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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Wednesday, 12 January 2000 |
From Subject
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001 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] More articles??
002 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) More articles??
003 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Cyclones galore
004 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Global Warming...
005 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Cyclones galore
006 Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au] heavy falls in NE NSW
007 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. AR-22 1999-2000: Weather Services in the BoM - comments.
008 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] More articles??
009 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Nice storms in SA/WA border
010 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au NSW STA
011 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Interesting article about supercells
012 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] Dry Line (was More articles??)
013 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com] NSW STA att paul
014 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] More articles??
015 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] AR-22 1999-2000: Weather Services in the BoM - comments.
016 Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au] close lightning bolt
017 "Matthew Piper" [mjpiper at ozemail.com.au] Tornado Doco Reminder
018 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Tornado Doco Reminder
019 "John Graham" [gorzzz at optusnet.com.au] Tornado Doco Reminder
020 "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au] Fw: NASA ADMINISTRATOR HIGHLIGHTS AGENCY'S ROLE IN IMPROVING
021 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
022 Mario Paul [stormtwist at yahoo.com] Fw: NASA ADMINISTRATOR HIGHLIGHTS AGENCY'S ROLE IN IMPROVING
023 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Dry Line (was More articles??)
024 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] (Sub)Tropical Brisbane's Cold Air Cb's - in the middle of su
025 "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au] Tornado Doco Reminder
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
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Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 09:12:24 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: More articles??
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>This articles is on the 4th January dry line outbreak in
>
>http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/storm_news/2000/docs/0001-0
>4.htm
>
>Please enjoy. Great to see a whole lot of articles from all the various
>sites ready for the next edition of Storm News!!
>
>Jimmy Deguara
Hi Jimmy
I've noticed our eastern states friends using the term 'dry-line' lately.
This was a term I'd previously associated with the Great Plains of the US.
I can see that east (and west? - Ira?) coast troughs might be roughly
analagous to the American situation, but is it a term the ASWA has just
started to use for convenience or do BoM types over there also use it?
Just interested.
Classic Adelaide summer weather persists at the moment [an for a change
this summer]. Very hot, very low humidity, with some high based congestus
developing in the afternoon (but no rain hitting the ground). All in all,
pretty boring. Moisture injection please ...
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
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002
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: More articles??
Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2000 23:01:36 GMT
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On Wed, 12 Jan 2000 09:12:24 +0930, Phil Bagust
wrote:
>I've noticed our eastern states friends using the term 'dry-line' lately.
>This was a term I'd previously associated with the Great Plains of the US.
>I can see that east (and west? - Ira?) coast troughs might be roughly
>analagous to the American situation, but is it a term the ASWA has just
>started to use for convenience or do BoM types over there also use it?
>
The Northern Territory forecasters use it all the time -- but then
again, in the NT the contrast in humidity across the line is usually
pretty marked. I can't recall any other state's using it.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://ausweather.simplenet.com
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003
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Cyclones galore
Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2000 23:15:17 GMT
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The latest NOGAPS run has a TC descending on Darwin next Monday and
another operating off the NW WA coast. GASP has nothing and MRF isn't
available.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://ausweather.simplenet.com
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004
Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2000 14:48:37 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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Subject: aus-wx: Global Warming...
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Thanks Michael, David and others, your thoughts are considered, indeed
considerable, informed and appreciated. Talking to folk up here in the
Blue Mountains, there definately "Seemed" to be more snow around in the
50's and 60's but then we have had some pretty decent "Out of the Blue"
falls in recent decades too, like the one in the early 90's (can't
remember which year) when they skied on the golf course in November and
other falls since which were good fun.
Just another question, the good or bad seasons down south don't always
seem to be linked with the odd good or bad years we might get up here.
Is this true? Thoughts on such would be appreciated. Snow talk in our
town is not uncommon, especially as there aren't many towns in Oz
whereby such conversations can be had.
Thanks again.
Lindsay Pearce.
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
> I havn't seen the artical but I also sense some media license
> being exercised. I agree with David's synopsis also but with
> the condition - to expect surprises. Predicting future climate
> is pretty game given that my detailed analysis of both
> precipitation and temperature trends points to more extremes.
> This gives a snow season with both feast and fathom that has
> been typical of 1998 and 1999 in particular.
>
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005
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cyclones galore
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 09:05:31 +0930
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Please oh Please let it be true Laurier!
:-)
Paul.
wbc at ozemail.com.au at world.std.com on 12/01/2000 09:01:43 AM
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cc:
Subject: aus-wx: Cyclones galore
The latest NOGAPS run has a TC descending on Darwin next Monday and
another operating off the NW WA coast. GASP has nothing and MRF isn't
available.
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://ausweather.simplenet.com
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006
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Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 12:25:42 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: heavy falls in NE NSW
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Hi all,
Some heavy shower activity has persisted in NE NSW since yesterday
afternoon. I could see large cumulus developing into weak cbs on dusk and
heavy falls hit a few times during the night, particularly around 11.30pm
at my place. I recorded 31.8mm to 9am this morning at Wollongbar, and
36.6mm at my other gauge at McLeans Ridges a few ks to the NW. In this
morning's BoM rainfall figures Evans Head topped the list with 104mm with
Coffs Harbour on 74mm. Thunder has been observed this morning with cells
developing off shore and moving in dumping heavy rain in places.
With this blocking pattern and a low over the N Tasman and cold upper air,
we could be in for some decent totals the next two days as well.
Some rainfall figures are in for 1999:
Lismore 1916.5mm (normal 1353.5, and wettest since 1974)
Ballina 3088 (normal 1874 - this is a new record)
Cape Byron 2885 (1825)
Casino 1326 (1186)
No floods were recorded in the Lismore area during 1999 which is surprising
given the totals - moderate falls of rain fell over many days.
regards, Michael
==================================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
Wollongbar NSW 2477 http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Secretary ASWA Inc. http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
==================================================================
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007
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 13:23:12 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: AR-22 1999-2000: Weather Services in the BoM - comments.
