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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Wednesday, 28 July 1999 |
From Subject
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001 "Daniel Weatherhead" [dpw14 at hotmail.com] ASWA Vanage Points Database!!!!........again!!!!!!!!!!!
002 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] Question ta!
003 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] Numbers or Torndoes in Aus
004 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] aus-wx high Pressure
005 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Numbers or Torndoes in Aus
006 "Joanne Walker" [jmwalker at hotmail.com] Extreme heat in China
007 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Snow for Weekend!
008 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Extreme heat in China
009 peter matters [pmatters at eck.net.au] ASWA Vanage Points Database!!!!........again!!!!!!!!!!!
010 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Snow for Weekend!
011 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Snow for Weekend!
012 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Swiss flash flood
013 "Weather Co." [twc at theweather.com.au] Snow for Weekend!
014 "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz] NZ Heavy rain and snow
015 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Snow for Weekend!
016 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. ASWA Autumn Issue of "Storm News"
017 "John Graham" [gorzzz at optusnet.com.au] New Email A.D
018 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Numbers or Torndoes in Aus
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
X-Originating-Ip: [203.108.0.58]
From: "Daniel Weatherhead" [dpw14 at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Vanage Points Database!!!!........again!!!!!!!!!!!
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 00:39:14 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone. Daniel here....
I guess you must be wondering when I will ever shut up.
There has been a good response to the VPD but we can do better. Come on
think of all those spots you have enjoyed watching a belter of a storm.
I have 40 points. That seems alot yes....no!
Just remember the more that is put in, the more valuable tool it will be,
and with the storm season fast approaching, you haven't got much time, and
well neither have I, (uni starts next week:=( )
So if you are sitting on those vantage points, write em up, and get them
into me ASAP.
Remember:
This is how to format your site-quick and easy
Name: (name of the lookout)
Location: (how to basically get there from a main road )
Views: (pretty easy this one)
i.e South West to South
South East to east obstrcucted by trees
Great Views of City, especially when being destroyed in biblical
flood
Pro's (whats good about it)
i.e-Shelter to photgraph the nigh away
Cons (whats bad about it)
i.e- dirt road impasssable in rainy weather
-mangy wild beasts feed on unbeknowing storm chasers
So write them up and get them in, because I will only keep whinging until
you do, and I know those who haven't. So if you don't want a Mc Carthy like
witch-hunt, and public condemnation do your part and get them in.
You can email to the list with subject header
ASWA Vanage Points Database or ASWA VPD--whatever
or email at
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
dann_w at hotmail.com
Take your pick
Thank you for your time
Daniel Weatherhead
Pro's
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002
X-Sender: jra at upnaway.com
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Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 10:23:59 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Question ta!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Interesting, i never really thought of it being scud, but it looked
exactley like what you've described. We dont see many occluded fronts here
so im not that up on em, Id say that the escarpment helped out with the
forcing of the lift, this is probably what gave it its look. The warm/cold
front boundry would have to be exactly in the righ spot for it to happen
again. Thanks Les and Jimmy :)
Ira Fehlberg
>Putting in my ha'penny worth; I've seen similar here in the UK when a
warm front
>has passed over with scud not too dissimilar to this at the warm front
boundary,
>perhaps not showing so much sign of (forced???) uplift and not so near the
>ground! The unusual features may be caused by the moisture content of the
rising
>air not being uniform.
>
>I'd call it stratus / cumulus fractus, good old scud like Momma used to
make....
>(:
>
>Les
>
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003
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Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 10:57:49 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Numbers or Torndoes in Aus
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Thanks Anthony for your reply, your points are valid for all states i
think, i spose the only hope we've got for an apporoximation on event
numbers is a greater network of spotters. The reason I asked was cause i
have a few interviews coming up and just wanted a general figure i could
say. I have a fair idea for WA but for most other states i only have BOM
recorded events and we know how accurate they are! Im also glad to see that
you are taking the time to go through microfilms as well to gain some kind
of idea, keep me posted on what you turn up
Ira Fehlberg
At 20:28 27/07/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Ira and all,
>
>I believe that there is far too much ambiguity to give even an 'accurate
>approximation' in the numbers of tornadoes in Australia, or even for many of
>the states for that matter. I have often been one who likes to put numbers
>against this (and I think that I have put a number against this
previously) but
>there just is not enough information to answer this question with any
>meaningful accuracy.
