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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Tuesday, 18 January 2000 |
From Subject
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001 "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au] It's 15 years since...
002 steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au] lightning photo!!!
003 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Adelaide's midnight temperature
004 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] It's 15 years since...
005 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] It's 15 years since...
006 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Savage Monsoonal Storm
007 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Good snow towns for chases...
008 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Snow stuff...
009 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Re: More Snow Thoughts...
010 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Good snow towns for chases...
011 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Good snow towns for chases...
012 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Good snow towns for chases...
013 "David Croan" [wxbustchase at hotmail.com] and almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years since...)
014 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Good snow towns for chases...
015 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] and almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years since...)
016 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] and almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years since...)
017 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] and almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years since...)
018 Dion Williams [onamission at start.com.au] Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #446
019 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Snow Storms: was "Good snow towns for chases..."
020 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Parcel Potential: Was "Overshooting the EL"
021 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] and almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years
022 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] and almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years
023 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] The prolonged warm spell at Adelaide, and some connections w
024 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] WA storms of 14/1/00
025 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Savage Monsoonal Storm
026 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. The prolonged warm spell at Adelaide, and some connections
027 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] Savage Monsoonal Storm
028 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Adelaide's midnight temperature
029 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] ASWA Minor Flood Warning Northern NSW
030 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Good snow towns for chases...
031 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Savage Monsoonal Storm
032 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Savage Monsoonal Storm
033 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] Storm types (was almost 9 years since...)
034 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] Savage Monsoonal Storm
035 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Jimmy's version... almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 yea
036 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] Savage Monsoonal Storm
037 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com] ASWA Minor Flood Warning cum advice
038 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com] ASWA Minor Flood Warning Northern NSW
039 "Paul Mossman" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Savage Monsoonal Storm
040 "Paul Mossman" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] ASWA Minor Flood Warning Northern NSW
041 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] I am back from storm chase
042 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Storm types
043 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Jimmy's version... almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 yea
044 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] I am back from storm chase
045 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Good snow towns for chases...
046 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Good snow towns for chases...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au]
To: "aus-wx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: It's 15 years since...
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2000 23:01:52 +1000
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Hi all
For those who don't know, tomorrow (January 18) will be the 15th anniversary
of the great Brisbane Hailstorm. It occurred on a Friday afternoon as
people drove home from work. Widespread Cricket ball hail and winds
recorded up to 185 km/h at the Brisbane Airport (100kn) and 145km/h in the
CBD (78kn) decimated many cars and buildings. Many were injured as well.
Try to imagine what sort of damage will occur when hail that big is blown
horizontally - A very scary thought. I have a report here
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm/reports/jan18_85.html. It has
been said that if this storm moved through the same area that the Sydney
April 1999 storm moved through, much more damage would have been caused.
Brisbane was lucky nobody was killed in this extreme severe weather event.
By the way, I was at work during today's (Monday) storms but nothing of note
happened - the storms had flattened out somewhat over the coast.
Nevertheless, at 9pm 11 000 homes were still blacked out over the Gold Coast
and far southern suburbs of Brisbane after trees/tree branches were blown
onto powerlines. No major damage though. However, by the looks of the
radar earlier, I'd say there was some hail damage over the Border during the
afternoon sometime.
Regards
James Chambers
The Brisbane & SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html
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002
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Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 00:35:27 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: lightning photo!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hey everybody,
going over my camera tape i left runningafter going to work. it only lasted a couple of minutes duw to a flat battery, but in that time, it caught this nice CC:)
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1701001.jpg
cyas
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003
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Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2000 23:05:04 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Adelaide's midnight temperature
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Amazing temperatures in Adelaide tonight, at 12:00 midnight CDT it was
34.6C, and at 1am CDT it was still 34.2C.
Adelaide for some reason has warmer nights after hot days than the other
southern capital cities, but even still, thats extreme heat for that time
of night.
Adelaide's highest minimum on record is 33.5C on the 24/1/1982, compare
that to Melbourne's highest of 30.3 on 1/2/1902 and Perth's highest of 29.3
on the 3/2/1962 (29.3 also occurred on 2 other nights).
The Adelaide BoM is going for a min of 25 and a max of 33, so they expect
the change to come though before the 9am cut off time.
Jacob
At 12:35 18/01/00 +1000, you wrote:
>hey everybody,
>going over my camera tape i left runningafter going to work. it only lasted
>a couple of minutes duw to a flat battery, but in that time, it caught this
>nice CC:)
>
>http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1701001.jpg
>
>cyas
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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004
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: It's 15 years since...
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 01:48:55 +1000
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Hi James,
Please note, link to "here" in your report (1st hand account) is
dysfunctional.
Being an "old fart", I remember this storm well. I observed it from the top
of 80 Jephson St. Toowong as it approached (Lots of Green and Purple, with
one spectacular CG in Toowong originating from a purple protuberance near
the gust front), and then huddled in the doorway downstairs watching the
cricket ball hail coming in almost horizontally and smashing up the cars in
Woollies car park. But most impressive was the torrential downpour which
ensued. I recall this being reported on the evening news as peaking at 50mm
in 10 mins. You know how rain produces a halo of spray around objects?
Well this rain caused a spray halo of around 2m. To this day I have not
seen anything to remotely compare with it. A hail stone from this storm
managed to pierce the metal cladding covering the tank on my Solar Hart hot
water system at Jindalee.
John.
>snip
Hi all
For those who don't know, tomorrow (January 18) will be the 15th anniversary
of the great Brisbane Hailstorm. It occurred on a Friday afternoon as
people drove home from work. Widespread Cricket ball hail and winds
recorded up to 185 km/h at the Brisbane Airport (100kn) and 145km/h in the
CBD (78kn) decimated many cars and buildings. Many were injured as well.
Try to imagine what sort of damage will occur when hail that big is blown
horizontally - A very scary thought. I have a report here
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm/reports/jan18_85.html. It has
been said that if this storm moved through the same area that the Sydney
April 1999 storm moved through, much more damage would have been caused.
Brisbane was lucky nobody was killed in this extreme severe weather event.
By the way, I was at work during today's (Monday) storms but nothing of note
happened - the storms had flattened out somewhat over the coast.
Nevertheless, at 9pm 11 000 homes were still blacked out over the Gold Coast
and far southern suburbs of Brisbane after trees/tree branches were blown
onto powerlines. No major damage though. However, by the looks of the
radar earlier, I'd say there was some hail damage over the Border during the
afternoon sometime.
Regards
James Chambers
The Brisbane & SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html
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005
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 08:39:03 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: It's 15 years since...
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Hi John, Everyone..
I had trouble accessing the link as well - the australiansevereweather
server seems to be down.. the account of the 1985 Superstorm is also on
BSCH at the following URL:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/products/reports/december99/1985-superstorm.htm
John Woodbridge wrote:
>
> Hi James,
>
> Please note, link to "here" in your report (1st hand account) is
> dysfunctional.
>
> Being an "old fart", I remember this storm well. I observed it from the top
> of 80 Jephson St. Toowong as it approached (Lots of Green and Purple, with
> one spectacular CG in Toowong originating from a purple protuberance near
> the gust front), and then huddled in the doorway downstairs watching the
> cricket ball hail coming in almost horizontally and smashing up the cars in
> Woollies car park. But most impressive was the torrential downpour which
> ensued. I recall this being reported on the evening news as peaking at 50mm
> in 10 mins. You know how rain produces a halo of spray around objects?
> Well this rain caused a spray halo of around 2m. To this day I have not
> seen anything to remotely compare with it. A hail stone from this storm
> managed to pierce the metal cladding covering the tank on my Solar Hart hot
> water system at Jindalee.
>
> John.
> >snip
>
> Hi all
>
> For those who don't know, tomorrow (January 18) will be the 15th anniversary
> of the great Brisbane Hailstorm. It occurred on a Friday afternoon as
> people drove home from work. Widespread Cricket ball hail and winds
> recorded up to 185 km/h at the Brisbane Airport (100kn) and 145km/h in the
> CBD (78kn) decimated many cars and buildings. Many were injured as well.
> Try to imagine what sort of damage will occur when hail that big is blown
> horizontally - A very scary thought. I have a report here
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm/reports/jan18_85.html. It has
> been said that if this storm moved through the same area that the Sydney
> April 1999 storm moved through, much more damage would have been caused.
> Brisbane was lucky nobody was killed in this extreme severe weather event.
>
> By the way, I was at work during today's (Monday) storms but nothing of note
> happened - the storms had flattened out somewhat over the coast.
> Nevertheless, at 9pm 11 000 homes were still blacked out over the Gold Coast
> and far southern suburbs of Brisbane after trees/tree branches were blown
> onto powerlines. No major damage though. However, by the looks of the
> radar earlier, I'd say there was some hail damage over the Border during the
> afternoon sometime.
>
> Regards
>
> James Chambers
> The Brisbane & SE Qld Storm Site
> http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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006
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Savage Monsoonal Storm
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 08:26:42 +0930
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Hi all.
Savage monsoonal storm last night. Formed on the ranges of Kakadu near Oenpelli
/ Jabairu, then slung westwards early evening.
Had 3 stages to this multicellular babe - First stage was a great chunky squall
line, ragged shelf cloud and scud cloud moving at great rate of knots. Brief
wind increase then nothing,
I thought "typical". Then it seemed to re-organise itself on the seabreeze, and
a second squallline then developed and ragged through - cgs smashing down all
over the place, cc lightning that lit the whole sky like day, and amazing
lightning that went straight up in the sky.
Lightning lasted well over 2 hours!!!! With thunder so loud and forcible that
it actually moved you physically. 75% of Darwin was blacked out for a period of
time last night - its a pity that BOM don't have some near-real time GPAT
lightning data available :(
Then the rain swathed through - you could actually here it coming - driven
along by the downdrafts. Wasn't as heavy as the storm of the 9.1.00 - but it
was heavy enough to make my street look like a Tropical River - and watch as a
wheely bin floated by!!
