From                                           Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 "John Graham" [gorzzz at optusnet.com.au]         Re: Chasers with VODAPHONE
002 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.  NPMOC access stuffed:-("
003 steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]             todays pics
004 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]         Schofields grass fire
005 "NICK MOIR" [nmoir at hotmail.com]                ATTN SYDNEY STORM CHASERS 
006 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)          NPMOC access stuffed:-("
007 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out 
008 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]           Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out 
009 Norman Lynagh [lynagh at dial.pipex.com]          Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001

From: "John Graham" [gorzzz at optusnet.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Chasers with VODAPHONE
Date: Sat, 18 Sep 1999 04:42:04 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


----- Original Message -----
From: Halden Boyd [halden at lis.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Friday, September 17, 1999 8:37 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Chasers with VODAPHONE


[snip]
> PPS My son Deni who works for ONETEL as a Network Operations Control boss
> advises me that Onetel between now and the end of the year will be
offering
> the first Australian roaming network.
> This means that if you sign up with Onetel (and I am guaranteed the
digital
> pricing will be competitive with the three carriers) their system will use
> all three carriers' tower networks which will mean that it will improve
> coverage out of site......ie if you are closer to a Telstra/Optus/Voda
> tower you will go though it.
> I will keep you all posted on this development   :)
>
I hope One.Tel run their mobile phone service better than their internet
service (One.Net)....... I had a LOT of trouble logging on with them......
John


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002

Date: Mon, 20 Sep 1999 10:27:58 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Stuffed 1500Z Satpics - Was "Re: aus-wx: NPMOC access stuffed:-("
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Laurier Williams wrote on Fri, 17 Sep 1999 14:22:44 GMT:
> 
> Michael, interestingly, the Dundee University 3-hourly IR global
> images have been missing the 1500z image for over a week, while the
> JCU archive hasn't had a 1500z image for months.

Laurier & others: Reason for this is probably missing source images
from the common "mirror" source. I was led the believe that most of
these sites; NPMOC, JCU, JMA etc. receive raw Satpics from GMS5 which
raises the possibility of GMS-5 and/or the receiving equipment being
responsible. Somehow, I can't imagine that GMS-5 is running into 
congestion problems at 1500Z every day. I don't think these satellites
do backups:-) 1500Z each day does correspond to the first major image
while the position of GMS5 is totally within the Earth's shadow. This
happens from about 1200Z to 1700Z each day. Perhaps the signal-to-noise
ratio drops at that time or there's some major temperature transition 
that upsets the satellite, or there's excessive cosmic partical 
activity at present which Earth's magnetic field normally deflects in a 
tear-drop-like shape that the satellite passes through causing a burst
of eccessive transmission errors, or maybe GMS-5's batteries are a
bit sad and it needs to wait until the Sun's energy fires up the
solar panels so that maximum transmission power is the possible.
Who knows? It could also be a function of receiving equipment...
which begs the question "what is the primary image source if it
is not local satellite receiving equipment?".

One thing I do know is that even with the most complete archive 
that I've found at;

gopher://gopher.tkl.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/11/Images/GMS_Quick_Look_Images/

Those images at 1400Z and 1500Z are inevitably missing each day
from 30/08/1999 until the present.

Michael Scollay       mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003

X-Sender: bayns at mail.broad.net.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Mon, 20 Sep 1999 16:42:56 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: todays pics
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

hullo,
just trying out my new toys!! these were taken just this afternoon, about 30 minutes back.....:)

some cool looking clouds around

steve from gold coast

http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/TEST.jpg
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/TEST1.jpg
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/TEST2.jpg

