From                                           Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]            snow in Sydney
002 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)          Rain Gauges
003 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Rain in Blackheath
004 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)          Jet stream and upper divergence
005 David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com]              ENSO and Sydney hail
006 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.  Thickness lines
007 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au                    Mid North Coast Obs.
008 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]             Rain Gauge
009 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]             Mid North Coast Obs.
010 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)          Rain Gauge
011 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    New Email Address
012 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]         snow in Sydney
013 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]          snow in Sydney
014 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   snow in Sydney
015 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Not much rain south of Illawarra
016 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]              SE QLD wx

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001

Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1999 07:28:30 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow in Sydney
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Paul...
A SSW change that passed through Sydney around 3-4 pm on 27 July 1986 
dropped the temp to 7 degrees. The showers with the change included some
soft hail - the process of formation is different but naturally, because
of the cold and the soft hail the media claimed "snow".
It was too warm for that.
don White

Paul Graham wrote:
> 
> I remember the time in 1986 (possibly August) when there was a brief
> snowfall through parts of Sydney.  It lasted about 10 minutes but melted
> fairly quickly after settling on the ground.  I'd be interested to know what
> the temperature was at the time since, although it was cold, I don't think
> it was exceptionally cold.  I seem to remember that the cloud was a tall
> cumulus and this may have been a factor.
> - Paul G.
> 
> >From: Don White 
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: Aussie Weather 
> >Subject: aus-wx: snow in Sydney
> >Date: Sun, 27 Jun 1999 17:18:41 +1000
> >
> >Tomorrow is the anniversary of the only measurable snow in Sydney on 28
> >June 1836. In the Colonial Newspaper on the follwoing Thursday the
> >reportincluded the note that snow was several inches deep towards
> >Parramatta. (See my note in tomorrow's Daily Telegraph
> >Don White
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
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002

From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain Gauges
Date: Sun, 27 Jun 1999 21:30:26 GMT
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On Sun, 27 Jun 1999 19:01:03 +1000, Michael Bath
 wrote:

>Peter,
>
>The Nylex 1000 is good, and the BoM will accept readings taken with it.
>Always measure at 9am each day and record amounts to the nearest 0.2mm,
>rounded up. 

Michael and Peter, just two small points.

Firstly, I'd suggest reading to the nearest 0.1mm. The BoM
specification is to read to the nearest 0.2mm, but is the only
national met organisation I'm aware of that does this -- the
international standard is to read to the nearest 0.1mm, and in fact a
rain day is defined as one with >=0.1mm from other than fog or dew. I
can only conclude that the Bureau, when metrication took place, felt
that 0.2mm coincided (almost) with 0.01 of an inch.

Having made that decision, it's easier to avoid a statistical problem
caused by rounding up to the nearest 0.2mm. If you round up every one
of, say, 20 rainfall readings in a month, and, say, half are on the
0.2 and half are in between, you will overestimate the total rain by
10 x 0.1mm = 1mm. Not much, but, following the example,  it could give
you an overestimated annual rainfall of 12mm. If the measuring glass
is graduated to 0.5, then estimating to the nearest 0.1 is quite
possible, and the minor errors in estimation you make should cancel
out over time. If your eyesight and judgement are fantastic, and you
can estimate to the nearest 0.05mm, always round to the *odd* figure
-- so both 12.25mm and 12.35mm would be recorded as 12.3.

Hope this helps.


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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003

Date: Sun, 27 Jun 1999 16:50:11 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain in Blackheath
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Thanks Ben, I've emailed my provider.

Lindsay P.

Ben Munro wrote:
> 
> Lindsay, you need to get your time zone changed. I think that the date/time
> stamp is put on by your isp?? email them about it
> The time zone on your mail is -0700, or western north america.
> 20:44 on the 26th in that time zone doesn't occur for almost another 17 hours.
> 
>

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004

From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Jet stream and upper divergence
Date: Sun, 27 Jun 1999 22:48:54 GMT
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There's been some correspondence on this topic recently.

If you want to learn by observation about the relationship between jet
stream location, vorticity and upper divergence, the 12-hourly satpix
at http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/winds/winds.html
are a great start. They are overlaid with data derived from cloud
movement, and the panels in the bottom two rows show wind shear and
upper divergence.

The wind shear panels show contours for the *difference* in wind speed
between the average high level (150 to 350hPa) flow and the average
low level (700 to 925) flow -- not quite the pure jetstream but a
close approximation. On the upper level divergence charts, the solid
lines represent upper divergence and the dotted lines show upper
convergence. 

