman 3
miles distant, and this has been reproduced, together with a full
description of the storm, &c., in the 1911 September number of the
Australian Monthly Weather Report. Two days later the same atmospheric
conditions resulted in a similar storm in New South Wales at Cudal, between
Forbes and Orange. The results in the latter case were not so serious, as
the storm occurred in a sparsely populated area..."
- Extract from a chapter on tornadoes from "The Climate and Weather of
Australia" by H.A Hunt (Commonwealth Meteorologist), Griffith Taylor
(Physiographer), E.T Quayle (Assistant Meteorologist).
Published by Albert J. Mullet, Government Printer, 1913.
______________________________________________________
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053
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 1999 15:43:42 +1000 (EST)
From: Paul Graham [m3052695 at hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au]
X-Sender: m3052695 at hardy
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney to Hobart...
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With regards to the Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race, I have to agree with
Mark. After all, what did sailors do before the days of weather
forecasting? A weather forecast should be seen as a bonus - additional
information - but not something you would risk your life on since there is
always some uncertainty. Sailors, as would aviators, should have a sound
understanding of meteorology and must always be prepared for the worst.
Having said that, I also have to agree with Laurier. That is, there needs
to be better understanding of just what the Bureau's weather forecasts
mean whether they are warnings or just plain outlooks. Take the daily
temperature maxima, for example. If the forecast reads "Expected maximum
of 20 degrees" the reader is meant to understand, implicitly, what time of
day this maximum is likely to be reached. If weather conditions are
stable, this might be mid afternoon. If a wind change is expected, it
could be some other time. Perhaps the forecast should include average
temperatures for smaller time periods - morning and afternoon (daylight
hours), say? With regards to wind gusts, especially in the case of strong
mean wind speeds, a brief statistical rundown might be provided with the
probability of different wind strengths.
- Paul G.
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054
Date: Wed, 02 Jun 1999 21:20:45 +0800
From: Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au]
Organization: Strike One Lightning Photos
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To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Photography competition
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
There has been a fair bit of discussion amongst members of
ASWA Inc. as to how the photo competition should function
month in and month out.
At first it was decided that the competition should be free
in regards to content except that it be weather related.
This caused a few concerns from people who were submitting
photos of severe weather to have them piped in the first
round of selection by sunset photos.
It was suggested that a way around this would be to limit
each photo to the month of competition or the month before
so that people with new photos would be in the running as
well and not be out done with older photos. It would also
enable the competition to base itself around seasonal
themes. The problem we came to with that system was that it
would be impossible to police as to which month the photo
was taken in.
>From that we talked about a theme system where each month
there would be a distinct theme so that sunset photos
competed equally with other sunset photos and hail photos
competed with hail photos.
This is where the competition now stands.
It is intended in the next few weeks to draft up a years
worth of themes re weather and publish them on the ASWA Inc.
site so that everyone is able to see a months theme well in
advance and aim for a photo to be submitted for it.
The theme style of competition kills 2 birds with one stone.
1. The calendar eventually published will have a selection
of the best weather photos published in it but of varying
themes.
2. People who submit photos compete with other photos of the
same class. For example, snow photos will be along side
other snow photos and therefore are a true representation of
the quality of the photo from that perspective.
Some themes will be easier to distinguish and winter clouds
unfortunately is not one of them.
I hope that this email clears up some of the confusion that
exists with the competition.
In the next few weeks there will be an update of the
photography rules and submission details to reflect this
change.
The quality of the photos submitted to date have been very
high and it is a credit to Australia and ASWA Inc. that we
have such a rich collection of weather photos.
My heart actually goes out to the selection committee that
has to judge the best 6-7 photos out of 25-30 truly
wonderful submissions. Now that is the hardest task of all.
--
Michael Fewings
Strike One Lightning Photos
http://strikeone.com.au
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| Document: 990602.htm
Updated: 11 June 1999 |
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