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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Tuesday, 21 December 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu] Ugly math inside -- hit DEL while you can ...
002 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Ugly math inside -- hit DEL while you can ...
003 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Cold morning in outer Melbourne
004 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Powder snow]
005 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Low DP's
006 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Latest SOI
007 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Latest SOI
008 Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au Storms developing to Sth of Canberra
009 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Storms developing to Sth of Canberra
010 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] forecast loop
011 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] forecast loop
012 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au forecast loop
013 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] forecast loop
014 "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com] forecast loop
015 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] forecast loop
016 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Yacht Race this year
017 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Yacht Race this year and the bust
018 Dean S [deansgar at alphalink.com.au] MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!!!
019 Chas & Helen Osborn [hosborn at tassie.net.au] Cold morning in outer Melbourne]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu]
Subject: aus-wx: Ugly math inside -- hit DEL while you can ...
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Mon, 20 Dec 1999 16:41:39 +0000 (GMT)
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Dear friends of SRH et al.,
In response to Anthony's questions, here are some
nitty-gritty [spelling?] bits regarding SRH and
thermodynamics:
SRH: This is an example of how easy it is to halve a
given SRH value:
Assume linear vertial shear from 270: V = lambda*z i
with lambad = 10 m/s / km;
Assume that the storm moves at an angle alpha
clockwise from vector i at speed C: c = C cos(alpha) i + C sin(alpha) j
Assume an LFC at h = 3000m.
Then, SRH = - C sin(alpha) lambda h = - 300 sin(alpha) m^2 s^{-2}.
A storm moving from 60 degrees (alpha=210 deg.) has SRH = +150 m^2 s^{-2},
a strom moving from ~75.5 degrees (alpha=194.48) has SRH = +75..
An angle of 15.5 degrees (well within the common error bounds)
halves the SRH!!
How to get the virtual temp. Tv from measured quatities (T,Tw,p):
Use energy conservation: the energy required to evaporate
[(mv)_saturated - (mv)_originally] kg of water into
an "original" parcel at pressure p (definition of wet bulb
temperature) is equal to the energy drawn from the md kg
of dry air in the original parcel (lowering
its temperature from T to Tw). Thus
L(mvs - mv) = md cpd (T - Tw)
L = energy needed to evaporate 1 kg of water
mvs = mass of vapour when parcel is saturated at temperature Tw
mv = mass of vapor in the original parcel
md = mass of dry air in the parcel
cpd = specific heat (at const. press. p (measured)) of dry air
T = temperature of the original parcel (measured)
Tw = wet bulb temperature (measured)
Neglected energy drawn to lower temp. of original water
vapour in the parcel.
Division by md results in mixing ratios r = mv/md and
rs = mvs/md:
r = rs - (cpd/L) (T - Tw)
With r = 0.622 e / (p-e) (e = partial pressure of water vapour):
e(p,T,Tw) = es(Tw) - Ap( T - Tw)
where the "psychometric constant" is
A = cpd ( 1 - es/p ) / ( 0.622 L )
If you plonck the formula for the mixing ratio r into
Tv = (1 + 0.61r) T
you get the virtual temperature from your measurements
of (p,T,Tw).
If you are still reading through this mail message, seek
medical advice at once ... :)
Formula Man
--
------------------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
Postdoctoral Research Associate
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
State University of New York at Albany
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494
spatz at atmos.albany.edu
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
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002
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 07:42:00 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ugly math inside -- hit DEL while you can ...
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Hi Harald,
Harald Richter wrote:
>
Well done! Thank you very much for taking the time to do this for us
all, it's very much appreciated!
>
> If you are still reading through this mail message, seek
> medical advice at once ... :)
I've needed medical advice ever since I started throwing ice onto the
roof to simulate hail (PS, get a 2L ice cream container, they're
quite fun to throw up into the air, and watch it smash onto the concrete
- this method would work much better on say a disliked neighbours car
though!)
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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003
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold morning in outer Melbourne
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 09:04:23 +1100 (EST)
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>
> Blair...
> On 24 -12-1995, Charlotte Pass was also -7 (to nearest. could you check
> this one out as well?
> Thanks
> Don W
-6.6.
Blair
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004
Date: Sun, 19 Dec 1999 13:59:35 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: aus-wx: Powder snow]
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Lucky you, lucky you.
Lindsay P.
Chas and Helen wrote:
> Lindsay we have snow forecast down to 900m tonight.
>
> Chas
> Strahan Tasmania
>
> -------- Original Message --------
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Powder snow
> Date: Fri, 17 Dec 1999 13:43:36 -0800
> From: Lindsay
> Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> References: <31A0DED1E83FD3118A4B00805F8584DD1E837A at NTLS0013>
> <017501bf46bb$a07ae320$de2208d2 at ab> <385A71AA.6FC2 at lisp.com.au>
> <38599274.3D2B17AF at telstra.com.au>
>
> Feel free to describe more Michael. God I'm talking about snow in the
> first month of summer! But hey, we can get some form of snow here over
> most months, well not Dec/Jan/Feb I guess. The snow at Oberon last June
> was definately good enough for skiing. I haven't seen snow like that
> outside of the Aussie Alps before. Any body got records of snow falls at
> Oberon?
