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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Tuesday, 10 August 1999 |
From Subject
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001 "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au] Argh!
002 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Snowy Mts 9am Obs - another error?
003 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Potential cold outbreak for SE...
004 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] Snow at the weekend?
005 Stephen H Yeh [steveyeh at dnai.com] solar car team update
006 "Parker, Debbie L" [dlp64129 at GlaxoWellcome.co Physics -101
007 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Physics -101
008 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Snowy Mts 9am Obs - another error?
009 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
010 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Potential cold outbreak for SE...
011 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Potential cold outbreak for SE...
012 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Physics -101
013 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Potential cold outbreak for SE...
014 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Back online
015 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Flood warning issued in Victoria!
016 "Dr David Jones" [oe] rainfall obs from AWS..
017 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. rainfall obs from AWS..
018 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Severe thunderstorm advice - Perth
019 "McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au] Re: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
020 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] snowy Winds.
021 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Physics -101
022 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Snow in NSW
023 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Back online
024 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Snow in NSW
025 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Snow at the weekend?
026 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Re: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
027 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Womens Weeekly Weather Article.
028 Tom Johnstone [Iain.Johnstone at pse.unige.ch] Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
029 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
030 "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] Snow in NSW
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Argh!
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 00:13:13 +1000
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Sorry everyone!
My mail proggy decided to grow a brain and send out the first email which wasn't
finished after I moved it out of the Outbox! I then completed it, and sent it. I
then discovered that the list had received my unfinished email, so thinking this
was the only email the list received, I decided to send the complete one again!
Hence three emails - oops!
Kind of ironic really after complaining about Microsoft, that it's mail program
chucks a wobbly and starts sending out my unfinished email!! Argh, Big Bill is
watching me!
Seeing as though I wasted everyones time, here's another weather tidbit: The
most violent tornado in recorded history (according to this most interesting
book) struck on 18 March 1925, killing 689 people, injuring 1980 others,
destroying four towns, severaly damaging six others and leaving 11,000 homeless
across Missouri, Indiana and Illinois!
(And also kind of wierd that I never open my mouth on this list, and now that I
do... oh well...)
I'll shut up now!
Marty.
Brisbane, Australia
martyp at dynamite.com.au
Images of Canberra: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
Lightning Photos: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
ICQ: 11790565
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002
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snowy Mts 9am Obs - another error?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 9 Aug 1999 14:00:26 +1000 (EST)
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>
> For the snow buffs, check out the Snowy Mts 9am Obs. Note the obs
> error for Thredbo AWS that was also repeated in the 3pm obs from
> yesterday:-)
>
> =====================================================================
> STATION CLOUD(#/8) WDIR WVEL TDRY TDEW TMAX TMIN BAROM PRECIP OBS
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
> Charlotte Pass 8 W 28 -1 2 -3 14 Snow
> Perisher Valley 8 NW 9 -1 -3 7 -3 40 Snow
> Thredbo 8 CALM 1 0 5 0 64 Snow
> Thredbo AWS CALM -3 -4 0 -4 1007 18 Rain
> =====================================================================
>
I can only assume that the software for the AWS is intelligent enough
to report rain as the present weather if more than x mm precipitation
has occurred in the last y hours, but not intelligent enough to check
whether the temperature is below freezing.
I'll follow this up within the Bureau - it's an obvious flaw in the
software (and one I've seen before at other stations, so it's not
unique to Crackenback).
Blair Trewin
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003
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 07:27:50 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Potential cold outbreak for SE...
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I hope the models are right for NSW next weekend and this cold outbreak.
I'm still worried about this next high though and that it might do its
"Blocking" thing again. Anyone got any thoughts on the current prospects
of this cold outbreak, as of tuesday?
Andrew, Laurier and I are desperate!
Lindsay P.
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004
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 08:07:31 +1000
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow at the weekend?
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Hey Patrick, Everyone..
Just thought i might note that the Brisbane Storm Chasers Homepage
(BSCH) will have in excess of 200 forecast animations from models around
the globe.. including 15-20 odd Australian forecast animations.. I know
i have been talking about this website for a while now.. but it will be
on the net before the QLD storm season (Oct 1).. When it is finished you
will be able to find it at it's own URL:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/
re the AWS obs on Mt Crackenback.. I take it BOM dosn't think that it's
worthy of issuing a warning for these winds? I was told the AWS is right
at the top of the summit, but even still.. after reading Michael
Scollay's email, these winds are obviously dangerous to skiers..
