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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Wednesday, 22 September 1999 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Snow, and borderline conditions etc
002 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Thunder heard
003 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out
004 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out
005 "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au] Weather forecasts. What's wrong with sticking your head out
006 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Weather forecasts. What's wrong with sticking your head out
007 "Daniel Weatherhead" [dpw14 at hotmail.com] Weather forecasts. What's wrong with sticking your head out
008 "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com] Sydney looking good ?
009 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] Weather forecasts. What's wrong with sticking your head out
010 peter.corlett at doi.vic.gov.au Spring Party: Melbourne!
011 David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com] NSW sev. storm advice 15:27
012 "Adam Mayo" [oyam at bigpond.com] Sydney Storm
013 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Action in Sydney at 18:30PM
014 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Sydney Storm
015 David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com] Action in Sydney at 18:30PM
016 Halden Boyd [halden at lis.net.au] Sydney Action
017 "Adam Mayo" [oyam at bigpond.com] Sydney Storm
018 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au] Sydney Storm
019 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Action in Sydney started 18:30PM
020 Susan Puddifer [susanpud at healey.com.au] Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out
021 "Adam Mayo" [oyam at bigpond.com] Sydney Storm
022 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Sydney Storm
023 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] yet another one
024 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] NSW storms
025 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Sydney storms
026 Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org] Hailstorm in North Ryde...
027 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Sydney storms
028 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] LI values
029 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] AMOS Weatherwatch meeting 29th September 1999
030 "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au] Great Day, Sorry, New Email
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 08:44:56 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow, and borderline conditions etc
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>I've recently got my August 14 Oberon snow chase photos back (Sorry, I
>don't have a scanner so I can't post them although I could get copies
>done if folk are interested) and they are not too bad.
I, for one, am certainly interested!
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
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002
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Thunder heard
Date: Sun, 22 Aug 1999 10:00:09 +1000
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At 1:30AM this morning I heard a solitary distant rumble of thunder from
Wollongong. Quite a novelty - I'm ready for more!
Andrew.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
-----Original Message-----
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Tuesday, 21 September 1999 20:10
Subject: aus-wx: Thunder heard
>Hi,
>
>Whilst talking to Mario (a new member) on the phone, we discussed the weak
>storms that developed this afternoon on the ranges. Some heavy showers as
>these were quite shallow. These are your typical upper cold air type of
>thunderstorms. The anvils spread out in most directions although the rear
>flanking line was quite reasonable. There must have been some heavy showers
>in areas where these developed and matured but they dissipated later. I
>have taken 3 photos...
>
>With regards to the system in Victoria and southern NSW, I am more excited
>about this system than most that have come through, It is aligned north
>south. I like those... I think some good action can be expected over the
>next few days
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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003
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out the window
Date: Sun, 22 Aug 1999 10:12:53 +1000
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Hey Lindsay,
>Oberon, I think, around 3/1/00
Hey, watch out, the above line is Y2K prone! hehehe
Um, good spots - depends what the weather's doing. If there's storms around
the ranges then it's often good to go out to a place called Roslyn, 1/2 an
hour SW of Taralga. It's high on the western side of the range and you can
see for absolutely miles. That's where I went last time it snowed (view was
a little whited out though). That's only 1/2 an hour out of your way if you
go to Goulburn via there.
There's also some spots with nice views to the east, but not as far out...if
I think of anything relevant I'll let you know.
If you're looking for a good coffee shop, I can recomend 'Honey Suckle'
cottage on the main street - my Mum owns it!
Um, let me know if you want anything more specific...
Andrew.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
-----Original Message-----
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Tuesday, 21 September 1999 17:32
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head
out the window
>Interesting Andrew,
>
>We had rain last night, it started out as cold mist/low cloud (around 5
>degrees) and then some heavier but brief showers came in. Only two and a
>half mm in the gauge this morning (tuesday) though. Overcast and very
>light rain/trace falls just now.
>
>Lindsay P.
