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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Monday, 8 November 1999 |
From Subject
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001 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Brisbane Goes "Off" - well, half of it anyway
002 "weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au] ECL "H20" bomb for Tuesday?
003 peter.corlett at doi.vic.gov.au Sunday afternoon Melbourne weather
004 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Models (was:ECL bomb for Tuesday?)
005 "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au] Sunday afternoon Melbourne weather
006 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) ECL bomb for Tuesday?
007 Jason Bobbin [jason at jbobbin.waite.adelaide.ed Adelaide Mins
008 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] ECL bomb for Tuesday?
009 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Models (was:ECL bomb for Tuesday?)
010 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Adelaide Mins
011 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Melbourne Squall line
012 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Sunday afternoon Melbourne weather
013 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] SE QLD STA
014 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Wet weekend?"
015 Jason Bobbin [jason at jbobbin.waite.adelaide.ed Adelaide Mins
016 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Radar discussion?
017 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Wet weekend?"
018 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Brisbane Goes "Off" - well, half of it anyway
019 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] PCMDI Model page is back!
020 "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au] SE Qld Warning
021 "weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au] Heavy Rain in Western Sydney
022 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] SE Qld Warning
023 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Brisbane Goes "Off" - well, half of it anyway
024 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] PCMDI Model page is back!
025 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] Heavy Rain in Western Sydney
026 Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org] Strong Upper Jet...
027 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com] Northern NSW ordinary weather day
028 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] ECL Bomb and the cricket...
029 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com] Strong Upper Jet...
030 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] ECL Bomb and the cricket...
031 "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au] ECL bomb for Tuesday?
032 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Snow...
033 Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org] Funnel Cloud...
034 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com] Strong Upper Jet...further obs
035 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] ECL Bomb and the cricket...
036 Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org] Re: Funnel Cloud...
037 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Heavy Rain in Western Sydney
038 Ben Munro [benjamin at biosys.net] ECL bomb for Tuesday?
039 "Anthony Spierings" [as029 at powerup.com.au] Lightning on Demand
040 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Heavy Rain in Western Sydney
041 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] ECL bomb for Tuesday?
042 "Clyve Herbert" [cadence at rubix.net.au] Frontal Angular Descriptions
043 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] Storm Damage
044 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] List archive
045 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] "Southern Exposure" (slightly OT)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane Goes "Off" - well, half of it anyway
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 00:03:26 -0000
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kabboom.
What a great day. I counted 6 different cells that rumbled there way past
Mt. Crosby today, most were quite photogenic. The best was second last,
and derived from a large cluster to NW at around 4:30pm. When the main body
of the storm was near Lake Manchester, an awesome guster developed from
nothing in about 5 mins. This formed on the SW rear flank, well curved and
was very turbulent, with strong upward movements. Initially I thought I
was looking at a wall cloud, but as it approached it became more of a shelf
cloud and swung around the storm body in a anticlockwise direction. (i.e,
started out as a front approaching from the N/NW behind the D'guilar Range
but swung around to form a line N-S finally heading off towards Brisbane in
an Easterly/NE direction - seeming to swing around the range to line up
with another small cell to the South) As it passed Mt. Crosby we received
very strong & cold NW winds, estimated 90-120kph, a classic microburst.
Made quite a mess, with leaves, bark & small branches over all the roads.
It looked like we would get at least the tail end of the following
rain/hail curtain, but it passed to the North. The storm had Nasty written
on it, and I think parts of Pullenvale/Brookfield must have copped a fair
hammering. I'm surprised it didn't drop a funnel.
Took around a 15 photos of various spectacular cloud formations, including
nice crisp updraughts, a classic flanking line at 2:00pm on an earlier
cell, and some awesome turbulence directly overhead at 5:15pm. Many small
cells today had clearly rotating bases, but in all cases they were rotating
anticyclonicly. One cell was rotating around a large hole in the middle
(photo taken of course).
Funnily enough, despite the 6 cells, not a single core passed over my
location, so no measurable rain was recorded! Rather a pity that the
Energex Lightning Tracker was out of action all day.
Power flickered during the storms and then failed at 7:40pm, by which time
the storms had passed out to sea. Outage lasted 2 and half hours with 3
failed attempts to get it back up. Suspect a tree or large branch
somewhere in the vicinity was tangled in lines. Outage covered an area
bounded by Lake Machester to North, Karana downs to the East, Chuwar to to
South and Pine Mountain to the West.
John.
Hi all,
Hail just under golf ball size has been reported at Chapel Hill (thanks
to Narelle Bowmaker for reporting this). I phoned the BoM and reported
it...lots of reports of 1cm - 10c hail (that's ten cents, not cm) - some
"extreme winds" reported, but not aware of any damage caused by them.
I >almost< received something nice, when a cluster of cells (pink/red)
split into two! One distinctly moving right, and one distinctly moving
left, the right-mover had what appeared to be a hook echo, and remained
fairly intense until it approached me anyway! I saw a hail shaft, as
well as a very nice/great shelf cloud! Certainly rounded, and reminded
me somewhat of my Nov 24, Noosa shelf cloud - but it collapsed right on
top of me before it could develop further *sigh*.
However, to more than make up for them, I witnessed some absolutely
fantastic updrafts go up to the south...it was amazing, never seen
updrafts like these before! Trees/houses in the way - but you should
still be able to see the tops of these when I eventually get them
developed.
Narelle also witnessed a "definite wall cloud with rotation under a
rotating meso" to the north of the city, she commented on how well
defined it was. Narelle has had extensive chasing experience in the US,
and I don't for one minute doubt her report!
To add further interesting observations, another ASWA member reported a
possible funnel in the SW suburbs!
I calculated todays CAPE to be ~2555 using my obs (29.6C, DP of 21C)
(and using a CAPE proggy).
The day started off nicely at least, but pulse t'storms ruled most of
the day...however some had some nice structure to them.
Anyway - time to catch up on all the study I've missed out on today from
the storms. Tomorrow doesn't appear to be too bad either. I'm without
windows in exams from 1:30pm to 7:30pm - oh yeah, it'll go off
definately given that situation!!!
Any other reports Brisbanites??? Don't be shy now!!
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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002
From: "weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: ECL "H20" bomb for Tuesday?
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 01:40:17 +1100
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Hey guys
This looks like it could be a major event (if all this technology we put our
faith in is correct). The Sydney region hasn't had extensive flooding since
the 1992.The storms we had Saturday produced heavy downbursts of 15mm in
some areas of western sydney. However the ground is so waterlogged that any
rain is just running straight off. The past two weekends (not including this
one) the Nepean river has had minor flooding, and all tributaries have risen
too. There is also alot of surface water just lying in paddocks and on the
sides of the roads in low lying areas. Any more extensoive rain like we have
seen recently could result in widespread flooding, and with this 'bomb'
rapidly developing just off the coast, this could be it.
