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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Monday, 23 August 1999 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au] Climate Forecasting
002 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Rain/snowline
003 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. South America
004 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Adelaide : very dry air (was:Melbourne: very dry air)
005 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Media watch
006 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Canberra sleet
007 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Media watch
008 Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au] Film Brands
009 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Hurricane Bret [Fwd: Special Operational Significant Event I
010 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] Media watch
011 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Perisher Packer
012 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. MRF Model Anomaly - was RE: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
013 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Unusual August
014 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Snow project
015 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Film speed
016 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Film Brands
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au]
To: "Aussie Weather Net" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Climate Forecasting
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 09:09:23 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.2106.4
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Following are snippets from an article published August 12 in the Queensland
Country Life which, in the light of recent (maybe not SO recent) Wx
correspondence, I thought may be of interest. Also thought that few on this
list would access the QCL.
Interview is with Dr. Roger Stone, Toowoomba based but world recognised
Climatologist with the well known Queensland Centre for Climate
Applications. Roger, who has facilitated a number of workshops for me, is
well known for his work with the SOI, and particularly SOI phases, in
relation to agriculture and climate outlooks in general.
Quote:
........... Interestingly, as we stand on the cusp of the new millennium,
the pace of climate forecasting development appears to be accelerating. So
be prepared to accommodate the ACW or Antarctic Circumpolar Wave, for
example.
Roger Stone believes work in this area may be even more important than the
SOI. The talk is of this being the next big breakthrough in improving
climate research.
"It will give us perhaps two years' warning of major protracted droughts or
wet periods," he said...........
.............."There is some suggestion we are starting to head back to
slightly wetter weather regimes," Roger Stone said. "It looks as though we
may have turned the corner with respect to the drier 80s and 90s."..........
..............."so expect to hear more too about the DPO, or Decadal Pacific
Oscillation. These decadal patterns, linked with the ACW, will undoubtedly
help farmers and graziers with their strategic planning."
End Quote:
Roger and a rep of BoM run "Managing for Climate" workshops for primary
producers in Queensland. Maybe ASWA members would be interested in hearing
from him on the subject of Climate.
All the best,
Bill
Proserpine
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002
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 10:21:40 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain/snowline
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Lindsay wrote:
>
> I was just reflecting on the borderline snow conditions up our way last
> Saturday...
Bit late on this thread but I was down at Perisher Valley during this
event and late last week (Thursday) events worth reporting;
1) The "dryness" of the air after the snow of Fri 13/8/1999 was
phenomenal, to say the least. Snow on the ground in Perisher
Valley remained "dry and powdery" to temperatures as high as
+4C, making the skiing great. Only in the sunniest, lowest and
warmest areas did "wet snow" appear. There was still some
powder snow to be found as late as Thu 19/8/1999.
2) Gale force winds of Wed night 18/8/1999 and the next day
picked up snow and blew it to immense heights in full sun.
It was a sight worthy of a pic.
3) Snow that fell on Thu 19/8/1999 night created some of
the most strange "rain/snow" line phenomenas that I have
experienced. One could almost draw a line at 1900m. Above
that height, the snow (some 15cm) fell dry and powdery.
As you skiied down the hill, within as little as 5m, the
result of this snow fall changed from dry and powdery to
a hard and frozen crusty cover. What struck me was the
rapidity of change with height and presumably the
temperature prevailing at the time.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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003
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 10:38:21 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: South America
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Keith Barnett wrote:
>
> I wish I could get hold of a decent weather map for that part of the
> world ie Argentina north to Central America...
Try COLA at http://grads.iges.org/pix/wx.html (taking either the
South America or Southern Hemisphere maps or generate your own
from READY at http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html using
only the AVN 191 or MRF models in the future...
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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004
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 10:58:07 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide : very dry air (was:Melbourne: very dry air)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Phil Bagust wrote:
>
> >Dewpoints in Melbourne have now fallen below 0, which is unusual in
> >a winter SW airstream. The potential exists for a very cold night
> >tonight, especially inland.
> >
> >No precipitation yet today, although there's a thin line near Geelong
> >on the radar.