32.4mm rain received from the storm - most in an intense fall in a period about
15 mins - then steady light rain for an hour.
I have noted that the problems with storms here is that because of the high
humidity/temps when a decent storm arrives the resulting cooler downdrafts
causes condensation to almost ground level producing a mist like fog etc -
hiding all of the nice parts of the storm!!
Anyway - more gusty storms are forecast for rest of week! More like build-up
season then monsoon!
Paul.
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007
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 08:03:02 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good snow towns for chases...
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Thanks Paul,
What is the condition of the road like? Is it gravel near the top or
mostly bitumen?
Lindsay Pearce.
>
> Also the Scone Road through Barrington Tops at 1500m is good for a snow chase -
> but only if you have a 4wd in periods of heavy snow.
> Road is accessible either through Gloucester or Scone. I happened to be there
> in spring when a particularly vicious SE'ers storm hit causing snow to fall -
> and almost stranding me at the top in freezing conditions (being in a 2wd
> vehicle.)
>
> Paul.
>
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008
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 07:12:45 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Snow stuff...
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G'day Lyle,
Welcome to the list Lyle, I'm in NSW, specifically, The Central
Tablelands west of Sydney. My town is approaching 1100 metres and there
are areas not too far away approaching the 1400 metre mark. We can get
good snow at times, had a fall nearby last year of more than a foot on
the ground.
Purpose? Um, because I like snow . Would love to see your snow
pics, maybe email them to me, just a few maybe as I get a lot of mail.
You will find a few "Snowies" on this list and some great people
generally.
REgards,
Lindsay Pearce
Lyle Pakula wrote:
>
> G'day,
>
> I was wondering what the purpose of the chases you do in winter are for and
> which state you are in (sorry new to the list). I am an avid snow chaser and
> had very sucessfull trips last year (have some awesome photos from a snow
> storm in may).
>
> Cheers,
> Lyle
>
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009
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 07:48:16 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: More Snow Thoughts...
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Thanks Michael,
Great stuff and funny too. Come to think of it, a sense of humour is
needed when considering Aussie snow.
My best forecast last year was when I was standing in a foot of snow and
said,
(insert contrived country drawl) "Yeeeep, might get a bit of snow
today."
Lindsay P.
Michael Scollay wrote:
>
> Lindsay wrote:
> >
> > For Don, Laurier, Michael Scollay, Dr David and others in the know...
> >
> > I'm curious to know of the chances of those "Blocking Highs" eventuating
> > again like they did last winter...[snip]
>
> Sorry Lindsay. I don't issue forecasts of this nature until after
> the season:-) On a more serious note, watch the SST's more closely,
> particularly below 20S, west of WA, in the Tasman and to the south.
> There is a reasonable correllation between the passage of weather
> systems and the nature of the SST's. I've yet to decide in detail
> what is ideal for good snow and what is a disaster. Too much warm
> water in the Tasman can be really bad for snow. Too cold can create
> those "blocking highs". In-between is just about right. A strong
> La Ni�a or El Ni�o is also counter-productive. In-between again
> is just about right with a hint of La Ni�a. To much La Ni�a
> brings too much warm-moist air ahead of cold fronts bringing
> rain instead of snow. Too much El Ni�o is basically a drought.
> Of course, as in weather, there are some notable exceptions.
> All things considered equal, consider everything...
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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010
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 08:29:03 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good snow towns for chases...
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Couldn't agree more Michael. It's exciting seeing it fall outside the
traditional areas. One of the best times I had last year was pulling the
car over just before the descent into Jenolan Caves, (On the Mount
Trickett side) and reading the Sunday paper there whilst watching snow
fall in beautiful light winds. It was just gorgeous. Only lasted for
half an hour and say maybe an inch on the car roof, if that, but the
whole area was white, courtesy of that fall and and an earlier dusting.
The great thing up here (Being generally a marginal area for snow) is
that you can see from our lookouts (within walking distance of my home)
if the low cloud is covering/settling over Oberon way in winter. If its
sleeting/raining here and 3 or 4 degrees, there's a good chance of snow
out Oberon way. A lot of folk get disappointed when they come to look
for snow from Sydney, expecting to see huge drifts everywhere. It's not
like that here, well, not often anyway. But out Oberon way? Oh yes, lots
of it. Unless you live here, its hard to get to Oberon at the right time
though.
Lindsay P.
Michael Thompson wrote:
>
> Because it's there. Actually snow is that rare at low altitudes in Australia
> that it is a frill to score snow outside the traditional areas. Add to that
> the fact that I have seen snow perhaps a dozen times, but only twice seen
> snow develop from rain ( and no snow on the ground ).
> Michael
>
> > I was wondering what the purpose of the chases you do in winter are for
> and
> > which state you are in (sorry new to the list). I am an avid snow chaser
> and
> > had very sucessfull trips last year (have some awesome photos from a snow
> > storm in may).
> >
>
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011
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 07:57:50 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good snow towns for chases...
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Thanks Blair,
I'll try and get a hold of the map you mentioned. If I remember
correctly (We were somewhat distracted by listening to Australian Crawl
at high volume during our holiday trip) the road is bitumen all the way
to Black Springs from Oberon.
Lindsay Pearce
> One would expect Black Springs to be a good place to go in a decent
> snowfall. I don't know the exact altitude - get hold of a 1:100000
> map if you get a chance. This would be the highest terrain accessible
> by road in the central Tablelands.
>
> Moving further afield, the Snowy Mountains are obviously a good place
> to go for snow. Outside them, from Canberra it's possible to get to
> 1500-1600 metres by road in the Brindabellas (although this road
> sometimes closes during snow), and the main Namadgi road reaches 1400.
> For south-easterly snow events (less so for south-westerly, as it's
> in a rainshadow for that direction) two roads south-east of Canberra
> reach 1200 metres or so - the Captains Flat-Jerangle-Bredbo road
> and the Braidwood-Cooma road. The Monaro Highway near Nimmitabel peaks
> at around 1100, as do routes south and east from Jindabyne.
>
> (All of the above, except the Monaro Highway, are partly gravel roads,
> which adds its own complications, especially in snow).
>
> In Victoria, there are many options north-east and east of Melbourne,
> although I'd expect that many of the roads are poor judging by the
> map (I've never been into the area east of Warburton).
> If a cold outbreak is intense enough (not last year!), a good route
> near Melbourne would be some variation on Ballan-Daylesford-Trentham-
> Woodend, which is at 600-800 metres for most of its length.
>
> Of course, if we ever see a repeat performance of 1900 or 1901, the
> Hume Highway will suffice :-)
>
> Blair Trewin
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012
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 07:18:15 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good snow towns for chases...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Great story Miguel, just great.
I'll file that story away in my snow file. Hey, my partner's dad is a
retired plant pathologist from the CSIRO in Sydney, John walker, he
still writes a fair bit, you might have heard of him.
Lindsay Pearce
Miguel de Salas wrote:
>
> At 10:55 AM 17-01-2000 +1100, you wrote:
> >G'day,
> >
> >I was wondering what the purpose of the chases you do in winter are for and
> >which state you are in (sorry new to the list). I am an avid snow chaser and
> >had very sucessfull trips last year (have some awesome photos from a snow
> >storm in may).
>
> Best snow storm I've ever seen was in December! I was out on a walk on the
> Western Arthur Range (Tasmania), and we had an extended forecast that
> probably saved our lives! The temperature was in the high 20s one moment,
> then it started to rain, the rain turned to hail and the hail to snow in a
> matter of approximately 30 minutes. It snowed solidly for 48 hours. If we
> hadn't been expecting the cold front to pass and stayed put in the
> campsite, the snow would have caught us several hours walk from the nearest
> place to pitch a tent. Needless to say visibility turned to 2-3 meters, and
> the wind made it almost impossible to walk! We also had some good lightning
> and thunder while it was hailing.
> The experience of seeing a lightning bolt (and hearing the clap of thunder)
> hit a tree barely 50 meters from the tent, inside a glacial cirque, and
> surrounded by 200m vertical walls which amplified the sound very many
> times, is something I won't ever forget!
>
> Miguel de Salas
>
> School of Plant Science,
> University of Tasmania,
> PO Box 252-55, Sandy Bay, Hobart
> Tasmania, Australia, 7001.
>
> mailto://mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au
>
> My Moths Page:
> http://members.xoom.com/migueldes/moths/moths.html
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013
X-Originating-IP: [203.0.101.2]
From: "David Croan" [wxbustchase at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: and almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years since...)
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 10:22:06 EST
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Sydney's version
James Chambers" wrote:
>Hi all
>
>For those who don't know, tomorrow (January 18) will be the 15th
>anniversary
>of the great Brisbane Hailstorm. It occurred on a Friday afternoon as
>people drove home from work. Widespread Cricket ball hail and winds
>recorded up to 185 km/h at the Brisbane Airport (100kn) and 145km/h in the
>CBD (78kn) decimated many cars and buildings.
It is also almost 9 nine years since what is widely regarded as the most
damaging thunderstorm in Australian history (21/1/91) - 164000 homes blacked
out, 7000 homes damaged, 20 of which were demolished afterwards. This is a
very similar storm to the Brisbane event (of course both were HP supercells)
in terms of hail size (7cm) and wind strength (considerably stronger in the
Sydney event) - damage surveys of this one indicated F2 bordering on F3
category straight-line winds (250km/h) in the Duffys forest area. I think
this is also the storm which is suspected to have dropped a tornado. This
occurred much earlier on when the storm was in the sticks near Camden on
Sydney's south west outskirts. As with the abovementioned Brisbane example
it is amazing that no one was killed by this violent storm.
A little more info and radar can be found here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/inside/sevwx/public/21jan91.shtml
and there was also a publication on the event titled 'The Storm'; I think it
is published by Kuringai council.
______________________________________________________
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014
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good snow towns for chases...
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 09:11:58 +0930
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Hi Lindsay!