Download the two panels (or, preferably, sequences of them), then
toggle between the shear and divergence panels. After a few weeks,
you'll be seeing the relationships between the two. 

They also have some nice explanatory stuff at
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/other/faq_winds.html

-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005

Date: Sun, 27 Jun 1999 16:39:14 -0700 (PDT)
From: David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com]
Subject: aus-wx: ENSO and Sydney hail
To: aussie- weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

On a few occasions we have had some discussion on the list re. the
correlation between SOI and severe thunderstorms in Brisbane and
Sydney. I just noticed that the following reference should be available
now and might be of interest:

"Kuhnel, I., 1998, The use of multifactor Southern Oscillation Index
for the estimation of annual hailstorm frequencies in the
Sydney area, International Journal of Climatology, (in press)".

David 

_________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get your free  at yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com

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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006

Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1999 10:23:34 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Cc: robd at geo.vuw.ac.nz
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Thickness lines
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Laurier Williams wrote on Sat, 26 Jun 1999 07:44:46 GMT:
> 
> On Fri, 25 Jun 1999 22:27:33 +1200, "Ben Tichborne"
>  wrote:
> 
> > Below what line would you normally expect snow to fall
> > to sea-level?...
[snip]
> ...
> Anyway, you lucky Un Zudders now have Rob Davies at MetVUW
> producing snowfall (and accumulated snow) forecasts for you
> at http://www.geo.vuw.ac.nz/~robd/snow.html. The commentary
> at the bottom is very relevant to this discussion.
> 
> BTW, he threatens to produce similar maps for Australia -- maybe
> we should all email him to express our strong support!

Absolutely. However, on the private side of things, I've been
generating predictive models from AVN data for some time now
targeted specifically at Perisher Valley (my club lodge) with 
my only problem now outstanding being a precipitation increase
prediction based upon orographic lifting forcing. This is 
possibly the most difficult parameter to predict as it can
account for up to 400% increase over and above the AVN 
prediction at times and 0% at other times. The models arn't
real good at incorporating local scale topography as Rob
rightly points out but that's where a bit of local knowledge
can add significant value.

Michael Scollay       mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1999 14:33:24 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Mid North Coast Obs.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Howdy all. Wet weekend with falls on both days in the mid teens (yea yeah I know
we didn't get as much as Brisbane....  :-)

However for those that CARE -  WE MADE THE AVERAGE!! WOOhoo

Total rain for the year now is close on 1000mm which is better then last year by
200mm.


One  point that has irked me all weekend - the radar quality for Mid North coast
is  abysmal.  I  noted  on  9  occasions last , Friday & Saturday nights when we
received heavy showers that lasted for 10 - 15mins with return rates between 0.4
-  1.0  mm per min that didn't even show on Radar. What's the use of even having
the  stupid  thing  if  it don't register! Hope the BOM guys are listening. They
need  to  plonk a radar site on top of middle Brother which would give excellent
coverage  between the Williamtown and Coffs Harbour radars and west to Tamworth.
And  its  not  like  we don't get decent action here - I mean Bulahdelah had the
Country's only F5 tornado........


There - that's my gripe.

Paul back at Port.


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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008

From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain Gauge
Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1999 16:03:37 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
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Hi Laurier,

A chance for me to offer a controversial opinion....

I seem to recall from my Engineering days, that one normally assumes 
instrument accuracy to be plus or minus one half the finest graduation on 
the scale.  Therefore, if your rain guage is marked in 0.5mm increments, 
the inherent accuracy is taken to be plus or minus 0.25mm in the markings 
themselves.  Therefore there would seem little point in attempting to 
eyeball it closer than this.  While you may be able to approximate down to 
0.1mm or better by visual inspection - the accuracy of the instrument isn't 
there to support this observation.

Regards,
John.

>snip

Firstly, I'd suggest reading to the nearest 0.1mm. The BoM
specification is to read to the nearest 0.2mm, but is the only
national met organisation I'm aware of that does this -- the
international standard is to read to the nearest 0.1mm, and in fact a
rain day is defined as one with >=0.1mm from other than fog or dew. I
can only conclude that the Bureau, when metrication took place, felt
that 0.2mm coincided (almost) with 0.01 of an inch.