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These comments should perhaps be aired in a tighter circle
of people but I am not sure who in the BoM is watching the
list and would be interested.
When Laurier sent out an E-Mail highlighting the Auditor
General's report, I grabbed a copy and have be reading it
slowly over the last few weeks.
I must stress that the following views are of mine, that
are extremely filtered (I may have missed something really
important) and are personal views. If you have any further
comments, it is perhaps best to send these back to me
directly unless you consider your comments of a more general
interest.
1) Scope of Audit - This was well identified and the report
did not stray outside the scope. The problem that I found
with the scope was that it needed to be broader. It should
have examined matters of procedure, in particular that
relating to severe weather detection/observation and the
role of storm spotters in improving the Probability Of
Detection (POD). I have more comments about this in 5).
2) Audit Emphasis - I detected an underlying frustration
from the auditors. This manifested in the recommendations
which in number, focussed on BoM internal systems and
their inadequacies when it comes to reporting. There was
a welcome emphasis on consistency related to difficulties
in reporting in areas such as AIFS and benchmarking
against leading meteorolgical agencies but I think this
was a consequence of the audit and not the main thrust.
While AR 8,9 and 10 related to severe weather, the focus
was on juggling resources around such as the Severe
Weather roster.
3) Recommendation Prioritisation - There was no reasonable
attempt by the auditors to prioritise the recommendations
in relation to one another. The one priority indentified
was AR No.7 Para 3.27 concerning revenue generation where
the UK approach was cited as the best example, but this
approach is at logger-heads with respect to World's Best
Practice (WBP) in meteorolgy, for example in severe weather
forecasting. Other recommendation prioritisation was largely
left up to the BoM, perhaps rightly so, but I think a lot
more could have been gained by comparing World's Best
Practice in core meteorology practices against that done
in Australia and relating that in terms of priorities for
the BoM to consider.
4) Audit Conflicts - When the auditors examined other
agencies, it was mainly for the purpose of comparing
costs and revenue generation. Only Table 3 in 2.15
examined forecast accuracy in the USA and Table 9 in
4.28 looked at POD in the USA and Australia. While every
intent was apparent to improve, say, severe weather
forcasting, the audit failed to examine in detail how
the world's best practice in this regard was achieved.
In summary, the auditors picked on those cases which
best fitted what they wanted to achieve from the report.
I think this was more revenue generation to cover areas
of cost increases such as with the observation network.
This, in my opinion, is a major source of conflict in
that the BoM cannot be a major source of revenue, run
on a shoe-string budget and be one of the most efficient
world's best all at the same time. One only needs to
compare the USA and UK to see the difference.
5) Severe Weather - I think the Audit Report missed the
point with severe weather largely because the scope
excluded a more detailed analysis. The one mention of
what it takes comes in 4.28 "The better performance of
the USA can be explained by factors such as the higher
density of the observation network in the USA (roughly
twice the number of synoptic stations). the higher
number of storm spotters (the USA has 122 000 compared
tp Australia's 2850) and the more powerful NEXRAD radar
system operating in the USA (The USA has a network of
123 NEXRAD units that provide nationwide Dopplar radar
coverage for detection of severe weather events)." No
mention of how to make the spotter network more
effective e.g. ASWA and free met-data access etc. yet
Recommendation 9 and 10 repeat that the BoM should
prioritise toward severe weather forecasting but makes
no call to improve POD.
In summary, I was largely dissappointed in Audit Report
No.22 1999-2000. The recommendations are strong on the
increased revenue focus but weak in areas such as what
is really needed to improve severe weather forecasting.
We all know that improved severe weather forecasting needs
in addition to the specialised BoM severe weather people,
a mobile, keen and well-trained "spotter" network, more
and improved observation technology such as synoptic
stations and dopplar radar (that means more capital
expenditure, not less) and free access (by at least the
spotters) to all meteorological observation data and
models. All the Audit Report said was prioritise
severe weather forecasting, move around BoM people to
suit, improve the maintainance of equipment, better and
consistent reporting and integrate severe weather
performance monitoring with AIFS.
Potentially, this Audit Report is not good for ASWA. In
a round-about way, ASWA has pooled resources to make
appropriate met-data available at minimal cost to ASWA
members. But the Audit Report detail calls for the BoM
to expedite a transaction-based revenue collection
base for specialised services to increase revenues.
If the BoM goes ahead with this for radar and applies
this to ASWA, it will prove extremely expensive for ASWA
given our current radar modus-operandi. ASWA Committee
food for thought, I would say.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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008
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Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 15:41:50 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: More articles??
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I know that in Australia we tend to use trough line instead of dry line. In
this particularly case, the satellite picture showed a very distinct sharp
variation in moisture. Storms were explosive on one side with close to
clear weather on the other side especially when it moved off the coast.
There were two other circumstances this summer where a similar situation
has occurred. There was a wind change but no change in temperature until
the cold front came through later in the evening
So what is the difference between a trough line and dry line?? Is it just
different terminology used in different countries? Perhaps someone can shed
some light into the debate. I recall Anthony saying that the structure of a
dry line and trough line are different... I would think they are the same
thing but perhaps it varies in different parts of the country. The same
line affected NNSW and SEQld on the 5th January with more probable
supercells. One would have to get a good bearing of the change in the dew
points but I have none of that information. I am purely going on the
satellite picture.
One also must not get confused with convergence zones ie NE winds meeting
NW winds.
Oh well we will let the discussion take place.