The road is mainly gravel from about 25kms out of Gloucester to about the same
distance from Scone. On top of the Mountain it is quite good - especially the
higher area around Blue Pohl & the Dingo gate. However in the valley below (you
have to go there - its almost like a Western American plain before you start a
very rapid rise to the top of the mountain - rising some 1500m in the space of
4 kms if I remember) the raod is very poor in some parts and you have to watch
out for cows!!
Theres a great resort at the bottom of the mountain called Hookes Creek - its a
great base for a snow chase! (Only like 20 mins to the top of the mountain from
there).
Paul.
writer at lisp.com.au at SMTP at world.std.com on 18/01/2000 09:04:18 AM
Please respond to aussie-weather at world.std.com at SMTP
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good snow towns for chases...
Thanks Paul,
What is the condition of the road like? Is it gravel near the top or
mostly bitumen?
Lindsay Pearce.
>
> Also the Scone Road through Barrington Tops at 1500m is good for a snow chase
- > but only if you have a 4wd in periods of heavy snow.
> Road is accessible either through Gloucester or Scone. I happened to be there
> in spring when a particularly vicious SE'ers storm hit causing snow to fall -
> and almost stranding me at the top in freezing conditions (being in a 2wd
> vehicle.)
>
> Paul.
>
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015
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 09:48:37 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: and almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years since...)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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David Croan wrote:
>
> Sydney's version
damage surveys of this one indicated F2 bordering on F3
> category straight-line winds (250km/h) in the Duffys forest area. I think
> this is also the storm which is suspected to have dropped a tornado. This
> occurred much earlier on when the storm was in the sticks near Camden on
> Sydney's south west outskirts.
I've often been skeptical of this figure of 250km/h for straight line
winds, I've often wondered how this could occur from a microburst...I
know there are similar documentions around the world of similar damage,
but your DMAPE would have to be off the scale! None the less it's
possible, but one would think when you get to those windspeeds, a
tornado would be a much more likely event. Some tornadoes do exhibit
straight line wind damage though.
Any thoughts?
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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016
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: and almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years since...)
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 10:21:38 +1000
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Hi All,
Fortunately for your's truely I was living in Hornsby at the time of the
Sydney event, so got to observe and experience both storms :) :) and hence
my comparison:
The Sydney storm was green, very green. But the approach of the Brisbane
storm was far more impressive. The thick black anvil had already turned day
into night. There was a strong to very strong NE seabreeze inflow, the
entirety of which was convected at the gust front and nothing could compare
to the colours in the black, green and purple gust front almost to ground
level.
However, the Sydney storm produced much stronger winds for at least part of
it's path, while the Brisbane storm produced a higher precipitation rate and
decidely larger hail. The Sydney storm also produced a much more intense
display of lightning and appeared to produce a greater quantity hail, albeit
smaller, at least from my observations.
But some similarities also. In both storms there were copious CG's ahead of
the precipitation band. Both storms moved at 180 deg to a NE inflow,
producing very strong straight winds in this direction (SW winds). Both
storms were what I call "Type 1" complexes, where inflow/updraft is at the
leading edge of the storm with downdraft behind, i.e., not a conventional
supercell structure, massive though they were. Likewise the heaviest
precipitation, largest hail and strongest winds occurred with the onset of
the gust front.
Anyhow, both were extremely memorable events!
John.
>snip
It is also almost 9 nine years since what is widely regarded as the most
damaging thunderstorm in Australian history (21/1/91) - 164000 homes blacked
out, 7000 homes damaged, 20 of which were demolished afterwards. This is a
very similar storm to the Brisbane event (of course both were HP supercells)
in terms of hail size (7cm) and wind strength (considerably stronger in the
Sydney event) - damage surveys of this one indicated F2 bordering on F3
category straight-line winds (250km/h) in the Duffys forest area. I think
this is also the storm which is suspected to have dropped a tornado. This
occurred much earlier on when the storm was in the sticks near Camden on
Sydney's south west outskirts. As with the abovementioned Brisbane example
it is amazing that no one was killed by this violent storm.
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017
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: and almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years since...)
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 10:49:07 +1000
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Hi Anthony,
>From my observation post, there was no observable rotation in the Sydney
storm. There was however, the best rainfoot extending along the ground in
front of the preciptation band that I have ever seen. It was green in
colour and flowed almost horizontally, kicking up at the end. All very
consistent with a microburst. This was observed as the storm crossed the
Turramurra area. I suspect the worst damage, which occurred shortly
thereafter coincided with a massive updraft collapse.
However, the storm body was travelling at quite some speed, around 80km/hr
from memory, so this speed of forward motion must add to the downburst
outflow, which would only need to be 170km/hr to give the estimated
resultant.
Of course, given this speed of forward motion, a weak F0 tornado would also
manifest as straight line wind damage. Certainly some of the observed
damage is consistent with a tornado, i.e., a 1m diameter tree deposited root
ball first through the roof of a house.
However, I think it unlikely given the observed structure of the storm.
Regards,
John.
>snip
I've often been skeptical of this figure of 250km/h for straight line
winds, I've often wondered how this could occur from a microburst...I
know there are similar documentions around the world of similar damage,
but your DMAPE would have to be off the scale! None the less it's
possible, but one would think when you get to those windspeeds, a
tornado would be a much more likely event. Some tornadoes do exhibit
straight line wind damage though.
Any thoughts?
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018
From: Dion Williams [onamission at start.com.au]
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
X-Originating-IP: [61.8.0.112]
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 12:51:35 +1100
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Subject: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #446
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From: "David Croan" [wxbustchase at hotmail.com]
Subject: aus-wx: and almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years
since...)
Sydney's version
It is almost nine years since what is widely regarded as the most
damaging thunderstorm in Australian history (21/1/91) - 164000 homes
blacked
out, 7000 homes damaged, 20 of which were demolished afterwards. This
is a
very similar storm to the Brisbane event (of course both were HP
supercells)
in terms of hail size (7cm) and wind strength (considerably stronger
in the
Sydney event) - damage surveys of this one indicated F2 bordering on
F3
category straight-line winds (250km/h) in the Duffys forest area.
The survey mentioned above was done by the BOM and at a damage rating
of F2-F3 indicated wind gusts in the order of 220-250 km/h. They noted
however that the Fujita scale is based on US and not Australian
building codes. The other main piece of evidence was the Duffys Forest
transmission tower torn from one side of its moorings and left leaning
at 45 degrees. IIRC it was rated by the Electricity Commission as able
to withstand winds of 180km/h, indicating it encountered gusts well in
excess of that.
I think
this is also the storm which is suspected to have dropped a tornado.
This
occurred much earlier on when the storm was in the sticks near Camden
on
Sydney's south west outskirts.
The system was multicellular, the Turramurra-Fox Valley cell
regenerating on the outflow boundary of the earlier Camden cell. From
the BOM's damage survey no conclusive evidence of rotational damage
patterns was observed. Not to say that it didn't happen, it may not
have touched the ground however.
A little more info and radar can be found here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/inside/sevwx/public/21jan91.shtml
and there was also a publication on the event titled 'The Storm'; I
think it
is published by Kuringai council.
It's a bit "pulp fiction" in style but has some good photos and
eyewitness stories. It's hard to argue with accounts of 6cm hail
driven like bullets stripping the bark away from trees. A video is
also available from Ku-ring-gai Library at Gordon I believe. I'd
recommend the BOM's booklet report which they should still have copies
of.
I was at Macquarie Uni on the afternoon of the storm. The sky looked
like nothing I'd ever seen, this green-grey mass roaring overhead at
what must have been 80-100 km/h, incredible lightning and furious rain
and hail. Getting home to Thornleigh took three hours and the street
looked like a bomb hit it. That afternoon won't dim from memory
anytime soon.
Dion
__________________________________________________________________
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019
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 13:16:02 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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Subject: aus-wx: Snow Storms: was "Good snow towns for chases..."
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Miguel de Salas wrote Mon, 17 Jan 2000 12:02:36 +1100:
>
> Best snow storm I've ever seen was in December! I was out on a walk on the
> Western Arthur Range (Tasmania), and we had an extended forecast that
> probably saved our lives!...[snip]
Being an avid snow-watcher and keen skier, I've probably
spent a good portion of my life in the Snowy Mountains.
I've only experienced first-hand a few notable snow-storms
as the strategy is to only ski in the best weather, hence
my love of Snowy Mountains forecasting:-) Mind you, the
mountains can get some nasty blows ahead of strong cold
fronts, one that occured in August 1997 (?) damaged
hundreds of cars at Bullocks Flat by lifting rocks up
to orange size and hurling them over the car park one
really blowy night. This could have been a guster or
microburst of some sort as a severe thunderstorm was
thereabouts at the time. There was also a big blow last
year that I've written up...but as for real snow storms?
Six are most memorable to me in our Snowy Mountains,
all form the Perisher Valley region...
Late August 1980 - Got buried in my tent by 0.5-1m of
dry snow overnight near Perisher Valley. I only woke up
when the air got really stuffy. It's easy to see how one
can suffocate.
Late April 1982 - Early fall of 0.5-1m led to a T-bar
or two being opened early. Rest of season was a bust.
Late August 1984 - 1-1.5m in 2 days buried us in our
lodge in drifts over 4m at the doorway.
Late October 1993 - 0.5m overnight buried cars and
provided great snow-play for 3 days.
Early November 1994 - 0.5-1m over 24hrs buried cars
and required snow-plough access to Perisher after
2 days. People could drive from lodge on cleared
roads after 5 days.
Late August 1998 - High below Tasmania with ECL just
off Wollongong brought heavy +1m snow in calm conditions
over 3 days. This was the only fall in my experience
that mounted up on trees enough to break many branches
and sometimes collapse whole trees also.
There are many more in Australia that I've heard about.
