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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Tuesday, 27 July 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] Question
002 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] Numbers or Torndoes in Aus
003 "Dr David Jones" [oe] aus-wx high Pressue
004 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Extreme heat in China
005 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] cold in Queensland
006 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Funnel Cloud
007 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Big temperature difference
008 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) NZ Cold snap
009 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] Hamilton Island
010 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Big temperature difference
011 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. aus-wx high Pressue
012 "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au] Hamilton Island
013 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Ham Radio?
014 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] Hamilton Island
015 "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] Ham Radio?
016 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Hamilton Island
017 Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au] Question
018 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] Question
019 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Numbers or Torndoes in Aus
020 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Question
021 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Numbers or Torndoes in Aus
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001
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Date: Mon, 26 Jul 1999 09:46:56 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Question
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I have a question for the list, I saw this very unusual cloud formation
about two weeks ago. Basically i have no idea what to call it! The pic can
be seen at
http://www.upnaway.com/~jra/wierd.jpg
I scanned it alittle crappy so its fast to load.
Some background info, its taken at about 7:30am, the cloud wasnt on the
ground although i know it looks like it in the picture, it was very low
tho, also it extended from the city to about 20k's south and upwards where
it connected to ( or actually was? ) the low Stratas cloud that can be seen
behind it. It lasted untill about 10:30am which is late for fog, it may be
fog but it didnt seem like it to me as it went from just above the ground
to the low/mid levels. Any ideas on what it is??? Ta
Ira Fehlberg
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002
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Date: Mon, 26 Jul 1999 11:17:50 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Numbers or Torndoes in Aus
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Another question I have for the list, I was wondering about a rough figure
for each state in regards to tornadoes per year. I know its never going to
be accurate but we must be able to get some idea of how many by how many
severe storms any area gets? eg: The NSW BOM has 1300 spotters and records
on average 100 severe storms per year. However firgures range from as low
as 40 (88/89) to as high as 155 (92/93) depending on the year. The BOM also
says that Of the total number of severe thunderstorm events in New South
Wales up until the end of 1995, 38% of them had strong winds. Now the BOM
must miss a few storms but how many do people think they would miss? Storms
not naders that is.
Also we know from studies in the USA ( Doswell ) that approx 30% of severe
storms produce tornadoes ( but some have multiple, more confusion ), this
would seem to go along with the 38% figure the BOM use also. So would it be
fair to say that NSW gets figures ranging from 3-5 to as high as 30-40 and
an average of about 30ish? Plus some must surely go un-recorded as well?
So any thoughts on this would be most welcome, also figures on other states
QLD/VIC/SA etc??? Im trying to assemble a "rough" estimate on averages and
since most weather is state specific any imput would be most welcome.
Ta again
Ira Fehlberg
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003
From: "Dr David Jones" [oe]
Organization: Bureau of Meteorology
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 26 Jul 1999 10:52:32 +0000
Subject: aus-wx: aus-wx high Pressue
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> Lindsay Pearce wrote,
>
>What influences are causing such big and strong Highs to remain so
>low on the continent this year?
First I apologise for the length of this post.. but hopefully some
will find it informative and useful.
Lindsay (and others), there are three
possible contributing factors to the anomalously high pressure which
we have experienced over Southern Australia this winter half year.
Namely,
chaotic variability - this is variability generated exclusively by
the non-linear dynamics of the atmosphere, and which is responsible
for most of the day to day variability of weather. This is not unlike
the variability you get in the numbers drawn in lotto. In essence the
atmosphere sees the same general bounding conditions every day but
takes on a very different structure. Academically, this variability
can be seen in simple computer models of the atmosphere in which
every thing is held constant (sun's output, sea ice distribution
etc.), and yet the model atmosphere continues to vary, just as we see
in reality.
internally forced variability - this is variability of the atmosphere
forced by the internal boundary conditions seen by the atmosphere.