Jimmy Deguara
At 09:12 12/01/00 +0930, you wrote:
> >This articles is on the 4th January dry line outbreak in
> >
> >http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/storm_news/2000/docs/0001-0
> >4.htm
> >
> >Please enjoy. Great to see a whole lot of articles from all the various
> >sites ready for the next edition of Storm News!!
> >
> >Jimmy Deguara
>
>Hi Jimmy
>
>I've noticed our eastern states friends using the term 'dry-line' lately.
>This was a term I'd previously associated with the Great Plains of the US.
>I can see that east (and west? - Ira?) coast troughs might be roughly
>analagous to the American situation, but is it a term the ASWA has just
>started to use for convenience or do BoM types over there also use it?
>
>Just interested.
>
>Classic Adelaide summer weather persists at the moment [an for a change
>this summer]. Very hot, very low humidity, with some high based congestus
>developing in the afternoon (but no rain hitting the ground). All in all,
>pretty boring. Moisture injection please ...
>
>Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
>paisley at cobweb.com.au
>http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
>
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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009
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Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 17:35:04 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Nice storms in SA/WA border
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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The storm on the SA/WA border area is quite large and has exploded since
the last image. Well for those not on until later I have saved this image
into the temp directory.
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/temp/000112/0001120530.jpg
Those storms are massive.
Please do not link to this particular link as it will be removed.
Jimmy Deguara
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010
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 16:26:40 +0930
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1741 on Wednesday the 12th of January 2000
This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
Northern Rivers and Mid-North Coast north of about Kempsey
Thunderstorms and heavy showers are occurring within the advice area and are
forecast to continue this afternoon and evening. Some of these are expected
to be severe bringing locally destructive winds and short periods of very
heavy rainfall.
Wind strong enough to damage houses and trees has already been reported from
Evans Head this afternoon.
The STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE advises that as storms approach people should:
* put vehicles under cover
* move indoors away from windows
During and after the storm people should:
* beware of fallen trees and power lines
The RTA recommends motorists switch their lights & wipers on & slow down in
the wet.
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011
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Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 18:11:28 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Interesting article about supercells
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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For those interested, this is a good article about a rough guide as to the
various type of supercell characteristics.
http://www.storm-track.com/sctype.htm
Jimmy Deguara
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012
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Dry Line (was More articles??)
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 17:04:00 +1000
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My 2 cents worth,
I understand that in the U.S., the Dry Line is used to describe a sharp
boundary which frequently exists in the mid west states separating humid
S/SE air flow originating from the gulf of Mexico and Hot dry inland air.
I believe something similar seems to happen from time to time in in-land QLD
and NT during spring & summer, where a boundary between maritime air and a
dry continental air mass comes into being. The boundary seems to generally
coincide with the trough line but can move to the East of the trough line
quite considerably. In this case passage is marked by a wind shift from
humid NE to hot dry NW, and is accompanied by Storms. The trough line
itself is marked by a wind shift from NW to cooler SE.
And maybe our "dry line" is in fact just a NE/NW convergence zone...
In spring/summer in QLD, Cold fronts as such rarely exist, the tail ends
being represented by a SE change, which may occur along the coast without
displacing the in-land trough. On other occasions, typically in spring, the
SE change will be "absorbed" into the trough and appear to drag it over the
coast.
John.
>snip
I know that in Australia we tend to use trough line instead of dry line. In
this particularly case, the satellite picture showed a very distinct sharp
variation in moisture. Storms were explosive on one side with close to
clear weather on the other side especially when it moved off the coast.
There were two other circumstances this summer where a similar situation
has occurred. There was a wind change but no change in temperature until
the cold front came through later in the evening
So what is the difference between a trough line and dry line?? Is it just
different terminology used in different countries? Perhaps someone can shed
some light into the debate. I recall Anthony saying that the structure of a
dry line and trough line are different... I would think they are the same
thing but perhaps it varies in different parts of the country. The same
line affected NNSW and SEQld on the 5th January with more probable
supercells. One would have to get a good bearing of the change in the dew
points but I have none of that information. I am purely going on the
satellite picture.
One also must not get confused with convergence zones ie NE winds meeting
NW winds.
Oh well we will let the discussion take place.
Jimmy Deguara
At 09:12 12/01/00 +0930, you wrote:
> >This articles is on the 4th January dry line outbreak in
> >
>
>http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/storm_news/2000/docs/0001-
0
> >4.htm
> >
> >Please enjoy. Great to see a whole lot of articles from all the various
> >sites ready for the next edition of Storm News!!
> >
> >Jimmy Deguara
>
>Hi Jimmy
>
>I've noticed our eastern states friends using the term 'dry-line' lately.
>This was a term I'd previously associated with the Great Plains of the US.
>I can see that east (and west? - Ira?) coast troughs might be roughly
>analagous to the American situation, but is it a term the ASWA has just
>started to use for convenience or do BoM types over there also use it?
>
>Just interested.
>
>Classic Adelaide summer weather persists at the moment [an for a change
>this summer]. Very hot, very low humidity, with some high based congestus
>developing in the afternoon (but no rain hitting the ground). All in all,
>pretty boring. Moisture injection please ...
>
>Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
>paisley at cobweb.com.au
>http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
>
>
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013
X-Originating-IP: [203.101.79.58]
From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA att paul
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 00:08:22 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hiya Paul....
Blame the STA on me....I rang BOM severe weather section and advised of a
very intense ts and a dump of 15mm in 15 mins....came around 3 times
spinning on its axis as it headed north. I reported 35 knot gusts....Andrew
from BOM told me the AWS 5 miles south of here from the same cell produced
50 knot gusts and same rainfall....he decided on the report to issue the
STA.
Cheers Halden
PS I think you might get it later...it is hugging the coast....heaps of
intense lightning.....ball lightning with it too shooting out horizontally.
