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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Friday, 14 January 2000 |
From Subject
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001 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] BSCH Update
002 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] MSC site down
003 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] Flooding in NE NSW
004 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Supercells confirmed on SA/WA border
005 "The Weather Co." [twc at theweather.com.au] Flooding in NE NSW
006 "mbath at ozemail.com.au" [mbath at ozemail.com.au] Flooding in NE NSW
007 "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au] chaos theory...
008 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Off Topic: Bill Gates Becomes 1st Violin in the MicroSoft Or
009 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. chaos theory...
010 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] chaos theory...
011 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Hail in Perth
012 Tom Johnstone [Iain.Johnstone at pse.unige.ch] Hail in Perth
013 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More
014 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Flooding in NE NSW
015 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com] Wilsons River
016 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com] ASWA Minor Flood attn Mike
017 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] Hail in Perth
018 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More
019 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Tropical Low
020 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Flooding in NE NSW
021 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Flooding in NE NSW
022 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Flooding in NE NSW
023 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] MSC website
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 11:47:34 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: aus-wx: BSCH Update
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Hi Everyone,
Quite a large BSCH update - 73 pictures added to the Weather Photography
section..
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/pictures/picturegallerynew.htm
These include pictures from the Big Chase, the December 10 Supercell,
and the January 5 storms..
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002
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: MSC site down
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 08:34:51 +1100
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Well, it's not just my site - my ISP (rubix) has been hacked over the last
couple of days & it's still going on - if you get a 403 or 404 message -
please be patient over the next couple of days while they sort themselves
out.
I've been getting the preliminary report re the Paraparap F0 slowly
organised - but can't get it there - and the Snappy is getting sorted today
so hopefully I will have video stills for you by the end of the
weekend......
Jane ONeill
ASWA - Victoria
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From: "mbath at ozemail.com.au" [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
003
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Subject: aus-wx: Flooding in NE NSW
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Hi all,
Heavy rain here in the past 24 hours or so. We had about 80mm in the 48 hours to 3pm yesterday, with another 160mm falling in the 15 hours to 6am this morning (at Wollongbar). Some from thunderstorms. Falls between 150 and 250mm have been recorded in the catchment above Lismore in the past 24 hours.
The BoM has confirmed Halden's earlier prediction of a minor flood for the Wilsons River at Lismore:
Flood Warning Number : 2
RENEWAL MINOR
FLOOD WARNING For the Wilsons Rivers
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 6:59am on Friday the 14th of January 2000
Although rainfalls appear at this stage to be easing across the Wilsons
catchment further rain is forecast over the next 24 hours. If the rain does
not intensify, a peak of around 5.5 to 6.0 metres AHD can be expected at
Lismore.
River rises are expected in the Richmond following some heavy falls, especially
around Wiangaree between midnight and 6am this morning. However, at this stage,
the river is expected to remain below minor flooding.
For further information contact the State Emergency Service
River Height Predictions
Lismore Exceed MINOR flood level [4.2 metres AHD]
around 9am.
Peak between 5.5 to 6.0 metres AHD around 6pm
tonight 14/1/00. Further rises are possible if the
rain intensifies.
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004
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Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 08:52:59 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Supercells confirmed on SA/WA border
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Ira,
I thank you very much for confirming from the Bureau or otherside that they
were supercells because as you know we only speculate from the structure
and size on the satpic and also the explosive devlopment in the correct
shear condition. I wish this sort of confirmation was more widespread!!!!
Jimmy Deguara
At 15:36 13/01/00 +0800, you wrote:
>I spoke with Barry from the BOM today and he confirmed that these were
>supercells, He said the Eucla had them 3 days running and on the day Jimmy
>mentioned this i was watching a group of them on radar. Barry said there
>were 4 going at once and one was a left mover which took off. Id have to
>say that with 3 days of supercells there must have been at least one nader
>out there. Pity its like 2 days drive and i have a life...............:(
>
> Ira Fehlberg
>
>At 17:35 12/01/00 +1100, you wrote:
> >The storm on the SA/WA border area is quite large and has exploded since
> >the last image. Well for those not on until later I have saved this image
> >into the temp directory.
> >
> >http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/temp/000112/0001120530.jpg
> >
> >Those storms are massive.
> >
> >Please do not link to this particular link as it will be removed.