Patrick Tobin wrote:
>
> Keith,
>
> There is a really great global satellite animation at:
> http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/cmoll.mpg
>
> Although a large file (1.8mb), you get a weeks
> worth of animation across the whole globe. Very
> good for identifying broad-scale circulation
> patterns and systems like typhoons in Asia that
> had little coverage in Aust but resulted in
> large numbers of deaths and property damage for
> those affected.
>
> It picks up the South African cold outbreak as
> a small low that soon lost its identity. The
> broader scale wave in which it was located in
> all probability would have moved from SA to
> Aust in a much shorter time - check out the
> EC animation at
> http://www.ecmwf.int/html/charts/charts_css.html
> to see the circulation of these larger scale
> loops around the two hemispheres.
>
> Hope that helps,
>
> Patrick
> >
> >I think this might be a re-invigorated version of the cold outbreak that
> >hit South Africa last week...
> >
> >Laurier Williams wrote:
> > >
> > > The US and Aussie global models are predicting a major cold outbreak
> > > across southern Australia, starting with WA on Wed/Thurs, moving to
> > > the east and intensifying over NSW/Vic/Tas on Saturday. There are some
> > > variations in intensity and timing, with NOGAPS the least spectacular,
> > > but both GASP and the MRF have thicknesses below 530 and 850 temps
> > > down around minus 5 well up into NSW on Saturday. More significant is
> > > the MRF prediction of a strong southerly jet at 300hPa to the west of
> > > Tassie on Saturday -- all good polar outbreaks have depth, and this
> > > feature bodes well for a snowy weekend. GASP has been quite consistent
> > > from run to run for the past 3 or 4 runs, too
> > >
> > > At last, something to look forward to!
> > >
> > > --
> > > Laurier Williams
> > > Australian Weather Links and News
> > > http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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>
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005
Date: Mon, 09 Aug 1999 15:20:10 -0700
From: Stephen H Yeh [steveyeh at dnai.com]
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Subject: aus-wx: solar car team update
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MH -- Glad to try the SSU. What's that?
DW -- .. "Free"?? But you get to be a part of the winning team; Not
excitement enough? ;) "Hard to know what they are after" -- basically
we need help during the day, to help predict weather -- both short term
within the next few hours including amount of sunlight per meters
squared which I guess depends on cloud cover and other factors, and over
the next day or few -- which requires a weatherman to read the radar
charts from a moment-to-moment basis.
At least that's what my teammates tell me who've done this before.
Steve Yeh
Solar Motions
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006
From: "Parker, Debbie L" [dlp64129 at GlaxoWellcome.co.uk]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Physics -101
Date: Mon, 9 Aug 1999 23:28:59 +0100
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Jane,
If by 'corrected' wind speed you mean what I understand as 'apparent' wind speed ie. the wind that the anemometer feels on top of the car, then I agree with a)100 b)0 and c) 70.
Regards
Debbie
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Weather Co. [SMTP:twc at theweather.com.au]
> Sent: Monday, August 09, 1999 10:16 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Physics -101
>
> Andrew
> Swap (a) and (b) around and you'd be closer.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Andrew Wall
> To:
> Sent: Monday, August 09, 1999 9:57 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Physics -101
>
>
> >
> > >You are in a car with an anemometer mounted on the roof. You are
> travelling
> > >west at 50kmh.
> > >
> > >What is the corrected wind speed in the following situations?
> > >a) the wind is blowing from the west at 50kmh = 0km/h
> > >b) the wind is blowing from the east at 50kmh = 100km/h
> > >c) the wind is blowing from the north at 50kmh = 70km/h
> >
> > Not sure if this is correct but, only (a) got me..
> >
> > Same applies if you are in an Aircraft flying due north at 50km/h:
> > you have a crosswind of 50km/h you are actually flying around 70km/h or
> you
> > travel 70km in one hour.
> > you have a tail wind of 50km/h you are actually flying at 100km/h or 100km
> > in one hour
> > you have a head wind of 50km/h you are actually flying at 0km/h relative
> to
> > the ground.
> >
> > This is how I came up with the answers, but a practical test would be
> > interesting, but where would I find a very constant wind of 50km/h besides
> > a wind tunnel that is over a couple of Km's long :)
> >
> > good question though
> >
> >
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007
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Physics -101
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 09:06:05 +1000
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Yes indeed, and just to be really picky, 71 would be a better approximation
than 70. (value is SQR 5000 = 70.71...), but practically, the anemometer
would be infuenced by the windstream effects of the air moving over the car
surface, thus the placement of the instrument would be rather critical.