One came at us from the south from about 2 miles in the second squall
line...scared the shit out of me
>From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com"
>
>Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA
>Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 16:26:40 +0930
>
>SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
>Issued at 1741 on Wednesday the 12th of January 2000
>
>This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
>
>Northern Rivers and Mid-North Coast north of about Kempsey
>
>Thunderstorms and heavy showers are occurring within the advice area and
>are
>forecast to continue this afternoon and evening. Some of these are expected
>to be severe bringing locally destructive winds and short periods of very
>heavy rainfall.
>
>Wind strong enough to damage houses and trees has already been reported
>from
>Evans Head this afternoon.
>
>The STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE advises that as storms approach people should:
> * put vehicles under cover
> * move indoors away from windows
>
>During and after the storm people should:
> * beware of fallen trees and power lines
>
>The RTA recommends motorists switch their lights & wipers on & slow down in
>the wet.
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014
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: More articles??
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 19:35:27 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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There was certainly a sharp rise in temperatures on the coast as winds pre
dry line were NE sea breezes. The term dry line is one that is quite
acceptable, and some of the pics Jimmy has in his collection could have
passed as a dryline in Dallas, Texas ( especially the pic of yours mentioned
a few weeks ago by Leslie Lemon )
Michael
>
> So what is the difference between a trough line and dry line?? Is it just
> different terminology used in different countries? Perhaps someone can
shed
> some light into the debate. I recall Anthony saying that the structure of
a
> dry line and trough line are different... I would think they are the same
> thing but perhaps it varies in different parts of the country. The same
> line affected NNSW and SEQld on the 5th January with more probable
> supercells. One would have to get a good bearing of the change in the dew
> points but I have none of that information. I am purely going on the
> satellite picture.
>
> One also must not get confused with convergence zones ie NE winds meeting
> NW winds.
>
> Oh well we will let the discussion take place.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 09:12 12/01/00 +0930, you wrote:
>
> > >This articles is on the 4th January dry line outbreak in
> > >
> >
>http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/storm_news/2000/docs/0001-
0
> > >4.htm
> > >
> > >Please enjoy. Great to see a whole lot of articles from all the
various
> > >sites ready for the next edition of Storm News!!
> > >
> > >Jimmy Deguara
> >
> >Hi Jimmy
> >
> >I've noticed our eastern states friends using the term 'dry-line' lately.
> >This was a term I'd previously associated with the Great Plains of the
US.
> >I can see that east (and west? - Ira?) coast troughs might be roughly
> >analagous to the American situation, but is it a term the ASWA has just
> >started to use for convenience or do BoM types over there also use it?
> >
> >Just interested.
> >
> >Classic Adelaide summer weather persists at the moment [an for a change
> >this summer]. Very hot, very low humidity, with some high based
congestus
> >developing in the afternoon (but no rain hitting the ground). All in
all,
> >pretty boring. Moisture injection please ...
> >
> >Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
> >paisley at cobweb.com.au
> >http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
> >
> >
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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015
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: AR-22 1999-2000: Weather Services in the BoM - comments.
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 19:31:36 +1100
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I could go on all day, but unfortunately it is the product of the
rationalisation / privatisation economic theory that most western
governments seem to worship as religion. In the end somebody suffers and
pays to push the wealth upwards, and that is usually those that can least
afford. Take the Telstra float, the government talks how Mr Joe Average can
buy a piece of the stock market. But Mr Joe Average often lives in western
Sydney, has a mortgage and is flat out feeding his kids.
I think the BOM will probably go the way of New Zealand and the UK, I don't
blame the staff, even the senior ones are on contract to be " Yes Men "
otherwise they find themselves unemployed.
I just hope that Weather 21 can still provide the radar coverage it
currently does, but unfortunately this is not an option for city folk.
Michael
> These comments should perhaps be aired in a tighter circle
> of people but I am not sure who in the BoM is watching the
> list and would be interested.
>
> When Laurier sent out an E-Mail highlighting the Auditor
> General's report, I grabbed a copy and have be reading it
> slowly over the last few weeks.
>
> I must stress that the following views are of mine, that
> are extremely filtered (I may have missed something really
> important) and are personal views. If you have any further
> comments, it is perhaps best to send these back to me
> directly unless you consider your comments of a more general
> interest.
>
> 1) Scope of Audit - This was well identified and the report
> did not stray outside the scope. The problem that I found
> with the scope was that it needed to be broader. It should
> have examined matters of procedure, in particular that
> relating to severe weather detection/observation and the
> role of storm spotters in improving the Probability Of
> Detection (POD). I have more comments about this in 5).
>
> 2) Audit Emphasis - I detected an underlying frustration
> from the auditors. This manifested in the recommendations
> which in number, focussed on BoM internal systems and
> their inadequacies when it comes to reporting. There was
> a welcome emphasis on consistency related to difficulties
> in reporting in areas such as AIFS and benchmarking
> against leading meteorolgical agencies but I think this
> was a consequence of the audit and not the main thrust.
> While AR 8,9 and 10 related to severe weather, the focus
> was on juggling resources around such as the Severe
> Weather roster.
>
> 3) Recommendation Prioritisation - There was no reasonable
> attempt by the auditors to prioritise the recommendations
> in relation to one another. The one priority indentified
> was AR No.7 Para 3.27 concerning revenue generation where
> the UK approach was cited as the best example, but this
> approach is at logger-heads with respect to World's Best
> Practice (WBP) in meteorolgy, for example in severe weather
> forecasting. Other recommendation prioritisation was largely
> left up to the BoM, perhaps rightly so, but I think a lot
> more could have been gained by comparing World's Best
> Practice in core meteorology practices against that done
> in Australia and relating that in terms of priorities for
> the BoM to consider.
