Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx]
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Saturday, 16 October 1999

    From                                           Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]            Raging Planet
002 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]           Come on - not Sydney again
003 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]        Ski season not dead yet?
004 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Strato - Cumulus chase is on
005 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]           Strato - Cumulus chase is on
006 "Andrew McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au]        Victorian Situation Sunday 17/10
007 Jason Bobbin [jason at jbobbin.waite.adelaide.ed  Spare CPU cycles for climate change prediction
008 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]           Spare CPU cycles for climate change prediction
009 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]         Northern NSW storms Sat arvo
010 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]            Strato - Cumulus chase is on
011 Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]            NSW Severe Thunderstorm Advice & obs
012 "Rod Aikman" [raikman at hotmail.com]             TV Interview
013 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]           TV Interview
014 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Strato - Cumulus chase is on
015 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Come on - not Sydney again

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 08:24:29 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Raging Planet
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Andrew and Kathryn

I've been pretty inconspicuous lately - computer died!

I'm wondering whether either of you taped the tornado Raging Planet last
Monday.  I watched it and it had some of the best footage I'd ever seen.
Perhaps if you did get a copy I can borrow it sometime and dub it?

Cheers


Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2


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002
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Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 09:26:58 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Come on - not Sydney again
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Checking the LI values and the wind profile for Monday, it seems that 
Sydney will be in storm heaven. We will see what happens with the not so 
good mid-level moisture profile  - ie perhaps a tad too much mid-level 
moisture..

Stayed tuned

Jimmy Deguara

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003
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aus-wx: Ski season not dead yet?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 11:42:02 +1000 (EST)
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Both the GASP and ECMWF models have some very cold air (for this
time of year) coming up to affect SE Australia on Friday - although
they get to this scenario by rather different routes (ECMWF has a
Tasman Sea low early in the week, GASP doesn't). Thicknesses are 
progged to be in the 530-534 range in Melbourne at 1200Z on Friday.
If this happens it will be comfortably enough for snow on the
mountains.

GASP then pushes the cold air north into NSW on Saturday (sub-540
reaching the Northern Tablelands). Could be some interest on the
higher parts of the Central and Northern Tablelands if it happens.

Blair Trewin
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004
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Strato - Cumulus chase is on
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 12:37:10 +1000
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Perfect Sc chase conditions here in the Illawarra. Last nights models
indicated CAPE of 0 and Lift Index of +5 or 6. The only worry would be that
if winds stayed NE we might get some mositure. However I was delighted to
see that the SE ( Storm Eradicator ) came through at 5am, this is perfect
timing as it stabilises all the lower atmosphere before the sun even gets a
chance.

>From daylight until now at 12.30pm we have had perfect strato-cumulus
conditions, the bases are even at a moderate level thus completely taking
away the risk of drizzle. There has been no convection what so ever,  Sc
heaven. The only worry is the sun line has been located approx 10-20 km
offshore, the Sc has been patchy since 11am, however my Sc chase experience
tells me that the sun line will retreat back out towards the eastern horizon
as the afternoon progresses.

The great thing about Sc chasing is that I don't even have to risk 1cent of
fuel to get to the best position. It has been a great Sc season so far in
the Illawarra, I have yet to that dreaded thunder noise.



Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com


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005
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Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 12:57:02 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strato - Cumulus chase is on
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

You might say stratocumulus heaven but this morning, I saw large cumulus 
west of the gong... There is instability and I can say quite some 
interesting times for the Hunter and near the Blue Mtns

You are in the thick of it on Monday

Jimmy Deguara


At 12:37 16/10/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Perfect Sc chase conditions here in the Illawarra. Last nights models
>indicated CAPE of 0 and Lift Index of +5 or 6. The only worry would be that
>if winds stayed NE we might get some mositure. However I was delighted to
>see that the SE ( Storm Eradicator ) came through at 5am, this is perfect
>timing as it stabilises all the lower atmosphere before the sun even gets a
>chance.
>
> From daylight until now at 12.30pm we have had perfect strato-cumulus
>conditions, the bases are even at a moderate level thus completely taking
>away the risk of drizzle. There has been no convection what so ever,  Sc
>heaven. The only worry is the sun line has been located approx 10-20 km
>offshore, the Sc has been patchy since 11am, however my Sc chase experience
>tells me that the sun line will retreat back out towards the eastern horizon
>as the afternoon progresses.
>
>The great thing about Sc chasing is that I don't even have to risk 1cent of
>fuel to get to the best position. It has been a great Sc season so far in
>the Illawarra, I have yet to that dreaded thunder noise.
>
>
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://thunder.simplenet.com
>
>
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006
From: "Andrew McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian Situation Sunday 17/10
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 13:17:13 +1000
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Afternoon All,

I don't think I've ever replied to my own emails before (its kinda like
talking to myself - hehehe).