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004

Date: Mon, 20 Sep 1999 18:48:51 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Schofields grass fire
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Daniel you're not off the topic at all, in fact I'm sure all would agree
that bushfires are very related to droughts, El Nino/La Nina etc etc.
I have not been able to find anything on the drought index in the
Bureau's website. The information is available by subscription and of
course there is a fair bit of stuff in the Long Paddock website which
especially caters for Queensland farmers. There is also a software
package called the Australian Rainman but I don't know anything much
about it.
I would suggest that fire forecasts in the long term could be linked to
and accompany El Nino projections but it's probably a different ballgame
as there is the botanical factor..so many different species of trees and
grasses some more flammable than others. The eucalypts are of course
just about as explosive as petrol given the chemical similarities (I
think it's a cross between mineral turpentine and petroleum).
I don't have any time for the politically correct green/pink lobby that
knows the price of everything and the value of nothing when it comes to
the need for controlled burnoffs, but that's another issue..


Daniel Weatherhead wrote:
> 
> Hey everyone,
> 
> Just before the rain last thursday night, i was beginning to think that
> maybe we might be in for a bad bushfire season up here. Since the Rural Fire
> Service is all jittery about burning off ( because of the pressures from all
> quarters), the undergrowth in my area has become thick over the last decade
> or so (last fires came thru here 1967? i think), and with the dry weather
> recently and the winds, alot of the forests are very dry.
> With the urban environment creeping into bushed area more and more, does
> anyone think that in australia, we should have special provisions for living
> in fire prone country especially when;
> 1. austarlian eucalypt bushfire are the most dangerous of all wooded fires,
> 
> 2. With earthmoving equipment, and engineeering technology becoming better
> and more available, house are being built where they would't have 10 years
> ago. Go for a drive in any mountain area where there is bush and see how
> houses are attached to the sides of cliffs.
> 
> 3.Will environmental awareness becoming more so, there is a hesitation in
> burning off, cutting down trees therefore increasing fire fuel around
> houses.
> 
> Just some thoughts. I don't think there is enough bushfire awareness at the
> moment. In the years after the new year fires in sydney, there was but since
> then i feel there has been a complacency mood set in. Any way i know i am
> off the topic, but maybe there could be some sort of fire forecast. I know
> we get fire danger, but rarely do we hear that, and most outbreaks generally
> come when we least know.
> 
> Daniel Weatherhead
> 
> Keith wrote--->
> >
> >Before the last lot of rain and storms the drought index here was about
> >34 which is really quite low for fires however when it gets to 50 a lot
> >of grasses start to dry out enough to be flammable. But the index is
> >highly subjective depending on the rainfall which of course can be
> >wildly at variance from one place to another.On projections based on an
> >assumption of continuing rainfall of <5mm per day the index would have
> >reached 50 in about another 2 weeks.
> >Although it's called the (Byram-Keetch) drought index it is used mainly
> >in estimating bushfire potential.
> >Sufficient to say that yes we are going through quite a dry spell.
> >Probably these westerlies (I had a dewpoint of minus 1 yesterday
> >morning) are the main cause.
> >
> 
> ______________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005

X-Originating-IP: [203.26.177.2]
From: "NICK MOIR" [nmoir at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: ATTN SYDNEY STORM CHASERS 
Date: Mon, 20 Sep 1999 02:46:59 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

  MY NAME IS NICK MOIR , PHOTOGRAPHER WITH THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD.
I AM INTERESTED IN DOING A PHOTO ESSAY ON A COUPLE OF STORM CHASERS IN THE 
SYDNEY REGION , I WOULD COME WITH YOU ON A CHASE AT ANY TIME , DAY OR NIGHT. 
I AM EAGER TO SHOOT THE CHASE AND THE CHASERS , THE CHASE DOES NOT ACTUALLY 
HAVE TO BE SUCCESSFUL.
  IF YOU ARE INETERESTED CONTACT ME ON MY HOTMAIL ADDRESS nmoir at hotmail.com 
OR RING ME ON 0419649217.

I AM ALSO NOT TOTALLY STUPID WHEN IT COMES TO WEATHER , HAVING CHASED A FEW 
STORMS IN MY TIME.

