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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Tuesday, 14 December 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Re: Heavy Rain
002 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] Chase Report.
003 "Keith" [kevans at kisser.net.au] Cat 4 TC John moving towards our area
004 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Cat 4 TC John moving towards our area
005 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au OSEI
006 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] Re: Heavy Rain (TC's colliding)
007 "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Cyclone John - Radar
008 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au Re Chase report, Canberra congestus and TC John
009 vortex at wwdg.com TC competition
010 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au Severe TC John
011 Susan Puddifer [susanpud at healey.com.au] Cyclone
012 "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com] re : TC's colliding
013 "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com] correction
014 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] ILSA and JOHN animations updated
015 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au correction
016 "Michael Fewings" [mike at strikeone.com.au] re : TC's colliding
017 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] re : TC's colliding
018 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Re: TC's colliding.
019 Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Dew Points
020 Ben Munro [benjamin at biosys.net] Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
021 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Dew Points
022 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] OSEI
023 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
024 Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
025 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Re: TC's colliding.
026 Jonty Hall [jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au] Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
027 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] OSEI
028 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
029 "Rod Aikman" [raikman at hotmail.com] Nine network anals & progs
030 "Steve" [sselka at ozemail.com.au] Cyclone
031 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] Nine network anals & progs
032 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Nine network anals & progs
033 Ben Munro [benjamin at biosys.net] Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
034 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
035 Ben Munro [benjamin at biosys.net] Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
036 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC's ILSA and JOHN animations updated.
037 Jonty Hall [jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au] Re: TC's colliding.
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001
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
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Date: Wed, 15 Dec 1999 00:19:03 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Heavy Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
If 2 TC's collide, i am pretty sure they shear each other to shreds Paul...
dont quote me on that, but i remember 3 TC's at once around the coral sea
last season, (although 2 were weak) they all died with winds just going all
over the place.
If im wrong, someone correct me please :)
Matt Smith
>Chris - I agree with you wholeheartdley!! I keep asking the Locals where
>all these great storms are........... They say be patient.
>
>By the way what happens if 2 TC/s collide?
>Rgds, Paul.
>
>Chris Gribben wrote:
>I think that unfortunately Narmarrgon -
>> the lightning maker in Aboriginal culture - decided that last year Darwin
>> got more than its share and this year decided to concentrate around
Adelaide
>> River and surrounding area. Though I have my suspicions that it was the
fact
>> there were 2 AWSA members up there at the same time - that is sure to drive
>> them off . I noticed the first night I got back that there were storms
>> there at night so I think my theory has some merit :-)
>>
>> Chris
>>
>> ______________________________________________________
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002
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Chase Report.
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 07:28:54 +1100
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OK - maybe we should let the rest of the country in on some of the
terminology.....
tripod = attractive young female
Jane
----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Thompson [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Monday, 13 December 1999 9:26
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Chase Report.
> ??????????????
>
>
> > > 2. and what are the ' few other things ' that Bourke Bowling Club is
> good
> > > for ?
> >
> > "The Tripod" !!!!!!!!
> >
> >
>
>
>
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003
From: "Keith" [kevans at kisser.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Cat 4 TC John moving towards our area
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 05:04:05 +0800
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Hey all,
Well things are certainly forecast to happen up
here in the NW in the next 24hrs!
Check out these Warnings/Forecasts
KARRATHA:
A warning for a severe category 4
tropical cyclone is current. Showers and
thunderstorms increasing and
tending to heavy rain this afternoon, increasing
further to flood rain
tonight. Winds strengthening to Gale force during the
morning, then to storm
force during the afternoon and hurricane force tonight.
Maximum temperature: 35
UV Index: 15
[EXTREME] decreasing to 6 [HIGH] under cloud
PILBARA:
A warning for a severe category 4
tropical cyclone is now current for coastal
areas between Wallal and Mardie.
A cyclone watch extends southwest to Exmouth.
Showers and thunderstorms
increasing and tending to heavy rain this afternoon,
increasing further to
flood rain tonight. Winds strengthening to Gale force
during the morning,
then to storm force during the afternoon and hurricane force
tonight.
Outlook for Wednesday :Heavy to flood rain. TC JOHN close to the
coast.