However, there can be down-sides to snow. While in Nepal
in October, 1987 on our honeymoon (believe it or not!),
an early 0.5-1m snow-fall led to the deaths of two
German trekkers on the Annapurna Circuit who died when
they could not get down from Thorong La pass in time
to recover from altitude sickness fatal symptoms. Four
other mountaineers were stuck up on Annapurna itself
We never knew the fate of of these people. The snow
delayed our party's ascent by two days because of
avalanche danger but that was a good thing because it
led to better altitude adaption. The noise of avalanches
during the night was a major concern as you were never
sure just how far down the surrounding mountains the
avalanches would come into the villages of Pisang and
Malang. There are huge hills either side of the villages.
Over 5000m to the Annapurnas in the south and 3500m to
the mountains in the north. Later, we discovered some
seasonal shelters in the outskirts of these villages
that were smashed by the avalanches. The villages proper
seemed to be well located away from the avalanche tracks.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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020
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 14:18:25 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Parcel Potential: Was "Overshooting the EL"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
[snip heaps]
"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote on Fri, 24 Dec 1999 12:46:16 -0500:
>
> Remember the discussions of CAPE? Also remember that CAPE is largely due
> to the addition of latent heat. So, it is the initial conversion of gas to
> liquid where some latent heat is released and then the additional heat
> release when the phase changes once again from liquid to ice, that so much
> of the potential energy of CAPE .....the P stands for "potential", is
> released. That explains why so much of the CAPE is wrapped up in the water
> vapor....humidity of the air.
I've got to admit...a great discussion that I've just read
through during my lunch break. But...and there is always a
"but..." when my neurones get firing...I've been mucking
around with this radar image analysis program when it just
hit me...why the hell are we tracking the storm "after the
event" when surely, there must be an easier way of predicting
where that storm will go...If humidity is such a big factor
in fuelling severe storms, then why can't we estimate this
"fuel" as "parcel potential" and plot it in 3D? My crazy
imagination of this pictures the storm propagating in a way
and direction that is a function of its "fuel in", "waste
out" and environmental steering...like a giant vacuum-beast,
it goes in a way that is sustained only as long as the
function can keep it going. If the model were detailed
enough, it could factor-in other landform types such as
city and suburban landscapes etc. etc.
I've often wondered why so many storms "pick-up" as they
approach the north shore of Sydney from the SW and often
track one behind another. There must be something that
is driving the storm system this way...I can imagine
this vacuum-beast sucking its way across the suburban
landscape of SW and W Sydney. Bit of humidity fed in from
the NW. Lots of heat from buildings and roads which is
more "fuel" in the CAPE machine. As it crosses the
Parramatta River, the landscape changes. Lots of trees
now, all transpiring massively. Humidity climbs. Now add
in a greater feed of moist air off the coast to the NE
and E and a bit more lift as the leading edge of the
storm climbs the 100m or so up from the Parramatta River
to the hilly, leafy parts of Sydney's north shore. What
often happens is that the storm literally explodes but
if the NE/E sea breeze is too cold and strong, it can also
snuff the vacuum-beast out.
Back to the model...Parcels would need to be at a scale
less than 1km square and 10mbar high with a myriad of
landform types modelled including several styles of city-
scapes. It would be primarily an "energy" model with
energy balance being important. To explain the "storm
following storm" phenomena, one can imagine that the
first storm's passage may alter the parcel nature within
the "waste out" path. The nature of the waste might very
well form the fuel for the trailing storm. Has there been
any work done on such a detailed model or even whether
such a model would be of value?
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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021
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2000 23:30:38 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: and almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years
since...)
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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This description fits an intense HP. The front flank updraft is the most
common feature. Both storms probably contained what I call the Deep
Convergence Zone or DCZ. Lovely.......
> But some similarities also. In both storms there were copious CG's ahead
of
> the precipitation band. Both storms moved at 180 deg to a NE inflow,
> producing very strong straight winds in this direction (SW winds). Both
> storms were what I call "Type 1" complexes, where inflow/updraft is at
the
> leading edge of the storm with downdraft behind, i.e., not a conventional
> supercell structure, massive though they were. Likewise the heaviest
> precipitation, largest hail and strongest winds occurred with the onset
of
> the gust front.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
essage text written by INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com
>But some similarities also. In both storms there were copious CG's ahead
of
the precipitation band. Both storms moved at 180 deg to a NE inflow,
producing very strong straight winds in this direction (SW winds). Both
storms were what I call "Type 1" complexes, where inflow/updraft is at the
leading edge of the storm with downdraft behind, i.e., not a conventional
supercell structure, massive though they were. Likewise the heaviest
precipitation, largest hail and strongest winds occurred with the onset of
the gust front.<
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022
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 15:03:28 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: and almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years
since...)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>But some similarities also. In both storms there were copious CG's ahead of
>the precipitation band. Both storms moved at 180 deg to a NE inflow,
>producing very strong straight winds in this direction (SW winds). Both
>storms were what I call "Type 1" complexes, where inflow/updraft is at the
>leading edge of the storm with downdraft behind, i.e., not a conventional
>supercell structure, massive though they were. Likewise the heaviest
>precipitation, largest hail and strongest winds occurred with the onset of
>the gust front.
Interesting John. Would you care to expand on your classification system? :)
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
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023
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aus-wx: The prolonged warm spell at Adelaide, and some connections with the SOI
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 16:21:24 +1100 (EST)
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Adelaide has, today, experienced its 11th consecutive day over 30,
and its 8th consecutive night over 20 (all of them above 22.5).
Neither of the round thresholds are in record territory. The record
lengths are:
Max > 30:
14 27 January-9 February 1956
28 January-10 February 1930
13 26 January-7 February 1906
2-14 February 1929
1-13 March 1934
13-25 February 1996
Min > 20
14 24 January-6 February 1890
12 29 January-9 February 1956
11 27 February-9 March 1989
The eight consecutive nights above 22.5 are unprecented (there were
7 in 1908 and 1934).
Also interesting is the relationship between these long spells and the
SOI. There have been 15 spells of 11 or more consecutive days over
30; 12 of these have been in periods where the SOI (averaged over 3
months centred on the heatwave) has been positive, 6 of them with it
exceeding +10. Similarly, all of the 5 spells of 10 or more
consecutive nights over 20 have been associated with positive SOI,
and four of the five have seen SOI > +10.
(This accidental discovery may well become the subject of some more
serious research - stay tuned).
Blair Trewin
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024
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WA storms of 14/1/00
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 17:03:29 +1100 (EST)
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>
> This area has seen this sort of weather before. I forget when ( many years
> ago ) but there was that Cocklebiddy Cave event that trapped cavers.
>
> Michael
>
>
> > I've written up this event at
> > http://ausweather.simplenet.com/news/news0001.html#14
> >
> > Some of the 24 hour rainfall totals to 9am on the 15th seem likely to
> > break previous records, and are quite amazing for southern WA in
> > mid-summer. Balladonia's reported 80.6mm, if true, is an all-time
> > record for the station, which has about 75 years complete record
> > dating back to 1891. Given some of the other falls in southeastern WA
> > (Truro, south of Lake King, 82mm, Coolgardie PO 72.8, Hopetoun North,
> > south of Ravensthorpe, 71), and looking at the satpix, the report
> > seems credible.
> >
> > --
> > Laurier Williams
> > Australian Weather News & Links
> > http://ausweather.simplenet.com
The Balladonia figure certainly seems reasonable in the context of
other WA recordings of the day. The database also contains a 4-day
fall of 104mm for the 96 hours ending at 0900 on the 7th, but I do
not give much credence to this (no other station in the area appears
to have recorded any rain at all in this period).
It is a daily record for the site, as Laurier says, and the monthly
total of 137mm (to date, not including the suspect 104) is a January
record, and the second-largest for any month.
Heavy rains in summer are not unknown in that part of the world, but
they are more commonly associated with ex-tropical cyclones (e.g.
Bobby).
Blair Trewin
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025
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 16:14:02 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Savage Monsoonal Storm
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Hi Paul and all,
Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au wrote:
> Then the rain swathed through - you could actually here it coming - driven
> along by the downdrafts. Wasn't as heavy as the storm of the 9.1.00 - but it
> was heavy enough to make my street look like a Tropical River - and watch as a
> wheely bin floated by!!
>
> 32.4mm rain received from the storm - most in an intense fall in a period about
> 15 mins - then steady light rain for an hour.
Wow, and I thought Brisbane drainage was bad! 32.4mm in 1hr and 15mins
caused enough water to make a wheely bin float down your street!? I
know that most of that occurred in fifteen minutes - but even October
13, when some places received in excess of 30-40mm in 10 minutes wasn't
that bad - although quite a few of the storm water drains did back up
and overflow. I was always under the impression that all city drainage
systems were built to withstand a 1 in 10 year flood, and I thought
Darwin would have had an excellent drainage system to cope with the
"tropical downpours" from thunderstorms - but from the information
you've given in your emails, this obviously isn't the case! Do you or
anyone else know why Darwin drainage systems can't seem to cope with
"normal" thunderstorms? Maybe it has something to do with the fact that
Darwin has a dry season, so to make things cheaper for the council, they
'even' out all the rainfall over the entire year, rather than the main
wet season which is only about half that.
I know KL in Malaysia has a very good drainage system - the drains were
extremely deep, and the open storm water drains were like small rivers!
They used to fill up when it poured for a long time, but I never saw one
overflow (I wanted to see one overflow, but then on the other hand I
didn't - because a lot of people live near them in shanties :-(
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 17:13:43 +1100
026
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The prolonged warm spell at Adelaide, and some connections
with the SOI
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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[snip Adelaide hot spell stuff]
Blair Trewin wrote on Tue, 18 Jan 2000 16:21:24 +1100 (EST):
>
> Also interesting is the relationship between these long spells and the
> SOI. There have been 15 spells of 11 or more consecutive days over
> 30; 12 of these have been in periods where the SOI (averaged over 3
> months centred on the heatwave) has been positive, 6 of them with it
> exceeding +10. Similarly, all of the 5 spells of 10 or more
> consecutive nights over 20 have been associated with positive SOI,
> and four of the five have seen SOI > +10.
