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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Thursday, 10 June 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Heres Hoping........
002 James Harris [jimbohar at hotmail.com] Sydney Fog
003 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Sydney Fog
004 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] Offshore storms + SE QLD wx
005 "Dane Newman" [dpn at bigpond.com] Melbourne Weather conditions
006 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Heres Hoping........
007 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Destabilisation...
008 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Significant SOI values & Aussie-snow
009 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. SOI on the ABC
010 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Current WX Ob.s
011 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Current WX Ob.s
012 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Perth Storms
013 Paul Graham [v_notch at hotmail.com] SOI on the ABC
014 Paul Graham [v_notch at hotmail.com] Sydney WX: Impressive Convective Clouds...
015 "Nick Sykes" [nsykes at labyrinth.net.au] Heavy Rain In Melbourne
016 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Sydney WX: Impressive Convective Clouds...
017 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Sydney WX: Impressive Convective Clouds...
018 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au] Severe T'Storm warning for Perth
019 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Water spout observed off Perth
020 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Significant SOI values & Aussie-snow
021 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Heres Hoping........
022 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Destabilisation...
023 Greg Spencer [hawk at aisnet.net.au] Waterspouts in Perth
024 Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au] Water Spouts Sighted Off the Coast off Perth
025 Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au] Servere T/S for Perth
026 "Matthew Piper" [mjpiper at ozemail.com.au] Sydney WX: Impressive Convective Clouds...
027 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Sydney WX: Impressive Convective Clouds...
028 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] Heres Hoping........
029 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] Offshore storms + SE QLD wx
030 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] SOI on the ABC
031 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] Current WX Ob.s
032 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Re: Strange weather phenom. Any Guesses??
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001
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 08:13:22 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heres Hoping........
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>That was the month Springbrook (on the border and in the mountains) had
>2600mm..
>
>Don White wrote:
>>
>> Paul...
>> What about June 1967 ?? Up to 800 mm around Dorrigo
>> don W.
>>
>> Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au wrote:
That's interesting. That was Adelaide's driest year on record (257mm or
something like that). Now, you don't expect the events that caused the big
wet and the bid dry to be in concordance at two such geographically and
climatically disparate stations - but I for one would like to know what,
for instance, the ENSO was doing that year. Were the big east coast falls
from east coast lows? Was Adelaide's low total from a blocking high to the
east? What about the north west cloudbands?
Any ideas?
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
www.cobweb.com.au/~paisley
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002
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From: James Harris [jimbohar at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Fog
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 08:41:34 EST
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Hi all,
Currently in Nth Sydny there is a fantastic fog around the harbour drifting
in. It is quite low at the moment but quite a sight looking from the 8th
floor all I can see is Fog with the odd building popping out the top. It
seeme to be only located near the harbour as the drive in from St Ives it
was completely clear and sunny all the way in. The was also a beautiful
tinge of blue above Sydney !!!
Also noticed some very nice T'storms out to sea this morning. One was an
absolute classic with a crisp anvil , strong updraught and overshooting top.
This was around 7:30am. Pity I didnt have my camera with me.
GO THE MIGHTY BLUES !!!
Regards, James
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003
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 08:54:23 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Fog
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey James. Yeah they showed the fog on the Today program Weather bulletin this
morning....looked very impressive.
Yes there is a line of Congestus / Small & growing cb just off the coast which
is very interesting. Seems the Low is starting to grow.
last night here moderate - heavy rain at times with strong squally winds from
the SE - E. Really felt like an I woke up this morning - blue sky with some
stratocu around. damn.!!
Paul at Port.
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004
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 10:18:50 +1000
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Offshore storms + SE QLD wx
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey Ben from Brisbane here..
Some nice Cb off the south QLD coast at the moment too, for the fourth
day in a row - although i think they are baby Cb compared to the ones
off the NSW coast if the navy sats are anything to go by!
Some heavy falls overnight in parts of SE QLD as well, Coolangatta
reported 75mm in the 18 hours to 3am.. and allot of that would have been
in a hurry overnight, with some fairly compact rain areas on radar that
looked more like huge storms! only 6mm here.. hoping for some clearing
afternoon thunderies today, but by the look of AVN it's more unlikely
than it is likely..
James Harris wrote:
>
> Hi all,
>
> Currently in Nth Sydny there is a fantastic fog around the harbour drifting
> in. It is quite low at the moment but quite a sight looking from the 8th
> floor all I can see is Fog with the odd building popping out the top. It
> seeme to be only located near the harbour as the drive in from St Ives it
> was completely clear and sunny all the way in. The was also a beautiful
> tinge of blue above Sydney !!!
> Also noticed some very nice T'storms out to sea this morning. One was an
> absolute classic with a crisp anvil , strong updraught and overshooting top.
> This was around 7:30am. Pity I didnt have my camera with me.
>
> GO THE MIGHTY BLUES !!!
>
> Regards, James
>
> ______________________________________________________
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005
From: "Dane Newman" [dpn at bigpond.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne Weather conditions
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 10:29:28 +1000
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Kilsyth observations.
Rainfall to 9am 3.4mm
monthly total to date 11.4mm
Overnight Min 6.3c
Current Temp 10.25am 11.2
Dew point 9
Bar 1016.5 S
A few showers are likely today top about 14c
Tom Becoming Fine 14c
Saturday Fine 15c
Sunday patchy rain 15c
BTW I recently reformatted my hard drive and loaded Windows 98, as usual i stuffed up a couple of things, I have a new ICQ no 40654108. I have lost most of my ICQ contact numbers if anyone wants me on there ICQ list e-mail me at dpn at bigpond.com
Thanks Dane
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006
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heres Hoping........
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 10:38:28 +1000 (EST)
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>
> >That was the month Springbrook (on the border and in the mountains) had
> >2600mm..
> >
> >Don White wrote:
> >>
> >> Paul...
> >> What about June 1967 ?? Up to 800 mm around Dorrigo
> >> don W.
> >>
> >> Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au wrote:
>
>
> That's interesting. That was Adelaide's driest year on record (257mm or
> something like that). Now, you don't expect the events that caused the big
> wet and the bid dry to be in concordance at two such geographically and
> climatically disparate stations - but I for one would like to know what,
> for instance, the ENSO was doing that year. Were the big east coast falls
> from east coast lows? Was Adelaide's low total from a blocking high to the
> east? What about the north west cloudbands?
>
> Any ideas?
>
> Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
The heavy rainfall in 1967 was almost entirely confined to the coast
and adjacent ranges between Sydney and Fraser Island. Annual totals
in the lowest 10% on record occurred in virtually all of Victoria, SA,
and New South Wales west of about 149-150 E (in essence, a line from
Canberra to Moree). As well as Adelaide, it was Melbourne's driest
year on record (with only 1997 coming close).
Even in June, although much of Queensland was wet, away from the coastal
fringe NSW rainfalls were average to below. East coast lows were
responsible for the coastal rain events.
The SOI was near zero throughout the year from March onwards.
I haven't examined the synoptics of the year in detail - but would
surmise that the high pressure belt was further south than usual,
especially in winter.
Blair Trewin
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007
Date: Wed, 09 Jun 1999 09:48:50 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Destabilisation...
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G'day all,
Could someone please explain some of the reasons why such a weather
development as the one described below could bring snow and colder
weather, storms etc. For those of us on weather training wheels, it
might really help us get a better understanding of such things. Thanks
kindly.
Simple language would be a great help too. :-)
Lindsay Pearce
Paul Graham wrote:
>
> Hi Don, Laurier, Michael and everyone,
> It certainly does look like we're in for some interesting weather - perhaps
> a rain band with embedded thunderstorms preceding the change, followed by an
> east coast low and a dumping of snow on high ground....Just have to wait and
> see with the arrival of the next change...