>
> 4) Audit Conflicts - When the auditors examined other
> agencies, it was mainly for the purpose of comparing
> costs and revenue generation. Only Table 3 in 2.15
> examined forecast accuracy in the USA and Table 9 in
> 4.28 looked at POD in the USA and Australia. While every
> intent was apparent to improve, say, severe weather
> forcasting, the audit failed to examine in detail how
> the world's best practice in this regard was achieved.
> In summary, the auditors picked on those cases which
> best fitted what they wanted to achieve from the report.
> I think this was more revenue generation to cover areas
> of cost increases such as with the observation network.
> This, in my opinion, is a major source of conflict in
> that the BoM cannot be a major source of revenue, run
> on a shoe-string budget and be one of the most efficient
> world's best all at the same time. One only needs to
> compare the USA and UK to see the difference.
>
> 5) Severe Weather - I think the Audit Report missed the
> point with severe weather largely because the scope
> excluded a more detailed analysis. The one mention of
> what it takes comes in 4.28 "The better performance of
> the USA can be explained by factors such as the higher
> density of the observation network in the USA (roughly
> twice the number of synoptic stations). the higher
> number of storm spotters (the USA has 122 000 compared
> tp Australia's 2850) and the more powerful NEXRAD radar
> system operating in the USA (The USA has a network of
> 123 NEXRAD units that provide nationwide Dopplar radar
> coverage for detection of severe weather events)." No
> mention of how to make the spotter network more
> effective e.g. ASWA and free met-data access etc. yet
> Recommendation 9 and 10 repeat that the BoM should
> prioritise toward severe weather forecasting but makes
> no call to improve POD.
>
> In summary, I was largely dissappointed in Audit Report
> No.22 1999-2000. The recommendations are strong on the
> increased revenue focus but weak in areas such as what
> is really needed to improve severe weather forecasting.
> We all know that improved severe weather forecasting needs
> in addition to the specialised BoM severe weather people,
> a mobile, keen and well-trained "spotter" network, more
> and improved observation technology such as synoptic
> stations and dopplar radar (that means more capital
> expenditure, not less) and free access (by at least the
> spotters) to all meteorological observation data and
> models. All the Audit Report said was prioritise
> severe weather forecasting, move around BoM people to
> suit, improve the maintainance of equipment, better and
> consistent reporting and integrate severe weather
> performance monitoring with AIFS.
>
> Potentially, this Audit Report is not good for ASWA. In
> a round-about way, ASWA has pooled resources to make
> appropriate met-data available at minimal cost to ASWA
> members. But the Audit Report detail calls for the BoM
> to expedite a transaction-based revenue collection
> base for specialised services to increase revenues.
> If the BoM goes ahead with this for radar and applies
> this to ASWA, it will prove extremely expensive for ASWA
> given our current radar modus-operandi. ASWA Committee
> food for thought, I would say.
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
016
X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 20:14:03 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: close lightning bolt
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
My father called after returning to Ballina from my place. On the way home
driving just east of Alstonville about 5.40pm, lightning struck a power
pole just in front of him - sparks showered across the road and cars and he
throught the worse - that the pole may collapse - but it stayed put. He
said that the noise was incredible and he noticed the sound before he
noticed the lightning flash.
Today has been dominated by large cbs moving in off the ocean - heavy
showers about with plenty of thunder.
cheers, Michael
==================================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
Wollongbar NSW 2477 http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Secretary ASWA Inc. http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
==================================================================
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017
From: "Matthew Piper" [mjpiper at ozemail.com.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Tornado Doco Reminder
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 20:15:32 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Everyone,
Just a quick note to remind everyone to watch the
doco on the Oklahoma tornados which starts on ABC at 8:30pm EDST.
Matthew Piper
018
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 21:34:41 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado Doco Reminder
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Hi Everyone, Just a quick note to remind everyone to watch the doco
>on the Oklahoma tornados which starts on ABC at 8:30pm EDST. Matthew
>Piper
My god - I've just watched the damn thing. Some of the scariest footage
I've ever seen. That 2x4 through the tyre was just beyond belief.
One observation though. I hope none of our members ever try and get that
close to the heart of the beast. That storm spotter may have been
performing a valuable service, but getting within a hundred metres of the
edge of an F5 crossed the boundary of sanity for me......
Just my 0.02 worth
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
019
From: "John Graham" [gorzzz at optusnet.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado Doco Reminder
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 22:01:33 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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----- Original Message -----
From:
Matthew
Piper
To: Aussie Weather
Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2000 8:15
PM
Subject: aus-wx: Tornado Doco
Reminder
Hi Everyone,
Just a quick note to remind everyone to watch the
doco on the Oklahoma tornados which starts on ABC at 8:30pm EDST.
Matthew Piper
Hi All,
Did anyone on the list tape the program?????.....Aunty
decided to go off air 15 mins before it started (due to lightning I
think....)....didn't come back on 'til 40mins into the
show....GRRRRRRR
John from a VERY wet
Ballina........
020
From: "Marty" [martyp at dynamite.com.au]
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Fw: NASA ADMINISTRATOR HIGHLIGHTS AGENCY'S ROLE IN IMPROVING CLIMATE AND WEATHER PREDICTION
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 21:27:45 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all!
Thought you may find the following of interest, particularly the future
possibility of accurate 10- to 14-day forecasts.
Cheers!
Marty.
Brisbane, Australia
martyp at dynamite.com.au
Images of Canberra: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
Lightning Photos: http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
3D Photography: http://www.bit.net.au/~erinm/3d
ICQ: 11790565
>NASA ADMINISTRATOR HIGHLIGHTS AGENCY'S ROLE
>IN IMPROVING CLIMATE AND WEATHER PREDICTION
>
> In a keynote address to weather forecasters at their annual
>convention, NASA Administrator Daniel S. Goldin yesterday outlined
>the space agency's role in studying Earth's climate -- a
>commitment to scientific research and technology development that
>will help forecasters make more accurate weather predictions in
>the new millennium.
