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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Tuesday, 7 December 1999 |
From Subject
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001 steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au] sat loop
002 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Re: Cyclone WA later in week?
003 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] ThunderDownUnder '99 - Brief Chase Summary
004 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] ThunderDownUnder '99 - Brief Chase Summary
005 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] Is Summer FInally Going To Arrive in Brisbane?
006 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] ThunderDownUnder '99 - Brief Chase Summary
007 Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu] operational model availability
008 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Cairns Radar & Mornington Island
009 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au SE NSW looking good for storms
010 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au SE NSW looking good for storms (2)
011 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] SE NSW looking good for storms
012 "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com] NSW STA
013 kevans at kisser.net.au Cyclone by the weekend ?
014 "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com] Chase Update 4:30pm
015 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au Great overshooting tops to the NW of Canberra
016 "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz] SE NSW looking good for storms
017 astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au] STA for SA
018 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] SE NSW Storms
019 astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au] New SA Page up and running ( almost )
020 Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org] Favourable Conditions for Supercells in Vic/S NSW...
021 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] AMOS Meeting
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001
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Date: Mon, 06 Dec 1999 23:16:39 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: sat loop
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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hey all, i'm back with my loops again.
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/longloop.gif (370k)
this will be updated regularly if anyones interested
cyas
this weather sux!!
steve
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002
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 6 Dec 1999 23:35:55 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Cyclone WA later in week?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All,
Some of you may be interested in today's TC Outlook from BoM WA, pasted below.
Seems conditions are becoming more favourable for TC development later in
the week off NW WA.
Regards,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IDW51W00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTH WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 12:00pm WST on Monday the 6th of December 1999
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST
There are no significant disturbances over the region.
There is little evidence today of the weak low near Timor that was
mentioned yesterday.
An increase in cloud activity and/or organisation is possible towards the
end of
the week over tropical waters to the north of WA, with conditions becoming more
favourable for cyclone development.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
carls at ace-net.com.au
Cyclone Tracking Maps Website:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information Page:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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003
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: ThunderDownUnder '99 - Brief Chase Summary
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 1999 00:10:20 +1000
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Does anyone know what happened to the UK guys?
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004
Date: Mon, 6 Dec 1999 09:19:40 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: ThunderDownUnder '99 - Brief Chase Summary
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Jane and All:
It was great to hear of all your success and rather clearly how all enjoyed
each other's company! It sounded as though all had fun and without
accident, at least from this very distant vantage point. Here, after
recording the warmest November on record, we finally had two days of rain
and then snow yesterday. We only had about 2 to 6 cm of snow here but up
to a about 30 cm not far (~100 km to 150 km) north.
BTW, I did not chase the cold rain nor the snow......LOL
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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005
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Is Summer FInally Going To Arrive in Brisbane?
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 1999 00:08:40 +1000
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Hi Anthony,
Yes it is feeling distinctly hotter & drier now at Mt. Crosby. While
Brisbane AP may not have reached 30C yet, move 26K's west of the city & it
is a different story. We have had a number of 30+ days now, and today was
30.0C also. Noticed some distant storm activity on the SW horizon while
driving home at sundown, maybe we'll all be chasing next Sunday!
John.
>snip
Well - today was the first day that actually felt like summer. Even
though temps were below average at 27C, - there was a summery smell in
the air this evening, this was enforced by the night jasmine, which for
many years when I was young, used as a sign to herald a sign of a summer
pattern setting in for a reasonable period of time.
At 8:30pm, it was 22.8C, and a DP of 17C - a far cry from the 26C with a
DP of 22C I'd like, but it's better than the past few days! I don't
believe Brisbane has reached 30C yet this season? Can some one
confirm/correct me?
Brisbane might even get some storms during the weekend (yes, you heard
that right - Brisbane might get storms - aka, ridge over us will break
down as a trough moves through!!!) Sure beats these SE winds, with
light NE seabreezes.
