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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Tuesday, 15 February 2000 |
From Subject
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001 "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] Tornadic outbreak in the States
002 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Tornadic outbreak in the States
003 "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] Tornadic outbreak in the States
004 Harald Richter [hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa Tornadic outbreak in the States
005 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Satellite pix...
006 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Scatterometer...
007 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Satellite pix...
008 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Tornadic outbreak in the States
009 Harald Richter [hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa Satellite pix... (fwd)
010 "mjpiper at ozemail.com.au" [mjpiper at ozemail.com Tornado Warnings on the Net
011 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Tornadic outbreak in the States
012 Harald Richter [hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa Tornadic outbreak in the States (fwd)
013 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] Brisbane-wx
014 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Tornado Warnings on the Net
015 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Severe Weather & Global Warming: Was ...
016 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] Tornadic outbreak in the States (fwd)
017 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Global Warming?
018 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Tornadic outbreak in the States (fwd)
019 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Global Warming?
020 "Paul Yole" [raptor at mail.satway.com.au] Satellite pix...
021 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Tornadic outbreak in the States (fwd)
022 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Tornadic outbreak in the States
023 paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Monsoon keeps delivering................
024 "Anthony Spierings" [as029 at powerup.com.au] BNE - How far away is Winter?
025 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Dry week for SE Australia
026 paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Obs. query
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net]
To: "aus-wx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Tornadic outbreak in the States
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2000 14:06:58 -0000
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list -
When you wake up there was a tornado
smashed through GA last night (UK time) with reports of 12 dead and 100++
injured....
Les (UK)
002
X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au
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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 06:03:23 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadic outbreak in the States
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
For coverage of the tornadoes that ripped through southwestern
Georgia earlier this morning, log on to TV station WALB in Albany.
They will be providing coverage throughout the day at their website.
http://www.walb.com/
that was from another list
At 02:06 PM 14/02/00 +0000, you wrote:
list
-
When you wake up there was a
tornado smashed through GA last night (UK time) with reports of 12 dead
and 100++ injured....
Les
(UK)
003
From: "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadic outbreak in the States
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2000 20:05:15 -0000
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----- Original Message -----
From:
Andrew
Wall
Sent: Monday, February 14, 2000 7:33
PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadic outbreak in
the States
For coverage of the tornadoes that ripped through southwestern
MSC's man on the spot, Les Lemon, is heading out that way today to see
what he can learn - you can expect a few postings. It's a bit early in the
season for tornadic supercells smashing their way through the Mid West
hopefully there will be no more loss of life...
ITN news (UK) showed MASSIVE tornadic supercell footage, wehether it was
for this storm or general footage I don't know.
Les Lemon posted this to me around 1330GMT when the news broke here
in the UK:
*snip*
I checked it out. Last evening and night I could tell it was bad
owing to
the number of watches out for the area. From what I have now
heard, the
outbreak heavily involved AR, TN, AL, and GA, In
southwest GA there are
reports of 12 dead and 100+ injuries but search and
rescue efforts are
still underway. Additionally, the outbreak
occurred during the night and
early morning hours before daylight when it
is harder to asses damage,
deaths, and injuries. The governor of the
state declared a multi-county
area in the southwest part of the state "in a
state of emergency". This is
normally done to allow the National
Guard to help police the area and give
state officials help in searching
for victims. They also help residents
find shelter, get medical help,
etc.
All for
now.......
Les
************************
Leslie R.
Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel.
816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
*snip*
------------------------------------------------------
Les Crossan
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W
UK Storm
Chaser / Severe Weather Enthusiast
Melbourne Storm Chasers (MSC)
- Victoria, AUS
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) - AUS
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
http://www.torro.org.uk/
Email:
les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM)
ICQ: 17296776
------------------------------------------------------
004
From: Harald Richter [hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadic outbreak in the States
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2000 14:03:11 -0600 (CST)
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Hi folks,
The current count is 12+ tornadoes and
24+ dead, mainly in SW Georgia. It is the old
never-ending story of most deaths apparently occuring
in a mobile home park near Camilla [spelling?] GA.
The event was pretty well anticipated as
a procouncerd upper-level trough raced through the
area, doing all the things procounced upper-level
troughs do with high dewpoints near the surface.