All the turf farmers on the Hawkesbury-Nepean Floodplain would be praying
for some flooding so they can get a dusting of much needed topsoil/silt.
Daniel Weatherhead
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
> Both the latest (00z) GASP and AVN develop a bomb low off the Central
> NSW Coast on Tuesday morning -- in fact, GASP drops the pressure there
> from ~1015 at 00z Monday to 995 at 00z Tuesday. The latest meso-LAPS
> (based on 00z Sunday) seems to be heading in this direction, too, with
> a low of 1003 in the very NE corner of SA at 00z Monday, moving to be
> about 100km E of Bourke and 999hPa by 12z Monday.
>
> LAPS doesn't pick this up at all, just protruding a deep trough into
> central northern NSW by 12z Monday, but developing a 1005hPa low in
> the trough well east of the NSW South Coast by 00z Tuesday. GASP moves
> a low of 1003 in far NE SA at 00z Monday to 995 and pretty much on
> Paul at Taree at 00z Tuesday, with a terrific thickness gradient --
> 568 through Cape Byron down to 536 on Cape Otway.
>
> MesoLAPS is predicting 20 to 50mm right across northern NSW and on the
> coast south of about Newcastle in the 24 hours to 12z Monday.
>
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather Links and News
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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003
From: peter.corlett at doi.vic.gov.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 08:17:55 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sunday afternoon Melbourne weather
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Phil,
I drove through the same rain band yesterday and driving conditions
were amongst the worst I have experienced. I saw a nasty accident on the Western
Hwy where a car drove into the side of a cutting, either he lost traction or
just didn't see the road.
The onset of this rain band was particularly fierce. The road seemed to go from
dry to a river in about 30 seconds.
This seems to have only affected Melbourne and Bacchus Marsh. My in-laws only
recorded 1mm in Ballarat yesterday. I'd also be interested to see the radar for
yesterday afternoon if anyone archived it.
To the present, there is some nice, sheared-looking convection occuring over the
Mornington Peninsula this morning and some castellanus in the background.
Cheers,
Pete.
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004
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Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 08:38:05 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Models (was:ECL bomb for Tuesday?)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>Both the latest (00z) GASP and AVN develop a bomb low off the Central
>NSW Coast on Tuesday morning -- in fact, GASP drops the pressure there
>from ~1015 at 00z Monday to 995 at 00z Tuesday. The latest meso-LAPS
>(based on 00z Sunday) seems to be heading in this direction, too, with
>a low of 1003 in the very NE corner of SA at 00z Monday, moving to be
>about 100km E of Bourke and 999hPa by 12z Monday.
All this talk about models, and the multitude of different sites where they
are found, makes me wonder...has any site brought all three (GASP, AVN &
LAPS) together on the same page (presumably in thumbnail size) for a model
to model, day by day comparism? That would be interesting.
Aloha from a chilly (just had our lowest November min on record apparently)
Adelaide....
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
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005
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sunday afternoon Melbourne weather
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 99 09:00:13 PST
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Hi people - I attended a Strawberry Festival in ?Seville I think - close to it, off the Warburton Hwy. Although there had been steady rain on Saturday, Sunday, in that neck of the woods was fine. The sun even appeared, too.
Cheers,
Nandina
nandina at alphalink.com.au
----------
> Phil,
> I drove through the same rain band yesterday and driving conditions
> were amongst the worst I have experienced. I saw a nasty accident on the
> Western
> Hwy where a car drove into the side of a cutting, either he lost traction or
> just didn't see the road.
>
> The onset of this rain band was particularly fierce. The road seemed to go
> from
> dry to a river in about 30 seconds.
>
> This seems to have only affected Melbourne and Bacchus Marsh. My in-laws only
> recorded 1mm in Ballarat yesterday. I'd also be interested to see the radar
> for
> yesterday afternoon if anyone archived it.
>
> To the present, there is some nice, sheared-looking convection occuring over
> the
> Mornington Peninsula this morning and some castellanus in the background.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Pete.
>
>
>
>
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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006
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ECL bomb for Tuesday?
Date: Sun, 07 Nov 1999 22:45:03 GMT
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The 12z mesoLAPS shows:
-- Broad low 1004 centred on Birdsville for 00z this morning
-- Tigher low 1001 on Mungindi for 12z tonight
-- Very tight little low 990 at 34S/155E or about 400km east of Sydney
for 00z Tuesday morning.
-- Almost no rain in NSW, but 20/30mm across NE SA and SW Qld to 00z
this morning (which appears to have happened)
-- 20/50mm across northern and NE NSW, with 10/20 across central NSW
and into southern Qld in the next 12 hours to 12z tonight
-- 20/50mm along the NSW coast/ranges and in SE Qld, with lesser
amounts on the NSW slopes and south coast in the next 12 hours to 00z
Tuesday.
-- Wind picking up to 45 knots not far offshore on the midnorth coast
at 00z Tuesday, with 6m swells developing just off the Hunter and Mid
North Coasts by that time.
GASP 12z run last night is similar, possibly keeping the low a bit
closer to the coast.
LAPS concurs with mesoLAPS, deepening the low to 984 at +48 hours (12z
Tuesday) about 600km east of Gabo Island.
NOGAPS 12z product is broadly the same scenario time-wise, but doesn't
deepen the low as fast, though it gets down to ~985 by 12z Tuesday at
about the same location as LAPS. NOGAPS gives the heaviest rain
(50/75mm) on the NSW Central and Mid North Coasts during Tuesday, with
not a lot elsewhere apart from the NW Slopes today.
AVN 12z product also broadly agrees, but keeps the rain more tightly
around the low, resulting in lower rainfall totals along the coast.
The stirking thing is the similarity of the models in the next 48
hours.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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007
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 09:41:18 +1030
From: Jason Bobbin [jason at jbobbin.waite.adelaide.edu.au]
Organization: University of Adelaide
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Adelaide Mins
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Phil Bagust wrote:
> Aloha from a chilly (just had our lowest November min on record apparently)
> Adelaide....
According to Blair's extreme weather page the minimum November
temperature for Adelaide is 5.5 on Nov 3rd, 1974. There was also a 5.6
on November 2 1909. The BOM site lists the Kent Town AWS as having a
minimum of 5.7 this morning. The BOM at
(http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_023034.shtml) list
Adelaide airport as having a November minimum of 4.2. I'm not sure which
site Blair is using. The Kent Town site is new according to the web, the
record commenced in 1977, and 6.5 was it's previous November minimum, so
the new temperature is comfortably below that.
Interestingly cold for November anyhow. I'm from Canberra, and it is
always coldest when there is no cloud cover. This is obviously different
in Adelaide, so why is it so cold just now??
Cheers Jason
PS Adelaide sites are listed at :
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/map/climate_avgs/a21b.shtml . Blair's page
is at http://mullara.met.unimelb.edu.au:8080/home/blair/homepage.html .