This next system looks like it could be a beauty for much of the eastern
states, lets hope it delievers its promise. The strong jet right on the
front/trough is certainly very encouraging - Michael Thompson believes
it'll be a beauty too - because he'll be back home by then! *lol*
--
Anthony Cornelius
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006
Date: Mon, 06 Dec 1999 15:06:50 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ThunderDownUnder '99 - Brief Chase Summary
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John Woodbridge wrote:
> Does anyone know what happened to the UK guys?
Here's the story - I work as a systems analyst and got shafted on my last
contract - i didn't get paid until Friday and am now suing them for breach of
contract. This stuffed everything - the wife isn't talking to me - telling me
to get a permanent job - etc.
I was stung for 2500 UKP. )):
I'm still here but not at home very often as I'm still picking up the
pieces..... ):
Les
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007
From: Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu]
Subject: aus-wx: operational model availability
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Mon, 6 Dec 1999 19:40:14 +0000 (GMT)
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Folks,
Some balancing/guessing might be required for
the model output of the days to come (see attachm.).
Recommendation for the "remaining" chasers out
in the field: pick up some dirt with your left hand,
throw it into the gentle breeze and decide: will the
twister turn right or not ....
Harald
----- Begin Included Message -----
362
NOUS42 KWNO 061543
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
1541Z UTC MON DEC 6 1999
061541Z...12Z NCEP MODELS ARE ON THE BACKUP SCHEDULE TIMES
AND ARE PROCEEDING SUCCESSFULLY...ETA IS WORKING OUT TO 24 HRS
AND THE NGM IS WORKING ON THE ANAL...THE AVN HAS STARTED..RAOB
RECAP..MFL SHV CAR LAP ACA EQUIP PROBLEMS..FFC DEL WNDS 217MB UP
BAD DIR/SLOW...KPB NO PART A...ZBZ DEL WNDS 200 TO 180MB BAD DIR..
..NEXT IBM OUTAGE...
AFTER NCEP COMES BACK ON THE IBM THIS EVENING..00Z 12/7 THE NEXT IBM
OUTAGE WILL BE FROM 12/8 1200Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12/10 1200Z FRIDAY..
SINCE THIS OUTAGE IS GREATER THAN 24 HRS..THE IBM WILL TAKE LONGER TO
SPIN UP AND NCEP MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RESUME ON THE IBM UNTIL 00Z
SATURDAY...DELAYS WILL PERSIST WHILE IN THE BACKUP MODE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD BUT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE MRF WILL RUN ON THE
SLOWER CRAY 5 DURING THIS SECOND OUTAGE...EXPECT MRF DELAYS....
SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP
---------- End Forwarded Message ----------
--
------------------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
Postdoctoral Research Associate
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
State University of New York at Albany
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494
spatz at atmos.albany.edu
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
------------------------------------------------------
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008
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Cairns Radar & Mornington Island
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 1999 09:46:43 +0930
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Howdy all.
I was wondering if the BOM guys that subscribe to this list know why Cairns &
Mornington Island radars are still out and have been for the last few days?
Paul at Darwin.
PS Here it is overcast, still lovely & warm 27c with DP of 26.
Great storm out to sea last night with cg lightning on request!
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009
From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au
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Date: Tue, 7 Dec 1999 14:06:00 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: SE NSW looking good for storms
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Just had a look at the Wagga sounding - it is almost perfect for explosive,
pulse development later this afternoon. There is a warm layer (cap of 5.4C)
between 1500m and 3000m. Anything that gets through that is likely to really
take off.
I also notice quite a few DP's in the mid-high teens along the tablelands (which
is quite high for us).
At 2.00pm (Tues 7 December) some very impressive congestus are building to the
west of Canberra. I am expecting an entertaining late afternoon/evening.
Yesterday a small group of pulse Cb cells developed around 5pm and persisted for
a couple of hours on the ranges to the south.