Probably greater than 10%, thus could not be ignored.
John.
>snip
Andrew
Swap (a) and (b) around and you'd be closer.
>
> >You are in a car with an anemometer mounted on the roof. You are
travelling
> >west at 50kmh.
> >
> >What is the corrected wind speed in the following situations?
> >a) the wind is blowing from the west at 50kmh = 0km/h
> >b) the wind is blowing from the east at 50kmh = 100km/h
> >c) the wind is blowing from the north at 50kmh = 70km/h
>
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008
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snowy Mts 9am Obs - another error?
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 09:47:15 +1000
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Is there not the possibility that it could have been freezing rain? I know
that that was unlikely in these particular circumstances (seeing as it was
snowing everywhere else) but I'm sure it happens occasionally..
Andrew
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
-----Original Message-----
>From: Blair Trewin
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Date: Tuesday, 10 August 1999 7:43
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snowy Mts 9am Obs - another error?
>>
>> For the snow buffs, check out the Snowy Mts 9am Obs. Note the obs
>> error for Thredbo AWS that was also repeated in the 3pm obs from
>> yesterday:-)
>>
>> =====================================================================
>> STATION CLOUD(#/8) WDIR WVEL TDRY TDEW TMAX TMIN BAROM PRECIP OBS
>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
>> Charlotte Pass 8 W 28 -1 2 -3 14 Snow
>> Perisher Valley 8 NW 9 -1 -3 7 -3 40 Snow
>> Thredbo 8 CALM 1 0 5 0 64 Snow
>> Thredbo AWS CALM -3 -4 0 -4 1007 18 Rain
>> =====================================================================
>>
>I can only assume that the software for the AWS is intelligent enough
>to report rain as the present weather if more than x mm precipitation
>has occurred in the last y hours, but not intelligent enough to check
>whether the temperature is below freezing.
>
>I'll follow this up within the Bureau - it's an obvious flaw in the
>software (and one I've seen before at other stations, so it's not
>unique to Crackenback).
>
>Blair Trewin
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>
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009
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 09:50:27 +1000
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Michael,
I too saw the snow clouds - nice little anvils and all - and thought the
same thing, it seemed really warm. Maybe it was the same effect as they have
in the swiss alps, what's it called again? As the air descends it gets
warmer, but very much so over there - it's a big concern with avalanches and
what not...
Andrew.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Thompson [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Monday, 9 August 1999 21:46
Subject: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>Mildest morning in a few weeks, or so it felt on the pushbike this morning.
>However there was snow clouds to the west, albeit at moderate altitude, so
>real snow line was perhaps well over 1200m.
>
>This afternoon some Cb to the east and a nice wintery looking cell to the
>south.
>
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://thunder.simplenet.com
>
>
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010
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Potential cold outbreak for SE...
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 10:05:48 +1000 (EST)
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Both GASP and the UKMO model, especially the former, look highly
promising for a decent cold outbreak in Victoria on Friday. GASP
has thicknesses over Melbourne of around 527 on Friday night (and
sub-536 for 72 hours); UKMO has around 530.
On the basis of that snow to 500 metres or so would seem a distinct
possibility.
Blair Trewin
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011
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Potential cold outbreak for SE...
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 10:13:41 +1000
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Yup, GASP has a pretty exceptional situation lined up, we'll see what the US
Models come up with tonight - thay have it looking good so far. As it gets a
bit closer the BoM is starting to prick it's ears up with snow for the
ranges noted in the latest forecast policy for Friday-Saturday.
The good thing is that the 10 day MRF which has been fairly good in
predicting this little event - if it happens - has another one just as good
lined up for the following weekend, maybe, just maybe winter's on it's way!
Damn right I'm hangin out Lindsay!!
Andrew.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
-----Original Message-----
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Tuesday, 10 August 1999 10:07
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Potential cold outbreak for SE...
>Both GASP and the UKMO model, especially the former, look highly
>promising for a decent cold outbreak in Victoria on Friday. GASP
>has thicknesses over Melbourne of around 527 on Friday night (and
>sub-536 for 72 hours); UKMO has around 530.
>
>On the basis of that snow to 500 metres or so would seem a distinct
>possibility.
>
>Blair Trewin
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>
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012
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 10:11:56 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Physics -101
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Jane ONeill wrote:
>
> Ok, my physics is incredibly lacking as you are about to
> find out.......question:
>
> You are in a car with an anemometer mounted on the roof.
> You are travelling west at 50kmh.
