From                                           Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 "Paul Mossman" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]          Tc?
002 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           And you thought Twister was bad?
003 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Tc?
004 "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au]      Tc?
005 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]     And you thought Twister was bad?
006 "Paul Mossman" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]          Low getting organised?
007 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Tc?
008 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]    And you thought Twister was bad?
009 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)          WA storms of 14/1/00
010 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]           And you thought Twister was bad?
011 Jonty Hall [jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au]      And you thought Twister was bad?
012 steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]             forecast loop

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: "Paul Mossman" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2000 23:43:01 +0930
Subject: aus-wx: Tc?
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Howdy all.

Most interesting situation - nearly all models agree that some sort 
of Low develops within the next 48 - 72 hours possibly into a TC.

NOGAPS, MRF  & AVN at 48 - 120hrs show it hitting or passing 
extremely close to Darwin & surrounding coast.

In fact MRF has the 100mm per 24 hrs over this area for 2 + days. 
Looks like the action may start as early as Monday - but most 
defin something by Tuesday.

Now I know that all models have trouble with the Tropics - but 
NOGAPS has had that Low there for nearly a week now - so 
something must be stirring.

Anway - rang the BOM - they have seen what the models think - 
there own product - LAPS?? i think - shows the Low doing an 
almost Thelma like track - that is heading NW from Gove to almost 
North of Darwin then slipping southwards and then hugging coast 
SW ward.

Conditions couldnt be any riper - the water here is hot due to very 
little monsoonal activity so far - plenty of latent heat/energy waiting 
to be released. That combined with a "surge" in the "flows" that 
Jonty was telling the list about may just cause something to 
happen.

Wait & see................

Paul.

Ps - nice shower here today - 20mm falling in about 13mins. 
Paul Mossman
Civil Registrar
Local Court Darwin
Northern Territory
Mail to: Paul.Mossman at nt.gov.au
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002
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2000 20:28:41 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon  Ltd. - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; U)
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: And you thought Twister was bad?
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Anthony Cornelius wrote:

> A few of the more obvious errors were:
>
>

....  cat 5 hurricane heading for Los Angeles? Presumably across the USA. Has
this ever happened?  Has LA ever had any TC's? Les Lemon, HELP!

>
> - Global warming does not result in the "El Nino Effect"

Wow. Deeply scary. Hurricanes (atlantic) El Nino (pacific) Excuse me whilst I
pull the spinters out of my fingers... (:

> - in fact, even
> if they did say "greenhouse effect," it'd still be wrong!  As the
> greenhouse effect results in global warming...not the opposite!

Eh??? If it wasn't for the greenhouse effect we'd bake during the daytime and
freeze at night... the jury is still out on this one. It's only twenty - odd
years ago that they were all predicting that we'd freeze to death then get
buried under 40 feet of ice... due to the next Ice age!

Planet Earth has always had a greenhouse effect, it's not due to recent carbon
dioxide from factories, methane from McDonalds cow ranches in Brazil or
whatever is the current trendy "greenhouse gas".

>
> - Having Luke Perry star the main role...isn't it obvious he simply
> cannot act!?

Aha, we're heading for a premier on UK teresstrial TV sponsored by Walkers
Crisps, Toyota or Panasonic then ):

Les



------------------------------------------------------
Les Crossan
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W
UK Storm Chaser
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)- Victoria
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
http://www.torro.org.uk/
Email: les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM)
ICQ: 17296776
------------------------------------------------------

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003
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tc?
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2000 10:34:51 +1100
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I have been thinking of the lack of Monsoonal activity too ! Even in
Queensland it is rather benign, Townsville and Cairns have been getting more
sunny and fine days that you would expect. Coral Sea TC's - where are they,
so much for La Nina years being a TC bonanza, I am starting to wonder.

Michael



> Conditions couldnt be any riper - the water here is hot due to very
> little monsoonal activity so far - plenty of latent heat/energy waiting
> to be released. That combined with a "surge" in the "flows" that
> Jonty was telling the list about may just cause something to
> happen.
>



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004
From: "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tc?
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2000 11:04:47 +1000
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Hi Michael and all

Early days yet for cyclones !

Not many around Proserpine really looking forward to a cyclone, believe me.
I've experienced enough to last me. Exciting they may be, but destructive
they most certainly are !

As for the monsoon trough - it rarely gets down to even Innisfail (usually
just the tip of the Cape), so we do not expect typical monsoon weather here.
The North Coast's  "wet" season is more "cyclonic" than monsoonal, unlike
what Paul is experiencing in Darwin.

Sometimes the trough is dragged south by a low/cyclone, but our main "bread
and butter" rain comes from the SE trades which are more persistent and
moisture producing in a La Nina year. Rain so far Nov 194 (median 54)
December 211 (140) Jan to date 87 (305). As the locals will tell, it is not
unusual to have a dry period in January, even though monthly figures may
show high figures. Not uncommonly, Jan rain comes in big lots in short
times.