>
>For example, there are many factors that go against tornado reporting in QLD
>alone.
>
>First there is the population, the population is extremely sparse, a tornado
>could travel through 70%+ of SE QLD, and no one would even notice it as
it'd go
>through a strip of forest of shrubbery. Even though the damage might be
seen,
>no one would even think that it was a tornado that did it (except for people
>like us) and this would never be reported by members of the 'ordinary
public.'
>This problem is even further compounded as you move further
north/south/west -
>and is a problem that dramatically under-estimates the number of tornadoes
>reported almost all over Australia.
>
>Secondly - for NE NSW and SE QLD in particular, any supercells that do occur
>are generally of HP nature, vs supercells that occur in the plains that are
>more frequently LP. A proffessional storm chaser finds it difficult
enough to
>distinguish a tornado in a rain shaft, let alone a member of the public.
>
>Thirdly - Again, this is for NE NSW and SE QLD (as I don't know enough about
>other areas) the topogrophy goes against seeing tornadoes. Land is often
very
>hilly, and frequently foresty - this is one VERY annoying thing about chasing
>in SE QLD and NE NSW, it's hard enough to find an advantage point for
>ourselves, and we're looking for one! Let alone some one looking and
being in
>the right place at the right time.
>
>One could perhaps approximate based on a number of storms, but this again
comes
>under variability. I do, however believe that there are some tornado
producing
>systems that do go through NSW and QLD similar to that of the US. For
example,
>Jan 25 to Feb 1 had a cold pool of air go through northern NSW, and
>southern-central QLD - creeping into SE QLD. AVN had a 998hPa surface low
>analysis at the height of this. Further figures were, LI's were down to -10,
>with large areas of -6 to -8. I calculated CAPE's of 2500-3500, with some
>occassional higher ones. The stats on the events were:
>Jan 25 - supercell in SE QLD (lasted 3-4hrs+ and had a wall cloud)
>Jan 27(?) - Severe hebel storm, a rainspotter reported in with a diagram
>showing something descending and rotation, most likely a tornado.
>Jan 30 - tornado at Moree, as well as a tornado further south (in the
hunter I
>think?) as well as a funnel, and 2 rotating circulations...(all in NSW)
>Jan 31 - Possible funnel cloud with wall cloud further north.
>
>Very little territory was travelled in...and for the Jan 25 supercell...I
noted
>a lowering at the rear of the storm (which I thought may have been a wall
cloud
>at the time) well before we got closer to it - but never saw it again for 15
>minutes due to hills and trees.
>
>But, I believe this is a prime example on how little actually gets
>reported...much more would have occurred during this event.
>
>Currently, I am going through many of the 1900-1950's records, and hopefully
>I'll be able to shed more light on this later down the track. But, I would
>have to say that I cannot give you a figure on the number of tornadoes in
QLD,
>or any other state.
>
>Sorry I couldn't help you directly, but maybe this will assist you
indirectly.
>
>Anthony Cornelius
>
>Ira Fehlberg wrote:
>
>> Another question I have for the list, I was wondering about a rough figure
>> for each state in regards to tornadoes per year. I know its never going to
>> be accurate but we must be able to get some idea of how many by how many
>> severe storms any area gets? eg: The NSW BOM has 1300 spotters and records
>> on average 100 severe storms per year. However firgures range from as low
>> as 40 (88/89) to as high as 155 (92/93) depending on the year. The BOM also
>> says that Of the total number of severe thunderstorm events in New South
>> Wales up until the end of 1995, 38% of them had strong winds. Now the BOM
>> must miss a few storms but how many do people think they would miss? Storms
>> not naders that is.
