Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Wednesday, 16 February 2000

From Subject -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 001 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] BNE - How far away is Winter? 002 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Chilly Weather 003 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Chilly Weather 004 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] BNE - How far away is Winter? 005 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Chilly Weather 006 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Temperature outlooks now on web 007 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Satellite Pic Loops 008 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Boring weather lately .......... 009 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] BNE - How far away is Winter? 010 Miguel de Salas [mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au Boring weather lately .......... 011 "Jason & Keith" [kevans at kisser.net.au] 5th TC of the WA season Forms: TC Marcia 012 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Boring weather lately ../ check out these storms 013 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Boring weather lately ../ check out these storms 014 Miguel de Salas [mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au Boring weather lately ../ check out these storms 015 "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au] mid and upper level observations. 016 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Boring weather lately ../ check out these storms 017 paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Wet....... 018 Jane ONeill [cadence at rubix.net.au] Help - 2 computer user queries 019 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Fwd: question about earthquake clouds -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 001 From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Subject: Re: aus-wx: BNE - How far away is Winter? To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 10:16:29 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > Hello aus-wx > > Is it just me or am I going nuts? > > I got off the train this evening and it felt like a late autumn afternoon � > in the middle of February. I know that it is not that cold or bleak. Just > the way the wind was blowing, the way the wind �felt�, the scents in the > air, even the way some of the plants are looking. It was weird. > > Normally, by the middle of February Brisbanites are starting get irritable. > Lack of sleep during the hot, sticky nights. Yesterday I had to put my Ugh > boots on cause my tootsies were cold (scary image I know). It will be > interesting to see if we get one final hot blast before autumn officially > sets in. Come to sunny Melbourne! The February mean max is currently sitting at 30.0, and the most recent GASP run suggests at least 6, and possibly 7, of the next 8 days will be over 30. The record of 30.2 is now in real danger. Brisbane Airport's mean max for February is currently sitting at 28.1, 0.8 below average - not exactly warm, but by no means in record territory. The big anomalies have been further inland. Blair Trewin (who would quite happily export a +4.5 degree maximum temperature anomaly to Queensland if they want it) +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 002 Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 15:39:49 -0800 From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Chilly Weather Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com You mean, "A lot of those winter/maritime/cold cells..." Lindsay Pearce Matt Smith wrote: > > > >Might have to start wearing a jumper. :-) > > > Been wearing a jumper and long pants since yesterday, storm season has been > pretty bad this year.. like last year.. i guess our hopes now are for a > storm or 10 in autumn (yeah right!) and then next season (I hope!) > .. and a few of those winter/maritime/cold cells in between, yuck > *Sigh* > > Matt Smith > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 003 Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 15:37:29 -0800 From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Chilly Weather Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Blair, Did you end up getting the final value for Monday at Katoomba? It was definately slightly cooler here in Blackheath on Monday than Sunday but Katoomba might be a different story. Still, I'd be interested to see if Katoomba's Monday reading was maybe a touch cooler than Sunday's 11.4. Today (Tuesday) it finally heated up here, its 14.5 at 3:40pm. Lindsay Pearce > Somewhat to my surprise, the Katoomba record is a relatively modest > 11.0 (16/2/1966), although that only covers the digital record post- > 1957 and I'd expect that it would have been colder in 1949, for example. > Sunday ended up coming in at 11.4; we won't have a final value for > today until 9 tomorrow (and in this type of situation there would > have to be a fair chance of it getting warmer than 11 tomorrow morning). > > Blair Trewin > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 004 From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: RE: aus-wx: BNE - How far away is Winter? Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 11:14:14 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Blair, Yes please, right now +4.5 is about what we need to get somewhere near average. Yesterday did not reach 25C at Mt. Crosby (around 40k's inland from Brisbane airport), and today is back in the low 20's so far with 8/8 cover, largely stratiform once again! PLEASE BRING BACK OUR SUMMER!!!! It was nice for the 5 days when we had it. John. >snip Come to sunny Melbourne! The February mean max is currently sitting at 30.0, and the most recent GASP run suggests at least 6, and possibly 7, of the next 8 days will be over 30. The record of 30.2 is now in real danger. Brisbane Airport's mean max for February is currently sitting at 28.1, 0.8 below average - not exactly warm, but by no means in record territory. The big anomalies have been further inland. Blair Trewin (who would quite happily export a +4.5 degree maximum temperature anomaly to Queensland if they want it) +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 005 From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Chilly Weather To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 12:23:02 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > Blair, > > Did you end up getting the final value for Monday at Katoomba? It was > definately slightly cooler here in Blackheath on Monday than Sunday but > Katoomba might be a different story. > > Still, I'd be interested to see if Katoomba's Monday reading was maybe a > touch cooler than Sunday's 11.4. > It was, but not by enough. 11.2. The weekend looks like it has the potential to be highly interesting (especially in Victoria). Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 006 From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Subject: aus-wx: Temperature outlooks now on web To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 12:48:38 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Readers of this list may be interested to know that the Bureau is now issuing a seasonal temperature outlook (in addition to its existing rainfall outlook). Both may be found on: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ In summary, the forecast is for a warm autumn (both max and min) in much of WA, cool days but warm nights in Queensland (and northern NSW). Most of the forecast skill at this time of year is in northern Australia. We'll know the forecast is having an impact if and when a forecast gets issued for below-average summer temperatures and electricity futures promptly get trashed on the financial markets :-) (the Electricity Trust of SA is rumoured to have taken a bath to the tune of something like $40 million this month as a result of committing to buy too much of its power on the spot market). Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 007 From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Satellite Pic Loops Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 11:52:29 +0930 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id VAA07639 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi there all. Anyone know of a great, fast site to get sat pic loops? Thanx in advance. Paul. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 008 From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Boring weather lately .......... Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 12:41:29 +0930 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id WAA15130 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all. Since that everyone else has had boring weather I may as well tell you about mine! It is throwing it down here atm (12.20pm) and has been for 3 or 4 hours. Interested to see some rain totals later. After last nights 53mm this takes the 4 day total to close to 250mm (--> 9am Sat 113 --> 9am Sun 23 --> 9am Mon 54mm --> 9am Tues 18mm --> 9am Wed 53mm / total 261mm I am unable to get the total at darwin to date - seems the AWS is mucking up. But its still throwing down. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 009 X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 13:48:35 +0930 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Subject: Re: aus-wx: BNE - How far away is Winter? X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id WAA15766 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Hello aus-wx > >Is it just me or am I going nuts? > >I got off the train this evening and it felt like a late autumn afternoon � >in the middle of February. I know that it is not that cold or bleak. Just >the way the wind was blowing, the way the wind �felt�, the scents in the >air, even the way some of the plants are looking. It was weird. > >Normally, by the middle of February Brisbanites are starting get irritable. >Lack of sleep during the hot, sticky nights. Yesterday I had to put my Ugh >boots on cause my tootsies were cold (scary image I know). It will be >interesting to see if we get one final hot blast before autumn officially >sets in. > >Regards, > >Anthony Spierings Sure doesn't feel like autumn in Adelaide. Didn't feel like it in Melbourne last week either! Phil 'Paisley' Bagust paisley at cobweb.com.au http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 010 X-Sender: mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 14:40:36 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Miguel de Salas [mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Boring weather lately .......... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 12:41 PM 16-02-2000 +0930, you wrote: >Hi all. Since that everyone else has had boring weather I may as well tell you >about mine! > >It is throwing it down here atm (12.20pm) and has been for 3 or 4 hours. > >Interested to see some rain totals later. > >After last nights 53mm this takes the 4 day total to close to 250mm > >(--> 9am Sat 113 >--> 9am Sun 23 >--> 9am Mon 54mm >--> 9am Tues 18mm >--> 9am Wed 53mm / total 261mm > The Darwin Storm Cam shows nothing but rain and showers! :) Miguel de Salas School of Plant Science, University of Tasmania, PO Box 252-55, Sandy Bay, Hobart Tasmania, Australia, 7001. mailto://mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au My Moths Page: http://members.xoom.com/migueldes/moths/moths.html +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 011 From: "Jason & Keith" [kevans at kisser.net.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: 5th TC of the WA season Forms: TC Marcia Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 11:56:53 +0800 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0322UTC 16 FEBRUARY 2000