--
Jason Bobbin Phone: ++61 (0)8 83037284
Dept. of Soil and Water Fax: ++61 (0)8 83036511
The University of Adelaide Email: jason.bobbin at waite.adelaide.edu.au
Glen Osmond, SA URL: http://jbobbin.waite.adelaide.edu.au
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008
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
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Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 10:45:41 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ECL bomb for Tuesday?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Laurier
Thanks for the round up, it looks like its still pretty much the same as
late last night when i checked the models, no doubt tomorrow morning will
be very interesting.
Matt Smith
>The 12z mesoLAPS shows:
>
>-- Broad low 1004 centred on Birdsville for 00z this morning
>-- Tigher low 1001 on Mungindi for 12z tonight
>-- Very tight little low 990 at 34S/155E or about 400km east of Sydney
>for 00z Tuesday morning.
>-- Almost no rain in NSW, but 20/30mm across NE SA and SW Qld to 00z
>this morning (which appears to have happened)
>-- 20/50mm across northern and NE NSW, with 10/20 across central NSW
>and into southern Qld in the next 12 hours to 12z tonight
>-- 20/50mm along the NSW coast/ranges and in SE Qld, with lesser
>amounts on the NSW slopes and south coast in the next 12 hours to 00z
>Tuesday.
>-- Wind picking up to 45 knots not far offshore on the midnorth coast
>at 00z Tuesday, with 6m swells developing just off the Hunter and Mid
>North Coasts by that time.
>
>GASP 12z run last night is similar, possibly keeping the low a bit
>closer to the coast.
>
>LAPS concurs with mesoLAPS, deepening the low to 984 at +48 hours (12z
>Tuesday) about 600km east of Gabo Island.
>
>NOGAPS 12z product is broadly the same scenario time-wise, but doesn't
>deepen the low as fast, though it gets down to ~985 by 12z Tuesday at
>about the same location as LAPS. NOGAPS gives the heaviest rain
>(50/75mm) on the NSW Central and Mid North Coasts during Tuesday, with
>not a lot elsewhere apart from the NW Slopes today.
>
>AVN 12z product also broadly agrees, but keeps the rain more tightly
>around the low, resulting in lower rainfall totals along the coast.
>
>The stirking thing is the similarity of the models in the next 48
>hours.
>
>--
>Laurier Williams
>Australian Weather Links and News
>http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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009
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Models (was:ECL bomb for Tuesday?)
Date: Sun, 07 Nov 1999 23:49:30 GMT
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On Mon, 8 Nov 1999 08:38:05 +0930, Phil Bagust
wrote:
>All this talk about models, and the multitude of different sites where they
>are found, makes me wonder...has any site brought all three (GASP, AVN &
>LAPS) together on the same page (presumably in thumbnail size) for a model
>to model, day by day comparism? That would be interesting.
>
I would if I could, Phil.
Unfortunately, all the local products (GASP, LAPS and mesoLAPS ... and
a few other more experimental ones like TAPS) are only available at
substantial $$$$$s from the Bureau. The Bureau's Basic Product Set
(i.e., what they supply for free) is currently under review -- as it
has been for about 3 years -- but latest word is that some decisions
should be forthcoming real soon now. The relevance of this is that, if
some Bureau model data is placed in the Basic Product Set, then (a)
Australians could freely view the models their own taxes have paid
for, and (b) comparisons such as you mention would be possible.
In the meantime, I'm doing a major workover of my homepage over the
next few weeks, and one of the items on the agenda is a more rational
organisation of the now substantial model output available. Maybe
Michael Fewings, who's better at the geewhizzardry than me, could have
a look at doing something like this, too.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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010
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide Mins
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 10:49:21 +1100 (EST)
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>
> Phil Bagust wrote:
>
> > Aloha from a chilly (just had our lowest November min on record apparently)
> > Adelaide....
>
> According to Blair's extreme weather page the minimum November
> temperature for Adelaide is 5.5 on Nov 3rd, 1974. There was also a 5.6
> on November 2 1909. The BOM site lists the Kent Town AWS as having a
> minimum of 5.7 this morning. The BOM at
> (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_023034.shtml) list
> Adelaide airport as having a November minimum of 4.2. I'm not sure which
> site Blair is using. The Kent Town site is new according to the web, the
> record commenced in 1977, and 6.5 was it's previous November minimum, so
> the new temperature is comfortably below that.
My page uses both the West Terrace and Kent Town sites. West Terrace
closed in 1979 (and is where the 5.5 was set). Kent Town opened in
1977. This gave about 2 years' overlap between the sites, which
suggests that minima at Kent Town are a little colder than those at
West Terrace (around 0.5 degrees, depending on the time of year).
I thought about using a data set adjusted for inhomogeneities on
my page, but in the end decided that it would cause more confusion
than it was worth to have a set of records inconsistent with the
Bureau ones. (This also applies to site changes - of which there
are many - at other sites that aren't accompanied by a change in
station number).
The existing record of 5.5 probably equates to high 4s at Kent Town,
so this morning was notable, but not record territory.
> Interestingly cold for November anyhow. I'm from Canberra, and it is
> always coldest when there is no cloud cover. This is obviously different
> in Adelaide, so why is it so cold just now??
Is it different in Adelaide? - there were plenty of breaks in the
cloud in Melbourne this morning, so I wouldn't be surprised if it was
clear in Adelaide (in the early hours of the morning, at any rate).
The places where low minimum temperatures aren't necessarily
associated with clear skies in Australia tend to be:
- exposed coastal and mountaintop sites with little diurnal range
under normal circumstances - where the lowest temperatures tend
to be in 'cold outbreak' situations with strong winds
- tropical sites in summer - where low temperatures are associated
with downdrafts in thunderstorms. (This is reinforced nicely by
the pattern of spatial coherence of temperature in northern
Australia - the correlation of daily minimum temperatures between
Darwin and Katherine in summer is on a par with that between
Darwin and Mildura in winter).
By the way, Jason - I assume you were in the same year as me at ANU?
Blair
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011
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Squall line
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 11:04:31 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
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>
> Morning all
>
> An somewhat unexpected development theis morning hrere in melbourne. Very
> nice thunderstorm developed right on the city and reached pink on radar.
> Development was explosive to say the least and storm tops reached about
> 27000ft. Plenty of moisture around still - hopefully we get a little more
> heating for some more action. Also interesting to note was the melbounre
> web cam caught a CG - YEP - a CG on the web cam. MSC will have it up very
> soon so watch for it.
>
> Macca
There was also an isolated cell, which at the time was small (1km
across) but with very heavy rain, which I ran into near Essendon
Airport at about 10.30 a.m. on Saturday on the way to Bendigo, and
appeared to be tracking north-east. Did anyone see what happened to
it?