As for La Nina and cyclones - it is only an increased probability. Take
98/99 La Nina for instance - many cyclones in the Coral Sea, but most moving
away from the coast.

-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Thompson [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Sunday, 16 January 2000 9:38 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tc?


>I have been thinking of the lack of Monsoonal activity too ! Even in
>Queensland it is rather benign, Townsville and Cairns have been getting
more
>sunny and fine days that you would expect. Coral Sea TC's - where are they,
>so much for La Nina years being a TC bonanza, I am starting to wonder.
>
>Michael


>
>> Conditions couldnt be any riper - the water here is hot due to very
>> little monsoonal activity so far - plenty of latent heat/energy waiting
>> to be released. That combined with a "surge" in the "flows" that
>> Jonty was telling the list about may just cause something to
>> happen.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

005
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2000 00:40:27 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: And you thought Twister was bad?
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Les, Anthony and all:
> 
> > A few of the more obvious errors were:
> >
> >
> 
> ....  cat 5 hurricane heading for Los Angeles? Presumably across the USA.
Has
> this ever happened?  Has LA ever had any TC's? Les Lemon, HELP!
> 

Not to my knowledge, Les.  But am not positive on this.  It is very
possible that rain from remnants of a TC might have at one point in the
past actually affected LA but I just am not sure.

> >
> > - Global warming does not result in the "El Nino Effect"

It would appear that warming is occurring but we can not know if it is
anthropomorphic or is a natural climate swing.  Nor can we tell how long
this might continue to progress.  Besides, as I have commented before,
should that be the case, we should not worry about plant or animal
extinction or adverse affects on the ecosystem.  Supposedly, it is
pressures such as this that spur on evolution.  Somehow living organisms
are supposed to have the ability to acquire, spontaneously, large
quantities of information concerning the physics of cooling or whatever
they require in order to do their own cooling system design and adaptation
to the changing conditions.  I just wish entropy did not affect everything
else and that information and autoorganization of matter would would occur
spontaneously with my car, my house, and all else in the material world. 
Unfortunately it does not.  It required literally hundreds of intelligent
men and woman and considerable knowledge to design NEXRAD.  And even then
it breaks down!!  LOL

Makes me wonder......[S]

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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006
From: "Paul Mossman" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2000 17:49:40 +0930
Subject: aus-wx: Low getting organised?
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Howdy all.

Day long obs. of Darwin Broad Scale radar now shows some 
increasing rotation - a possible effect of the Low starting to deepen. 

Models are still adamant that there will be some type of Low that 
deepens - most still argue either North of Darwin or SW of Darwin 
towards WA Coastline.

BOM still have moderate chance at 48 - 72 hour mark - where most 
models have the Low closer to here.

Hopefully it will either kick in as a TC or kick the monsoon in the 
butt - the obv. lack of Monsoonal activity is starting to worry locals -
 as allot depends upon it (ie agriculture, water supply, and a 
cooling relief for a period!)

Paul at Darwin with fingers crossed like a bad case of arthritis.!!
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007
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tc?
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2000 19:35:53 +1100
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Thanks Bill, it is always welcome to hear what the weather is like
elsewhere.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: W.A. (Bill) Webb [billwebb at tpgi.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Sunday, 16 January 2000 12:04
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tc?


> Hi Michael and all
>
> Early days yet for cyclones !
>
> Not many around Proserpine really looking forward to a cyclone, believe
me.
> I've experienced enough to last me. Exciting they may be, but destructive
> they most certainly are !
>
> As for the monsoon trough - it rarely gets down to even Innisfail (usually
> just the tip of the Cape), so we do not expect typical monsoon weather
here.
> The North Coast's  "wet" season is more "cyclonic" than monsoonal, unlike
> what Paul is experiencing in Darwin.
>
> Sometimes the trough is dragged south by a low/cyclone, but our main
"bread
> and butter" rain comes from the SE trades which are more persistent and
> moisture producing in a La Nina year. Rain so far Nov 194 (median 54)
> December 211 (140) Jan to date 87 (305). As the locals will tell, it is
not
> unusual to have a dry period in January, even though monthly figures may
> show high figures. Not uncommonly, Jan rain comes in big lots in short
> times.
>
> As for La Nina and cyclones - it is only an increased probability. Take
> 98/99 La Nina for instance - many cyclones in the Coral Sea, but most
moving
> away from the coast.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael Thompson 
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
> Date: Sunday, 16 January 2000 9:38 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tc?
>
>
> >I have been thinking of the lack of Monsoonal activity too ! Even in
> >Queensland it is rather benign, Townsville and Cairns have been getting
> more
> >sunny and fine days that you would expect. Coral Sea TC's - where are
they,
> >so much for La Nina years being a TC bonanza, I am starting to wonder.
> >
> >Michael
>
>
> >
> >> Conditions couldnt be any riper - the water here is hot due to very
> >> little monsoonal activity so far - plenty of latent heat/energy waiting
> >> to be released. That combined with a "surge" in the "flows" that
> >> Jonty was telling the list about may just cause something to
> >> happen.
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

008
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2000 19:06:43 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: And you thought Twister was bad?
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Hi Les, Les and all 

"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
> 
> Les, Anthony and all:

> > ....  cat 5 hurricane heading for Los Angeles? Presumably across the USA.
> Has
> > this ever happened?  Has LA ever had any TC's? Les Lemon, HELP!
> >
> 
> Not to my knowledge, Les.  But am not positive on this.  It is very
> possible that rain from remnants of a TC might have at one point in the
> past actually affected LA but I just am not sure.


