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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Thursday, 16 December 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] TC John
002 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Nine network anals & progs
003 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Nine network anals & progs
004 Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au] TC John "Front Page News"
005 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] ERAD
006 "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz] TC John has made land...........
007 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Guyra info wanted
008 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] TC John has made land...........
009 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Nine network anals & progs
010 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] TC John has made land...........
011 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Nine network anals & progs - Media Attitude to W
012 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Nine network anals & progs
013 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Guyra Info
014 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Guyra info
015 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Nine network anals & progs
016 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Nine network anals & progs
017 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Ilsa and second influence
018 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] Nine network anals & progs
019 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] TC John has made land...........
020 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] World-wx (was Nine network anals & progs)
021 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Guyra info
022 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] JOHN and ILSA map animation server problems
023 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Nine network anals & progs
024 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] TC John has made land...........
025 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] Guyra info
026 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC ILSA WARNING
027 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] JTWC ILSA WARNING
028 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] TC John rainfall
029 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Re: TC ILSA WARNING
030 "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com] Sydney Development / cell
031 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au TC John rainfall
032 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] TC John rainfall
033 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] TC John Satellite Pictures + Radar
034 David Hart [dhart at world.std.com] Nine network anals & progs
035 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Nine network anals & progs
036 "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au] TC John Rainfall
037 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Storms...........at last
038 astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au] Delay on Snowtown pictures
039 Jonty Hall [jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au] TC John rainfall
040 steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au] loop of john
041 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Nine network anals & progs
042 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] Nine network anals & progs
043 Jonty Hall [jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au] Nine network anals & progs
044 Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Nine network anals & progs
045 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Nine network anals & progs
046 "Michael Powell" [mjpowell at mailcity.com] Nine network anals & progs
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001
Date: Wed, 15 Dec 1999 13:57:38 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: TC John
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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list -
Thats TC John made the lunchtime headlines at the BBC, footage of downed trees
and flooding , a roadsign pointing to Karratha / Dampier and some locals in a
community centre.... not a heavily populated area... any ASWA members there...
apparently the worst is over (for) now??
More here if you want a BBC viewpoint:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/asia-pacific/newsid_565000/565671.stm
Les
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002
Date: Wed, 15 Dec 1999 10:11:08 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
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Mark:
> The reason some media are inaccurate is not the fault of BoM. It's
basically
> because weather is not a high priority in their programming.
This is fascinating, the differences in culture and climate. Here in the
US weather is THE MOST important factor when it comes to news and the
viewing audience, at least in most parts of this country. That is why TV
stations will spend $600K US or more for a weather radar (even when they
also have a drop on NEXRAD) as well as another $500K or more for graphics
computers, the on-air set, other instrumentation, several fully equipped
chase vehicles, helicopters, and their own organized spotter networks, and
satellite down-links. This does not even include the salaries (which can
exceed $1M US) for the on-air meteorologists and other weather staff.
Here, even in the private sector, weather is very big business. And they
must get that weather right!
But be encouraged, it has not always been that way. Thirty or forty years
ago it was far different here. There were no (or at least very very few)
on-air meteorologists. The 'equipment' they had was a teletype and a glass
map that the weathercaster stood behind and wrote temperatures *backwards*
using white markers [S]! LOL
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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003
Date: Wed, 15 Dec 1999 15:48:01 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
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"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
> Mark:
>
> > The reason some media are inaccurate is not the fault of BoM. It's
> basically
> > because weather is not a high priority in their programming.
>
> This is fascinating, the differences in culture and climate.
Ah, Uncle Sam has the freedom of information act........!
Here in the UK there has been considerable downgrading in "public" weather
services as the UKMO go towards a pay - as - you - go service. The BBC weather
forcasts have been considerably dumbed down in recent months the quality and
detail are now almost non-existant ... almost inaccurate in some cases.
Also the UKMO is part of the Ministry of Defence - weather is an official
secret as covered by the Official Secrets Act!
We cannot get anything (UKMO, AVN, MRF models, even humble synop data) unless
we go to the US for it, an example is RAF Boulmer (EGQM) twenty miles away but
I get skew-T from the University of Wyoming and synop data from NOAA....!
As for UK radar, forget it, they're there but you have to pay a fortune....
I believe the BoM is now following the UKMO "example" and are going towards pay
as you go ):
Les(UK)
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004
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 01:44:12 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au]
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To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: TC John "Front Page News"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi there all, as u all know TC John has crossed the coast, with the
major towns of Karratha, Dampier and Port Hedland relatively unscaved.
The little Town of Whim Creek boor the full brunt of Tc John at about 10
am Wst. Here is a Url of the Front page of the West Australian News
Paper, Wednesdays edition......
http://www.wantree.com.au/~mjd/weataus141299_1b.jpg
MJ
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005
Date: Wed, 15 Dec 1999 14:24:20 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: ERAD
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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All:
I suggest that some of you think about submitting a paper or papers to this conference.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
-------------Forwarded Message-----------------
From: INTERNET:egs at linmpi.mpg.de, INTERNET:egs at linmpi.mpg.de
To: [unknown], LRLEMON
Date: 12/15/1999 8:27 AM
RE: ERAD
First Announcement and Call for Papers
First European Conference on Radar Meteorology (ERAD)
Bologna, Italy, 4-8 September 2000
www.copernicus.org/erad/index.html
The First European Conference on Radar Meteorology (ERAD),
co-sponsored by the European Meteorological Society, the European
Geophysical Society and the Consiglio Nationale delle Ricerche, will
be held at the CNR Congress Center in Bologna , Italy. Bologna is the
European Cultural Capital of the year 2000.
Following the successful series of radar meteorology meetings
organised by several European Union COST Projects, this conference
seeks to establish a continuing forum for the European radar
meteorology community, and scientists and engineers worldwide.
Posters and papers are solicited on all aspects of radar meteorology
and its applications including improvements to the quantitative
estimation of precipitation, microphysics, cloud remote sensing,
mesoscale dynamics, technical developments, networking and
compositing, nowcasting and short-period weather forecasting,
assimilation into meteorological and hydrological models,
complementary use of radar with other remote sensing technologies,
hydrological applications and applications of radar products by other
users. The involvement of companies is encouraged. The Organising
Committee particularly wishes to encourage the presentation of new
ideas which may not be fully developed.
The Conference aims to be a balance of invited and submitted papers
and workshops for special topics. The language of the conference will
be English.
The deadline for abstracts is 30 April 2000; papers will not be
accepted after the abstract deadline. Authors should state their
preference for oral or poster presentation, but the Organising
Committee will make the final decision on the form of presentation.
Because a large number of abstract are anticipated, not more than one
paper should be presented by any lead author.
Authors of accepted papers will be notified by 15 May 2000 and
instructions for the preparation of "proceeding" manuscripts will be
provided. These manuscripts of up to four pages maximum must be
submitted not later than 15 June 2000. These papers will then be
refereed , and the authors will be informed about the outcome of this
review by 30 June 2000. By 15 July 2000 authors then have to submit
the final camera-ready version for inclusion in the proceedings
journal. It is intended to supply registrants with a preprint volume at
the conference.
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006
From: "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC John has made land...........