Blair Trewin
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012
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sunday afternoon Melbourne weather
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 11:10:56 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
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>
> Hey all,
>
> I had the most interesting drive home this afternoon from the city. Light
> rain was falling in the city at around 4.30 from a a slow-moving cold front
> which then produced a torrential downpour in Alphington (8 km NE of the
> city). This was the heaviest rain I have ever driven in. The roads were
> flooding instantly and visibility was down to 20 m. The road could not be
> differentiated from the footpath. I didn't hear any thunder. The rain was
> not as heavy at home (Heidelberg - 10 km NE of the city) but still produced
> 10 mm in 15 minutes. Did anyone catch the RADAR images from this?
I saw one image, after the heaviest of it had gone through, and there
was nothing too spectacular - just a couple of spots of yellow. I
was surprised that light rain lingered for much of the rest of the
evening, though.
Nothing too spectacular in the suburban rain reports, although the
stations of most interest in this context (Preston, Eltham and
Mitcham) haven't reported as yet.
> I haven't seen rain this heavy since I have been in Melbourne (2.5 years).
> Although another downpour occured between East Melbourne and Kew Saturday
> morning which may hev been as heavy...but that was very fast-moving.
The heaviest rain I've seen in my five years here was on one early
morning in April, 1996 (I was caught in it out running!). That day
Prahran reported about 60mm in 90 minutes; I imagine peak rates
would have been in the 100-150 mm/hr range. There was quite a bit
of local flash flooding, although nothing too serious.
Blair Trewin
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013
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Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 12:34:31 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD STA
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TOP PRIORITY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
at 11:10am EST on Monday the 8th of November 1999
For the southeast coast district
The Bureau of Meteorology advises people of the possibility of severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail and heavy rain in the southeast coast
district.
If severe thunderstorms develop then severe thunderstorm warnings will be
issued.
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014
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 12:44:00 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Models...was "Re: aus-wx: Wet weekend?"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Interesting dump on the models, wx-lovers:-) For my own $0.02
worth, I downloaded AVN/MRF from ARL (READY) last Friday for
a weekend forecast in the region where I was going...Perisher
Valley, NSW. To cut a long, complex story short, I reprocess
AVN/MRF data using a statistical technique that derives
corrective, essentially "static" running-mean parameters based
on the model analysis/obs cycle, then regenerate the temp/precip
metrograms. This has a proven good track-record in forecasting
snow during winter 1999, but is proving a challenge with the
changing season to spring/summer. This is because the
surface-type modelling is not sufficiently sophisticated to
take into proper account (and resolution) of the changing
landscape due to topography, landform type, vegetation,
stored water content, sensible heat net flux and so forth...
AVN was up the creek because heights/precip was removed from
+36hrs for the 12Z forecast run. MRF proved to be very close
indeed which was a surprise...however, from +144hrs out, it's
largely fiction but has produced some good results from
time-to-time. No worse or better than other models at this
forecast point from what I can see from the maps/pic
point-of-view, but I don't have normalised model data to go
by which would prove to be a more reliable comparison...
Always on the hunt for the best model data source, I saw
Les's post concerning ECMWF and was wondering whether they
also provide a text/data source from their model runs as well
as maps/pics for $free of course.
As an aside, I would also like to get equivalent data from
the BoM's GASP, then I could do a model-by-model analysis.
However, I know that is unlikely:-(
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
Andrew McDonald wrote on Sat, 6 Nov 1999 00:53:23 +1100:
>
> Hey all:
>
> Now for my 2 cents worth on MRF.... I have been doing my own thunderstorm
> forecasts for melbourne (victoria) for the last three or so weeks using the
> MRF 9 day panel and have gone 4 from 5 so far. I have no idea if this is
> due to luck (on their behalf as well as mine) but to me that's not too bad.
>
> Andrew McDonald
>
> Macca.
Leslie R. Lemon wrote on Fri, 5 Nov 1999 00:36:12 -0500
> Mike:
>
> LOL........that is a new one on me! But it often fits! I like the
> ECMWF any day over the MRF or AVN for that matter. As I see it,
> that (ECMWF) is now about the best model around. Even the ETA has
> not been performing well.....not as far as convective precip or
> soundings.
>
> Les (US)
> ----------
> > From: Anthony Cornelius
> > Date: Friday, 5 November 1999 15:03
> >
> > I thought MRF stood for Medium Range F...up.
> >
> > Although it doesn't appear to be too bad 0-72hrs days as a general rule,
> > (probably because it's built on the AVN model, and is normally very
> > similar to AVN 0-72hrs) but normally after that it tends to do as it
> > pleases.
> >
> > Mark Hardy wrote on Fri, 05 Nov 1999 14:56:10 +1100:
> > >
> > > Hey Leslie, is it true that MRF stands for More Ridiculous Forecasts?
> > > MH
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015
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 12:33:26 +1030
From: Jason Bobbin [jason at jbobbin.waite.adelaide.edu.au]
Organization: University of Adelaide
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide Mins
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Blair Trewin wrote:
> > Interestingly cold for November anyhow. I'm from Canberra, and it is
> > always coldest when there is no cloud cover. This is obviously different
> > in Adelaide, so why is it so cold just now??
>
> Is it different in Adelaide? - there were plenty of breaks in the
> cloud in Melbourne this morning, so I wouldn't be surprised if it was
> clear in Adelaide (in the early hours of the morning, at any rate).
After the world cup on Saturday there was no chance of me seeing early
morning clouds, so it may well have been clear as you say. It was
certainly still, which I would guess hints that cloud cover was low and
the minimum occurred due to radiative heat loss, but I don't really know
about these things ...
> By the way, Jason - I assume you were in the same year as me at ANU?
That would be me. I found your page quite a while back, and thought it
was great, but never got around to emailing.
By way of an `introduction' which I never got around to for the list, my
interest is mostly in learning more about mechanisms of the weather, and
matching observations with whatever theory I can acquire. My interest in
weather is primarily driven by my interests in outdoor sports such as
bushwalking, rogaining, skiing and surfing, where observing and
following the weather patterns can add a lot to what you get out of the
activities (and make them safer!). I also have a `professional' interest
in so far as my PhD is on inductive machine learning methods which have
found the occasional use in weather prediction (I suspect most useful in
local corrections to non-local models). Both weather and climate
interest me, although I guess this group is more oriented towards
weather (extremes).
I grew up in Eden, NSW (great for the more common than you'd think
snowstorms which happen in the mountains near town (towards Bombala))
did uni in Canberra (where I loved the cold winter mornings and mountain
snow) and have recently moved to Adelaide (not for too long) which is a
lot colder than I expected - or is it just this year?
Cheers,
Jason.
--
Jason Bobbin Phone: ++61 (0)8 83037284
Dept. of Soil and Water Fax: ++61 (0)8 83036511
The University of Adelaide Email: jason.bobbin at waite.adelaide.edu.au
Glen Osmond, SA URL: http://jbobbin.waite.adelaide.edu.au
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016
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 13:26:21 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radar discussion?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote on Thu, 4 Nov 1999 22:32:02 -0500:
>
> Hey........I hate to bother you all but can anyone tell me if my radar
> discussion made any sense at all? Too detailed undoubtedly......maybe too
> technical?