Patrick
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010
From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au
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Date: Tue, 7 Dec 1999 14:35:15 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE NSW looking good for storms (2)
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A number of cells have now glaciated well to the west of Canberra - with very
sharp tops and crisp, well defined anvils. Upper outflow does not look that
strong at this stage but is hard to observe from this distance.
A nice cell with quite a bit of red on the radar has also developed to the west
of Bathurst.
Patrick (2.30 pm)
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011
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE NSW looking good for storms
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 1999 14:34:57 +1100
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Nice cell into the red just south of Orange - anyone know where Greg,
Michael, Matt & Gabby are?????
Jane
Melbourne
----- Original Message -----
From: [Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Tuesday, 7 December 1999 3:06
Subject: aus-wx: SE NSW looking good for storms
>
>
> Just had a look at the Wagga sounding - it is almost perfect for
explosive,
> pulse development later this afternoon. There is a warm layer (cap of
5.4C)
> between 1500m and 3000m. Anything that gets through that is likely to
really
> take off.
>
> I also notice quite a few DP's in the mid-high teens along the tablelands
(which
> is quite high for us).
>
> At 2.00pm (Tues 7 December) some very impressive congestus are building to
the
> west of Canberra. I am expecting an entertaining late afternoon/evening.
>
> Yesterday a small group of pulse Cb cells developed around 5pm and
persisted for
> a couple of hours on the ranges to the south.
>
> Patrick
>
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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012
X-Originating-IP: [210.9.51.34]
From: "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA
Date: Tue, 07 Dec 1999 15:02:59 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1432 on Tuesday the 7th of December 1999
This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
Central West Slopes south of Dubbo,
Central Tablelands,
Southern Tablelands north of the Hume Highway,
South West Slopes north of the Sturt and Hume Highways.
Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area until 8:30pm.
Some of these are expected to be severe, bringing large hailstones,
destructive winds and very heavy rainfall.
______________________________________________________
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013
From: kevans at kisser.net.au
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Cyclone by the weekend ?
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 1999 12:54:40 +0800
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Hey all looks like the time has alomost come for
the FIRST TC of the season :)
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN
REGIONAL OFFICE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIA
Issued at 12:00pm WST on Tuesday the 7th of December 1999
For
the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST
There are no significant disturbances over the
region at present.
However, towards the end of the week, computer models are
predicting the
development of a tropical low over waters to the north of the
state. This has
some potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.
There is extensive cloud in the tropical
convergence zone, and winds over the
area have become more favourable for
development.
This situation will be monitored, and more information will be
provided as the
week progresses.
Jason
aka JuNgLeJiM
Karratha W.A
014
X-Originating-IP: [210.9.51.34]
From: "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Chase Update 4:30pm
Date: Tue, 07 Dec 1999 16:35:42 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey All
Just spoke to Matt Smith who is still with Greg and Gab, they are just
leaving Merriwa heading towards Mudgee as we speak and according to Matt
they can see the towers goingup and some very nice anvils on some of them
also. He also mentioned there seemed to be a monster near Narrabri they
could see in the horizon.
They are goingot Mudgee / Gulgong to have a closer look at them. Radar shows
cells forming all around the area in the yellow and pink with a very
dominate cell south of Bathurst which has persisted all afternoon. Looks
great on the IR sat pics also.
No doubt they will be amongst it all in around 30 - 60 minutes.
Also Michael Thompson who left the group earlier to head home is according
to Matt right underneath the main action already so hopefully should have
some great reports from him.
James H
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015
From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 1999 16:30:38 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Great overshooting tops to the NW of Canberra
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OK if I have to sit in an office this PM, then the view is currently not too bad
at all... There are some fantastic overshooting tops in the many cells to the
NW. There must be some pretty intense activity underneath some of those
monsters out on the SW Slopes near Wagga. (I hope the harvest is finished
out that way - because any crops under those storms will be finished....)
Locally in Canberra, things have gone a bit quieter with the DP slipping to 7
(dry bulb is 30) and the cu thinning out. We will have to await the arrival of
the seabreeze front in a couple of hours time to prod things along and supply
some more moisture.
