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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Back online
002 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
003 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Snow in NSW
004 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] rainfall obs from AWS..
005 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Rocking Chair Snow Stories...
006 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
007 "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au] Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
008 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au] (no subject)
009 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
010 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au] (no subject)
011 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Cold Snap
012 "Nick Sykes" [nsykes at labyrinth.net.au] Forecast maximums for cold outbreak
013 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Cold Snap
014 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Womens Weeekly Weather Article.
015 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com] Radar coverage GFN
016 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Cold Snap
017 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Forecast maximums for cold outbreak
018 "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au] Coriolis effect
019 "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au] Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
020 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
021 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
022 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Re: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
023 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
024 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Re: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
025 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Snow in NSW
026 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
027 steve baynham [bayns at nor.com.au] new page and web cam
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 16:39:42 +0100
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Kevin Phyland wrote:
> Hi every1,
>
> Hmmnnn...sure does make the Mac OS sound complicated....
>
> Kevin. :))
All this is of course unneccesary for Windows '9x, Les has been using it since
1996 without any major problems, touch wood. There would have been a problem
with the dialup / tcpip / network settings which a remove and replace would have
been easier than replacing the whole OS!!
Don't Macs run Claris Works and very little else and can't you see the
expensive upgradeproof guts in some of them??
Les
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002
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 21:23:52 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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The Foehn effect?
Andrew Miskelly wrote:
>
> Michael,
>
> I too saw the snow clouds - nice little anvils and all - and thought the
> same thing, it seemed really warm. Maybe it was the same effect as they have
> in the swiss alps, what's it called again? As the air descends it gets
> warmer, but very much so over there - it's a big concern with avalanches and
> what not...
>
> Andrew.
> --
> Andrew Miskelly
> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael Thompson
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Monday, 9 August 1999 21:46
> Subject: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>
> >Mildest morning in a few weeks, or so it felt on the pushbike this morning.
> >However there was snow clouds to the west, albeit at moderate altitude, so
> >real snow line was perhaps well over 1200m.
> >
> >This afternoon some Cb to the east and a nice wintery looking cell to the
> >south.
> >
> >
> >Michael Thompson
> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
> >
> >
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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003
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 21:58:27 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow in NSW
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So, in saying that, do you reckon its a reasonable chance that
Blackheath might get some?
Lindsay P.
Laurier Williams wrote:
>
> The NSW BoM now has snow in its forecasts for Fri and Sat. "Rain and
> possible snowfalls" for the Central/Southern Tablelands for Fri,
> "Showers and snowfalls" for Sat, and "possible snowfalls" for the N
> Tablelands, Central and South West Slopes on Sat.
>
> The notes on the weather talk of possible falls down to 800m on the S
> and C Tablelands, and the progs all support that, but I think the
> timing of the rainband, the arrival of the cold air, and the
> individual troughs and areas of convergence around the system will be
> critical in deciding where the snow falls. It'll be an interesting one
> to watch in real time.
>
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather Links and News
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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004
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 21:53:06 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: rainfall obs from AWS..
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Interesting David, i enjoyed that.
We have days up here, (Blackheath), last winter as an example, which
gave us snow when it was around 2-3 degrees. One day last year, in
October I think, we had snow of sorts ("sago snow", followed by falls of
clear shards of ice, not hail) when it was around four degrees all day.
It actually settled on the ground for a while. I can't remember the RH
but it was pretty dry, relatively speaking.
Lindsay Pearce.
SNIP -----8-<
> Sure, it would be possible to substitute all obs of precipitation and
> T<0 (or 1?) as snow, but this would be wrong many times also, because
> such obs occur quite frequently under conditions of fog (or
> rain/hail) - could you imagine the excitement observations of "snow"
> at Renmark, for example, would generate! This also ignore the fact
> that the temperature at which snow falls is critically dependent on
> the humidity. As a rough guide, snow can occur upto about 1C in near
> saturate air, and in drier air (RH -relative humidity <96%) upto a
> temperature given by T=(96-RH)/7.3 - (this is a least square
> empirical fit, based on a very interesting series of studies carried
> out in Japan in the early 80's) so if RH~50% snow can fall upto 6C
> (such an ob, of course, would be exceptionally rare, after all 50% RH
> and precipitation does not occur very often). You could map the RH
> values in Td or Tw obs.. but I guess as a fairly general rule if the
> Tw is 0 (or Td if T-Td~0) or less then precipitation will likely be
> snow. An alternative would be to look on the snowcams at
> http://www.ski.com.au!
>
> Cheers,
>
> David.
> ________
> Dr David Jones ( ___)
> ( )
> Climate Group () )
> Bureau of Meteorology ( ) )
> Research Centre Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4660 ( )__ )
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4440 (________)_)
> Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425 .... ..
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au .... ..
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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005
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 21:41:28 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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Subject: aus-wx: Rocking Chair Snow Stories...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Yeah, wouldn't it be good to get a decent fall. It's been so uneventful
this winter (so far) that I have resorted to listening to "Back in the
old days" snow stories from friends at tennis of late. We've got folk
that have been living here for 50 years in the club. They have told some
good stories, like knee high snow in the orchards along Shipley Plateau
during the fifties, six inches of snow in the eighties, and skiing on
the golf course in November! And the golf course one wasn't that long
ago, ten years maybe. Last year we had that decent fall in August but
the wind was so strong (gale force) it blew/melted a lot of the snow and
only left us with a couple of inches or so on the ground. Still, it was
good fun. We had drifts of around four-six inches in our garden and
against the fence. I've got the pics of that one. Minus twenty windchill
or close to it, during that storm.