> - Paul G.
>
> >From: "Michael Thompson"
> >
> >I just goes to show why this mailing list is so important ( and
> >interesting ), for me the internet and mailing list has increased my
> >technical knowledge to no end, and I thought I knew heaps before !
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > > Paul - this information is something I hadn't realised. .... and should
> > > have ! Definitely interesting with all sorts of potential outcomes.
> > > don White
> > >
> > > Paul Graham wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Since about mid-way through last week, there has been a pronounced
> >cooling
> > > > at the mid-levels of the troposphere in the Sydney area. 500 temps
> >have
> > > > fallen by nearly 5 degrees C from approximately -16 on Wednesday to
> >around
> > > > -21 by the weekend. It'll be interesting to see if this
> >destabilisation
> > > > is realised in terms of stormy weather - it may help to enhance the
> > > > formation of an east coast low, for example. - Paul G.
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >
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> > >
> >
> >
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> >
>
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008
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 14:05:59 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Significant SOI values & Aussie-snow
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Does anyone on the list have any idea about what values of
SOI are "significant" meaning significant in terms of the
onset of a new ENSO cycle? I've made some value judgements
in my report sent previously but I'd like to solicit some
additional opinions or fact.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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009
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 14:03:16 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Aussie Snow - was Re: aus-wx: SOI on the ABC
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Lindsay wrote on Wed, 02 Jun 1999 18:33:48 -0700:
>
> The ABC indicated the SOI was negative for the first time in 12 months,
> (i think).
Sorry about a late response...
April SOI was 18.5 and May was 1.3 which is not yet negative.
Most models are now predicting a mild La Nina until we return
to El Nino conditions later this year.
I've included the text of a report that I've been writing up
for some years below.
> Does anyone have any reflections on such a reading and how
> it might impact on the snow season in Australia? Can a negative
> reading mean less chance of snow?
>
> Are their indeed records to show seasonal snowfalls and how they
> correlate with the SOI of a given year? I'm interested to compare
> these things.
--- Begin Report ---
I've analysed SOI v/s seasonal snow fall records for Spencers
Creek (1830m) between Perisher Valley and Charlotte's pass
since 1962 and SOI records going back to 1876. Before I present
my findings, I must emphasise that the SOI is simply one
measurement that is the result of a complex coupling between
the oceans, atmosphere, earth and living things. A true picture
of what makes a "best" v/s "poor" snow season in our mountains
will only emerge when all these factors are considered.
For what it's worth, SOI running mean statistics show that
between 1876 and about 1920 there was a tendency for more
El Nino (-ve SOI) conditions than La Nina (+ve SOI). Yearly
averages were 0 in 1897 falling to -0.5 by 1915 and back to
0 by 1920. Snow season (April to November) SOI running means
were -0.5 in 1897 falling to -0.9 by 1915 and back to 0 by
1918. What this indicates is a seasonal variance emerging
that changes over time probably related to the cycle of the
Antartic Circumpolar Current (ACC).
>From 1955 through to 1992, the tendency was for La Nina
conditions with running means peaking in 1975 at 0.8 for
the year and 0.5 for the snow season then falling slowly
until the 1990's. Strong El Nino conditions in 1977, 1982/3,
1987 and from 1992 to 1994 inclusive saw SOI running means
go negative until 1997/8. There has since been a slight
increase caused by the recent mild La Nina.
Average monthly SOI's since 1876 (a), up until 1962 (b)
and from 1962 (c) yield the following results:
============================================================
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
------------------------------------------------------------
a 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.7 -0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 1.0
b 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.6 -0.9 1.2 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 2.0
c-0.3 -0.8 -2.2 -3.5 -0.5 -1.4 -1.6 -0.9 -0.2 -1.5 -0.7 -1.4
============================================================
Essentially and in proportion, many more months since 1962
have recorded -ve SOI's 1962 than since 1876. Now what does
this mean for our snow, if anything at all? Better still,
where is it all heading, other than into melt-water?
The snow depth records suffer from paucity. That is, we
need a better idea of what went on before 1962. There is
also a lack of reliable sites that bear a suitable weather
record from which we can judge local climate trends.
Nevertheless, I would guesstimate that with global warming
effects aside (this is another issue), the years from 1876
through to 1898 would have been similar to what we have
experienced in the latter part of this century. That is,
more El Nino's in general lead to less snow. The good and
bad effect of many El Ninos and La Nina's can be derived
from the snow depth records since 1962.
Let's take a selective look from May to October at the
following table that gives the Average SOI (Ave-SOI), a
judgement on the conditions (El Nino, La Nina, strong-S,
mild-M, neither-? etc.), Average snow-depth (Ave-SD) in
cm, a value judgement on the season (best, good, average,
poor), the snow season start (early, average, late) and
the snow season finish (early, average, late). For example,
a "best" season would have a heavy cover well over the
average, an early start in May and a late season extending
into November. A "poor" season would have below average
cover, maybe a late start in July (though that is not
always so) and an early finish in late September.
==========================================================
Year Ave-SOI El/La? Ave-SD Snow? Start Finish
----------------------------------------------------------
Average -1.0 n/a 97.0 ave W2Jun to W1Oct
----------------------------------------------------------
1962 6.2 La 132.5 good early late
1963 -4.7 M-El 85.0 ave late early
1964 9.7 La 217.5 best ave late
1965 -12.1 El 64.2 poor early late
1966 -1.6 ? 99.2 ave ave ave
1967 2.6 ? 80.8 poor late ave
1968 5.0 M-La 203.3 best early late
1969 -6.8 El 51.7 poor ave early
1970 5.6 M-La 139.2 good ave ave
1971 10.3 S-La 105.8 ave ave ave
1972 -13.6 S-El 120.8 good early early
1973 9.5 La 35.8 poor ave early
1974 8.8 La 119.2 good late late
1975 17.3 S-La 94.2 ave ave ave
1976 -5.4 M-El 79.2 poor late ave
1977 -13.0 S-El 115.8 good early early
1978 4.0 ? 99.2 ave early early
1979 -0.8 ? 80.8 poor late ave
1980 -2.6 ? 98.3 ave late late
1981 6.2 M-La 193.3 best early late
1982 -18.8 S-El 30.8 poor early early
1983 1.6 ? 75.0 poor early early
1984 -1.2 ? 85.8 poor late late
1985 -1.0 ? 79.2 poor ave early
1986 -0.1 ? 103.3 good late late
1987 -15.2 S-El 80.8 poor late ave
1988 11.2 La 67.5 poor early ave
1989 6.4 M-La 56.7 poor late late
1990 1.5 ? 153.3 best late late
1991 -10.6 El 110.0 good late late
1992 -5.7 M-El 132.5 best ave late
1993 -11.7 El 62.5 poor ave early
1994 -15.0 S-El 108.3 good early late
1995 -0.6 ? 95.0 ave ave early
1996 6.3 M-La 119.2 good late late
1997 -18.1 S-El 65.0 poor late early
1998 9.5 La 54.2 poor late early
==========================================================
The very best years, namely 1964, 1968, 1981 and 1990 (sort
of) happen with mild La Nina conditions. This has something
to do with increased chance of good seasonal precipitation.
La Nina conditions are often detrimental as 1973, 1988, 1989
and 1998 point out. El Ninos often reduce the precipitation
leading to very lean seasons as 1965, 1969, 1976, 1979, 1982,
1985, 1993 and 1997 show. There are 50% more poor El Nino
seasons to La Nina seasons.