>PS: We are thinking about driving through your area (Taralga) on our way
>to our Christmas holidays this year (Burril Lakes). Any nice spots in
>particular we could check out on the way through? We are coming via
>Oberon, I think, around 3/1/00
>
>drew Miskelly wrote:
>>
>> ...and for those interested it hasn't stopped raining here all night so
far.
>> On the radar there os a nice little patch over wollongong and to the
east.
>>
>> IDF05N04
>> ILLAWARRA
>> Tonight
>> Fine. Cool with light to moderate south to southeast winds.
>>
>> --
>> Andrew Miskelly
>> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
>> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Michael Thompson
>> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>> Date: Monday, 20 September 1999 21:56
>> Subject: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head
out
>> the window
>>
>> >Controversy corner.
>> >
>> >Am I the only one that thinks that modern near forecasting ( weather in
>> next
>> >few hours ) has become far too model and chart orientated to the point
that
>> >the view outside the window is even ignored.
>> >
>> >Today is a case in point. The morning forecast from BOM for Illawarra
was
>> >for Fine. In reality at 8am I was highly interested in a suspicious
cloud
>> >bank to the east. During the morning some weak Cu built to the SE. The
>> 11.30
>> >update forecast now said partly cloudy. Good I thought the BOM has been
>> >watching. The Cu during the afternoon thickened rapidly, showers were
>> >evident a short distance out to sea from about 2pm. At 4pm the first
shower
>> >fell in Wollongong. Amazing the BOM 4.30pm forecast came out as FINE !
At
>> >5.30pm a quite heavy shower occurred in Wollongong.
>> >
>> >The Northern Illawarra is in "looking" distance from the BOM. The
weather
>> >outside the BOM window to the SE would have revealed rapidly building Cu
in
>> >the SE flow, so why stick to a forecast that is going to obviously
wrong.
>> >
>> >I suppose the prime example was the Sydney Hailstorm.
>> >
>> >Don't get me wrong I am not having a dig at models, in fact I am a avid
>> >model watcher. But I always rely on visual over anything else for near
>> >forecasts.
>> >
>> >Michael Thompson
>> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
>> >
>> >
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>> > message.
>> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>> >
>>
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>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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004
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 09:50:48 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out the window
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Thanks Andrew,
Some good info there.
We will certainly check out your mum's cottage, if we get a chance,
sounds good to me.
Look forward to travelling down that way.
Lindsay P.
Andrew Miskelly wrote:
>
> Hey Lindsay,
>
> >Oberon, I think, around 3/1/00
>
> Hey, watch out, the above line is Y2K prone! hehehe
>
> Um, good spots - depends what the weather's doing. If there's storms around
> the ranges then it's often good to go out to a place called Roslyn, 1/2 an
> hour SW of Taralga. It's high on the western side of the range and you can
> see for absolutely miles. That's where I went last time it snowed (view was
> a little whited out though). That's only 1/2 an hour out of your way if you
> go to Goulburn via there.
>
> There's also some spots with nice views to the east, but not as far out...if
> I think of anything relevant I'll let you know.
>
> If you're looking for a good coffee shop, I can recomend 'Honey Suckle'
> cottage on the main street - my Mum owns it!
>
> Um, let me know if you want anything more specific...
>
> Andrew.
>
> --
> Andrew Miskelly
> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Lindsay
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Tuesday, 21 September 1999 17:32
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head
> out the window
>
> >Interesting Andrew,
> >
> >We had rain last night, it started out as cold mist/low cloud (around 5
> >degrees) and then some heavier but brief showers came in. Only two and a
> >half mm in the gauge this morning (tuesday) though. Overcast and very
> >light rain/trace falls just now.
> >
> >Lindsay P.
> >PS: We are thinking about driving through your area (Taralga) on our way
> >to our Christmas holidays this year (Burril Lakes). Any nice spots in
> >particular we could check out on the way through? We are coming via
> >Oberon, I think, around 3/1/00
> >
> >drew Miskelly wrote:
> >>
> >> ...and for those interested it hasn't stopped raining here all night so
> far.
> >> On the radar there os a nice little patch over wollongong and to the
> east.