>
> Lindsay Pearce.
> PS: Unzipped your OBS800M.ZIP no worries too, thanks.
>
> Michael Scollay wrote:
> >
> > Lindsay wrote:
> > >
> > > For Michael Scollay and others in the "snow know"
> > >
> > > I was reading about The Rocky Mountains snow fields (Colorado)
> > > and the amount of powder snow they receive there. The article
> > > said that Australia rarely gets more than a few centimetres
> > > of powder snow over a hard base.
> > >
> > > Is this true?
> > >
> > > I thought that at times after a fresh dump it could be quite
> > > powdery for a day or so...just wondering.
> >
> > First of all, the author of that arctical is talking off
> > the top of his hat with a load of crap. I'll take him out
> > on the main range almost any day in July/August and laugh
> > at him/her buried in Aussie powder over his head but with
> > one qualification - the conditions have got to be spot on.
> >
> > Secondly, I've skiied "powder" in Colorado, Utah and France.
> > There's nothing like the lightness of Utah dry snow which
> > is the other name for "powder" with its huge lightly-packed
> > classic snow-crystaline structure. Now that is a rare sight
> > in Australia as our dry snow tends to be more tightly
> > packed with crystals not quite as large.
> >
> > I could describe more (favourite subject) later...
> >
> > Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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005
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Low DP's
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 11:55:31 +1100 (EST)
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>
>
>
>
> >This weekend looks like it has the potential to be highly interesting,
> >particularly in Victoria.
>
> >Blair Trewin
> Please tell!!!
>
> paul.
All models show a trough of varying intensity edging across Victoria
between the 24th and the 27th, with GASP and the EC both now having
closed lows on the trough in its later stages (GASP has formed its
by the 25th, the EC on the 26th). The EC has a low on the 27th in
about the same location as the one on the same date last year - but
about 30 hPa higher in central pressure!
Blair Trewin
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006
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Latest SOI
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 13:31:40 +0930
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Howdy all.
The lastest SOI figure came in a + 17
Paul.
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007
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Latest SOI
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 15:19:41 +1100 (EST)
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>
> Howdy all.
>
> The lastest SOI figure came in a + 17
>
> Paul.
This is a 30-day running mean; the end-of-month figure is likely to
be lower than this, as some high daily values (in the 20s) from the
last week of November fall out of the running mean.
Daily updates are posted on the Queensland DNR's site (www.dnr.qld.gov.au/
longpdk), although this won't be operating over the Christmas-New Year
period.
Blair Trewin
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008
From: Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au
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Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 15:23:17 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Storms developing to Sth of Canberra
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Hi all,
A few congestus have begun to glaciate to the south of Canberra.
Hopefully a sign of things to come for later in the week.
Patrick
PS I thinks some of the Sydney to Hobart contestants must be
beginning to have some butterflies looking at some of the models.
GASP's prediction of 986 low just south of Tas for the 27th could
bring back some nasty memories. A low in this position and
timing is probably of greater interest (and concern?) to the
Melbourne - Hobart racers going around the west coast.
Thanks Paul M for the SOI update - things are starting to
look interesting for the start of 2000!!
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009
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms developing to Sth of Canberra
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 14:15:31 +0930
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Howdy Patrick & all.
Its amazing that at htis time of year those massive deep Southern Lows always
pop up for the race - those poor yachties!!
I wonder what the increasing SOI will do Country wide? Has anyone got an idea -
I know that they generally say that it may lead to higher rain for some parts -
but is there any more specific info?
Ps Good luck later in the week - our forecast sounds great - Showers, and
storms (noe the plural!!)
Paul.
Patrick_Tobin at ama.com.au at world.std.com on 21/12/99 02:09:50 PM
Please respond to aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sent by: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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cc:
Subject: aus-wx: Storms developing to Sth of Canberra
Hi all,
A few congestus have begun to glaciate to the south of Canberra.
Hopefully a sign of things to come for later in the week.
Patrick
PS I thinks some of the Sydney to Hobart contestants must be
beginning to have some butterflies looking at some of the models.
GASP's prediction of 986 low just south of Tas for the 27th could
bring back some nasty memories. A low in this position and
timing is probably of greater interest (and concern?) to the
Melbourne - Hobart racers going around the west coast.
Thanks Paul M for the SOI update - things are starting to
look interesting for the start of 2000!!
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010
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 00:25:12 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: forecast loop
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Here in Missouri the temp is down to -11 C and still dropping. Still have
some snow on the ground. But with the wind it is bitter! Enjoy your
warmth! [S]
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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011
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 00:35:49 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: forecast loop
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Want to see a storm???
Try:
Make it as severe as you like!
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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012
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: forecast loop
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 15:19:53 +0930
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Hi Les (USA)
heheh just to rub it in its about 29c here with a DP of 26 and some nice heavy
storns rolling by.................
Just wonderful weather! Looks like Santa came early!
Paul at Darwin.