Well I think I can forget the idea of chasing tomorrow.  Looks as though
AVN and MRF have weakened the system significantly enough to warn off any
potential chasers from Victoria unless they are willing to drive to NSW for
a few days (and I'm not doing that!!!).

As Blair mentioned, it looks like we could be in for a significant cold
outbreak later in the coming week.  MRF and GASP suggest a significantly
low thickness.  I think GASP puts it at about 530 and MRF looks to go down
to about 532.  Either way we should see some nice cold air cells in the
cold pool behind the front.  If the cold pool is to track a long way N as
was suggested then NSW and QLD could see a significant outbreak of severe
weather.  This is still a while away but could be possible.

Now just to keep the Victorians in summer storm mode (although we will be
back to winter this week), I think we could possibly see some action around
the 27th, 28th of October.  Yes - I know that is a long long way off but it
doesn't matter - if they are doing models out to 9 days then i can't see
why i can't forecast out 10 days.

Andrew McDonald.

----------
> From: Andrew McDonald 
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Victorian Situation Sunday 17/10
> Date: Thursday, 14 October 1999 19:29
> 
> Morning All,
> 
> Just having a flick through a few models and I thought - yeah - i'll
check
> the LI's for sunday with the forecast of possible thunderstorms.  Well
> paint me green and call me gumby but DAMN they look good.  I can't access
> the AVN site ATM so I am going on MRF figures and MRF has an area of -7
to
> -8 in North Central Victoria at 10pm Sunday night (imagine what they
would
> be during the day).  I currently have to work Sunday night but if things
> look good tomorrow morning I am going to get out of work and chase Sunday
> (if i can have a car).  
> 
> Basically I'm after a general opinion on what others think of the
situation
> (and those with AVN can give us (me) and idea of LI's and CAPE during the
> day sunday).  Any information would be greatly appreciated.  For those of
> you who have read the chase report from the 10/10 you probably would've
> seen the bit where I mention that chases should be organised earlier if
> possible - I am trying to organise this one early so we can get some
> thinking happening.  There is no certainty that I"m going to be able to
get
> a car or get out of work yet but I thought people might like to know that
> the thought of a chase is there.
> 
> BoM have a front effecting S Vic later in the day with a trough effecting
> the N of the state.  LI's of -5 to -7 extend almost across the whole
> central area of the state on the 10pm map so it might be OK here in
> Melbourne too.  
> 
> Melbourne had a general thunderstorm warning issued this morning and a
nice
> cell dumped some heavyish rain right on the CBD with Yellow and Green
> sitting on the city for about 20 mins.  Not much happening now though.
> 
> Thanks
> 
> Andrew McDonald
> 
> (Macca)
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007
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 13:55:45 +0930
From: Jason Bobbin [jason at jbobbin.waite.adelaide.edu.au]
Organization: University of Adelaide
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (X11; I; Linux 2.2.10 i686)
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To: weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Spare CPU cycles for climate change prediction
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I think I have only posted once to this list - I read a lot of the
messages but don't have too much time to post stuff. Anyhow, I just saw
this on slashdot which might be of interest to people here. A climate
researcher is asking people to donate spare CPU cylces to help make
accurate climate predictions. The system is similar to the SETI at Home
project where people use software to analyse radio telescope data for
regularities which might indicate extra terrestrials. Your computer just
needs to be left turned on and connected to the internet, so probably
not for your home computer. Instead of a screensaver, your computer runs
part of a climate model and sends the results back via the internet. The
BBC story is at:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_473000/473856.stm

and the project home page is at

http://www.climate-dynamics.rl.ac.uk/

Cheers,
Jason.