Lindsay P.
Andrew Miskelly wrote:
>...
> The good thing is that the 10 day MRF which has been fairly good in
> predicting this little event - if it happens - has another one just as good
> lined up for the following weekend, maybe, just maybe winter's on it's way!
>
> Damn right I'm hangin out Lindsay!!
>
> Andrew.
> --
> Andrew Miskelly
> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Blair Trewin
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Tuesday, 10 August 1999 10:07
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Potential cold outbreak for SE...
>
> >Both GASP and the UKMO model, especially the former, look highly
> >promising for a decent cold outbreak in Victoria on Friday. GASP
> >has thicknesses over Melbourne of around 527 on Friday night (and
> >sub-536 for 72 hours); UKMO has around 530.
> >
> >On the basis of that snow to 500 metres or so would seem a distinct
> >possibility.
> >
> >Blair Trewin
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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006
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 08:48:56 +1000
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Yes, Yes, YES!! That's the one, I believe it's erefered to as the Foehn Wind
though...
Thanks Lindsay.
Andrew.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
-----Original Message-----
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 7:27
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>The Foehn effect?
>
>Andrew Miskelly wrote:
>>
>> Michael,
>>
>> I too saw the snow clouds - nice little anvils and all - and thought the
>> same thing, it seemed really warm. Maybe it was the same effect as they
have
>> in the swiss alps, what's it called again? As the air descends it gets
>> warmer, but very much so over there - it's a big concern with avalanches
and
>> what not...
>>
>> Andrew.
>> --
>> Andrew Miskelly
>> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
>> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Michael Thompson
>> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>> Date: Monday, 9 August 1999 21:46
>> Subject: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>>
>> >Mildest morning in a few weeks, or so it felt on the pushbike this
morning.
>> >However there was snow clouds to the west, albeit at moderate altitude,
so
>> >real snow line was perhaps well over 1200m.
>> >
>> >This afternoon some Cb to the east and a nice wintery looking cell to
the
>> >south.
>> >
>> >
>> >Michael Thompson
>> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
>> >
>> >
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your
>> > message.
>> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>> >
>>
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>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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007
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 99 11:08:23 PDT
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I'll have what he's having :-)
Cheers,
Nandina
nandina at alphalink.com.au
----------
> Yes, Yes, YES!! That's the one, I believe it's erefered to as the Foehn Wind
> though...
>
> Thanks Lindsay.
>
> Andrew.
> --
> Andrew Miskelly
> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Lindsay
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 7:27
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>
>
> >The Foehn effect?
> >
> >Andrew Miskelly wrote:
> >>
> >> Michael,
> >>
> >> I too saw the snow clouds - nice little anvils and all - and thought the
> >> same thing, it seemed really warm. Maybe it was the same effect as they
> have
> >> in the swiss alps, what's it called again? As the air descends it gets
> >> warmer, but very much so over there - it's a big concern with avalanches
> and
> >> what not...
> >>
> >> Andrew.
> >> --
> >> Andrew Miskelly
> >> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> >> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> >>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Michael Thompson
> >> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >> Date: Monday, 9 August 1999 21:46
> >> Subject: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
> >>
> >> >Mildest morning in a few weeks, or so it felt on the pushbike this
> morning.
> >> >However there was snow clouds to the west, albeit at moderate altitude,
> so
> >> >real snow line was perhaps well over 1200m.
> >> >
> >> >This afternoon some Cb to the east and a nice wintery looking cell to
> the
> >> >south.
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >Michael Thompson
> >> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >> > message.
> >> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >> >
> >>
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> >> message.
> >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
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> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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008
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 11:16:45 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Apparently sends some people MAD as well!
--
----------
>From: "Nandina Morris"
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>Date: Thu, 12 Aug 1999 4:08 AM
>
> I'll have what he's having :-)
>
> Cheers,
>
> Nandina
> nandina at alphalink.com.au
>
> ----------
>> Yes, Yes, YES!! That's the one, I believe it's erefered to as the Foehn Wind
>> though...
>>
>> Thanks Lindsay.
>>
>> Andrew.
>> --
>> Andrew Miskelly
>> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
>> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Lindsay
>> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>> Date: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 7:27
>> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>>
>>
>> >The Foehn effect?
>> >
>> >Andrew Miskelly wrote:
>> >>
>> >> Michael,
>> >>
>> >> I too saw the snow clouds - nice little anvils and all - and thought the
>> >> same thing, it seemed really warm. Maybe it was the same effect as they
>> have
>> >> in the swiss alps, what's it called again? As the air descends it gets
>> >> warmer, but very much so over there - it's a big concern with avalanches
>> and
>> >> what not...
>> >>
>> >> Andrew.
>> >> --
>> >> Andrew Miskelly
>> >> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
>> >> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>> >>
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: Michael Thompson
>> >> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>> >> Date: Monday, 9 August 1999 21:46
>> >> Subject: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>> >>
>> >> >Mildest morning in a few weeks, or so it felt on the pushbike this
>> morning.
>> >> >However there was snow clouds to the west, albeit at moderate altitude,
>> so
>> >> >real snow line was perhaps well over 1200m.
>> >> >
>> >> >This afternoon some Cb to the east and a nice wintery looking cell to
>> the
>> >> >south.
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >Michael Thompson
>> >> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>> >> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
>> to:majordomo at world.std.com
>> >> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
>> your
>> >> > message.
>> >> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>> >> >
>> >>
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>> to:majordomo at world.std.com
>> >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>> >> message.
>> >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>> >
>> >
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>> > message.
>> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>> >
>>
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>>
>
>
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009
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 11:23:13 +1000
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hahahaha, yeah, more seriously though it gives alot of people major
headaches because of the change in temp and air pressure. In the long term
it might even have implications on bone health and all sorts of things...
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
-----Original Message-----
From: Mark Hardy [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 11:18
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>Apparently sends some people MAD as well!
>--
>----------
>>From: "Nandina Morris"
>>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>>Date: Thu, 12 Aug 1999 4:08 AM
>>
>
>> I'll have what he's having :-)
>>
>> Cheers,
>>
>> Nandina
>> nandina at alphalink.com.au
>>
>> ----------
>>> Yes, Yes, YES!! That's the one, I believe it's erefered to as the Foehn
Wind
>>> though...
>>>
>>> Thanks Lindsay.
>>>
>>> Andrew.
>>> --
>>> Andrew Miskelly
>>> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
>>> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Lindsay
>>> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>>> Date: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 7:27
>>> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>>>
>>>
>>> >The Foehn effect?
>>> >
>>> >Andrew Miskelly wrote:
>>> >>
>>> >> Michael,
>>> >>
>>> >> I too saw the snow clouds - nice little anvils and all - and thought
the
>>> >> same thing, it seemed really warm. Maybe it was the same effect as
they
>>> have
>>> >> in the swiss alps, what's it called again? As the air descends it
gets
>>> >> warmer, but very much so over there - it's a big concern with
avalanches
>>> and
>>> >> what not...
>>> >>
>>> >> Andrew.
>>> >> --
>>> >> Andrew Miskelly
>>> >> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
>>> >> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>>> >>
>>> >> -----Original Message-----
>>> >> From: Michael Thompson
>>> >> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>>> >> Date: Monday, 9 August 1999 21:46
>>> >> Subject: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>>> >>
>>> >> >Mildest morning in a few weeks, or so it felt on the pushbike this
>>> morning.
>>> >> >However there was snow clouds to the west, albeit at moderate
altitude,
>>> so
>>> >> >real snow line was perhaps well over 1200m.
>>> >> >
>>> >> >This afternoon some Cb to the east and a nice wintery looking cell
to
>>> the
>>> >> >south.
>>> >> >
>>> >> >
>>> >> >Michael Thompson
>>> >> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
>>> >> >
>>> >> >
>>> >> >
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>>> >> > message.
>>> >>
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>> >> >
>>> >>
>>> >>
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>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
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Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 11:39:04 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Still. Almost most people on this list agree a VERY cold outbreak is VERY
likely. So their forecast of 14 for Melbourne on Friday appears very
strange. A cold outbreak of the magnitude predicted by the models would
normally give a max of 10 (tops). Even Sydney is going to 14 on Saturday
which is extremely cold for Sydney. I disagree Michael. In this case they
should be doing more to alert people of the potential of very cold weather.
It makes no sense to me to sit on the fence in the face of all the evidence
presented by ALL the models
Mark
--
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________
----------
>From: "Michael Thompson"
>To:
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
>Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 7:46 PM
>
> If you are talking about the BOM forecasts ( not GASP model ) then I see
> their logic, you will find that the 3-4 day ahead forecasts are very
> conservative, and so they should be. You will probably find that they know
> very well about the potential situation and will refine the forecasts the
> closer we get. Strange as it seems it is one area in which I agree with what
> they do.
>
> Michael
>
>
>
>
>> outbreak with thickness forecast as low at 528 friday night (i think).
> The
>> BoM seems to think it won't be quite as cold as the models are making out
>> but Idon't know why. Last time I checked - the worst outlook (as in the
>
>
>
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011
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: "AusWx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Cold Snap
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 11:47:28 +1000
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Well it's two days before the forecast 'event' in NSW and it's still shaping
up to be major but dare we believe it in the light of this winter?
Forecasts have been really consistent and they haven't changed in the latest
releases. Geez, I hope they ARE conservative, then there could be even more
fun and games!
Some great looking cold speckled cloud on the latest IR Sat Image at
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/national/satellite/gilatest.shtml around and
below Perth, this is really the pudding in which the proof is found...
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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012
From: "Nick Sykes" [nsykes at labyrinth.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Forecast maximums for cold outbreak
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 13:11:23 +1000
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Hi all
Just been having an interesting discussion on IRC about the BOM forecast max
for the anticipated upcoming cold outbreak. I personally believe that BOM
are been conservative with their forecast maximums for Melbourne. They are
saying at this stage 14 for Melbourne, but I believe 11 is a more likely
maximum based on the models.
But it must be considered why the BOM have to be conservative. I remember an
instance 5 or so years ago when the BOM were forecasting a major cold
outbreak for early May. They were predicting maximums of 10 for 3 days with
hail etc. This cold outbreak died in the ass, the weather was fine and
pleasant. This had a big impact on the number of people that attended the
May Racing Carnival in Warrnambool. Organizers blamed the weather forecast
for scaring people away from the races, attendance were down.
The BOM obviously have to take a lot of factors into consideration when
making their forecasts.
The BOM on the radio did point out this morning that the forecast max for
friday would be experienced briefly, most of the time the temp will be
around 11. Highlights the fact that looking at the forecast max is not a
good a indication of how cold it will be.
Here's hoping they change their mines a start forecasting a sweet cold
outbreak, it will be a nice change.
Nick
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013
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 12:44:03 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold Snap
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Well it's two days before the forecast 'event' in NSW and it's still shaping
>up to be major but dare we believe it in the light of this winter?