> >>
> >> IDF05N04
> >> ILLAWARRA
> >> Tonight
> >> Fine. Cool with light to moderate south to southeast winds.
> >>
> >> --
> >> Andrew Miskelly
> >> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> >> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> >>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Michael Thompson
> >> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >> Date: Monday, 20 September 1999 21:56
> >> Subject: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head
> out
> >> the window
> >>
> >> >Controversy corner.
> >> >
> >> >Am I the only one that thinks that modern near forecasting ( weather in
> >> next
> >> >few hours ) has become far too model and chart orientated to the point
> that
> >> >the view outside the window is even ignored.
> >> >
> >> >Today is a case in point. The morning forecast from BOM for Illawarra
> was
> >> >for Fine. In reality at 8am I was highly interested in a suspicious
> cloud
> >> >bank to the east. During the morning some weak Cu built to the SE. The
> >> 11.30
> >> >update forecast now said partly cloudy. Good I thought the BOM has been
> >> >watching. The Cu during the afternoon thickened rapidly, showers were
> >> >evident a short distance out to sea from about 2pm. At 4pm the first
> shower
> >> >fell in Wollongong. Amazing the BOM 4.30pm forecast came out as FINE !
> At
> >> >5.30pm a quite heavy shower occurred in Wollongong.
> >> >
> >> >The Northern Illawarra is in "looking" distance from the BOM. The
> weather
> >> >outside the BOM window to the SE would have revealed rapidly building Cu
> in
> >> >the SE flow, so why stick to a forecast that is going to obviously
> wrong.
> >> >
> >> >I suppose the prime example was the Sydney Hailstorm.
> >> >
> >> >Don't get me wrong I am not having a dig at models, in fact I am a avid
> >> >model watcher. But I always rely on visual over anything else for near
> >> >forecasts.
> >> >
> >> >Michael Thompson
> >> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
> >> >
> >> >
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> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >> > message.
> >> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >> >
> >>
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> >
> >
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> >
>
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005
From: "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au]
To: "Aussie Weather Digest (E-mail)" [aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Weather forecasts. What's wrong with sticking your head out the window...
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 08:42:59 +1000
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Michael, just a couple of necessarily qualitative points on this..
First, I'm not absolutely convinced that "looking" out the window and
extrapolating is always such a useful forecasting method on it's own. To
substantiate, my understanding is that the Bureau's experience is that
revised forecasts (so for example the revision of a max temp forecast in the
morning from the previous nights forecast) are only marginally more skilful
than the forecasts issued the previous night - that is looking out the
window in the morning often provides little or even misleading information.
Another piece of evidence come from the new statistical forecast generation
system in the Bureau which is based entirely on model output, and which in
preliminary testing has been shown to give more accurate forecasts than
humans. Obviously, if the forecast is for fine and the radar shows
widespread rainfall then observations are going to significantly improve the
forecast, but most cases are not this clear cut.
The other consideration is cost. Forecasts updated/revised by humans are
very time demanding, and consequently expensive. A real question is whether
the user is willing to pay the extra cost for what might only be a minor
improvement in quality?
I
________
Dr David Jones ( ___)
( )
Climate Analysis Section () )
National Climate Centre ( ) )
Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 ( )__ )
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 (________)_)
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425 .... ..
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au .... ..
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006
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 11:24:26 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather forecasts. What's wrong with sticking your head out the window...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
This thread is proving to be more useful that at first glance...
My $0.02 worth...
I agree with David that a balance between sticking one's
head out the window and looking at models gives a better
result. I am also heartened by some success with statistical
techniques since that represents one of the core techniques
in my own forecasting. Forecasting skill also depends on
whether you just want to stick to your "window-observational"
limits or go further afield. Unfortunately, I am rarely in
the position where I need to do my own forecast for my local
Sydney weekend unless some critical outdoor activity depends
on it. Most of my effort is directed toward the Snowy
Mountains region where I have varying degrees of success.