> >
> >Jimmy Deguara
> >
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
>
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005
From: "The Weather Co." [twc at theweather.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flooding in NE NSW
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 09:46:14 +1100
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Michael
Is it Wilson River or Wilsons River? The BoM seem to refer to it as both in
their warnings. Our Australian Atlas has it as Wilson River.
, MH
____________________
The Weather Company
Level 2, 7 West Street
North Sydney 2060
Phone: (02) 9955 7704
Fax: (02) 9955 1536
twc at theweather.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Friday, January 14, 2000 8:48 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Flooding in NE NSW
> Hi all,
>
> Heavy rain here in the past 24 hours or so. We had about 80mm in the 48
hours to 3pm yesterday, with another 160mm falling in the 15 hours to 6am
this morning (at Wollongbar). Some from thunderstorms. Falls between 150 and
250mm have been recorded in the catchment above Lismore in the past 24
hours.
>
> The BoM has confirmed Halden's earlier prediction of a minor flood for the
Wilsons River at Lismore:
>
> Flood Warning Number : 2
> RENEWAL MINOR
> FLOOD WARNING For the Wilsons Rivers
> BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
> Issued at 6:59am on Friday the 14th of January 2000
>
> Although rainfalls appear at this stage to be easing across the Wilsons
> catchment further rain is forecast over the next 24 hours. If the rain
does
> not intensify, a peak of around 5.5 to 6.0 metres AHD can be expected at
> Lismore.
>
> River rises are expected in the Richmond following some heavy falls,
especially
> around Wiangaree between midnight and 6am this morning. However, at this
stage,
> the river is expected to remain below minor flooding.
>
>
> For further information contact the State Emergency Service
>
> River Height Predictions
>
> Lismore Exceed MINOR flood level [4.2 metres AHD]
> around 9am.
> Peak between 5.5 to 6.0 metres AHD around 6pm
> tonight 14/1/00. Further rises are possible if the
> rain intensifies.
>
> __________________________________________________________
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>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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006
From: "mbath at ozemail.com.au" [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flooding in NE NSW
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Mark,
It is the Wilsons River according to all the maps I have and from all the media I have listened to this morning. I have seen the Lismore river referred to as Wilson and Wilsons over the years, but it is "Wilsons".
There is a Wilson River just north of Port Macquarie.
More rainfall figures for Northern Rivers district for the past 72 hours to 9am:
12th 13th 14th
(BoM)
Ballina 24 35 47
Ballina AP 32 34 53
Cape Byron 24 15 56
Casino 13 24 27
Evans Head AWS 104 60 97
Grafton 3 8 10
Kyogle 27 63
Lismore 9 73 119
Mullumbimby 72 118
Murwillumbah 4 23 45
Whiporie 23
Woodburn 48 88
Yamba 14 46 17
(from me:)
Wollongbar 32 28 171
McLeans Ridges 37 36 153
regards, Michael
At 09:46 14/01/2000 +1100, you wrote:
>Michael
>Is it Wilson River or Wilsons River? The BoM seem to refer to it as both in
>their warnings. Our Australian Atlas has it as Wilson River.
>, MH
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007
From: "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au]
To: "Aussie Weather Digest (E-mail)" [aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: chaos theory...
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 11:24:48 +1000
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>Marty wrote
>certainly understand what you're saying, that chaos pretty much dictates
that
>we'll never be able to predict the weather, but I figure we should always
keep
>an open mind. Maybe we'll discover that chaos theory is wrong. Who
knows
>what will happen in the future?
Hate to say it Marty but the most relevant fact of "chaos theory" is
unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. For forecasting, (probably)
the most important "fact" is that errors in our initial knowledge grow at
approximately an exponential rate before reaching some level of saturation
(at saturation our forecast is no better than a guess). Even with a perfect
forecast model, the initial errors will grow because this is a natural
feature of "all" dynamical system with more than 3 degrees of freedom (the
atmosphere has million of degrees of freedom).
Anyway, the up-shot is that unless we have a perfect analysis our forecasts
will always go off the tracks, the question being when. My understanding is
that estimates of the theoretical limit to weather prediction lie at about
14 days, for a perfect model with "near perfect analysis". An interesting
real world observation to support this is the diminishing pace of forecast
improvement seen in the ECMWF model (probably the world's best) since 1979.
Cheers,
DAJ
________
Dr David Jones ( ___)
( )
Climate Analysis Section () )
National Climate Centre ( ) )
Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 ( )__ )
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 (________)_)
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425 .... ..