______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006

From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: Stuffed 1500Z Satpics - Was "Re: aus-wx: NPMOC access stuffed:-("
Date: Mon, 20 Sep 1999 11:03:50 GMT
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On Mon, 20 Sep 1999 10:27:58 +1000, Michael Scollay
 wrote:

>Laurier Williams wrote on Fri, 17 Sep 1999 14:22:44 GMT:
>> 
>> Michael, interestingly, the Dundee University 3-hourly IR global
>> images have been missing the 1500z image for over a week, while the
>> JCU archive hasn't had a 1500z image for months.
>
>Laurier & others: Reason for this is probably missing source images
>from the common "mirror" source. I was led the believe that most of
>these sites; NPMOC, JCU, JMA etc. receive raw Satpics from GMS5 which
>raises the possibility of GMS-5 and/or the receiving equipment being
>responsible. Somehow, I can't imagine that GMS-5 is running into 
>congestion problems at 1500Z every day. I don't think these satellites
>do backups:-) 1500Z each day does correspond to the first major image
>while the position of GMS5 is totally within the Earth's shadow. This
>happens from about 1200Z to 1700Z each day. Perhaps the signal-to-noise
>ratio drops at that time or there's some major temperature transition 
>that upsets the satellite, or there's excessive cosmic partical 
>activity at present which Earth's magnetic field normally deflects in a 
>tear-drop-like shape that the satellite passes through causing a burst
>of eccessive transmission errors, or maybe GMS-5's batteries are a
>bit sad and it needs to wait until the Sun's energy fires up the
>solar panels so that maximum transmission power is the possible.
>Who knows? It could also be a function of receiving equipment...
>which begs the question "what is the primary image source if it
>is not local satellite receiving equipment?".
>
>One thing I do know is that even with the most complete archive 
>that I've found at;
>
>gopher://gopher.tkl.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/11/Images/GMS_Quick_Look_Images/
>
>Those images at 1400Z and 1500Z are inevitably missing each day
>from 30/08/1999 until the present.
>
Michael, could it be something as simple as that, around the equinox,
the sun is shining straight into the satellite sensor at 1400/1500z,
making the collection of any images impossible?

-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007

From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out the window
Date: Mon, 20 Sep 1999 21:58:16 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Controversy corner.

Am I the only one that thinks that modern near forecasting ( weather in next
few hours ) has become far too model and chart orientated to the point that
the view outside the window is even ignored.

Today is a case in point. The morning forecast from BOM for Illawarra was
for Fine. In reality at 8am I was highly interested in a suspicious cloud
bank to the east. During the morning some weak Cu built to the SE. The 11.30
update forecast now said partly cloudy. Good I thought the BOM has been
watching. The Cu during the afternoon thickened rapidly, showers were
evident a short distance out to sea from about 2pm. At 4pm the first shower
fell in Wollongong. Amazing the BOM 4.30pm forecast came out as FINE !  At
5.30pm a quite heavy shower occurred in Wollongong.

The Northern Illawarra is in "looking" distance from the BOM. The weather
outside the BOM window to the SE would have revealed rapidly building Cu in
the SE flow, so why stick to a forecast that is going to obviously wrong.

I suppose the prime example was the Sydney Hailstorm.

Don't get me wrong I am not having a dig at models, in fact I am a avid
model watcher. But I always rely on visual over anything else for near
forecasts.

Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com


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008

From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out the window
Date: Mon, 20 Sep 1999 22:40:35 +1000
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Michael and all,

I'm still very much in the the beginners' corner down here and models are
the one thing I don't rely on.  I use water vapour, infra red & visual
images, loops, 850, 300hPa & thickness analyses to try and make my own
forecast from what I see from my 'window' and the analyses.  I'm working on
the theory that if I do this for long enough while continuing to learn the
theory behind the processes, I'll start to recognise patterns & developments
more readily.  As this happens, I'm hoping to be able to look further out in
time.  I've already learnt to look much further afield than 'my own
backyard' to see what's coming from further upstream.