Let me summarise my findings:
1) If I were to rely solely on the models, then, as an
example, Perisher Valley would have recorded only 60cm
of snow cover this year. Maximum cover in reality was
double that at least. Statistical correction of precip
forecasts that I apply has resulted in both stunning
quantitative forecasts (3 major snowfalls predicted
to within 5cm of reality) and stunning failures (I
over-estimated the amount of rain that would fall
recently).
2) When on-site, I achieve no additional skill in this
area by observation alone, but when I can obtain the
latest model output, I can correllate this with observations
and thus deduce what really happened and what is about to
happen. I tend to think in abstractions by visualising the
big picture then drill down to the detail.
3) I actually think that severe thunderstorms are easier
to predict by observation on the day since there are some
obvious indicators. It is akin to predicting convective
lift while at Bathurst Soaring Club. Look around and there
are obvious signs of convection (thermals), caps (inversions)
etc. The tug plane can give a rough sounding on its first
run, combine that with a stack of statistical local knowledge
and bingo, the day can be reliably predicted given an
up-to-date, properly corrected model temp/RH metrogram.
4) My final point: No model is useful unless it is taken
through a post-mortem. One task that I regularly do is
to quickly examine how the models have faired at the +72hr
forecast. What did they get right and wrong and why? This
gives me a feel for the model skill in general and also
whether my particular case (Snowy Mountains) was dealt with
adequately. This task is simply a matter of noting actual
precip and temperature observations, and sketching the
major synoptic feature changes with synoptic obs. Takes
no more that 5 minutes using obs data at hand. Hate to try
and do this for the forecast scope of the BoM! With the
medium/long range stuff, I look for the timing of major
feature changes with respect to obs. I've found this
very useful this year in the case of that blocking high
scenario. During early winter, medium range models were
all over the place, but by end of season, it seems that
medium range model skill has improved. I think this has
something to do with the folding in and stabilisation
of SST obs. What I mean is that a crazy (widely varying)
SST obs leads to a crazy medium/long range forecast.
When the SST stabilises, it seems that the medium/long
range forecasting skill also improves as one would expect.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
P.S. the "Michael" below is Michael Thompsom:-) There are
many Michael's...
Dr David Jones wrote on Wed, 22 Sep 1999 08:42:59 +1000:
>
> Michael, just a couple of necessarily qualitative points
> on this..
>
> First, I'm not absolutely convinced that "looking" out the
> window and extrapolating is always such a useful forecasting
> method on it's own. To substantiate, my understanding is that
> the Bureau's experience is that revised forecasts (so for
> example the revision of a max temp forecast in the morning
> from the previous nights forecast) are only marginally more
> skilful than the forecasts issued the previous night - that
> is looking out the window in the morning often provides little
> or even misleading information. Another piece of evidence come
> from the new statistical forecast generation system in the
> Bureau which is based entirely on model output, and which in
> preliminary testing has been shown to give more accurate
> forecasts than humans. Obviously, if the forecast is for fine
> and the radar shows widespread rainfall then observations are
> going to significantly improve the forecast, but most cases
> are not this clear cut.
>
> The other consideration is cost. Forecasts updated/revised
> by humans are very time demanding, and consequently expensive.
> A real question is whether the user is willing to pay the extra
> cost for what might only be a minor improvement in quality?
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007
X-Originating-IP: [139.134.250.147]
From: "Daniel Weatherhead" [dpw14 at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather forecasts. What's wrong with sticking your head out the
window...
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 11:59:32 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey everyone
I am sure that Michael T didn't mean that we should give away model
forecasting or all the technological wizardry that gives us radar, great sat
pics and replace them with eye on the sky forecasting. More along the lines
that you can't trust what you see on a computer screen all the time. Even,
the BOM guy who came to an AMOS meeting, said they still get their best
forecasts and information from spotters, and only a budget equivalent to the
space program would change that.
I agree with MT that sometimes the BOM seems to be oblivious about what is
going on around them. Sometimes there can be heavy rain west of parramatta,
and the headline for the forecast can be fine and dry, if it isn't raining
in sydney. Or often a storm will stay out west and it isn't mentioned at all
in their forecast, and in their updated forcasts either.