Please excuse my late post on this subject. It seems that a
mass of email has just cleared from our corporate server which
was caused in part by ozemail's woes. This means that your
original mail (and many others) arrived 3 days late...
Anyhow Les, I've pawed over your emails with great interest.
Fortunately, I've understood the majority of what you say as
I do have a tertiary background in radio/communications etc.
So please keep the detail there...One thing that hasn't been
mentioned is aussie-radar (not doppler:-) expected reflectivity
of snow/ice. Any comments Les?
As backgound, there are two major factors which adversely
affect the radar images recorded over our Snowy Mountains
during winter. First is the vertical angle which means that
the radar at Wagga is essentially looking at the middle levels
(>3500m) rather than the cloud level and second may be the
nature of the precipitation at that level being snow of a
very fine partical nature...All up, a lousy radar registration
of all but the heaviest of snow-fall.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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017
Date: Sun, 7 Nov 1999 21:56:51 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Models...was "Re: aus-wx: Wet weekend?"
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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A couple of years ago I talked to some friends who specialized in numerical
models. I was told the physics were unarguably better with the ECMWF.
However, I am unsure what changes may have been made in both models since
then.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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018
Date: Sun, 7 Nov 1999 22:24:20 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane Goes "Off" - well, half of it anyway
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Anthony:
> fairly intense until it approached me anyway! I saw a hail shaft, as
> well as a very nice/great shelf cloud! Certainly rounded, and reminded
> me somewhat of my Nov 24, Noosa shelf cloud - but it collapsed right on
> top of me before it could develop further *sigh*.
Keep in mind that it is often not until a supercell collapses, called, of
course, the "collapse phase", that tornadoes are spawn or become largest
and that the most intense surface winds with the RFD will occur. However,
that is also the period when hail size will rapidly diminish.
I must say, however, that because this storm was characterized as having a
shelf cloud it is less likely that it was a supercell unless it was more of
the HP variety or was 'gusting out'.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
019
X-Sender: jacob at mail.iinet.net.au
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Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 12:19:46 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: PCMDI Model page is back!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
The PCMDI weather maps page which went down in June last year is back, and
it has Australian maps back also, with the AVN, MRF, NGP.
The url is:
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/fiorino/wxmap/
Jacob
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020
From: "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au]
To: "aus-wx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: SE Qld Warning
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 14:49:06 +1000
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TOP PRIORITY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
at 2:44pm EST on Monday the 8th of November 1999
For the Southeast Coast
A severe thunderstorm was seen on radar in the Esk - Lowood region moving to
the
east at 40 km/hr. This thunderstorm could produce severe wind gusts, hail
and
heavy rain.
Other thunderstorms in the districts are not yet severe but they could
develop
during the afternoon.
People are advised to secure outside items, move cars under cover and seek
shelter.
The next warning will be issued at 3.30 pm
**** NOT FOR BROADCAST AFTER 3.30 pm ****
Regards
James Chambers
The Brisbane & SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html
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021
From: "weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Heavy Rain in Western Sydney
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 16:13:48 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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At around 3:50 a heavy front has swept thru western sydney from the north.
Is has brouhgt heavy rain, and a beautifully defined gustfront
(unfortunately obscurred by rain when camera was on hand). Looks to be
moving SSE.
Daniel Weatherhead
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
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022
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SE Qld Warning
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 15:06:24 -0000
Organization: Pixel Components
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Right now it's making a bee-line for my place at Mt. Crosby. Unfortunately, I'm at Sumner. :(
John.
-----Original Message-----
From: James Chambers [SMTP:jamestorm at ozemail.com.au]
Sent: Monday, 8 November 1999 14:49
To: aus-wx
Subject: aus-wx: SE Qld Warning
TOP PRIORITY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
at 2:44pm EST on Monday the 8th of November 1999
For the Southeast Coast
A severe thunderstorm was seen on radar in the Esk - Lowood region moving to
the
east at 40 km/hr. This thunderstorm could produce severe wind gusts, hail
and
heavy rain.
Other thunderstorms in the districts are not yet severe but they could
develop
during the afternoon.
People are advised to secure outside items, move cars under cover and seek
shelter.
The next warning will be issued at 3.30 pm
**** NOT FOR BROADCAST AFTER 3.30 pm ****
Regards
James Chambers
The Brisbane & SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html
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023
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane Goes "Off" - well, half of it anyway
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 15:09:31 -0000
Organization: Pixel Components
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>From direct observation, I would say gusting out and initiated by the collapse of a large cell towards the rear of the storm.
John.
-----Original Message-----
From: Leslie R. Lemon [SMTP:lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Sent: Monday, 8 November 1999 13:24
To: INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane Goes "Off" - well, half of it anyway
Anthony:
> fairly intense until it approached me anyway! I saw a hail shaft, as
> well as a very nice/great shelf cloud! Certainly rounded, and reminded
> me somewhat of my Nov 24, Noosa shelf cloud - but it collapsed right on
> top of me before it could develop further *sigh*.
Keep in mind that it is often not until a supercell collapses, called, of
course, the "collapse phase", that tornadoes are spawn or become largest
and that the most intense surface winds with the RFD will occur. However,
that is also the period when hail size will rapidly diminish.
I must say, however, that because this storm was characterized as having a
shelf cloud it is less likely that it was a supercell unless it was more of
the HP variety or was 'gusting out'.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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024
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 15:47:43 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: PCMDI Model page is back!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Ben from Brisbane here..
It's 3:45pm and this site already has the full AVN 00z run out!!! THat's
2-3 hours earlier than we've been able to access AVN forecasts for over
half a year now..
Jacob wrote:
>
> The PCMDI weather maps page which went down in June last year is back, and
> it has Australian maps back also, with the AVN, MRF, NGP.
>
> The url is:
>
> http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/fiorino/wxmap/
>
> Jacob
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025
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 17:02:03 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Rain in Western Sydney
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Reports of 94 mm in 75 minutes at north Rocks, 61 mm around Parramatta
(50+ in an hour).
Cant'confirm this at this stage.
Can anyone??
Unfortunately radar dropped out for an hour or so at this time. Over at
Frenchs Forest heavy rain 1715-1730 - 20 mm.
Don White
weatherhead wrote:
>
> At around 3:50 a heavy front has swept thru western sydney from the north.
> Is has brouhgt heavy rain, and a beautifully defined gustfront
> (unfortunately obscurred by rain when camera was on hand). Looks to be
> moving SSE.
>
> Daniel Weatherhead
> weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
>
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026
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 01:24:05 -0600 (CST)
From: Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Strong Upper Jet...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Looks like intensification of any ECL forming off N NSW coast will be
favoured by the upper level jet over N NSW. The NGP model has the winds
peaking at 140 kts at the 200 mb level.
- Paul G.