> >
> >Blair Trewin
>
> Also very dry air in Adelaide, occasional high based cloud and very little
> rain (although the air's been cool) until 4.00pm CST, when a heavy shower
> came though, dropping the temp to less than 10 degrees.
[snip]
Please see my earlier Email that describes the snow conditions when this
dry air arrived in the Snowy Mountains from Sat 14/8/1999.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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005
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aus-wx: Media watch
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 11:04:58 +1000 (EST)
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Anyone else catch the blue on the ABC radio news this morning?
Hurricane Bret was claimed to have winds of up to 560 km/h! Closer
investigation revealed that what they actually meant to say was that
warnings had been posted for a 560-kilometre length of coastline...
(It's still an impressive storm, with winds well into the 200s, and
at last report has found the one virtually unpopulated bit of the
Texas coast to hit - the major impact is likely to end up being
flooding).
Also of interest globally following the discussion on South America
last week; Argentina got very warm towards the end of last week,
with Buenos Aires recording a maximum of 28 on Saturday (following
8 a week earlier). I haven't been following the charts closely enough
to see whether the same high-pressure system (which peaked at 1048
hPa) was responsible for both (the warm weather coming on the western
flank) but suspect it probably was.
Blair Trewin
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006
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 10:55:45 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra sleet
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Patrick Tobin wrote:
>
> Hi all,
>
> Just over 6 degrees at 12 Noon, Saturday in Canberra. We have had showers
> with the occasional bit of sleet over the last 2 hours -easing up a bit now
> which has allowed the temp to increase from the 3 - 5 that it was
> oscillating around for much of the morning.
[snip]
I was driving through the Canberra airport area on Sat morning
(14/8/1999) about 3am. Temp was +2C/+3C with spots of +1C with a lot
of wet snow falling. RH must have been very high as that nice, floating
snow that follows the air-stream over one's car did not appear until the
higher parts along the Monaro Highway south of Canberra. Clouds also
very low around the Canberra hills at that time. Higher parts were
recording between 0C and +1C. The climate-control system in my car
gives a very close to reality outside air temperature reading.
> The news has just reported wide-spread snow falls across SE NSW with
> Perisher reporting 40cm overnight.
That was an over-estimate in the extreme. That quantity fell in drifts
up high but only about 20cm fell in flatter areas. Also, very pretty
snow at Bullocks flat upon arrival with temp -1C/0C. I arrived just
before the snowfall that would cause chains to be put on at 5:30am.
It was dead calm, with large, well-formed flakes containing crystals
of the classic shape (rather rare) creating a depth on the ground of
3cm in about 20 minutes. That's a rather heavy snowfall rate which
was only sustained for about 30 mins.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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007
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 11:41:17 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Media watch
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Blair,
I've also been informed in the US #Weather channel that MSNBC had
originally said it was an "F-4 hurricane" rather than a Cat 4 hurricane!
Bret has crossed the coast between the cities of Brownsville and Corpus
Christi, however the county it hit on directly, had a population of
~450-600 people, and they were all evacuated to my knowledge. But,
there's supposedly a resident population of 50,000 cows!
Winds were 140mph (220km/h) sustained, but this has weakening to 125mph
at the moment, and further weakening should continue as it moves further
inland.
Anthony Cornelius
Blair Trewin wrote:
>
> Anyone else catch the blue on the ABC radio news this morning?
> Hurricane Bret was claimed to have winds of up to 560 km/h! Closer
> investigation revealed that what they actually meant to say was that
> warnings had been posted for a 560-kilometre length of coastline...
>
> (It's still an impressive storm, with winds well into the 200s, and
> at last report has found the one virtually unpopulated bit of the
> Texas coast to hit - the major impact is likely to end up being
> flooding).
>
> Also of interest globally following the discussion on South America
> last week; Argentina got very warm towards the end of last week,
> with Buenos Aires recording a maximum of 28 on Saturday (following
> 8 a week earlier). I haven't been following the charts closely enough
> to see whether the same high-pressure system (which peaked at 1048
> hPa) was responsible for both (the warm weather coming on the western
> flank) but suspect it probably was.