>> Also we know from studies in the USA ( Doswell ) that approx 30% of severe
>> storms produce tornadoes ( but some have multiple, more confusion ), this
>> would seem to go along with the 38% figure the BOM use also. So would it be
>> fair to say that NSW gets figures ranging from 3-5 to as high as 30-40 and
>> an average of about 30ish? Plus some must surely go un-recorded as well?
>>
>> So any thoughts on this would be most welcome, also figures on other states
>> QLD/VIC/SA etc??? Im trying to assemble a "rough" estimate on averages and
>> since most weather is state specific any imput would be most welcome.
>>
>> Ta again
>>
>> Ira Fehlberg
>>
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004
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 14:23:49 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: aus-wx high Pressure
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Thankyou David for your detailed observations of this winters high
pressure patterns. I for one appreciate it and I am sure others on the
list do too.
Thanks,
Lindsay Pearce.
Dr David Jones wrote:
8-<---------------Big Snip
> Anyway.. the saga continues... While the above generally fits what we
> have seen this year, the trend for anomalously southward placement of
> the subtropical ridge during autumn and early winter has become an
> almost normal part of Australian weather in the recent decade -
> pointing to the issue of climate change. It is interesting to note
> that these shifts are being felt, as a drying out of SW WA (leading
> to water restrictions), record low inflows to catchments in Victoria
> (large parts of Victoria are currently under or facing water
> restrictions), and concerns by the QLD racing industry at the number
> of race meets cancelled due to wet weather! I won't debate the
> reasons for this general pattern of climate change (this is far too
> political for me!), but will note they have been associated with a
> rapid increase in temperature over Australia since 1950.
>
> David Jones.
>
> ________
> Dr David Jones ( ___)
> ( )
> Climate Group () )
> Bureau of Meteorology ( ) )
> Research Centre Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4660 ( )__ )
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4440 (________)_)
> Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425 .... ..
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au .... ..
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005
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Numbers or Torndoes in Aus
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 11:29:50 +1000
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Just to add to this....
I would think that WA would be in a similar position to QLD, given the size
of the state and sparseness of population. It is interesting to observe
how Tornado estimates for the USA have crept up over the years as
population, awareness and monitoring tools have increased. Old
publications have it as few as 60 per year.
Obviously the same will happen in Oz. But I think Anthony, that attempting
to get a handle on it is a good thing we should strive for, and we should
not dismiss it as 'too hard'. Maybe we could come up with a simplistic
model which estimates the possible number by using the actual number
recorded, combined with a bunch of fudge factors relating to area,
thunderstorm density and population density.
John.
>snip
Thanks Anthony for your reply, your points are valid for all states i
think, i spose the only hope we've got for an apporoximation on event
numbers is a greater network of spotters. The reason I asked was cause i
have a few interviews coming up and just wanted a general figure i could
say. I have a fair idea for WA but for most other states i only have BOM
recorded events and we know how accurate they are! Im also glad to see that
you are taking the time to go through microfilms as well to gain some kind
of idea, keep me posted on what you turn up
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006
X-Originating-Ip: [146.118.64.153]
From: "Joanne Walker" [jmwalker at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Extreme heat in China
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 18:29:45 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Guess who'll be in Hong Kong in 2.5 weeks?
Not as bad there but I expect to experience something similar to what Im
used to in January here but with higer humidity
JO form Brisbane
>From: Lindsay
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Extreme heat in China
>Date: Mon, 26 Jul 1999 15:20:22 -0700
>
>And what a fascinating place to live that would be. Don't they get well
>into the minus range in winter?
>
>Lindsay pearce
>
>Blair Trewin wrote:
> >
> > I noticed that, if the small print of the paper is to believed,
> > Beijing reached 41 on Saturday - this would be a record if it is
> > accurate (previous record is 40). It's been a very hot summer there.
> > (Their summer temperature regime is normally pretty similar to
> > Brisbane's).
> >
> > According to the NWS web site, they reached 38 yesterday, with
> > afternoon dewpoints of 14 - lower than I'd normally expect for the
> > Chinese coast in summer. I don't know anything about local rainfall
> > anomalies, but would not be surprised if it has been dry in this
> > region (although I notice there are problems with flooding of the
> > Yangtze again this year).