-- 
Jason Bobbin                 Phone: ++61 (0)8 83037284
Dept. of Soil and Water      Fax:   ++61 (0)8 83036511 
The University of Adelaide   Email: jason.bobbin at waite.adelaide.edu.au
Glen Osmond, SA              URL: http://jbobbin.waite.adelaide.edu.au
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008
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
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Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 14:35:33 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Spare CPU cycles for climate change prediction
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Great idea Jason. Unfortunately, I don't have minimum of 3 hours at a time 
before I can get disconnected.

But if people can help with this, I think it is a great idea. I myself 
don't believe in the extra-dream terrestial - hehe

Jimmy Deguara

At 13:55 16/10/99 +0930, you wrote:
>I think I have only posted once to this list - I read a lot of the
>messages but don't have too much time to post stuff. Anyhow, I just saw
>this on slashdot which might be of interest to people here. A climate
>researcher is asking people to donate spare CPU cylces to help make
>accurate climate predictions. The system is similar to the SETI at Home
>project where people use software to analyse radio telescope data for
>regularities which might indicate extra terrestrials. Your computer just
>needs to be left turned on and connected to the internet, so probably
>not for your home computer. Instead of a screensaver, your computer runs
>part of a climate model and sends the results back via the internet. The
>BBC story is at:
>
>http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_473000/473856.stm
>
>and the project home page is at
>
>http://www.climate-dynamics.rl.ac.uk/
>
>Cheers,
>Jason.
>
>--
>Jason Bobbin                 Phone: ++61 (0)8 83037284
>Dept. of Soil and Water      Fax:   ++61 (0)8 83036511
>The University of Adelaide   Email: jason.bobbin at waite.adelaide.edu.au
>Glen Osmond, SA              URL: http://jbobbin.waite.adelaide.edu.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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009
X-Originating-IP: [203.35.83.3]
From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Northern NSW storms Sat arvo
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 00:02:53 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all....
There is some action up here but a bit far away to chase. There is a line of 
storms between Coffs Harbour-Grafton Tenterfield which is being propelled by 
the SE influence below still pretty strong NE sea breezes here at Evans 
Head. I have just spoken to a friend at Dundurrabin west of Coffs Harbour on 
the ranges and she tells me a big storm approached from the SE but split 
into two. There is currently lots of lightning and thunder associated with 
the two cells which are showing pink on the BOM radar Grafton Local about 
50k SW of Grafton. I have discussed the situation with Michael Bath and we 
have decided to sit and wait. The storms look very flat from Evans Head 
which is 70-100 kms away as the crow flies from the action.....I predict 
however that the storms will diminish as the sun sets and we will get a 
milder SE change in about 2-4 hours through the northern rivers area of NSW.
Regards Halden



______________________________________________________
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010
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 17:30:41 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strato - Cumulus chase is on
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Michael... in many parts of the world they call a day like today
anticyclonic gloom. although strickly not the same it is equally as
boring and I loved your articulate description and consideration of all
the exciting possibilities that can develop from such a day.
Don W

Michael Thompson wrote:
> 
> Perfect Sc chase conditions here in the Illawarra. Last nights models
> indicated CAPE of 0 and Lift Index of +5 or 6. The only worry would be that
> if winds stayed NE we might get some mositure. However I was delighted to
> see that the SE ( Storm Eradicator ) came through at 5am, this is perfect
> timing as it stabilises all the lower atmosphere before the sun even gets a
> chance.
> 
> >From daylight until now at 12.30pm we have had perfect strato-cumulus
> conditions, the bases are even at a moderate level thus completely taking
> away the risk of drizzle. There has been no convection what so ever,  Sc
> heaven. The only worry is the sun line has been located approx 10-20 km
> offshore, the Sc has been patchy since 11am, however my Sc chase experience
> tells me that the sun line will retreat back out towards the eastern horizon
> as the afternoon progresses.
> 
> The great thing about Sc chasing is that I don't even have to risk 1cent of
> fuel to get to the best position. It has been a great Sc season so far in
> the Illawarra, I have yet to that dreaded thunder noise.
> 
> Michael Thompson
> http://thunder.simplenet.com
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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011
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Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 16:55:19 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: NSW Severe Thunderstorm Advice & obs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I've been out for about an hour watching the activity near Grafton. It's
been pretty weak with no solid updrafts. Even weaker activity was up on the
tablelands near Tenterfield but has collapsed. Some congestus is popping up
nearby to my SW with the weak Cbs to the S-SW getting closer.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1625 on Saturday the 16th of October 1999

This advice affects people in the following weather districts:

North West Slopes and Plains

Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area during the afternoon
Some of these are expected to be severe, bringing large hailstones,
destructive winds and very heavy rainfall.