Patrick
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016
From: "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE NSW looking good for storms
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 1999 20:15:09 +1300
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And northern NZ too. There is a classic scenario for summer hail and
thunder storms in the upper North Island - a cool unstable southerly
airflow, plus sunny skies allowing ground heating. There have already been
some scattered storms today, and there could be more tomorrow as the
situation looks unlikely to change. Meanwhile it's fine and settled over
much of the South Island, except the Kaikura coast. (where it only got to a
11 C max today in the southerly flow)
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017
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Date: Tue, 07 Dec 1999 18:08:19 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: STA for SA
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hi ppls
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
Issued at 5:50 pm on Tuesday, 7 December 1999
For people in the West Coast district west of Ceduna.
Severe winds are possible with thunderstorms west of Ceduna during this
evening.
If thunderstorms do develop in your area, localised damage may occur and
you are
advised to take sensible precautions. For example, secure loose outside
objects, drive with extra caution and seek shelter while the storm passes over.
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018
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: SE NSW Storms
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 1999 18:54:16 +1100
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Why oh why am I in Wollongong now when I could be in Taralga?
A ver attractive squall line with red echos embeded has developend in a
line (approx) from west of Taralga to the north of the ACT. I just rang
the olds to warn them of probable rough stuff. Not good for grape vine
leaves!!
Andrew.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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019
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Date: Tue, 07 Dec 1999 19:23:12 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: New SA Page up and running ( almost )
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi ppls,
Just to let you know the Official South Australian Severe Weather watch
homepage is now up and running at http://sastorms.virtualave.net the only
link that wont work just yet is the gallery as I am still gathering
information for it.
The storms near Eucla look very nice on radar aswell Don't think Adelaide
will get much tonight except for a few spots of rain :(
regards Andrew
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
020
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 1999 06:20:21 -0600 (CST)
From: Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Favourable Conditions for Supercells in Vic/S NSW...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
LOoks like this next upper system may hold some hope for supercells
through Victoria and perhaps S NSW but not really any further N juding
from the NGP and Bureua's forecast winds. A moderate jet at the 300 level
will move into Victoria tomorrow along with the surface front.
Possibly thursday or friday may see conditions favourable in central
eastern NSW but it doesn't look favourable for anywhere further N at this
stage.
- Paul G.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
021
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
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Date: Tue, 07 Dec 1999 23:04:21 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: AMOS Meeting
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone,
I would like to remind all of those interested in the next coming NSW
combined ASWA-AMOS Weatherwatch meeting. This is to be held at Macquarie
University on Wednesday15th December. The room is E5A143. There is the
usual parking but you must bring along change for say $4 so you don't get a
fine. The meeting begins at 7:30pm. Of course there will be the usual
refreshments there at the meeting.
Some may be interested to go to the Middle of Nowehere Resturant for a
brief supper before the meeting which begins at 6pm and then we move on to
the meeting from there. This is optional for those who have the time. If
you are interested in going to the dinner as well then please contact Alan
Williams via e-mail at least by Monday 13th December so that he can get a
good grip on numbers.
The main theme of the meeting is to discuss recent severe storm events:
particularly those of the End-Of-Year major storm chase undertaken recently
by some ASWA members. There will be open discussion as well as commentary
and video footage. We do suspect one of the supercells produced a tornado
and there is footage of the dust whirls and funnel observed by the chasers
and the excitement that go with it!!! You will also enjoy the spectacular
squall line footage and its story. So come along and have a great time and
meet others with a similar interest to yourself. There will be photos as
well so don't hesitate to bring yours along.
Of course, both visitors and members from both ASWA and AMOS are always
welcome. If you have never come along or have not been for a while, do come
along. Your attendance is very much appreciated and you are guaranteed to
enjoy yourself.
See you there next Wednesday 15th December. I am going to the dinner as
well lest I forget..
Jimmy Deguara
President of ASWA and member of AMOS
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
| Document: 991207.htm
Updated: 11 December 1999 |
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