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au .... ..
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008
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 11:47:58 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Off Topic: Bill Gates Becomes 1st Violin in the MicroSoft Orchestra...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Off the topic, but the announcement was made early this morning
14/01/2000 AEST time...
http://www.msnbc.com/news/357171.asp?cp1=1
With BG as Chief Software Architech and Steve Ballmer as the CEO,
does this herald a split in the company with these two leading
each, but quite different parts?
MicroSoft has been getting quite ruffled by the US Legal System
recently and it was rumoured that the US Government might try to
break up MicroSoft just as it did with "ma Bell". Perhaps this
manoeuvre is designed to perform the split early, willingly,
rationally but essentially along "media/service" and "technology"
lines so that each entity is somewhat leaner and more able to
float. MicroSoft was just too big as a single company. It might
be a bit late considering the AOL merger with Time-Warner. In
fact, entirely possible that the AOL/Time-Warner move forced
MicroSoft to make this decision. Watch this space!
Unfortunately, it might be a while before Bill's influence as
"Chief Software Architech" gives a positive impact to the
robustness and usability of MicroSoft software products:-)
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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009
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 12:08:11 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: chaos theory...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
To take another view, the only reason that weather predictions
don't go for a longer time is two-fold...1) inherently wrong
at the mesoscale and 2) wouldn't be looked at if they were
right or wrong. So in a nut-shell, it is not worth making a
better prediction 10-14 days out because of 2)...
This makes the job of climatologists an uphill battle. They
are always working in the area where uncertainties will always
outweigh facts. How could they ever be right?...Now that's
like waving a red flag at the DJ-bull However, in support
of Choas Theory, it would say. "given two identical Earth's,
there is no certainty that they will both follow the same
evolutionary path.". Chaos Theory is both right and wrong:-)
I suppose all these models do is make our weather forecasting
guesswork inherently better...
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
Dr David Jones wrote on Fri, 14 Jan 2000 11:24:48 +1000:
>
> Marty wrote on Thu, 13 Jan 2000 21:03:40 +1000
>
> > certainly understand what you're saying, that chaos pretty
> > much dictates that we'll never be able to predict the weather,
> > but I figure we should always keep an open mind. Maybe we'll
> > discover that chaos theory is wrong. Who knows what
> > will happen in the future?
>
> Hate to say it Marty but the most relevant fact of "chaos theory"
> is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. For forecasting,
> (probably) the most important "fact" is that errors in our initial
> knowledge grow at approximately an exponential rate before reaching
> some level of saturation (at saturation our forecast is no better
> than a guess). Even with a perfect forecast model, the initial
> errors will grow because this is a natural feature of "all"
> dynamical system with more than 3 degrees of freedom (the
> atmosphere has million of degrees of freedom).
>
> Anyway, the up-shot is that unless we have a perfect analysis our
> forecasts will always go off the tracks, the question being when.
> My understanding is that estimates of the theoretical limit to
> weather prediction lie at about 14 days, for a perfect model with
> "near perfect analysis". An interesting real world observation to
> support this is the diminishing pace of forecast improvement seen
> in the ECMWF model (probably the world's best) since 1979.
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010
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: chaos theory...
Date: Thu, 14 Jan 1999 11:44:31 +1000
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I suspect in fact that the Astmosphere has far fewer degrees of freedom than
this, but I guess chaos theory is why we are able to get apparently random
Lotto draws from just a couple of spins of the same ball draw machine
identically loaded. If you are a SF nut, track down a copy of "Patterns of
Chaos" by Colin Capp. Some entertaining notions therein.
John
>snip (the atmosphere has million of degrees of freedom).
>
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011
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Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 11:53:19 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Hail in Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Just got a call from my brother, fairly large hail he got while driving in
the suburb of Canning Vale in the southern suburbs, we had quite a bit of
lightning and thunder with some rain here in the northern suburbs about an
hour ago.
A Severe thunderstorm is out for most of the south west.
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE PERTH METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 11:47am WST on Friday the 14th of January 2000 for the remainder of
today and Saturday
FORECAST:
A Severe Thunderstorm Advice is current
A few showers and thunderstorms, easing slightly tomorrow. Local flooding,
hail
and possible squalls from storms.
Fresh, gusty E'ly winds later shifting SE/S'ly.