[snip]
I'm just glad that our humble police force don't use such
techniques to judge the speed of their car in relation
to the speed of vehicles that they "ping":-)
The answers in this thread got there in the end. May I
recommend that we consult the book by Schaum called
"Vector Analysis" before trying to work out the real
answers once the shape of the vehicle and position of
the anemometer are known:-) There's a wee bit more
theory yet to come...
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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013
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Potential cold outbreak for SE...
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 10:16:57 +1000 (EST)
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>
> Yup, GASP has a pretty exceptional situation lined up, we'll see what the US
> Models come up with tonight - thay have it looking good so far. As it gets a
> bit closer the BoM is starting to prick it's ears up with snow for the
> ranges noted in the latest forecast policy for Friday-Saturday.
>
> The good thing is that the 10 day MRF which has been fairly good in
> predicting this little event - if it happens - has another one just as good
> lined up for the following weekend, maybe, just maybe winter's on it's way!
GASP day 8 has WA being clobbered (again) next Wednesday.
(WA could see some interesting action today and tomorrow - the
thicknesses are forecast to get down around 532 - cold enough for snow
on the Stirling Ranges, perhaps?)
Blair Trewin
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014
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 10:35:59 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
> Hi Jimmy here,
>
> If you thought you could get rid of me then think again.
>
> Why was I offline? Well I tried to run a refreshed
> windows 95 on my computer and yes I couldn't get back on
> the internet.... So don't refresh your computer by running
> win 95 over it unless it is absolutely essential...
This is a serious reply:-)
"Delete everything and reinstall often..."
At least that is needed for Win95 unless you are a registry
editor guru and have noted every configuration parameter that
you need preserved. Don't know about Win98/2000/NT but the
Microsoft Eggspurts tell me that any major patch to the
networking drivers usually trashes it's configuration as
well. Nasty piece of work IMHO...
I got around the Win95 update problem by having at least
two "virtual computers". That is, you partition your
disk(s) such that you can boot from either partition.
You might say that the old "C:" becomes "D:" for the
new version to operate from new "C:" which was old "D:".
Get the drift? Works well...You install everything from
scratch on the new "C:" and look for the parameters in
the networking department that differ by booting back
off the old version by reconfiguring "C:" to "D:" etc.
Found I had to reinstall everything in the right order
also, so keep those CD's handy and ensure that for the
non-fussy stuff which will happily install and reinstall
onto an "F:" drive, put it there instead of "C:" or "D:"
Make sure that the "setup.exe" for each app is also
located with the installed versions. Sometimes they
leave that on the CD and not copy it across making
reinstall life extremely difficult.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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015
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aus-wx: Flood warning issued in Victoria!
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 11:25:29 +1000 (EST)
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There is actually a flood warning in effect in Victoria at present!
(a minor flood warning for Seven Creeks at Euroa, a stream which
doesn't usually need much encouragement to flood, and this is no
exception).
The latest EC run has now come through - not quite as exciting for
Victoria as GASP (lowest Melbourne thickness about 530), but much
better for NSW. The 536 line reaches to the Queensland border on
Saturday, although the curvature is anticyclonic which may keep a
lid on the amount of precipitation (could be some heavy frost later,
too).
Blair Trewin
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016
From: "Dr David Jones" [oe]
Organization: Bureau of Meteorology
To: aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 08:47:49 +0000
Mime-Version: 1.0
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Subject: aus-wx: rainfall obs from AWS..
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>For the snow buffs, check out the Snowy Mts 9am Obs. Note the obs
>error for Thredbo AWS that was also repeated in the 3pm obs from
>yesterday:-)
Michael and others.... it is probably unfair to classify the AWS obs
of rainfall when the temperature is below zero as errors because
these represent a pragmatic solution to the lack of observers.
Ideally, these should be listed as "precipitation" but to the best of
my knowledge the coding system for present weather (used by most if
not all national weather services) does not provide for the listing of
precipitation without regard to type.
Sure, it would be possible to substitute all obs of precipitation and
T<0 (or 1?) as snow, but this would be wrong many times also, because
such obs occur quite frequently under conditions of fog (or
rain/hail) - could you imagine the excitement observations of "snow"
at Renmark, for example, would generate! This also ignore the fact
that the temperature at which snow falls is critically dependent on
the humidity. As a rough guide, snow can occur upto about 1C in near
saturate air, and in drier air (RH -relative humidity <96%) upto a
temperature given by T=(96-RH)/7.3 - (this is a least square
empirical fit, based on a very interesting series of studies carried
out in Japan in the early 80's) so if RH~50% snow can fall upto 6C
(such an ob, of course, would be exceptionally rare, after all 50% RH
and precipitation does not occur very often). You could map the RH
values in Td or Tw obs.. but I guess as a fairly general rule if the
Tw is 0 (or Td if T-Td~0) or less then precipitation will likely be
snow. An alternative would be to look on the snowcams at
http://www.ski.com.au!
