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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Tuesday, 21 September 1999 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out
002 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Summery Forecast
003 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Missing GMS5 14Z and 15Z images...
004 Kevin Burrows [k.burrows at bom.gov.au] Missing GMS5 14Z and 15Z images...
005 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Missing GMS5 14Z and 15Z images...
006 "Paul Graham" [paulrjg at hotmail.com] My E-mail Address...
007 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au] (no subject)
008 steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au] congestus - Revised edition
009 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Hot North Winds on the Tablelands.
010 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Snow Pics
011 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out
012 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Snow, and borderline conditions etc
013 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Hot North Winds on the Tablelands.
014 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] Hot North Winds on the Tablelands.
015 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Sydney thundery showers
016 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Thunder heard
017 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] congestus - Revised edition
018 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Couple of new pics...
019 "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au] Couple of new pics...
020 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Summery Forecast
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out the window
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 00:04:23 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.71.1712.3
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
...and for those interested it hasn't stopped raining here all night so far.
On the radar there os a nice little patch over wollongong and to the east.
IDF05N04
ILLAWARRA
Tonight
Fine. Cool with light to moderate south to southeast winds.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Thompson [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Monday, 20 September 1999 21:56
Subject: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out
the window
>Controversy corner.
>
>Am I the only one that thinks that modern near forecasting ( weather in
next
>few hours ) has become far too model and chart orientated to the point that
>the view outside the window is even ignored.
>
>Today is a case in point. The morning forecast from BOM for Illawarra was
>for Fine. In reality at 8am I was highly interested in a suspicious cloud
>bank to the east. During the morning some weak Cu built to the SE. The
11.30
>update forecast now said partly cloudy. Good I thought the BOM has been
>watching. The Cu during the afternoon thickened rapidly, showers were
>evident a short distance out to sea from about 2pm. At 4pm the first shower
>fell in Wollongong. Amazing the BOM 4.30pm forecast came out as FINE ! At
>5.30pm a quite heavy shower occurred in Wollongong.
>
>The Northern Illawarra is in "looking" distance from the BOM. The weather
>outside the BOM window to the SE would have revealed rapidly building Cu in
>the SE flow, so why stick to a forecast that is going to obviously wrong.
>
>I suppose the prime example was the Sydney Hailstorm.
>
>Don't get me wrong I am not having a dig at models, in fact I am a avid
>model watcher. But I always rely on visual over anything else for near
>forecasts.
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://thunder.simplenet.com
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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002
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: "AusWx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Summery Forecast
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 11:18:15 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.71.1712.3
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Hi all,
On the subject of forecasts, lets hope they've got it right for the next few
days. The afternoon showers and thunderstorms forecast for the Illawarra
(and the SE) for Wed, Thur and Fri would be very welcome!
Andrew.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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003
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 11:16:59 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Missing GMS5 14Z and 15Z images...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
[snip preamble]
Laurier Williams wrote on Mon, 20 Sep 1999 11:03:50 GMT:
>
> Michael, could it be something as simple as that, around the equinox,
> the sun is shining straight into the satellite sensor at 1400/1500z,
> making the collection of any images impossible?
Let's summarise this issue to date:
1) Most sites are missing GMS5 satpic images between 1400Z and
1500Z since 30/8/1999. Out of all examined sites, each is missing
the same image(s). It is not known whether this affects all sites
that receive and/or process GMS5 satpic images.
2) I (Michael Scollay) postulated that this may be caused by
problems in GMS5 transmission caused by the position of GMS5
relative to the Sun during the time of image loss. Possible
reasons are; drop in signal-to-noise ratio, increased solar
radiation, satellite cold/heat transition, satellite battery
life deficiency but who knows?
3) Laurier proposed the above hypothesis.
It could be so and it may also be deduced from the presence or
absence of images during the previous equinox(s). Going back
through the archive at;
gopher://gopher.tkl.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/11/Images/GMS_Quick_Look_Images/
Note that this particular archive goes back to GMS4 days from
199504120100Z! However, just examining 1999 reveals the
following;
4) Some (<10) missing images from time to time that are not
systematic and more typical of GMS5 software and positioning
maintenance cycles (I didn't count them all).
5) Missing 1400Z and 1500Z images from 199902261400Z (24 days
before equinox) to 199904121500Z (21 days after equinox)
inclusive and again from 199908301400Z (21 days before equinox)
till the present time.
6) I predict that the return of full 1400Z and 1500Z images
will occur around 19991017 (26 days after the equinox). From
1995 to 1998 evidence, this is the most probable date.