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 08:57:00 +1300
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> Exmouth climbed up to 40 degrees today. A pretty impressive figure being
so
> close to the cyclone. Most likely due to the downslope winds around the
SE
> side of TC John. MH
By looking at some recent models for these few days, it looks like there
could easily be some record low maximum temperatures in parts of the
interior of eastern WA and adjacent outback areas, due to cloud and rain
moving off TC John and being undercut by cooler air from the south.
Pretty unseasonable here too lately. We had a southerly storm in coastal
Canterbury on Monday night/Tuesday morning, with gales (esp. on Banks
Peninsula), plus fresh snow on the alps. It's all settled down now, but
it's still a little cooler than normal.
Ben Tichborne
Christchurch
NZ
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007
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 07:42:36 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Guyra info wanted
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>It's one note of fame is that Guyra has the highest Caravan Park in
>Australia. You learn something new every day.
I stayed in that caravan park one night in 1990! As my only visit to the
new England Plateau, I was amazed (although in hindsight, considering the
altitude, I shouldn't have been) at how cold the plateau was compared to
the humid plains that October. We also had a MASSIVE thunderstorm that
night - I've rarely heard thunder that loud or rain that heavy, and it was
probably just an average storm for the locals - but thats an Adelaide boy
for ya :)
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
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008
Date: Wed, 15 Dec 1999 16:39:58 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC John has made land...........
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What a difference a hemisphere will make! We had 7.5 cm of snow last night
and it is only about 3 C here now after a day of abundant sunshine but with
strong winds.
> > Exmouth climbed up to 40 degrees today. A pretty impressive figure
being
> so
> > close to the cyclone. Most likely due to the downslope winds around the
> SE
> > side of TC John. MH
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
essage text written by INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com
>> Exmouth climbed up to 40 degrees today. A pretty impressive figure being
so
> close to the cyclone. Most likely due to the downslope winds around the
SE
> side of TC John. MH<
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009
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 07:37:34 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
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"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
Hi Leslie and all,
It must be remembered that Australia does not receive the type of
weather as the US does. After all, we rarely receive severe
thunderstorms, never get tornadoes (only mini-tornadoes!), our TC's are
in no way comparable to the US - and before people start shooting me
down in flames, yes I'm being sarcastic! :)
But that's what the public's stereotypical image of our weather is, that
the US gets the wildest/best weather, and we just occassionally get the
"bad stuff." Until this changes, I don't think we'll be seeing much of
a change in the way the media handles things, as they believe it's a low
priority issue. TC John made the Courier Mail front page here in
Brisbane - a whole two paragraphs and then telling you to flip the page
for more info. Basically, all they focused on was how this was the most
powerful TC to hit Australia in our history (essentially quoting the
incorrect BoM forecaster who gave them that information). You don't get
to read about the damage it caused until you flip over to the next
section! I'd be willing to say if the BoM forecaster didn't say what he
did, TC John wouldn't have made the front page at all.
The other unfortunate thing is that the media will only concentrate on
something if it's big. Had John caused massive damage, or killed
several (or more) people, the front headline would have been "MOST
POWERFUL CYCLONE TO HIT AUSTRALIA DESTROYS KARRATHA" (as an example).
I really can't see the media ever concentrating weather as a high
priority again until Australia eventually gets a much larger population
to be hit by the severe thunderstorms/TC's out there!
I say "again" because (believe it or not), there was a time when the
media used to pay close attention to the weather. I've gone through
many decades of newspapers to sift through for newspaper reports on
weather. Any report they had prior to the late 1960's was very
detailed. In the early 1900's they just about told you about each
building that was damaged! But then again, the weather was on
everyone's priority list, with nearly everyone involved in some scale of
agriculture (ie, vegie garden to a farm), and storms would have a major
effect on these.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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010
Date: Wed, 15 Dec 1999 22:43:04 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times in GMT
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC John has made land...........
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"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
> What a difference a hemisphere will make! We had 7.5 cm of snow last night
We had an unreported "polar low" which tracked down the North Sea last night-
spawning lots of pulse / single cell storms with plenty of lightning, soft
hail (snow grains) and a coupla inches of snow here - what a difference a
country can make, you have NOAA, NWS, NSSL etc, we've got the UKMO and
these poor Ozzies have the BoM which wants to be like the UKMO....
The BBC did a good job of reporting TC John.... eventually.
Les(UK)
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011
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs - Media Attitude to W
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 08:12:23 +0930
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Howdy all.
I wouldn't tend to go generalising saying the whole of Australia's media do not
care about weather.
I used to agree with that fact - but up here it is quite different. The media
are very good with weather - and their weather segments are longer and more
detailed (on Weekdays) then I am used to down South.
Even though they dont have qualified people or specific positions to present
the weather - the presenters actually take an interest and quite often comment
"gee that was a great storm last night" or "we are surely missing those storms
- but the Bureau are promising they will return" as they said last night :-).
But there is certainly an attitude within the networks - and even Government -
that Weather is something that makes great headlines when it happens - and
nothing else.
As for user pays - I would have thought that paying Tax would be the equivalent
wouldn't it?? Sure charge the multi-nationals for specialised services (such as
the Sydney to Hobart etc) but why slug the lowly individual who gets slugged
left right and centre. Hey maybe the Govt can place a "Weather Levy" on
Companies?? Save the individual.
Paul at darwin.
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012
Date: Wed, 15 Dec 1999 18:19:56 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Anthony and all:
Yes, in all my travels I find that the US has the reputation of having the
worst weather in the world with devastating flash floods and river floods,
blizzards, violent tornadoes (~ 1400 per year total but only about 2% of
the F4 to F5 variety, ~ 60% of the F0 to F1, and ~ 38% F2 to F3 variety),
extremely violent thunderstorms (with "giant" hail up to 10 to 16 cm in
diameter and "straight line" winds up to 60 m/s), hurricanes (TCs) up to
Cat 5, and even sand and dust storms as well as. I have flown over dust
storms that simply look like overcast composed of brown clouds. I must
admit I love the wx of the US but I do imagine that Australia does have
much the same climate with storms that either closely approach or reach
these same magnitudes. Relative to convection, it is CAPE and delta CAPE
that are the energy sources. Our CAPE can reach upwards of 9000 in extreme
cases. What are the extreme magnitudes in Australia? Of course, it is the
latent heat of water vapor that is responsible for most of that. Our dew
point can reach up to 80 degrees F in extreme cases. But the key to those
dew points is that they occur beneath mid latitude wind and temperature
fields, not simply in a tropical environment. Therein lies the key to
CAPEs of up to 9000.
The country with the second worst weather is noted as China. I never hear
Australia mentioned in there at all. So your visitors and tourism agencies
are doing well!
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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013
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 09:22:28 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Guyra Info
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Thanks to all for the Guyra information. As Australia doesn't have many
high towns (compared to other parts of the world) I'm interested in such
places that we do have and their climate/weather etc.
Lindsay Pearce
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014
Date: Wed, 15 Dec 1999 14:53:38 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Guyra info
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Thanks Michael,
Yeah, okay, make the cut-off 900 metres then and if you could send me a
list of the Bom stations, it would be much appreciated. Australia's
Altitude Towns - Weather and Climate, now there's a nice little book
title.
Thanks
Lindsay Pearce
PS: One other thing. What's the population of Guyra, roughly? Anyone?