PORT HEDLAND TO CAPE PRESTON: HURRICANE/STORM
WARNING.
E/NE winds 35/45 knots, strengthening to 45/60 knots during the
morning,
reaching 60/75 knots in offshore waters during the afternoon and
extending to
inshore waters tonight. Seas rising to 14m. Swell rising to
12m.
And the latest Advice.......still on blue
alert
<!--StartFragment-->BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning
Signal should be sounded immediately before
broadcasting this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN ADVICE NUMBER
8
Issued at 3:55 am WST on Tuesday, 14 December 1999
BY THE BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A WARNING for a
SEVERE CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas between
Wallal and
Mardie.
<!--StartFragment-->A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to
Exmouth.
At 3am WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN was estimated to be 285
kilometres
northnorthwest of Port Hedland and 345 kilometres northnortheast
of Karratha and
moving south southwest at 10 kilometres per
hour.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are developing on the
coast during
this morning. The most severe conditions are likely tonight and
tomorrow
morning.
Details of severe cyclone John at 3am
WST.
<!--StartFragment-->Location of centre : within 30 kilometres
of
Latitude 17.8 South Longitude 118.0 East.
Recent
movement : southsouthwest at 10 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 945 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 235
kilometres per hour near the
centre.
Severity category : 4.
The State Emergency Service
advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT
Wallal,
Sandfire, 80 Mile Beach, Pardoo, Warralong, Port and South
Hedland,
Yandeyarra, Whim Creek, Point Samson, Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha
and Dampier.
The next advice will be issued at 7:00 am
WST.
Currently at 5am its 29.2C wind is relatively light
E, pressure 999.2 and falling
We'll keep you informed as things
develope
Regards Jason and Keith
Karratha W.A
004
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 08:22:46 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cat 4 TC John moving towards our area
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Just thought I'd let you know that OSEI has finally released some
imagery of TC John (well, one sat photo - hopefully more will come in
the next 12-24hrs!). For those who haven't been to the site, OSEI has
the best free satellite imagery available on the net - hands down, no
competition/ifs/buts about it.
Their latest image is at:
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/IndOcean/TRCjohn347_GM.jpg
Their site is at: http://www.osei.noaa.gov/
Goto "current," it has their latest imagery. Don't bother loading up
any imagery with a "P" beside it, it's just a smaller version and is
just a preview of the original.
> Keith wrote:
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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005
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: OSEI
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 08:14:30 +0930
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Anthony - that is definately the best I have ever seen - excellent - for those
who havnt seen it have a look!
Amazing clarity and definition - even those storms over the Pilbara are
spectaular!!
Is it real light or enhanced ??
Paul
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006
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re: Heavy Rain (TC's colliding)
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 09:49:40 +1000
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In fact...
I recall 2 respectable TC's colliding off the NW WA coast some 20 odd years
ago. The result was just one larger TC. Perhaps Blair or someone could
provide the details.
John.
>snip
If 2 TC's collide, i am pretty sure they shear each other to shreds Paul...
dont quote me on that, but i remember 3 TC's at once around the coral sea
last season, (although 2 were weak) they all died with winds just going all
over the place.
If im wrong, someone correct me please :)
Matt Smith
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007
From: "Andrew Miskelly" [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Cyclone John - Radar
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 11:21:17 +1100
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Hi all,
The Dampier Broad Loop is now showing some spectacular stuff from Cyclone
John. The eye is now visible behind all the echos. Check it out.
Andrew.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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008
From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 11:24:29 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Re Chase report, Canberra congestus and TC John
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Thanks Jane - no doubt there are other more interesting stories
yet to emerge.....?
Hopefully we are back to storm mode in Canberra from this afternoon
(a western slopes trough is in action) to last through to Friday.
At 11.00 some large congestus are building on the Brindabellas.
I would expect storms to develop from lunchtime onwards.
TC John looks like it is going to pack a punch when it crosses the
coast - good luck (and safe observing) to those who are going to
be underneath it. Thanks Anthony for the OSEI link - very
spectacular.
PS I wonder if that extreme Cyclone chaser from NZ is on his way
over?