> >
> > Blair Trewin
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007
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: "AusWx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Snow for Weekend!
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 12:09:55 +1000
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Hi everyone,
In their 11:35 forecasts for SE NSW the BoM has decided that this next
change looks a bit more than it initally did, it seems that snow will be
likely on the Central and Southern Tablelands on Friday night and Saturday.
It's interesting that GASP still doesn't have the 540 thickness line coming
as far north as some of the US modells do. I know who I hope's right!!
Hopefully it continues to develop toward the upper bounds of the forecasts!
Andrew.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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008
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Extreme heat in China
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 12:12:27 +1000 (EST)
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>
> Guess who'll be in Hong Kong in 2.5 weeks?
>
> Not as bad there but I expect to experience something similar to what Im
> used to in January here but with higer humidity
>
> JO form Brisbane
>
Actually, Hong Kong's temperatures haven't been anything out of the
ordinary - China is a big country...(the latitude difference between
Beijing and Hong Kong is on a par with that between Townsville and
Melbourne - which goes a long way to explaining why Beijing's January
mean minimum is ~25 degrees colder than Hong Kong's).
You're right about the higher humidity - I was there last August and
managed to lose 3 kilos of fluid in the space of a 40-minute run!
Darwin or Cairns in the wet is perhaps a better comparison than
Brisbane.
Blair Trewin
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009
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 12:17:57 +1000
From: peter matters [pmatters at eck.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Vanage Points Database!!!!........again!!!!!!!!!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Daniel,
Peter (Didjman) here. For the database, I can give you four
excellent points:
1) Mt.Piper - 360 deg views, 1443ft altitude. Downside, access by
walking
track up mountain.
2) Mt Hickey/Tallarook. 360 deg views off steel fire tower. Fire
tower must be used to see over trees
Altitude 2640ft. Access via dirt road-suitable for all cars-rh
turn (Ennis Rd) off Hume Hwy 11kms north of
Broadford. Look for Mt Hickey signpost on right well into
forest.
3) Camels Hump. Top of Mt Macedon, 360 deg views. Altitude 3316ft
walking track access of Memorial Cross rd on the mountain
4) Pretty Sally Hill. 360deg views,altitude1735ft (has Telstra &
fire twrs).
Access via dirt rd & sealed drive from lh turn off Northern Hwy
(near top of hill north of Wallan township)
Hopes this helps, Peter (Didjman)
Daniel Weatherhead wrote:
> Hi everyone. Daniel here....
>
> I guess you must be wondering when I will ever shut up.
>
> There has been a good response to the VPD but we can do better. Come on
> think of all those spots you have enjoyed watching a belter of a storm.
> I have 40 points. That seems alot yes....no!
> Just remember the more that is put in, the more valuable tool it will be,
> and with the storm season fast approaching, you haven't got much time, and
> well neither have I, (uni starts next week:=( )
> So if you are sitting on those vantage points, write em up, and get them
> into me ASAP.
>
> Remember:
> This is how to format your site-quick and easy
>
> Name: (name of the lookout)
> Location: (how to basically get there from a main road )
> Views: (pretty easy this one)
> i.e South West to South
> South East to east obstrcucted by trees
> Great Views of City, especially when being destroyed in biblical
> flood
>
> Pro's (whats good about it)
> i.e-Shelter to photgraph the nigh away
> Cons (whats bad about it)
> i.e- dirt road impasssable in rainy weather
> -mangy wild beasts feed on unbeknowing storm chasers
>
> So write them up and get them in, because I will only keep whinging until
> you do, and I know those who haven't. So if you don't want a Mc Carthy like
> witch-hunt, and public condemnation do your part and get them in.
>
> You can email to the list with subject header
> ASWA Vanage Points Database or ASWA VPD--whatever
>
> or email at
> weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
> dann_w at hotmail.com
>
> Take your pick
>
> Thank you for your time
>
> Daniel Weatherhead
>
> Pro's
>
> ______________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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010
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 13:09:04 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow for Weekend!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Andrew Miskelly wrote:
>
> Hi everyone,
>
> In their 11:35 forecasts for SE NSW the BoM has decided that
> this next change looks a bit more than it initally did, it
> seems that snow will be likely on the Central and Southern
> Tablelands on Friday night and Saturday. It's interesting
> that GASP still doesn't have the 540 thickness line coming
> as far north as some of the US modells do. I know who I
> hope's right!!