Harald
--
---------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069
ph.: (405) 366-0430
fax: (405) 579-0808
email: hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
---------------------------------------------
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005
X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.18]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Satellite pix...
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 09:37:07 EST
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Hi every1,
I'm sure this is old news but the following site
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/satellite.html
allows you to view the Earth from any satellite currently on their list!
Happy viewing!
Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
______________________________________________________
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006
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From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Scatterometer...
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 09:59:39 EST
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Interesting article at Scientific American online...
http://www.sciam.com/exhibit/2000/021400wind/index.html
Kevin.
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007
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Satellite pix...
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 08:25:05 +0930
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Hi Kevin & all..........
Didnt know about this site - thankyou!
Does anyone know of a site in USA that has up-to-date info on severe weather -
I just read that the National Weather Centre has watches / warnings out for
Tornadoes for several states for Tonight (USA Time).
Cheers.
Paul.
kjphyland at hotmail.com at SMTP at world.std.com on 15/02/2000 08:22:10 AM
Please respond to aussie-weather at world.std.com at SMTP
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cc:
Subject: aus-wx: Satellite pix...
Hi every1,
I'm sure this is old news but the following site
http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/satellite.html
allows you to view the Earth from any satellite currently on their list!
Happy viewing!
Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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008
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 10:21:39 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadic outbreak in the States
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Harald Richter wrote:
>
> Hi folks,
>
> The current count is 12+ tornadoes and
> 24+ dead, mainly in SW Georgia. It is the old
> never-ending story of most deaths apparently occuring
> in a mobile home park near Camilla [spelling?] GA.
>
> The event was pretty well anticipated as
> a procouncerd upper-level trough raced through the
> area, doing all the things procounced upper-level
> troughs do with high dewpoints near the surface.
>
When I saw this post, it sent a chill through my bones.
I feel that it is only a matter of time and with global
warming moving more severe weather in Sydney's direction
by virtue of the collision between increasing hot-N, a
moist NE feed and cold SW/S/SE air. Similar words will
spread over this list in the future, perhaps within the
next 10-15 years or earlie, concerning areas in the
Sydney basin.
My sincere sympathies to those affected in the USA...
Any word Les or Harald, whether advanced warning
mitigated the loss of life and injury?
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
009
From: Harald Richter [hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Satellite pix... (fwd)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2000 17:37:22 -0600 (CST)
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Paul,
> Does anyone know of a site in USA that has up-to-date info on severe weather -
> I just read that the National Weather Centre has watches / warnings out for
> Tornadoes for several states for Tonight (USA Time).
Here are a few URLs that give you info on the current watches
issued by the Storm Prediction Center in the US:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/index.html
http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/RadarSummary/
This page also includes warnings:
http://www.earthwatch.com/STORMWATCH/images/SWUS2D.gif
This one is also quite interesting:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/index.html
ATM it is South Carolina that has to deal with the
occasional rumble...
Harald
--
---------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069
ph.: (405) 366-0430
fax: (405) 579-0808
email: hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
---------------------------------------------
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010
From: "mjpiper at ozemail.com.au" [mjpiper at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
X-IPAddress: 203.26.177.2
X-SessionId: cvstv8uh.wmk
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2000 23:38:15 "GMT"
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Subject: aus-wx: Tornado Warnings on the Net
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Hi Paul,
Go to http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
There you can access details on the latest watches and warnings for the USA. There is also convective outlooks there as well.
Matthew Piper
__________________________________________________________
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011
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadic outbreak in the States
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 10:56:43 +1100 (EST)
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>
> Harald Richter wrote:
> >
> > Hi folks,
> >
> > The current count is 12+ tornadoes and
> > 24+ dead, mainly in SW Georgia. It is the old
> > never-ending story of most deaths apparently occuring
> > in a mobile home park near Camilla [spelling?] GA.
> >
> > The event was pretty well anticipated as
> > a procouncerd upper-level trough raced through the
> > area, doing all the things procounced upper-level
> > troughs do with high dewpoints near the surface.
> >
>
> When I saw this post, it sent a chill through my bones.