Having made that decision, it's easier to avoid a statistical problem
caused by rounding up to the nearest 0.2mm. If you round up every one
of, say, 20 rainfall readings in a month, and, say, half are on the
0.2 and half are in between, you will overestimate the total rain by
10 x 0.1mm = 1mm. Not much, but, following the example,  it could give
you an overestimated annual rainfall of 12mm. If the measuring glass
is graduated to 0.5, then estimating to the nearest 0.1 is quite
possible, and the minor errors in estimation you make should cancel
out over time. If your eyesight and judgement are fantastic, and you
can estimate to the nearest 0.05mm, always round to the *odd* figure
-- so both 12.25mm and 12.35mm would be recorded as 12.3.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009

From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Mid North Coast Obs.
Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1999 16:12:09 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet E-mail/MAPI - 8.0.0.4211
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That we know about....  
>snip
And  its  not  like  we don't get decent action here - I mean Bulahdelah had the
Country's only F5 tornado........

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010

From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain Gauge
Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1999 08:02:01 GMT
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On Mon, 28 Jun 1999 16:03:37 +1000, John Woodbridge 
wrote:

>Hi Laurier,
>
>A chance for me to offer a controversial opinion....
>
Hi John. I *love* a little controversy -- keeps life on the boil!

>I seem to recall from my Engineering days, that one normally assumes 
>instrument accuracy to be plus or minus one half the finest graduation on 
>the scale.  Therefore, if your rain guage is marked in 0.5mm increments, 
>the inherent accuracy is taken to be plus or minus 0.25mm in the markings 
>themselves.  Therefore there would seem little point in attempting to 
>eyeball it closer than this.  While you may be able to approximate down to 
>0.1mm or better by visual inspection - the accuracy of the instrument isn't 
>there to support this observation.
>
The assumption is that the designers of the instrument learnt the same
rule during *their* engineering days :-)  My Dobbie Brothers
Bureau-standard wet, dry, max and min thermometers are all graduated
to 0.5C, yet are certificated accurate to within 0.05C. And the Bureau
requires them to be read to the nearest 0.1C. 

I think that, regardless of instrument accuracy, what's most important
is to avoid the "round-up" rule. The rule in all scientific areas
where figures are averaged, totalled or otherwise manipulated is to
round to the odd figure. Otherwise you are building in error. The
problem with the Bureau's 0.2mm rule is that there is no odd figure to
round to, and in an area with 150 raindays in a year, the annual total
will be systematically inflated, on average, by 75 x 0.1 = 7.5mm.

If callibration of the gauge suggested it was only accurate to the
nearest 0.25mm, it would be better to record to the nearest 0.5mm, and
round measurements that fall exactly halfway between graduations to
the nearest 0.5 rather than whole mm. Likewise, recording to the
nearest whole millimetre could be preferable in a less accurate gauge,
again rounding to the nearest odd-numbered millimetre in cases where
the gauge reads on a 0.5.

Given the variables that can reduce the accuracy of rainfall
measurement (catch lost to shelter or hail bounce or wind eddies,
shape and quality of gauge, small children with buckets of water,
errant dogs), I think it's important to reduce every controllable
source of error, particularly statistical ones.


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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011

Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1999 18:28:28 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: New Email Address
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

My old ISP has gone bust.  If you need to contact me, please use:

cyclone at flatrate.net.au

Thanks,

Anthony Cornelius
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012

Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1999 19:55:39 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow in Sydney
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I think it might have been July that year..there was snow in parts of
the northern and northwestern suburbs of which Seven Hills (where I
live) was one. I remember seeing a shower moving north along the main
road through the district, that looked like a hail shaft only not as
bright. Getting home shortly afterward it was only 5 degrees, and that
was about 4.30pm. I presume that what I saw was a mix of snow and rain,
but I wasn't close enough to verify.I remember the cumulus clouds
too..billowing icy tops with dark bases.