7) Also interesting to note that GMS4 suffered a worse fate
loosing 1400Z and 1500Z images until 199504201500Z. This is
8 days more than GMS5 has demonstrated. GMS4's last image was
199506130000Z. Then 0100Z to 0500Z is missing with GMS5
operating from 199506130600Z. At the other equinox in 1995,
this time from GMS5, the missing 14Z and 15Z image time span
was 19950901 to 19951017 inclusive.
I agree with the hypothesis of the Sun causing some sort
of trouble with the collection and/or transmission of GMS5
satpic images at these specific times in the day for a
certain period both before and after the equinox(s), is
responsible. I would be interested to know exactly why it
is so. Are special sunglasses thus needed for GMS5?:-)
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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004
X-Sender: kburrows at saserver
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Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 11:56:02 +0900
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Kevin Burrows [k.burrows at bom.gov.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Missing GMS5 14Z and 15Z images...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All,
A note on one of the BOM internal pages says that
THE ECLIPSE OPERATION OF GMS-5 WILL BE PERFORMED FROM 30TH AUGUST TO 15TH
OCTOBER.
During this time between 1400 and 1600 UTC the Sun, Earth and GMS-5 are
almost in line. Presumabley the GMS-5 sensors are overloaded by the sun
and therefore no picture.
Kevin Burrows
Climate Services SA
At 11:16 21/09/1999 +1000, you wrote:
>[snip preamble]
>
>Laurier Williams wrote on Mon, 20 Sep 1999 11:03:50 GMT:
>>
>> Michael, could it be something as simple as that, around the equinox,
>> the sun is shining straight into the satellite sensor at 1400/1500z,
>> making the collection of any images impossible?
>
>Let's summarise this issue to date:
>
>1) Most sites are missing GMS5 satpic images between 1400Z and
>1500Z since 30/8/1999. Out of all examined sites, each is missing
>the same image(s). It is not known whether this affects all sites
>that receive and/or process GMS5 satpic images.
>
>2) I (Michael Scollay) postulated that this may be caused by
>problems in GMS5 transmission caused by the position of GMS5
>relative to the Sun during the time of image loss. Possible
>reasons are; drop in signal-to-noise ratio, increased solar
>radiation, satellite cold/heat transition, satellite battery
>life deficiency but who knows?
>
>3) Laurier proposed the above hypothesis.
>
>It could be so and it may also be deduced from the presence or
>absence of images during the previous equinox(s). Going back
>through the archive at;
>
>gopher://gopher.tkl.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/11/Images/GMS_Quick_Look_Images/
>
>Note that this particular archive goes back to GMS4 days from
>199504120100Z! However, just examining 1999 reveals the
>following;
>
>4) Some (<10) missing images from time to time that are not
>systematic and more typical of GMS5 software and positioning
>maintenance cycles (I didn't count them all).
>
>5) Missing 1400Z and 1500Z images from 199902261400Z (24 days
>before equinox) to 199904121500Z (21 days after equinox)
>inclusive and again from 199908301400Z (21 days before equinox)
>till the present time.
>
>6) I predict that the return of full 1400Z and 1500Z images
>will occur around 19991017 (26 days after the equinox). From
>1995 to 1998 evidence, this is the most probable date.
>
>7) Also interesting to note that GMS4 suffered a worse fate
>loosing 1400Z and 1500Z images until 199504201500Z. This is
>8 days more than GMS5 has demonstrated. GMS4's last image was
>199506130000Z. Then 0100Z to 0500Z is missing with GMS5
>operating from 199506130600Z. At the other equinox in 1995,
>this time from GMS5, the missing 14Z and 15Z image time span
>was 19950901 to 19951017 inclusive.
>
>I agree with the hypothesis of the Sun causing some sort
>of trouble with the collection and/or transmission of GMS5
>satpic images at these specific times in the day for a
>certain period both before and after the equinox(s), is
>responsible. I would be interested to know exactly why it
>is so. Are special sunglasses thus needed for GMS5?:-)
>
>Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
*********************************************************************
* Kevin Burrows * *
* Meteorologist * PO Box 421 *
* Climate and Consultative Services * Kent Town *
* South Australian Regional Office * South Australia 5071 *
* Bureau of Meteorology * *
* * Phone: (08) 8366 2691 *
* internet: k.burrows at bom.gov.au * Fax: (08) 8366 2693 *
*********************************************************************
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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005
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 14:15:14 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Missing GMS5 14Z and 15Z images...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Kevin Burrows wrote on Tue, 21 Sep 1999 11:56:02 +0900:
>
> Hi All,
>
> A note on one of the BOM internal pages says that
>
> THE ECLIPSE OPERATION OF GMS-5 WILL BE PERFORMED FROM 30TH AUGUST TO 15TH
> OCTOBER.