There has also been a tendency for later starts to the snow
season. Monthly SOI differences show a mild tendency for an
increased SOI May/June prior to 1980 moving to June/July in
the 1990's. The snow-depth record shows a similar tendency
toward later records;
=======================================================
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Ave
-------------------------------------------------------
<1981 0.3 15.0 49.7 107 169 181 117 21.3 82.5
>1981 1.4 2.8 32.2 86 162 178 96 12.5 71.4
=======================================================
While I'm hoping that the drop-off in snow-depth since 1981
is just a seasonal thing brought about by a string of poor
seasons and El Ninos, the scientist in me realises that
while precipitation has remained somewhat stable in the
area over that time period, the only way less snow-depth
is possible is through the detrimental effects of a
general warming trend. This fact can be noted by the
drop-off in snow-depth recorded at the beginning and
end of the season when compared to only a small drop-off
during August and September.
All I can say in conclusion is that we need some really
monsterous snow years to correct the deficit. Our resorts,
by being so low in altitude when compared to those in
North America and Europe, are very vulnerable to any
slight increase of mean temperature. This has clearly
happened in the last 2 decades driven home by the 1998
season which experienced some monster dumps separated
by unseasonally warm conditions.
Finally, a word about the snow-depth record for our
list people from overseas. Aussie-snow has been
measured as having the highest water content of any
snow officially measured. When 360.7cm has been
measured at Spencers Creek, which was the maximum
depth recorded in W4 of August, 1981, that's the
average over a long course comprising flat areas,
hills and between trees. To get that amount of snow
on the ground needs well over 1200mm (rain equivalent)
of snow and ice precipitation packed down. A rough
measure of snow v/s precipitation is 1cm snow for
every 1mm recorded in the rain-guage. That will pack
up to a factor of 4 yielding 2.5mm depth for every 1mm.
For example, in 1998 during the 3 days from August
15 to 17, nearly 1m of light, powder snow fell. By
the time this was measured at Spencers Creek on August
19, this fall had packed-down to less than 20cm. So,
I dream of those "powder" days since it has never
been as light as Utah powder in Australia. But we
can get bulk snow nevertheless. The type of bulk snow
that requires roofs in our ski resorts to bear a
load of over 5 metric tonnes per square metre!
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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010
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 14:21:02 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Current WX Ob.s
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Totally different day here today. Now quite warm , gentle breeze, turkey necks
all round. Feels alot like spring actually.
I have noticed that the current weather is still not "wintery" in fact that the
High pressure systems are still located in the Great Australian Bight region.
They have not moved North for the winter yet. Seems very strange. Any one care
to voice an opinion on this?
Blair? Laurier? Don? Mark?
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011
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Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 14:30:24 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Current WX Ob.s
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Paul/everyone
I just went to Maroubra beach to check out the storms way off the coast,
had nothing better to do on a day off, only 1 storm was visable, took a few
photos before the cloud from the west came in, had a small overshoot on it
as well and a small backshear... could also see anvils from storms way out
further but nothing else... i wish i had read my email at 7am like i
usually do, not 11am or i would have been at the beach 1st thing in the
morning!!
Im not complaining though :)
current obs, warmish here, 20/22 or so id say, (warmish for winter) but the
cloud has now almost totally covered the sky.. hope those WA guys get
something good tonight!
Matt Smith
>
>
>Totally different day here today. Now quite warm , gentle breeze, turkey
necks
>all round. Feels alot like spring actually.
>
>I have noticed that the current weather is still not "wintery" in fact
that the
>High pressure systems are still located in the Great Australian Bight region.
>They have not moved North for the winter yet. Seems very strange. Any one
care
>to voice an opinion on this?
>
>Blair? Laurier? Don? Mark?
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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012
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Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 12:38:33 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Perth Storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Perth's weather looks quite interesting later today and tomorrow, there is
a strong cold front approaching and there are already some heavy showers
and thunderstorms on the local radar. BoM are also expecting the chance of
hail in the metro area tomorrow with strong winds.
IDF02W00
THE FORECAST FOR METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 1150 hours on Thursday, 10/06/99
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY PERTH
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW.
The temperature at 11.30am was 19.8 degrees Celsius.
A shower or two developing today, with the risk of a squally
thunderstorm. Showers increasing tomorrow, with fresh to strong N/NW
winds tending cold S'ly.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES:
Today's Perth Max: 20
Tomorrow's Perth Min: 14 Max: 18
Tomorrow's Mandurah Max: 18
This afternoon should be fine at first, but an approaching front will
cause winds to turn NW'ly and freshen, and showers should develop by
evening. There is the possibility of a squally thunderstorm. The
radar shows a line of showers and thunderstorms about 60km offshore
at 11-30am.
Showers and windy conditions are forecast on Friday, with the passage
of the strong cold front. Some thunder and hail activity is likely,
especially in the afternoon and evening.
A cold night is expected on Friday night, with S'ly winds easing.
Some morning showers may linger into Saturday, with a shower or two
about on Sunday.
Another cold front may bring further showers on Monday.
SATURDAY: Morning showers. Min 05 Max 16
SUNDAY: Shower or two. Min 05 Max 19
MONDAY: Few showers. Min 09 Max 20
Jacob
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013
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From: Paul Graham [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: Aussie Snow - was Re: aus-wx: SOI on the ABC
Date: Wed, 09 Jun 1999 21:43:06 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Excellent statistical rundown Michael! I think it would also be interesting
to have a look at the occurence of phenomena such as east coast lows in
years of large snow depth...
- Paul G.
>From: Michael Scollay
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Aussie Snow - was Re: aus-wx: SOI on the ABC
>Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 14:03:16 +1000
>
>Lindsay wrote on Wed, 02 Jun 1999 18:33:48 -0700:
> >
> > The ABC indicated the SOI was negative for the first time in 12 months,
> > (i think).
>
>Sorry about a late response...
>
>April SOI was 18.5 and May was 1.3 which is not yet negative.
>Most models are now predicting a mild La Nina until we return
>to El Nino conditions later this year.
>
>I've included the text of a report that I've been writing up
>for some years below.
>
> > Does anyone have any reflections on such a reading and how
> > it might impact on the snow season in Australia? Can a negative
> > reading mean less chance of snow?
> >
> > Are their indeed records to show seasonal snowfalls and how they
> > correlate with the SOI of a given year? I'm interested to compare
> > these things.
>
>--- Begin Report ---
>
>I've analysed SOI v/s seasonal snow fall records for Spencers
>Creek (1830m) between Perisher Valley and Charlotte's pass
>since 1962 and SOI records going back to 1876. Before I present
>my findings, I must emphasise that the SOI is simply one
>measurement that is the result of a complex coupling between
>the oceans, atmosphere, earth and living things. A true picture
>of what makes a "best" v/s "poor" snow season in our mountains
>will only emerge when all these factors are considered.
>
>For what it's worth, SOI running mean statistics show that
>between 1876 and about 1920 there was a tendency for more
>El Nino (-ve SOI) conditions than La Nina (+ve SOI). Yearly
>averages were 0 in 1897 falling to -0.5 by 1915 and back to
>0 by 1920. Snow season (April to November) SOI running means
>were -0.5 in 1897 falling to -0.9 by 1915 and back to 0 by
>1918. What this indicates is a seasonal variance emerging
>that changes over time probably related to the cycle of the
>Antartic Circumpolar Current (ACC).
>
>From 1955 through to 1992, the tendency was for La Nina
>conditions with running means peaking in 1975 at 0.8 for
>the year and 0.5 for the snow season then falling slowly
>until the 1990's. Strong El Nino conditions in 1977, 1982/3,
>1987 and from 1992 to 1994 inclusive saw SOI running means
>go negative until 1997/8. There has since been a slight
>increase caused by the recent mild La Nina.