>
> Hopefully it continues to develop toward the upper bounds
> of the forecasts!
I'd like to hope they're right but I'd shoot for snow
starting late Friday night in the Snowy Mts moving northward
toward the Central Tablelands during Saturday. The air before
is quite warm as both AVN and MRF agree, so expect some showers
and sleet beforehand unless some cold miracle happens. I've
also noted that all models have detuned their previous extreme
forecast for this event during the past week. Looking a few
days ago, up to a metre of snow in the Snowy Mountains would
have been possible. Now it's looking less than 0.4m in total.
So don't be surprised if the strength of this system continues
to weaken. Such is the persistence of that nasty blocking
High at the wrong latitude that will follow this front and
bring in onshore winds from the E/SE. Mind you, week 3 of
August last year saw a similar event with an ECL forming
that deluged Wollongong. Perisher saw nearly 1m of snow
fall that came in from those E/SE winds. We'll see:-)
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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011
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow for Weekend!
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 13:22:14 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.71.1712.3
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Yeah, do I remember that!! It caused a tree to blow over on the road in
front of me on the Friday night I was driving home to Taralga, which should
have killed me. I got the ute that I drive back a week later after the
cheapest fix we could have hoped for, I drive it back to Wollongong and
whooshkaaa, the Aug17 floods hit - all the way up to about 2mm under the
dipstick inlet!! I'm still waiting for the third thing to happen!!
Maybe I should hope for another August ECL!!
Andrew.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Wednesday, 28 July 1999 13:09
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow for Weekend!
>Andrew Miskelly wrote:
>>
>> Hi everyone,
>>
>> In their 11:35 forecasts for SE NSW the BoM has decided that
>> this next change looks a bit more than it initally did, it
>> seems that snow will be likely on the Central and Southern
>> Tablelands on Friday night and Saturday. It's interesting
>> that GASP still doesn't have the 540 thickness line coming
>> as far north as some of the US modells do. I know who I
>> hope's right!!
>>
>> Hopefully it continues to develop toward the upper bounds
>> of the forecasts!
>
>I'd like to hope they're right but I'd shoot for snow
>starting late Friday night in the Snowy Mts moving northward
>toward the Central Tablelands during Saturday. The air before
>is quite warm as both AVN and MRF agree, so expect some showers
>and sleet beforehand unless some cold miracle happens. I've
>also noted that all models have detuned their previous extreme
>forecast for this event during the past week. Looking a few
>days ago, up to a metre of snow in the Snowy Mountains would
>have been possible. Now it's looking less than 0.4m in total.
>So don't be surprised if the strength of this system continues
>to weaken. Such is the persistence of that nasty blocking
>High at the wrong latitude that will follow this front and
>bring in onshore winds from the E/SE. Mind you, week 3 of
>August last year saw a similar event with an ECL forming
>that deluged Wollongong. Perisher saw nearly 1m of snow
>fall that came in from those E/SE winds. We'll see:-)
>
>Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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012
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aus-wx: Swiss flash flood
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 14:29:04 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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As many of you will have heard on the news, there has been a major
flash flood in the Swiss Alps with ~18 deaths and numerous other
injuries.
There's some current radar imagery on the Swiss Meteorological
Administration's web site (http://www.sma.ch/) - obviously this
is several hours after the event but there is still quite a lot
of activity in the area. The surface chart (also available at this
site) for 1200 GMT looked like a classic thunderstorm situation for
central Europe - a weak trough on the southern side of a near-stationary
front, and surface dewpoints near 20 south of the trough.
I haven't seen any rainfall figures yet, but hopefully something
might turn up on uk.sci.weather - this is accessible via DejaNews if
you don't have a newsserver which carries it.