> I feel that it is only a matter of time and with global
> warming moving more severe weather in Sydney's direction
> by virtue of the collision between increasing hot-N, a
> moist NE feed and cold SW/S/SE air. Similar words will
> spread over this list in the future, perhaps within the
> next 10-15 years or earlie, concerning areas in the
> Sydney basin.
>
As I think has been mentioned before, 41 deaths in the last century
have been attributed to tornadoes in Australia (although 15 of those
were in a plane crash which was probably a consequence of the
tornadic thunderstorm rather than the tornado itself), so it isn't
exactly unknown (not that most Australians would be able to tell you
that). A repeat of, say, the Bulahdelah storm of 1970 in a populated
area would be a serious matter indeed.
Blair Trewin
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012
From: Harald Richter [hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadic outbreak in the States (fwd)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2000 18:08:18 -0600 (CST)
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Hi Michael and ASWA,
> When I saw this post, it sent a chill through my bones.
> I feel that it is only a matter of time and with global
> warming moving more severe weather in Sydney's direction
> by virtue of the collision between increasing hot-N, a
> moist NE feed and cold SW/S/SE air. Similar words will
> spread over this list in the future, perhaps within the
> next 10-15 years or earlie, concerning areas in the
> Sydney basin.
I am not so sure that global warming per se is going
to increase/decrease the amount of severe weather in
Sydney. We can speculate that *ultimately* warming
of the earth's troposphere would enlarge the tropical
regions. In the "enlarged" tropics baroclinic effects come
at a premium, and hence the shear profile needed
for severe convection will be absent. I am
somewhat more concerned about the amplitudes of
droughts and/or bushfires.
>
> My sincere sympathies to those affected in the USA...
>
> Any word Les or Harald, whether advanced warning
> mitigated the loss of life and injury?
The warnings issued (the ones that I saw) seemed to
be timely and abundant, and all day long there was talk of a
major event. In general, people knew in advance.
What difference that made, I don't
know at the moment. One problem in this case was the
fact that the worst tornadoes struck around midnight
(= darkness in a fairly forested area) and that
people *staying* inside their mobile homes
are in a rather bad position w.r.t. survival in a
tornado. Another point is psychology.
Last year my reaction to a tornado *warning* issued
in New York was to look out of the window a bit more
than normal, thinking: the chance of that thing hitting
me is almost nill --- true, but sooner or later
someone goes wrong with such a [silly] attitude
despite the stats.*
Cheers, Harald
* Well, I did leave the house eventually to chase
a decaying supercell in the dark in a semi-urban
area -- also silly.
--
---------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069
ph.: (405) 366-0430
fax: (405) 579-0808
email: hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
---------------------------------------------
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013
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane-wx
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 10:10:38 +1000
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Hi All,
Well, it would seem that summer was in fact, just those 5 glorious days
towards the end of Jan when it was actually hot enough to go swimming.
Summer took one glance at Brisbane yesterday and promptly went on vacation.
On an overcast and partly drizzly day with southerly breezes the Temp
struggled to reach 20C at Mt. Crosby and only remained there for a few
hours, peaking out at 21.0C. This is almost unbelievable for February, and
about 10C below Ipswich average.
I must say that the weather has been below average in just about every
respect since New Year, i.e., Max temps, Min temps, humidity, rainfall and
probably also sunlight hours. More significantly, the kind of precipitation
this summer has been very abnormal. In Brisbane, you expect to get quite a
lot of really tropical weather in summer, i.e., hot steamy mornings followed
by brief intense thundery downpours. I don't recall a single day like this
in this summer season. When it has rained, it has generally been prolonged
light drizzle from huge sheets of stratiform clouds (as per the last two
days for a measly 15.7mm).
I wonder if this suggests something significant about the structure of the
atmosphere this year, and weather (sic) this is related to the distinct
absence of TC's anywhere near the QLD coast. After all the dire predictions
6 months ago re amount of moisture and La Nina, this is quite strange I
think.
John.
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014
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornado Warnings on the Net
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 09:45:10 +0930
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Thanx Matt & Harold.
On my way now...........
Paul.
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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 15:46:05 +1100
015
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Weather & Global Warming: Was ...
