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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Friday, 23 July 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] high Pressure
002 "McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au] High, Snow, etc
003 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. High, Snow, etc
004 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] high Pressure
005 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Major cold outbreak expected for NZ on Monday
006 Jeff Callaghan [j.callaghan at bom.gov.au] 1874 cyclone
007 "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz] Major cold outbreak expected for NZ on Monday
008 "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz] Major cold outbreak expected for NZ on Monday
009 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] game prediction
010 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Chase Report 990604 Thedford, NE
011 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] game prediction
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001
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 1999 08:22:46 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: high Pressure
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God, look at the size of that bloody big High over Southern Australia
again!
Please go away.
Anybody have any insights into further snow/cold front developments
heading our way? Why are these highs so low this year?
Lindsay P.
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002
From: "McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: High, Snow, etc
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 1999 10:08:17 +1000
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Hi All,
Leaving for Falls Creek in less than half an hour.
WWWWWOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!1
Hopefully we get some snow over the next 5 days (looks pretty unlikely for
a dump but maybe a few snow showers if we are lucky).
As for those highs, I heard somewhere that they are so low this year due to
a cold pool or something over NW Australia (or up that way somewhere) which
is pushing these further south and sending all these cold fronts south and
hence the lack of snowfalls and colder weather in the SE. This next high
is forecast to peak at about 1038hPa - pretty bloody strong - and while
this means the probability of snow is relatively low it does make for nice
skiing in beautiful sunshine and light winds. Oh Yeah - and the snowmakers
will be out in force every night.
Anyway - Not coming home until Wednesday night. (2 bottles of vodka and
"big cup night" later)
"Big Cup Night" at Falls Creek is anything with a handle but NO spout can
and will be filled with beer for $3.
Enough.
Gone.
SEE YA LATER.
Andrew McDonald
(MACCA)
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003
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 1999 10:49:47 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: High, Snow, etc
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McDonald wrote:
>
> Hi All,
>
> Leaving for Falls Creek in less than half an hour.
>
> WWWWWOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!1
Leaving for Perisher at 3:47 this afternoon. I know the
resort like the back of my hand and always find a place
to ski out of the crowds. Perisher-Blue is Australia's
largest ski resport bar none and they also got the most
amount of snow in the last week and a half. Looks like
this is "the weekend of the season so far".
According to the long-term models, such as;
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/ecpc/m2s/m2s_ECPC_forecasts.html
not a good outlook at all for the remainder of the season.
On the positive side, the above model has often been
notoriously wrong, but when they persist with above average
temperature forecasts for the Snowy Mountains part of
Australia over such a long period, it often rings true:-(
I've been monitoring this model's output for some time now
by a rough check against reality. Don't take any note of
W10-W13, there seems to be a major trend flaw in the model
that is persistent. Big Note: These are "experimental
forecasts only". Use at your own risk.
[snip]
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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004
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: high Pressure
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 1999 11:21:06 +1000
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Yes bloody huge, right down in the Bight again, really is textbook example
of a Summer weather pattern this morning, which will ensure that July is
well above average rainfall for Brisbane (which suits me just fine coz it
means all my little rainforest trees will ggrrrrooooowwwwwww). The
'Today' show this morning even had it ridging up the QLD coast over the
next 24hrs. GASP has it hanging around for a whole week. Not all that
cold either Anthony, forecast for Ipswich again was 0, but at Mt. Crosby
min only down to 6.5C.
But... Lack of storms is really getting to me - I had to fill up the
spa-bath last night with really hot water so I could create TCu in the
bathroom. Really is fascinating stuff, convection in microcosm. You even
get the occasional very brief vortex. You need to get the room dew point
right to see the development and I find it helps if you can arrange (as I
can) open windows high near the ceiling to provide a cold cross layer...
(reckon it beats throwing a bucket of ice cubes over the backyard to
simulate hail, Anthony).
John.
-----Original Message-----
From: Lindsay [SMTP:writer at lisp.com.au]
Sent: Saturday, 24 July 1999 1:23
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: high Pressure
God, look at the size of that bloody big High over Southern Australia
again!
Please go away.
Anybody have any insights into further snow/cold front developments
heading our way? Why are these highs so low this year?
Lindsay P.
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005
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aus-wx: Major cold outbreak expected for NZ on Monday
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 1999 11:47:03 +1000 (EST)
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All the models that I've seen are now converging towards a major
cold outbreak over New Zealand on Monday, with thicknesses below 524
over much of the South Island (and getting as low as 517 on the
ECMWF model).
The ECMWF prog is particularly spectacular, as it has a 966 hPa low
spinning up just east of the country on Tuesday - although the ECMWF
model does have a history of over-deepening lows in this region. Some
fun and games if it does happen, though...
The NZ MetService site (less than informative at the best of times)
has been down for most of the last 24 hours, so I haven't been able
to get much info out of them. Without having a lot of confidence in
their reliability, I did notice that the CNN site is predicting
maxima on Monday of 1 for Christchurch and Invercargill and 0 for
Dunedin! (YahooWeather is a bit more conservative at 5 and 3
respectively, which seems more realistic).
Given the complete absence of any excitement in this part of the
world we need to clutch at what's on offer elsewhere...