The classic example is El Nino, whereby warm sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) in the tropical Pacific disturb the typical sequence of
weather over the entire globe, usually giving droughts to OZ, floods
in California, etc. On longer time scales this may include forcing
due to changes in carbon dioxide concentration.
externally forced variability - this is variability forced by
factors removed from the atmosphere, so for example changes in the
output from the sun.
Of course, just as the atmosphere is fluid, so are the boundaries
between the groupings, so for example an increase in output from
the sun will impact on SSTs etc.
Anyway, we can probably discount 3 as much of a factor, leaving 1 and
2.
To cut to the point, there can be no doubt that internal
random variability has played a significant role, and part of the
tendency for large highs near southern Australia has been nothing
more than bad (or good?) luck. If only a butterfly had flapped a
little harder, we might now be debating the reasons for having so
many lows! To put it more scientifically, you could imagine that we
have a 50% chance of each high we get being more south or more north
than usual. Assuming independence, and expecting that we have 12
major highs cross southern Australia in a winter, there is
only a 23% chance that 6 will be to the north and 6 to the south of
the average position, so infact it is more likely than not that
winter will be abnormal!
This winter, we have probably seen about 100% of highs passing south
of their usual position which suggests that random variability is not
the only cause (with 12 highs this has only a probability of 0.02%).
Part of the explanation lies with the very warm SSTs of the Western
Australia coast. In the tropics and subtropics, anomalously warm SSTs
are usually associated with low level warming and moistening of the
atmosphere, which is countered by adiabatic cooling associated with
rising motion. This in turn leads to low level convergence, and
through the rotation of the earth the generation of low level
cyclonic vorticity (or flow anomalies). This is generally what we
have seen off Perth this winter, with anomalously low pressure or at
least low level cyclonic flow anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean,
and with Perth lying to the east experiencing excessive NW flow (and
very warm WX). Anyway, it gets a little more complicated from here,
but essentially, the generation of cyclonic flow anomalies due to
conservation of vorticity (roughly angular momentum) is associated
with a series of anticyclonic and cyclonic flow anomalies stretching
in a general southeast direction. Theory and practice suggests the
first anticyclonic anomaly will lie near southeast
Australia/Tasman Sea, being the general region of excessively high
pressure this winter. Associated with this preference for
anticyclones near SE OZ will be enhanced trade winds onto the NSW/QLD
coast with enhance rainfall. As a quickie plug for BOM, the seasonal
forecasts for May to July generally forecasted this scenario (for the
skiers, this translated to approximately a 66% chance of a below
average snow season :-( according to a very experimental forecast
method ).
Anyway.. the saga continues... While the above generally fits what we
have seen this year, the trend for anomalously southward placement of
the subtropical ridge during autumn and early winter has become an
almost normal part of Australian weather in the recent decade -
pointing to the issue of climate change. It is interesting to note
that these shifts are being felt, as a drying out of SW WA (leading
to water restrictions), record low inflows to catchments in Victoria
(large parts of Victoria are currently under or facing water
restrictions), and concerns by the QLD racing industry at the number
of race meets cancelled due to wet weather! I won't debate the
reasons for this general pattern of climate change (this is far too
political for me!), but will note they have been associated with a
rapid increase in temperature over Australia since 1950.
David Jones.
________
Dr David Jones ( ___)
( )
Climate Group () )
Bureau of Meteorology ( ) )
Research Centre Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4660 ( )__ )
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4440 (________)_)
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425 .... ..
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au .... ..
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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004
Date: Mon, 26 Jul 1999 15:20:22 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Extreme heat in China
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And what a fascinating place to live that would be. Don't they get well
into the minus range in winter?
Lindsay pearce
Blair Trewin wrote:
>
> I noticed that, if the small print of the paper is to believed,
> Beijing reached 41 on Saturday - this would be a record if it is
> accurate (previous record is 40). It's been a very hot summer there.