>
>Average monthly SOI's since 1876 (a), up until 1962 (b)
>and from 1962 (c) yield the following results:
>
>============================================================
> Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
>------------------------------------------------------------
>a 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.7 -0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 1.0
>b 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.6 -0.9 1.2 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 2.0
>c-0.3 -0.8 -2.2 -3.5 -0.5 -1.4 -1.6 -0.9 -0.2 -1.5 -0.7 -1.4
>============================================================
>
>Essentially and in proportion, many more months since 1962
>have recorded -ve SOI's 1962 than since 1876. Now what does
>this mean for our snow, if anything at all? Better still,
>where is it all heading, other than into melt-water?
>
>The snow depth records suffer from paucity. That is, we
>need a better idea of what went on before 1962. There is
>also a lack of reliable sites that bear a suitable weather
>record from which we can judge local climate trends.
>Nevertheless, I would guesstimate that with global warming
>effects aside (this is another issue), the years from 1876
>through to 1898 would have been similar to what we have
>experienced in the latter part of this century. That is,
>more El Nino's in general lead to less snow. The good and
>bad effect of many El Ninos and La Nina's can be derived
>from the snow depth records since 1962.
>
>Let's take a selective look from May to October at the
>following table that gives the Average SOI (Ave-SOI), a
>judgement on the conditions (El Nino, La Nina, strong-S,
>mild-M, neither-? etc.), Average snow-depth (Ave-SD) in
>cm, a value judgement on the season (best, good, average,
>poor), the snow season start (early, average, late) and
>the snow season finish (early, average, late). For example,
>a "best" season would have a heavy cover well over the
>average, an early start in May and a late season extending
>into November. A "poor" season would have below average
>cover, maybe a late start in July (though that is not
>always so) and an early finish in late September.
>
>==========================================================
>Year Ave-SOI El/La? Ave-SD Snow? Start Finish
>----------------------------------------------------------
>Average -1.0 n/a 97.0 ave W2Jun to W1Oct
>----------------------------------------------------------
>1962 6.2 La 132.5 good early late
>1963 -4.7 M-El 85.0 ave late early
>1964 9.7 La 217.5 best ave late
>1965 -12.1 El 64.2 poor early late
>1966 -1.6 ? 99.2 ave ave ave
>1967 2.6 ? 80.8 poor late ave
>1968 5.0 M-La 203.3 best early late
>1969 -6.8 El 51.7 poor ave early
>1970 5.6 M-La 139.2 good ave ave
>1971 10.3 S-La 105.8 ave ave ave
>1972 -13.6 S-El 120.8 good early early
>1973 9.5 La 35.8 poor ave early
>1974 8.8 La 119.2 good late late
>1975 17.3 S-La 94.2 ave ave ave
>1976 -5.4 M-El 79.2 poor late ave
>1977 -13.0 S-El 115.8 good early early
>1978 4.0 ? 99.2 ave early early
>1979 -0.8 ? 80.8 poor late ave
>1980 -2.6 ? 98.3 ave late late
>1981 6.2 M-La 193.3 best early late
>1982 -18.8 S-El 30.8 poor early early
>1983 1.6 ? 75.0 poor early early
>1984 -1.2 ? 85.8 poor late late
>1985 -1.0 ? 79.2 poor ave early
>1986 -0.1 ? 103.3 good late late
>1987 -15.2 S-El 80.8 poor late ave
>1988 11.2 La 67.5 poor early ave
>1989 6.4 M-La 56.7 poor late late
>1990 1.5 ? 153.3 best late late
>1991 -10.6 El 110.0 good late late
>1992 -5.7 M-El 132.5 best ave late
>1993 -11.7 El 62.5 poor ave early
>1994 -15.0 S-El 108.3 good early late
>1995 -0.6 ? 95.0 ave ave early
>1996 6.3 M-La 119.2 good late late
>1997 -18.1 S-El 65.0 poor late early
>1998 9.5 La 54.2 poor late early
>==========================================================
>
>The very best years, namely 1964, 1968, 1981 and 1990 (sort
>of) happen with mild La Nina conditions. This has something
>to do with increased chance of good seasonal precipitation.
>La Nina conditions are often detrimental as 1973, 1988, 1989
>and 1998 point out. El Ninos often reduce the precipitation
>leading to very lean seasons as 1965, 1969, 1976, 1979, 1982,
>1985, 1993 and 1997 show. There are 50% more poor El Nino
>seasons to La Nina seasons.
>
>There has also been a tendency for later starts to the snow
>season. Monthly SOI differences show a mild tendency for an
>increased SOI May/June prior to 1980 moving to June/July in
>the 1990's. The snow-depth record shows a similar tendency
>toward later records;
>
>=======================================================
> Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Ave
>-------------------------------------------------------
><1981 0.3 15.0 49.7 107 169 181 117 21.3 82.5
> >1981 1.4 2.8 32.2 86 162 178 96 12.5 71.4
>=======================================================
>
>While I'm hoping that the drop-off in snow-depth since 1981
>is just a seasonal thing brought about by a string of poor
>seasons and El Ninos, the scientist in me realises that
>while precipitation has remained somewhat stable in the
>area over that time period, the only way less snow-depth
>is possible is through the detrimental effects of a
>general warming trend. This fact can be noted by the
>drop-off in snow-depth recorded at the beginning and
>end of the season when compared to only a small drop-off
>during August and September.
>
>All I can say in conclusion is that we need some really
>monsterous snow years to correct the deficit. Our resorts,
>by being so low in altitude when compared to those in
>North America and Europe, are very vulnerable to any
>slight increase of mean temperature. This has clearly
>happened in the last 2 decades driven home by the 1998
>season which experienced some monster dumps separated
>by unseasonally warm conditions.
>
>Finally, a word about the snow-depth record for our
>list people from overseas. Aussie-snow has been
>measured as having the highest water content of any
>snow officially measured. When 360.7cm has been
>measured at Spencers Creek, which was the maximum
>depth recorded in W4 of August, 1981, that's the
>average over a long course comprising flat areas,
>hills and between trees. To get that amount of snow
>on the ground needs well over 1200mm (rain equivalent)
>of snow and ice precipitation packed down. A rough
>measure of snow v/s precipitation is 1cm snow for
>every 1mm recorded in the rain-guage. That will pack
>up to a factor of 4 yielding 2.5mm depth for every 1mm.
>For example, in 1998 during the 3 days from August
>15 to 17, nearly 1m of light, powder snow fell. By
>the time this was measured at Spencers Creek on August
>19, this fall had packed-down to less than 20cm. So,
>I dream of those "powder" days since it has never
>been as light as Utah powder in Australia. But we
>can get bulk snow nevertheless. The type of bulk snow
>that requires roofs in our ski resorts to bear a
>load of over 5 metric tonnes per square metre!
>
>Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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014
X-Originating-Ip: [203.2.193.71]
From: Paul Graham [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney WX: Impressive Convective Clouds...
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 00:16:37 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Some very impressive convective clouds moved across Sydney this afternoon
dumping heavy showers. Watching the cloud front roll in was like watching a
severe storm front approach except there was no lightning! It had all the
features of a thunderstorm except lightning. As the cloud moved overhead
the wind it was followed by a gust of wind and some showers. After that it
all cleared away to the east. Very tall cumulus could be seen out to the SE
in the late afternoon sunlight.
- Paul G.
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015
From: "Nick Sykes" [nsykes at labyrinth.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Heavy Rain In Melbourne
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 17:18:51 +1000
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Hi all
Well after nothing much all day a good period of heavy rain has set in in Melbourne. In the last hour I have had 17mm (Ashwood) and looks like more is streaming up the bay, so hopefully more to come. This is certainly a better fall than anyone imagined out of this front.
It looked dead early this morning (the front), but it certainly has produced now.