>
> Blair Trewin
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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008
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 10:17:58 +0800
From: Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au]
Organization: Strike One Lightning Photos
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Film Brands
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Michael,
It is a Mamiya 645 medium format camera.
It cost (and a good deal at that) $700 second hand about 7 years ago. It is not
a cheap hobby when you get into this style of photography and therefore is quite
useless when trying to take "snaps".
I use it mainly for lightning as I am of the opinion that if you are going to
get it on film, then you might as well get it as clear as you can.
Lightning strikes are one of those things that look even better bigger and
clearer (not to say that anything else doesn't)
Regards
--
Michael Fewings
Strike One Lightning Photos
http://strikeone.com.au
Michael Thompson wrote:
> Hi Michael
>
> What brand of medium format. I only know of Hasselblad and Bronica, with the
> first being very $$$$.
>
> Michael
>
> > For my photography I use a medium format camera for all my lightning shots
> and
> > use 50 ASA slide film (Fuji chrome Velvia).
> >
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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009
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 12:24:14 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Hurricane Bret [Fwd: Special Operational Significant Event Imagery
Report #234 -August 22, 1999]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
I know that some people already know about this site, but you can also
get mail outs of info, when they put more pictures on their site. These
are all very large images, but are well worth the wait! They are with
out a doubt, the best satellite pictures available on the net.
Scroll down and read the new products available.
Anthony Cornelius
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Special Operational Significant Event Imagery Report #234
-August 22, 1999
Date: Sun, 22 Aug 1999 21:16:23 -0400
>From: fsotelo at ssdnotes.wwb.noaa.gov
To: fsotelo at ssdnotes.wwb.noaa.gov
Images listed below can be found together in the "../Events/Current"
directory on the server:
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/
You can access this directory through the "Current" button in the
navigation bar of the web site.
------
Satellite information that appears in filenames below:
G8 - GOES-8
G10- GOES-10
GM - GMS
MT - METEOSAT
N2 - NOAA-12 (AVHRR)
N4 - NOAA-14 (AVHRR)
N5 - NOAA-15 (AVHRR)
------
This special report is issued to present images and movies of Hurricane
Bret which, at the time of this report's distribution, is a Category 4
hurricane making landfall on the coast of Padre Island in southern Texas
with winds of 120 knots (137 MPH).
IMAGE S23401: NOAA-14 POES AVHRR HRPT <> Channels 1,2,4 at 1 km res <>
08/22/99 21:30 UTC <> Multichannel color composite <> Gulf of Mexico
Hurricane Bret, a dangerous Category 4 storm, nears landfall on the
coast
of Padre Island in southern Texas. The storm moved north-northwest
through
the early part of the day before taking a more westerly track later in
the
afternoon. Winds associated with Bret were sustained at 120 knots when
this image was taken.
Image provided in preview (~40K) and standard (~586K) formats.
Preview (500X448):
{http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCbret234A_N4L.jpg}
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCbret234A_N4L.jpg
Standard (1280X1148):
{http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCbret234A_N4.jpg}
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCbret234A_N4.jpg
IMAGE S23402: NOAA-14 POES AVHRR HRPT <> Channels 1,2,4 at 1 km res <>
08/22/99 21:30 UTC <> Multichannel color composite <> Gulf of Mexico
A close-up look at the eye of Hurricane Bret and some of the cities
affected by its approach.
Image provided in preview (~40K) and standard (~101K) formats.
Preview (512X588):
{http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCbret234B_N4L.jpg}
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCbret234B_N4L.jpg
Standard (512X588):
{http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCbret234B_N4.jpg}
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCbret234B_N4.jpg
IMAGE S23403: GOES-8 <> Channels VIS at 1 km res, IR2 at 4 km res, IR4 at 4
km
res <> 08/21/99 12:45-23:45 UTC <> Multichannel color composite movie
<>
Gulf of Mexico
An AVI-format movie which includes almost every GOES-8 daylight image
available on August 22. The movie spans eleven hours at half-hour
intervals. OSEI customers with smaller monitors may wish to set their
screen resolution to at least 800X600 and view the movie with
stand-alone
software (i.e. outside of your browser window).