> (Their summer temperature regime is normally pretty similar to
> Brisbane's).
>
> According to the NWS web site, they reached 38 yesterday, with
> afternoon dewpoints of 14 - lower than I'd normally expect for the
> Chinese coast in summer. I don't know anything about local rainfall
> anomalies, but would not be surprised if it has been dry in this
> region (although I notice there are problems with flooding of the
> Yangtze again this year).
>
> Blair Trewin
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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005
Date: Mon, 26 Jul 1999 15:17:31 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: cold in Queensland
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Sounds chilly up there. i can remember a time when i was in darwin and
they had a cold snap in winter, it was seventeen degrees or around there
in the evening and they had the heater on!
It's all relative i guess. For us in the Blue Mountains, cold is around
6 degrees or less, mild is say, 7-11, warm = 12-16, Very warm 17-23+ .
Hot? Well we don't get too much of that. :-)
It's funny when the Sydney weather guy says "Bitterly cold in the
mountains today with a max of 7..." when we are outside with t-shirts or
light jumpers at that temp., at least when the sun is out.
Lindsay Pearce
PS: Currently five here, didn't get much above that all day. didn't even
feel that cold today, really. Put me in Brissy though in summer and i'd
melt!
Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>
> Hi Don,
>
> I can confirm that it was DAM cold on Saturday! I only reached a max of
> 14.1C, after a min of 13.2C, most of the day was between 13.4C and 13.8C.
>
> Heaters got a work out :)
>
> Anthony from Brisbane
>
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006
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Funnel Cloud
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 10:31:15 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
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Can we have a URL please....
-----Original Message-----
From: Phil Bagust [SMTP:paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Sent: Monday, 26 July 1999 18:49
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Funnel Cloud
Hi all,
For anyone interested, I just posted the funnel cloud shots I took north of
Adelaide on the 15th of this month off to Michael at 'ASWA central', not
all of them turned out, but a few did. The funnel is very clear.
Hope you enjoy them when they appear.
Phil, from a 'fine and mild one day, fine and mild the next' Adelaide
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
www.cobweb.com.au/~paisley
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007
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Big temperature difference
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 00:48:14 GMT
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On Mon, 26 Jul 1999 16:53:45 +0800, Jacob wrote:
>
>Just looking at the WA 9am and 3pm weather bulletins and noticed a huge
>temperature difference on the south coast in the Eucla division of WA. The
>town of Eyre had a minimum of 1C overnight, by 9am it was up to 17C with
>gusty NW winds, and the maximum up to 3pm was 28C. This happens quite often
>in Spring, but would be pretty rare in July.
>
I'm beginning to wonder about Eyre. If you look through the Australian
daily extremes on my Almanac pages at
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/almanac/almanac.html, it's surprising
how often this location is the hottest or coldest in the country, much
less the state. Its minima, especially, seem extraordinarily low for a
station near the coast. However, although I've often been tempted to
invalidate the reading, there's usually enough support from
surrounding stations to leave it in. It would be a good contender for
the Australian station with highest diurnal temp ranges.
Any comments, Blair?
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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008
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NZ Cold snap
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 00:55:43 GMT
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In the absence of anything interesting in Oz, here's a clipping from
the Invercargill Southland Times this morning.
Please scuse the formatting.
>Polar air, snow chill
> S Island
>
> by Dean Calcott
>
> Chilled polar air is moving over the South
> Island, bringing light snowfalls to the
> Canterbury region, says the MetService.
>
> Temperatures in central Christchurch went
> down to 4deg as the cold snap hit yesterday
> afternoon, bringing flurries of light hail to the
> city.
>
> Mount Somers and the township of Fairlie
> received a light snowfall on Sunday night, and
> light snow was expected down to 300m on
> Banks Peninsula by last night, said MetService
> forecaster Mark Pascoe.