Paul Graham wrote:
> 
> I remember the time in 1986 (possibly August) when there was a brief
> snowfall through parts of Sydney.  It lasted about 10 minutes but melted
> fairly quickly after settling on the ground.  I'd be interested to know what
> the temperature was at the time since, although it was cold, I don't think
> it was exceptionally cold.  I seem to remember that the cloud was a tall
> cumulus and this may have been a factor.
> - Paul G.
> 
> >From: Don White 
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: Aussie Weather 
> >Subject: aus-wx: snow in Sydney
> >Date: Sun, 27 Jun 1999 17:18:41 +1000
> >
> >Tomorrow is the anniversary of the only measurable snow in Sydney on 28
> >June 1836. In the Colonial Newspaper on the follwoing Thursday the
> >reportincluded the note that snow was several inches deep towards
> >Parramatta. (See my note in tomorrow's Daily Telegraph
> >Don White
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> 
> ______________________________________________________
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013

X-Sender: jimmyd at pop.ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.0
Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1999 20:35:22 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow in Sydney
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Don,

It seemed like what we had here was light sleet that seemed to fall in
flurries. It was very cold that afternoon. Two days later on the Sunday
morning, -5 to -6 as I recall and the heaviest frost I have seen. I recall
you Don talking on the radio suggesting the temperature had dropped rapidly
in the few hours before dawn. The temperature rose 15C - 16C that day to 10C.

Jimmy Deguara


At 07:28 28/06/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Paul...
>A SSW change that passed through Sydney around 3-4 pm on 27 July 1986 
>dropped the temp to 7 degrees. The showers with the change included some
>soft hail - the process of formation is different but naturally, because
>of the cold and the soft hail the media claimed "snow".
>It was too warm for that.
>don White
>
>Paul Graham wrote:
>> 
>> I remember the time in 1986 (possibly August) when there was a brief
>> snowfall through parts of Sydney.  It lasted about 10 minutes but melted
>> fairly quickly after settling on the ground.  I'd be interested to know
what
>> the temperature was at the time since, although it was cold, I don't think
>> it was exceptionally cold.  I seem to remember that the cloud was a tall
>> cumulus and this may have been a factor.
>> - Paul G.
>> 
>> >From: Don White 
>> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>> >To: Aussie Weather 
>> >Subject: aus-wx: snow in Sydney
>> >Date: Sun, 27 Jun 1999 17:18:41 +1000
>> >
>> >Tomorrow is the anniversary of the only measurable snow in Sydney on 28
>> >June 1836. In the Colonial Newspaper on the follwoing Thursday the
>> >reportincluded the note that snow was several inches deep towards
>> >Parramatta. (See my note in tomorrow's Daily Telegraph
>> >Don White
>> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
>> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>> >  message.
>> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>> 
>> ______________________________________________________
>> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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> 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail:  jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath

http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/

Australian Severe Weather Association  home information page

http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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014

From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow in Sydney
Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1999 23:19:03 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I remember this event well in the Illawarra. The temperature peaked at
something like 16C earlier in the day, but a fast moving front with
cold SW winds and an associated cloud band dramatically dropped the
temperature around 1-2pm, with the front the temperature plummeted down to
something like 6C here,
something I have never seen before or since of at that time of afternoon
here.

Snow fell on the Illawarra escarpment down to very low levels, I drove up
Macquarie Pass and the first snow on ground was seen well short of the top
at approx 400-500m, this was an hour after the fall and it must
of fell lower. perhaps 250-300m. Snow flurries were reported from the F6
toll gates and the
top of Mt Kiera.

Despite the cold no snow fell at my home, just cold bitter rain. Some radio
reports did mention snow, but I am always the doubter, 6C just is not cold
enough.

Michael




> I remember the time in 1986 (possibly August) when there was a brief
> snowfall through parts of Sydney.  It lasted about 10 minutes but melted
> fairly quickly after settling on the ground.  I'd be interested to know
what
> the temperature was at the time since, although it was cold, I don't think
> it was exceptionally cold.  I seem to remember that the cloud was a tall
> cumulus and this may have been a factor.
> - Paul G.







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015

From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Not much rain south of Illawarra
Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1999 23:35:40 +1000
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In a repeat of almost the whole of this year so far the Illawarra seems to
be the stop point of rainfall. All weekend I could see blue cloudless sky to
the far south, whilst very light showers fell here. This is not the first
time I have seen this !

The south coast whilst certainly not drought affected is in need of a good
drink.

Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com


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016

Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1999 23:56:07 +1000
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD wx
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hey Ben from Brisbane here..

11:45pm here and i just got woken up by a Cg.. this is the fourth night
in a row i have had thunder with 10-15 rumbles over a few hours each
night.. isn't it JUNE?!?! :) 

BTW i had 37mm here last night, which is pretty ordinary really (but
nice for this time of year).. others scored much better with some falls
up to 100mm in the southern suburbs of Brisbane and plenty of falls
around 40-60 in coastal areas..

As i write this email lightning more frequent and drawing closer with
moderate/heavy rain..
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