The movie is 600X444 and is in AVI format (1.6M).
{http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCbret234A_G8.avi}
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCbret234A_G8.avi
IMAGE S23404: GOES-8 <> Channels VIS at 1 km res, IR2 at 4 km res, IR4 at 4
km
res <> 08/21/99 02:45-23:45 UTC <> Multichannel color composite movie
<>
Gulf of Mexico
An AVI-format movie which contains the movie above (Image S23403) and 18
frames of infrared imagery from the late evening hours of August 21 and
pre-dawn hours of August 22. This movie spans 21 hours at half-hour
intervals with two missing frames at 04:45 UTC and 05:15 UTC. The
number
of frames in this movie make it almost twice the file size of Image
S23403.
OSEI customers with smaller monitors may wish to set their screen
resolution to at least 800X600 and view the movie with stand-alone
software
(i.e. outside of your browser window).
The movie is 600X444 and is in AVI format (3.0M).
{http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCbret234B_G8.avi}
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/Atlantic/TRCbret234B_G8.avi
----------
If you have any questions or comments, please contact a member of the
Operational Significant Event Imagery support team:
Fernando Sotelo
fsotelo at ssdnotes.wwb.noaa.gov
tel: (301) 763-8372
Litton, PRC, GOES Data Distribution System Support Contractor,
NOAA/NESDIS
OSEI
George.Stephens at noaa.gov
Rob.Fennimore at noaa.gov
Ralph.Meiggs at noaa.gov
William.Tseng at noaa.gov
Operational Significant Event Imagery Support Team
Interactive Processing Branch, (E/SP22)
tel: (301) 763-8142
fax: (301) 899-9215
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010
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 14:16:50 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Media watch
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
South American weather was very strange. The high temps at Buenos Aires
were balanced by a reported low of 3 at San Paulo where snow fell for
the first time in "living memory" (a wonderfully accurate
meteorological-media creation). Reports of -10 from southern Brazil and
up to 10 cms of snow as far north as 30S alt 1000 metres.
Don W
Blair Trewin wrote:
>
> Anyone else catch the blue on the ABC radio news this morning?
> Hurricane Bret was claimed to have winds of up to 560 km/h! Closer
> investigation revealed that what they actually meant to say was that
> warnings had been posted for a 560-kilometre length of coastline...
>
> (It's still an impressive storm, with winds well into the 200s, and
> at last report has found the one virtually unpopulated bit of the
> Texas coast to hit - the major impact is likely to end up being
> flooding).
>
> Also of interest globally following the discussion on South America
> last week; Argentina got very warm towards the end of last week,
> with Buenos Aires recording a maximum of 28 on Saturday (following
> 8 a week earlier). I haven't been following the charts closely enough
> to see whether the same high-pressure system (which peaked at 1048
> hPa) was responsible for both (the warm weather coming on the western
> flank) but suspect it probably was.
>
> Blair Trewin
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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011
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 14:06:20 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Perisher Packer
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Lindsay wrote:
>
> Hey yeah, I forgot Kerry owned half of the Aussie Alps. No wonder the
> channel nine snow report has been at Perisher, doing huge camera pans of
> the area and proclaiming its greatness.
>
> Lindsay P.
>
> Blair Trewin wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > ...and if you watch channel 9 Perisher Blue always seems to be rated good -
> > > excellent, even earlier this season when it was a joke.
> > >
> > > Michael
> >
> > I seem to recall 'Media Watch' had something to say about this a
> > few weeks back.