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..."Re: aus-wx: Tornadic outbreak in the States (fwd)"
This was the subject of this E-Mail was originally.
I've taken the opportunity to start another thread
stemming from what I (Michael Scollay) wrote on:
Tue, 15 Feb 2000 10:21:39 +1100
> When I saw this post, it sent a chill through my bones.
> I feel that it is only a matter of time and with global
> warming moving more severe weather in Sydney's direction
> by virtue of the collision between increasing hot-N, a
> moist NE feed and cold SW/S/SE air. Similar words will
> spread over this list in the future, perhaps within the
> next 10-15 years or earlier, concerning areas in the
> Sydney basin.
And then Harald Richter wrote on:
Mon, 14 Feb 2000 18:08:18 -0600 (CST)
> I am not so sure that global warming per se is going
> to increase/decrease the amount of severe weather in
> Sydney. We can speculate that *ultimately* warming
> of the earth's troposphere would enlarge the tropical
> regions. In the "enlarged" tropics baroclinic effects
> come at a premium, and hence the shear profile needed
> for severe convection will be absent. I am somewhat
> more concerned about the amplitudes of droughts and/or
> bushfires.
With "Leslie R. Lemon" futher adding on:
Mon, 14 Feb 2000 22:20:40 -0500:
> If global warming induced by man were to actually be
> occurring, the models predict the majority of warming
> would be in mid levels of the atmosphere...That would
> produce decreased instability or increased stability and
> less precip and storms. In fact, what the latest data
> from the Satellites show is a very small warming of the
> earths surface (0.1 to 0.2 degrees C per decade) with NO
> appreciable warming in mid levels. Thus, it is anything
> but certain that what we are observing is man made or a
> natural variation in climate.
Les, Harald & others,
There is a risk that this discussion could go on ad-infinitum.
I love it since climatology is one of my favourite topics and
along with that goes taking some long shots at what the weather
will do into the future.
I'm still taking stock of what the CSIRO has produced here in
what is possibly one of the most advanced models aimed at
predicting the impact of global warming at a regional level.
See: http://www.dar.csiro.au/res/cm/ and follow some links.
But I am what they call "a doubting Thomas". While I
acknowledge that our beloved and only planet is warming up,
I just can't get a feel for what that will do to our weather.
If I may throw some petrol (gas) on the global warming fire...
1) Will increased melting of southern polar ice sheets alter
the fundamental nature of the Antartic Circumpolar Current?
I am yet to see a model that factors this into account.
2) Having altered the ACC, will this also change the
fundamental nature of the Southern Oscillation? An increased
supply of colder water should help to maintain the upwelling
of cold water - the La Niña phase instead of El Niño. I
know Dr. David Jones has some opinions here.
3) Both 1) and 2) shifts the balance of circulatory ocean
currents world-wide. What other anomalies can be expected?
A warm-anomaly in the eastern Indian Ocean? Strengthening
or weakening of the Gulf Stream? etc.
4) Recent research into abyssal ocean water in many places
shows a very disturbing rise in temperature (see CLIVAR).
This water is of an immense volume, so a very small rise
(<0.2C) is very significant. When this heat-sink begins
to upwell, what will that do to the surface circulatory
patterns and the net supply of moisture?
I have more fuel, but I'll save that for later...But I
just don't know what to expect - too many variables, let
alone make a reasonable call on severe weather potential
for any particular region aside from a guess, but I hasten
to add that as you heat something up, so the entropy rises
and by definition, this becomes more disorganised...Our
planet's weather will find ways of striking a balance
and this means shifting more energy between the equator
(heat source) and the poles (heat sink) via any transport
available being mainly the oceans and atmosphere. God only
knows what that will result in terms of our weather. Put
it down to "gut-feel" if you like, but severe storms are
a great way of moving energy around so I don't think our
weather will become more mundane at all, just the opposite,
I would expect.
As for the origins of global-warming. Well, the CO2
increases over a 300 000 year-old high of 300 ppm to 360
ppm today are definently man-made. Contributory heating
effect is probably some percentage of the total with the
rest being what might be occuring naturally, but there
is one thing happening for sure regardless of who or what
is responsible...It's getting hotter right here on Earth,
no doubt about it at all.