I hate to rain on people's parade - but the latest SA BoM forecast seems to
significantly downplay the strength of this approaching change....
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
www.cobweb.com.au/~paisley
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014
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Womens Weeekly Weather Article.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 14:47:34 +1000 (EST)
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>
> The June 1999 Womens Weekly had a weather article titled " What Next", it
> would have done nostrodamis proud. What little gems did the article contain.
>
> "...Exmouth on the far north coast of Western Australia is rebuilding after
> a hurricane that nearly blew it off the map"
>
> Last atlas I looked at had Wyndham on the far north coast and Exmouth on the
> NW coast. The word Hurricane kind of says where this article is coming from.
Perhaps it was written by the WA equivalent of the Sydney journos
who think that western NSW begins at Penrith...
> "....Brisbane they're tidying up after being drenched and pelted in one of
> the worst storms in its history"
>
> These worst storms in history tend to strike Brisbane frequently don't they.
> How about we get Cyclone Wanda back for a rethink.
>
> " ..while other towns from Gympie in Queensland to Bairnsdale in Victoria
> are
> still suffering the affects of some of the worst floods in history"
,well, this much is accurate...
> and much of the rest of Victoria is well down on rainfall.
>
> " Oklahoma City was leveled by the worst twisters in history "
>
> This one takes the cake, if the city was leveled the death toll would have
> been tens of thousands, we all know that a tornado or even several cannot
> level an entire city. I am sure they have been far worst tornadoes too.
Well, actually, there probably haven't (it appears to have been, at
the very least, one of the most severe ever recorded), but 'leveled'
is using just a tad of journalistic licence...
I'm thinking of instituting an award for the worst media atrocity in
matters meteorological for the year. This will be a serious
contender.
Blair Trewin
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015
X-Originating-Ip: [203.56.75.184]
From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]
To: webmaster at severeweather.asn.au
Cc: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Radar coverage GFN
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 21:03:36 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hiya Michael....you sent me this....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This is a reminder to contact me if you are experiencing any
difficulties with regard to the radar or any other areas of the members
section of the ASWA Inc. site.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Well mate I have checked out the Grafton weather radar and there seem to be
a few consistencies with "glitches" on it, however, that can be put down to
terrestrial objects. There are two "glitches" to the north of the Trenayr
radar site, and I suspect they are the ABC Radio 2NR tower at Lawrence (738
Khz) The transmitter tower is 570 feet AMSL (above sea level) and would be
probably causing this. As well there are a number of other objects around
Grafton giving glitches. The 2GF transmitter to the east and the State Rail
Authority tower to the south near Grafton railway station would be another.
As well as the ADF tower at Grafton Airport gives the occasional blue blimp.
I have checked with a number of ABC weather reporters in the area when the
glitches come up and they have said the conditions have been CAVOK Ceiling
and Visibility OK....or as clear as a whistle).
The other spot on Grafton radar where there is a reasonably constant glitch
is southwest of Dorrigo.....I would presume this is the Point Lookout VOR
tower (aviation transmitter) or Majors Point or Round Mountain nearby. My
assumption is that because if the radar is positioned only about 60 feet
AMSL it is unable to disect or recognise metallic towers other than being a
rain event hitting the ground. I would say this is the scenario.
I must say I am still of the opinion that Mount Hyland behind Dundurrabin
should have been chosen for the "Grafton site"....however.....the BOM I
think were rushed into things after the Junction Hill storm. I tipped them
off about that one too a good hour before the event from Evans Head......oh
well.
Kind regards Halden Boyd
PS Michael Bath came down home to Evans Head last Thursday week for
lunch.....we had a great time and it was excellent to meet up for the first
time :) .....cheers
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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016
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold Snap
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 14:51:19 +1000 (EST)
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>
> >Well it's two days before the forecast 'event' in NSW and it's still shaping
> >up to be major but dare we believe it in the light of this winter?
>
> I hate to rain on people's parade - but the latest SA BoM forecast seems to
> significantly downplay the strength of this approaching change....
>
Actually, they're pushing it further east - Adelaide looks like it
might miss out on the best of it. All models seem to be converging to
thicknesses in the 530-532 range for Melbourne; not as spectacular as
it can be, but still enough for snow down to 600-800 metres. All of
the models that go out that far also push the cold air north into
NSW on Saturday (EC has 532 reaching Bourke). GASP has a particular
interesting pool with 850 hPa temperatures below 0 near the NSW/
Queensland border.
Blair Trewin
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017
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Forecast maximums for cold outbreak
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 14:52:58 +1000 (EST)
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>
> Hi all
>
>
> Just been having an interesting discussion on IRC about the BOM forecast max
> for the anticipated upcoming cold outbreak. I personally believe that BOM
> are been conservative with their forecast maximums for Melbourne. They are
> saying at this stage 14 for Melbourne, but I believe 11 is a more likely
> maximum based on the models.
>
Something else which comes into play is that the sun is a bit stronger
by August, so if you get a sunny interval (and most cold outbreak
days do have some) the temperature can rise sharply, if briefly. I'd
still be surprised if it gets to 14 on Friday - 12/13 seems more likely
to me, less if the cloud cover is unbroken.
Blair Trewin
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018
From: "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Coriolis effect
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 16:09:48 +1000
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Hi all,
I know the Coriolis effect has been discussed before, but I just came across a
web page that explains it marvelously simply (is that correct grammer?!).
Perhaps there are those of us that didn't completely understand previous
explanations.
http://abc.net.au/science/louts/coriolis.htm
Cheers,
Marty.