OK - maybe we should let the rest of the country in on some of the
terminology.....
tripod = attractive young female
Jane
----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Thompson [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Monday, 13 December 1999 9:26
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Chase Report.
> ??????????????
>
>
> > > 2. and what are the ' few other things ' that Bourke Bowling Club is
> good
> > > for ?
> >
> > "The Tripod" !!!!!!!!
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009
From: vortex at wwdg.com
Date: Mon, 13 Dec 1999 19:16:43 -0700
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: TC competition
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Thanks All. Who would have guessed that I would have won!!! And it was a complete fluke as well. Maybe I should listen to the things that just pop into my head more often.
Paul.
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010
From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 16:06:31 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Severe TC John
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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This is one hell of a beast - central pressure now down to 925 (it was 945
earlier today)...
the text of the warning says it all,
Patrick
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should be sounded immediately before
broadcasting this warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 12:50 pm WST on Tuesday, 14 December 1999
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 4 TROPICAL CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
between Wallal and Onslow and inland to Pannawonica.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to Exmouth and inland to Newman,
Tom Price and Paraburdoo.
As at 1pm WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN continued to intensify and was
located 225 kilometres northnorthwest of Port Hedland and 245 kilometres
northnortheast of Karratha and moving southsouthwest at 15 kilometres per hour.
It will be near the coast tomorrow morning.
Winds increasing today and very destructive and dangerous winds with gusts to
265 kilometres per hour will occur overnight or during tomorrow near the cyclone
centre.
Residents in coastal towns are warned of the potential for very dangerous storm
tides as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides may rise up to 7 metres
above expected with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding. Very heavy rain
and widespread flooding is likely in the Pilbara over the next few days.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN at 1pm WST.
Location of centre : within 30 kilometres of
Latitude 18.6 South Longitude 117.5 East.
Recent movement : southsouthwest at 15 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 925 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 265 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 4.
The State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Warralong, Yandeyarra,
and Pardoo.
BLUE ALERT: Tom Price, Marble Bar, Pannawonica, Paraburdoo, Roebourne, Wickham,
Point Samson, Karratha, Mardie and Onslow.
The next advice will be issued at 4:00 pm WST. This advice is available by
dialling 1300 659 210. For inquiries about community alerts contact the State
Emergency Service.
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011
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 17:14:07 +1000
From: Susan Puddifer [susanpud at healey.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 (Macintosh; I; PPC)
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Subject: aus-wx: Cyclone
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Susan from Balmain
Good hunting to the boys in Karratha - just stay safe and keep your
heads down. Hope all goes well for you
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012
X-Originating-IP: [210.84.131.98]
From: "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: re : TC's colliding
Date: Mon, 13 Dec 1999 22:45:31 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all, I'd have to go with Matt Smith with this,just because when the two
cyclones do meet - their winds are in the opposite direction to each other.
So whether it becomes one big depression again for a few days and then
reforms I'm not sure - but it has to be a rare event that 2 TC's merge and
stay as a TC. What would they call it in this case if it did occur - Jola or
Ilhn
Good luck to our friends in Karratha - hope things are ok there
Chris
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013
X-Originating-IP: [210.84.131.98]
From: "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: correction
Date: Mon, 13 Dec 1999 22:48:58 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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hmmmm, when you try to be a smart alec it is best to get it right - that
should have been Josa not Jola. Be a while till I try that again I think -
lol. Sorry for the non-wx related email
Chris
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014
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 17:14:45 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: ILSA and JOHN animations updated
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All.
Server problems have delayed the updating, and the email was down as well!
>From the BoM information, SEVERE TC JOHN with winds gusting to 265 km/hr
near the centre is now impacting on the coast with above gale force winds
from around Port Hedland to Dampier. The winds are likely to increase
steadily during the evening and overnight. Looks like Wednesday morning
could see very severe Cat 4 conditions along part of the Pilbara coast,
especially in the Karratha area, depending on future movement. Hope you
have all secured your homes and are prepared for a long and very windy
night!
Please refer to the official BoM information if you live in or near the
areas affected.
Frame #11 has been added to the SEVERE TC JOHN Cat 3 map animation are
on-line at http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/John.htm.