>
> (This accidental discovery may well become the subject of some more
> serious research - stay tuned).
I don't think it is an accident, Blair...About 12 months ago, I did
some extensive correllation work with the SOI and snow-fall, finally
concluding that the SOI alone was not a good indicator of what to
expect in the snow season. Further discussion with Dr. David Jones
and work on the EOF was more enlightening. On my way through this,
I attempted some correllation with temperature distribution. This
actually gave better results, so I concluded that the SOI, being
essentially a measure of the MSL pressure anomally between Darwin
and Tahiti, gave some hint as to what MSL patterns predominated.
If there was a better way of representing MSL distribution in a
numerical model, then I'm fairly confident that a correllation
will emmerge together with indices similar to the EOF that can
be used over Australia. The key to my on-going research in this
area stems from an ability to numerally represent the distribution
of any pattern and having enough free time to work on it. Internally
to the BoM, you'd have free access to the source data. However, all
I have at my disposal are my eyes and a gif analysis program in trial
development initially to plot severe storms on BoM internet radar
images. I would be keenly interested in any progress that the BoM
may make in this area.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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027
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 16:31:10 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Savage Monsoonal Storm
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Hi Paul, Everyone..
Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au wrote:
>
> Hi all.
<>
> Lightning lasted well over 2 hours!!!! With thunder so loud and forcible that
> it actually moved you physically.
Thunder that actually moves you PHYSICALLY!!! Can't say i've ever
experienced that.. but it sounds good!
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028
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Adelaide's midnight temperature
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 17:57:44 +1100 (EST)
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>
>
> Amazing temperatures in Adelaide tonight, at 12:00 midnight CDT it was
> 34.6C, and at 1am CDT it was still 34.2C.
>
> Adelaide for some reason has warmer nights after hot days than the other
> southern capital cities, but even still, thats extreme heat for that time
> of night.
Adelaide is one of very few major cities in the world that experiences
30+ nights on any sort of regular basis - others which come to mind
are Phoenix, New Delhi, Karachi and various centres around the Persian
Gulf. Many tropical cities have had many, many nights around 28-29,
but few higher (Singapore and Hong Kong have both been to 30, but
not beyond).
> Adelaide's highest minimum on record is 33.5C on the 24/1/1982, compare
> that to Melbourne's highest of 30.3 on 1/2/1902 and Perth's highest of 29.3
> on the 3/2/1962 (29.3 also occurred on 2 other nights).
Melbourne is actually 30.6, with some question marks about the
observation period (it was certainly a valid overnight minimum, but
probably not a 24-hour one). Also 28.8 on 21/1/1997.
Aggravatingly, there is no Adelaide midnight obs for 24/1/1982, but
other hourly temps were 38.0 at 2100, 36.2 at 0300, 35.7 at 0600.
This day also saw the highest Australian minimum temperature (in the
digital record) of 35.5 at Arkaroola, although I'd be very surprised
if there wasn't something higher at the tail end of the January
1939 heatwave, given that even Canberra (NOT a place noted for high
minima!) managed a 32!
> The Adelaide BoM is going for a min of 25 and a max of 33, so they expect
> the change to come though before the 9am cut off time.
>
Actually, this looked like (with some justification) a 'cover-our-
backsides' forecast, suggesting a change arrival time close to 9
(which turned out to be more or less spot on). There was a particularly
infamous occasion in Melbourne in the early 1980's (IIRC, on the tail
end of the January 1982 heatwave) where the change was forecast during
the day and the expected maximum was about 42; as it turned out the
change came through about 7 (with it not having dropped below 32 all
night) and the post-0900 maximum was only about 20, a pretty
horrendous result from a 4-6 hour error in timing! I wouldn't like
to have been the forecaster(s) who were stuck with that on their
verification stats (root-mean-square is a typical verification
indicator, and a 20C error on one day would end up as an RMS error of
1.1 for the whole year even if every other forecast was perfect).
Blair Trewin
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029
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
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Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 17:47:40 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Minor Flood Warning Northern NSW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I hope people do understand that ASWA and the list should not be mistaken
as the same thing. People have agreed that this is a public forum and
should not be taken as representative of ASWA. All one could say is that
some ASWA members use this list as a discussion forum. I hope any of the
Bureau members on this list are fully aware of this.
Jimmy Deguara
At 17:19 17/01/00 +1100, you wrote:
>People on the list should be very careful when using the term 'warning'
>- if ASWA puts out anything which purports to be a public warning it's
>likely to be exactly the sort of thing that upsets people at the
>Bureau, which is presumably not what ASWA is trying to achieve.
>I'm sure most people here can work out what sort of confusion is
>likely to arise if multiple organisations are issuing separate
>(and possibly conflicting) warnings (and even in those countries, like
>the US and NZ, with large commercial forecasting operations, the
>national meteorological service retains the sole authority to issue
>warnings).
>
>I don't think anyone would have a problem with a heading like
>'Flooding possible in Richmond River system' and text along the lines
>of 'if X happens then I expect the Bureau will issue a flood warning...'
>
>(What is below is actually more akin to a Potential Flood Alert/
>Flood Watch - which some, but not all, states now put on the
>'warnings' section of the Bureau's external web page).
>
>Blair Trewin
>
> > Halden Boyd ASWA puts out the following to aus-wx people:
> > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> > *******MINOR FLOOD WARNING for the RICHMOND RIVER SYSTEM********
> > (NORTH ARM WILSONS RIVER)
> > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> > Consistent rainfall in the Richmond (Wilsons River) catchment since April
> > 1999 which has saturated the water table, and new precipitation over the
> > past 24 hours....and what will be dumped on it tonight from a low I have
> > predicted (for the last 3 days) forming off the northern NSW coast will
> lead
> > to a minor flooding in the Lismore region, especially upstream from the
> > city. A minor flood warning will be issued from the BOM over the next 24
> > hours for the area.
> > Regards Halden Boyd
> > Australian Severe Weather Association
> >
> >
> >
> > ______________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
> >
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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030
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good snow towns for chases...
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 17:48:04 +1100
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My last sucessful snow chase was 10pm one night during the winter of 1998.
It was 10C at Wollongong with a strong westerly blowing, a very rare shower
came through ( rare for showers with west winds on the coast ) at approx
9.30pm. I checked the radar and saw some further light showers near Moss
Vale so I chased.
It was a full moon and even at the top of Macquarie pass I was bathed in
cloudless moonshine. However between Roberstson and Moss Vale rapidly moving
low cloud pass over the moon, first I struck sleet, then finally full on
snow flurries. You can tell, the snow seems to whiz over the windscreen.
Throughout the moon was still barely visible through the cloud.
I have worked out a rough guide that once you get down to 10C in Wollongong
with showers, then snow is possible on the highest parts of the escarpment
close to 800m. It probably is 2-3C at 800m still.
Michael
> Couldn't agree more Michael. It's exciting seeing it fall outside the
> traditional areas. One of the best times I had last year was pulling the
> car over just before the descent into Jenolan Caves, (On the Mount
> Trickett side) and reading the Sunday paper there whilst watching snow
> fall in beautiful light winds. It was just gorgeous. Only lasted for
> half an hour and say maybe an inch on the car roof, if that, but the
> whole area was white, courtesy of that fall and and an earlier dusting.
>
> The great thing up here (Being generally a marginal area for snow) is
> that you can see from our lookouts (within walking distance of my home)
> if the low cloud is covering/settling over Oberon way in winter. If its
> sleeting/raining here and 3 or 4 degrees, there's a good chance of snow
> out Oberon way. A lot of folk get disappointed when they come to look
> for snow from Sydney, expecting to see huge drifts everywhere. It's not
> like that here, well, not often anyway. But out Oberon way? Oh yes, lots
> of it. Unless you live here, its hard to get to Oberon at the right time
> though.
>
>
> Lindsay P.
>
> Michael Thompson wrote:
> >
> > Because it's there. Actually snow is that rare at low altitudes in
Australia
> > that it is a frill to score snow outside the traditional areas. Add to
that
> > the fact that I have seen snow perhaps a dozen times, but only twice
seen
> > snow develop from rain ( and no snow on the ground ).
> > Michael
> >
> > > I was wondering what the purpose of the chases you do in winter are
for
> > and
> > > which state you are in (sorry new to the list). I am an avid snow
chaser
> > and
> > > had very sucessfull trips last year (have some awesome photos from a
snow
> > > storm in may).
> > >
> >
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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031
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Savage Monsoonal Storm
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 16:36:27 +0930
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Hi Anthony et al.
No - the drainage here is prob among the best I have ever seen.
The problem with my estate is that it is in a gully. They are also still
working on the estate - so there is alot of dirt etc carried by trucks that
have filled drains to blocking (alas to the crys of outrage from the Residents
assoc & Body coporates). So the water just keeps growing as it gets to the end
of where I live - and resultant in great torrents. Also - there is no storm
water drainage here - everything that falls on roofs is directed onto roadways
, pavements etc. So you can imagine the runoff from downpipes alone which is
concentrated in smaller areas unlike natural rain water.
Probably another point - the ground is so saturated now that anything that
falls is 100% run-off - there is no soakage. Whereas in Brisbane you would prob
have more soakage and also you have storm water darins for housing - thus
directing alot of water away from the street level.
PS The wheelie bin was empty - it was after garbage night!
Anway serves the guy right for leaving it on the side of the road anway !!
Maybe next time he will move it!
cyclone at flatrate.net.au at SMTP at world.std.com on 18/01/2000 04:07:33 PM
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cc:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Savage Monsoonal Storm
Hi Paul and all,
Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au wrote:
> Then the rain swathed through - you could actually here it coming - driven
> along by the downdrafts. Wasn't as heavy as the storm of the 9.1.00 - but it
> was heavy enough to make my street look like a Tropical River - and watch as a
> wheely bin floated by!!