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027
X-Originating-IP: [203.35.83.4]
From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re:aus-wx: Northern NSW ordinary weather day
Date: Sun, 07 Nov 1999 23:21:24 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hello Weatherites.....
Northern NSW is flat with rain falling as I speak. Nothing to report here
except for about 6mm from the rain band. It does appear the low is just NW
of Evans Head at the moment because the wind is shifting towards the east.
Great weather for the garden at the moment here.
Cheers Halden
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028
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 08:07:49 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: ECL Bomb and the cricket...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Which is all very exciting BUT will it destroy the chance of a result in
the cricket in Brissy.
Lindsay P.
Laurier Williams wrote:
>
> Both the latest (00z) GASP and AVN develop a bomb low off the Central
> NSW Coast on Tuesday morning -- in fact, GASP drops the pressure there
> from ~1015 at 00z Monday to 995 at 00z Tuesday. The latest meso-LAPS
> (based on 00z Sunday) seems to be heading in this direction, too, with
> a low of 1003 in the very NE corner of SA at 00z Monday, moving to be
> about 100km E of Bourke and 999hPa by 12z Monday.
.......8-<
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029
X-Originating-IP: [203.35.83.4]
From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strong Upper Jet...
Date: Sun, 07 Nov 1999 23:28:30 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hiya Paul....
Looks like we are in for a blow as this low forms off the coast tonight and
gets a big hoot along from the jet from above...hopefully it will blow it
well out to sea over the next 12-24 hours
Halden
>From: Paul Graham
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Strong Upper Jet...
>Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 01:24:05 -0600 (CST)
>
>Looks like intensification of any ECL forming off N NSW coast will be
>favoured by the upper level jet over N NSW. The NGP model has the winds
>peaking at 140 kts at the 200 mb level.
>- Paul G.
>
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030
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ECL Bomb and the cricket...
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 18:40:06 +1100 (EST)
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>
> Which is all very exciting BUT will it destroy the chance of a result in
> the cricket in Brissy.
>
> Lindsay P.
>
The model runs I've seen suggest that all the rain will be through
Brisbane by 00Z (1000 EST, 1100 EDT) tomorrow, so there should be
a reasonably full day's play, providing that whatever falls in the
intervening period doesn't do too much damage.
(Having seen the models, I was going to go out at lunch and put some
money on a draw, but chickened out when Pakistan lost three early
wickets...).
The rain isn't especially heavy (yet) by the look of the Brisbane
Airport reports - 6.4mm in two hours or so.
(Incidentally, I notice Canberra is currently reporting 9.5 degrees
and a thunderstorm. Might see some reasonably low snow for November
if this develops further).
Blair Trewin
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031
From: "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ECL bomb for Tuesday?
Date: Tue, 9 Nov 1999 18:49:30 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
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Hi people,
Max from Sydney.........
No rain for NSW huh?
Tell that to my clothes that I've just hurled in the
dryer......LOL!!!!!!!!!!!
Coming home from work between 5 and 6pm, it couldn't have rained any heavier
if it had wanted too.
I arrived home like a drowned rat. (and I had my golf umbrella)
Oh well............still bucketing down as I type this (6.50pm)
Catchya all later
Max :)
----- Original Message -----
From: Laurier Williams [wbc at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Monday, November 08, 1999 9:45 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ECL bomb for Tuesday?
> The 12z mesoLAPS shows:
>
> -- Broad low 1004 centred on Birdsville for 00z this morning
> -- Tigher low 1001 on Mungindi for 12z tonight
> -- Very tight little low 990 at 34S/155E or about 400km east of Sydney
> for 00z Tuesday morning.
> -- Almost no rain in NSW, but 20/30mm across NE SA and SW Qld to 00z
> this morning (which appears to have happened)
> -- 20/50mm across northern and NE NSW, with 10/20 across central NSW
> and into southern Qld in the next 12 hours to 12z tonight
> -- 20/50mm along the NSW coast/ranges and in SE Qld, with lesser
> amounts on the NSW slopes and south coast in the next 12 hours to 00z
> Tuesday.
> -- Wind picking up to 45 knots not far offshore on the midnorth coast
> at 00z Tuesday, with 6m swells developing just off the Hunter and Mid
> North Coasts by that time.
>
> GASP 12z run last night is similar, possibly keeping the low a bit
> closer to the coast.
>
> LAPS concurs with mesoLAPS, deepening the low to 984 at +48 hours (12z
> Tuesday) about 600km east of Gabo Island.
>
> NOGAPS 12z product is broadly the same scenario time-wise, but doesn't
> deepen the low as fast, though it gets down to ~985 by 12z Tuesday at
> about the same location as LAPS. NOGAPS gives the heaviest rain
> (50/75mm) on the NSW Central and Mid North Coasts during Tuesday, with
> not a lot elsewhere apart from the NW Slopes today.
>
> AVN 12z product also broadly agrees, but keeps the rain more tightly
> around the low, resulting in lower rainfall totals along the coast.
>
> The stirking thing is the similarity of the models in the next 48
> hours.
>
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather Links and News
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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032
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 19:04:57 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Snow...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Dry snow has started to fall on Mt. Crackenback above Thredbo. Wet
snow is also falling in Perisher Valley from 18:30 (GMT +1100) as people
who are staying in our lodge have reported.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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033
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 02:56:52 -0600 (CST)
From: Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Funnel Cloud...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Two of my family reported seeing a funnel cloud S of the city on saturday
afternoon associated with a storm in the area, although they were
uncertain to its exact location but said that it looked quite impressive.
Unfortunately, I missed out being on a storm chase!
- Paul G.
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034
X-Originating-IP: [139.130.255.18]
From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strong Upper Jet...further obs
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 00:32:43 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hiya again Paul....
the 500/700/850mb winds have me fascinated too....seems like there is a push
from behind {above}...this is where she will interact. As I speak the wind
is tending ESE so the low is on the move....
night/early morning lows here swirl a lot as the upper/lower level winds
converge and interact. I suspect that we will get a big wind change here
over the next few hours and it will shift to the SE and the rain will feed
on itself as it sits here waiting to be dragged out by the jet early
tomorrow. The jet is very impressive huh?? Right over 29 degrees S pooling at
140knots 200mb
Regards Halden
>From: Paul Graham
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Strong Upper Jet...
>Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 01:24:05 -0600 (CST)
>
>Looks like intensification of any ECL forming off N NSW coast will be
>favoured by the upper level jet over N NSW. The NGP model has the winds
>peaking at 140 kts at the 200 mb level.
>- Paul G.
>
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035
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 18:41:30 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ECL Bomb and the cricket...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Blair, Everyone..
A fairly ordinary day here today.. no real storms here in Redcliffe (a
few Cg's on the leading edge of a rainband mid afternoon and a few more
rumbles half an hour later) just light/moderate rain from about 3pm
onwards with 7mm in the gauge at 6:30pm..
Quite windy here at the moment though, some 35+ knot gusts in the last
10 minutes..