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
>
>
> Lindsay,
>
> Check out the BoM Climate stuff. Guyra is there. Here are
> the stations;
>
> Number Name Long Lat Elevation
> ---------------------------------------------------------
> 056016 GUYRA POST OFFICE 151.67 -30.22 1325.0
> 056161 GUYRA (GOWAN BRAE) 151.88 -30.16 1325.0
> 056229 GUYRA HOSPITAL 151.68 -30.21 1332.0
>
> >From my knowledge, Guyra gets less snow than parts of
> the Central Tablelands but it probably gets the most
> for that part of the Northern Tablelands outside of
> Ben Loman(?) and of course Mt Barrington further to
> the South-East.
>
> If you want a list of all Australian BoM stations
> sorted by Elevation, let me know in return E-Mail
> and specify the altitude cut-off remembering that
> 1000m will exclude many that are around 980m. I'd
> suggest a cut-off of about 900m instead.
>
> ,-_|\ Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
> / \ Telstra Technology 7/255 Elizabeth St. Sydney NSW 2000
> \_,^._* Strategy & Research snail: Locked Bag 6764 GPO Sydney 1100
> v Sydney NSW Australia +61 2 9298 5891P +61 2 9298 5820F
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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015
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 11:00:18 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>
> Hello to all,
>
> There was a report in the Melbourne Age today (the online version - I'm
> not sure about the hard copy one) that TC John was "the strongest cyclone
> ever recorded in Australia". There was a quote attributed to a BoM
> forecaster (I can't remember his name) who reputedly said that this was an
> "unequivocal" fact! In the same breath, he is reported to have stated
> that it had wind gusts near 300 km/h near the centre, so his remarks are
> strange considering the BoM forecasters analyzed 3 TCs last season as
> having wind gusts estimated at 320 km/h. There's no doubt that TC John was
> an intense system, but saying that it was unequivocally the strongest ever
> is nonsence. As all the intensity analyses in the Australian region are
> bases almost totally on remote sensing imagery, it is rubbish to make such
> claims.
I think the claim was with respect to landfalling TCs, but still
think it is a little dubious (for example, given Vance's forward speed
and the instrumentally observed winds on its western side, there
seems little doubt that 300 km/h would have been reached or exceeded
on its eastern side).
Blair Trewin
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016
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 11:11:34 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Do Aussie's take on the hypocratic oath or something?
The "public" wx service is delved-up through mass-media eyes.
Seldom a day passes when someone doesn't comment about wx.
The second words uttered are critical of forecasts.
Wx ought to rate well as everyone is a potential expert.
The forecasts are wrong because the media don't care.
We still get $1.5B hail storms regardless of wx-crap.
We still get many severe-TC's.
We still get...
We just don't have enough people in their path(s).
The Government thinks that we have to pay for weather.
Weather just happens regardless of what any people do.
Why take such obvious media mistakes so seriously?
Keeping the public in the dark is an opportunity for ASWA!
I could keep on and on...but TC-John drummed the message
home loud and clear...The cricket or something sporty was
more important. What gives me metaphoric liquid excreta
is that fact that NOAA found our cyclone more awesome
than "we" did. They liked it so much they put up for free
those spectacular images taken yesterday from GMS5. Why
can't we be allowed by our own Government to sit back
in awe at natures might watching events unfold themselves
through the BoM services we fund? Sorry, you "gotta" pay
for the hi-res stuff, user-pays, you know, nudge-nudge,
wink-wink, say no more...consume, be silent and die...
We could thank whoever-we-believe-in that TC-John didn't
make landfall on top of a reasonably large population or
a US-Spy-Base...Why can't we do this? It's because our
Government and our media couldn't care less...Natural
disasters are good for the reigning Government. It makes
them appear more caring. As for the mass-media, who'd
notice anyway? Just a bunch of fanatics? No point in
getting it right as it doesn't improving ratings. Besides,
interested people have the 'net at their fingertips. QED.
Time to conjur-up an F4 "mini" for Parliament House...
I can see a media stunt forming nicely now:-) But there
is this very effective ABC show called Media-Watch who
are always interested in taking the mickey out of their
competitors:-)
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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017
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 11:18:22 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ilsa and second influence
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Halden Boyd wrote:
>
> LEARMONTH ala RAAF STATION appears to be the only one working
> at this time...probably due to power outages.
> ASWA people....it does appear the dissapation of John has turned
> dramatically to the north....I anticipate it will interact as the
> JTWC predicts and....the double whammy will happen with Ilsa over
> the next 24-36 hours....the regeneration will be a very
> interesting event....I don't believe this has happened before...
We could call it "The TC Strikes Back":-) How nice of nature
to give the media another chance to do better:-)
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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018
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Cc:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 10:18:41 +1000
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Hi all from me.
Widely described on TV last night as the most severe in recorded history. I
guess for some people history is rather shorter than even their memories,
but the blooper of the week award goes to Mark Ferguson of Channel 9's
Lateline who came out with this last night:
"TC John has been downgraded to category 5 as it moves in-land"...
One wonders what he thought the category was beforehand!
Looking at the ninemsn site this morning, the comment has been revised to...
"The cyclone had been downgraded to a category two and while gusts of up to
165kph were expected near the cyclone centre, they would be almost half the
300kph maximum recorded yesterday."
Now I'm not aware that a speed even close to 300kph was in fact "recorded"
anywhere. Poor channel nine, they really take the cake for sloppy
journalism.
John.
>snip
There was a report in the Melbourne Age today (the online version - I'm
not sure about the hard copy one) that TC John was "the strongest cyclone
ever recorded in Australia". There was a quote attributed to a BoM
forecaster (I can't remember his name) who reputedly said that this was an
"unequivocal" fact! In the same breath, he is reported to have stated
that it had wind gusts near 300 km/h near the centre, so his remarks are
strange considering the BoM forecasters analyzed 3 TCs last season as
having wind gusts estimated at 320 km/h. There's no doubt that TC John was
an intense system, but saying that it was unequivocally the strongest ever
is nonsence.
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019
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC John has made land...........
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 11:23:24 +1100 (EST)
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>
> Exmouth climbed up to 40 degrees today. A pretty impressive figure being so
> close to the cyclone. Most likely due to the downslope winds around the SE
> side of TC John. MH
Nothing particularly unusual about this - it's quite common for
extreme high temperatures in tropical locations to occur on the flanks
of a TC circulation, especially where that circulation brings offshore
flow to places that wouldn't normally get it (e.g. W/SW flow on the
north Queensland coast) - Hong Kong's highest temperatures are
invariably in typhoon situations.
The most striking example I can think of in Australia was the enormous
circulation associated with Nancy in February 1990. The southerlies
on its western side, with a fetch extending all the way to Victoria,
pushed very dry air (with associated huge diurnal ranges) into north
Queensland. Townsville had a dew point of -1 at one stage! (there is
no other instance of a February DP below about 7 there). Numerous
records were set for highest February maxima and lowest minima
(sometimes on the same day!). Townsville had 5 successive days
above 37 between the 2nd and 6th, including 39.6 on the 2nd and 39.0
on the 6th (its second and fourth-highest February maxima on record),
but also had its second-lowest February minimum on record, 18.4, on
the 5th.
(Nancy is also infamous for depositing something like 500mm of rain
upon the SCG during the course of a Test, which I suspect is a world
record, although I haven't checked this).
Perth has also been known to have very hot days (and extreme fire-
weather situations) in the easterlies on the southern side of an
approaching TC to the north, Vincent (1990) and Alby (1978) being
two good examples.