Brisbane, Australia
martyp at dynamite.com.au
Images of Canberra: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
Lightning Photos: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
ICQ: 11790565
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019
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 99 17:46:16 PDT
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Andrew - seriously, you are right. Our bodies are made to operate at their best at a certain temperature, and at a certain atmospheric pressure. Changes to these, especially dramatic ones, make the body work very hard to compensate. It is usually during these times those less well will feel lousy - and often become ill. Just ask the chalkies of the group how grotty their students become with strong winds blowing. It's not the wind - it's the change of atmospheric pressure which you will have recorded on your trusty barometer prior to the onset of the winds which brings them unstuck.
Cheers,
Nandina
nandina at alphalink.com.au
----------
> hahahaha, yeah, more seriously though it gives alot of people major
> headaches because of the change in temp and air pressure. In the long term
> it might even have implications on bone health and all sorts of things...
> --
> Andrew Miskelly
> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Mark Hardy
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 11:18
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>
>
> >Apparently sends some people MAD as well!
> >--
> >----------
> >>From: "Nandina Morris"
> >>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
> >>Date: Thu, 12 Aug 1999 4:08 AM
> >>
> >
> >> I'll have what he's having :-)
> >>
> >> Cheers,
> >>
> >> Nandina
> >> nandina at alphalink.com.au
> >>
> >> ----------
> >>> Yes, Yes, YES!! That's the one, I believe it's erefered to as the Foehn
> Wind
> >>> though...
> >>>
> >>> Thanks Lindsay.
> >>>
> >>> Andrew.
> >>> --
> >>> Andrew Miskelly
> >>> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> >>> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> >>>
> >>> -----Original Message-----
> >>> From: Lindsay
> >>> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >>> Date: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 7:27
> >>> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> >The Foehn effect?
> >>> >
> >>> >Andrew Miskelly wrote:
> >>> >>
> >>> >> Michael,
> >>> >>
> >>> >> I too saw the snow clouds - nice little anvils and all - and thought
> the
> >>> >> same thing, it seemed really warm. Maybe it was the same effect as
> they
> >>> have
> >>> >> in the swiss alps, what's it called again? As the air descends it
> gets
> >>> >> warmer, but very much so over there - it's a big concern with
> avalanches
> >>> and
> >>> >> what not...
> >>> >>
> >>> >> Andrew.
> >>> >> --
> >>> >> Andrew Miskelly
> >>> >> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> >>> >> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> >>> >>
> >>> >> -----Original Message-----
> >>> >> From: Michael Thompson
> >>> >> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >>> >> Date: Monday, 9 August 1999 21:46
> >>> >> Subject: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
> >>> >>
> >>> >> >Mildest morning in a few weeks, or so it felt on the pushbike this
> >>> morning.
> >>> >> >However there was snow clouds to the west, albeit at moderate
> altitude,
> >>> so
> >>> >> >real snow line was perhaps well over 1200m.
> >>> >> >
> >>> >> >This afternoon some Cb to the east and a nice wintery looking cell
> to
> >>> the
> >>> >> >south.
> >>> >> >
> >>> >> >
> >>> >> >Michael Thompson
> >>> >> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
> >>> >> >
> >>> >> >
> >>> >> >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >>> >> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> >>> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >>> >> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> >>> your
> >>> >> > message.
> >>> >>
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >>> >> >
> >>> >>
> >>> >>
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> >>> >> message.
> >>>
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >>> >
> >>> >
> >>> >
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> >>> > message.
> >>>
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >>> >
> >>>
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> >>> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >>> message.
> >>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >>>
> >>
> >>
> >> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >> message.
> >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >>
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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020
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 17:55:43 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I always though that the theory was the wind stripping electrons off the
body ?
Not my theory by the way.
Michael
> Andrew - seriously, you are right. Our bodies are made to operate at
their best at a certain temperature, and at a certain atmospheric pressure.
Changes to these, especially dramatic ones, make the body work very hard to
compensate. It is usually during these times those less well will feel
lousy - and often become ill. Just ask the chalkies of the group how grotty
their students become with strong winds blowing. It's not the wind - it's
the change of atmospheric pressure which you will have recorded on your
trusty barometer prior to the onset of the winds which brings them unstuck.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Nandina
> nandina at alphalink.com.au
>
> ----------
> > hahahaha, yeah, more seriously though it gives alot of people major
> > headaches because of the change in temp and air pressure. In the long
term
> > it might even have implications on bone health and all sorts of
things...
> > --
> > Andrew Miskelly
> > Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> > amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Mark Hardy
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Date: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 11:18
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
> >
> >
> > >Apparently sends some people MAD as well!
> > >--
> > >----------
> > >>From: "Nandina Morris"
> > >>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today
?
> > >>Date: Thu, 12 Aug 1999 4:08 AM
> > >>
> > >
> > >> I'll have what he's having :-)
> > >>
> > >> Cheers,
> > >>
> > >> Nandina
> > >> nandina at alphalink.com.au
> > >>
> > >> ----------
> > >>> Yes, Yes, YES!! That's the one, I believe it's erefered to as the
Foehn
> > Wind
> > >>> though...
> > >>>
> > >>> Thanks Lindsay.
> > >>>
> > >>> Andrew.
> > >>> --
> > >>> Andrew Miskelly
> > >>> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> > >>> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> > >>>
> > >>> -----Original Message-----
> > >>> From: Lindsay
> > >>> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >>> Date: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 7:27
> > >>> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd
today ?
> > >>>
> > >>>
> > >>> >The Foehn effect?