A deepening trough should be moving across the Darline Downs as i write
this email.. hopefully we'll pick up something decent later on tonight
as it moves closer/through Brisbane.. at the moment radar indicates more
rain developing..
Blair Trewin wrote:
>
> >
> > Which is all very exciting BUT will it destroy the chance of a result in
> > the cricket in Brissy.
> >
> > Lindsay P.
> >
> The model runs I've seen suggest that all the rain will be through
> Brisbane by 00Z (1000 EST, 1100 EDT) tomorrow, so there should be
> a reasonably full day's play, providing that whatever falls in the
> intervening period doesn't do too much damage.
>
> (Having seen the models, I was going to go out at lunch and put some
> money on a draw, but chickened out when Pakistan lost three early
> wickets...).
>
> The rain isn't especially heavy (yet) by the look of the Brisbane
> Airport reports - 6.4mm in two hours or so.
>
> (Incidentally, I notice Canberra is currently reporting 9.5 degrees
> and a thunderstorm. Might see some reasonably low snow for November
> if this develops further).
>
> Blair Trewin
>
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036
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 03:06:51 -0600 (CST)
From: Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Funnel Cloud...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Apparently it was seen around 3pm or 4pm looking down Epping Rd towards
the city from the intersection with Pittwater Rd. Anyone else see this?
- Paul G.
On Mon, 8 Nov 1999, Paul Graham wrote:
> Two of my family reported seeing a funnel cloud S of the city on saturday
> afternoon associated with a storm in the area, although they were
> uncertain to its exact location but said that it looked quite impressive.
> Unfortunately, I missed out being on a storm chase!
> - Paul G.
>
>
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037
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 18:48:47 +1100
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Rain in Western Sydney
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
The rain must have been exceptionally localised. I only had 12mm at
Seven Hills North but I passed through the thick of it coming home in
the train. Between Harris Park and Westmead the rain was forcing its way
through small gaps in the weather seals on the train carriage windows.
The winds had swung from southeast to a moderate northwesterly and
rainfall intensity was at least 50mm/hour. I would be surprised if
Parramatta had 61mm itself but probably north of there it wouldn't be
surprising. There was no thunder or lightning.
Don White wrote:
>
> Reports of 94 mm in 75 minutes at north Rocks, 61 mm around Parramatta
> (50+ in an hour).
> Cant'confirm this at this stage.
> Can anyone??
> Unfortunately radar dropped out for an hour or so at this time. Over at
> Frenchs Forest heavy rain 1715-1730 - 20 mm.
> Don White
>
> weatherhead wrote:
> >
> > At around 3:50 a heavy front has swept thru western sydney from the north.
> > Is has brouhgt heavy rain, and a beautifully defined gustfront
> > (unfortunately obscurred by rain when camera was on hand). Looks to be
> > moving SSE.
> >
> > Daniel Weatherhead
> > weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
> >
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038
X-Sender: m3150396 at hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 20:05:37 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ben Munro [benjamin at biosys.net]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ECL bomb for Tuesday?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
The original message said no rain in NSW to 00z (i.e. 11am) It didn't start
raining in sydney until sometime after 3pm. But after that time there has
been a fair bit of rain in some places. Observatory hill has had 47mm so
far. I have had about 20mm at my place in ashfield.
Hopefully the rain will continue all night, giving some nice big totals.
And then stop in time for tomorrow
Ben Munro
At 18:49 09-11-99 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi people,
>Max from Sydney.........
>
>No rain for NSW huh?
>Tell that to my clothes that I've just hurled in the
>dryer......LOL!!!!!!!!!!!
>Coming home from work between 5 and 6pm, it couldn't have rained any heavier
>if it had wanted too.
>I arrived home like a drowned rat. (and I had my golf umbrella)
>Oh well............still bucketing down as I type this (6.50pm)
>
>Catchya all later
>Max :)
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Laurier Williams
>To:
>Sent: Monday, November 08, 1999 9:45 AM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: ECL bomb for Tuesday?
>
>
>> The 12z mesoLAPS shows:
>>
>> -- Broad low 1004 centred on Birdsville for 00z this morning
>> -- Tigher low 1001 on Mungindi for 12z tonight
>> -- Very tight little low 990 at 34S/155E or about 400km east of Sydney
>> for 00z Tuesday morning.
>> -- Almost no rain in NSW, but 20/30mm across NE SA and SW Qld to 00z
>> this morning (which appears to have happened)
>> -- 20/50mm across northern and NE NSW, with 10/20 across central NSW
>> and into southern Qld in the next 12 hours to 12z tonight
>> -- 20/50mm along the NSW coast/ranges and in SE Qld, with lesser
>> amounts on the NSW slopes and south coast in the next 12 hours to 00z
>> Tuesday.
>> -- Wind picking up to 45 knots not far offshore on the midnorth coast
>> at 00z Tuesday, with 6m swells developing just off the Hunter and Mid
>> North Coasts by that time.
>>
>> GASP 12z run last night is similar, possibly keeping the low a bit
>> closer to the coast.
>>
>> LAPS concurs with mesoLAPS, deepening the low to 984 at +48 hours (12z
>> Tuesday) about 600km east of Gabo Island.
>>
>> NOGAPS 12z product is broadly the same scenario time-wise, but doesn't
>> deepen the low as fast, though it gets down to ~985 by 12z Tuesday at
>> about the same location as LAPS. NOGAPS gives the heaviest rain
>> (50/75mm) on the NSW Central and Mid North Coasts during Tuesday, with
>> not a lot elsewhere apart from the NW Slopes today.
>>
>> AVN 12z product also broadly agrees, but keeps the rain more tightly
>> around the low, resulting in lower rainfall totals along the coast.
>>
>> The stirking thing is the similarity of the models in the next 48
>> hours.
>>
>> --
>> Laurier Williams
>> Australian Weather Links and News
>> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
>> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>> message.
>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>
>
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039
From: "Anthony Spierings" [as029 at powerup.com.au]
To: "Aussie-Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Lightning on Demand
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 19:16:38 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
Importance: Normal
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Question:
How does one access this list archive? Before posting this I tried to find
the list archive to search through in case this link had already been given.
--
This web site might interest the lightning photographers. It is called
"Lightning on Demand". The address is http://www/lod/org
Don't try this at home. Oh, and the tester on the front page is Mr A.
Dummy.
Regards,
Anthony Spierings
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
040
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Rain in Western Sydney
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 20:21:30 +1100
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Very little rain here in Wollongong, the rain from what I saw seemed to be
shy of the coast - for a change.
Did anybody look at radar about 2pm, impressive line of storms about 200km
offshore.
Michael
> The rain must have been exceptionally localised. I only had 12mm at
> Seven Hills North but I passed through the thick of it coming home in
> the train. Between Harris Park and Westmead the rain was forcing its way
> through small gaps in the weather seals on the train carriage windows.