We all know the radar isn't perfect. It doen't pick up what it should
especially if their is heavy rain falling in the area, or some sort of
geographical obstruction. So if you rely on this equipment you will miss
something somewhere.
Saying all that i know that the BOM area severely under funded for the area
they have to forecast for, and under manned.
Anyway, just some thoughts.
===========================
Daniel Weatherhead
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
Blaxland, NSW
===========================
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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008
X-Originating-IP: [210.9.51.34]
From: "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney looking good ?
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 12:19:51 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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If the latest forecast is anything to go by.....
Sydney Metropolitan: For remainder of today and Thursday
Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly in
the west.
Mild days with cloudy periods.
Light to moderate northwest to northeast winds, freshening on the
coast in the afternoon.
Precis Forecasts and Temperatures for Thursday :
Sydney Chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms.
Min: 13 Max: 22
Liverpool Chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms
Min: 10 Max: 23
Richmond Chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms
Min: 09 Max: 24
Headline : Chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Cloudy
periods. NW/NE winds.
Friday : Chance afternoon showers/thunderstorms. NW/NE winds.
City: Min: 14 Max: 23
Saturday : Shower or two. Chance thunderstorms. NE/SE winds.
City: Min: 14 Max: 23
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
009
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 13:58:32 +1000
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather forecasts. What's wrong with sticking your head out
the window...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey Michael, Everyone..
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
> 4) My final point: No model is useful unless it is taken
> through a post-mortem. One task that I regularly do is
> to quickly examine how the models have faired at the +72hr
> forecast.
I do something similar to this every time i load up the models (in any
major system).. First thing i do is verify the models analysis..
sometimes, not very often, but sometimes the models analysis can be way
off.. and if the model starts off on the wrong foot, then it's forecasts
are not much good to me..
Just something that i think anyone who follows the models should do..
especially if the models are a little unorganised/hard to forecast
with..
--
**************************************************
* Ben Quinn
* The Brisbane Storm Chasers Homepage
* http://www.bsch.simplenet.com
* The NEMAS wx Education Section
* http://www.nemas.net
* The Australian Weather Pages Webring
* http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/ben/webring/index.htm
*
***************************************************
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010
From: peter.corlett at doi.vic.gov.au
X-Lotus-FromDomain: DOI
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 16:29:04 +1100
Subject: aus-wx: Spring Party: Melbourne!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Dear all,
To celebrate the arrival of spring, the end of the football
season, and my advancing age, I'm having a party. All ASWA people who will be in
the Melbourne area next Saturday afternoon are invited to attend. Food and drink
will be provided.
It won't be an exclusively ASWA event, but feel free to bring along any photos
or video that you want to share.
Of course, there will be some piddling little sporting event on at the
time.........
If you can come, please call me in the evenings on 9380 5666 or email me at home
at pjcorlett at aol.com and I'll give you all the details.
Cheers,
Pete.
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011
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 1999 22:38:36 -0700 (PDT)
From: David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com]
Subject: aus-wx: NSW sev. storm advice 15:27
To: aussie- weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Go Michael T!!!
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1527 on Wednesday the 22nd of September 1999
This advice affects people in the following weather
districts:
Illawarra,
Southern Tablelands north of Goulburn
Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area from
3:30 pm until 8 pm.
Some of these are expected to be severe, bringing
large hailstones, very
heavy rain and strong winds.
Hail large enough to damage cars and roofing was
reported from High Range in
the Mittagong area at about 3pm [this particular storm
has now weakened].
The STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE advises that as storms
approach people should:
* put vehicles under cover
* move indoors away from windows
During and after storms people should:
* take extreme care when driving
* beware of fallen trees and power lines
If your house is damaged contact your local State
Emergency Service unit,
listed under "S" in the White Pages, for emergency
assistance. Don't use the
telephone during storms.
TV CRAWL: Severe Thunderstorm Advice current for
Southern Tablelands north
of Goulburn and Illawarra.
NOT FOR BROADCAST: This advice message is valid until
8pm. The Bureau and
SES would appreciate it being broadcast regularly
until this time.