Another heavy shower just now, could get 20plus mm
Nick
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016
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Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 17:42:35 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney WX: Impressive Convective Clouds...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Paul
I saw this developing on radar and when looked outside to see all the base
features, drove to my lookout at burwood, and took a few photos as it was
developing right over my head!/starting to rain/raining, I had 2mm at my
house from it.
It looked really nice and you are right, looked like your typical storm
comming across, and you are right, no lightning!
Anyway just thought id share that with you :)
Matt Smith
>Some very impressive convective clouds moved across Sydney this afternoon
>dumping heavy showers. Watching the cloud front roll in was like watching a
>severe storm front approach except there was no lightning! It had all the
>features of a thunderstorm except lightning. As the cloud moved overhead
>the wind it was followed by a gust of wind and some showers. After that it
>all cleared away to the east. Very tall cumulus could be seen out to the SE
>in the late afternoon sunlight.
>- Paul G.
>
>
>______________________________________________________
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>
>
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017
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Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 17:50:26 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney WX: Impressive Convective Clouds...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi. From My andle guys it also looked impressive and the angle of the
preceeding rainshaft indicated some sort of squall or gust. It was perhaps
made more impressive by the fact that the suns rays improved the contrast.
I was fully aware of this.
Jimmy Deguara
At 17:42 10/06/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Paul
>I saw this developing on radar and when looked outside to see all the base
>features, drove to my lookout at burwood, and took a few photos as it was
>developing right over my head!/starting to rain/raining, I had 2mm at my
>house from it.
>It looked really nice and you are right, looked like your typical storm
>comming across, and you are right, no lightning!
>Anyway just thought id share that with you :)
>
>Matt Smith
>
>
>>Some very impressive convective clouds moved across Sydney this afternoon
>>dumping heavy showers. Watching the cloud front roll in was like
watching a
>>severe storm front approach except there was no lightning! It had all the
>>features of a thunderstorm except lightning. As the cloud moved overhead
>>the wind it was followed by a gust of wind and some showers. After that it
>>all cleared away to the east. Very tall cumulus could be seen out to the
SE
>>in the late afternoon sunlight.
>>- Paul G.
>>
>>
>>______________________________________________________
>>Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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>>
>>
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>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
Australian Severe Weather Association home information page
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
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018
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 17:56:14 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at rmitel.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Severe T'Storm warning for Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
TOP PRIORITY
FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED BY BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY PERTH
AT 3.30PM 10/06/1999
PEOPLE IN THE THE PERTH METROPOLITAN AREA ARE WARNED OF THE APPROACH
OF POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST..
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THAT COULD RESULT
IN DAMAGE TO PROPERTY IN THE NEXT HOUR.
PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS, MOVE VEHICLES UNDER COVER
THEN SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. YACHTS AND SMALL CRAFT ON THE RIVER AND
LOCAL WATERS SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS.
THE NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE 4.30PM.
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019
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Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 16:15:33 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Water spout observed off Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
IDF02W00
THE FORECAST FOR METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 1535 hours on Thursday, 10/06/99
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY PERTH
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW.
The temperature at 11.30am was 19.8 degrees Celsius.
A severe thunderstorm warning for the Metro area.
A thunderstorm or two this afternoon, with the risk of damaging
squalls and hail. A local heavy fall possible.
Showers increasing tomorrow, with fresh to strong N/NW
winds tending cold S'ly.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES:
Today's Perth Max: 20
Tomorrow's Perth Min: 14 Max: 18
Tomorrow's Mandurah Max: 18
A water spout has been observed near the west coast at 3-15pm, and a
severe thunderstorm warning has been issued. Damaging squalls are
possible, as well as hail and a local heavy fall.
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020
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 19:13:30 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Significant SOI values & Aussie-snow
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
If it were me I would tend to be guided by the 5 or so different
categories that exist for the various SOI phases which I think are
consistently positive,rapidly falling, rapidly rising, consistently
negative..the 5th one I can't recall just now and the terminology above
might not be quite to the letter. I'm not sure if the Long Paddock
website defines the boundaries of the various phases. I do know that any
'trend' has to be maintained for 30 days before it's regarded as
anything significant.
I presume any change, particularly from one trend to another, would
indicate
at least a change in the ENSO pattern but there would have to be a
consistent trend for the 30 day period for that to be happening.For
example at present the daily readings are all over the place like a rash
and sea surface temps are complicating the issue by remaining relatively
high despite falling SOI values in recent weeks. The present trend is
being described on the 3 month outlook for median rainfall as 'rapidly
falling'.
Possibly you are aware of some of these things already but if not I hope
this is helpful.
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
> Does anyone on the list have any idea about what values of
> SOI are "significant" meaning significant in terms of the
> onset of a new ENSO cycle? I've made some value judgements
> in my report sent previously but I'd like to solicit some
> additional opinions or fact.
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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021
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 19:25:40 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heres Hoping........
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I'm just going through my hand-copied (from the newspaper) charts for
June 1967 .There was:
1.On 1st June, following a weak cold front, high pressure slow moving
over southeast Australia and Tasmania (when it got as high as 1046mb
east of Hobart, a figure which I believe may be in dispute), with an
inland trough over western Qld which triggered an east coast low off the
mid-North Qld coast. moving south..these latter developments occurred
from 4th and the high persisted in the south Tasman until the 16th with
the low recurving toward the central NSW coast briefly on the 16th.
2.On 20.6.67 another high which dived rapidly southeast from Adelaide to
the southern Tasman and another low off about Bundaberg which moved
south and was captured by westerlies off the north coast of NSW
3.A further east coast low off Brisbane on 24.6.67 with another high
moving southeast from the Bight to the southern Tasman where it remained
until the 30th. During this period the low moved right down the NSW
coast to northeast Tasmania.
Adelaide's dry weather was almost totally due to those high pressure
systems which ,prior to their southern excursion,moved right over South
Australia from the west along a fairly typical track for June.
Blair Trewin wrote:
>
> >
> > >That was the month Springbrook (on the border and in the mountains) had
> > >2600mm..
> > >
> > >Don White wrote:
> > >>
> > >> Paul...
> > >> What about June 1967 ?? Up to 800 mm around Dorrigo
> > >> don W.
> > >>
> > >> Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au wrote:
> >
> >
> > That's interesting. That was Adelaide's driest year on record (257mm or
> > something like that). Now, you don't expect the events that caused the big
> > wet and the bid dry to be in concordance at two such geographically and
> > climatically disparate stations - but I for one would like to know what,
> > for instance, the ENSO was doing that year. Were the big east coast falls
> > from east coast lows? Was Adelaide's low total from a blocking high to the
> > east? What about the north west cloudbands?
> >
> > Any ideas?
> >
> > Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
>
> The heavy rainfall in 1967 was almost entirely confined to the coast
> and adjacent ranges between Sydney and Fraser Island. Annual totals
> in the lowest 10% on record occurred in virtually all of Victoria, SA,
> and New South Wales west of about 149-150 E (in essence, a line from
> Canberra to Moree). As well as Adelaide, it was Melbourne's driest
> year on record (with only 1997 coming close).
>
> Even in June, although much of Queensland was wet, away from the coastal
> fringe NSW rainfalls were average to below. East coast lows were
> responsible for the coastal rain events.
>
> The SOI was near zero throughout the year from March onwards.
>
> I haven't examined the synoptics of the year in detail - but would
> surmise that the high pressure belt was further south than usual,
> especially in winter.
>
> Blair Trewin
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022
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 19:27:51 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Destabilisation...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
The snow will often fall if the disturbance bringing the rain is caused
by a 'cold pool' (a low) in the upper air.As they usually follow an east
coast low they bring heavy snow if they are far enough north and even
more snow if there is a southeast (and therefore moist) airstream.
Lindsay wrote:
>
> G'day all,
>
> Could someone please explain some of the reasons why such a weather
> development as the one described below could bring snow and colder
> weather, storms etc. For those of us on weather training wheels, it
> might really help us get a better understanding of such things. Thanks
> kindly.