> > >>> >
> > >>> >Andrew Miskelly wrote:
> > >>> >>
> > >>> >> Michael,
> > >>> >>
> > >>> >> I too saw the snow clouds - nice little anvils and all - and
thought
> > the
> > >>> >> same thing, it seemed really warm. Maybe it was the same effect
as
> > they
> > >>> have
> > >>> >> in the swiss alps, what's it called again? As the air descends it
> > gets
> > >>> >> warmer, but very much so over there - it's a big concern with
> > avalanches
> > >>> and
> > >>> >> what not...
> > >>> >>
> > >>> >> Andrew.
> > >>> >> --
> > >>> >> Andrew Miskelly
> > >>> >> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> > >>> >> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> > >>> >>
> > >>> >> -----Original Message-----
> > >>> >> From: Michael Thompson
> > >>> >> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >>> >> Date: Monday, 9 August 1999 21:46
> > >>> >> Subject: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd
today ?
> > >>> >>
> > >>> >> >Mildest morning in a few weeks, or so it felt on the pushbike
this
> > >>> morning.
> > >>> >> >However there was snow clouds to the west, albeit at moderate
> > altitude,
> > >>> so
> > >>> >> >real snow line was perhaps well over 1200m.
> > >>> >> >
> > >>> >> >This afternoon some Cb to the east and a nice wintery looking
cell
> > to
> > >>> the
> > >>> >> >south.
> > >>> >> >
> > >>> >> >
> > >>> >> >Michael Thompson
>
> > >>> >> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
> > >>> >> >
> > >>> >> >
> > >>> >> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >>> >> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > >>> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >>> >> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the
body of
> > >>> your
> > >>> >> > message.
> > >>> >>
> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >>> >> >
> > >>> >>
> > >>> >>
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >>> >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > >>> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >>> >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
of
> > your
> > >>> >> message.
> > >>>
> >
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >>> >
> > >>> >
> > >>> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >>> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >>> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
of
> > your
> > >>> > message.
> > >>>
> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >>> >
> > >>>
> > >>>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >>> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >>> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > >>> message.
> >
>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >>>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
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> > >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > >> message.
> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >>
> > >
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> > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > > message.
> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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021
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 18:29:19 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
That might be why negative ion generators are supposed to beneficial..
Michael Thompson wrote:
>
> I always though that the theory was the wind stripping electrons off the
> body ?
>
> Not my theory by the way.
>
> Michael
>
> > Andrew - seriously, you are right. Our bodies are made to operate at
> their best at a certain temperature, and at a certain atmospheric pressure.
> Changes to these, especially dramatic ones, make the body work very hard to
> compensate. It is usually during these times those less well will feel
> lousy - and often become ill. Just ask the chalkies of the group how grotty
> their students become with strong winds blowing. It's not the wind - it's
> the change of atmospheric pressure which you will have recorded on your
> trusty barometer prior to the onset of the winds which brings them unstuck.
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > Nandina
> > nandina at alphalink.com.au
> >
> > ----------
> > > hahahaha, yeah, more seriously though it gives alot of people major
> > > headaches because of the change in temp and air pressure. In the long
> term
> > > it might even have implications on bone health and all sorts of
> things...
> > > --
> > > Andrew Miskelly
> > > Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> > > amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Mark Hardy
> > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > Date: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 11:18
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
> > >
> > >
> > > >Apparently sends some people MAD as well!
> > > >--
> > > >----------
> > > >>From: "Nandina Morris"
> > > >>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > >>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today
> ?
> > > >>Date: Thu, 12 Aug 1999 4:08 AM
> > > >>
> > > >
> > > >> I'll have what he's having :-)
> > > >>
> > > >> Cheers,
> > > >>
> > > >> Nandina
> > > >> nandina at alphalink.com.au
> > > >>
> > > >> ----------
> > > >>> Yes, Yes, YES!! That's the one, I believe it's erefered to as the
> Foehn
> > > Wind
> > > >>> though...
> > > >>>
> > > >>> Thanks Lindsay.
> > > >>>
> > > >>> Andrew.
> > > >>> --
> > > >>> Andrew Miskelly
> > > >>> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> > > >>> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> > > >>>
> > > >>> -----Original Message-----
> > > >>> From: Lindsay
> > > >>> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > >>> Date: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 7:27
> > > >>> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd
> today ?
> > > >>>
> > > >>>
> > > >>> >The Foehn effect?
> > > >>> >
> > > >>> >Andrew Miskelly wrote:
> > > >>> >>
> > > >>> >> Michael,
> > > >>> >>
> > > >>> >> I too saw the snow clouds - nice little anvils and all - and
> thought
> > > the
> > > >>> >> same thing, it seemed really warm. Maybe it was the same effect
> as
> > > they
> > > >>> have
> > > >>> >> in the swiss alps, what's it called again? As the air descends it
> > > gets
> > > >>> >> warmer, but very much so over there - it's a big concern with
> > > avalanches
> > > >>> and
> > > >>> >> what not...
> > > >>> >>
> > > >>> >> Andrew.
> > > >>> >> --
> > > >>> >> Andrew Miskelly
> > > >>> >> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> > > >>> >> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> > > >>> >>
> > > >>> >> -----Original Message-----
> > > >>> >> From: Michael Thompson
> > > >>> >> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > >>> >> Date: Monday, 9 August 1999 21:46
> > > >>> >> Subject: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd
> today ?
> > > >>> >>
> > > >>> >> >Mildest morning in a few weeks, or so it felt on the pushbike
> this
> > > >>> morning.
> > > >>> >> >However there was snow clouds to the west, albeit at moderate
> > > altitude,
> > > >>> so
> > > >>> >> >real snow line was perhaps well over 1200m.