Blair Trewin
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020
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: World-wx (was Nine network anals & progs)
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 11:09:31 +1000
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In terms of frequency of thunderstorm, when looking at a world wide view, it
seems that central South Africa in fact is the clear winner. Yet you never
hear anything...
john.
>snip
Anthony and all:
Yes, in all my travels I find that the US has the reputation of having the
worst weather in the world with devastating flash floods and river floods,
blizzards, violent tornadoes (~ 1400 per year total but only about 2% of
the F4 to F5 variety, ~ 60% of the F0 to F1, and ~ 38% F2 to F3 variety),
extremely violent thunderstorms (with "giant" hail up to 10 to 16 cm in
diameter and "straight line" winds up to 60 m/s), hurricanes (TCs) up to
Cat 5, and even sand and dust storms as well as. I have flown over dust
storms that simply look like overcast composed of brown clouds. I must
admit I love the wx of the US but I do imagine that Australia does have
much the same climate with storms that either closely approach or reach
these same magnitudes. Relative to convection, it is CAPE and delta CAPE
that are the energy sources. Our CAPE can reach upwards of 9000 in extreme
cases. What are the extreme magnitudes in Australia? Of course, it is the
latent heat of water vapor that is responsible for most of that. Our dew
point can reach up to 80 degrees F in extreme cases. But the key to those
dew points is that they occur beneath mid latitude wind and temperature
fields, not simply in a tropical environment. Therein lies the key to
CAPEs of up to 9000.
The country with the second worst weather is noted as China. I never hear
Australia mentioned in there at all. So your visitors and tourism agencies
are doing well!
Les
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021
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Guyra info
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 12:20:58 +1100 (EST)
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I can't find my piece of paper with the mean number of snow-days per
year for various Australian stations, but seem to recall that Guyra
was somewhere in the 2-3 range (by way of comparison, Canberra,
Bathurst and Armidale are all in the 1-2 range, Orange is around 6,
Oberon is around 15).
The mean minimum in July (-1.0) is actually pretty unexceptional
by New England standards. The site looks pretty good (over grass, no
buildings or carparks nearby - which are the bane of most sites in
the region) so I can only presume that local topography is responsible.
Given that Woolbrook, 400 metres lower, has a July mean minimum of
-1.4 (and has recorded -14.5), one would expect that a suitably
sheltered rural valley site at Guyra's altitude (if any exist) might
get down around -3 or -4.
Blair Trewin
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022
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 11:22:51 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: JOHN and ILSA map animation server problems
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All,
I've been unable to inform you of ILSA and JOHN map animation updates or
even make them available - server problems, including email server being
down!
Email is on again today, but no certainty of continued service, and 24
hours of incoming mail has disappeared into aether if any of you have tried
to contact me directly.
Still cannot upload to my own website - info there is very stale now, they
have obviously had to re-install from backup, as my website has gone
backwards in time.
My brother in Hong Kong has set up a page for posting my map animations on
his website at: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/johnilsa.htm.
I have emailed him the completed TC JOHN animation, and the latest of the
TC ILSA animations, and they will continue to be updated there in between
his work commitments, depending on continued email and DNS service this end.
Sorry for any inconvenience.
Regards,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
carls at ace-net.com.au
Cyclone Tracking Maps Website:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information Page:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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023
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 12:30:27 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
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>
> The other unfortunate thing is that the media will only concentrate on
> something if it's big. Had John caused massive damage, or killed
> several (or more) people, the front headline would have been "MOST
> POWERFUL CYCLONE TO HIT AUSTRALIA DESTROYS KARRATHA" (as an example).
>
> I really can't see the media ever concentrating weather as a high
> priority again until Australia eventually gets a much larger population
> to be hit by the severe thunderstorms/TC's out there!
Rule 1: the best way to ensure that a weather event gets maximum
media coverage is for it to kill someone. (Damaging property owned
by a prominent media personality - e.g. the tree that fell on Stan
Zemanek's Porsche - helps too).
I imagine John might have got more attention if it had tracked
50km further east and a 7-metre storm surge had barrelled straight
into Port Hedland....
The best counter-example I recall came from one of the most notable
weather events of the 1990's - the October 1995 system that brought
widespread snow to the Flinders Ranges, gave Broken Hill a maximum
of 5 and left a trail of records from Gabo Island to Marble Bar. This
got virtually no coverage in the media, presumably because:
(a) it didn't affect any of the major cities
(b) the most spectacular impact (the snow) happened on a Saturday
afternoon when there is very little media coverage operating outside
the major cities
(c) it didn't kill anyone
Blair Trewin
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024
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC John has made land...........
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 12:37:51 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
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>
>
>
>
> > Exmouth climbed up to 40 degrees today. A pretty impressive figure being
> so
> > close to the cyclone. Most likely due to the downslope winds around the
> SE
> > side of TC John. MH
>
> By looking at some recent models for these few days, it looks like there
> could easily be some record low maximum temperatures in parts of the
> interior of eastern WA and adjacent outback areas, due to cloud and rain
> moving off TC John and being undercut by cooler air from the south.
Don't bet on it - most stations with a reasonable length of record in
interior WA have experienced a maximum near 20 in all months (thanks
to other TCs). Meekatharra's 21.4 might have been susceptible, but
I notice they are already at 20.7 and only reporting 2/8 cloud. Reset
maxima at 0900 the next day can be a factor too.
Blair Trewin
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025
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Guyra info
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 12:04:01 +1000
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Hi Blair,
I think the problem is largely wind. As noted by another correspondee, it
is a very exposed windy place, so yes a sheltered valley would be a
requirement, which would not be too hard to find, with low ranges not far
out of town (actually part of the Great Divide).
John.
>snip
The mean minimum in July (-1.0) is actually pretty unexceptional
by New England standards. The site looks pretty good (over grass, no
buildings or carparks nearby - which are the bane of most sites in
the region) so I can only presume that local topography is responsible.
Given that Woolbrook, 400 metres lower, has a July mean minimum of
-1.4 (and has recorded -14.5), one would expect that a suitably
sheltered rural valley site at Guyra's altitude (if any exist) might
get down around -3 or -4.
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026
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 12:17:28 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC ILSA WARNING
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
Some of you may like to know that the BoM has issued a WARNING for TC ILSA
for the WA coast to the NE of where TC JOHN crossed the coast, pasted
below. Hourly warnings are now being issued.
Regards,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IDW50W06
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ILSA ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 9:55 am WST on Thursday, 16 December 1999
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 TROPICAL CYCLONE is current for the coastal areas
between Cape Leveque and Pardoo.
A WATCH extends south to Whim Creek.
At 10am WST TROPICAL CYCLONE ILSA was estimated to be 615 kilometres
northnorthwest of Port Hedland and 670 kilometres westnorthwest of Broome and
moving southeast at 25 kilometres per hour towards the northwest coast.
Gales with gusts to 150 kilometres are expected to develop on the coast during
tomorrow. The strongest winds are expected to be on the northern side of the
centre.
Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE ILSA at 10am WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 15.1 South Longitude 116.7 East.
Recent movement : southeast at 25 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 985 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 150 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 2.
The State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts.
BLUE ALERT
Cape Leveque, One Arm Point, Djarindjin, Lombadina, Beagle Bay
Broome, Bidyadanga, Sandfire and Pardoo.
