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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Friday, 9 July 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] snow this year?
002 Chris Maunder [cmaunder at mail.com] snow this year?
003 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au Possible ECL next week??
004 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Interesting weather
005 "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz] Possible ECL next week??
006 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Interesting weather
007 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Mid North Coast Obs.
008 "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] Interesting weather
009 "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] Last Night..
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001
Date: Thu, 08 Jul 1999 08:52:43 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow this year?
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Thanks Michael and others, as always, your insights are much
appreciated.
Lindsay Pearce
>
>
> >>
> >> Does anyone have any thoughts on the prospects of more snow for the
> >> southern and central tablelands this year? It's been pretty quiet so far
> >> and quite mild too, for us.
> >>
> >> Any thoughts Don, Laurier, others?
> >
> >Ummm, many snow season years have started like this from the
> >records, namely; 62, 63, 65, 66, even 68 had a patch of little
> >snow between June W2 and July W2 etc. probably better to look
> >at the exceptions, since they are fewer, namely; 64 (the best),
> >70, 72, 74, 75, 77, 78, 80, 81, 86, 90 and 95. So it appears
> >to be quite common to get this "blocking high" effect early
> >in the season.
>
> The jet stream has also been extraordinarily fragmented for weeks on
> end now, probably also indicative of a lack of overall circulation
> strength. I think it's this that is making all the models so variable
> and unreliable in their longer term outlooks. Most of the models,
> e.g., have been going for heavy rain in SE Qld late in the week, but
> did a complete about-face this morning.
>
> These hiatuses are common enough in June, with their accompanying
> blocking patterns, but they always break down in the long run as the
> thermal engine gets into gear again. The fun is watching for the event
> that will cause the break -- possibly next week as Michael says.
>
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather Links and News
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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002
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Date: Fri, 09 Jul 1999 08:40:52 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Chris Maunder [cmaunder at mail.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: snow this year?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
It's just strange that we seem to have 1 month rain, 1 month dry, then
next month rain etc. It's been *trying* to rin, but even when we do have
a front cross over it's just this kinda ineffectual damp thing :)
- Chris
At 01:52 9/07/99 , you wrote:
>Thanks Michael and others, as always, your insights are much
>appreciated.
>
>Lindsay Pearce
>>
>>
>> >>
>> >> Does anyone have any thoughts on the prospects of more snow for the
>> >> southern and central tablelands this year? It's been pretty quiet so far
>> >> and quite mild too, for us.
>> >>
>> >> Any thoughts Don, Laurier, others?
>> >
>> >Ummm, many snow season years have started like this from the
>> >records, namely; 62, 63, 65, 66, even 68 had a patch of little
>> >snow between June W2 and July W2 etc. probably better to look
>> >at the exceptions, since they are fewer, namely; 64 (the best),
>> >70, 72, 74, 75, 77, 78, 80, 81, 86, 90 and 95. So it appears
>> >to be quite common to get this "blocking high" effect early
>> >in the season.
>>
>> The jet stream has also been extraordinarily fragmented for weeks on
>> end now, probably also indicative of a lack of overall circulation
>> strength. I think it's this that is making all the models so variable
>> and unreliable in their longer term outlooks. Most of the models,
>> e.g., have been going for heavy rain in SE Qld late in the week, but
>> did a complete about-face this morning.
>>
>> These hiatuses are common enough in June, with their accompanying
>> blocking patterns, but they always break down in the long run as the
>> thermal engine gets into gear again. The fun is watching for the event
>> that will cause the break -- possibly next week as Michael says.
>>
>> --
>> Laurier Williams
>> Australian Weather Links and News
>> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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>> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>> message.
>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
Chris Maunder (Canberra)
http://www.geocities.com/SiliconValley/Haven/2473/
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003
From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au
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Date: Fri, 9 Jul 1999 09:35:09 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Possible ECL next week??
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Hi all,
Just noticed the NGP model for 132 and 144 hrs is going for the development of
an ECL just off Paul M's location. Whether this is yet another fanciful outcome
- we
will have to wait and see.
Very warm in Canberra this morning - currently around 8 degrees - a marked
change on the minus 4's and 5's of the last couple of weeks.
I have the feeling that this winter is starting to slip by without making much
impact.
It is sometime in the next couple of weeks that you start to wonder if the
coldest
period has passed. If so, it will have been a very disappointing season.
I have noticed from the models that the 540 thickness line has tended to stay
well to the south of SE Australia - occasionally well south of 50 degrees
latitude.
Whereas to the east of NZ, cold air has been much further north with 540
getting to near 30 degrees and 528 often getting north of 40 degrees.