>
> Canterbury ski-fields could expect about 10cm
> of snow over the next two days, he said. The
> cold airflow was not expected to lift much over
> the next couple of days, with the snow level
> rising to 500m in the Canterbury area by
> tonight. By tomorrow it should be getting a little
> warmer, and the snow level would rise to
> 700m, Mr Pascoe said.
>
> The manager of the Christchurch office of
> MetService, Hayward Osborn, said he
> expected temperatures to continue dropping
> today, with very cold southerly winds up to
> 40km an hour around the coast. It was
> probably not cold enough for snow down to
> sea level in Canterbury, Mr Osborn said.
>
> Mount Hutt was the best placed ski-field to
> benefit from any snow, which even in the
> Canterbury high country was not expected to
> be heavy, he said. Farmers involved with
> lambing would be all right as long as they took
> into account the wind-chill factor and made
> sure lambs were kept dry.
>
> Although conditions were expected to be a
> little worse today, he did not expect the effects
> of the cold snap to be serious in Canterbury,
> unlike the effects on Southland. MetService
> forecasters have renewed a heavy-snow
> warning for Southland and Otago, with eastern
> areas expected to be the worst affected.
>
> Part of the northern motorway near Dunedin
> was closed yesterday because of heavy snow,
> as was a road near Mosgiel. Temperatures in
> Queenstown and Gore dropped to 1deg
> yesterday afternoon as the air mass struck.
> Drivers travelling in the lower half of the South
> Island should get an updated forecast before
> leaving, and check road conditions.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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009
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Hamilton Island
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 11:03:24 +1000
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I've had a request from a yachting friend for any information regarding the
weather, tides, currents around Hamilton Island. They are competing in a
yacht race during the last week in August and are interested in any info
that will be of assistance to them.
Does anyone have any URL's you could send me to help in this info gathering
exercise?
Many thanks,
Jane ONeill
Bayswater, Victoria
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010
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Big temperature difference
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 11:19:48 +1000 (EST)
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>
> On Mon, 26 Jul 1999 16:53:45 +0800, Jacob wrote:
>
> >
> >Just looking at the WA 9am and 3pm weather bulletins and noticed a huge
> >temperature difference on the south coast in the Eucla division of WA. The
> >town of Eyre had a minimum of 1C overnight, by 9am it was up to 17C with
> >gusty NW winds, and the maximum up to 3pm was 28C. This happens quite often
> >in Spring, but would be pretty rare in July.
> >
> I'm beginning to wonder about Eyre. If you look through the Australian
> daily extremes on my Almanac pages at
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/almanac/almanac.html, it's surprising
> how often this location is the hottest or coldest in the country, much
> less the state. Its minima, especially, seem extraordinarily low for a
> station near the coast. However, although I've often been tempted to
> invalidate the reading, there's usually enough support from
> surrounding stations to leave it in. It would be a good contender for
> the Australian station with highest diurnal temp ranges.
>
> Any comments, Blair?
This prompted me to do something I've been meaning to do for a long
time, namely look at the Eyre station file.
The site is very close to the coast - probably within 1km as far as I
can tell. From the site photos the screen is over a very sandy surface,
which may make a difference (especially as the sand is white). It
looks to be at roughly the right height above ground (one of my
thoughts was that it might have been too close to the ground), although
there are comments in the station history about problems with drifting
sand in the area. Most critically, it seems to be in a small hollow
and protected from the open ocean by sand dunes, although it's hard
to tell because the topographic map of the area has no contours.
The difference in extreme minima between Eyre and other Nullarbor
sites is the most interesting aspect. The mean minima don't differ
greatly (Eyre is about 1 degree cooler in most months than Eucla and
Mundrabilla) - but the extremes at Eyre seem to be about 5 degrees
lower. This seems to only happen on particular nights. I'd surmise
that a necessary condition for a very cold night at Eyre is that
winds are absolutely calm (or maybe a very slight northerly flow?),
keeping marine air from influencing the site - if the marine air is
kept out then the local topography can start coming into play.