>
> Simple language would be a great help too. :-)
>
> Lindsay Pearce
>
> Paul Graham wrote:
> >
> > Hi Don, Laurier, Michael and everyone,
> > It certainly does look like we're in for some interesting weather - perhaps
> > a rain band with embedded thunderstorms preceding the change, followed by an
> > east coast low and a dumping of snow on high ground....Just have to wait and
> > see with the arrival of the next change...
> > - Paul G.
> >
> > >From: "Michael Thompson"
> > >
> > >I just goes to show why this mailing list is so important ( and
> > >interesting ), for me the internet and mailing list has increased my
> > >technical knowledge to no end, and I thought I knew heaps before !
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > Paul - this information is something I hadn't realised. .... and should
> > > > have ! Definitely interesting with all sorts of potential outcomes.
> > > > don White
> > > >
> > > > Paul Graham wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Since about mid-way through last week, there has been a pronounced
> > >cooling
> > > > > at the mid-levels of the troposphere in the Sydney area. 500 temps
> > >have
> > > > > fallen by nearly 5 degrees C from approximately -16 on Wednesday to
> > >around
> > > > > -21 by the weekend. It'll be interesting to see if this
> > >destabilisation
> > > > > is realised in terms of stormy weather - it may help to enhance the
> > > > > formation of an east coast low, for example. - Paul G.
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> >
> > ______________________________________________________
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023
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 17:36:27 +0800
From: Greg Spencer [hawk at aisnet.net.au]
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To: Aussie Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Waterspouts in Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All
Well it had to happen one day, I saw my first funnel cloud :-))))))
I decided to bring the camera with me while taking my brother to work
with the hope of taking some photo's of the storms around the city
today. I did take the photo's I wanted and decided to go for a drive
down the coast to intercept one of the cells as it crossed the coast
(geeze peak hour traffic can be a problem while chasing).
As it turned out, intercepting it as it crossed the coast didnt matter
to much because as I was driving down the West Coast Highway at about
16:20, which lies right on the coast, I took a quick look at the storm
and nearly ran off the road through shock at what I saw. There it was, a
funnel streched 2/3 the way from the cloud to the water. I quickly found
the nearest parking area and pulled over to watch this unbelievable
site!!! A few other cars pulled into the parking area shortly after me
asking if I had seen the funnel too. I think they were just as excited
and amased to see it as I was.
Although this was absolutely unreal, there had to be something to ruin
things for me. All those pics i took before used all my film so
unfortunately I dont have pics to show everyone :-((((. I will however
post the pics that I do have to the net when I get them developed.
Regards
Greg from Perth
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024
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 17:46:37 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au]
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Subject: aus-wx: Water Spouts Sighted Off the Coast off Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Today was a very good day for us in Perth today, I first saw a water
spout off the coast of perth at about 15.20 local time. I promptly rung
the bom and spoke the Barry Hanstrum about it and he said that the air
force had already spoken to him about the numerous Water spouts that
they had seen already.
Hawk also seen a water spout closer to the coast than the one i
seen, but it didn't reach the water so it was only a funnel cloud. But
he still seen one tho as did i but the one i seen was at the NW end of a
developing TS cell, just about right at the back end of the developing
storm. It was only a thin one tho, the water spout but that is most
properly because it was so far out to sea.
Also a truck was hit by lightning at a busy Canning Vale
intersection and it burst in to flames directly after the strike. Five
other Cars were also involved in the same incident.
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025
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 17:48:00 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au]
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To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Servere T/S for Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
IDW10W01
BUREAU METEOROLOGY
AREA05:
TOP PRIORITY
FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED BY BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY PERTH
AT 4.30PM 10/06/1999
PEOPLE IN THE THE PERTH METROPOLITAN AREA ARE WARNED OF THE APPROACH
OF POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST..
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THAT COULD RESULT
IN DAMAGE TO PROPERTY IN THE NEXT HOUR.
PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS, MOVE VEHICLES UNDER COVER
THEN SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. YACHTS AND SMALL CRAFT ON THE RIVER AND
LOCAL WATERS SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS.
THE NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE 5.30PM.
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026
From: "Matthew Piper" [mjpiper at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney WX: Impressive Convective Clouds...
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 20:13:43 +1000
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Hi Everyone,
I too noticed the storms out to sea and the showers over the Sydney area. I
work on the 23rd Floor of a building next to Darling Harbour and could
clearly see some quite spectacular clouds particularly down to the south. I
noticed these at around 4pm.
Regarding the fog in Sydney this morning by the time I got to work at 9am it
had lifted so I missed out on it. However coming down through the western
suburbs there was some quite thick fog especially at the base of the Blue
Mtns.
Matthew Piper
----- Original Message -----
From: Paul Graham [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Thursday, 10 June 1999 17:16
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney WX: Impressive Convective Clouds...
> Some very impressive convective clouds moved across Sydney this afternoon
> dumping heavy showers. Watching the cloud front roll in was like watching
a
> severe storm front approach except there was no lightning! It had all the
> features of a thunderstorm except lightning. As the cloud moved overhead
> the wind it was followed by a gust of wind and some showers. After that
it
> all cleared away to the east. Very tall cumulus could be seen out to the
SE
> in the late afternoon sunlight.
> - Paul G.
>
>
> ______________________________________________________
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027
X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
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Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 20:41:53 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney WX: Impressive Convective Clouds...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Yeh Matt, we got the fog here as usual thick but it began to lift as well
as clear due to a light SW wind. We must be one fot he fog capitals in
Sydney. This year has seen quite a few fogs here in Schofields and quite
thick too.
Jimmy Deguara
At 20:13 10/06/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Everyone,
>
>I too noticed the storms out to sea and the showers over the Sydney area. I
>work on the 23rd Floor of a building next to Darling Harbour and could
>clearly see some quite spectacular clouds particularly down to the south. I
>noticed these at around 4pm.
>
>Regarding the fog in Sydney this morning by the time I got to work at 9am it
>had lifted so I missed out on it. However coming down through the western
>suburbs there was some quite thick fog especially at the base of the Blue
>Mtns.
>
>Matthew Piper
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Paul Graham
>To:
>Sent: Thursday, 10 June 1999 17:16
>Subject: aus-wx: Sydney WX: Impressive Convective Clouds...
>
>
>> Some very impressive convective clouds moved across Sydney this afternoon
>> dumping heavy showers. Watching the cloud front roll in was like watching
>a
>> severe storm front approach except there was no lightning! It had all the
>> features of a thunderstorm except lightning. As the cloud moved overhead
>> the wind it was followed by a gust of wind and some showers. After that
>it
>> all cleared away to the east. Very tall cumulus could be seen out to the
>SE
>> in the late afternoon sunlight.
>> - Paul G.
>>
>>
>> ______________________________________________________
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>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>
>
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>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
Australian Severe Weather Association home information page
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
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028
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 21:42:46 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heres Hoping........
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Phil...
The feature of June 1967 and to a large extent to whole Winter was
strong high pressure in the southern Tasman. Easterly winds dominated
throughout the month. Rainfall right along the coast was between 200 and
500% of normal. sydney and mostl centres to the north had > 20 days
rain. Ave min temps were at record levels - from memory, Sydney's ave
min was 12.8 - the warmest ever, only 1991 on 12.5 has been above 11.
Inland E/NE winds dominated - rare for June and no upper distubances.
Two major east coast lows developed as well. Brisbane and Sunshine coast
also had record June rain.
don White
Phil Bagust wrote:
>
> >That was the month Springbrook (on the border and in the mountains) had
> >2600mm..
> >
> >Don White wrote:
> >>
> >> Paul...