>
> During this time between 1400 and 1600 UTC the Sun, Earth and GMS-5 are
> almost in line. Presumabley the GMS-5 sensors are overloaded by the sun
> and therefore no picture.
>
[snip]
If the above text can be taken literally, then "ECLIPSE OPERATION"
sounds like a planned modus operandi of GMS5. This begs the question
as to whether GMS5 is being used to study the solar corona caused by
the Earth eclipsing the Sun around both equinox instead of taking
Earthly satpics. In my archive of visual satpics (now discontinued),
there are a bunch of images that are nevertheless transmitted
despite the Sun glaring right into the lens at other times in the
year. While overload during eclipses seems a plausible explanation
initially, the fact that GMS5 is positioned well within Earth's
shadow (take the extent of the Earth's shadow during a lunar eclipse
for an example of this) means that the Sun is well hidden by the Earth
and NOT shining directly on GMS5. This gives a golden opportunity to
study the Sun's corona without the Earth's atmosphere being in the
way.
mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006
X-Originating-IP: [210.84.9.219]
From: "Paul Graham" [paulrjg at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: My E-mail Address...
Date: Sun, 19 Sep 1999 04:05:44 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
To all concerned, if you wish to send me e-mail - this includes ASWA related
mail - please send it to my marconi (paul at marconi.careless.net) account and
NOT TO MY HOTMAIL ACCOUNT. Much appreciated,
Paul G.
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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007
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 16:14:53 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Missing GMS5 14Z and 15Z images...
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I have always thought the eclipse mode operation was a far simpler issue.
That is, while the satellite passes in the earth's shadow does not have
enough solar power to operate.
MH
--
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________
----------
>From: Michael Scollay
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Missing GMS5 14Z and 15Z images...
>Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 2:15 PM
>
> Kevin Burrows wrote on Tue, 21 Sep 1999 11:56:02 +0900:
>>
>> Hi All,
>>
>> A note on one of the BOM internal pages says that
>>
>> THE ECLIPSE OPERATION OF GMS-5 WILL BE PERFORMED FROM 30TH AUGUST TO 15TH
>> OCTOBER.
>>
>> During this time between 1400 and 1600 UTC the Sun, Earth and GMS-5 are
>> almost in line. Presumabley the GMS-5 sensors are overloaded by the sun
>> and therefore no picture.
>>
> [snip]
>
> If the above text can be taken literally, then "ECLIPSE OPERATION"
> sounds like a planned modus operandi of GMS5. This begs the question
> as to whether GMS5 is being used to study the solar corona caused by
> the Earth eclipsing the Sun around both equinox instead of taking
> Earthly satpics. In my archive of visual satpics (now discontinued),
> there are a bunch of images that are nevertheless transmitted
> despite the Sun glaring right into the lens at other times in the
> year. While overload during eclipses seems a plausible explanation
> initially, the fact that GMS5 is positioned well within Earth's
> shadow (take the extent of the Earth's shadow during a lunar eclipse
> for an example of this) means that the Sun is well hidden by the Earth
> and NOT shining directly on GMS5. This gives a golden opportunity to
> study the Sun's corona without the Earth's atmosphere being in the
> way.
>
> mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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008
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Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 16:44:57 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: congestus - Revised edition
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hey,
these are congestus right!?!?
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/NEW1.jpg (W - WSW)
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/NEW2.jpg (SE)
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/NEW3.jpg (E)
steve GC
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009
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 09:06:29 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Hot North Winds on the Tablelands.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
For those in the know more than me...
I've got a question about Blackheath (And general Cent. Tabs. region)
weather, particularly in summer.
There are times when Blackheath has a very similar temp to Sydney.
Could someone please explain, under what circumstances such conditions
would prevail and the dynamics of such a situation? It happened recently
in the mild/warm weather we had, where our temps were very close to
Sydney temps rather than the usual 6-10 degree difference for our
altitude.
Thanks,
Lindsay P.
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010
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 10:32:30 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Snow Pics
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
As an aside to my email on my snow pics/chase in August, I was also
reading an earlier email where Laurier and Michael Scollay I think were
talking about Mount Trickett (on the Oberon/Jenolan road near the
Jenolan Caves turnoff?) and that it was possibly the highest main road
in the area.