I have a hunch this movie was sparked off by Hurricane Linda in
September, 1997  This from memory, was one of the most powerful eastern
pacific hurricanes on record, it was Cat 5 with winds of 160kn (I can't
recall if this is sustained or gusts, but I think it's sustained...)

The hurricane was able to form from an extremely warm tongue of water
that was attributed to El Nino.  I believe SST's were around 30-31C. 
Interestingly though, the waters off Los Angeles were quite cold, 23-24C
from memory?  Mind you, the storm stayed well away from the US mainland
at max intensity (which ties into the movie as it originally formed off
Mexico like Linda did).  The other piece of 'evidence' is that the
hurricane in the movie is called "Hurricane Elizabeth" which would
possibly tie into "Linda" if you use your imgination :-)
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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009
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: WA storms of 14/1/00
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2000 10:00:22 GMT
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I've written up this event at
http://ausweather.simplenet.com/news/news0001.html#14

Some of the 24 hour rainfall totals to 9am on the 15th seem likely to
break previous records, and are quite amazing for southern WA in
mid-summer. Balladonia's reported 80.6mm, if true, is an all-time
record for the station, which has about 75 years complete record
dating back to 1891. Given some of the other falls in southeastern WA
(Truro, south of Lake King, 82mm, Coolgardie PO 72.8, Hopetoun North,
south of Ravensthorpe, 71), and looking at the satpix, the report
seems credible.

-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://ausweather.simplenet.com
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010
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2000 10:08:43 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon  Ltd. - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: And you thought Twister was bad?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:

> Les, Anthony and all:
> >
> > > A few of the more obvious errors were:
> > >
> > >
> >
> > ....  cat 5 hurricane heading for Los Angeles? Presumably across the USA.
> Has
> > this ever happened?  Has LA ever had any TC's? Les Lemon, HELP!
> >

I think that the plot of this movie has lost the plot.... anthony presumably
this hurricane was spawned in the PACIFIC not the ATLANTIC...... that makes it
a cyclone then (:

Did LA get it in the end or did the "good guys" win out, perhaps by puncturing
it, cutting it from a chart and pasting it over Antartica,  dropping a
thermonuclear device inside it, blowing on it, etc????

Just curious... Les

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011
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2000 23:29:51 -1100 (DST)
From: Jonty Hall [jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: And you thought Twister was bad?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Folks,

Actually Les (UK) TCs that form east of 140W in the Eastern North Pacific
are named (if they become strong enough of course) by the National
Hurricane Centre in Miami FL, and are known as hurricanes. Storms forming
in the north Pacific between 140W and 180 are named by the Central
Pacific Hurricane Centre in Honolulu and are known as typhoons (actually,
very few do form in this area). To the west of 180 it used to become a
bit of a shmoz as to who names them, but they are all known as typhoons.
However, on 1 January 2000, a new international list of names for use in
the Western North Pacific was formed, with all of the countries in the
region each contributing 5 names. This will lead to some rather colourful
and diverse names for typhoons in this area in the years to come!
Unfortunately, it also means that there will be no alphabetical
progression of names as there is in all the other basins that use names
(the north Indian does not utilise names at all). 

You can see all the name lists for all the basins listed at

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.html

Cheers,

Jonty.

____________________________________________________________________

Jonty Hall                   jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au

CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
Monash University
Wellington Road,
Clayton, Vic   3168

Ph +61 3 9905 9684

____________________________________________________________________

On Sun, 16 Jan 2000, Les Crossan wrote:

> 
> 
> "Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
> 
> > Les, Anthony and all:
> > >
> > > > A few of the more obvious errors were:
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > ....  cat 5 hurricane heading for Los Angeles? Presumably across the USA.
> > Has
> > > this ever happened?  Has LA ever had any TC's? Les Lemon, HELP!
> > >
> 
> I think that the plot of this movie has lost the plot.... anthony presumably
> this hurricane was spawned in the PACIFIC not the ATLANTIC...... that makes it
> a cyclone then (:
> 
> Did LA get it in the end or did the "good guys" win out, perhaps by puncturing
> it, cutting it from a chart and pasting it over Antartica,  dropping a
> thermonuclear device inside it, blowing on it, etc????
> 
> Just curious... Les
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 

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012
X-Sender: bayns at mail.broad.net.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2000 22:49:45 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: forecast loop
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

hey all
put this together this arvo
its approx 500k but ya can see all the models for each 12 hr interval, and compare.

http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/loop.gif

cyase

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