This is a seasonal pattern I would like to see change soon.... or if not that
it persists into late spring/summer - I suspect it would be a good pattern for
storms - especially in southern inland NSW.
Patrick
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004
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Date: Fri, 09 Jul 1999 14:23:53 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Interesting weather
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Hi Jimmy here,
Just a quick reminder for those who want to go to the AGM dinner to tell
please. So far about 17 are going and I expect a few more to put their
names down. Come along and have a great time!!
Now getting back to the original purpose of this e-mail.. The weather
around Sydney is getting interesting at the moment. Large cumulus as well
as altostratus probably from an anvil of a cumulonimbus developing off the
coast to the NE. Looking quite unstable and with the amount of cold air
about, I wouldn't be surprised. I also noticed and have discussed with a
few in the last couple of days the amount of mid-level moisture coming down
from Queensland into NSW. This is now right above us and the cold front has
weakened coming across NSW. I believe that we can expect substantial rain
and an ECL to form off the coast over the next several days. Again the band
moving across NSW is tilted NNE-SSW which indicates that a low may be
developing/taking shape. We will see.
Jimmy Deguara
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
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005
From: "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Possible ECL next week??
Date: Fri, 9 Jul 1999 16:39:53 +1200
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> Whereas to the east of NZ, cold air has been much further north with 540
> getting to near 30 degrees and 528 often getting north of 40 degrees.
To the east of NZ, but not always over NZ. We've had plenty of cold
outbreaks so far this winter, but no really polar blasts. (ironically the
only such outbreak so far this year lashed the country way back in
mid-April!) The severe snowstorm in Central Otago last weekend was the
result of warm advection bringing snow to lower levels locally in that area
than would otherwise occur in a similarly cold southeasterly airflow.
However, the cold outbreak which has just affected NZ was probably verging
on a 'polar' blast by definition. I don't know yet how this outbreak has
affected the North Island (Ruapehu fields should have got a decent
dumping), but there was a nasty frost in Christchurch this morning.
Ben Tichborne
Christchurch
NZ
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006
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
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Date: Fri, 9 Jul 1999 14:55:52 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting weather
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Please please.......I hope it happens........would
unreal...........................makes me remember the last major ECL here in
March 1995 when Comboyne had 660mm rain in 48 hours and I had 428mm and we had
decent floods. If it does happen we would be looking at a major flood as there
is still plenty of water lying around.
Paul at Port Macquarie / Mitchells Island,
Mid North Coast NSW
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007
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
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Date: Fri, 9 Jul 1999 15:31:38 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Mid North Coast Obs.
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Raining here now, not real heavy, just consistent.
Bring on the Low.
Paul at Port.
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008
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From: "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting weather
Date: Thu, 08 Jul 1999 23:04:28 PDT
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Hi everyone,
I have to say that it's very mild in Melbourne for this time of the year -
Sydney weather really. The forecast has been for rain for several days but
it hasn't eventuated yet - I hope it stays away for just a bit longer.
- Paul G.
>From: Jimmy Deguara
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Interesting weather
>Date: Fri, 09 Jul 1999 14:23:53 +1000
>
>Hi Jimmy here,
>
>Just a quick reminder for those who want to go to the AGM dinner to tell
>please. So far about 17 are going and I expect a few more to put their
>names down. Come along and have a great time!!
>
>Now getting back to the original purpose of this e-mail.. The weather
>around Sydney is getting interesting at the moment. Large cumulus as well
>as altostratus probably from an anvil of a cumulonimbus developing off the
>coast to the NE. Looking quite unstable and with the amount of cold air
>about, I wouldn't be surprised. I also noticed and have discussed with a
>few in the last couple of days the amount of mid-level moisture coming down
>from Queensland into NSW. This is now right above us and the cold front has
>weakened coming across NSW. I believe that we can expect substantial rain
>and an ECL to form off the coast over the next several days. Again the band
>moving across NSW is tilted NNE-SSW which indicates that a low may be
>developing/taking shape. We will see.
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>---------------
>Jimmy Deguara
>Vice President ASWA
>from Schofields, Sydney
>e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
>homepage with Michael Bath
>
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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009
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From: "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Last Night..
Date: Thu, 08 Jul 1999 23:09:08 PDT
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Hi to Jane, Chris, Blair, Clyve and Debbie,
Nice to meet all of you and I really enjoyed the debate. Perhaps I'd be
controversial to support Plimer but, by the same token, if the issue is
completely ignored then nothing will be done to invest in renewable
energy...So perhaps it's worth supporting Anne-Henderson for that reason
alone...
- Paul G.
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| Document: 990709.htm
Updated: 24 July 1999 |
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