The next advice will be issued at 1pm WST.
This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
carls at ace-net.com.au
Cyclone Tracking Maps Website:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information Page:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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027
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 12:23:26 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: JTWC ILSA WARNING
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
Here is the latest JTWC ILSA WARNING - it predicts 100 knot winds and
landfall near Port Hedland!
Regards,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
432
WTXS31 PGTW 160300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- NEAR 14.6S1 115.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 115.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 17.2S0 116.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 19.6S6 117.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 21.8S1 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 23.5S0 119.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9 115.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ILSA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
152330Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREAL EXTENT AND IS SYMMETRIC. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 01S (ILSA) HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT. TC 01S (ILSA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, NEAR PORT HEDLAND, UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 01S
(ILSA) HAS YET TO SHOW SIGNS OF RE-INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY CLIMATOLOGICALLY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT RESULTING PRIMARILY FROM THE WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATION OF TC 02S (JOHN). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 (DTG 160753Z2),
161500Z3 (DTG 161353Z9), 162100Z0 (DTG 161953Z5) AND 170300Z1 (DTG
170153Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
carls at ace-net.com.au
Cyclone Tracking Maps Website:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information Page:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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028
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aus-wx: TC John rainfall
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 13:57:17 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
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Some rainfall totals for TC John are in:
Newman 214mm (24 hours to 0900)
Mulga Downs 207
Marillana 177
Wickham 201 (2 days)
Roebourne 165 (2 days)
Also some substantial falls in the interior (40mm at Giles).
Blair Trewin
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029
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 13:16:24 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Re: TC ILSA WARNING
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All,
I wrote:
>Hourly warnings are now being issued.
This should have read: 3 hourly warnings are now being issued.
Sorry!
Regards,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
carls at ace-net.com.au
Cyclone Tracking Maps Website:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information Page:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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030
X-Originating-IP: [210.9.51.34]
From: "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Development / cell
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 14:22:25 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey All
Well in the last hour some congestus has been building up to the West of the
city and developed in to a small cell near Canterbury and is now heading
towards Sydney Aiport. Very nice RFB's accompanied this cell with some nice
updraughts on the northern side.
As I speak I can see the cell to the south of Sydney near the aiport with a
nice heavy rain curtain to it.
Radar is showing some nice pink patches in it also.
There was another one that developed to the North of Sydney near Gosford ,
but this seems to have weakened.
Perhaps something might happen this afternoon.
James H
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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031
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC John rainfall
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 12:50:52 +0930
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Thanx Blair - still lower then I expected considering:
a) He was a Cat 5 TC
b) He was slow moving (considering TC Vance had similar falls and was moving at
twice the speed)
c) He came off that lovely warm moisture laden Indian Ocean.
Theories anyone?
Paul.
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032
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC John rainfall
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 14:51:04 +1100 (EST)
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>
> Thanx Blair - still lower then I expected considering:
>
> a) He was a Cat 5 TC
> b) He was slow moving (considering TC Vance had similar falls and was moving at
> twice the speed)
> c) He came off that lovely warm moisture laden Indian Ocean.
>
> Theories anyone?
>
> Paul.
Addition to the list: 302mm at Wittenoom. (The WA government, which
does not want to recognise that Wittenoom exists, successfully
pressured the Bureau into deleting it from its daily bulletins, but
it's as good a climate record as we have in the inland Pilbara, and
the station will stay open as long as the resident (I think there is
only one) stays, I expect). Ah, politics...
Addressing the points above, I'm not sure (although I haven't seen
any studies of it) that there's much correlation between wind speed
and rainfall totals in cyclones. (In addition, in the highest winds
- at Roebourne, for instance - the rain-gauge would certainly have
under-sampled the actual falls). Jonty - have you looked at the
rainfall/intensity linkages at all? Certainly some of the most
spectacular tropical cyclone rainfalls in Australia, especially in
Queensland, have come from relatively weak systems.
I'd normally regard 200mm as 'par' for a tropical cyclone without
significant topographic enhancement. It's significant that the one
site which was on the windward side of significant topography,
Wittenoom, got such a high total.
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033
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 14:23:36 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: TC John Satellite Pictures + Radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone,
I have a collection of Satellite Pictures of Tropcial Cyclone John taken
over the past few days in the BSCH recent events section if anyone is
interested:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/archiveddata/cyclones/john/john.htm
Some SPECTACULAR images there!
There are also radar images in the recent events report for those people
who were not home to see them or whatever..
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/products/recentevents.htm
Some equally spectacular images there as well!
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034
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 00:16:57 -0500
From: David Hart [dhart at world.std.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
On Thu, 16 Dec 1999, Blair Trewin wrote:
> Rule 1: the best way to ensure that a weather event gets maximum
> media coverage is for it to kill someone. (Damaging property owned
> by a prominent media personality - e.g. the tree that fell on Stan
> Zemanek's Porsche - helps too).
>
> I imagine John might have got more attention if it had tracked
> 50km further east and a 7-metre storm surge had barrelled straight
> into Port Hedland....
>
> The best counter-example I recall came from one of the most notable
> weather events of the 1990's - the October 1995 system that brought
> widespread snow to the Flinders Ranges, gave Broken Hill a maximum
> of 5 and left a trail of records from Gabo Island to Marble Bar. This
> got virtually no coverage in the media, presumably because:
>
> (a) it didn't affect any of the major cities
> (b) the most spectacular impact (the snow) happened on a Saturday
> afternoon when there is very little media coverage operating outside
> the major cities
> (c) it didn't kill anyone
Thought you might like to see what the international take on TC John was.
This following is an article on John from the On-line version of Boston's
largest newspaper "The Globe". Unfortunatly, by the standards of big city
US Newspapers like the "New York Times" or the "Washington Post" the paper
is not very well respected, and is well know for a rather parochial
approach to the news. There is a common joke about a "Globe" headline that
reads
"Atomic Bomb Hits New York City - Saugus [Boston suburb] Man Dies"
I suspect that the "Globe" didn't actually write the story, but got it from
a wire service like the Associated Press and re-wrote it. I didn't see the
hard copy paper, though I'm sure this story was lost in the middle of the
publications somewhere, none-the-less, they devoted more space to it that
I would have expected for a story half way around the world.
http://www.boston.com/dailynews/349/world/Powerful_cyclone_lashes_northw:.shtml
David Hart
Boston, Massachutsetts, USA
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035
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 12:18:35 +1100
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I have had a look around the UK weather info and besides New Zealand I think
it is pretty scarce. We tend to bag the BOM here in Australia, but in
comparison they are miles ahead of the UK and NZ ( but miles behind the US
too ).
This is why it is so important to let the minister concerned your feelings
in regard to commercialisation of BOM and CSIRO, not the people employed by
them.
Michael
>
> Here in the UK there has been considerable downgrading in "public" weather
> services as the UKMO go towards a pay - as - you - go service. The BBC
weather
> forcasts have been considerably dumbed down in recent months the quality
and
> detail are now almost non-existant ... almost inaccurate in some cases.
>
> Also the UKMO is part of the Ministry of Defence - weather is an official
> secret as covered by the Official Secrets Act!
>
> We cannot get anything (UKMO, AVN, MRF models, even humble synop data)
unless
> we go to the US for it, an example is RAF Boulmer (EGQM) twenty miles
away but
> I get skew-T from the University of Wyoming and synop data from NOAA....!