TODAY'S TEMPERATURE: Maximum: 25
TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES: Minimum: 17 Maximum: 25
PRIORITY
FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
Issued at 11:35 am WST on Friday, 14 January 2000
People in the Goldfields, east Gascoyne, inland Central West, Central
Wheatbelt,
Great Southern, Lower West [including the Perth Metropolitan area] and
Southwest
Districts are advised that there is a risk of severe thunderstorms today.
Storms may be accompanied by hail, flash flooding and strong winds that could
result in damage to property.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should keep a lookout for
thunderstorms and if storms approach secure loose items, move vehicles under
cover, then stay indoors until the storms have passed. Driving conditions
may be
hazardous.
This Thunderstorm Advice will be updated at 2:15pm.
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012
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Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 12:32:19 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Tom Johnstone [Iain.Johnstone at pse.unige.ch]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hail in Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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At 11:53 AM 1/14/00 +0800, you wrote:
>
>Just got a call from my brother, fairly large hail he got while driving in
>the suburb of Canning Vale in the southern suburbs, we had quite a bit of
>lightning and thunder with some rain here in the northern suburbs about an
>hour ago.
>
>A Severe thunderstorm is out for most of the south west.
About an hour ago in Wembley Downs we had a lot of hail and lightning and
then got 5-10 minutes of hail of about 2cm diameter, which is bigger than I
personally have seen before in Wembley Downs. I took a couple of pics and
will develop them in the next few days. Funniest thing was all the car
alarms going off.
Currently I'm at Uni in Nedlands, and we have conistent thunder, some
lightning and drenching rain.
Tom Johnstone
University of WA
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013
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 23:42:54 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More
articles??)]
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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All:
> > It is worth pointing out that there is indirect evidence of the severe
> > hailstorm which affected Sydney in 1947 as having LP characteristics -
the
> > storm dropped giant hail over a long track, (including a 'reported'
> > hailstone measuring 7x4x4 inches) yet very little rain was recorded.
Others
> > might have more info on this event.
Storms producing hail of this size are almost certainly not LPs. They
develop in regions of shallow or marginal moisture depth, are usually
characterized by a more shallow cloud depth and have reflectivities that
are often only moderate. While they do produce hail, they normally do not
produce large quantities. They also typically are narrow clouds and
sometimes will simply narrow until they dissipate....if they do so.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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014
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flooding in NE NSW
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 15:36:29 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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...and Mt Warrigal
.01 .01 .01
seem to score a 10 second shower in the small hours of the past few
mornings, but nothing but sunshine during the day.
Michael T
> Ballina 24 35 47
> Ballina AP 32 34 53
> Cape Byron 24 15 56
> Casino 13 24 27
> Evans Head AWS 104 60 97
> Grafton 3 8 10
> Kyogle 27 63
> Lismore 9 73 119
> Mullumbimby 72 118
> Murwillumbah 4 23 45
> Whiporie 23
> Woodburn 48 88
> Yamba 14 46 17
>
> (from me:)
> Wollongbar 32 28 171
> McLeans Ridges 37 36 153
>
> regards, Michael
>
>
> At 09:46 14/01/2000 +1100, you wrote:
> >Michael
> >Is it Wilson River or Wilsons River? The BoM seem to refer to it as both
in
> >their warnings. Our Australian Atlas has it as Wilson River.
> >, MH
>
>
> __________________________________________________________
> Message sent by MyMail http://www.mymail.com.au/
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015
X-Originating-IP: [203.101.79.72]
From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Wilsons River
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 21:01:01 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
G'day Weather Company....
Halden Boyd from ABC News Lismore (and ASWA)
It is the Wilsons River (no apostrophe), and it is the north arm of the
Richmond River system.
Cheers
>From: "The Weather Co."
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To:
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flooding in NE NSW
>Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 09:46:14 +1100
>
>Michael
>Is it Wilson River or Wilsons River? The BoM seem to refer to it as both in
>their warnings. Our Australian Atlas has it as Wilson River.
>, MH
>____________________
>The Weather Company
>Level 2, 7 West Street
>North Sydney 2060
>Phone: (02) 9955 7704
>Fax: (02) 9955 1536
>twc at theweather.com.au
>----- Original Message -----
>From:
>To:
>Sent: Friday, January 14, 2000 8:48 AM
>Subject: aus-wx: Flooding in NE NSW
>
>
> > Hi all,
> >
> > Heavy rain here in the past 24 hours or so. We had about 80mm in the 48
>hours to 3pm yesterday, with another 160mm falling in the 15 hours to 6am
>this morning (at Wollongbar). Some from thunderstorms. Falls between 150
>and
>250mm have been recorded in the catchment above Lismore in the past 24
>hours.