(I have ample experience of flash floods in Switzerland. In August
1996 I was involved in a World Cup orienteering race in the south
of the country. The section from the last control to the finish
involved crossing a temporary bridge across an eroded gully - about
20 metres across and 5 metres deep - which was virtually dry before
the start. It began raining heavily about 15 minutes before I finished;
I got across OK, but about 15 minutes later the gully was full of
fast-moving water, mud and boulders up to 1-2 metres across. The
bridge was partially swept away and about a third of the field was
stranded on the far side. I'd estimate the total rainfall from that
event to be 20-40 millimetres in about 30 minutes, but the steepness,
bareness and configuration of the catchment meant that it responded
very quickly indeed).
Blair Trewin
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013
From: "Weather Co." [twc at theweather.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow for Weekend!
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 15:18:46 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Don't particularly like the chances of a good fall of snow with this change
over the weekend. While the air is looks like being cold, the change is
showing signs of being shortlived and too meridional. There's potential for
snow down to low levels but the air is likely to be too dry and stable to
produce quantity. We are telling our clients to expect about 10cm fresh snow
in the resorts on Saturday.
Mark
____________________
The Weather Company
Level 2, 7 West Street
North Sydney 2060
Phone: (02) 9955 7704
Fax: (02) 9955 1536
twc at theweather.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Wednesday, July 28, 1999 1:09 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow for Weekend!
> Andrew Miskelly wrote:
> >
> > Hi everyone,
> >
> > In their 11:35 forecasts for SE NSW the BoM has decided that
> > this next change looks a bit more than it initally did, it
> > seems that snow will be likely on the Central and Southern
> > Tablelands on Friday night and Saturday. It's interesting
> > that GASP still doesn't have the 540 thickness line coming
> > as far north as some of the US modells do. I know who I
> > hope's right!!
> >
> > Hopefully it continues to develop toward the upper bounds
> > of the forecasts!
>
> I'd like to hope they're right but I'd shoot for snow
> starting late Friday night in the Snowy Mts moving northward
> toward the Central Tablelands during Saturday. The air before
> is quite warm as both AVN and MRF agree, so expect some showers
> and sleet beforehand unless some cold miracle happens. I've
> also noted that all models have detuned their previous extreme
> forecast for this event during the past week. Looking a few
> days ago, up to a metre of snow in the Snowy Mountains would
> have been possible. Now it's looking less than 0.4m in total.
> So don't be surprised if the strength of this system continues
> to weaken. Such is the persistence of that nasty blocking
> High at the wrong latitude that will follow this front and
> bring in onshore winds from the E/SE. Mind you, week 3 of
> August last year saw a similar event with an ECL forming
> that deluged Wollongong. Perisher saw nearly 1m of snow
> fall that came in from those E/SE winds. We'll see:-)
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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014
From: "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: NZ Heavy rain and snow
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 17:55:40 +1200
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet Mail 4.70.1161
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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The cold southerly outbreak over NZ has been enhanced by the formation of
a low to the east of the country, prolonging the wintry weather.
Christchurch got an early morning snowstorm on Tuesday, blanketing the
central city with about 3cm and about 12cm on the Port Hills, but heavy
rain soon washed it away. Still wet and unpleasant in the city today. Otago
and Southland also got some significant falls, but not to sea-level. In the
North Island, the hill country of the Wairarapa had the heaviest snow for
some 30 years, while Mt Ruapehu finally got decent falls - 2 separate dumps
of 20 -30cm.
Ben Tichborne
Christchurch
NZ
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015
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 16:08:05 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow for Weekend!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
"Weather Co." wrote:
> ...
> We are telling our clients to expect about 10cm fresh snow
> in the resorts on Saturday.