Frame #14 has been added to the TC ISLA Cat 1 map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Ilsa.htm.
Both animations are also accessable near the top of my Current Cyclone
Information page at http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm alongside
the links to the TC information from BoM and JTWC.
Regards,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
carls at ace-net.com.au
Cyclone Tracking Maps Website:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information Page:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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015
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: correction
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 16:49:51 +0930
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But was TC "Jola" a showgirl with yellow ribbons in her hair......
:-)
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016
From: "Michael Fewings" [mike at strikeone.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: re : TC's colliding
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 15:15:13 +0800
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Hi all,
Cyclones will not "collide" and merge because they are two completely
different systems operating off ocean surface moist air. Each cyclone causes
significant shear from clockwise inflow at the bottom to anticlockwise
outflow at the top.
What happens when two cyclones get close to each other is that the shear
from one weakens the other and eventually completely destroys it if they get
close enough. In the case of Ilsa and John, John would survive due to its
size and Ilsa would likely be sheared to death. John would also suffer
marginally but not too much.
Kind regards
--
Michael Fewings
----- Original Message -----
From: Chris Gribben [chrisgribben at hotmail.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Tuesday, December 14, 1999 2:45 PM
Subject: aus-wx: re : TC's colliding
> Hi all, I'd have to go with Matt Smith with this,just because when the two
> cyclones do meet - their winds are in the opposite direction to each
other.
> So whether it becomes one big depression again for a few days and then
> reforms I'm not sure - but it has to be a rare event that 2 TC's merge and
> stay as a TC. What would they call it in this case if it did occur - Jola
or
> Ilhn
>
> Good luck to our friends in Karratha - hope things are ok there
>
> Chris
>
>
>
> ______________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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017
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: re : TC's colliding
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 17:31:45 +1000
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Hi Chris,
Well it has happened and the circulation of one was absorbed into the other,
without any loss of intensity. If you think about it, the speed and
direction of wind at any point in a system is a function of the pressure
gradient at that spot.
So as the two cyclones approach each other, the winds between the two
centres abate and the outer circulation develops an hourglass shape.
john.
>snip
Hi all, I'd have to go with Matt Smith with this,just because when the two
cyclones do meet - their winds are in the opposite direction to each other.
So whether it becomes one big depression again for a few days and then
reforms I'm not sure - but it has to be a rare event that 2 TC's merge and
stay as a TC. What would they call it in this case if it did occur - Jola or
Ilhn
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018
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 17:24:13 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Re: TC's colliding.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All.
If 2 TC's tried to collide, as Matt Smith indicates, the result would most
likely be the cancelling of the TC's by the interaction of winds from
opposite directions. Both would be dissapated, to form a large disorganised
area of low pressure.
If one of the TC's was particularly severe, it could cause a smaller TC to
dissapate as it came near, whilst the more intense one would lose some of
it's own intensity - this would allow it to re-intensity afterwards if
conditions were right.
Such a scenario would be quite rare.
Regards,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
carls at ace-net.com.au
Cyclone Tracking Maps Website:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information Page:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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019
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 17:49:39 +0930
From: Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Dew Points
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Howdy all.
1. What does a really low DP mean?
2. What is the lowest DP people have seen?
I just saw Alice Springs DP for today - it came in at minus 5. Just
havnt seen that before..................
Thanx. Paul.
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020
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Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 19:24:17 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ben Munro [benjamin at biosys.net]
Subject: aus-wx: Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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The latest warning from the BoM (0800z) has TC John as a Category 5 storm,
with gusts to 290km/h and central pressure of 915 hPa.
JTWC doesn't appear to have updated since the report at 0300z which says
that at 0z sustained winds were 115kt (210km/h) and gusts to 140kt (260km/h)
Seems to have been quite a few category 5 cyclones around lately, with the
two last year (Vance and Thelma).
Ben Munro
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021
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 18:34:45 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dew Points
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Hi Paul and all,
Paul Mossman wrote:
>
> Howdy all.
>
> 1. What does a really low DP mean?
It's extremely dry.
> 2. What is the lowest DP people have seen?