> >
> > The BoM has confirmed Halden's earlier prediction of a minor flood for
>the
>Wilsons River at Lismore:
> >
> > Flood Warning Number : 2
> > RENEWAL MINOR
> > FLOOD WARNING For the Wilsons Rivers
> > BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> > NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
> > Issued at 6:59am on Friday the 14th of January 2000
> >
> > Although rainfalls appear at this stage to be easing across the Wilsons
> > catchment further rain is forecast over the next 24 hours. If the rain
>does
> > not intensify, a peak of around 5.5 to 6.0 metres AHD can be expected at
> > Lismore.
> >
> > River rises are expected in the Richmond following some heavy falls,
>especially
> > around Wiangaree between midnight and 6am this morning. However, at
>this
>stage,
> > the river is expected to remain below minor flooding.
> >
> >
> > For further information contact the State Emergency Service
> >
> > River Height Predictions
> >
> > Lismore Exceed MINOR flood level [4.2 metres AHD]
> > around 9am.
> > Peak between 5.5 to 6.0 metres AHD around 6pm
> > tonight 14/1/00. Further rises are possible if the
> > rain intensifies.
> >
> > __________________________________________________________
> > Message sent by MyMail http://www.mymail.com.au/
> >
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>
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016
X-Originating-IP: [203.101.79.72]
From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: ASWA Minor Flood attn Mike
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 21:03:52 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey mate we beat the BOM by over 12 hours!!!!
Cheers Halden
>From: "Halden Boyd"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: ASWA Minor Flood Warning Northern NSW
>Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 00:03:14 PST
>
>Halden Boyd ASWA puts out the following to aus-wx people:
>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>*******MINOR FLOOD WARNING for the RICHMOND RIVER SYSTEM********
>(NORTH ARM WILSONS RIVER)
>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>Consistent rainfall in the Richmond (Wilsons River) catchment since April
>1999 which has saturated the water table, and new precipitation over the
>past 24 hours....and what will be dumped on it tonight from a low I have
>predicted (for the last 3 days) forming off the northern NSW coast will
>lead
>to a minor flooding in the Lismore region, especially upstream from the
>city. A minor flood warning will be issued from the BOM over the next 24
>hours for the area.
>Regards Halden Boyd
>Australian Severe Weather Association
>
>
>
>______________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>
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017
X-Sender: jra at upnaway.com
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Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 12:53:18 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hail in Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I just came from near UWA coming home from chasing and saw the hail also.
Ira Fehlberg
At 12:32 14/01/00 +0800, you wrote:
>At 11:53 AM 1/14/00 +0800, you wrote:
>>
>>Just got a call from my brother, fairly large hail he got while driving in
>>the suburb of Canning Vale in the southern suburbs, we had quite a bit of
>>lightning and thunder with some rain here in the northern suburbs about an
>>hour ago.
>>
>>A Severe thunderstorm is out for most of the south west.
>
>About an hour ago in Wembley Downs we had a lot of hail and lightning and
>then got 5-10 minutes of hail of about 2cm diameter, which is bigger than I
>personally have seen before in Wembley Downs. I took a couple of pics and
>will develop them in the next few days. Funniest thing was all the car
>alarms going off.
>
>Currently I'm at Uni in Nedlands, and we have conistent thunder, some
>lightning and drenching rain.
>
>Tom Johnstone
>University of WA
>
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018
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 00:37:46 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP supercells [was:Dry Line (was More
articles??)]
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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HP category is a catch all. The ways of classifying HP and Classics are
subjective. There are virtually no objective criteria. I have seen at
least two storms that may have a feature that may allow for objective
identification, if indeed, these are sufficiently different to establish a
class of their own. I remain to be convinced. LPs are, in fact,
sufficiently different to establish that class. IMHO
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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019
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Tropical Low
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 15:25:47 +0930
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Howdy all. After Laurier post re: TC's galore, I have been watching the models
so see what he was talking about. The models did have a Low form in Gulf then
move NW - W before instensifying off the North Coast of NT.