Cheers,
David.
________
Dr David Jones ( ___)
( )
Climate Group () )
Bureau of Meteorology ( ) )
Research Centre Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4660 ( )__ )
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4440 (________)_)
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425 .... ..
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au .... ..
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017
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 13:13:33 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rainfall obs from AWS..
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Dr David Jones wrote:
>
> >For the snow buffs, check out the Snowy Mts 9am Obs. Note the obs
> >error for Thredbo AWS that was also repeated in the 3pm obs from
> >yesterday:-)
>
> Michael and others.... it is probably unfair to classify the AWS obs
> of rainfall when the temperature is below zero as errors because
> these represent a pragmatic solution to the lack of observers...
[snip]
David...Thanks for the formulae. I always wondered about that
phenomena of snow falling above freezing point provided that
it started out that way, of course.
I might just have a solution for the AWS "Obs". Consider
this idea... Given that the measurement of snowfall relies
on melting the stuff to liquid, then if it were possible to
work out the weight of precipitation in the receptical i.e
Weight (delta) = Weight (measured) - Weight (Receptical)
Then it follows that if ice were present that hasn't
yet melted, then the Weight (delta) might be just a
little bit more than if the precipitation was just liquid.
Further, if it were possible to vary the heat input in an
effort to reduce the Weight (delta) to zero, then that
heat input would be directly proportional to the amount
of heat (electric current) needed to melt ice/snow in the
Receptical.
Wullah! Me thinks that might work to give a legitimate
AWS obs of precipitation type, but, one can never beat
a real human observer, provided that they're not out
overly enjoying that stuff that we're trying to
measure:-)
P.S. There are lots of suitable sensors around to measure
such weight and provide variable power drives etc.
P.P.S. The "hot-wire" technique is used to measure air
mass for today's engine management systems where the
amount of hot-wire cooling (electric current supplied)
is directly proportional to the mass of the air including
humidity. This might also be adaptable to differentiating
between rain/snow/ice etc.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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018
X-Sender: jacob at iinet.net.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.5 (32)
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 15:00:59 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Severe thunderstorm advice - Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
IDW10W00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
PRIORITY
FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
Issued at 2:40 pm WST on Tuesday, 10 August 1999
People in the Lower West and Southwest Districts including the Perth
Metropolitan area, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton are advised that there is a
risk of severe thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening with the
passage of a cold front across the region.
Storms may be accompanied by hail, flash flooding and strong winds that could
result in damage to property.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should keep a lookout for
thunderstorms and if storms approach secure loose items, move vehicles under
cover, then stay indoors until the storms have passed. Driving conditions
may be
hazardous.
This Thunderstorm Advice will be updated at 5:30 pm.
Jacob
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019
From: "McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 17:01:42 +1000
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Hi All,
Just thought i'd chuck in my two cents worth in relation to the wind at Mt
Crakenback and also regarding this weekends cold outbreak and last weekends
snowfalls.
As you've all read - Mt Crackenback recieved a gust of 120km/h earlier in
the week. I also noted that Mt Buller and Mt Hotham both recorded gusts in
excess of 100km/h (108km/h and 120km/h respectively if i remember
correctly) earlier this week. There is certainly no doubt that winds of
this speed occurred. There was the question as to whether the BoM should
issue warnings for winds such as this. I think you will find that a Gale
Warning would've been issued. Even so.....warnings issued in metro areas
may possibly be issued for different reasons to those issued in alpine
areas. I think (personal opinion/thoughts) that warnings issued in metro
areas, for example a gale warning, are issued in order to warn people that
winds are strong enough to cause damage to houses and significant damage to
trees. In alpine areas, winds of this level/category/speed are generally
expected by not only those who build and live in the houses/lodges but also
expected by the trees (if this is possible). The houses are built to
withstand such winds and trees have, over time, developed mechanisms to
prevent themselves from being damaged by winds of such force (as they are
exposed to them regularly). Only once have I seen trees in alpine areas
damaged by winds and that was in 1998 at Mt Baw Baw in Victoria's east. A
gale warning was current that night and the winds was blowing easily in
excess of 100km/h at times while I was outside. I woke up the next morning
to find 1 in 3 trees snapped off 6 feet above the ground. We are talking
trees that would've been there for nearly 20 years. I don't know exactly
what speed the wind reached that night but I know it was pretty bloody
strong. I have no idea what I was going to say now.....OH YEAH - I think
that the warnings issued in alpine areas are bascially issued only to let
people know of the winds which could be expected whereas in a metro area a
warning is issued to warn people of imending danger which could accompany
strong winds.