>
> Speaking to the American Meteorological Society convention in
>Long Beach, CA, Goldin discussed how NASA technology and climate
>studies can help predict such dramatic events as El Nino and La
>Nina -- providing advance notice that saved America billions of
>dollars last year alone. For the future, NASA has set goals for
>its Earth Sciences research and technology development projects
>that may result in new satellite technologies and models to help
>National Weather Service replace the common three- to five-day
>forecasts of today with accurate 10- to 14-day forecasts, Goldin
>added.
>
> With the use of satellite data and better computer modeling
>techniques, meteorologists in the next ten years may be able to
>predict El Nino weather conditions up to 15 months in advance and
>detect hurricanes far enough ahead to help protect lives and
>property, Goldin told the meteorologists.
>
> "What most people don't know is that our efforts to open the
>space frontier are largely based on our quest to understand our
>own planet," Goldin said. "Our development of new technologies
>and Earth-observing spacecraft complement the vital work of our
>sister agencies in weather prediction and global climate
>modeling."
>
> Ongoing Earth Science missions that contribute to our
>understanding of the global climate include:
>
> * Landsat 7, an Earth-mapping satellite that provides imagery
>of the planet for use in understanding natural events all over the
>world. Building on a 27-year heritage of data, Landsat 7 can help
>researchers understand the effects of hurricanes and their
>flooding of coastal regions, as well as monitor natural fires and
>droughts all over our planet.
>
> * Quikscat, a satellite launched last spring that tracks wind
>currents over the ocean's surface. This information can help
>scientists understand the interactions between Earth's oceans and
>the atmosphere and help them predict the evolution and movement of
>severe storms.
>
> * TOPEX/POSEIDON, a NASA-French mission that uses radar to
>study ocean-surface topography and heat content, two more clues
>into how El Ni–o and other ocean events affect the weather that
>crosses our nation each day.
>
> * The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, a NASA-Japanese
>mission that continues to provide profound new insights into
>events such as hurricanes, modeling them in three dimensions while
>showing how energy is used within the storm. This knowledge will
>help experts understand how these most violent of Earthbound
>storms work. Experimental forecasts done last fall using this
>satellite's data demonstrated much better tracking of some of the
>year's devastating east coast hurricanes, including Dennis and
>Floyd.
>
> * The ACRIMSAT mission, launched last month, will measure how
>changes in the Sun's energy affect Earth's climate.
>
> * Terra, also launched just last month, will enable new
>research into the ways that Earth's lands, oceans, air, ice and
>life function as a planet-wide system. In the coming months and
>years, this major "Earth Observatory" will provide new insights
>into how our home planet behaves.
>
> NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, Washington, DC, is a long-
>term research program designed to study the Earth's land, oceans,
>air, ice and life as a total system. More information about
>NASA's Earth Science Enterprise can be found on the Internet at:
>
> http://www.earth.nasa.gov
>
> -end-
>
> * * *
>
>NASA press releases and other information are available automatically
>by sending an Internet electronic mail message to domo at hq.nasa.gov.
>In the body of the message (not the subject line) users should type
>the words "subscribe press-release" (no quotes). The system will
>reply with a confirmation via E-mail of each subscription. A second
>automatic message will include additional information on the service.
>NASA releases also are available via CompuServe using the command
>GO NASA. To unsubscribe from this mailing list, address an E-mail
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021
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 22:05:14 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: FNMOC & PCMDI Down?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Has anyone been able to get updates from the FNMOC and PCMDI AVN/MRF/NGP
in the past few days? I know PCMDI has been down since Dec 27...but
FNMOC has recently stopped updating on the ASWA page (showing missing
images), and I was wondering if anyone knew anything about this?
Thanks,
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
022
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 04:09:40 -0800 (PST)
From: Mario Paul [stormtwist at yahoo.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fw: NASA ADMINISTRATOR HIGHLIGHTS AGENCY'S ROLE IN IMPROVING CLIMATE AND WEATHER PREDICTION
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
--- Marty wrote:
> Hi all!
>
> Thought you may find the following of interest,
> particularly the future
> possibility of accurate 10- to 14-day forecasts.
>
> Cheers!
> Marty.
> Brisbane, Australia
> martyp at dynamite.com.au
> Images of Canberra:
> http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp
> Lightning Photos:
> http://www2.dynamite.com.au/martyp/lightning
> 3D Photography: http://www.bit.net.au/~erinm/3d
> ICQ: 11790565
>
> >NASA ADMINISTRATOR HIGHLIGHTS AGENCY'S ROLE
> >IN IMPROVING CLIMATE AND WEATHER PREDICTION
> >
> > In a keynote address to weather forecasters at
> their annual
> >convention, NASA Administrator Daniel S. Goldin
> yesterday outlined
> >the space agency's role in studying Earth's climate
> -- a
> >commitment to scientific research and technology
> development that
> >will help forecasters make more accurate weather
> predictions in
> >the new millennium.
> >
> > Speaking to the American Meteorological
> Society convention in
> >Long Beach, CA, Goldin discussed how NASA
> technology and climate
> >studies can help predict such dramatic events as El
> Nino and La
> >Nina -- providing advance notice that saved America
> billions of
> >dollars last year alone. For the future, NASA has
> set goals for
> >its Earth Sciences research and technology
> development projects
> >that may result in new satellite technologies and
> models to help
> >National Weather Service replace the common three-
> to five-day
> >forecasts of today with accurate 10- to 14-day
> forecasts, Goldin
> >added.