I have a fear that if I rely on models, without looking out my own window
and the window provided by the satellites, that I won't learn, I'll only
regurgitate......

my own personal 2cents worth...

Jane ONeill
ASWA - Victoria
Email: cadence at rubix.net.au 
Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence
Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA Inc.)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

�

�



>-----Original Message-----
>From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Michael
>Thompson
>Sent: Monday, 20 September 1999 9:58
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head
>out the window
>
>
>Controversy corner.
>
>Am I the only one that thinks that modern near forecasting

>weather in next
>few hours ) has become far too model and chart orientated to the point that
>the view outside the window is even ignored.
>
>Today is a case in point. The morning forecast from BOM for Illawarra was
>for Fine. In reality at 8am I was highly interested in a suspicious cloud
>bank to the east. During the morning some weak Cu built to the SE.
>The 11.30
>update forecast now said partly cloudy. Good I thought the BOM has been
>watching. The Cu during the afternoon thickened rapidly, showers were
>evident a short distance out to sea from about 2pm. At 4pm the first shower
>fell in Wollongong. Amazing the BOM 4.30pm forecast came out as FINE !  At
>5.30pm a quite heavy shower occurred in Wollongong.
>
>The Northern Illawarra is in "looking" distance from the BOM. The weather
>outside the BOM window to the SE would have revealed rapidly building Cu in
>the SE flow, so why stick to a forecast that is going to obviously wrong.
>
>I suppose the prime example was the Sydney Hailstorm.
>
>Don't get me wrong I am not having a dig at models, in fact I am a avid
>model watcher. But I always rely on visual over anything else for near
>forecasts.
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://thunder.simplenet.com
>
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009

Date: Mon, 20 Sep 1999 13:50:18 +0100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Norman Lynagh [lynagh at dial.pipex.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out the window
X-Mailer: Turnpike (32) Version 4.00  
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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In message <001201bf035f$71778d20$a2e76ccb at ozemail>, Michael Thompson
 writes
>Controversy corner.
>
>Am I the only one that thinks that modern near forecasting ( weather in next
>few hours ) has become far too model and chart orientated to the point that
>the view outside the window is even ignored.
>
>Today is a case in point. The morning forecast from BOM for Illawarra was
>for Fine. In reality at 8am I was highly interested in a suspicious cloud
>bank to the east. During the morning some weak Cu built to the SE. The 11.30
>update forecast now said partly cloudy. Good I thought the BOM has been
>watching. The Cu during the afternoon thickened rapidly, showers were
>evident a short distance out to sea from about 2pm. At 4pm the first shower
>fell in Wollongong. Amazing the BOM 4.30pm forecast came out as FINE !  At
>5.30pm a quite heavy shower occurred in Wollongong.
>
>The Northern Illawarra is in "looking" distance from the BOM. The weather
>outside the BOM window to the SE would have revealed rapidly building Cu in
>the SE flow, so why stick to a forecast that is going to obviously wrong.
>
>I suppose the prime example was the Sydney Hailstorm.
>
>Don't get me wrong I am not having a dig at models, in fact I am a avid
>model watcher. But I always rely on visual over anything else for near
>forecasts.
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://thunder.simplenet.com
>
>

The same problem is all too prevalent in the UK these days. A
significant factor is that forecasters now have such a high workload
that there is little time for thinking, let alone looking out of the
window. Manning levels make it inevitable that model output is followed
slavishly. I don't know about Australia, but over here minimising costs
and maximising revenue takes precedence. Inevitably the quality of the
product suffers.

Norman.
===================================================================
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy          Tel:  +44 (0)1494 870220
Chalfont St. Giles                   E-Mail:  lynagh at dial.pipex.com
Buckinghamshire
England
===================================================================
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