Now the BOm have released this:
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 1:23 pm CST Friday 14 JANUARY 2000
TROPICAL LOW in northeast Gulf of Carpentaria
Location........near 11S 141E
........i.e.about 110 nautical miles [200 km] NNW of Weipa
Central pressure: 1002 hPa
Recent movement : slow moving
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Next 24h : low
24-48 h : low
48-72 h : moderate
NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probabilty of tropical
cyclone development within each 24 hour period...
LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20% - 40% HIGH = 50% or more.
[REMARKS ]
Low is weak with exact position difficult to discern. Most likely movement is a
slowly west-northwest over the next few days.
So its wait & see now.
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020
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
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Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 16:56:47 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flooding in NE NSW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Michael,
Looks like we killed you there...
Date Rainfall
Saturday, 1 January 2000 0.0
Sunday, 2 January 2000 R 0.2
Monday, 3 January 2000 3.6
Tuesday, 4 January 2000 0.0
Wednesday, 5 January 2000 0.0
Thursday, 6 January 2000 0.0
Friday, 7 January 2000 0.0
Saturday, 8 January 2000 R0.6
Sunday, 9 January 2000 TRR
Monday, 10 January 2000 0.0
Tuesday, 11 January 2000 0.0
Wednesday, 12 January 2000 4.0
Thursday, 13 January 2000 6.2
Friday, 14 January 2000 3.2
Anyway, it seems the unsettled weather is going to settle in Sydney. During
the afternoon we have had large cumulus beginning to grow. Some have
produced local showers but I have noticed they are beginning to glaciate!!
Tomorrow according to the models, it seems we are going to have an unstable
airstream and possible storms with rain or even heavy falls at times. We
will see what comes of it. Storms coming from the E are good news for
Schofields and the western suburbs.
Jimmy Deguara
At 15:36 14/01/00 +1100, you wrote:
>...and Mt Warrigal
>
>.01 .01 .01
>
>seem to score a 10 second shower in the small hours of the past few
>mornings, but nothing but sunshine during the day.
>
>Michael T
>
>
>
> > Ballina 24 35 47
> > Ballina AP 32 34 53
> > Cape Byron 24 15 56
> > Casino 13 24 27
> > Evans Head AWS 104 60 97
> > Grafton 3 8 10
> > Kyogle 27 63
> > Lismore 9 73 119
> > Mullumbimby 72 118
> > Murwillumbah 4 23 45
> > Whiporie 23
> > Woodburn 48 88
> > Yamba 14 46 17
> >
> > (from me:)
> > Wollongbar 32 28 171
> > McLeans Ridges 37 36 153
> >
> > regards, Michael
> >
> >
> > At 09:46 14/01/2000 +1100, you wrote:
> > >Michael
> > >Is it Wilson River or Wilsons River? The BoM seem to refer to it as both
>in
> > >their warnings. Our Australian Atlas has it as Wilson River.
> > >, MH
> >
> >
> > __________________________________________________________
> > Message sent by MyMail http://www.mymail.com.au/
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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021
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 17:30:15 +1100
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flooding in NE NSW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I hope so..here the monthly rainfall so far is only 20% of the monthly
average. The BoM says showers clearing tomorrow...
Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
> Hi Michael,
>
> Looks like we killed you there...
> Date Rainfall
> Saturday, 1 January 2000 0.0
> Sunday, 2 January 2000 R 0.2
> Monday, 3 January 2000 3.6
> Tuesday, 4 January 2000 0.0
> Wednesday, 5 January 2000 0.0
> Thursday, 6 January 2000 0.0
> Friday, 7 January 2000 0.0
> Saturday, 8 January 2000 R0.6
> Sunday, 9 January 2000 TRR
> Monday, 10 January 2000 0.0
> Tuesday, 11 January 2000 0.0
> Wednesday, 12 January 2000 4.0
> Thursday, 13 January 2000 6.2
> Friday, 14 January 2000 3.2
>
> Anyway, it seems the unsettled weather is going to settle in Sydney. During
> the afternoon we have had large cumulus beginning to grow. Some have
> produced local showers but I have noticed they are beginning to glaciate!!
>
> Tomorrow according to the models, it seems we are going to have an unstable
> airstream and possible storms with rain or even heavy falls at times. We
> will see what comes of it. Storms coming from the E are good news for
> Schofields and the western suburbs.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 15:36 14/01/00 +1100, you wrote:
> >...and Mt Warrigal
> >
> >.01 .01 .01
> >
> >seem to score a 10 second shower in the small hours of the past few
> >mornings, but nothing but sunshine during the day.