> >
> > (For those who are unaware, both Perisher Blue and Channel 9 are
> > owned by Kerry Packer)
I've got to agree with some of the comments. True about Kerry
Packer's position in regard to Perisher-Blue. True that the
reporters are prone to exaggeration. However, also true that
the conditions this year have been surprisingly good since
about mid-July. I've had a weekend in late July and a week
since August 14 and never skied in a better weather/snow
combination in 20 years of skiing. Plenty of snow in the
hills, not a great deal on the flats and sunnier sides,
but the quality has been marvelous. This last week saw
great conditions from Sat 14/8 to Wed 18/8. Big blow
on Thu 19/8 that gave way to calm and sunny conditions
from Fri 20/8 with the snow only marginally ruined
below 1900m by some new wet snow freezing. I've had some
better powder snow to lower levels but never with such
clear, cold and calm conditions to follow. That's been the
main difference with this year over others; some good snow,
very little rain, if any and clear, cold, mainly calm
conditions in between. Also, I almost forgot, some of the
least congested conditions on the ski lifts also (last Thu
excepted).
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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012
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 15:33:44 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: MRF Model Anomaly - was RE: Strong Winds, Cold Outbreak
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Please see below for a copy of a reply that I received from Glenn D. Rolfe
of NOAA-ARL followed by none other than the Chief of NCEP's Global Modeling
Branch, Mr. Hua-lu Pan...
Michael Scollay wrote on Thu, 12 Aug 1999 12:02:38 +1000:
>
> Ben Quinn wrote on Thu, 12 Aug 1999 10:55:32 +1000:
> > ...
> > Some models may be more guilty of this than others.. such as MRF.. i
> > have noticed that MRF likes to hammer SE Australia with upper systems at
> > 120 and 144 hours.. but by the time the system is inside 72 hours range
> > it has already toned it right down, and by 48 hours things are looking
> > much more conservative...
> [snip]
[corrected text follows]
>
> Issue of medium-term forecasts aside. In my use of AVN/MRF data during
> the last 2 months with some post-processing that I do to obtain a more
> reasonable automated forecast for Perisher Valley, I have confirmed a
> very interesting baseline anomaly in MRF that I will raise with READY
> initially and ultimately NCEP if it proves valid. This is it;
>
> MRF Baseline Anomaly: Consistently, from +180hrs to +288hrs, the
> Surface Pressure assumed at specific location -36.41S, 148.41E is
> increased from a mean of about 935mb at +168hrs to a mean of 980mb
> at +180hrs. This Surface Pressure alteration may arise from an
> alteration in the MRF baseline topography assumption that would
> adversely affect a much greater area, given that the model is run
> at a 191km resolution. Nevertheless, it would have a profound impact
> on the MRF forecast model outcomes from +180hrs to +288hrs.
Glenn Rolph (NOAA-ARL) wrote on Mon, 16 Aug 1999 11:12:11 -0400 (EDT)
> Michael:
>
> I see the same thing here and was not aware of it before. I will
> send this on to NCEP and see if they have any comments. Thanks.
>
> Glenn Rolph
> Research Meteorologist
In reply to Glenn's mail, the Chief of NCEP's Global Modeling Branch
came back with the answer within 12 minutes!...
Hua-Lu Pan (NCEP-GMB) wrote on Mon, 16 Aug 1999 15:24:27 +0000
> Dear Mr. Scollay,
>
> It is very observant of you to notice that difference. At NCEP, the
> first seven days of the forecast is done with a T126 version of the
> model (about 105 km resolution). After that, we truncate the model
> down to T62 (about 200 km) for the rest of the forecast. The idea is
> that predictability of scales smaller than synoptic are gone by day
> seven and we just want to try to predict the large scale flow pattern.
> Since the two parts of the forecast have different terraine height,
> the change in the bias is explained. I hope you are not seriously
> using the meteogram beyond 5 days for a single location as I doubt
> that they are very useful. I would be interested to hear your comment
> about the forecasts though.
>
> Hua-Lu Pan
I sent Hua-Lu some rather detailed comments including the corrections
that I apply in order to generate a better forecast.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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013
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-FromDomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 15:41:11 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Unusual August
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Howdy all - Im back now after being away in Narromine / Gilgandra / Coffs
Harbour & Kempsey.
Have had a varied experience Weather wise lately, after being in several areas.
Week commencing August 9, I was in Dubbo - First arrived to heavy rain and
squally winds (Sunday night). Cleared to beautiful conditions - sunny days,
cold nights with a few frosts (something unusual for me). Then Thursday night
had my 1st storm for a while, storm being assoc. with the passage of the front.