> >
> > With the use of satellite data and better
> computer modeling
> >techniques, meteorologists in the next ten years
> may be able to
> >predict El Nino weather conditions up to 15 months
> in advance and
> >detect hurricanes far enough ahead to help protect
> lives and
> >property, Goldin told the meteorologists.
> >
> > "What most people don't know is that our
> efforts to open the
> >space frontier are largely based on our quest to
> understand our
> >own planet," Goldin said. "Our development of new
> technologies
> >and Earth-observing spacecraft complement the vital
> work of our
> >sister agencies in weather prediction and global
> climate
> >modeling."
> >
> > Ongoing Earth Science missions that contribute
> to our
> >understanding of the global climate include:
> >
> > * Landsat 7, an Earth-mapping satellite that
> provides imagery
> >of the planet for use in understanding natural
> events all over the
> >world. Building on a 27-year heritage of data,
> Landsat 7 can help
> >researchers understand the effects of hurricanes
> and their
> >flooding of coastal regions, as well as monitor
> natural fires and
> >droughts all over our planet.
> >
> > * Quikscat, a satellite launched last spring
> that tracks wind
> >currents over the ocean's surface. This information
> can help
> >scientists understand the interactions between
> Earth's oceans and
> >the atmosphere and help them predict the evolution
> and movement of
> >severe storms.
> >
> > * TOPEX/POSEIDON, a NASA-French mission that
> uses radar to
> >study ocean-surface topography and heat content,
> two more clues
> >into how El Ni–o and other ocean events affect the
> weather that
> >crosses our nation each day.
> >
> > * The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, a
> NASA-Japanese
> >mission that continues to provide profound new
> insights into
> >events such as hurricanes, modeling them in three
> dimensions while
> >showing how energy is used within the storm. This
> knowledge will
> >help experts understand how these most violent of
> Earthbound
> >storms work. Experimental forecasts done last fall
> using this
> >satellite's data demonstrated much better tracking
> of some of the
> >year's devastating east coast hurricanes, including
> Dennis and
> >Floyd.
> >
> > * The ACRIMSAT mission, launched last month,
> will measure how
> >changes in the Sun's energy affect Earth's climate.
> >
> > * Terra, also launched just last month, will
> enable new
> >research into the ways that Earth's lands, oceans,
> air, ice and
> >life function as a planet-wide system. In the
> coming months and
> >years, this major "Earth Observatory" will provide
> new insights
> >into how our home planet behaves.
> >
> > NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, Washington,
> DC, is a long-
> >term research program designed to study the Earth's
> land, oceans,
> >air, ice and life as a total system. More
> information about
> >NASA's Earth Science Enterprise can be found on the
> Internet at:
> >
> > http://www.earth.nasa.gov
> >
> > -end-
> >
well they obviously dont know anything about chaos
theory then do they....never judge the weather
stormtwist
> > * * *
> >
> >NASA press releases and other information are
> available automatically
> >by sending an Internet electronic mail message to
> domo at hq.nasa.gov.
> >In the body of the message (not the subject line)
> users should type
> >the words "subscribe press-release" (no quotes).
> The system will
> >reply with a confirmation via E-mail of each
> subscription. A second
> >automatic message will include additional
> information on the service.
> >NASA releases also are available via CompuServe
> using the command
> >GO NASA. To unsubscribe from this mailing list,
> address an E-mail
> >message to domo at hq.nasa.gov, leave the subject
> blank, and type only
> >"unsubscribe press-release" (no quotes) in the body
> of the message.
>
>
>
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> message.
>
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
023
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 22:01:54 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dry Line (was More articles??)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi John and all,
John Woodbridge wrote:
You're quite correct about your thoughts of the dryline John, and as you
mentioned, does commonly occur in central Queensland during summer.
Despite being so far from the sea, and the blocking effect of the Great
Dividing Range (or, to be politically correct - the Eastern Highlands as
I quote unquote from my old geography teacher "...they are neither
great, nor dividing..." ), inland Queensland can still
atain fairly high DP's, in the order of 19-23C. On the other hand, it
can be extremely dry in summer, often approaching 0C (although I would
suspect in summer, they would rarely drop below 0C). A dryline is a
sharp drop in the moisture, often marked by a decrease in DP's - it's
difficult to use a difference in RH, as RH isn't simply just a moisture
value, but also very relative to heat, so discontinuities of RH can
exist without the moisture content of the air actually dropping itself.
DP's also has a similar effect, as you can have an increase/decrease in
DP just by a change in the pressure - however this change isn't nearly
as marked as RH, and to my knowledge is a fairly good indicator of
dryline situations. I believe other attemps have been made to help
establish the line between different air masses (eg, tropical
continental, tropical maritime, polar continental etc) - such values
that have been tried have included the Theta-E (potential temperature),
and Theta-W (potential wet bulb temperature). Very little work (if all)
has been put into this in Australia - but I have read interesting
discussions of Theta-E in the US corresponding to severe thunderstorms.
It is generally believed, that in central Queensland, DP differences can
reach up to 15C over a relatively small strech of land. Dryline
situations are probably more common than most people realise. Drylines
(to my understanding), work in a similar way to a cold front. Just as
the cold air is more dense than the warmer air, and wants to undercut
the warm air and lift it - the dry air is more dense than moist air,
hence lifts it the same way. I know some people in the US when they
forecast for their thunderstorms, take little note of the cold front,
and more note of the dryline! The dryline may also have other
advantages to it - for example, perhaps divergence/difluence/dry mid
levels are more prominent over the dryline, than say over the cold
front? I'm only speculating here - but I have sometimes noticed that
some upper level features actually preceed the cold front itself. While
other times it's been the opposite.
The boundary seems to generally
> coincide with the trough line but can move to the East of the trough line
> quite considerably.
> And maybe our "dry line" is in fact just a NE/NW convergence zone...