> >> What about June 1967 ?? Up to 800 mm around Dorrigo
> >> don W.
> >>
> >> Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au wrote:
>
> That's interesting. That was Adelaide's driest year on record (257mm or
> something like that). Now, you don't expect the events that caused the big
> wet and the bid dry to be in concordance at two such geographically and
> climatically disparate stations - but I for one would like to know what,
> for instance, the ENSO was doing that year. Were the big east coast falls
> from east coast lows? Was Adelaide's low total from a blocking high to the
> east? What about the north west cloudbands?
>
> Any ideas?
>
> Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
> paisley at cobweb.com.au
> www.cobweb.com.au/~paisley
>
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029
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 21:44:04 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Offshore storms + SE QLD wx
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Coolangatta had 50 of the 75 between 9 & 3 Wednesday
don W.
Ben Quinn wrote:
>
> Hey Ben from Brisbane here..
>
> Some nice Cb off the south QLD coast at the moment too, for the fourth
> day in a row - although i think they are baby Cb compared to the ones
> off the NSW coast if the navy sats are anything to go by!
>
> Some heavy falls overnight in parts of SE QLD as well, Coolangatta
> reported 75mm in the 18 hours to 3am.. and allot of that would have been
> in a hurry overnight, with some fairly compact rain areas on radar that
> looked more like huge storms! only 6mm here.. hoping for some clearing
> afternoon thunderies today, but by the look of AVN it's more unlikely
> than it is likely..
>
> James Harris wrote:
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> > Currently in Nth Sydny there is a fantastic fog around the harbour drifting
> > in. It is quite low at the moment but quite a sight looking from the 8th
> > floor all I can see is Fog with the odd building popping out the top. It
> > seeme to be only located near the harbour as the drive in from St Ives it
> > was completely clear and sunny all the way in. The was also a beautiful
> > tinge of blue above Sydney !!!
> > Also noticed some very nice T'storms out to sea this morning. One was an
> > absolute classic with a crisp anvil , strong updraught and overshooting top.
> > This was around 7:30am. Pity I didnt have my camera with me.
> >
> > GO THE MIGHTY BLUES !!!
> >
> > Regards, James
> >
> > ______________________________________________________
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030
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 21:45:40 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
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Subject: Re: Aussie Snow - was Re: aus-wx: SOI on the ABC
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Michael..
I haven't seen any model predicting a retrun to El nino later this
year. What is the souce of that?
Don W
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
> Lindsay wrote on Wed, 02 Jun 1999 18:33:48 -0700:
> >
> > The ABC indicated the SOI was negative for the first time in 12 months,
> > (i think).
>
> Sorry about a late response...
>
> April SOI was 18.5 and May was 1.3 which is not yet negative.
> Most models are now predicting a mild La Nina until we return
> to El Nino conditions later this year.
>
> I've included the text of a report that I've been writing up
> for some years below.
>
> > Does anyone have any reflections on such a reading and how
> > it might impact on the snow season in Australia? Can a negative
> > reading mean less chance of snow?
> >
> > Are their indeed records to show seasonal snowfalls and how they
> > correlate with the SOI of a given year? I'm interested to compare
> > these things.
>
> --- Begin Report ---
>
> I've analysed SOI v/s seasonal snow fall records for Spencers
> Creek (1830m) between Perisher Valley and Charlotte's pass
> since 1962 and SOI records going back to 1876. Before I present
> my findings, I must emphasise that the SOI is simply one
> measurement that is the result of a complex coupling between
> the oceans, atmosphere, earth and living things. A true picture
> of what makes a "best" v/s "poor" snow season in our mountains
> will only emerge when all these factors are considered.
>
> For what it's worth, SOI running mean statistics show that
> between 1876 and about 1920 there was a tendency for more
> El Nino (-ve SOI) conditions than La Nina (+ve SOI). Yearly
> averages were 0 in 1897 falling to -0.5 by 1915 and back to
> 0 by 1920. Snow season (April to November) SOI running means
> were -0.5 in 1897 falling to -0.9 by 1915 and back to 0 by
> 1918. What this indicates is a seasonal variance emerging
> that changes over time probably related to the cycle of the
> Antartic Circumpolar Current (ACC).
>
> >From 1955 through to 1992, the tendency was for La Nina
> conditions with running means peaking in 1975 at 0.8 for
> the year and 0.5 for the snow season then falling slowly
> until the 1990's. Strong El Nino conditions in 1977, 1982/3,
> 1987 and from 1992 to 1994 inclusive saw SOI running means
> go negative until 1997/8. There has since been a slight
> increase caused by the recent mild La Nina.
>
> Average monthly SOI's since 1876 (a), up until 1962 (b)
> and from 1962 (c) yield the following results:
>
> ============================================================
> Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
> ------------------------------------------------------------
> a 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.7 -0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 1.0
> b 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.6 -0.9 1.2 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 2.0
> c-0.3 -0.8 -2.2 -3.5 -0.5 -1.4 -1.6 -0.9 -0.2 -1.5 -0.7 -1.4
> ============================================================
>
> Essentially and in proportion, many more months since 1962
> have recorded -ve SOI's 1962 than since 1876. Now what does
> this mean for our snow, if anything at all? Better still,
> where is it all heading, other than into melt-water?
>
> The snow depth records suffer from paucity. That is, we
> need a better idea of what went on before 1962. There is
> also a lack of reliable sites that bear a suitable weather
> record from which we can judge local climate trends.
> Nevertheless, I would guesstimate that with global warming
> effects aside (this is another issue), the years from 1876
> through to 1898 would have been similar to what we have
> experienced in the latter part of this century. That is,
> more El Nino's in general lead to less snow. The good and
> bad effect of many El Ninos and La Nina's can be derived
> from the snow depth records since 1962.
>
> Let's take a selective look from May to October at the
> following table that gives the Average SOI (Ave-SOI), a
> judgement on the conditions (El Nino, La Nina, strong-S,
> mild-M, neither-? etc.), Average snow-depth (Ave-SD) in
> cm, a value judgement on the season (best, good, average,
> poor), the snow season start (early, average, late) and
> the snow season finish (early, average, late). For example,
> a "best" season would have a heavy cover well over the
> average, an early start in May and a late season extending
> into November. A "poor" season would have below average
> cover, maybe a late start in July (though that is not
> always so) and an early finish in late September.
>
> ==========================================================
> Year Ave-SOI El/La? Ave-SD Snow? Start Finish
> ----------------------------------------------------------
> Average -1.0 n/a 97.0 ave W2Jun to W1Oct
> ----------------------------------------------------------
> 1962 6.2 La 132.5 good early late
> 1963 -4.7 M-El 85.0 ave late early
> 1964 9.7 La 217.5 best ave late
> 1965 -12.1 El 64.2 poor early late
> 1966 -1.6 ? 99.2 ave ave ave
> 1967 2.6 ? 80.8 poor late ave
> 1968 5.0 M-La 203.3 best early late
> 1969 -6.8 El 51.7 poor ave early
> 1970 5.6 M-La 139.2 good ave ave
> 1971 10.3 S-La 105.8 ave ave ave
> 1972 -13.6 S-El 120.8 good early early
> 1973 9.5 La 35.8 poor ave early
> 1974 8.8 La 119.2 good late late
> 1975 17.3 S-La 94.2 ave ave ave
> 1976 -5.4 M-El 79.2 poor late ave
> 1977 -13.0 S-El 115.8 good early early
> 1978 4.0 ? 99.2 ave early early
> 1979 -0.8 ? 80.8 poor late ave
> 1980 -2.6 ? 98.3 ave late late
> 1981 6.2 M-La 193.3 best early late
> 1982 -18.8 S-El 30.8 poor early early
> 1983 1.6 ? 75.0 poor early early
> 1984 -1.2 ? 85.8 poor late late
> 1985 -1.0 ? 79.2 poor ave early
> 1986 -0.1 ? 103.3 good late late
> 1987 -15.2 S-El 80.8 poor late ave
> 1988 11.2 La 67.5 poor early ave
> 1989 6.4 M-La 56.7 poor late late
> 1990 1.5 ? 153.3 best late late
> 1991 -10.6 El 110.0 good late late
> 1992 -5.7 M-El 132.5 best ave late
> 1993 -11.7 El 62.5 poor ave early
> 1994 -15.0 S-El 108.3 good early late
> 1995 -0.6 ? 95.0 ave ave early
> 1996 6.3 M-La 119.2 good late late
> 1997 -18.1 S-El 65.0 poor late early
> 1998 9.5 La 54.2 poor late early
> ==========================================================
>
> The very best years, namely 1964, 1968, 1981 and 1990 (sort
> of) happen with mild La Nina conditions. This has something
> to do with increased chance of good seasonal precipitation.