> Mark
That sounds like I should put my latest predictions on the
record for Perisher Valley;
Time span Precip (mm) Snow (cm) Temp (C)
--------------------------------------------------------
28/07 10:00 to 30/07 10:00 0.0 0.0 n/a
30/07 10:00 to 30/07 16:00 0.9 0.0 +2.3
30/07 16:00 to 30/07 22:00 6.8 0.0 +1.5
30/07 22:00 to 31/07 04:00 5.0 2.0 +0.5
31/07 04:00 to 31/07 10:00 10.5 10.5 -3.0
31/07 10:00 to 31/07 16:00 3.7 3.7 -3.5
31/07 16:00 to 31/07 22:00 1.1 1.1 -3.9
31/07 22:00 to 01/08 04:00 2.5 2.5 -5.0
01/08 04:00 to 01/08 10:00 1.0 1.0 -3.7
01/08 10:00 to 01/08 16:00 0.5 0.5 -3.5
01/08 16:00 to 01/08 22:00 0.5 0.5 -3.2
--------------------------------------------------------
Total for Period 32.5mm 21.8cm
--------------------------------------------------------
If this changes markedly on Friday, I'll produce another
table. Basically, my corrections applied to the AVN/MRF
models today agree reasonably closely with Mark's
prediction for Saturday.
[snip]
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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016
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 17:07:30 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Autumn Issue of "Storm News"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Sorry for the delay in getting the autumn issue of "Storm News"
(SN) published and sent. There was a bit of setting-up for the
first mass publication etc. and a little cash-flow crisis for
the ASWA Treasurer alone. But we got there...Better next time.
Shipments were as follows;
ASWA Members:
NSW - Handed out at last meeting. Remainder sent today.
QLD - Sent to State Rep Wed 30/06.
VIC, SA/NT, WA - Sent to State Rep Fri 23/07.
TAS - Sent directly Fri 23/07.
Int - Sent directly Fri 23/07.
With the exception of QLD, all State Reps will also receive
enough envelopes and address labels. It is intended that SN
hard copies are distributed at the next meeting or by other
personal arrangements. As a final mechanism, use the supplied
envelopes to send by snail. Keep postage receipts for ASWA
reimbursement. QLD-only: keep all cost receipts for envelopes
& postage if that was needed for later ASWA reimbursement.
SN Subscribers only:
All sent today with an invitation to join ASWA Inc. plus
latest ASWA Newsletter and SN itself.
Michael Scollay
mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
Treasurer, ASWA Inc.
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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017
From: "John Graham" [gorzzz at optusnet.com.au]
To: "Terry Graham" [TGRAH at doh.health.nsw.gov.au]
Subject: aus-wx: New Email A.D
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 18:40:46 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All,
I'm changing isp's so my new email A.D is gorzzz at optusnet.com.au
I hope these jokers are better than the last one's !!!!!!!!
See Ya's
John
_________________________________________________________
John Graham
E-mail: gorzzz at optusnet.com.au or gorzzz at yahoo.com
ICQ# 25440353
Snail Mail : P.O.Box 1072
Ballina 2478 N.S.W
Australia
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018
X-Originating-Ip: [210.80.62.129]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Numbers or Torndoes in Aus
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 21:55:12 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Anthony!!
Your list is comprehensive but repetitive!
All three points boil down to "but what if nobody sees them?"
I think a database of recorded severe storms/tornadoes is a valid piece of
information. Nobody can infer where "unseen" storms occur but a hint at
potential "danger" areas has safety and chasing merit.
My 5c worth,
Cheers,
Kev.
>From: Anthony Cornelius
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Numbers or Torndoes in Aus
>Date: Tue, 27 Jul 1999 20:28:57 +1000
>
>Hi Ira and all,
>
>I believe that there is far too much ambiguity to give even an 'accurate
>approximation' in the numbers of tornadoes in Australia, or even for many
>of
>the states for that matter. I have often been one who likes to put numbers
>against this (and I think that I have put a number against this previously)
>but
>there just is not enough information to answer this question with any
>meaningful accuracy.
>
>For example, there are many factors that go against tornado reporting in
>QLD
>alone.
>
>First there is the population, the population is extremely sparse, a
>tornado
>could travel through 70%+ of SE QLD, and no one would even notice it as
>it'd go
>through a strip of forest of shrubbery. Even though the damage might be
>seen,
>no one would even think that it was a tornado that did it (except for
>people
>like us) and this would never be reported by members of the 'ordinary
>public.'