>
> 32.4mm rain received from the storm - most in an intense fall in a period
about > 15 mins - then steady light rain for an hour.
Wow, and I thought Brisbane drainage was bad! 32.4mm in 1hr and 15mins
caused enough water to make a wheely bin float down your street!? I
know that most of that occurred in fifteen minutes - but even October
13, when some places received in excess of 30-40mm in 10 minutes wasn't
that bad - although quite a few of the storm water drains did back up
and overflow. I was always under the impression that all city drainage
systems were built to withstand a 1 in 10 year flood, and I thought
Darwin would have had an excellent drainage system to cope with the
"tropical downpours" from thunderstorms - but from the information
you've given in your emails, this obviously isn't the case! Do you or
anyone else know why Darwin drainage systems can't seem to cope with
"normal" thunderstorms? Maybe it has something to do with the fact that
Darwin has a dry season, so to make things cheaper for the council, they
'even' out all the rainfall over the entire year, rather than the main
wet season which is only about half that.
I know KL in Malaysia has a very good drainage system - the drains were
extremely deep, and the open storm water drains were like small rivers!
They used to fill up when it poured for a long time, but I never saw one
overflow (I wanted to see one overflow, but then on the other hand I
didn't - because a lot of people live near them in shanties :-(
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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032
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Savage Monsoonal Storm
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 16:43:19 +0930
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Yeah to put your hands over your ears !!
:)
But seriously - No - the closeness of the hits and the resultant sound waves
were incredible - you could almost feel like a force slap you every time it hit
close enough.
Maybe any scientist can comment - but I know that sound waves travel much
faster in water then in air - possibly the high humidity + rain falling acted
like a carrier for the sound waves caused by the lightning? Dunno - but it felt
very very amazing
I have just never heard thunder like it - and heard it reverberate around the
countryside (almost like placing a tin on your head).
Anways - plenty of superficial damage done - trees, branches down, power lines
down, some very localised flooding.
I am aware of a big tree that was brought down on McMillans Road causing some
traffic probs.
Was just nice.
bodie at flatrate.net.au at SMTP at world.std.com on 18/01/2000 04:19:40 PM
Please respond to aussie-weather at world.std.com at SMTP
Sent by: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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cc:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Savage Monsoonal Storm
Hi Paul, Everyone..
Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au wrote:
>
> Hi all.
<>
> Lightning lasted well over 2 hours!!!! With thunder so loud and forcible that
> it actually moved you physically.
Thunder that actually moves you PHYSICALLY!!! Can't say i've ever
experienced that.. but it sounds good!
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033
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storm types (was almost 9 years since...)
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 17:11:26 +1000
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Hi Phil,
Here is a slightly amended copy of an email I sent to Anthony C. describing
my classification system. So I might as well embarrass myself totally:
-------------
Yo Anthony,
Long before I heard of such things as Supercells, multicells & pulse storms,
I had formed a private storm classification system based on the structure
and properties of storm systems I observed. You won't find this in a text
book and I have not discussed this anyone prior to this point, but feel it
may be of interest albeit from "left field". Certainly, I would be
interested in your comments.
Essentially I recognise 5 distinct storms types as follows:
Type 1: Convectional Squall Line - RFB, Inflow and updraft to the front of
the storm, storm moves directly or almost directly towards inflow. Multiple
cells may form in a line. Passage of storm characterised by a sharp 180
deg reversal in wind direction with a guster, reverting to previous
direction after storm has passed. Anvil direction is typically within 90
deg of storm movement and commonly closely alligned. Spectacular gust front
formation is characteristic and storms may be severe depending upon depth
and strength of convection, can produce damaging straight winds and large
hail, but tornadoes very unlikely, except possibly as weak spin ups on the
edges or as gustnadoes. Storm structure is stable and can persist for long
paths. This type normally accounts for the majority of Brisbane summer
storms (but not this season as it happens!!).
Type 2: Rear updraught convectional storm - RFB, inflow and updraft to the
rear of the storm, apparent storm direction is a vector sum of the middle
atmosphere winds and direction of fresh convection, thus can appear to move
in any direction on radar and often at least 90 deg from the direction of
the Anvil. The classic Supercell and flanking line belong to this type.
(Curiously, before I had heard of the word Supercell, I had recognised that
this structure potentially produced the most severe effects). When the
overall movement of this type is towards the direction of the anvil,
approach is heralded by gradually increasing precipitation, with no gust
front or shelf cloud. Gust fronts & shelf clouds manifest on the leading
edge of the downdraft when the movement is greater than 90 deg of the
direction of shear/Anvil. Storm structure requires high levels of shear to
move the downdraft out of the updraft region and can be stable and persist
for long paths. Updraft rotation is common and tornadic development
possible.
Type 3: Multicell convectional cluster - Movement is with prevailing winds
aloft, no distinct gust front or shelf cloud, collapse of one cell typically
assists building an adjacent cell. Typically occurs in conditions of low
shear and low jet. Damaging wind gusts (pulse severe) are unlikely but can
occur with collapse of individual cells if large enough with sufficient
convection. This type is common in inland situations and in tropical
regions. Areas of RFB and precipitation within the cluster. Unlikely to
produce rotation, tornadoes or large hail. Individual cells short lived as
they are self extinguishing, but the cluster may persist for some time.
Type 4: Forced squall line - Where a squall line forms due to a forcing
mechanism such as a cold front. RFB & inflow is to the front of the storm,
but shelf cloud typically absent. Characterised by increasing wind and a
wind shift less than 90deg which persists after the line has passed. No
sharp wind reversals as per type 1. Common winter time phenomenen with cold
fronts (4a), and can occur in Brisbane with strong SE changes throughout the
year (4b). Large hail unlikely, weak Tornadoes can occur in the inflow
region derived from a similar mechanism to waterspouts, spinning up due to
horizontal shear and low level convergence, probably requiring that air
parcels both ahead and behind the "front" are unstable.
Type 5: Horizontal convergence - A macro scale phenomenen with large area of
precipitation with embedded storm cells typically associated with lows or
broad troughs. Characterised by large approaching and departing cirrus anvil
sheets, no gust fronts or shelf clouds, tyically very little wind and no
RFB's.
With all storm types, there can be large differences in size and severity,
depending upon the degree of instability, shear, etc., in the atmosphere.
The key is structure and how the storm is working in terms of
updrafts/downdrafts and movement.
So hum, I don't know what you think of all this, but I find it is generally
easy to classify events with this system. For example, all cells I observed
in Brisbane on 7/11/99 were clearly Type 2, whereas the following day 8/11,
I would describe as a Type 5 event. Last night (17/1/2000) was Type 3.
October 13 '98 was a severe form of Type 4, accompanying a SE change and
surprise surprise, Jan '85 was a Type 1 (which incidentally means that it
may not have been a "Supercell"!!! depending upon your definition thereof -
confirmed by the fact there was no rear updraft or flanking line).
The March '98 Harlin storm was a Type 2 moving Northward with a SE facing
anvil, as was Sydney hailstorm on April 14 '99.
Type 2 cells can do things like appear to follow coastlines, which I suggest
is because more bouyant air over land is influencing the direction of fresh
convection. They can also appear to migrate inland, if the speed of
development of fresh convection is greater than the mid-altitude flow.
Radar typically only shows precipitation, thus some interpretation may be
necessary to distinguish types on radar. Squall lines do show clearly of
course, and the hooks associated with type 2 storms derive from when new
precipitation forms in the updraft region of the updraft/downdraft pair.
Storm types can also evolve, although this doesn't happen often because the
conditions which created the storm in the first place don't usually change
that much. However, type 3 clusters may grow into type 1 or 2 storms,
particularly in the presence of an influencing factor such as the arrival of
a seabreeze front or SE change.
Regards,
John.
>snip
Other interesting cells will be the 'famous' Sydney April 14 supercell,
that followed the coast northwards. A believe 2 recent very large
supercells in NE NSW have also followed this pattern (ie, moved
Northwards just along the coast).
It all seems too much of a coincidence for me. Does anyone care to
comment on why they believe this happens? Perhaps it has something to
do with the way a storm can tap into hot, humid air, and warm moist air
behind a cooler air boundary?
--
Anthony Cornelius
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034
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Savage Monsoonal Storm
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 17:18:30 +1000
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Hi Anthony/Paul.
>From my visits to Darwin, I recall that it is significantly flatter than
Brisbane, and much of it close to sea level, which might have a lot to do
with how quickly areas flood. Similarly in Brisbane where there are flat
low lying areas, like Rocklea or Toombul which rapidly become trouble areas
in any sort of heavy rain.
John
>snip
I thought Darwin would have had an excellent drainage system to cope with
the
"tropical downpours" from thunderstorms - but from the information
you've given in your emails, this obviously isn't the case! Do you or
anyone else know why Darwin drainage systems can't seem to cope with
"normal" thunderstorms? Maybe it has something to do with the fact that
Darwin has a dry season, so to make things cheaper for the council, they
'even' out all the rainfall over the entire year, rather than the main
wet season which is only about half that.
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035
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
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Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 18:45:57 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Jimmy's version... almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years
since...)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi members on the list,
Much has been documented about the ferocious activity that hit Turramurra.
My attention is now focusing on the earlier life of the supercell near
Picton. I have already mentioned to the list and some ASWA members about
the report I got from my parent's friends who live near Picton. They
described both to my mother and myself the size of the hail with two hands
(I would suggest this is partially exaggerated but would be greater than
7cm and more about 10 -11cm). The hail lasted for about 20 minutes and they
huddled in a room. Hail completely cleared all the windows on one side and
went straight into the house and even into rooms that were open!!! The son
was in the greenhouse at the time and was knocked unconscious by hail that
went through the greenhouse also on the farm (I am not certain what type of
material the greenhouse had but it was stated that it was lucky he was in
the greenhouse or he would have been battered to death by the hail). The
house by the way was smashed with all roof tiles chattered and if I recall
even inside furniture and carpets were hit by the hail as it smashed the
windows and also rain entered through. I have still to confirm all these
details but me thinks at least that hail was much greater than the 7cm in
this part of the storm. By the way, the defoliation of trees was described
as incredible with all the fruit trees never recovering after the event.