>
> As for UK radar, forget it, they're there but you have to pay a
fortune....
>
> I believe the BoM is now following the UKMO "example" and are going
towards pay
> as you go ):
>
> Les(UK)
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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036
From: "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au]
To: "Aussie Weather Net" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: TC John Rainfall
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 15:58:50 +1000
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Hi List,
On that subject, and having experienced a few cyclones in NQ over the last
30 years, the rainfall they produce can be extremely variable. And these
coming off a warm and moist Coral Sea. Recent ones I recall which dumped
heaps (Joy - Dec 90, Jan 91 in particular) stalled just off the coast around
Cape Upstart (also Aivu 85 and Charlie 88) and, with the large amounts of
rain, pounded us with strong winds for 10 days or so (I was in Sarina at
that time). More recently (97 I think) we got the moderate to strong winds
for an extended period in Proserpine, but no rain at all, from a bit of a
blow far out to sea.
Although I have never experienced one, long time locals talk of "dry
cyclones". The damage these do to crops and trees is apparently very
different to "wet" cyclones - more broken off type damage than pushed over
because of soil resistance.
Bill
in a (continuing) showery Proserpine. However models showing more general
rain middle of next week - courtesy John and Isla??
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037
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Storms...........at last
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 15:56:45 +0930
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Nice storms all over the place at the moment. Radar looks great too with
yellows/greens/pinks everywhere.
Paul at Darwin.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
038
X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au
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Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 17:00:09 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: astroman [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Delay on Snowtown pictures
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
I regret to inform you that there may be a slight delay in viewing the
damage pictures from Snowtown where a Supercell passed through on the 8th
of December 99. My scanner has decided it doesn't like my network cards and
halts the computers all the time before startup :( I will try to get the
pics up before the weekend if possible..
regards Andrew Wall
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039
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 17:39:12 -1100 (DST)
From: Jonty Hall [jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC John rainfall
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Rainfall in TCs seems to depend more on the strength of the outer
circulation than the strength of the core region (the intensity).
Although the highest rainfall rates are found in the core region,
they seem to be similar regardless of the intensity of the storm. Also,
rainfall *rates* seem to depend somewhat on the foreward speed of the
cyclone. So you would expect higher rainfall accumulations at a particular
place in slow moving systems not only because it takes longer for the
cyclone to pass over, but the rainfall rate is likely to be higher.
Interactions with other surrounding systems are also important - for
example an upper level jet streak to the poleward side of the cyclone is
favourable for enhanced rainfall. And once the cyclone crosses the coast,
the transition to a rain depression or extratropical low opens up a whole
new box of tricks. Oh, and of course the local orography is extremely
important also. Compared to these other effects, the intensity of the
system is actually not that important. This should be kept in mind when a
forecast is talking about a category 1 cyclone etc - the rainfall can
still be a big danger.
It must be said though that most research into this has taken the form
of detailed studies of a handfull of cases, so the overall picture is not
all that well known.
Cheers,
Jonty.
____________________________________________________________________
Jonty Hall jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au
CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
Monash University
Wellington Road,
Clayton, Vic 3168
Ph +61 3 9905 9684
____________________________________________________________________
On Thu, 16 Dec 1999, Blair Trewin wrote:
> >
> > Thanx Blair - still lower then I expected considering:
> >
> > a) He was a Cat 5 TC
> > b) He was slow moving (considering TC Vance had similar falls and was moving at
> > twice the speed)
> > c) He came off that lovely warm moisture laden Indian Ocean.
> >
> > Theories anyone?
> >
> > Paul.
>
> Addition to the list: 302mm at Wittenoom. (The WA government, which
> does not want to recognise that Wittenoom exists, successfully
> pressured the Bureau into deleting it from its daily bulletins, but
> it's as good a climate record as we have in the inland Pilbara, and
> the station will stay open as long as the resident (I think there is
> only one) stays, I expect). Ah, politics...
>
> Addressing the points above, I'm not sure (although I haven't seen
> any studies of it) that there's much correlation between wind speed
> and rainfall totals in cyclones. (In addition, in the highest winds
> - at Roebourne, for instance - the rain-gauge would certainly have
> under-sampled the actual falls). Jonty - have you looked at the
> rainfall/intensity linkages at all? Certainly some of the most
> spectacular tropical cyclone rainfalls in Australia, especially in
> Queensland, have come from relatively weak systems.
>
> I'd normally regard 200mm as 'par' for a tropical cyclone without
> significant topographic enhancement. It's significant that the one
> site which was on the windward side of significant topography,
> Wittenoom, got such a high total.
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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>
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040
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Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 17:23:26 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: loop of john
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hey all,
having a nice time are we??!!
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/longloop.gif
cyas
steve
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041
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 18:56:54 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: US/AU Conditions (was) Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Leslie,
"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
>
> Anthony and all:
I must
> admit I love the wx of the US but I do imagine that Australia does have
> much the same climate with storms that either closely approach or reach these same magnitudes.
But the key to those Of course, it is the
> latent heat of water vapor that is responsible for most of that. Our dew point can reach up to 80 degrees F in extreme cases.
> dew points is that they occur beneath mid latitude wind and temperature fields, not simply in a tropical environment. Therein lies the key to > CAPEs of up to 9000.
>
> The country with the second worst weather is noted as China. I never hear Australia mentioned in there at all. So your visitors and tourism agencies are doing well!
I agree with you Leslie, but I don't have any doubt that the US gets
more than AU does - the conditions in the US can simply be phenomenal,
on May 3, the frontal/low system that went through dropped OKC to
983hPa!!! I know this was a phenomenal system for you, but I don't
think anything of this magnitude has ever occurred in AU. Certainly not
with the temperature that you receive at the surface, one of the things
that prevents say Victoria from really exploding is that they just don't
get the moisture. Look what happened when last year they were getting
DP's in the high teens/low 20's, they had a fantastic season! (And
stole our storms :-( )
Relative to convection, it is CAPE and delta CAPE
> that are the energy sources. Our CAPE can reach upwards of 9000 in extreme
> cases. What are the extreme magnitudes in Australia?
I personally believe the US and AU are on a similar level in regard to
CAPE's. From memory, when Chuck Doswell visited AU, and when he came to
the Brisbane BoM he was very surprised (and impressed!) with some of the
CAPE's that we can get up to here, he didn't think they were actually
that high. CAPE's differ greatly, but I believe you'll find your
maximum area of CAPE sitting along the eastern coast of Australia, and
in the inland areas. WA also has some high CAPE's, but from my
experience, it is often too dry to give the phenomenal levels (as you
said, the latent heat of water vapour is responsible).
Brisbane will typically have CAPE's of 2500-3000 on severe thunderstorm
days, anything higher then that is normally too highly caped (although
we've had CAPE's of 4000+ with virtually no cap, and it's just been
t'storm after t'storm througout the day). Some of our worse
thunderstorms have occurred on high cap and CAPE days, eg Nov 3, 1973 -
the 51km Brisbane F2 tornado (which actually caused F3 damage, but was
averaged an F2), had a CAPE something along the order of 3200 at 9am.
Jan 18, 1985 had a CAPE of 4018. Probably the most outstanding day,
would be Jan 26, 1998 - nothing happened, we were capped like anything,
but using James' obs of a max of 36C and a DP of 29C, and the soundings
for that day give a CAPE of 9116. The upper air sounding is a typical
summer scenario.