0C is the lowest DP I've ever seen, but that's on a technicality.
Technically, DP's below 0C don't exist. You won't get dew under 0C (yes
I know there are exceptions in some circumstances), but once the DP goes
under 0C, it should technically be referred to as an "FP" (Frost Point).
The lowest DP/FP I've seen at the surface was 11F (-11.66C) at Las
Vegas, the air there was blistering dry, it was like being a plane
24hrs/day - where your nose actually starts to hurt from the dryness.
The static was a killer too! Everything metal you touched would zap
you, and some smart person decided to have metal buttons on the
elevators in our hotel...
They do of course get much lower, both at the surface, and in the upper
atmosphere. You cannot get a DP/FP higher than your surrounding
temperature (again, you can occassionally get these a fraction higher),
so if you see a surface temperature of -40C, then their DP/FP is likely
to be even lower then that!
The upper atmosphere frequently has DP/FP's of -50/-60 and lower.
> I just saw Alice Springs DP for today - it came in at minus 5. Just
> havnt seen that before..................
Brisbane rarely gets into the negative DP's or FP's - only in the most
savage SW'ly outbreaks.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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022
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 18:37:25 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: OSEI
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Hi Paul,
Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au wrote:
>
> Anthony - that is definately the best I have ever seen - excellent - for those
> who havnt seen it have a look!
>
> Amazing clarity and definition - even those storms over the Pilbara are
> spectaular!!
>
> Is it real light or enhanced ??
This imagery is only visible, it's not available in IR. But I do
believe that they enhance this through some process - not sure exactly
what though. Still, they're fantastic! If you want to see some great
images, go through their archives, you can get fires, TC's, storms,
severe wx etc - the list goes on and on. It's US bias, but they do TC's
for all over the world.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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023
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Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 19:36:17 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Even though I have taken a moderate interest in cyclones, I can say I read
an article last year which I think appeared in the Time Magazine:" someone
gave me the article. Jimmy doesn't normally read.
Well it was interesting to note that there were predictions of very severe
hurricanes in the US. Now there was a period of less sever hurricanes in
the US whilst the Florida area exploded in population because of the
paradise and popularity. Now since Hurricane Andrew and the last few, it
seems to be emerging a pattern of particularly severe hurricanes.
Perhaps the same thing or similar is happening in Australia. Perhaps the
right phase of conditions is taking place to maximise both numbers and
severity of cyclones in Australia.
Jimmy Deguara
At 19:24 14/12/99 +1100, you wrote:
>The latest warning from the BoM (0800z) has TC John as a Category 5 storm,
>with gusts to 290km/h and central pressure of 915 hPa.
>JTWC doesn't appear to have updated since the report at 0300z which says
>that at 0z sustained winds were 115kt (210km/h) and gusts to 140kt (260km/h)
>
>Seems to have been quite a few category 5 cyclones around lately, with the
>two last year (Vance and Thelma).
>
>Ben Munro
>
>
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024
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 18:21:55 +0930
From: Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.08 [en] (Win98; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
All I can say is - may God help Jason & Keith who seem to be in the path
of this monster - not alot survives a Cat 5 TC hitting full on.
Best wishes guys - they would definately be bunking down now as it is
expected to hit sometime tonight/early tomorrow............
Paul
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025
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 19:30:29 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: TC's colliding.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Hi All.
>
>If 2 TC's tried to collide, as Matt Smith indicates, the result would most
>likely be the cancelling of the TC's by the interaction of winds from
>opposite directions. Both would be dissapated, to form a large disorganised
>area of low pressure.
>
>If one of the TC's was particularly severe, it could cause a smaller TC to
>dissapate as it came near, whilst the more intense one would lose some of
>it's own intensity - this would allow it to re-intensity afterwards if
>conditions were right.
Hmm, I'm sure I've heard an account of two TC's coming together in the
northern Pacific. I'm not sure what the outcome was, but I'm pretty sure
that they rotated around a 'common center of gravity' (based on thier
respective strengths) for a while. Does this sound plausible?