Well, this was indeed where I saw the most snow during this chase. I
forgot to mention I have a photo of decent snow falling in that area
during this chase and also of a complete ground cover too. According to
my map, this area is around the 1300 metres mark. Does that sound right?
Shooters Hill is sign posted at 1250 but is that the Hill or the
township altitude? I've always gone to Shooters for the best snow but
maybe I should hit the Trickett area more often.
Lindsay P.
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011
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 08:59:36 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out the window
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Interesting Andrew,
We had rain last night, it started out as cold mist/low cloud (around 5
degrees) and then some heavier but brief showers came in. Only two and a
half mm in the gauge this morning (tuesday) though. Overcast and very
light rain/trace falls just now.
Lindsay P.
PS: We are thinking about driving through your area (Taralga) on our way
to our Christmas holidays this year (Burril Lakes). Any nice spots in
particular we could check out on the way through? We are coming via
Oberon, I think, around 3/1/00
drew Miskelly wrote:
>
> ...and for those interested it hasn't stopped raining here all night so far.
> On the radar there os a nice little patch over wollongong and to the east.
>
> IDF05N04
> ILLAWARRA
> Tonight
> Fine. Cool with light to moderate south to southeast winds.
>
> --
> Andrew Miskelly
> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael Thompson
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Monday, 20 September 1999 21:56
> Subject: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out
> the window
>
> >Controversy corner.
> >
> >Am I the only one that thinks that modern near forecasting ( weather in
> next
> >few hours ) has become far too model and chart orientated to the point that
> >the view outside the window is even ignored.
> >
> >Today is a case in point. The morning forecast from BOM for Illawarra was
> >for Fine. In reality at 8am I was highly interested in a suspicious cloud
> >bank to the east. During the morning some weak Cu built to the SE. The
> 11.30
> >update forecast now said partly cloudy. Good I thought the BOM has been
> >watching. The Cu during the afternoon thickened rapidly, showers were
> >evident a short distance out to sea from about 2pm. At 4pm the first shower
> >fell in Wollongong. Amazing the BOM 4.30pm forecast came out as FINE ! At
> >5.30pm a quite heavy shower occurred in Wollongong.
> >
> >The Northern Illawarra is in "looking" distance from the BOM. The weather
> >outside the BOM window to the SE would have revealed rapidly building Cu in
> >the SE flow, so why stick to a forecast that is going to obviously wrong.
> >
> >I suppose the prime example was the Sydney Hailstorm.
> >
> >Don't get me wrong I am not having a dig at models, in fact I am a avid
> >model watcher. But I always rely on visual over anything else for near
> >forecasts.
> >
> >Michael Thompson
> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
> >
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
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012
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 10:05:18 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Snow, and borderline conditions etc
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I've recently got my August 14 Oberon snow chase photos back (Sorry, I
don't have a scanner so I can't post them although I could get copies
done if folk are interested) and they are not too bad. There's one of me
getting blasted by snow near Shooters Hill, various other snow falling
shots and some nice snow amongst the pines shots with a bit more snow on
the ground than I had actually recalled, maybe an inch or two.
The conditions were very borderline that day. It was around three
degrees or just under when I left Blackheath in the arvo and I'd say
between zero and one degree at Shooters Hill with steady snow falling.
That night, we had snow come into Blackheath at around 7:30pm, the wind
had turned more to the south, than the SW, I think. It started as sleet
around 6pm and there was a light cover on the ground by 8pm that was
washed away by rain/sleet an hour later. I have a shot (pretty dark) of
the snow falling in Blackheath too. My car had a centimetre or two of
slush on it when I drove up to the bottle shop,it was pissing down with
snow at that time, about 8:30pm and around 0.5 to 1.0 degrees.
Anyway, I was prompted to write this up after reading an earlier (His
June 99 email follows this) snow story/observations from Michael Scollay
and his fascinating observations on warm snow and borderline conditions
etc. Its not unusual to see snow fall in "warm" conditions up here, its
really interesting to watch.
Lindsay P.
PS: Michael, if you have time, could you explain a little about Lapse
rate and how it applies to the Central Tab, and how such an enormous
lapse rate came about in Katoomba as you described below. Laurier, Don
and anyone else please feel free to comment. Does snow reaching the
ground from higher cloud bases on "warmer" days have to do with the
effect of evaporative cooling in the drier air, ie the snow melts in the
"warmer" air and then re-freezes?