When they spoke to me, they suggested what I already knew that the area was
susceptible to hail each season, even large hail is nothing unusual for the
area. But they were absolutely terrified by this event.
All I can say is lucky this was a rural community and not residential. I
can see such an event surpassing the April 14th event. We can only
speculate what we hear and what evidence and measurements could be taken.
Obviously if one of us was there, it would make it much easier. Would
there have been any volunteers? :)
Jimmy Deguara
At 10:22 18/01/00 -0500, you wrote:
>Sydney's version
>
>James Chambers" wrote:
>
>>Hi all
>>
>>For those who don't know, tomorrow (January 18) will be the 15th anniversary
>>of the great Brisbane Hailstorm. It occurred on a Friday afternoon as
>>people drove home from work. Widespread Cricket ball hail and winds
>>recorded up to 185 km/h at the Brisbane Airport (100kn) and 145km/h in the
>>CBD (78kn) decimated many cars and buildings.
>
>
>It is also almost 9 nine years since what is widely regarded as the most
>damaging thunderstorm in Australian history (21/1/91) - 164000 homes
>blacked out, 7000 homes damaged, 20 of which were demolished afterwards.
>This is a very similar storm to the Brisbane event (of course both were HP
>supercells) in terms of hail size (7cm) and wind strength (considerably
>stronger in the Sydney event) - damage surveys of this one indicated F2
>bordering on F3 category straight-line winds (250km/h) in the Duffys
>forest area. I think this is also the storm which is suspected to have
>dropped a tornado. This occurred much earlier on when the storm was in the
>sticks near Camden on Sydney's south west outskirts. As with the
>abovementioned Brisbane example it is amazing that no one was killed by
>this violent storm.
>
>
>A little more info and radar can be found here:
>http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/inside/sevwx/public/21jan91.shtml
>
>and there was also a publication on the event titled 'The Storm'; I think
>it is published by Kuringai council.
>______________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>
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036
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Savage Monsoonal Storm
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 17:40:43 +1000
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Hmmm,
Interesting thought. If the tree was big enough, it means that it survived
Tracy in '74, but not your storm.
John.
>snip
I am aware of a big tree that was brought down on McMillans Road causing
some
traffic probs.
Was just nice.
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037
X-Originating-IP: [203.101.79.20]
From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Minor Flood Warning cum advice
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 00:21:54 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hiya Blair....when is a warning not a warning....sheesh the BOM don't
publish stuff on the strength of an aus wx mail message for christs sake.
They just didn't see it coming as as fast as a local did.
Halden
>From: Blair Trewin
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Minor Flood Warning Northern NSW
>Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2000 17:19:16 +1100 (EST)
>
>People on the list should be very careful when using the term 'warning'
>- if ASWA puts out anything which purports to be a public warning it's
>likely to be exactly the sort of thing that upsets people at the
>Bureau, which is presumably not what ASWA is trying to achieve.
>I'm sure most people here can work out what sort of confusion is
>likely to arise if multiple organisations are issuing separate
>(and possibly conflicting) warnings (and even in those countries, like
>the US and NZ, with large commercial forecasting operations, the
>national meteorological service retains the sole authority to issue
>warnings).
>
>I don't think anyone would have a problem with a heading like
>'Flooding possible in Richmond River system' and text along the lines
>of 'if X happens then I expect the Bureau will issue a flood warning...'
>
>(What is below is actually more akin to a Potential Flood Alert/
>Flood Watch - which some, but not all, states now put on the
>'warnings' section of the Bureau's external web page).
>
>Blair Trewin
>
> > Halden Boyd ASWA puts out the following to aus-wx people:
> > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> > *******MINOR FLOOD WARNING for the RICHMOND RIVER SYSTEM********
> > (NORTH ARM WILSONS RIVER)
> > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> > Consistent rainfall in the Richmond (Wilsons River) catchment since
>April
> > 1999 which has saturated the water table, and new precipitation over the
> > past 24 hours....and what will be dumped on it tonight from a low I have
> > predicted (for the last 3 days) forming off the northern NSW coast will
>lead
> > to a minor flooding in the Lismore region, especially upstream from the
> > city. A minor flood warning will be issued from the BOM over the next 24
> > hours for the area.
> > Regards Halden Boyd
> > Australian Severe Weather Association
> >
> >
> >
> > ______________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
> >
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> >
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038
X-Originating-IP: [203.101.79.20]
From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Minor Flood Warning Northern NSW
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 00:27:06 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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You want me to resign Jimmy??
>From: Jimmy Deguara
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Minor Flood Warning Northern NSW
>Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 17:47:40 +1100
>
>I hope people do understand that ASWA and the list should not be mistaken
>as the same thing. People have agreed that this is a public forum and
>should not be taken as representative of ASWA. All one could say is that
>some ASWA members use this list as a discussion forum. I hope any of the
>Bureau members on this list are fully aware of this.
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
>At 17:19 17/01/00 +1100, you wrote:
>>People on the list should be very careful when using the term 'warning'
>>- if ASWA puts out anything which purports to be a public warning it's
>>likely to be exactly the sort of thing that upsets people at the
>>Bureau, which is presumably not what ASWA is trying to achieve.
>>I'm sure most people here can work out what sort of confusion is
>>likely to arise if multiple organisations are issuing separate
>>(and possibly conflicting) warnings (and even in those countries, like
>>the US and NZ, with large commercial forecasting operations, the
>>national meteorological service retains the sole authority to issue
>>warnings).
>>
>>I don't think anyone would have a problem with a heading like
>>'Flooding possible in Richmond River system' and text along the lines
>>of 'if X happens then I expect the Bureau will issue a flood warning...'
>>
>>(What is below is actually more akin to a Potential Flood Alert/
>>Flood Watch - which some, but not all, states now put on the
>>'warnings' section of the Bureau's external web page).
>>
>>Blair Trewin
>>
>> > Halden Boyd ASWA puts out the following to aus-wx people:
>> > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>> > *******MINOR FLOOD WARNING for the RICHMOND RIVER SYSTEM********
>> > (NORTH ARM WILSONS RIVER)
>> > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>> > Consistent rainfall in the Richmond (Wilsons River) catchment since
>>April
>> > 1999 which has saturated the water table, and new precipitation over
>>the
>> > past 24 hours....and what will be dumped on it tonight from a low I
>>have
>> > predicted (for the last 3 days) forming off the northern NSW coast will
>>lead
>> > to a minor flooding in the Lismore region, especially upstream from the
>> > city. A minor flood warning will be issued from the BOM over the next
>>24
>> > hours for the area.
>> > Regards Halden Boyd
>> > Australian Severe Weather Association
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > ______________________________________________________
>> > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>> >
>> >
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>> > message.
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>> >
>>
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039
From: "Paul Mossman" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 18:56:46 +0930
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Savage Monsoonal Storm
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HI John.
I went to the actual tree - it appears (from its charred outer base
that was neatly cut with a chainsaw) it was actually hit by lightning
or very close to it - as I pondered in my 1st email.
I even rang the BOM Severe Weather Head, Ian Sheppard and
mentioned the tree - he said "most likely lightning" but also could
be termites / very soggy ground etc.
He is also very interested in having a meeting with someone from
ASWA re: storm damage assessments, on the ground real obs.,
possible meetings for severe weather freaks - and any
information that can assist him. For those who went to Darwin last
year - we meet him briefly when we first arrived.
Paul.
On 18 Jan 00, at 17:40, John Woodbridge wrote:
> Hmmm,
>
> Interesting thought. If the tree was big enough, it means that it
> survived Tracy in '74, but not your storm.
>
> John.
> >snip
>
> I am aware of a big tree that was brought down on McMillans Road
> causing some traffic probs.
>
> Was just nice.
>
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>
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040
From: "Paul Mossman" [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 19:05:24 +0930
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Minor Flood Warning Northern NSW
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Hi Halden. I hope you dont - and I wouldnt think that Jimmy would
either.
:-)
I think you both raised good points - firstly that this is an open
forum - and information if taken off here by a third party is at THEIR
own peril - I mean nowhere did Halden purport to be anyone in an
Official capacity - just merely making us aware of his thoughts.
Now what if soemone at the BOM did see that - and check into the
situation - and possbly saved a life or averted a flood situation (I
realise that this may be an extreme but Michael T did warn them
about the Sydney Hailstorm before it got going...)? All worth it I
would have thought.
But I also see where Blair is coming from - these days of liability,
the fact that the BOM are in the marketplace as a provider now
rather then as a supplier, etc and the nature of relationship with the
BOM that the ASWA exec are trying to nurture - but I really dont
think that the BOM would have even bat an eyelid over it - I mean
Haldens very first line says that he puts the "aus-wx people" on
notice.
Maybe Blairs email can be more a warning of what we as an
individual do with that information - always remember that this is
purely a open forum and not in an official capacity - and nothing
said on this list to be used as either!
Rgds, Paul.
On 18 Jan 00, at 0:27, Halden Boyd wrote:
> You want me to resign Jimmy??
>
>
> >From: Jimmy Deguara
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Minor Flood Warning Northern NSW
> >Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 17:47:40 +1100
> >
> >I hope people do understand that ASWA and the list should not be
> >mistaken as the same thing. People have agreed that this is a public
> >forum and should not be taken as representative of ASWA. All one
> >could say is that some ASWA members use this list as a discussion
> >forum. I hope any of the Bureau members on this list are fully aware
> >of this.