And bush-fires with droughts? "I love a sunburnt country,
a land of sweeping plains, of rugged mountain ranges and
droughts with flooding rains..." classic words written
over a century ago that have encapsulated what to expect
from Australia's climate. We'll get more El Niños yet
and with it some incredible bush fires of the likes that
history shows came but once a century. This is particularly
so after a wetter-than-average period. The issue as I
see it is "Can we Australians cope with certain climate
change brought about by global-warming and the regional
effects resulting?". I think it will be challenging...
P.S. Brisbanites might disagree with "global warming"
given this summer, but this a regional effect that will
change. Predicting "when" is a task at hand.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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016
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 14:51:11 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadic outbreak in the States (fwd)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Les...
Why would the models be predicting mid level warmimng in your opinion?
Don White
"Leslie R. Lemon" wrote:
>
> If global warming induced by man were to actually be occurring, the models
> predict the majority of warming would be in mid levels of the atmosphere..
> That would produce decreased instability or increased stability and less
> precip and storms. In fact, what the latest data from the Satellites show
> is a very small warming of the earths surface (0.1 to 0.2 degrees C per
> decade) with NO appreciable warming in mid levels. Thus, it is anything
> but certain that what we are observing is man made or a natural variation
> in climate.
>
> Les
>
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Phone: 816-373-3533
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>
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017
X-Originating-IP: [203.25.186.102]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Global Warming?
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 17:31:47 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Les,
I'm okay with the idea of global surface warming being well documented but
I'm less sure about mid- or even upper-level warming.
Unless I'm way off mark surface measurements of temperature have been both
widespread and have a relatively long history (quite long if we draw a long
bow and include ice-cores, tree-rings etc...) but I doubt consistent
widespread measurements of mid or upper-level temperatures have been taken
for long enough to draw any conclusion, models notwithstanding.
So...my question is basically, have we enough upper and mid level data to
say that there is no corresponding (albeit perhaps lagged) changes in these
levels?
Curiously,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
______________________________________________________
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018
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 01:46:08 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadic outbreak in the States (fwd)
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id BAA02687
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I am no expert by any means. But, off the top of my head, it may be that
with increasing green house gas concentration, these gases would absorb the
earth's long wave radiation and warm the atmosphere. Much of the gas would
occupy the troposphere, with the bulk of the gases mixed upward into the
mid-levels owing to convection and the convective currents. (Sounds like
weak reasoning to me! LOL)
Les.
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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019
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 01:58:48 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Global Warming?
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id CAA03927
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I was in Huntsville, AL last week at a NASA lab and spoke to one of the
leading climatologists who essentially designed and "own" the
climatological satellites. In order to make sure I was correct, I asked
him about the mid-level warming, which he confirmed. While there, he came
into the office I was in and discussed with the three of us there, his
latest results which they were just obtaining from the "birds". Those
results were what I relayed here. But, as I said, I am no authority AT
ALL. I have spent 30 years in radar and severe storms but not climate
variation.
I do wish I could help more.....
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
020
From: "Paul Yole" [raptor at mail.satway.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Satellite pix...
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 10:35:08 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600
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Thanks Kevin,
Never knew of this site, and it has now become a fav bookmark.
Paul Yole
----- Original Message -----
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Wednesday, February 16, 2000 1:37 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Satellite pix...
> Hi every1,
>
> I'm sure this is old news but the following site
>
> http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/satellite.html
>
> allows you to view the Earth from any satellite currently on their list!
>
> Happy viewing!
>
> Cheers,
> Kevin from Wycheproof.
> ______________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
021
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2000 22:20:40 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadic outbreak in the States (fwd)
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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If global warming induced by man were to actually be occurring, the models
predict the majority of warming would be in mid levels of the atmosphere..
That would produce decreased instability or increased stability and less
precip and storms. In fact, what the latest data from the Satellites show
is a very small warming of the earths surface (0.1 to 0.2 degrees C per
decade) with NO appreciable warming in mid levels. Thus, it is anything
but certain that what we are observing is man made or a natural variation
in climate.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
022
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2000 22:24:57 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadic outbreak in the States
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Warnings were very good. 39 minute, 42 minute, and 59 minute lead times
before the tornado occurrences. These what we got off the web this
afternoon.