The extremely high maxima aren't so much of a surprise - although the
28 yesterday seems a little high to me (I'll be interested to see the
24-hour maximum). All of the Nullarbor stations are susceptible to
extreme high temperatures in a northerly flow, given the long land
trajectory and lack of topographic barriers. Assuming the Eyre
reading is correct, it was probably the warmest in the state because
of the exact timing of the wind change - the northerlies may not have
kicked in until too late in the day to have the maximum effect at
stations like Eucla and Nullarbor. (The coastal stations have
surprisingly low mean maximum temperatures in summer because of sea
breezes on non-northerly days - Eucla's mean January max of 26 is on
a par with Melbourne - and correspondingly feral frequency
distributions because of the occasional extreme hot days). Cook, in
the SA Nullarbor, has had 34 in July.
Blair Trewin
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011
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 11:29:58 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: aus-wx high Pressue
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Dr David Jones, oe at mailo.vtcif.telecom.com.au, " at BoM.GOV.AU>" wrote:
>
> > Lindsay Pearce wrote,
> >
> >What influences are causing such big and strong Highs to remain so
> >low on the continent this year?
>
> First I apologise for the length of this post.. but hopefully some
> will find it informative and useful.
>
> Lindsay (and others), there are three possible contributing
> factors to the anomalously high pressure which we have
> experienced over Southern Australia this winter half year.
[snip]
Thank you, David, for a most interesting post. I took note of...
> As a quickie plug for BOM, the seasonal forecasts for May to
> July generally forecasted this scenario (for the skiers, this
> translated to approximately a 66% chance of a below average
> snow season :-( according to a very experimental forecast
> method ).
Yes, I saw this prediction. I even saved a copy for my
archive alongside other mob's predictions such as NCEP.
Any hints on where I could get my hands on the "BoM
method"? I would like to take "probabilities" to
"predictions of quantity and when" in the longer term.
[snip]
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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012
From: "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hamilton Island
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 16:34:05 +1000
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Hi Jane,
Have forwarded your request to a yachting acquaintance of mine. Hope he can
offer some advice.
On URL's, don't have all to hand right now, but www.sunstate.com.au is one,
and
www.saltydog.com.au is a second. I'm sure you will find links from these.
Happy hunting,
Bill
Proserpine.
-----Original Message-----
From: Jane ONeill [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Tuesday, 27 July 1999 11:06 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Hamilton Island
>I've had a request from a yachting friend for any information regarding the
>weather, tides, currents around Hamilton Island.
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013
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Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 16:24:34 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ham Radio?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Sam,
I don't actually chase as such more of a close observer, but I do hold a
novice ticket in Ham Radio. My callsign is VK5NAJ, at the moment I only use
2m but hopefully soon I will have 10,15,80m when I get my rig back. Nice to
see another keen Ham on the list.
At 15:13 24/07/99 -0500, you wrote:
>Are there any Aussie storm chasers who are also ham radio operators?
>
>OBTW, how is Michael Thompson? I've sent several e-mails to Michael
>with no response.
>
>Please answer direct to my e-mail address. I unsubscribed during chase
>season and don't have the instructions to re-subscribe.
>
>Sam K5KJ
>
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> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Andrew Wall (VK5NAJ)
15 Elio Drv,
Paralowie 5108,
South Australia.
ph. (08) 82854590
S.A. / N.T. Co-ordinator for the ASWA Inc.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S.A. Lightning Page - http://lightning.virtualave.net (I know it needs
updating)
ASWA Inc. Webpage - http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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014
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 18:01:32 +1000
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hamilton Island
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Jane..
This site may be of some use..
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~tropical/phys.html#weather
Jane ONeill wrote:
>
> I've had a request from a yachting friend for any information regarding the
> weather, tides, currents around Hamilton Island. They are competing in a
> yacht race during the last week in August and are interested in any info
> that will be of assistance to them.