> >
> >Jimmy Deguara
> >
> >At 17:19 17/01/00 +1100, you wrote:
> >>People on the list should be very careful when using the term
> >>'warning' - if ASWA puts out anything which purports to be a public
> >>warning it's likely to be exactly the sort of thing that upsets
> >>people at the Bureau, which is presumably not what ASWA is trying to
> >>achieve. I'm sure most people here can work out what sort of
> >>confusion is likely to arise if multiple organisations are issuing
> >>separate (and possibly conflicting) warnings (and even in those
> >>countries, like the US and NZ, with large commercial forecasting
> >>operations, the national meteorological service retains the sole
> >>authority to issue warnings).
> >>
> >>I don't think anyone would have a problem with a heading like
> >>'Flooding possible in Richmond River system' and text along the
> >>lines of 'if X happens then I expect the Bureau will issue a flood
> >>warning...'
> >>
> >>(What is below is actually more akin to a Potential Flood Alert/
> >>Flood Watch - which some, but not all, states now put on the
> >>'warnings' section of the Bureau's external web page).
> >>
> >>Blair Trewin
> >>
> >> > Halden Boyd ASWA puts out the following to aus-wx people:
> >> > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> >> > *******MINOR FLOOD WARNING for the RICHMOND RIVER SYSTEM********
> >> > (NORTH ARM WILSONS RIVER)
> >> > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> >> > Consistent rainfall in the Richmond (Wilsons River) catchment
> >> > since
> >>April
> >> > 1999 which has saturated the water table, and new precipitation
> >> > over
> >>the
> >> > past 24 hours....and what will be dumped on it tonight from a low
> >> > I
> >>have
> >> > predicted (for the last 3 days) forming off the northern NSW
> >> > coast will
> >>lead
> >> > to a minor flooding in the Lismore region, especially upstream
> >> > from the city. A minor flood warning will be issued from the BOM
> >> > over the next
> >>24
> >> > hours for the area.
> >> > Regards Halden Boyd
> >> > Australian Severe Weather Association
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > ______________________________________________________
> >> > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
> >> >
> >> >
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> >>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------
> >>---
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041
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Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 22:23:25 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: I am back from storm chase
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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After 1346km, I arrived back here at Schofields at 5pm. I must admit I
enjoyed the drive and the chase but it does take a lot out of you.
As was mentioned on the list (thanks to Michael Bath and James Harris),
there were many storms around during the early afternoon. One area of
storms I observed from the Ben Lemond range was spectacular. I took photos
and video of it as it developed a spectacular but reasonably narrow
rain-free base and then all the precipitation cascading down.
But the most impressive storm which dominated most of my video footage was
the storm that developed somewhere north of Tamworth or near Armidale. It
developed into a severe structure with a nice side anvil. This was the best
indication of instability and was what prompted us to move east towards
Inverell. It took about 30 kilometres of travelling before we came to a
good observation point to observe the mean looking precipitation cascade.
It had the usual tinge of green in a dark thick curtain. The cascade was
moving NW even though the storm overall was moving N. It was multicellular.
Further up the road, as it was approaching rapidly, we stopped for just one
more bit of footage and observation and the wind struck, soon followed by
tiny hail and then a clunk!!!
So we quickly took off and after travelling through bending tree areas and
also some twigs and smaller branches, we found ourselves just out of the
storm region. It was passing through so rapidly that after about 3 minutes
or so, we headed back in to survey whether hail had fallen and the size.
Well, after passing through some very heavy rain and running over a medium
branch, we stopped on the side of the road. I was surprised to see a large
hailstone with several hailstones fused together and then searching further
we found many jagged shaped hailstones. Some were thin whilst others were
in jagged ball shapes. Sizes ranged from pea sized to 3.5cm but jagged as
described.
An interesting storm. I was impressed with the storm's reflection of the
sunset to the west as well as the double rainbow. Photographs and video
will be processed over the coming days.
Jimmy Deguara
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042
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm types
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 22:43:12 +1100
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I think that the common thread with most of these supercells is that they
rode on a SE wind change.
Michael
Other interesting cells will be the 'famous' Sydney April 14 supercell,
> that followed the coast northwards. A believe 2 recent very large
> supercells in NE NSW have also followed this pattern (ie, moved
> Northwards just along the coast).
>
> It all seems too much of a coincidence for me. Does anyone care to
> comment on why they believe this happens? Perhaps it has something to
> do with the way a storm can tap into hot, humid air, and warm moist air
> behind a cooler air boundary?
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
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043
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Jimmy's version... almost 9 years since (was Re: It's 15 years since...)
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 22:49:55 +1100
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I have been chasing on a regular basis out to Picton and I have provided the
locals with some measure of protection from hail.
Seriously though, there is a fair evidence for a ' supercell ' pathway from
the southern highlands down the Camden Valley, and sometimes onto the north
suburbs of Sydney from there. I have seen two radar animations now, 1991 &
Oct 1994 that are practically identical paths.
Like the coastal supercells what is the common thread. Are these storms
simply drawing towards the higher moisture and heat to the NE.
This is one of the reasons why I still chase to Picton even though every
chase there has been a disappointing.
> My attention is now focusing on the earlier life of the supercell near
> Picton. I have already mentioned to the list and some ASWA members about
> the report I got from my parent's friends who live near Picton. They
> described both to my mother and myself the size of the hail with two hands
> (I would suggest this is partially exaggerated but would be greater than
> 7cm and more about 10 -11cm). The hail lasted for about 20 minutes and
they
> huddled in a room. Hail completely cleared all the windows on one side and
> went straight into the house and even into rooms that were open!!! The son
> was in the greenhouse at the time and was knocked unconscious by hail that
> went through the greenhouse also on the farm (I am not certain what type
of
> material the greenhouse had but it was stated that it was lucky he was in
> the greenhouse or he would have been battered to death by the hail). The
> house by the way was smashed with all roof tiles chattered and if I recall
> even inside furniture and carpets were hit by the hail as it smashed the
> windows and also rain entered through. I have still to confirm all these
> details but me thinks at least that hail was much greater than the 7cm in
> this part of the storm. By the way, the defoliation of trees was described
> as incredible with all the fruit trees never recovering after the event.
>
> When they spoke to me, they suggested what I already knew that the area
was
> susceptible to hail each season, even large hail is nothing unusual for
the
> area. But they were absolutely terrified by this event.
>
> All I can say is lucky this was a rural community and not residential. I
> can see such an event surpassing the April 14th event. We can only
> speculate what we hear and what evidence and measurements could be taken.
> Obviously if one of us was there, it would make it much easier. Would
> there have been any volunteers? :)
>
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044
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: I am back from storm chase
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 22:54:55 +1100
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Great to see you get a good hailstorm.
Sorry I am no help with radar updates but I have no net access from work.
I am just surprised you actually fled from the hail, new car ?
Michael
> After 1346km, I arrived back here at Schofields at 5pm. I must admit I
> enjoyed the drive and the chase but it does take a lot out of you.
>
> As was mentioned on the list (thanks to Michael Bath and James Harris),
> there were many storms around during the early afternoon. One area of
> storms I observed from the Ben Lemond range was spectacular. I took photos
> and video of it as it developed a spectacular but reasonably narrow
> rain-free base and then all the precipitation cascading down.
>
> But the most impressive storm which dominated most of my video footage was
> the storm that developed somewhere north of Tamworth or near Armidale. It
> developed into a severe structure with a nice side anvil. This was the
best
> indication of instability and was what prompted us to move east towards
> Inverell. It took about 30 kilometres of travelling before we came to a
> good observation point to observe the mean looking precipitation cascade.
> It had the usual tinge of green in a dark thick curtain. The cascade was
> moving NW even though the storm overall was moving N. It was
multicellular.
> Further up the road, as it was approaching rapidly, we stopped for just
one
> more bit of footage and observation and the wind struck, soon followed by
> tiny hail and then a clunk!!!
>
> So we quickly took off and after travelling through bending tree areas and
> also some twigs and smaller branches, we found ourselves just out of the
> storm region. It was passing through so rapidly that after about 3 minutes
> or so, we headed back in to survey whether hail had fallen and the size.
> Well, after passing through some very heavy rain and running over a medium
> branch, we stopped on the side of the road. I was surprised to see a large
> hailstone with several hailstones fused together and then searching
further
> we found many jagged shaped hailstones. Some were thin whilst others were
> in jagged ball shapes. Sizes ranged from pea sized to 3.5cm but jagged as
> described.
>
> An interesting storm. I was impressed with the storm's reflection of the
> sunset to the west as well as the double rainbow. Photographs and video
> will be processed over the coming days.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
045
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good snow towns for chases...
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 12:17:05 GMT
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On Tue, 18 Jan 2000 08:03:02 -0800, Lindsay
wrote:
>Thanks Paul,
>
>What is the condition of the road like? Is it gravel near the top or
>mostly bitumen?
>
I haven't travelled this road for some years, but last time I did, in
heavy rain, it was clayey gravel, so a bit skiddy. It is mostly
unsealed -- just some bitumen coming out of Gloucester, and patches
more around Moonan Flat. Someone else may have more uptodate info.
Laurier
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046
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good snow towns for chases...
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 12:15:15 GMT
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On Tue, 18 Jan 2000 07:57:50 -0800, Lindsay
wrote:
>Thanks Blair,
>
>I'll try and get a hold of the map you mentioned. If I remember
>correctly (We were somewhat distracted by listening to Australian Crawl
>at high volume during our holiday trip) the road is bitumen all the way
>to Black Springs from Oberon.
>
>
Lindsay, it's a good sealed road from Oberon to Black Springs. If
you're going that way, it can be interesting to do the circuit by
turning left onto the Crookwell road at Black Springs, then left again
about 10km farther on onto the Shooters Hill Road. There's about 4km
good gravel just after this turnoff, then it's sealed and mostly high
quality road back through Shooters Hill to Oberon. The road gets to
almost 1300m just north of Shooters Hill with good exposure from N
through W to S, so if anywhere's going to get snow, this area will.
Since the pine forest on the western side of the road was felled, the
views W to Mt Canobolas are excellent, if catastrophic from an
environmental point of view...
Laurier
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| Document: 000118.htm
Updated: 19 January 2000 |
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