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
>
>
> My obs of "warm" snow in since I started watching such stuff
> from 1973 follows. But I can imagine that given the right
> conditions, obs of "snow" in Sydney could go to quite high
> temps. Maybe not as high as 6C but maybe 4C to 5C;
>
> There is a relationship between cloud-level, lapse rate and
> humidity. When clouds in Katoomba had bases around 2500m,
> the RH might have been 60-70% and the lapse-rate enormous
> with 4C in Katoomba and 16C in Sydney. Under these conditions,
> I've seen very decent snow flakes make it to the ground and
> melt on contact with "ice" in the precipitation to temps
> approaching 6C. Total ice in the precipitation would come
> in around 4C with nice light snow falling from about 1C
> down. Accummulation was a function of intensity and ground
> temp which in Katoomba would not normally happen until about
> -0.5C was reached. In Perisher Valley on rare occasions when
> the RH is low, I've seen snow come from a long way up when
> the temp is a high as 6C! This would actually accumulate on
> top of existing snow cover creating a nice slushy layer.
> Bring the clouds down to the deck and forget such sites.
> Under high humidity conditions, you need temps below 0C with
> first flakes appearing at about +0.5C. On one occasion last
> year, the temp was -3C in Perisher (1730m) and -2C in
> Jindabyne (900m?) with really heavy snow falling over the
> entire altitude range. Now that was an easterly storm with
> a 1000mb-500mb thickness around 5340m. Somewhat weird (the
> lousy lapse rate) if you ask me. I could "go on" about snow
> but that'll do:-)
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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013
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hot North Winds on the Tablelands.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 17:37:44 +1000 (EST)
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>
> For those in the know more than me...
>
>
> I've got a question about Blackheath (And general Cent. Tabs. region)
> weather, particularly in summer.
>
> There are times when Blackheath has a very similar temp to Sydney.
>
> Could someone please explain, under what circumstances such conditions
> would prevail and the dynamics of such a situation? It happened recently
> in the mild/warm weather we had, where our temps were very close to
> Sydney temps rather than the usual 6-10 degree difference for our
> altitude.
>
> Thanks,
>
>
> Lindsay P.
>
This will happen on any occasion when there is a seabreeze affecting
central Sydney but not further inland. This is most common in summer,
but can happen in other seasons (it's also the reason why the western
suburbs are often much warmer than the east).
The difference in mean maximum temperatures between Katoomba and
Sydney ranges from 2.8 degrees in December and January to 7.1 degrees
in June, and in mid-summer the frequency of days over 30 is quite
similar at the two sites (3.1 days/month at Sydney, 2.6 at Katoomba).
Blair Trewin
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014
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 17:52:33 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hot North Winds on the Tablelands.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
This can also happen when warm air is advected across say at 3000 ft but
an inversion forms over Sydney and because of middle or high level
cloud, doesn't break up. As a reuslt you get a day like last week when
Katoomba is as warm as Richmond - rare !
don W
Blair Trewin wrote:
>
> >
> > For those in the know more than me...
> >
> >
> > I've got a question about Blackheath (And general Cent. Tabs. region)
> > weather, particularly in summer.
> >
> > There are times when Blackheath has a very similar temp to Sydney.
> >
> > Could someone please explain, under what circumstances such conditions
> > would prevail and the dynamics of such a situation? It happened recently
> > in the mild/warm weather we had, where our temps were very close to
> > Sydney temps rather than the usual 6-10 degree difference for our
> > altitude.
> >
> > Thanks,
> >
> >
> > Lindsay P.
> >
> This will happen on any occasion when there is a seabreeze affecting
> central Sydney but not further inland. This is most common in summer,
> but can happen in other seasons (it's also the reason why the western
> suburbs are often much warmer than the east).
>
> The difference in mean maximum temperatures between Katoomba and
> Sydney ranges from 2.8 degrees in December and January to 7.1 degrees
> in June, and in mid-summer the frequency of days over 30 is quite
> similar at the two sites (3.1 days/month at Sydney, 2.6 at Katoomba).
>
> Blair Trewin
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015
X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified)
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32)
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 19:38:35 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney thundery showers
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all
A couple of CB's formed late afternoon over the Blue Mountains here, with a
couple of bolts of lightning, i was out at Rooty Hill from 4-6pm
watching/taking photos of the cell, and a nice cell further northW, just
after the sun set everything died, but it also cleared a little to reveal 4
cb's way out west somewhere, i finished a roll of film so ill get them
developed tomorrow and scan them, and stuff, ill post again when they are
up on my site.