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Bid and sell for free at http://auctions.yahoo.com
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012
From: "Adam Mayo" [oyam at bigpond.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Storm
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 18:33:02 +1000
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Hello Everyone,
Great Lightning display at Mona Vale, NSW, you
guys should be here. We can see the storm but it appears to be crossing
the coast about Dee Why, from the Radar. We have a few planes flying loops
over our house at the moment, the airport must be affected again.
Judy Mayo.
013
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 18:40:50 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Action in Sydney at 18:30PM
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Radar's looking good as storm cells have just started to track to
the NE from around Parramatta against the environmental norm
for most cells in the previous hour. Precip rates are 40-100mm/hr
with the cell(s) heading toward Hornsby/North Shore. Get the
camera's out!
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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014
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 18:50:44 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Adam Mayo wrote:
>
> Hello Everyone,
>
> Great Lightning display at Mona Vale, NSW, you guys should be here.
> We can see the storm but it appears to be crossing the coast about
> Dee Why, from the Radar. We have a few planes flying loops over
> our house at the moment, the airport must be affected again.
Interesting call Judy. Currently in the city there's decent thunder
going on. 18:30 radar shows the main intensity of the precip in the
area between Bankstown and Hornsby, right over Parramatta. Airport
seems minimally affected unless there's a 'nader touching down:-)
I hope not:-( Around Dee Why, your in the main updraft area of the
storm. This one is really looking good now.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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015
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 02:01:23 -0700 (PDT)
From: David Croan [bustchase at yahoo.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Action in Sydney at 18:30PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
--- Michael Scollay
wrote:
> Radar's looking good as storm cells have just
> started to track to
> the NE from around Parramatta against the
> environmental norm
> for most cells in the previous hour. Precip rates
> are 40-100mm/hr
> with the cell(s) heading toward Hornsby/North Shore.
> Get the
> camera's out!
Yes Michael very spectacular these cells. I watched
the earlier cell over the Sutherland area from Gordon
as a powerful looking updraft shot up to my west (over
Parramatta I suppose) on the northern edge of the
system. Intense lightning and a mean gustfront was
evident just b4 sunset. The whole thing was very meaty
looking...quite impressive. I noticed on the last
radar scan (18:40) a nice patch of red heading towards
the North Shore / Nthn beaches and right now the
thunder is getting quite loud here at Beacon Hill.
David
__________________________________________________
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Bid and sell for free at http://auctions.yahoo.com
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016
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Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 19:29:45 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Halden Boyd [halden at lis.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Action
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Looks like you guys had some great action in Sydney this evening! It
appears the area north/northeast of Chastwood copped the brunt of it.
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017
From: "Adam Mayo" [oyam at bigpond.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Storm
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 19:39:37 +1000
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Hello Again,
Lightning and thunder now just about continual,
some small hail started falling at about 19.30 and lasted around 5 minutes. The
main part of the storm still isn't affecting us. In fact it is still l6
degrees outside. I wonder how the Olympic
Site made out this time. When the car comes home from Homebush, we will go
out to Bilgola Headland and have a look at the lightning.
Judy Mayo
018
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 20:02:07 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Storm
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Re: aus-wx: Sydney Storm
Thanks for the update Adam but where are you?
MH
----------
From: "Adam Mayo" <oyam at bigpond.com>[BR]
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>[BR]
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Storm
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 7:39 PM
Hello Again,
Lightning and thunder now just about continual, some small hail started falling at about 19.30 and lasted around 5 minutes. The main part of the storm still isn't affecting us. In fact it is still l6 degrees outside. I wonder how the Olympic Site made out this time. When the car comes home from Homebush, we will go out to Bilgola Headland and have a look at the lightning.
Judy Mayo
019
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 20:38:17 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Action in Sydney started 18:30PM
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Cells that tracked from Bankstown NE through Homebush at
max intensity 08:40UTC (bullseye Olympic site!) then
through the North Shore escarpment at about Killara/
Lindfield, snuffed out by a really decent cool E/NE
wind in the updraft area while over Oxford falls area
at 09:20UTC and slightly intensified over Dee Why/ Mona
Vale at 9:30UTC now moving out to sea.