 ==================================================================
 Michael Bath         mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
 Wollongbar NSW 2477  http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
                      http://www.lightningphotography.com/
 Secretary ASWA Inc.  http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
 ==================================================================
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012
X-Originating-IP: [203.27.197.50]
From: "Rod Aikman" [raikman at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: TV Interview
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 21:30:41 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Jane and everyone,
                  Yes it was my turn on Friday afternoon. They probably 
spent about 15-20 minutes conducting the camera interview re Feb 8, 1983 
dust storm; and in that time I was able to give ASWA and Melbourne Storm 
Chasers a plug. After the interview they filmed me at the computer with the 
ASWA page open, and looking at the radar. They took some close-ups of the 
screen, however I don't know how these will turn out. I suppose when it all 
boils down it will be interesting to see what is actually screened, and what 
ends up on the cutting room floor. Unfortunately, like Dane, they insisted 
that I wear a dark coloured plain shirt, so I was also unable to wear my 
ASWA shirt.

Rod Aikman,
Bendigo, Vic



Good on you Dane!!!! - even if you weren't allowed to wear your ASWA
shirt......I've asked for a copy of the video when it's finished.  Donna
wasn't sure when it would be available but if it's ready before I leave
Melbourne for the chase in November I'll bring it with me.

How much of the 2 hours was actually filmed?

Have a good time in the sunny (and stormy) north and don't forget a
camera...... 

Lots of luck for tomorrow Rod!!!!!!

Jane

Just had this TV crew here filming me about the 1983 Melbourne dust storm.
They were here for about two hours, I mentioned the ASWA and Melbourne storm
chasers but i doubt that will make it onto the official video. Was unable to
wear my ASWA T shirt as they said they wanted me to wear a dark shirt with
no logo. They also filmed me taking readings from my Stevenson Screen. I
probably will look like a real wanker. They said that it will probably be
shown on NBC in the USA in a few weeks, the viewing audience is 12 million.
BTW they said that if any of us got good footage of severe storms in
Australia they would be interested in seeing it. I will be away for the next
two weeks visiting my brother in Byron Bay with luck may get a good storm or
two on the way there or back, Dane Newman (Kilsyth) Melbourne. Ps thanks
Jane for dobbing me in.
-------------------------------------------------------
Jane ONeill
ASWA - Victoria
Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA Inc.)
Melbourne Storm Chasers
Email: cadence at rubix.net.au
-------------------------------------------------------


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013
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: TV Interview
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 21:56:00 +1000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Another great day for ASWA!!!!  It'll be interesting to see if Donna can get
us a copy of the video before I leave Melbourne - it'd be great to see it on
the storm chase.  Many thanks to both Rod & Dane for standing up to the
rigors of a TV interview & joining the ever-growing ranks of interviewed
ASWAins!!!!!

Jane

Jane ONeill
ASWA - Victoria
Email: cadence at rubix.net.au 
Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence
Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA Inc.)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

�>Subject: RE: aus-wx: TV Interview
>
>
>Jane and everyone,
>                  Yes it was my turn on Friday afternoon. They probably
>spent about 15-20 minutes conducting the camera interview re Feb 8, 1983
>dust storm; and in that time I was able to give ASWA and Melbourne Storm
>Chasers a plug. After the interview they filmed me at the computer
>with the
>ASWA page open, and looking at the radar. They took some close-ups of the
>screen, however I don't know how these will turn out. I suppose
>when it all
>boils down it will be interesting to see what is actually
>screened, and what
>ends up on the cutting room floor. Unfortunately, like Dane, they insisted
>that I wear a dark coloured plain shirt, so I was also unable to wear my
>ASWA shirt.
>
>Rod Aikman,
>Bendigo, Vic
>
>
>

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014
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strato - Cumulus chase is on
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 21:59:38 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Thankfully the Cu stayed away, as it ended up a perfect strato-cumulus day.
Today I saw the big one, a SC5 !!!