Matthew Smith
ASWA Committee Member
----------Storm Chase Reports and Photos:---------
------http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm-----
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016
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
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Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 20:04:45 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Thunder heard
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi,
Whilst talking to Mario (a new member) on the phone, we discussed the weak
storms that developed this afternoon on the ranges. Some heavy showers as
these were quite shallow. These are your typical upper cold air type of
thunderstorms. The anvils spread out in most directions although the rear
flanking line was quite reasonable. There must have been some heavy showers
in areas where these developed and matured but they dissipated later. I
have taken 3 photos...
With regards to the system in Victoria and southern NSW, I am more excited
about this system than most that have come through, It is aligned north
south. I like those... I think some good action can be expected over the
next few days
Jimmy Deguara
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017
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 20:09:21 +1000
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
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X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: congestus - Revised edition
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Steve, Everyone..
Yep - that's congestus..
There was actually a line of Cb's NE of Brisbane just off the coast for
most of the morning.. they were not the kind of Cb we have seen over the
past 4 months or so.. quite summery looking (although very fiborous and
weak.. but summery looking none the less).. i was a little surprised
considering the airstream they were forming in..
The models are interesting over the next week or so.. NGP is piss
farting around with an upper level trough for the eastern states over
the weekend.. and all models have a trough for SE Australia late
week/over the weekend.. this afternoons AVN run has -2 LI's for Brisbane
10am Friday morning.. although i'm not convinced about those at the
moment.. AVN has a bad run every now and then, and these values look a
bit fishy to me..
steve baynham wrote:
>
> hey,
> these are congestus right!?!?
>
> http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/NEW1.jpg (W - WSW)
> http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/NEW2.jpg (SE)
> http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/NEW3.jpg (E)
>
> steve GC
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
**************************************************
* Ben Quinn
* The Brisbane Storm Chasers Homepage
* http://www.bsch.simplenet.com
* The NEMAS wx Educations Section
* http://www.nemas.net
* The Australian Weather Pages Webring
*http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/ben/webring/index.htm
*
***************************************************
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018
X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au
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Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 20:49:08 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Couple of new pics...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey ppls,
I have just added another section to my page. It has two pictures taken
from someone else in the North Island of New Zealand..
Check em out and tell me what you think, or if you know the types of cloud
in the pics that would be a great help...
http://lightning.virtualave.net/other.htm
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019
From: "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Couple of new pics...
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 22:00:22 +1000
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Wow, Andrew! Awesome clouds!
They are Altocumulus Lenticularis (or lenticular for short). Not sure about them
being a precursor to storms or frontal systems, though. Apparently no
significant weather is produced as a result of lenticular clouds (please let me
know if this is wrong), but occassionally if there is sufficient moisture in the
surrounding atmosphere, they can become thick enough to produce light rain (or
snow showers in sub-zero temps). Also, because they are associated with
high-speed winds in the middle layers, they may be precursors of windy
conditions at ground level.
Cheers,
Marty.
Brisbane, Australia
martyp at dynamite.com.au
Images of Canberra: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
Lightning Photos: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
3D Photography: http://www.bit.net.au/~erinm/3d
ICQ: 11790565
-----Original Message-----
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Tuesday, 21 September 1999 21:41
Subject: aus-wx: Couple of new pics...
>Hey ppls,
>
>I have just added another section to my page. It has two pictures taken
>from someone else in the North Island of New Zealand..
>
>Check em out and tell me what you think, or if you know the types of cloud
>in the pics that would be a great help...
>
>http://lightning.virtualave.net/other.htm
>
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020
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Summery Forecast
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 22:17:35 +1000
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These thunderstorms on 3 days forecasts rarely come right for SE NSW.
The scary part is the Northern rivers have none forecast. Last season I saw
this almost identical forecast on no less than 2 occasions, on both the SE
snuck through the Illawarra in the early hours of the morning, and the next
few days in the Illawarra were fine. However a trough moved into NE NSW and
gave severe storms over those few days.
Don't be surprised if next Friday and Saturday we get a post from Michael
Bath about his great storms.
Michael
> Hi all,
>
> On the subject of forecasts, lets hope they've got it right for the next
few
> days. The afternoon showers and thunderstorms forecast for the Illawarra
> (and the SE) for Wed, Thur and Fri would be very welcome!
>
> Andrew.
> --
> Andrew Miskelly
> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>
>
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| Document: 990921.htm
Updated: 22 September 1999 |
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