Other cell(s) are also intensifying almost along the
same track as the above cell(s) at 09:40UTC, also
hammering Homebush at 09:50UTC that recorded 20mm by
09:45UTC, 30mm by 10:00UTC and no update after that!
The North Shore suburbs got a drenching from these
cells and no more are developing in their wake.
It looks like the famous September low-precip average
is about to get raised:-) This is not a good omen for
that glorious spring Sydney 2000 Olympics weather
unless an El Nino locks in early:-( Current ENSO
forecasts place this as unlikely with a continuing
La Nina phase forecast into late 2000.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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020
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 18:59:39 +1000
From: Susan Puddifer [susanpud at healey.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 (Macintosh; I; PPC)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather Forecasts: What's wrong with sticking your head out the window
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Susan from Balmain
At the moment - 7pm Wednesday - we are having torrential rain and pea sized
hail - significant number of cgs and lots of lovely rumbling noises - almost
constant lightning
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021
From: "Adam Mayo" [oyam at bigpond.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Storm
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 20:43:55 +1000
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Hi Mark,
We are at Mona Vale in Government Road, we have had a lull for about 30
minutes but now the thunder and lightning are back. Frank has just come
from Homebush where torrential rain appears to have fixed the action at the
Archery Field. The scanner is now saying that there is golf ball size hail
covering the road at the corner of Mona Vale Road and Forest Way at Terry
Hills, and the police force seems reluctant to let their men conduct traffic
control in the open. There is also a serious accident at that corner with
one car on its roof. The hail is now getting much bigger and is about 1
inch across. There are numerous sets of traffic lights out all over this
area and at Seaforth and Manly the scanner has reported larger than golf
ball sized hail.
Judy Mayo.
You Guys should be here!!!!
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022
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Date: Thu, 23 Sep 1999 21:00:32 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Myself and Daniel Weatherhead watched this storm from the start,
photos/report will be up later, but
*Have the whole storm development on video (not from scratch, had to stop
it now and then incase the battery went dead) but yeah any change in
development was taken on video
*lots of photos taken by both of us
*small hail at UWS
*big hail shafts/rainbow with that shadowything where its dark on one side
and light on the other side of the rainbow on video and film,(very
photogenic!)
*some big updraughts on this thing as it got more and more organised as it
moved off the ranges, we both noted a change in wind direction close to
sunset which blew over our tripids/cameras but we managed to catch
them(thank god!)
*tried some lightning photos, and some nice bolts caught on video
*mean looking roll cloud type thing close to sunset, and something that
looked like it had rotation, Jimmy saw it as well and whilst on the phone
he said it looked like a tornado could come out at any minute
*Beaver tail/big inflow cloud at dark but lite up by lightning on video,
looked like something you would see from the states!
Anyway i have a 6am start, and i have to do some other things (like wash
the dishes for mum *sigh*)
Ill get stuff done ASAP, but not for 2-3 days at least (work etc)
cya's!
A very very happy
Matthew Smith
ASWA Committee Member
----------Storm Chase Reports and Photos:---------
------http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm-----
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023
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Date: Thu, 23 Sep 1999 21:07:23 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: yet another one
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Another cell has developed near bankstown, i just heard thunder from it.
what a day!
Matt Smith
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024
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: NSW storms
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 21:01:38 +1000
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My cousin rang from Guerilla Bay (south of Batemans Bay) to report small
hail and an impressive gust front between 1730 & 1800 and our office in
Alexandria reported thunder & very heavy rain at 1807.
Jane
-------------------------------------------------------
Jane ONeill
ASWA - Victoria
Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA Inc.)
Melbourne Storm Chasers
Email: cadence at rubix.net.au
-------------------------------------------------------
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025
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Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 21:10:54 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I will leave the description of the storms to those who were closer to it.