>
> Does anyone have any URL's you could send me to help in this info gathering
> exercise?
>
> Many thanks,
>
> Jane ONeill
> Bayswater, Victoria
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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015
X-Originating-Ip: [210.84.9.244]
From: "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ham Radio?
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 01:41:11 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
My amateur radio call is VK2GDO but I don't have much time to use it. I can
see it would be very useful for storm chasing.
- Paul G.
>From: Andrew Wall
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ham Radio?
>Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 16:24:34 +0930
>
>Hi Sam,
>
>I don't actually chase as such more of a close observer, but I do hold a
>novice ticket in Ham Radio. My callsign is VK5NAJ, at the moment I only use
>2m but hopefully soon I will have 10,15,80m when I get my rig back. Nice to
>see another keen Ham on the list.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>At 15:13 24/07/99 -0500, you wrote:
> >Are there any Aussie storm chasers who are also ham radio operators?
> >
> >OBTW, how is Michael Thompson? I've sent several e-mails to Michael
> >with no response.
> >
> >Please answer direct to my e-mail address. I unsubscribed during chase
> >season and don't have the instructions to re-subscribe.
> >
> >Sam K5KJ
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
>to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>Andrew Wall (VK5NAJ)
>15 Elio Drv,
>Paralowie 5108,
>South Australia.
>
>ph. (08) 82854590
>
>S.A. / N.T. Co-ordinator for the ASWA Inc.
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>S.A. Lightning Page - http://lightning.virtualave.net (I know it needs
>updating)
>ASWA Inc. Webpage - http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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016
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Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 18:41:11 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hamilton Island
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
That person is still looking around??? It was some months ago when he asked
me. I thought I posted it to the list or something..
Jimmy Deguara
At 11:03 27/07/99 +1000, you wrote:
>I've had a request from a yachting friend for any information regarding the
>weather, tides, currents around Hamilton Island. They are competing in a
>yacht race during the last week in August and are interested in any info
>that will be of assistance to them.
>
>Does anyone have any URL's you could send me to help in this info gathering
>exercise?
>
>Many thanks,
>
>Jane ONeill
>Bayswater, Victoria
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
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017
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Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 18:52:51 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmyd at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Question
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Jimmy here,
I have seen this type of activity usually when there has been plenty of
moisture due to rain, and particularly over the Blue Mtns. The last time I
saw this was when a low pressure system passed over and then the cloud mass
cleared leaving this type of cloud over the ranges with northerly winds. To
me, it looks like a combination of mist feeding into cumulus or
stratocumulus as the air rises over the escarpment.
I think I have also seen this when a rain band began to clear attached to a
low pressure system and the low cloud develops as the cooler drier air
condenses along the boundary.....
Does this help??
Jimmy Deguara
At 09:46 26/07/99 +0800, you wrote:
>I have a question for the list, I saw this very unusual cloud formation
>about two weeks ago. Basically i have no idea what to call it! The pic can
>be seen at
>http://www.upnaway.com/~jra/wierd.jpg
>I scanned it alittle crappy so its fast to load.
>
>Some background info, its taken at about 7:30am, the cloud wasnt on the
>ground although i know it looks like it in the picture, it was very low
>tho, also it extended from the city to about 20k's south and upwards where
>it connected to ( or actually was? ) the low Stratas cloud that can be seen
>behind it. It lasted untill about 10:30am which is late for fog, it may be
>fog but it didnt seem like it to me as it went from just above the ground
>to the low/mid levels. Any ideas on what it is??? Ta
>
> Ira Fehlberg
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara
Vice President ASWA
from Schofields, Sydney
e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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018
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Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 05:52:01 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Question
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Ahhhh yes it does! thanks Jimmy, I remember now that this cloud ran
pararell to the escarpment here. The cloud wasnt over the escarpment but
was obvioulsy the air was being lifted over the hills and forming it. There
definaltly seemed to be a boundry feature to it. Also another thing i
remember about this day was that this was associated with an occluded
front. So what would one call such a formation?