This coming weekend seems to be shaping up pretty well for some decent snow
falls. MRF, GASP and NGP all have varying degrees of intensity of the cold
outbreak with thickness forecast as low at 528 friday night (i think). The
BoM seems to think it won't be quite as cold as the models are making out
but Idon't know why. Last time I checked - the worst outlook (as in the
weakest) was for thickness getting down to 535 over Melbourne. Personally
I think this may drop the temperature slightly below 14C as they have
forecast. The models indicated two cold fronts coming through - one
thursday and another, stronger one friday. The 540 line is basically
sitting along the line fo the first cold front and the 530 line is sitting
back a bit on the edge of the second front. If all remains as promising as
it is now, there should be significant snowfalls right across the Victorian
Alps and - YES - A fair way up the NSW Alps as well as the cold air
stretches northwards a significant distance. Personally I believe there
will be falls of up to 50cm at Falls Creek and Mt Hotham, 35-40cm at Mt
Buller and up to 25cm at the lower Victorian resorts such as Lake Mountain
and Mt Baw Baw. If the thickness does get down near 530 I think we could
expect the snowline to drop pretty low - maybe down to 600m on friday
night. Hope this makes a few people happy!!!!
I am heading back up to Falls Creek for the last weekend in August for
several reasons. One of them is to ski. Last weekend's snowfalls and more
forecast this weekend will hopefully ensure great skiing for me. For those
who don't know figures, last weekends snowfalls resulted in 40cm at Mt
Hotham and 30cm at Falls Creek. (they were the figures yesterday but they
may've had a little more last night and today)
Enough.
Andrew McDonald.
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020
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 17:40:46 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: snowy Winds.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Thredbo's gusts of 120 km/hr at the week end occurred at a time when the
Bureau had a land gale warning current for that region.
What more can they do ?
Don White
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021
X-Sender: astroman at chariot.net.au
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Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 17:13:58 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Physics -101
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Thanks for the corrections all, I realised I made a mistake last night when
I was in bed and could not be bothered, to get up and change it :)
Thanks again, hope Jane finds the answers she needs. Or does she already
know the answer and is testing us hmmm..
Good one Jane, I like to get the brain pulsing now and then..
At 10:11 10/08/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Jane ONeill wrote:
>>
>> Ok, my physics is incredibly lacking as you are about to
>> find out.......question:
>>
>> You are in a car with an anemometer mounted on the roof.
>> You are travelling west at 50kmh.
>[snip]
>
>I'm just glad that our humble police force don't use such
>techniques to judge the speed of their car in relation
>to the speed of vehicles that they "ping":-)
>
>The answers in this thread got there in the end. May I
>recommend that we consult the book by Schaum called
>"Vector Analysis" before trying to work out the real
>answers once the shape of the vehicle and position of
>the anemometer are known:-) There's a wee bit more
>theory yet to come...
>
>Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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022
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Snow in NSW
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 07:51:59 GMT
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The NSW BoM now has snow in its forecasts for Fri and Sat. "Rain and
possible snowfalls" for the Central/Southern Tablelands for Fri,
"Showers and snowfalls" for Sat, and "possible snowfalls" for the N
Tablelands, Central and South West Slopes on Sat.
The notes on the weather talk of possible falls down to 800m on the S
and C Tablelands, and the progs all support that, but I think the
timing of the rainband, the arrival of the cold air, and the
individual troughs and areas of convergence around the system will be
critical in deciding where the snow falls. It'll be an interesting one
to watch in real time.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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023
X-Originating-Ip: [210.80.62.129]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Back online
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 18:00:33 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi every1,
Hmmnnn...sure does make the Mac OS sound complicated....
Kevin. :))
>From: Michael Scollay
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Back online
>Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 10:35:59 +1000
>
>Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> >
> > Hi Jimmy here,
> >
> > If you thought you could get rid of me then think again.
> >
> > Why was I offline? Well I tried to run a refreshed
> > windows 95 on my computer and yes I couldn't get back on
> > the internet.... So don't refresh your computer by running
> > win 95 over it unless it is absolutely essential...