We didn't even get a drop of rain here. But boy did I rip into the photos
and video. Most of the activity began after 4pm and then the storms began
to enter the Metro area around 5pm onwards. Hail has been reported from
many suburbs. At one stage the rear flanking line looked very interesting
with a nice inflow band. I tried to get photos and video of the lightning
and the structure of the cloud but I wonder how it went. Next video night
guys!!!! I am now charging the batteries. They all went flat. I suppose I
have used the other one recently and it went for about 20 minutes flat. I
hope they don't do the dirty on me again... I also found it a little
frustrating that I got a few phone calls whilst I was supposed to take
video. Well I took video whilst on a call during the most active section of
the storm. I also attempted a lightning photograph which I hope will come
out ok... The shutter remained open until lightning flashed out and then
the shutter closed. It was an 8 second exposure ....
Anyway, the activity has gradually moved towards the coast with some spots
of hail persisting. Some hail in the severe range have been reported.
Another storm system has developed during the late evening and night period
around 8 - 9pm and is heading towards the Central Coast.
One of the interesting features about the storms today and so far this
season is that they have ventured more from the W and NW than the SW.
Something different for a change.
We will see what happens over the next few days.
Jimmy Deguara
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026
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 07:07:45 -0500 (CDT)
From: Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Hailstorm in North Ryde...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone,
The first cell of the evening only produced pea sized hail here in
North Ryde, but plenty of spectacular lightning. The second cell produced
significantly larger hail with most stones around the 1.5cm mark and one I
found to be 2cm (I measured with a ruler) in diameter with a few others of
a similar size which I reported to the Bureau.
Not much wind, but I noticed on the radar, this second cell seemed
to back-off to a more northerly course as it approached my area.
There seem to be some other cells over the mountains but they are
probably weakening...
- Paul.
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027
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Sydney storms
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 22:04:35 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components Pty Ltd
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Call from family in Sydney at approx 8:00pm, very excited, 3rd storm today,
close to cricket ball size hail falling in Gladesville. (I could hear it in
the background - I told them to get off the phone)...
(Account might be a touch exagerated).
John.
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028
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Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 22:41:49 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: LI values
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Is this really true?? There seems to be a lot of action occurring near
Sydney expected over the next few days. If the storms go high I can say
there will be some damaging hailstorms. All we need is a little warmth....
The LI values for Saturday look incredible and I hope the action stays
within the vicinity and doesn't escape...
The way it looked this evening, it seems there will be more storms
developing tomorrow. I would say the area to the north and northwest of
Sydney is the target area but I can say that Sydney should see some action
as well......
Jimmy Deguara
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029
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
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Date: Wed, 22 Sep 1999 21:32:48 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, aussie-weather at world.std.com,
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: AMOS Weatherwatch meeting 29th September 1999
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi those in NSW or visiting NSW,
The next AMOS Weatherwatch meeting (not ASWA) is to be held on 29th
September 1999. The topic for discussion will be the "Plotting and
interpreting upper level charts". It will be held at Macquarie University
Room E5A - 143 and begins at 7:30pm. And yes, the storms this evening will
be discussed!!!!
I would suggest, as we have done in the past, support this meeting and also
you will meet up with others and learn a few things.
Please note for those that have never attended, it will be held in Room E5A
- 143. Please don't forget to take change in dollar coins as parking gets
charged at $1 per hour up to 4 hours max per day. And they do check and
book people at night. There are machines in all the car parks so purchase
the ticket and then park.
Jimmy Deguara
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
030
From: "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Great Day, Sorry, New Email
Date: Thu, 23 Sep 1999 23:09:09 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Everyone
Well what a great day. Matt Smith and myself chased from 1pm onwards and
basically saw the storm from start to finsh. There is so much to tell, it
will take a few days to go thru and write down. It was one of the more
memorable chases i have been on. I am going to Melbourne this weekend so it
was good to get some storms before i left. Photos, and a chase report will
follow in the next few days i think.
Once again i am sorry about the multiple emails. My reaction to this, i have
terminatedmy lucrative sponsorship with HotMail, and taken up a more
discreet deal with Ozemail. My address is
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
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| Document: 990922.htm
Updated: 13 October 1999 |
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