Ira Fehlberg
At 18:52 27/07/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Jimmy here,
>
>I have seen this type of activity usually when there has been plenty of
>moisture due to rain, and particularly over the Blue Mtns. The last time I
>saw this was when a low pressure system passed over and then the cloud mass
>cleared leaving this type of cloud over the ranges with northerly winds. To
>me, it looks like a combination of mist feeding into cumulus or
>stratocumulus as the air rises over the escarpment.
>
>I think I have also seen this when a rain band began to clear attached to a
>low pressure system and the low cloud develops as the cooler drier air
>condenses along the boundary.....
>
>Does this help??
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
>
>At 09:46 26/07/99 +0800, you wrote:
>>I have a question for the list, I saw this very unusual cloud formation
>>about two weeks ago. Basically i have no idea what to call it! The pic can
>>be seen at
>>http://www.upnaway.com/~jra/wierd.jpg
>>I scanned it alittle crappy so its fast to load.
>>
>>Some background info, its taken at about 7:30am, the cloud wasnt on the
>>ground although i know it looks like it in the picture, it was very low
>>tho, also it extended from the city to about 20k's south and upwards where
>>it connected to ( or actually was? ) the low Stratas cloud that can be seen
>>behind it. It lasted untill about 10:30am which is late for fog, it may be
>>fog but it didnt seem like it to me as it went from just above the ground
>>to the low/mid levels. Any ideas on what it is??? Ta
>>
>> Ira Fehlberg
>>
>> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>> message.
>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>---------------
>Jimmy Deguara
>Vice President ASWA
>from Schofields, Sydney
>e-mail: jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
>homepage with Michael Bath
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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019
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 20:28:57 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Numbers or Torndoes in Aus
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Ira and all,
I believe that there is far too much ambiguity to give even an 'accurate
approximation' in the numbers of tornadoes in Australia, or even for many of
the states for that matter. I have often been one who likes to put numbers
against this (and I think that I have put a number against this previously) but
there just is not enough information to answer this question with any
meaningful accuracy.
For example, there are many factors that go against tornado reporting in QLD
alone.
First there is the population, the population is extremely sparse, a tornado
could travel through 70%+ of SE QLD, and no one would even notice it as it'd go
through a strip of forest of shrubbery. Even though the damage might be seen,
no one would even think that it was a tornado that did it (except for people
like us) and this would never be reported by members of the 'ordinary public.'
This problem is even further compounded as you move further north/south/west -
and is a problem that dramatically under-estimates the number of tornadoes
reported almost all over Australia.
Secondly - for NE NSW and SE QLD in particular, any supercells that do occur
are generally of HP nature, vs supercells that occur in the plains that are
more frequently LP. A proffessional storm chaser finds it difficult enough to
distinguish a tornado in a rain shaft, let alone a member of the public.
Thirdly - Again, this is for NE NSW and SE QLD (as I don't know enough about
other areas) the topogrophy goes against seeing tornadoes. Land is often very
hilly, and frequently foresty - this is one VERY annoying thing about chasing
in SE QLD and NE NSW, it's hard enough to find an advantage point for
ourselves, and we're looking for one! Let alone some one looking and being in
the right place at the right time.
One could perhaps approximate based on a number of storms, but this again comes
under variability. I do, however believe that there are some tornado producing
systems that do go through NSW and QLD similar to that of the US. For example,
Jan 25 to Feb 1 had a cold pool of air go through northern NSW, and
southern-central QLD - creeping into SE QLD. AVN had a 998hPa surface low
analysis at the height of this. Further figures were, LI's were down to -10,
with large areas of -6 to -8. I calculated CAPE's of 2500-3500, with some
occassional higher ones. The stats on the events were:
Jan 25 - supercell in SE QLD (lasted 3-4hrs+ and had a wall cloud)
Jan 27(?) - Severe hebel storm, a rainspotter reported in with a diagram
showing something descending and rotation, most likely a tornado.