>This problem is even further compounded as you move further
>north/south/west -
>and is a problem that dramatically under-estimates the number of tornadoes
>reported almost all over Australia.
>
>Secondly - for NE NSW and SE QLD in particular, any supercells that do
>occur
>are generally of HP nature, vs supercells that occur in the plains that are
>more frequently LP. A proffessional storm chaser finds it difficult enough
>to
>distinguish a tornado in a rain shaft, let alone a member of the public.
>
>Thirdly - Again, this is for NE NSW and SE QLD (as I don't know enough
>about
>other areas) the topogrophy goes against seeing tornadoes. Land is often
>very
>hilly, and frequently foresty - this is one VERY annoying thing about
>chasing
>in SE QLD and NE NSW, it's hard enough to find an advantage point for
>ourselves, and we're looking for one! Let alone some one looking and being
>in
>the right place at the right time.
>
>One could perhaps approximate based on a number of storms, but this again
>comes
>under variability. I do, however believe that there are some tornado
>producing
>systems that do go through NSW and QLD similar to that of the US. For
>example,
>Jan 25 to Feb 1 had a cold pool of air go through northern NSW, and
>southern-central QLD - creeping into SE QLD. AVN had a 998hPa surface low
>analysis at the height of this. Further figures were, LI's were down to
>-10,
>with large areas of -6 to -8. I calculated CAPE's of 2500-3500, with some
>occassional higher ones. The stats on the events were:
>Jan 25 - supercell in SE QLD (lasted 3-4hrs+ and had a wall cloud)
>Jan 27(?) - Severe hebel storm, a rainspotter reported in with a diagram
>showing something descending and rotation, most likely a tornado.
>Jan 30 - tornado at Moree, as well as a tornado further south (in the
>hunter I
>think?) as well as a funnel, and 2 rotating circulations...(all in NSW)
>Jan 31 - Possible funnel cloud with wall cloud further north.
>
>Very little territory was travelled in...and for the Jan 25 supercell...I
>noted
>a lowering at the rear of the storm (which I thought may have been a wall
>cloud
>at the time) well before we got closer to it - but never saw it again for
>15
>minutes due to hills and trees.
>
>But, I believe this is a prime example on how little actually gets
>reported...much more would have occurred during this event.
>
>Currently, I am going through many of the 1900-1950's records, and
>hopefully
>I'll be able to shed more light on this later down the track. But, I would
>have to say that I cannot give you a figure on the number of tornadoes in
>QLD,
>or any other state.
>
>Sorry I couldn't help you directly, but maybe this will assist you
>indirectly.
>
>Anthony Cornelius
>
>Ira Fehlberg wrote:
>
> > Another question I have for the list, I was wondering about a rough
>figure
> > for each state in regards to tornadoes per year. I know its never going
>to
> > be accurate but we must be able to get some idea of how many by how many
> > severe storms any area gets? eg: The NSW BOM has 1300 spotters and
>records
> > on average 100 severe storms per year. However firgures range from as
>low
> > as 40 (88/89) to as high as 155 (92/93) depending on the year. The BOM
>also
> > says that Of the total number of severe thunderstorm events in New South
> > Wales up until the end of 1995, 38% of them had strong winds. Now the
>BOM
> > must miss a few storms but how many do people think they would miss?
>Storms
> > not naders that is.
> > Also we know from studies in the USA ( Doswell ) that approx 30% of
>severe
> > storms produce tornadoes ( but some have multiple, more confusion ),
>this
> > would seem to go along with the 38% figure the BOM use also. So would it
>be
> > fair to say that NSW gets figures ranging from 3-5 to as high as 30-40
>and
> > an average of about 30ish? Plus some must surely go un-recorded as well?
> >
> > So any thoughts on this would be most welcome, also figures on other
>states
> > QLD/VIC/SA etc??? Im trying to assemble a "rough" estimate on averages
>and
> > since most weather is state specific any imput would be most welcome.
> >
> > Ta again
> >
> > Ira Fehlberg
> >
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> > message.
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______________________________________________________
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| Document: 990728.htm
Updated: 04 August 1999 |
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