The Strato-cumulus index is

SC1 = Scattered Sc, but sunny periods, some weak convection allowed.
SC2 = At least 50% of the sky is covered by Sc, very little if any
convection, small sunny breaks allowed.
SC3 = Most of the sky covered, but some small breaks allowed.
SC4 = Complete sky coverage, however bases may be too low with drizzle or
too thin allowing noon sun to be seen thru Sc.
SC5 - Total Sc cover, hard to see any cloud structure. No drizzle or sun.
Uniform grey.

The big one occurred from about 2.30pm to 4pm. The sun line which had been
teasing at 11am finally shut down and the Sc rolled across the remaining
gaps over the ocean to be a complete 100% cover. At approx 4pm small clumps
of Cu Humilis formed near Wollongong, I have my suspisions that warm air and
moisture from the BHP coke ovens outflow may have caused some local
convection, thus killing off the SC5 conditions. It was evident that the rot
was starting to set in, the SC base was becoming denser and lower, drizzle
was a definite possibility. Around 9pm and the lightest drizzle you can
imagine started. The radar loops show nothing, typical of some drizzle
situations here in the Illawarra.

Tomorrows Sc chase will have to be early, winds may turn NE by the afternoon
and the sky may clear to SC2 or SC1 conditions.

Michael



> You might say stratocumulus heaven but this morning, I saw large cumulus
> west of the gong... There is instability and I can say quite some
> interesting times for the Hunter and near the Blue Mtns
>
> You are in the thick of it on Monday
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
>
> At 12:37 16/10/99 +1000, you wrote:
> >Perfect Sc chase conditions here in the Illawarra. Last nights models
> >indicated CAPE of 0 and Lift Index of +5 or 6. The only worry would be
that
> >if winds stayed NE we might get some mositure. However I was delighted to
> >see that the SE ( Storm Eradicator ) came through at 5am, this is perfect
> >timing as it stabilises all the lower atmosphere before the sun even gets
a
> >chance.
> >
> > From daylight until now at 12.30pm we have had perfect strato-cumulus
> >conditions, the bases are even at a moderate level thus completely taking
> >away the risk of drizzle. There has been no convection what so ever,  Sc
> >heaven. The only worry is the sun line has been located approx 10-20 km
> >offshore, the Sc has been patchy since 11am, however my Sc chase
experience
> >tells me that the sun line will retreat back out towards the eastern
horizon
> >as the afternoon progresses.
> >
> >The great thing about Sc chasing is that I don't even have to risk 1cent
of
> >fuel to get to the best position. It has been a great Sc season so far in
> >the Illawarra, I have yet to that dreaded thunder noise.
> >
> >
> >
> >Michael Thompson
> >http://thunder.simplenet.com
> >
> >
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>
>
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015
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Come on - not Sydney again
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 22:20:57 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The Li and CAPE are certainly good just west of Sydney. The area that has me
interested for a chase ( but I can't ) is the Lithgow to Mudgee road. I lost
count of the number of storms last year that formed from Lithgow west and
drifted NE towards Mudgee, Ilford then into the far upper reaches of the
Hunter. I am itching to chase that area. My memories are that the road is a
bit winding in parts, but around other parts like Capertee you are on top of
the divide and the land is cleared.

The wind has me doubting that anything truly severe will happen, the models
I looked at indicated very little shear, but I hope yours are right.

Regardless this season is looking in far better shape than last. Remember
our death ridge from hell week last year, the same week this year had storms
in NSW and VIC.

Michael


----- Original Message -----
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Saturday, 16 October 1999 9:26
Subject: aus-wx: Come on - not Sydney again


> Checking the LI values and the wind profile for Monday, it seems that
> Sydney will be in storm heaven. We will see what happens with the not so
> good mid-level moisture profile  - ie perhaps a tad too much mid-level
> moisture..
>
> Stayed tuned
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
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Document: 991016.htm
Updated: 30 October 1999

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