But it must be remembered that these are Brisbane CAPE's, CAPE's are
higher as you travel just 150-200km north of here, with it not being
unusual to see temps around 90F, and DP's around 80F. Go to Rockhampton
and you can get temps upwards of 40C/104F and DP's around 30C/86F! And
it's not a tropical climate as such there either, the can still get
their fare share of upper level troughs that move through. I've often
speculated that CAPE's in Rockhampton near, or exceed 5 figures - ie,
10,000. But I've never been able to "prove" it, I've only ever been
able to speculate and form my own opinions with the limited data
available.
One interesting observation is that most of the SE'ern quarter of QLD's
severe thunderstorms over 20km/67,000ft actually occur just north of
here, from Gympie and northwards. The DP's and temps are even better up
there (150-200km north) then here! Especially as they get their NE
geostrophic winds right off the Coral Sea - something similar to the
Gulf of Mexico I would speculate. They also get the shear too, a good
situation is when the jet bends, and that often happens along the east
coast, up to as far as Rockhampton, but decreases very quickly after
that. The jet will bend, giving a good area of divergence on the bend,
or the right exit region (?), with a SW'ly jet behind that. With a
SW'ly jet, and NE'er ahead of the trough, the winds will back with
height very nicely anti-clockwise (which is what you want for supercells
here downunder). So SRH can also get quite high. Probably what is so
deceiving here is:
a) the lack of sounding data stations
b) the way everything changes during the day (ie, between the 00z and
12z soundings <10am and 10pm>). Especially in SE QLD - the best
shearing + upper level trough may not come through until during the day,
at which stage the surface is nice and hot, and DP's are in the low 20's
- cap breaks, and up, up and away...
Can these situations up north produce severe weather? Sure can! One
only has to look at Nov 29, 1992 for an excellent example of the
potential that the region 500-600km north of Brisbane really has. With
an F4 reported about 350km north of Brisbane during that time. Again, I
speculate that storms of this magnitude (ie capable of producing
strong/violent tornadoes) do occur with a certain degree of frequency.
So it's not the fact that they rarely occur, just they rarely hit
anything (important)!
But after all this, I can only speculate our conditions here downunder.
I remember last winter (your summer), watching when that huge moisture
tongue surged northwards, and CAPE's exceeded 5000 across many states!
I used Project Hubcaps to 'monitor' the situation, I noticed that most
of it was capped! I was puzzled when a white patch began to show up on
the hourly CAPE analysis maps though, until I realised, white = off the
scale! (The scale "only" goes up to 8000). I can't even begin to
imagine what would happen if a 8000 CAPE area did break through the
cap! I've seen a 3000-4000 CAPE area break through the CAPE, and was
absolutely astonished (a string of f-words after it too!).
Another thing I noticed, was that in some of your tornado outbreaks,
normally the regions of highest CAPE's have clear skies - I'm assuming
that this is the high cap region? Interesting setups in the US though,
and it gave me food for thought as to what happens here in Australia.
I've babbled (and probably bored enough people!) for long enough now!
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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042
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 10:12:43 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: US/AU Conditions (was) Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Anthony Cornelius wrote:
> Hi Leslie,
>
> "Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
> >
> > Anthony and all:
> I must
> > admit I love the wx of the US but I do imagine that Australia does have
> > much the same climate with storms that either closely approach or reach these same magnitudes.
erm, how does it pan out when it comes to unit area....
Les(UK)
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043
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 21:17:37 -1100 (DST)
From: Jonty Hall [jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: US/AU Conditions (was) Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Anthony and Leslie and all,
This discussion promped me to recall the Plainfield IL (1990) tornado,
which Fujita rated as the strongest tornado he had assessed. IIRC this
storm formed in an environment with very large CAPE - about 8000 Jkg^-1
(mid afternoon DPs were 25-28C), but only low to moderate vertical shear
in the lower levels. 0-2 km SRH was estimated at only 107 m^2s^-2. A weak
surface cold front apears to have been the convective trigger. I recall
seeing a scatter plot of SRH versus CAPE from Johns and Doswell (1992) in
which the Plainfield storm appeared as a far outlier, with SRH lower than
any other F4-F5 producing storm, and CAPE far above the others (the next
highest of the 35 had a CAPE of about 4500 Jkg^-1). It does seem that
there can be some form of "trade off" between SRH and CAPE in the
conditions necessary for these storms, but it was difficult to relate the
Plainfield storm to the others because it was pretty unique (have there
been other similar situations since then?).
Well, I guess with any highly unusual observation the speculation can take
a hold, but its interesting that such conditions can occur in Australia.
It makes you wonder what other mechanism may have been at work to produce
such a violent storm...
Cheers,
Jonty.
____________________________________________________________________
Jonty Hall jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au
CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
Monash University
Wellington Road,
Clayton, Vic 3168
Ph +61 3 9905 9684
____________________________________________________________________
On Thu, 16 Dec 1999, Anthony Cornelius wrote:
> Hi Leslie,
>
> "Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
> >
> > Anthony and all:
> I must
> > admit I love the wx of the US but I do imagine that Australia does have
> > much the same climate with storms that either closely approach or reach these same magnitudes.
>
> But the key to those Of course, it is the
> > latent heat of water vapor that is responsible for most of that. Our dew point can reach up to 80 degrees F in extreme cases.
> > dew points is that they occur beneath mid latitude wind and temperature fields, not simply in a tropical environment. Therein lies the key to > CAPEs of up to 9000.
> >
> > The country with the second worst weather is noted as China. I never hear Australia mentioned in there at all. So your visitors and tourism agencies are doing well!
>
> I agree with you Leslie, but I don't have any doubt that the US gets
> more than AU does - the conditions in the US can simply be phenomenal,
> on May 3, the frontal/low system that went through dropped OKC to
> 983hPa!!! I know this was a phenomenal system for you, but I don't
> think anything of this magnitude has ever occurred in AU. Certainly not
> with the temperature that you receive at the surface, one of the things
> that prevents say Victoria from really exploding is that they just don't
> get the moisture. Look what happened when last year they were getting
> DP's in the high teens/low 20's, they had a fantastic season! (And
> stole our storms :-( )
>
> Relative to convection, it is CAPE and delta CAPE
> > that are the energy sources. Our CAPE can reach upwards of 9000 in extreme
> > cases. What are the extreme magnitudes in Australia?
>
> I personally believe the US and AU are on a similar level in regard to
> CAPE's. From memory, when Chuck Doswell visited AU, and when he came to
> the Brisbane BoM he was very surprised (and impressed!) with some of the
> CAPE's that we can get up to here, he didn't think they were actually
> that high. CAPE's differ greatly, but I believe you'll find your
> maximum area of CAPE sitting along the eastern coast of Australia, and
> in the inland areas. WA also has some high CAPE's, but from my
> experience, it is often too dry to give the phenomenal levels (as you
> said, the latent heat of water vapour is responsible).
>
> Brisbane will typically have CAPE's of 2500-3000 on severe thunderstorm
> days, anything higher then that is normally too highly caped (although
> we've had CAPE's of 4000+ with virtually no cap, and it's just been
> t'storm after t'storm througout the day). Some of our worse
> thunderstorms have occurred on high cap and CAPE days, eg Nov 3, 1973 -
> the 51km Brisbane F2 tornado (which actually caused F3 damage, but was
> averaged an F2), had a CAPE something along the order of 3200 at 9am.