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
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026
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 20:03:51 -1100 (DST)
From: Jonty Hall [jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Ben,
In fact, there were 4 category 5 cyclones last season - the ones you
mentioned, plus Gwenda and Frederic, although the latter did not become a
category 5 until it had moved out of the Australian region. At its peak,
Gwenda was probably the most intense of the lot.
Cheers,
Jonty.
____________________________________________________________________
Jonty Hall jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au
CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
Monash University
Wellington Road,
Clayton, Vic 3168
Ph +61 3 9905 9684
____________________________________________________________________
On Tue, 14 Dec 1999, Ben Munro wrote:
> The latest warning from the BoM (0800z) has TC John as a Category 5 storm,
> with gusts to 290km/h and central pressure of 915 hPa.
> JTWC doesn't appear to have updated since the report at 0300z which says
> that at 0z sustained winds were 115kt (210km/h) and gusts to 140kt (260km/h)
>
> Seems to have been quite a few category 5 cyclones around lately, with the
> two last year (Vance and Thelma).
>
> Ben Munro
>
>
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027
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 18:59:29 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OSEI
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone,
I have built a section at BSCH called "Spectacular Images" and it
contains hundreds (almost 450 or so from memory) of images like the one
Paul and Anthony are talking about.. what i have done is just go through
the archives that are on the net and pulled out the best pictures (all
of the images are in the public domain) and thumb nailed them for easier
viewing..
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/archiveddata/spectacular.htm
There are some KNOCKOUT images in there.. not just Tropical Cyclone
images either, plenty of Thunderstorm images as well..
Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>
> Hi Paul,
>
> Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au wrote:
> >
> > Anthony - that is definately the best I have ever seen - excellent - for those
> > who havnt seen it have a look!
> >
> > Amazing clarity and definition - even those storms over the Pilbara are
> > spectaular!!
> >
> > Is it real light or enhanced ??
>
> This imagery is only visible, it's not available in IR. But I do
> believe that they enhance this through some process - not sure exactly
> what though. Still, they're fantastic! If you want to see some great
> images, go through their archives, you can get fires, TC's, storms,
> severe wx etc - the list goes on and on. It's US bias, but they do TC's
> for all over the world.
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> 14 Kinsella St
> Belmont, Brisbane
> QLD, 4153
> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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028
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Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 05:12:25 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
On behalf of all the WA ASWA people i just want to say to the guys up
there that our thoughts are with you. We all love and appreciate severe
weather but no one wishes this upon anyone. So keep your heads down guys.
Oh & to God if your reading this, please be gentle...............
Ira Fehlberg
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029
X-Originating-IP: [203.27.197.55]
From: "Rod Aikman" [raikman at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 21:07:42 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I have a question that may be someone can answer: where does the Nine TV
network obtain their forecasts, satelite images, analysis, and prognostic
charts? The reason I ask this question is because I was watching the weather
report at the end of the 6.30 pm news bulletin this evening, and the
prognostic time lapse chart showed a developing warm front over Victoria
during the next 24 hours. Such a scenario seems rather unlikely considering
the present synoptic situation; and none of the BoM charts indicate any such
development in the next 24 hours.
Rod Aikman,
Bendigo, Vic.
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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030
From: "Steve" [sselka at ozemail.com.au]
To: "severeweather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Cyclone
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 21:24:27 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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Hey everyone check the Dampier radar out.
Steve from Ellangowan
031
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 20:35:31 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Rod, everyone..
I can't answer your question, but i've seen channel ten in Brisbane show
a 2 day old satellite picture loop before! They were saying "mostly
clear conditions prevailed over much of southern QLD" and the loop
contained a stack of high topped thunderstorms over the SE quarter of
Queensland.. Shockers..
Rod Aikman wrote:
>
> I have a question that may be someone can answer: where does the Nine TV
> network obtain their forecasts, satelite images, analysis, and prognostic
> charts? The reason I ask this question is because I was watching the weather
> report at the end of the 6.30 pm news bulletin this evening, and the
> prognostic time lapse chart showed a developing warm front over Victoria
> during the next 24 hours. Such a scenario seems rather unlikely considering
> the present synoptic situation; and none of the BoM charts indicate any such
> development in the next 24 hours.
> Rod Aikman,
> Bendigo, Vic.