In central Queensland, most drylines do in fact coincide with a trough,
or occur very close to the trough. The process of a trough however, is
slightly different to a dry line though.
For example:
A cold front/dry line tends to force the warmer air ahead of it to rise,
this is combined with a line of both confluence, and convergence (these
two terms are often incorrectly mixed, convergence is air converging (ie
slowing down) on an area, where as confluence is air contracting inwards
to this. Divergence is air accelerating quickly over an area (moving
away quickly in a straight line), where as difluence is air spreading
out over an area. Essentially, (x)vergence deals with wind speeds,
where as (x)fluence deals with the actual streamlines itself. It is
possible to have convergence, and difluence, and divergence and
confluence, but never two (x)vergences/(x)fluences together.) A cold
front is also often associated with a transition of cold air aloft, and
an area of strong shear, frequently backing with height at 180 degrees.
Because of the fact they're often associated with shear, I find they
generally create "clear" thunderstorms, this can make these storms look
much more spectacular on camera, rather than a day of 'muck' anvil
cirrus.
A trough however I find tends to act differently. Besides the obvious
fact that air is rising over the area (hence the reason for lower
pressure), and the area of good convergence/confluence at the surface -
there's also another factor that enhances instability - which is not
dissimilar to why elevated regions tend to have stronger instability.
It can get a little tricky to try and explain...but often 1000mb is used
as a base over a given area.
Lets say the temperature is 30C, the DP is 20C, and the pressure is
1015hPa.
Lets use another example, where the temperature is 30C, the DP is 20C,
and the pressure is 1005hPa.
Assuming equal mixing, winds, topographical effects etc - which scenario
will be warmest at 1000mb? At an educated guess, the 1005hPa scenario
would be warmest at 1000mb. This is correct. The reason is because
1005hPa is closer to 1000hPa than 1015hPa. Air cools as it rises and
expands, typically at 9.8C/km (or the DALR) - lets round this to 10C/km
for simplicity. Well, surface air thickness tends to follow a similar
pattern. There is approximately 50m height between 1005hPa and 1000hPa,
vs the 150m height between the 1015hPa and 1000hPa. At a rate of 10C/km
- you can see that obviously, it's going to be 1C warmer at 1000mb in
the second scenario. In a way, a trough line is like elevated surface
heating - there's less distance between the hot air, and the cold air.
Not much - but enough to sometimes make a difference.
Occassionally, these two can combine (the front and the trough system),
for example - often in the eastern states of Australia, the pre-frontal
trough can be the most exciting. This normally lies just ahead of the
cold front itself. Given that drylines tend to favour/occur in areas
very close to the trough line, is it possible that the pre-frontal
trough actually doubles as a dryline? This would certainly explain why
some US chasers prefer the dryline than the cold front itself, as most
of our best storms occur on the pre-frontal trough, and not the cold
front itself. Squall lines tend to form more commonly on the front
itself.
> In spring/summer in QLD, Cold fronts as such rarely exist, the tail ends
> being represented by a SE change, which may occur along the coast without
> displacing the in-land trough. On other occasions, typically in spring, the
> SE change will be "absorbed" into the trough and appear to drag it over the
> coast.
I've often prefered and loved the SE change, over any other such front
(except SSE or maybe even S'ly). As soon as the change/front positions
itself as such to give us SW'ly winds, I nearly always discount that
front. I've never been able to establish a sound, scientific
explanation for this, but I've always disliked SW'ly fronts. I've often
theorised that maybe you just don't get the convergence like you would
with a SE front intruding on a NE inflow, pushing it all against our
beloved border ranges. Where as SW'ly would be much more gradual, and
the main convergence zone would actually occur several km away from the
border ranges themselves (as wind is affected by ten times the height of
the object, so if a mountain is 1km high, than wind will not take its
original direction/speed until 10km away from that mountain).
Therefore, the convergence zone overall is weaker.
I also dislike SW'ly winds too close to the surface, even just aloft can
destroy even the best potential thunderstorm day. I'd be interested to
hear anyone opinions of this. It's only local - SE QLD and maybe NE
NSW, the southern states don't have a problem with SW'ly fronts.
I do have a hunch it has something to do with moisture though.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
024
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 22:26:12 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: (Sub)Tropical Brisbane's Cold Air Cb's - in the middle of summer!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Well, up here in the "sub-tropics" we had some nice cold air Cb's today,
with 500mb temps crashing to a near, unheard of -15C at 500mb, and -43C at
300mb. Typically, summer 500mb temps should be -4 to -6C, and winter
500mb temps should be in the order of -14 to -16C. So we essentially
have a fairly average winter profile over us, with a summerish surface
(if you can call the mid 20's summer!)
Some nice Cb's none the less...nice structure, and some good updrafts.
All the anvils were weak, but some were photogenic in the Sun, mixed in
with other TCU updrafts. I also observed some hail shafts to my WNW,
with the air being so cold, small hail was quite possible today.
Unfortunately, the anvil cirrus covered the sky and killed everything
early in the afternoon due to a weak upper flow :(
Currently, some occassional lightning to the south of Brisbane.
Tomorrow should be quite similar, possibly better with SE winds nearing
gale force on the coast, and around 40kn just offshore.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
025
From: "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado Doco Reminder
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 23:31:23 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I have it on tape.........may take it to Sydney ASWA meeting if anyone missed it
Max
Just a quick note to remind everyone to watch the doco on the Oklahoma tornados which starts on ABC at 8:30pm EDST.
Matthew Piper
Hi All,
Did anyone on the list tape the program?????.....Aunty decided to go off air 15 mins before it started (due to lightning I think....)....didn't come back on 'til 40mins into the show....GRRRRRRR
John from a VERY wet Ballina........
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
| Document: 000112.htm
Updated: 19 January 2000 |
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