Blair Trewin
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006
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 99 11:46:10 EST
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From: Jeff Callaghan [j.callaghan at bom.gov.au]
Subject: aus-wx: 1874 cyclone
Cc: bronwyn.jones at nt.gov.au, sued at bom.gov.au
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Severe Weather Group and Bronwyn
We do not have this cyclone on our list at present, though there is a
reference in our 1914
publication as follows
25 February 1874 ... The ship Southern Belle encountered a furious gale off
Frazer's Bay
and narrowly missed shipwreck. She was eventually towed into Keppel Bay on 5
March 1874.
Frazers Bay probably I guess is Hervey Bay (next to Fraser Island) unless
anyone knows better.
If anyone has more infolet us know and we can place it on list of TC impacts.
regards Jeff Callaghan
Severe Weather Section
Bureau of Met Brisbane
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007
From: "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Major cold outbreak expected for NZ on Monday
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 1999 20:16:51 +1200
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> All the models that I've seen are now converging towards a major
> cold outbreak over New Zealand on Monday, with thicknesses below 524
> over much of the South Island (and getting as low as 517 on the
> ECMWF model).
This one seems more certain than the previous one that had been forecast
so far this winter and which haven't eventuated. We might even end up with
news headlines like "First snow in living memory". Snow starved Mt Ruapehu
should finally get a decent dumping.
> The ECMWF prog is particularly spectacular, as it has a 966 hPa low
> spinning up just east of the country on Tuesday - although the ECMWF
> model does have a history of over-deepening lows in this region. Some
> fun and games if it does happen, though...
If that's the set of models I saw (under "Other Models" on the Laurier
William's site), the one for Monday look scarily like that for August 27
1992 - ie a major snowstorm scenario.
>
> The NZ MetService site (less than informative at the best of times)
I hope the Howard Government doesn't do to the the BOM what the NZ
Government has done to our MetService.
I did notice that the CNN site is predicting
> maxima on Monday of 1 for Christchurch and Invercargill and 0 for
> Dunedin! (YahooWeather is a bit more conservative at 5 and 3
> respectively, which seems more realistic).
Yahoo also forecast a maximum of only 3 Celsius and snow/sleet for Taupo,
whose official record low maximum (since 1962, when the present site began
recording) I think is about 5 Celsius.
>
> Given the complete absence of any excitement in this part of the
> world we need to clutch at what's on offer elsewhere...
If you can afford to, you might want to fly over. Try Dunedin or
Christchurch if you want snow. Maybe Wellington - head up to the hills.
I'll be away from my computer from Sunday to Wednesday, house-sitting my
parents place near Akaroa (fully exposed to any snowy polar blast) while
they're away in Britain. I'll report back with details on what happens on
Wednesday.
Ben Tichborne
Christchurch
NZ
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008
From: "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Major cold outbreak expected for NZ on Monday
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 1999 20:45:44 +1200
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> This one seems more certain than the previous one that had been
forecast
> so far this winter and which haven't eventuated. We might even end up
with
> news headlines like "First snow in living memory". Snow starved Mt
Ruapehu
> should finally get a decent dumping.
Sorry, I should have said "... the previous ones that had been..."
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009
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Date: Fri, 23 Jul 1999 21:32:03 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: game prediction
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Hi Jimmy here,
I know this is game but it is always a challenge to make a punt in the
weather forecasting business. I am closely monitoring the situation over SE
Qld. I believe this will develop into a trough of low pressure and a
possible low off the coast despite what the models suggest. It will take a
few days though, though I expect rain from this system.
Oh well. Always good to have a go.
Jimmy Deguara
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
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010
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Chase Report 990604 Thedford, NE
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 1999 22:29:32 +1000
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Hi Sam
How's it going, have been working away from home for a couple of days this
week, unfortunately the weather was first class boring, dry west
( offshore ) winds with low humidity and temps in the low 60F's. We had a
east coast low about two weeks ago, but were unlucky in that it moved SE,
some models had it going down the coast before the SE hook across the
Tasman. The low gave falls 200-300mm ( 8-12 in ) over 48 hours on the north
coast in the Coffs Harbour area. It also generated some large waves that
caused some beach erosion.
In regard to the chase below I like you comments on night chasing and
parasitic tornadoes.
I will try to find some info for al this weekend.
Michael
> For anyone interested, I've added text to the Mullen/Thedford,
> Nebraska chase report from June 4, 1999. The URL is:
>
> http://www.k5kj.net/990604.htm
>
> Sam Barricklow
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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011
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: game prediction
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 1999 22:21:49 +1000
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It is not too dissimilar to the situation two weeks ago, if that is the
case the brief joy of the snow lovers on this group would be shorted lived.
Michael
> I know this is game but it is always a challenge to make a punt in the
> weather forecasting business. I am closely monitoring the situation over
SE
> Qld. I believe this will develop into a trough of low pressure and a
> possible low off the coast despite what the models suggest. It will take a
> few days though, though I expect rain from this system.
>
> Oh well. Always good to have a go.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> ---------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Vice President ASWA
> from Schofields, Sydney
> e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
> homepage with Michael Bath
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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| Document: 990723.htm
Updated: 24 July 1999 |
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