Les.
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
023
From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 20:00:29 +0930
Subject: aus-wx: Monsoon keeps delivering................
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Howdy all.
Well - it is still peltin down here. Had over 50mm during the day
from big fat wafting showers associated with squally winds. Dark
ragged squall lines sweep in off the sea on the seabreeze dumping
their load and almost dissolving right before your eyes!
Love it.....sorry you weather starved Southerners....... I hope you
turn on some decent storms for me next week!
Hope some of you get to come out - be good to catch up with
some of you.
Paul in darwin
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
024
From: "Anthony Spierings" [as029 at powerup.com.au]
To: "Aussie-Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: BNE - How far away is Winter?
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 20:40:14 +1000
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Hello aus-wx
Is it just me or am I going nuts?
I got off the train this evening and it felt like a late autumn afternoon –
in the middle of February. I know that it is not that cold or bleak. Just
the way the wind was blowing, the way the wind “felt”, the scents in the
air, even the way some of the plants are looking. It was weird.
Normally, by the middle of February Brisbanites are starting get irritable.
Lack of sleep during the hot, sticky nights. Yesterday I had to put my Ugh
boots on cause my tootsies were cold (scary image I know). It will be
interesting to see if we get one final hot blast before autumn officially
sets in.
Regards,
Anthony Spierings
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
025
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 21:43:20 +1100
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dry week for SE Australia
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That's happening to me as well (ie brown grass)..only 1.0mm this
month..driest so far on record (previous 1965)..and the drought index
passed 130 last week. Should indicate an improving chance of a wet
March.
Michael Thompson wrote:
>
> Most of the models are now showing a dry spell until at the weekend.
> However, we have had our first decent rain in 3-4 weeks today in the
> southern Illawarra with several light - moderate showers. The AVN and NGP
> models did not pick this at all.
>
> The rain was needed desperately as my lawn was very brown.
>
> Michael
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Blair Trewin
> To:
> Sent: Monday, 14 February 2000 10:33
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Private wx forecasts...
>
> > >
> > > Hi every1,
> > >
> > > While talking to an employee of a feed-lot just south of here he
> mentioned
> > > that they paid big bucks for a private weather forecaster (based in
> Perth I
> > > believe!)
> > >
> > > Said forecaster told him to expect between 15 and 50 mm. Monday/Tuesday.
> > >
> > > I can't see it here myself...I'd have said some thunderies
> Tuesday/Wednesday
> > > but only NOGAPS has anything like a rain event happening near here all
> week.
> > It was looking like a possibility a few days ago, but it seems
> > increasingly apparent that the central Australian moisture is not
> > going to move south. GASP has no precipitation at all in SE Australia
> > until the next change goes through on Friday/Saturday.
> >
> > With another week of maxima close to or over 30, Melbourne may be
> > starting to threaten records for highest February mean maxima; if
> > the forecast is correct we'll be sitting on a mean of about 30.5,
> > above the existing record, as of about the 19th. The minimum
> > (currently 16.8) is well behind the 1997 mark of 18.6, though. This
> > will be the fourth consecutive February with temperatures very much
> > above average (unless something dramatic happens in the last 10 days
> > of the month); the mean maxima in 1997 (30.1, 2nd highest on record),
> > 1998 (27.9, 14th) and 1999 (28.4, 7th) were all in the top 10% of
> > readings, and 1997 (18.6, 1st) and 1999 (17.3, 4th) also had very
> > warm mean minima.
> >
> > Noticed on the 'year to date' percentage plot on the Bureau's climate
> > maps web page that we now have our first patch which has already
> > received its annual mean rainfall - not bad for February 12!
> >
> > Blair Trewin
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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026
From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 21:13:43 +0930
Subject: aus-wx: Obs. query
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0100,0100,0100Hi all.
Anyone know where this place is? Check out the max wind gust - 160 Knots!!!!!!!
Times New RomanYNEN YNEN 0215 1129 28026G160KT 29.0/23.0 Q1009.8 ///////
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| Document: 000215.htm
Updated: 05 March 2000 |
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