Hail reported in Gilgandra on Friday morning just before I landed there. Storm
in Dubbo was great with a decent number of cg's and very loud thunder, squally
rain and winds.
Got back to the East Coast to very warm Weather - absolutely beaut! And they
didn't even get any rain like I had a Dubbo. This Coffs Harbour was absolutely
beaut, with warm sunny days and mild nights and decent NE'ers blowing. Even went
for a swim!
Last week culminated to 27c temps in allot of areas, including Kempsey where I
was on Thurs / Friday. Then the shitty weather blew in for the weekend as usual.
One thing of note is how dry it has been - only had 30mm of rain for the whole
month and things have now dried out.
Paul at Port Macquarie
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014
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Cc: Tim Grugeon
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow project
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 06:41:59 GMT
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On Sun, 22 Aug 1999 22:32:09 +1000, Jimmy Deguara
wrote:
>Hi everyone,
>
>Hi Jimmy here,
>
>Whilst at the weatherwatch meeting, it was brought up by Laurier that there
>should be some research into the more misunderstood aspects of snowfalls in
>Australia, particularly the historical aspects. So I would like to
>re-iterate this message to people on the list and/or ASWA.
>
>Are there anyone who would like to take part in this project?? I know Tim
>Crugeon is keen to get started. I would like to see some of the more
>experienced people taking the leading role if they have time such as
>Laurier, Don or Michael Scollay but really anyone can do it. This is an
>important and ongoing project and will take some doing. If you would like
>to be involved because you just love snow etc and would like to find out
>more, contact Tim Crugeon
>
>Tim Grugeon
>
>At this stage, it is up to those in any state to join in if they wish and
>organise themselves. You have been given this opportunity so I won't be
>getting too involved with it.
>
I'm keen to be involved in this, Jimmy, and have cc'd Tim to let him
know.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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015
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Film speed
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 18:42:10 +1000
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Having a polariser filter does not preclude experiments with exposure. I
only use a polariser if I know that it will show out a cloud shot better.
Best with decks of middle clouds on bright sunny days. But usually I do
everything sans filters, and certainly would never dream of doing things
like using a red filter for sunsets.
Michael
> Hi all,
>
> Michael Bath wrote:
> >You can fairly safely go one one or two
> > stops either side of the light meter readings if necessary, and still
get a good shot.
>
> Do you have any suggestions on how far you shoul set the light meter
> readings for different environments? I was originally going experiment
> with that, until Paul M. swore black and blue that I should just invest
> in getting a polariser lens (for very bright pictures).
>
> We (ASWA) should organise a proffessional photographer to talk at each
> state and advise what film & settings they personally use. WA have
> already got it easy with Mike Fewwings and Nick Djorvic (spelling) to
> assist them.
>
> Anthony Cornelius
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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016
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Film Brands
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 1999 18:31:20 +1000
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The bigger the film ( physically ) usually the better the end image I
assume.
Michael
> Michael,
>
> It is a Mamiya 645 medium format camera.
>
> It cost (and a good deal at that) $700 second hand about 7 years ago. It
is not
> a cheap hobby when you get into this style of photography and therefore is
quite
> useless when trying to take "snaps".
>
> I use it mainly for lightning as I am of the opinion that if you are going
to
> get it on film, then you might as well get it as clear as you can.
>
> Lightning strikes are one of those things that look even better bigger and
> clearer (not to say that anything else doesn't)
>
> Regards
> --
> Michael Fewings
> Strike One Lightning Photos
> http://strikeone.com.au
>
>
>
> Michael Thompson wrote:
>
> > Hi Michael
> >
> > What brand of medium format. I only know of Hasselblad and Bronica, with
the
> > first being very $$$$.
> >
> > Michael
> >
> > > For my photography I use a medium format camera for all my lightning
shots
> > and
> > > use 50 ASA slide film (Fuji chrome Velvia).
> > >
> >
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>
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| Document: 990823.htm
Updated: 09 September 1999 |
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