> La Nina conditions are often detrimental as 1973, 1988, 1989
> and 1998 point out. El Ninos often reduce the precipitation
> leading to very lean seasons as 1965, 1969, 1976, 1979, 1982,
> 1985, 1993 and 1997 show. There are 50% more poor El Nino
> seasons to La Nina seasons.
>
> There has also been a tendency for later starts to the snow
> season. Monthly SOI differences show a mild tendency for an
> increased SOI May/June prior to 1980 moving to June/July in
> the 1990's. The snow-depth record shows a similar tendency
> toward later records;
>
> =======================================================
> Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Ave
> -------------------------------------------------------
> <1981 0.3 15.0 49.7 107 169 181 117 21.3 82.5
> >1981 1.4 2.8 32.2 86 162 178 96 12.5 71.4
> =======================================================
>
> While I'm hoping that the drop-off in snow-depth since 1981
> is just a seasonal thing brought about by a string of poor
> seasons and El Ninos, the scientist in me realises that
> while precipitation has remained somewhat stable in the
> area over that time period, the only way less snow-depth
> is possible is through the detrimental effects of a
> general warming trend. This fact can be noted by the
> drop-off in snow-depth recorded at the beginning and
> end of the season when compared to only a small drop-off
> during August and September.
>
> All I can say in conclusion is that we need some really
> monsterous snow years to correct the deficit. Our resorts,
> by being so low in altitude when compared to those in
> North America and Europe, are very vulnerable to any
> slight increase of mean temperature. This has clearly
> happened in the last 2 decades driven home by the 1998
> season which experienced some monster dumps separated
> by unseasonally warm conditions.
>
> Finally, a word about the snow-depth record for our
> list people from overseas. Aussie-snow has been
> measured as having the highest water content of any
> snow officially measured. When 360.7cm has been
> measured at Spencers Creek, which was the maximum
> depth recorded in W4 of August, 1981, that's the
> average over a long course comprising flat areas,
> hills and between trees. To get that amount of snow
> on the ground needs well over 1200mm (rain equivalent)
> of snow and ice precipitation packed down. A rough
> measure of snow v/s precipitation is 1cm snow for
> every 1mm recorded in the rain-guage. That will pack
> up to a factor of 4 yielding 2.5mm depth for every 1mm.
> For example, in 1998 during the 3 days from August
> 15 to 17, nearly 1m of light, powder snow fell. By
> the time this was measured at Spencers Creek on August
> 19, this fall had packed-down to less than 20cm. So,
> I dream of those "powder" days since it has never
> been as light as Utah powder in Australia. But we
> can get bulk snow nevertheless. The type of bulk snow
> that requires roofs in our ski resorts to bear a
> load of over 5 metric tonnes per square metre!
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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031
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 21:47:55 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Current WX Ob.s
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Paul...
There has been a tendency for many weeks for all model to advext
tropical instability south... upper air pmodel forecast have been
variable - confuusing to say the least and mostly wring... but I feel it
is only a matter of time before.....???
Get out the plywood
Don W
Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au wrote:
>
> Totally different day here today. Now quite warm , gentle breeze, turkey necks
> all round. Feels alot like spring actually.
>
> I have noticed that the current weather is still not "wintery" in fact that the
> High pressure systems are still located in the Great Australian Bight region.
> They have not moved North for the winter yet. Seems very strange. Any one care
> to voice an opinion on this?
>
> Blair? Laurier? Don? Mark?
>
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032
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Date: Thu, 10 Jun 1999 23:02:45 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Strange weather phenom. Any Guesses??
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Hi all,
Got this interesting historic account from the 'James Craig' restoration
page (she's a historic 3 masted barque being restored in Sydney).
Would anybody care to guess what kind of met. phenomenon is being described
here?? (my guess is some kind of roll cloud al la the gulf 'Morning
Glory', but then there's the rain??...)
Captain J. Maitland Thompson, formerly a crew member aboard James Craig,
resided in South Australia, was
of immense help to the Museum in its research for the restoration of
James Craig. Here is a dramatic
occurrence from his experiences on the James Craig.
In 1920, when I was Able Seaman in the barque James Craig, we were running
before a very stiff breeze from the south west on a voyage from Adelaide to
Auckland, New Zealand. The yards were not quite square. We were doing at
least eight knots with a clear cloudless sky; it was just breaking day.
Steering by compass, I occasionally lifted my eyes to the horizon and
suddenly, I noticed a dark patch of cloud rising above the sky line. As it
rose it seemed to take the form of a wide band, with a clear sky behind it.
Mr Carver, the mate, was close by, and I drew his attention to it. He walked
to the mizzen rigging and stood gazing ahead. After a time he suddenly
called for 'all hands on deck'. The very urgency of his voice prompted
immediate response, and all hands came tumbling out over the wash sill of
the crew's deckhouse.
The next order was 'lee-fore'brace', with Mr Carver going to the weather
braces to slack them away as the lee braces were hauled in; then the main
braces, until the yards were close hauled on the starboard tack. We were
still headed east with the wind on the starboard quarter.
I was having a very difficult task in keeping the ship on course because of
the set of the sails. Now Mr Carver began shortening sail, letting every
upper sail fly.
Leaving the crew to clew up as best they could, he came and stood by me and
ordered me to 'down helm' gently. By now this strange phenomenon was fast
approaching and we realised that is was an area of hurricane force wind
stretching from horizon to horizon. As it neared us, what had been our fair
wind gradually died, and a peculiar ripple took over on the surface of the
sea. With a crack that shook the ship from stern to stern, we were struck by
this great force with its blinding rain, travelling in the exact opposite
direction to our previous fair wind.
Owing to the brilliant seamanship of Mr Carver, we were not caught aback,
but were now almost hove-to on the starboard tack. Two of the upper sails
which had not been clewed up were torn to shreds.
We lay like this, while this terrific force of wind and rain passed on and
beyond us. Nearing its passing it blew lighter, and when it had passed
astern altogether, the sea again rippled and quickly settled down, and the
wind took up its former direction. The ship was paid off and we again
resumed our former steady course.
As quickly as it had approached us, the streak of devastation passed away
astern and disappeared beyond the horizon.
When we had settled down, I asked Mr Carver if he had ever before
experienced such an extraordinary happening. He replied that he hadn't, but
he had remembered an 'old salt' telling him of a similar occurrence which
happened in the same area many years before.
As I turned away, he remarked that he was thankful that it had happened in
daylight. In the dark, he felt that surely we would have been demasted.
Over the years I have asked a number of meteorologists about it. None has
ever heard of such an event, and few believed me.
Captain J. Maitland Thompson
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
www.cobweb.com.au/~paisley
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| Document: 990610.htm
Updated: 11 June 1999 |
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