Jan 30 - tornado at Moree, as well as a tornado further south (in the hunter I
think?) as well as a funnel, and 2 rotating circulations...(all in NSW)
Jan 31 - Possible funnel cloud with wall cloud further north.
Very little territory was travelled in...and for the Jan 25 supercell...I noted
a lowering at the rear of the storm (which I thought may have been a wall cloud
at the time) well before we got closer to it - but never saw it again for 15
minutes due to hills and trees.
But, I believe this is a prime example on how little actually gets
reported...much more would have occurred during this event.
Currently, I am going through many of the 1900-1950's records, and hopefully
I'll be able to shed more light on this later down the track. But, I would
have to say that I cannot give you a figure on the number of tornadoes in QLD,
or any other state.
Sorry I couldn't help you directly, but maybe this will assist you indirectly.
Anthony Cornelius
Ira Fehlberg wrote:
> Another question I have for the list, I was wondering about a rough figure
> for each state in regards to tornadoes per year. I know its never going to
> be accurate but we must be able to get some idea of how many by how many
> severe storms any area gets? eg: The NSW BOM has 1300 spotters and records
> on average 100 severe storms per year. However firgures range from as low
> as 40 (88/89) to as high as 155 (92/93) depending on the year. The BOM also
> says that Of the total number of severe thunderstorm events in New South
> Wales up until the end of 1995, 38% of them had strong winds. Now the BOM
> must miss a few storms but how many do people think they would miss? Storms
> not naders that is.
> Also we know from studies in the USA ( Doswell ) that approx 30% of severe
> storms produce tornadoes ( but some have multiple, more confusion ), this
> would seem to go along with the 38% figure the BOM use also. So would it be
> fair to say that NSW gets figures ranging from 3-5 to as high as 30-40 and
> an average of about 30ish? Plus some must surely go un-recorded as well?
>
> So any thoughts on this would be most welcome, also figures on other states
> QLD/VIC/SA etc??? Im trying to assemble a "rough" estimate on averages and
> since most weather is state specific any imput would be most welcome.
>
> Ta again
>
> Ira Fehlberg
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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020
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 10:52:06 +0100
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Question
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Ira Fehlberg wrote:
> Ahhhh yes it does! thanks Jimmy, I remember now that this cloud ran
> pararell to the escarpment here. The cloud wasnt over the escarpment but
> was obvioulsy the air was being lifted over the hills and forming it. There
> definaltly seemed to be a boundry feature to it. Also another thing i
> remember about this day was that this was associated with an occluded
> front. So what would one call such a formation?
Putting in my ha'penny worth; I've seen similar here in the UK when a warm front
has passed over with scud not too dissimilar to this at the warm front boundary,
perhaps not showing so much sign of (forced???) uplift and not so near the
ground! The unusual features may be caused by the moisture content of the rising
air not being uniform.
I'd call it stratus / cumulus fractus, good old scud like Momma used to make....
(:
Les
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021
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 12:51:52 +0100
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Numbers or Torndoes in Aus
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Anthony Cornelius wrote:
> Hi Ira and all,
>
> I believe that there is far too much ambiguity to give even an 'accurate
> approximation' in the numbers of tornadoes in Australia
One thing is for sure, there are more, perhaps considerably more than what are
actually reported (one reason why we're going to Oz rather than the
Plains.........!)
What's the Doppler coverage of Australia like?
Just think of all these wide open uninhabited spaces to spawn all these supercells
and tornadoes, never seen by anyone.........!!
PS Got Storm News in the post today, a good read between callouts (:
Les
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| Document: 990727.htm
Updated: 04 August 1999 |
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