> Jan 18, 1985 had a CAPE of 4018. Probably the most outstanding day,
> would be Jan 26, 1998 - nothing happened, we were capped like anything,
> but using James' obs of a max of 36C and a DP of 29C, and the soundings
> for that day give a CAPE of 9116. The upper air sounding is a typical
> summer scenario.
>
> But it must be remembered that these are Brisbane CAPE's, CAPE's are
> higher as you travel just 150-200km north of here, with it not being
> unusual to see temps around 90F, and DP's around 80F. Go to Rockhampton
> and you can get temps upwards of 40C/104F and DP's around 30C/86F! And
> it's not a tropical climate as such there either, the can still get
> their fare share of upper level troughs that move through. I've often
> speculated that CAPE's in Rockhampton near, or exceed 5 figures - ie,
> 10,000. But I've never been able to "prove" it, I've only ever been
> able to speculate and form my own opinions with the limited data
> available.
>
> One interesting observation is that most of the SE'ern quarter of QLD's
> severe thunderstorms over 20km/67,000ft actually occur just north of
> here, from Gympie and northwards. The DP's and temps are even better up
> there (150-200km north) then here! Especially as they get their NE
> geostrophic winds right off the Coral Sea - something similar to the
> Gulf of Mexico I would speculate. They also get the shear too, a good
> situation is when the jet bends, and that often happens along the east
> coast, up to as far as Rockhampton, but decreases very quickly after
> that. The jet will bend, giving a good area of divergence on the bend,
> or the right exit region (?), with a SW'ly jet behind that. With a
> SW'ly jet, and NE'er ahead of the trough, the winds will back with
> height very nicely anti-clockwise (which is what you want for supercells
> here downunder). So SRH can also get quite high. Probably what is so
> deceiving here is:
>
> a) the lack of sounding data stations
> b) the way everything changes during the day (ie, between the 00z and
> 12z soundings <10am and 10pm>). Especially in SE QLD - the best
> shearing + upper level trough may not come through until during the day,
> at which stage the surface is nice and hot, and DP's are in the low 20's
> - cap breaks, and up, up and away...
>
> Can these situations up north produce severe weather? Sure can! One
> only has to look at Nov 29, 1992 for an excellent example of the
> potential that the region 500-600km north of Brisbane really has. With
> an F4 reported about 350km north of Brisbane during that time. Again, I
> speculate that storms of this magnitude (ie capable of producing
> strong/violent tornadoes) do occur with a certain degree of frequency.
> So it's not the fact that they rarely occur, just they rarely hit
> anything (important)!
>
> But after all this, I can only speculate our conditions here downunder.
> I remember last winter (your summer), watching when that huge moisture
> tongue surged northwards, and CAPE's exceeded 5000 across many states!
> I used Project Hubcaps to 'monitor' the situation, I noticed that most
> of it was capped! I was puzzled when a white patch began to show up on
> the hourly CAPE analysis maps though, until I realised, white = off the
> scale! (The scale "only" goes up to 8000). I can't even begin to
> imagine what would happen if a 8000 CAPE area did break through the
> cap! I've seen a 3000-4000 CAPE area break through the CAPE, and was
> absolutely astonished (a string of f-words after it too!).
>
> Another thing I noticed, was that in some of your tornado outbreaks,
> normally the regions of highest CAPE's have clear skies - I'm assuming
> that this is the high cap region? Interesting setups in the US though,
> and it gave me food for thought as to what happens here in Australia.
>
> I've babbled (and probably bored enough people!) for long enough now!
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> 14 Kinsella St
> Belmont, Brisbane
> QLD, 4153
> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
044
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 19:59:11 +0930
From: Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: US/AU Conditions (was) Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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And what CAPEs do Tropical areas get??............. I suspect higher
then usual because of 33c / DP of 25 etc but you didnt seem to mention
that.............
Paul.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
045
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 20:57:27 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: Re: US/AU Conditions (was) Re: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Jonty,
Jonty Hall wrote:
>
> Hi Anthony and Leslie and all,
It does seem that
> there can be some form of "trade off" between SRH and CAPE in the
> conditions necessary for these storms, but it was difficult to relate the
> Plainfield storm to the others because it was pretty unique (have there
> been other similar situations since then?).
There is in deed a "trade off" between SRH and CAPE. Essentially, the
higher your CAPE, the less SRH you need. It's an extremely interesting
relationship when you think about it, after all - what causes the higher
instability to be more prone to rotation than lesser instability? If
anyone has any information on this - it'd be very much appreciated. SRH
is certainly the main factor though, with "coldies" occuring in high SRH, and CAPE sometimes less than
400! (Yes, that's four hundred)
The EHI (Energy Helicity Index) was developed (I think!), to explore
this theory. EHI is simply a calculation of CAPE and SRH (for those who
don't know, SRH is the Storm Relative Helicity, and is the amount of
area under a hodograph, sometimes this is negative). If you're
interested, the equation (from memory) for EHI is something like:
EHI = (CAPE)(|SRH|)/160,000
With values over 1.0 indicating possible supercells, and over 4.0
indicating violent tornadoes. I have seen a graph that plots a series
of tornadoes, with associated CAPE, SRH and EHI values, and it looks
remarkably accurate! You may be interested to know, that while it never
reaches 0, at a CAPE of 5500 or more, SRH theoretically approaches 0 as
the boundary of supercell/non supercellular environment (per given
CAPE/SRH).
I think what makes it so difficult to give the "some CAPE for SRH"
substituion theory a good workout, is the fact that such high values of
CAPE (over 4000-5000) often accompany high cap days, thus no storms
actually form, meaning no severe t'storms. None the less, they do
occur, and I'd be very interested to look more into tornadoes in high
CAPE situations. While high values of SRH may not need to be present
for tornadoes, a good shear environment would still need to exist that
would enable a thunderstorm to sustain itself.
> Well, I guess with any highly unusual observation the speculation can take
> a hold, but its interesting that such conditions can occur in Australia.
> It makes you wonder what other mechanism may have been at work to produce
> such a violent storm...
I echo your thoughts - extremely interesting!
I hope this email was informative, I just read the end of your email and
then thought I may have just spent 5mins typing this out and telling you
stuff you already know! Oh well, hopefully others will find this
informative.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
046
Date: Thu, 16 Dec 1999 22:10:09 +1000
From: "Michael Powell" [mjpowell at mailcity.com]
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Subject: aus-wx: Nine network anals & progs
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Amongst the discussion of television weather it should be noted that one of Australia's most respected television weather journalists, Ray Wilkie, retires tomorrow night after 20 years of quality weather presenting on Channel 10 in Brisbane. The award winning metrologist
has always presented his segments in an informative and factual way. He never used an autocue rather he shared his knowledge with the viewer through his many years experience before television working in the BOM.
I urge all fellow Qlders on the list to tune in to his last bulletin at 5:55pm tomorrow night because the current thinking of economic rationalism will mean that we will not see this type of presentation again.
Michael from Brisbane
LYCOShop is now open. On your mark, get set, SHOP!!!
http://shop.lycos.com/
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| Document: 991216.htm
Updated: 17 December 1999 |
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