>
> ______________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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032
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Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 21:48:08 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Michael Bath can do one better than that!!! It seemed that Channel Nine
here in Sydney had the repeated the satpic so Michael Bath rang them. They
denied it was happening and so after a couple more days of the same satpic,
he rang again. Just think of it - the same satpic or synoptic chart for a
week that don't even match each other!!!
Jimmy Deguara
At 20:35 14/12/99 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi Rod, everyone..
>
>I can't answer your question, but i've seen channel ten in Brisbane show
>a 2 day old satellite picture loop before! They were saying "mostly
>clear conditions prevailed over much of southern QLD" and the loop
>contained a stack of high topped thunderstorms over the SE quarter of
>Queensland.. Shockers..
>
>
>Rod Aikman wrote:
> >
> > I have a question that may be someone can answer: where does the Nine TV
> > network obtain their forecasts, satelite images, analysis, and prognostic
> > charts? The reason I ask this question is because I was watching the
> weather
> > report at the end of the 6.30 pm news bulletin this evening, and the
> > prognostic time lapse chart showed a developing warm front over Victoria
> > during the next 24 hours. Such a scenario seems rather unlikely considering
> > the present synoptic situation; and none of the BoM charts indicate any
> such
> > development in the next 24 hours.
> > Rod Aikman,
> > Bendigo, Vic.
> >
> > ______________________________________________________
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033
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Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 22:08:42 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ben Munro [benjamin at biosys.net]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Jonty,
Even more cat 5's than I thought.
I just looked up some data from JTWC, via
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/
Frederic peaked at sutained winds of 155kt
Gwenda peaked at 130kt
Vance peaked at 125kt
and Thelma peaked at 135kt
JTWC now has John at 120knots and still strengthening.
Ben Munro
At 20:03 14-12-99 -1100, you wrote:
>Hi Ben,
>
>In fact, there were 4 category 5 cyclones last season - the ones you
>mentioned, plus Gwenda and Frederic, although the latter did not become a
>category 5 until it had moved out of the Australian region. At its peak,
>Gwenda was probably the most intense of the lot.
>
>Cheers,
>
>Jonty.
>
>____________________________________________________________________
>
>Jonty Hall jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au
>
>CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
>Monash University
>Wellington Road,
>Clayton, Vic 3168
>
>Ph +61 3 9905 9684
>
>____________________________________________________________________
>
>On Tue, 14 Dec 1999, Ben Munro wrote:
>
>> The latest warning from the BoM (0800z) has TC John as a Category 5 storm,
>> with gusts to 290km/h and central pressure of 915 hPa.
>> JTWC doesn't appear to have updated since the report at 0300z which says
>> that at 0z sustained winds were 115kt (210km/h) and gusts to 140kt
(260km/h)
>>
>> Seems to have been quite a few category 5 cyclones around lately, with the
>> two last year (Vance and Thelma).
>>
>> Ben Munro
>>
>>
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>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>
>
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034
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 21:22:33 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Ben Munro wrote:
>
> Hi Jonty,
> Even more cat 5's than I thought.
> I just looked up some data from JTWC, via
> http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/
>
> Frederic peaked at sutained winds of 155kt
> Gwenda peaked at 130kt
> Vance peaked at 125kt
> and Thelma peaked at 135kt
>
> JTWC now has John at 120knots and still strengthening.
Just remember that the AU TC scale takes into account:
- Maximum gusts &
- 10 minute sustained winds
JTWC gives you:
- Maximum gusts &
- 1 minute sustained winds (ie, the figures you just presented)
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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035
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Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 23:08:58 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ben Munro [benjamin at biosys.net]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Latest update on TC JOHN (Cat 5!)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Yes, I remember that. I was comparing apples with apples :)
Ben Munro
>Just remember that the AU TC scale takes into account:
>- Maximum gusts &
>- 10 minute sustained winds
>
>JTWC gives you:
>- Maximum gusts &
>- 1 minute sustained winds (ie, the figures you just presented)
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
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036
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 22:48:45 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC's ILSA and JOHN animations updated.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
It is taking considerably longer to update due to increasing number of
frames, perhaps I should cut both down to last 9 frames (48 hours). Any
suggedtions on this?