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013
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 01:46:50 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: forecast loop
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Hi Paul.......enjoy yours and I will "enjoy" mine! [S]
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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014
X-Originating-IP: [210.84.131.118]
From: "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: forecast loop
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 00:44:59 PST
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>heheh just to rub it in its about 29c here with a DP of 26 and some nice
>heavy
>storns rolling by.................
>
>Just wonderful weather! Looks like Santa came early!
>
>Paul at Darwin.
I've heard that Mrs Claus hates that when that happens Sorry too good to
resist.
To make this email wx related in some way - I think you have made just about
all of us jealous with that description, wish I was still up there
sometimes. Looking good for SE quarter of Aust over the weekend as some
people have already mentioned - couple of nice TCu over the ranges to the
east of Melb this arvo, which I always regard as a precursor to storms for
Melbourne when the next change or trough domes through - more local
knowledge (allegedly ) than anything else
If I don't post again b4 Xmas day I wish everyone on the list a great
Christmas and a fantastic New Year
Chris
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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015
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: forecast loop
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 20:08:20 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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Well actually it has been a very cool summer here in the Illawarra ( South
Coast , NSW ), we are struggling to reach 23C on most days, and at night a
blanket is still nice.
Regards
Michael
> Here in Missouri the temp is down to -11 C and still dropping. Still have
> some snow on the ground. But with the wind it is bitter! Enjoy your
> warmth! [S]
>
> Les
>
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Phone: 816-373-3533
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>
>
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>
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016
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Yacht Race this year
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 20:05:52 +1100
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I have been watching this one as well. Last year NOGAPS picked the closed
low from about 120h out, then dropped it, only the rekindle it on about 72h
out. It was also much higher than what resulted.
Michael
> All models show a trough of varying intensity edging across Victoria
> between the 24th and the 27th, with GASP and the EC both now having
> closed lows on the trough in its later stages (GASP has formed its
> by the 25th, the EC on the 26th). The EC has a low on the 27th in
> about the same location as the one on the same date last year - but
> about 30 hPa higher in central pressure!
>
> Blair Trewin
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
017
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
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Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 20:19:37 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Yacht Race this year and the bust
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
That bring back scary memories of the chase that accompanied it. Mr Bust
chase himself, me and Matt Smith all recall how the promise of a great day
turned to a massive bust as this low developed. Well Matt Smith was
sleeping in the back a fair bit of the time - hehe, so he wouldn't have
known too much. Sorry Matt - no rest for the wicked. There was a lack of
moisture that day and I suppose you have to get out there and chase to get
experience of the weather in the country. Although I picked out the fact
there was no low cloud - hence less moisture, I didn't think it was that
deficient.
Jimmy Deguara
At 20:05 21/12/99 +1100, you wrote:
>I have been watching this one as well. Last year NOGAPS picked the closed
>low from about 120h out, then dropped it, only the rekindle it on about 72h
>out. It was also much higher than what resulted.
>
>Michael
>
>
> > All models show a trough of varying intensity edging across Victoria
> > between the 24th and the 27th, with GASP and the EC both now having
> > closed lows on the trough in its later stages (GASP has formed its
> > by the 25th, the EC on the 26th). The EC has a low on the 27th in
> > about the same location as the one on the same date last year - but
> > about 30 hPa higher in central pressure!
> >
> > Blair Trewin
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> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
018
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 21:07:27 +1000
From: Dean S [deansgar at alphalink.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 2.02 (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hello all,
What a year we have had and we are approaching a new year which
is bound to be a very active year in the terms of thunderstorms. We are
about to embark on a new era of the 21st century. With both the
technological breakthroughs in the field of meteorology and the methods
conceived over the hundreds of years of weather observation, the up
coming century will prove to be a remarkable time of meteorological
discoveries and breakthroughs.
As we, the members of the Australian Severe Weather Association
chase and follow these advances made in the field we all love almost
religiously, we will be the key in the near future to the understanding
of Australian severe weather and perhaps educate the Australian public
of these discoveries which will be credited to ASWA which may place us
amongst the global meteorological world.
On a more personal note, I wish to extend my family and my best
wishes for a wonderful christmas and festive season. May you all enjoy a
safe and joyful introduction into the 21st century. I look forward to
catching up with everyone again soon. MERRY CHRISTMAS AND ALL TAKE CARE!
Hope you get all the presents you wished for from Santa :)
MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Yours sincerely,
Dean AL Sgarbossa
deansgar at alphalink.com.au
eldino26 at xoommail.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
019
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1999 21:08:57 +1100
From: Chas & Helen Osborn [hosborn at tassie.net.au]
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: [Fwd: aus-wx: Cold morning in outer Melbourne]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Blair Trewin wrote:
> > Nothing below -1 in
> Tasmania, which surprises me a little. (Both Omeo and Cooma have
> been below 0 in all 12 months of the year).
>
> Blair Trewin
>
We have had strong sea breezes since the wind changed to a South Westerly this
might have a effect on inland night temperatures.
Chas
Strahan Tasmania
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| Document: 991221.htm
Updated: 22 December 1999 |
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