>
>This is a serious reply:-)
>
>"Delete everything and reinstall often..."
>
>At least that is needed for Win95 unless you are a registry
>editor guru and have noted every configuration parameter that
>you need preserved. Don't know about Win98/2000/NT but the
>Microsoft Eggspurts tell me that any major patch to the
>networking drivers usually trashes it's configuration as
>well. Nasty piece of work IMHO...
>
>I got around the Win95 update problem by having at least
>two "virtual computers". That is, you partition your
>disk(s) such that you can boot from either partition.
>You might say that the old "C:" becomes "D:" for the
>new version to operate from new "C:" which was old "D:".
>Get the drift? Works well...You install everything from
>scratch on the new "C:" and look for the parameters in
>the networking department that differ by booting back
>off the old version by reconfiguring "C:" to "D:" etc.
>
>Found I had to reinstall everything in the right order
>also, so keep those CD's handy and ensure that for the
>non-fussy stuff which will happily install and reinstall
>onto an "F:" drive, put it there instead of "C:" or "D:"
>Make sure that the "setup.exe" for each app is also
>located with the installed versions. Sometimes they
>leave that on the CD and not copy it across making
>reinstall life extremely difficult.
>
>Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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024
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 18:41:14 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow in NSW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
God, I hope so Laurier. It'd be good fun. I've got the camera ready to
shoot off to Oberon if I get the chance or even stay here if it is good
enough.
Laurier Williams wrote:
>
> The NSW BoM now has snow in its forecasts for Fri and Sat. "Rain and
> possible snowfalls" for the Central/Southern Tablelands for Fri,
> "Showers and snowfalls" for Sat, and "possible snowfalls" for the N
> Tablelands, Central and South West Slopes on Sat.
>
> The notes on the weather talk of possible falls down to 800m on the S
> and C Tablelands, and the progs all support that, but I think the
> timing of the rainband, the arrival of the cold air, and the
> individual troughs and areas of convergence around the system will be
> critical in deciding where the snow falls. It'll be an interesting one
> to watch in real time.
>
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather Links and News
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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025
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 08:14:18 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow at the weekend?
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Me too Michael,
I'll manage whatever comes my way too. Might even get another good snow
chase story from Oberon! -5 temps at 850hpa? That could be pretty chilly
for here and especially Oberon. Oberon area could get some nice dry snow
then...here's hoping. I'll have to make sure the the '78 Corona is
raring to go, they call such a car, "The Writer's Mercedes".
Lindsay P.
>
> That figures...Just when I'm going to Bullocks Flat with no chains
> for the first time since 1979. I used to own a car (Alfa) with a
> lim-slip-diff that, with chains, could plough through about 30cm
> of snow on the road. Now I have one of these Holden things (leased
> through work) with no chains so "Murphy" says I will get caught
> out:-) Now if I buy a set of chains, this cold outbreak will
> disappear. Right? Seriously, I hope so...bring on on snow!...I'll
> manage whatever happens:-)
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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026
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 19:46:40 +1000
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If you are talking about the BOM forecasts ( not GASP model ) then I see
their logic, you will find that the 3-4 day ahead forecasts are very
conservative, and so they should be. You will probably find that they know
very well about the potential situation and will refine the forecasts the
closer we get. Strange as it seems it is one area in which I agree with what
they do.
Michael
> outbreak with thickness forecast as low at 528 friday night (i think).
The
> BoM seems to think it won't be quite as cold as the models are making out
> but Idon't know why. Last time I checked - the worst outlook (as in the
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027
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Womens Weeekly Weather Article.
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 20:04:04 +1000
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The June 1999 Womens Weekly had a weather article titled " What Next", it
would have done nostrodamis proud. What little gems did the article contain.
"...Exmouth on the far north coast of Western Australia is rebuilding after
a hurricane that nearly blew it off the map"
Last atlas I looked at had Wyndham on the far north coast and Exmouth on the
NW coast. The word Hurricane kind of says where this article is coming from.
"....Brisbane they're tidying up after being drenched and pelted in one of
the worst storms in its history"
These worst storms in history tend to strike Brisbane frequently don't they.
How about we get Cyclone Wanda back for a rethink.
" ..while other towns from Gympie in Queensland to Bairnsdale in Victoria
are
still suffering the affects of some of the worst floods in history"
and much of the rest of Victoria is well down on rainfall.
" Oklahoma City was leveled by the worst twisters in history "
This one takes the cake, if the city was leveled the death toll would have
been tens of thousands, we all know that a tornado or even several cannot
level an entire city. I am sure they have been far worst tornadoes too.
Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com
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028
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 08:58:30 +0200
From: Tom Johnstone [Iain.Johnstone at pse.unige.ch]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
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>From my observations over the last few seasons over here, the temperature
in the Alps quite often increases dramatically after a heavy snowfall. This
happens more foten than not in March (i.e. end of winter/start of spring).
So, for example, it might be -3C and snowing quite heavily for 12-24 hours
and then when the snow stops, within the space of about 1 hour, the
temperature goes up to 5-6C. This is not due to sun or anything - it stays
cloudy. In this situation the avalanche risk can be very high (not to
mention that about a metre of fresh snow goes from powder to porridge
before you can get up the mountain).
Since I really no nothing about the weather, I can't tell you why it
happens. It seemed odd to me when I first arrived here though, because in
my experience (when I worked in Falls Creek and Hotham) the warm
temperatures usually precede the snow in Australia, with cold temperatures
afterwards.
Tom
At 09:50 10/08/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Michael,
>
>I too saw the snow clouds - nice little anvils and all - and thought the
>same thing, it seemed really warm. Maybe it was the same effect as they have
>in the swiss alps, what's it called again? As the air descends it gets
>warmer, but very much so over there - it's a big concern with avalanches and
>what not...
--------------------------------------------------------------------
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- FAPSE Fax. +41 22 300 1482 -
- 9, Route de Drize -
- CH-1227, Carouge (GE) Email. johnston at fapse.unige.ch -
- Switzerland -
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029
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 20:15:06 +1000
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My thoughts were that there must have a rather steep temperature lapse in
the first 2000m of atmosphere, as it was obviously mild a near sea level yet
positively icey above 1200-1400m.
Michael
> >From my observations over the last few seasons over here, the temperature
> in the Alps quite often increases dramatically after a heavy snowfall.
This
> happens more foten than not in March (i.e. end of winter/start of spring).
> So, for example, it might be -3C and snowing quite heavily for 12-24 hours
> and then when the snow stops, within the space of about 1 hour, the
> temperature goes up to 5-6C. This is not due to sun or anything - it stays
> cloudy. In this situation the avalanche risk can be very high (not to
> mention that about a metre of fresh snow goes from powder to porridge
> before you can get up the mountain).
>
> Since I really no nothing about the weather, I can't tell you why it
> happens. It seemed odd to me when I first arrived here though, because in
> my experience (when I worked in Falls Creek and Hotham) the warm
> temperatures usually precede the snow in Australia, with cold temperatures
> afterwards.
>
> Tom
>
> At 09:50 10/08/99 +1000, you wrote:
> >Michael,
> >
> >I too saw the snow clouds - nice little anvils and all - and thought the
> >same thing, it seemed really warm. Maybe it was the same effect as they
have
> >in the swiss alps, what's it called again? As the air descends it gets
> >warmer, but very much so over there - it's a big concern with avalanches
and
> >what not...
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> - Tom Johnstone Tel. +41 22 705 9777 -
> - FAPSE Fax. +41 22 300 1482 -
> - 9, Route de Drize -
> - CH-1227, Carouge (GE) Email. johnston at fapse.unige.ch -
> - Switzerland -
> - http://www.unige.ch/fapse/emotion/members/johnston/johnston.html -
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
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030
X-Originating-Ip: [210.84.14.222]
From: "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow in NSW
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 04:40:05 PDT
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Both the AVN and MRF are pointing to fairly cold air (5400m thinkness up to
northern tablelands) by Saturday. The AVN also points to high surface RH
through southern and central NSW with moderate instability in the same area.
MRF also indicates moderate instability with TTI forecast at around 55 for
these regions on Saturday.
- Paul G.
>From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Snow in NSW
>Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 07:51:59 GMT
>
>The NSW BoM now has snow in its forecasts for Fri and Sat. "Rain and
>possible snowfalls" for the Central/Southern Tablelands for Fri,
>"Showers and snowfalls" for Sat, and "possible snowfalls" for the N
>Tablelands, Central and South West Slopes on Sat.
>
>The notes on the weather talk of possible falls down to 800m on the S
>and C Tablelands, and the progs all support that, but I think the
>timing of the rainband, the arrival of the cold air, and the
>individual troughs and areas of convergence around the system will be
>critical in deciding where the snow falls. It'll be an interesting one
>to watch in real time.
>
>
>--
>Laurier Williams
>Australian Weather Links and News
>http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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| Document: 990810.htm
Updated: 18 August 1999 |
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