>From the BoM information, SEVERE TC JOHN with winds gusting to 290 km/hr
near the centre is now impacting on the coast with destructive winds from
around Port Hedland to Dampier. The winds are likely to increase steadily
during the evening and overnight. Looks like Wednesday morning could see
very destructive winds perhaps gusting up to 300 km/hr along part of the
Pilbara coast, especially in the Karratha area, depending on future
movement.
The 30 nm eye may pass directly over Karratha sometime in the early morning
if present trends continue. Hope you lot up there are well battened down
for a very long and windy night. Having been within 35 km of the centre of
a Cat 5 cyclone I have some idea of what you are experiencing.
Please refer to the official BoM information if you live in or near the
areas affected - in the near future, updates are likely to become hourly as
the threat increases.
Frame #12 has been added to the SEVERE TC JOHN Cat 5 map animation are
on-line at http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/John.htm.
Frame #15 has been added to the TC ISLA Cat 1 map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Ilsa.htm.
Both animations are also accessable near the top of my Current Cyclone
Information page at http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm alongside
the links to the TC information from BoM and JTWC.
Regards,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
carls at ace-net.com.au
Cyclone Tracking Maps Website:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information Page:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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037
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 1999 23:48:01 -1100 (DST)
From: Jonty Hall [jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: TC's colliding.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone,
The interaction between two tropical cyclones is actually an extremely
complex process. The classical theory is termed the "Fujiwara Effect", and
it calls for the systems to move around a sort of "centre of gravity".
There has been quite a bit of recent research into this though, and the
results do not seem to support this idea. The interaction is actually one
of the scenarios in which the baroclinic structure of cyclones becomes
very important (the other main one being recurvature). The broad upper
anticyclones can interact at quite large distances (thousands of km), and
the tilts of the vortices becomes very important if the approach is near
enough. Current ideas point to there being two critical radii - normally
referred to as the mutual approach separation (MAS) and the mutual merger
separation (MMS). Beyond the MAS, the interaction is fairly weak and
indirect, however once this critical radius is reached, then the cyclones
"capture" each other and effect each other's motion quite drastically. This
capture is very rapid (on the order of a few hours) and often leads to
sudden large track changes - obviously a hazard for forecasters! If the
MMS is reached, then a similarly rapid merger will take place - the exact
details depending on the structure of the two cyclones. If they are
similar, then they can merge very radiply and with little disruption. If
one is weaker than the other, then it is sheared into the flow of the
stronger one. Again, this is a pretty rapid process, although its effects
can be seen in oscillations of the track of the stronger cyclone for a
long time afterwards (one theory explains the medium size wobbles in
cyclones paths using this idea with a meso-vortex rather than another
cyclone as the weak member). This kind of interaction is pretty common in
the Western North Pacific, and not unknown in the Australian region.
Well, believe it or not, that's the short version!! But like I said,
it is a complex process! Sorry if I got a bit carried away - that tends to
happen with the first TC of the season about!
Cheers,
Jonty.
____________________________________________________________________
Jonty Hall jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au
CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
Monash University
Wellington Road,
Clayton, Vic 3168
Ph +61 3 9905 9684
____________________________________________________________________
On Tue, 14 Dec 1999, Phil Bagust wrote:
> >Hi All.
> >
> >If 2 TC's tried to collide, as Matt Smith indicates, the result would most
> >likely be the cancelling of the TC's by the interaction of winds from
> >opposite directions. Both would be dissapated, to form a large disorganised
> >area of low pressure.
> >
> >If one of the TC's was particularly severe, it could cause a smaller TC to
> >dissapate as it came near, whilst the more intense one would lose some of
> >it's own intensity - this would allow it to re-intensity afterwards if
> >conditions were right.
>
> Hmm, I'm sure I've heard an account of two TC's coming together in the
> northern Pacific. I'm not sure what the outcome was, but I'm pretty sure
> that they rotated around a 'common center of gravity' (based on thier
> respective strengths) for a while. Does this sound plausible?
>
> Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
> paisley at cobweb.com.au
> http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
>
>
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| Document: 991214.htm
Updated: 17 December 1999 |
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