> > > >>> >> >
> > > >>> >> >This afternoon some Cb to the east and a nice wintery looking
> cell
> > > to
> > > >>> the
> > > >>> >> >south.
> > > >>> >> >
> > > >>> >> >
> > > >>> >> >Michael Thompson
> >
> > > >>> >> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
> > > >>> >> >
> > > >>> >> >
> > > >>> >> >
> > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >>> >> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > >>> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >>> >> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the
> body of
> > > >>> your
> > > >>> >> > message.
> > > >>> >>
> > >
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >>> >> >
> > > >>> >>
> > > >>> >>
> > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >>> >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > >>> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >>> >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
> of
> > > your
> > > >>> >> message.
> > > >>>
> > >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >>> >
> > > >>> >
> > > >>> >
> > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >>> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >>> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
> of
> > > your
> > > >>> > message.
> > > >>>
> > >
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >>> >
> > > >>>
> > > >>>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >>> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >>> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > > your
> > > >>> message.
> > >
> >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >>>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > > >> message.
> > >
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >>
> > > >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> your
> > > > message.
> > >
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
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> > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> > > message.
> > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >
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> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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022
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 12:11:49 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
So why would they be so conservative (if indeed they are) is my
question? Is it because such forecasted conditions fall outside of what
would normally be expected (especially this year) and they are just
watching and waiting? I am just trying to learn here, not provoke
argument or tension towards the Bureau.
Lindsay P.
Mark Hardy wrote:
>
> Still. Almost most people on this list agree a VERY cold outbreak is VERY
> likely. So their forecast of 14 for Melbourne on Friday appears very
> strange. A cold outbreak of the magnitude predicted by the models would
> normally give a max of 10 (tops). Even Sydney is going to 14 on Saturday
> which is extremely cold for Sydney. I disagree Michael. In this case they
> should be doing more to alert people of the potential of very cold weather.
> It makes no sense to me to sit on the fence in the face of all the evidence
> presented by ALL the models
>
> Mark
> --
> _____________________________________________________
> Mark Hardy.
> The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
> Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
> Mobile 0414 642 739
> email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
> _____________________________________________________
>
> ----------
> >From: "Michael Thompson"
> >To:
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
> >Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 7:46 PM
> >
>
> > If you are talking about the BOM forecasts ( not GASP model ) then I see
> > their logic, you will find that the 3-4 day ahead forecasts are very
> > conservative, and so they should be. You will probably find that they know
> > very well about the potential situation and will refine the forecasts the
> > closer we get. Strange as it seems it is one area in which I agree with what
> > they do.
> >
> > Michael
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >> outbreak with thickness forecast as low at 528 friday night (i think).
> > The
> >> BoM seems to think it won't be quite as cold as the models are making out
> >> but Idon't know why. Last time I checked - the worst outlook (as in the
> >
> >
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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023
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 11:59:33 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Yeah, the Foehn wind. Doesn't that act as a warming (part of it) factor
on the south westerlies as they sink into the Sydney basin? Like the
other day Orange was seven degrees and Sydney was twenty. Apparently
this wind is cooler at the same altitude on the west side of the range
as say the same altitude on the east side of the range. Latent heat from
condensation and the type of lapse rate? I'm just guessing, still
learning about all of this.
Lindsay P.
Andrew Miskelly wrote:
>
> Yes, Yes, YES!! That's the one, I believe it's erefered to as the Foehn Wind
> though...
>
> Thanks Lindsay.
>
> Andrew.
> --
> Andrew Miskelly
> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Lindsay
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 7:27
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
>
> >The Foehn effect?
> >
> >Andrew Miskelly wrote:
> >>
> >> Michael,
> >>
> >> I too saw the snow clouds - nice little anvils and all - and thought the
> >> same thing, it seemed really warm. Maybe it was the same effect as they
> have
> >> in the swiss alps, what's it called again? As the air descends it gets
> >> warmer, but very much so over there - it's a big concern with avalanches
> and
> >> what not...
> >>
> >> Andrew.
> >> --
> >> Andrew Miskelly
> >> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> >> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> >>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Michael Thompson
> >> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >> Date: Monday, 9 August 1999 21:46
> >> Subject: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
> >>
> >> >Mildest morning in a few weeks, or so it felt on the pushbike this
> morning.
> >> >However there was snow clouds to the west, albeit at moderate altitude,
> so
> >> >real snow line was perhaps well over 1200m.
> >> >
> >> >This afternoon some Cb to the east and a nice wintery looking cell to
> the
> >> >south.
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >Michael Thompson
> >> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >> > message.
> >> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >> >
> >>
> >> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >> message.
> >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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024
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 12:16:56 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
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Pardon my ignorance but doesn't anyone think that the high in the east
might prevent the progress of this front a little? That is, keep it
lower down on the continent or intorduce some warmer winds? I am just
wondering. They still have snow possible for the Northern Tablelands and
I am just wondering about it all.
Lindsay Pearce.
Mark Hardy wrote:
>
> Still. Almost most people on this list agree a VERY cold outbreak is VERY
> likely. So their forecast of 14 for Melbourne on Friday appears very
> strange. A cold outbreak of the magnitude predicted by the models would
> normally give a max of 10 (tops). Even Sydney is going to 14 on Saturday
> which is extremely cold for Sydney. I disagree Michael. In this case they
> should be doing more to alert people of the potential of very cold weather.
> It makes no sense to me to sit on the fence in the face of all the evidence
> presented by ALL the models
>
> Mark
> --
> _____________________________________________________
> Mark Hardy.