> >
> >Michael T
> >
> >
> >
> > > Ballina 24 35 47
> > > Ballina AP 32 34 53
> > > Cape Byron 24 15 56
> > > Casino 13 24 27
> > > Evans Head AWS 104 60 97
> > > Grafton 3 8 10
> > > Kyogle 27 63
> > > Lismore 9 73 119
> > > Mullumbimby 72 118
> > > Murwillumbah 4 23 45
> > > Whiporie 23
> > > Woodburn 48 88
> > > Yamba 14 46 17
> > >
> > > (from me:)
> > > Wollongbar 32 28 171
> > > McLeans Ridges 37 36 153
> > >
> > > regards, Michael
> > >
> > >
> > > At 09:46 14/01/2000 +1100, you wrote:
> > > >Michael
> > > >Is it Wilson River or Wilsons River? The BoM seem to refer to it as both
> >in
> > > >their warnings. Our Australian Atlas has it as Wilson River.
> > > >, MH
> > >
> > >
> > > __________________________________________________________
> > > Message sent by MyMail http://www.mymail.com.au/
> > >
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> > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > > message.
> > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >
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022
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Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 19:41:49 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flooding in NE NSW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Oh well, looks as if the next model run changed its mind so I think the
Bureau may be correct. The cloud popped so quickly and now it seems to have
lost a lot of intensity.
Jimmy Deguara
At 16:56 14/01/00 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi Michael,
>
>Looks like we killed you there...
>Date Rainfall
>Saturday, 1 January 2000 0.0
>Sunday, 2 January 2000 R 0.2
>Monday, 3 January 2000 3.6
>Tuesday, 4 January 2000 0.0
>Wednesday, 5 January 2000 0.0
>Thursday, 6 January 2000 0.0
>Friday, 7 January 2000 0.0
>Saturday, 8 January 2000 R0.6
>Sunday, 9 January 2000 TRR
>Monday, 10 January 2000 0.0
>Tuesday, 11 January 2000 0.0
>Wednesday, 12 January 2000 4.0
>Thursday, 13 January 2000 6.2
>Friday, 14 January 2000 3.2
>
>Anyway, it seems the unsettled weather is going to settle in Sydney.
>During the afternoon we have had large cumulus beginning to grow. Some
>have produced local showers but I have noticed they are beginning to glaciate!!
>
>Tomorrow according to the models, it seems we are going to have an
>unstable airstream and possible storms with rain or even heavy falls at
>times. We will see what comes of it. Storms coming from the E are good
>news for Schofields and the western suburbs.
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
>At 15:36 14/01/00 +1100, you wrote:
>>...and Mt Warrigal
>>
>>.01 .01 .01
>>
>>seem to score a 10 second shower in the small hours of the past few
>>mornings, but nothing but sunshine during the day.
>>
>>Michael T
>>
>>
>>
>> > Ballina 24 35 47
>> > Ballina AP 32 34 53
>> > Cape Byron 24 15 56
>> > Casino 13 24 27
>> > Evans Head AWS 104 60 97
>> > Grafton 3 8 10
>> > Kyogle 27 63
>> > Lismore 9 73 119
>> > Mullumbimby 72 118
>> > Murwillumbah 4 23 45
>> > Whiporie 23
>> > Woodburn 48 88
>> > Yamba 14 46 17
>> >
>> > (from me:)
>> > Wollongbar 32 28 171
>> > McLeans Ridges 37 36 153
>> >
>> > regards, Michael
>> >
>> >
>> > At 09:46 14/01/2000 +1100, you wrote:
>> > >Michael
>> > >Is it Wilson River or Wilsons River? The BoM seem to refer to it as both
>>in
>> > >their warnings. Our Australian Atlas has it as Wilson River.
>> > >, MH
>> >
>> >
>> > __________________________________________________________
>> > Message sent by MyMail http://www.mymail.com.au/
>> >
>> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>> > message.
>> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>> >
>>
>>
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023
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 09:40:34 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon Ltd. - note all times in GMT
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Subject: aus-wx: MSC website
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list -
MSC website back online 0940z.
Les(UK)
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Les Crossan
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W
UK Storm Chaser
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)- Victoria
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
http://www.torro.org.uk/
Email: les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM)
ICQ: 17296776
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
| Document: 000114.htm
Updated: 19 January 2000 |
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