> The winds had swung from southeast to a moderate northwesterly and
> rainfall intensity was at least 50mm/hour. I would be surprised if
> Parramatta had 61mm itself but probably north of there it wouldn't be
> surprising. There was no thunder or lightning.
>
> Don White wrote:
> >
> > Reports of 94 mm in 75 minutes at north Rocks, 61 mm around Parramatta
> > (50+ in an hour).
> > Cant'confirm this at this stage.
> > Can anyone??
> > Unfortunately radar dropped out for an hour or so at this time. Over at
> > Frenchs Forest heavy rain 1715-1730 - 20 mm.
> > Don White
> >
> > weatherhead wrote:
> > >
> > > At around 3:50 a heavy front has swept thru western sydney from the
north.
> > > Is has brouhgt heavy rain, and a beautifully defined gustfront
> > > (unfortunately obscurred by rain when camera was on hand). Looks to be
> > > moving SSE.
> > >
> > > Daniel Weatherhead
> > > weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
> > >
> > >
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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041
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 19:23:58 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ECL bomb for Tuesday?
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Have confirmed to some extent the heavy rain in the inner NW subus
3.30-4.30 although 94 mm still doubtful it appears totals > 60 mm in 1
hour occurred. Sydney had 48 mm to 8 pm - 33mm in the last 2 hours.
Borroloola (NT) had very heavy storm today. The AWs reported 40.2 mm in
ten minutes to 1440 and 19.6 in the next ten minutes - all up 94 mm
between 2 pm and 3 pm. The actual manual obs reported 115 mm to 3 pm.
Don White
Ben Munro wrote:
>
> The original message said no rain in NSW to 00z (i.e. 11am) It didn't start
> raining in sydney until sometime after 3pm. But after that time there has
> been a fair bit of rain in some places. Observatory hill has had 47mm so
> far. I have had about 20mm at my place in ashfield.
> Hopefully the rain will continue all night, giving some nice big totals.
> And then stop in time for tomorrow
>
> Ben Munro
>
> At 18:49 09-11-99 +1100, you wrote:
> >Hi people,
> >Max from Sydney.........
> >
> >No rain for NSW huh?
> >Tell that to my clothes that I've just hurled in the
> >dryer......LOL!!!!!!!!!!!
> >Coming home from work between 5 and 6pm, it couldn't have rained any heavier
> >if it had wanted too.
> >I arrived home like a drowned rat. (and I had my golf umbrella)
> >Oh well............still bucketing down as I type this (6.50pm)
> >
> >Catchya all later
> >Max :)
> >
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: Laurier Williams
> >To:
> >Sent: Monday, November 08, 1999 9:45 AM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: ECL bomb for Tuesday?
> >
> >
> >> The 12z mesoLAPS shows:
> >>
> >> -- Broad low 1004 centred on Birdsville for 00z this morning
> >> -- Tigher low 1001 on Mungindi for 12z tonight
> >> -- Very tight little low 990 at 34S/155E or about 400km east of Sydney
> >> for 00z Tuesday morning.
> >> -- Almost no rain in NSW, but 20/30mm across NE SA and SW Qld to 00z
> >> this morning (which appears to have happened)
> >> -- 20/50mm across northern and NE NSW, with 10/20 across central NSW
> >> and into southern Qld in the next 12 hours to 12z tonight
> >> -- 20/50mm along the NSW coast/ranges and in SE Qld, with lesser
> >> amounts on the NSW slopes and south coast in the next 12 hours to 00z
> >> Tuesday.
> >> -- Wind picking up to 45 knots not far offshore on the midnorth coast
> >> at 00z Tuesday, with 6m swells developing just off the Hunter and Mid
> >> North Coasts by that time.
> >>
> >> GASP 12z run last night is similar, possibly keeping the low a bit
> >> closer to the coast.
> >>
> >> LAPS concurs with mesoLAPS, deepening the low to 984 at +48 hours (12z
> >> Tuesday) about 600km east of Gabo Island.
> >>
> >> NOGAPS 12z product is broadly the same scenario time-wise, but doesn't
> >> deepen the low as fast, though it gets down to ~985 by 12z Tuesday at
> >> about the same location as LAPS. NOGAPS gives the heaviest rain
> >> (50/75mm) on the NSW Central and Mid North Coasts during Tuesday, with
> >> not a lot elsewhere apart from the NW Slopes today.
> >>
> >> AVN 12z product also broadly agrees, but keeps the rain more tightly
> >> around the low, resulting in lower rainfall totals along the coast.
> >>
> >> The stirking thing is the similarity of the models in the next 48
> >> hours.
> >>
> >> --
> >> Laurier Williams
> >> Australian Weather Links and News
> >> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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> >> message.
> >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >>
> >
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
042
From: "Clyve Herbert" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Frontal Angular Descriptions
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 21:38:14 +1100
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Title: Identification of Synoptic Frontal Angles
subtitle: an exercise in metal gymnastics
This is an idea for describing frontal or trough angles which can be
important for descriptive purposes.
1. Latitudinal: front lies west - east.
2. Longitudinal: front lies north - south.
3. - longitudinal: front lies NW - SE.
4. + longitudinal: front lies NE - SW.
5. - latitudinal: front lies SW - NE.
6. + latitudinal: front lies SE - NW.
Frontal or trough lines tend to cycle through various angles, frequency
commencing in a latitudinal or - longitudinal position & then cycling
through + longitudinal. Occasionally, some fronts may retain their -
longitudinal characteristics through most of their lives.
A rather mind bending idea, on a rather boring night driving trains in
Melbourne
Regards,
Clyve
-------------------------------------------------------
Clyve Herbert
ASWA - Victoria
Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA Inc.)
Melbourne Storm Chasers
Email: cadence at rubix.net.au
-------------------------------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
043
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 20:48:31 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Damage
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Hey Ben from Brisbane here..
Reports are beginning to come in now of a severe storm in the Gympie
Region - Mother Mountain to be exact.. i just spoke to an SES person,
and he said that one house has benn almost completely demolished, with a
house next to it with no roof.. there was only minor damage to
surrounding houses/houses in the area..
Myself or others from SE QLD will post any additional information as it
comes to hand..
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
044
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: List archive
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 22:00:58 +1100
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List archives are available on
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/storm_news/aussiewx.htm
Lot's of great reading from the very start!!!
Jane
Jane ONeill
ASWA - Victoria
Email: cadence at rubix.net.au
Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence
Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA Inc.)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>Question:
>
>How does one access this list archive? Before posting this I tried to find
>the list archive to search through in case this link had already
>been given.
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
045
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 1999 11:33:53 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
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To: aus-wx [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: "Southern Exposure" (slightly OT)
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list -
There's a TV series on the UK's Channel 4 about severe weather in
Australia, starting with cyclones and the Great Barrier Reef.... next
week it's about severe weather in NSW, somewhat timely, anyone want a
copy as I'll b recording it.
Happy hunting everyone, keep some for us.
Les (UK)
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| Document: 991108.htm
Updated: 10 November 1999 |
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