> The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
> Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
> Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
> Mobile 0414 642 739
> email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
> _____________________________________________________
>
> ----------
> >From: "Michael Thompson"
> >To:
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
> >Date: Tue, 10 Aug 1999 7:46 PM
> >
>
> > If you are talking about the BOM forecasts ( not GASP model ) then I see
> > their logic, you will find that the 3-4 day ahead forecasts are very
> > conservative, and so they should be. You will probably find that they know
> > very well about the potential situation and will refine the forecasts the
> > closer we get. Strange as it seems it is one area in which I agree with what
> > they do.
> >
> > Michael
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >> outbreak with thickness forecast as low at 528 friday night (i think).
> > The
> >> BoM seems to think it won't be quite as cold as the models are making out
> >> but Idon't know why. Last time I checked - the worst outlook (as in the
> >
> >
> >
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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025
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow in NSW
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 12:25:48 GMT
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On Tue, 10 Aug 1999 21:58:27 -0700, Lindsay
wrote:
>So, in saying that, do you reckon its a reasonable chance that
>Blackheath might get some?
>
>
>Lindsay P.
Yes, Lindsay, I do, but not a lot.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the globals (00z run today Wednesday) have all
eased off the extreme event they were forecasting, though GASP and the
EC are still going for a pretty major cold snap. I agree with Blair --
things look most interesting for Victoria, with an 850hPa temp of -5
predicted over NE Vic for Sat am. Main item missing (or substantially
reduced) in the latest runs is the strong upper southerly jet. The MRF
basically spilts the jet into northern and southern limbs, with a void
over NSW. This has the effect of reducing the surge of cold upper air
over the state, but means that the 850 temps stay quite cold through
the weekend while the winds turn S to SSE, so that could be
interesting.
For Sydney residents, Saturday morning still looks interesting. MRF
has a thickness of about 537 over the Blue Mtns at 00z Sat, while GASP
has 532 at that time, with a fresh SSW flow, a lot more southerly than
usual for events like this. The EC has a deep slightly cut off low of
5440 at 500hPa over central NSW at 12z on Friday. I don't doubt that
it'll be cold enough for snow on the Blue Mtns, but the problem will
be the usual one of whether there'll be enough precip left in the
system by the time the cold air arrives. The models I've seen have the
rain with the front, and clearing by the time the colder air comes
through, with precipitable water indices pretty low. The Illawarra
high country might be interesting, with a forecast thickness of 532
and strong SSW winds making precip marginal but quite possible!
I suspect that in this, as in so many marginal situations, everything
will depend on the relatively minor variations from the global
forecasts that exist on the day. I still think it'll be a great day
for watching real-time weather, and especially looking for CVA
developments in the hourly satpix. I'll be at Blackheath, stoking the
fires and hoping for a dump!
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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026
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 22:45:43 +1000
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Think its that as winds descend the air compresses = heat ?
Michael
> Yeah, the Foehn wind. Doesn't that act as a warming (part of it) factor
> on the south westerlies as they sink into the Sydney basin? Like the
> other day Orange was seven degrees and Sydney was twenty. Apparently
> this wind is cooler at the same altitude on the west side of the range
> as say the same altitude on the east side of the range. Latent heat from
> condensation and the type of lapse rate? I'm just guessing, still
> learning about all of this.
>
> Lindsay P.
>
> Andrew Miskelly wrote:
> >
> > Yes, Yes, YES!! That's the one, I believe it's erefered to as the Foehn
Wind
> > though...
> >
> > Thanks Lindsay.
> >
> > Andrew.
> > --
> > Andrew Miskelly
> > Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> > amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Lindsay
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Date: Wednesday, 11 August 1999 7:27
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
> >
> > >The Foehn effect?
> > >
> > >Andrew Miskelly wrote:
> > >>
> > >> Michael,
> > >>
> > >> I too saw the snow clouds - nice little anvils and all - and thought
the
> > >> same thing, it seemed really warm. Maybe it was the same effect as
they
> > have
> > >> in the swiss alps, what's it called again? As the air descends it
gets
> > >> warmer, but very much so over there - it's a big concern with
avalanches
> > and
> > >> what not...
> > >>
> > >> Andrew.
> > >> --
> > >> Andrew Miskelly
> > >> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> > >> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> > >>
> > >> -----Original Message-----
> > >> From: Michael Thompson
> > >> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >> Date: Monday, 9 August 1999 21:46
> > >> Subject: aus-wx: Anyone think Sydney / Illawarra weather odd today ?
> > >>
> > >> >Mildest morning in a few weeks, or so it felt on the pushbike this
> > morning.
> > >> >However there was snow clouds to the west, albeit at moderate
altitude,
> > so
> > >> >real snow line was perhaps well over 1200m.
> > >> >
> > >> >This afternoon some Cb to the east and a nice wintery looking cell
to
> > the
> > >> >south.
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >Michael Thompson
> > >> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >
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> > your
> > >> > message.
> > >>
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >> >
> > >>
> > >>
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your
> > >> message.
> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > > message.
> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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027
X-Sender: bayns at nornet.nor.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 1999 23:38:58 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at nor.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: new page and web cam
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hey all,
have added a new section to my webpage, just to house my loops, had a break from doing them over the past few days. but you can find the latest up til 06z wednesday at http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/weatherdata.html
also, i bought a little b & w spy type video camera, i have rigged it up, and will be using it as a webcam as soon as i get a video/tv card for my puter for quick uploading for all to see.
see yas
steve
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| Document: 990811.htm
Updated: 18 August 1999 |
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