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Marcia with central pressure 995 hPa re-located at 0300UTC
within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude fifteen decimal zero south [15.0S]
Longitude one hundred and two decimal zero [102.0E]
and moving south at 3 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Low causing rough to very rough seas, moderate swell and 30/45 knot winds within
90 nautical miles of centre.

FORECAST
At 1500 UTC 16 February 2000. 15.5 south 102.0 east 990hPa
At 0300 UTC 17 February 2000. 16.0 south 102.0 east 985hPa

Next warning issued at 1100 UTC 16 February 2000

WEATHER PERTH

Doesnt look like this one will affect the coast at this stage...

Jason

Karratha WA

http://www.kisser.net.au/kevans/weather/

012 From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Boring weather lately ../ check out these storms Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 13:57:16 +0930 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id XAA26542 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all. Lots of lightning & thunder just passed - building near us got struck and we lost power for 20 - 30 seconds Rain was torrential - now has slowed but more to come Check out these storms http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/STMafrS046_N4.jpg they are beauties! +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 013 Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 16:28:06 +1100 From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au] Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Boring weather lately ../ check out these storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au wrote: > > Check out these storms > http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/STMafrS046_N4.jpg Great site, isn't it?...if you've got the bandwidth for the biggies. On the subject, it's labled NE South Africa Flooding...but what about Botswana? Having been there, it's mostly a hell of desert called the Kalahari with the Okavango Delta up in the NW qandrant and about 5M people on the ground with very few storm chasers and even fewer roads. These NOAA satpic show cells pushing up into the troposphere over SE Botswana with the desert green! Now that is a miracle of sorts. Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 014 X-Sender: mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 16:58:43 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Miguel de Salas [mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Boring weather lately ../ check out these storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 04:28 PM 16-02-2000 +1100, you wrote: >Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au wrote: >> >> Check out these storms >> http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/STMafrS046_N4.jpg > >Great site, isn't it?...if you've got the bandwidth for the biggies. >On the subject, it's labled NE South Africa Flooding...but what about >Botswana? Having been there, it's mostly a hell of desert called the >Kalahari with the Okavango Delta up in the NW qandrant and about 5M >people on the ground with very few storm chasers and even fewer roads. >These NOAA satpic show cells pushing up into the troposphere over SE >Botswana with the desert green! Now that is a miracle of sorts. > >Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au These are either straight or 3 band colour-composite images. If they are the latter and infrared is one of the bands, vegetation would appear red (it reflects a lot of near-infrared radiation). Thus a green desert need not necessarily indicate the presence of vegetation. Else the colour has been added later (as continent outlines are added). Miguel de Salas School of Plant Science, University of Tasmania, PO Box 252-55, Sandy Bay, Hobart Tasmania, Australia, 7001. mailto://mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au My Moths Page: http://members.xoom.com/migueldes/moths/moths.html +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 015 From: "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au] To: "Aussie Weather (E-mail)" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Cc: Subject: aus-wx: mid and upper level observations. Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 16:58:32 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Kevin wrote.. >I'm okay with the idea of global surface warming being well documented but >I'm less sure about mid- or even upper-level warming. >Unless I'm way off mark surface measurements of temperature have been both >widespread and have a relatively long history (quite long if we draw a long >bow and include ice-cores, tree-rings etc...) but I doubt consistent >widespread measurements of mid or upper-level temperatures have been taken >for long enough to draw any conclusion, models notwithstanding. > >So...my question is basically, have we enough upper and mid level data to >say that there is no corresponding (albeit perhaps lagged) changes in these >levels? While I am not an expert, I would contend that we do not have enough reliable mid and upper level data from radiosondes to have a truly reliable picture of temperature trends, nor do we have a sufficiently long period of record. I guess the flip side is that we are usually interested in large space (global) and large time scales (many decades) for climate change detection, so we don't really need a high density of observations, but we do need long reliable records. Anyway, moving away from the "global picture", there are at least three issues here. 1) The networks are extraordinarily spares. For example, there are no radiosonde sites between the south coast of Australia/Tasmania and the Antarctic. Obviously any statements about changes in this (and many other regions) based on sondes must be based on interpolation.. 2) Data records are so short. My understanding is that there were no radiosonde sites in the southern oceans/Antarctic prior to 1956/57. 3) Data is patchy and often of a relatively poor quality. An interesting example of this last point is Australia which has maintained a fairly comprehensive network of upper air sondes. These by and large show a large step-wise warming in 1987 coinciding with a shift from Phillips to Vaisalla radiosondes, amounting to close to 1C at some stations. With a relatively well managed network we are in a position to fully document and correct for these problems, but it is conceivable that for many of the world's radiosondes changes such as this are undocumented or unknown. These systematic errors are compounded by other less obvious issues - for example, I have heard an anecdote about an observer who faked some balloon flights (fabricated numbers) as he was to frightened to venture out at night to do balloon launches. The two most useful alternatives to radiosondes for monitoring temperature variability aloft would seem to me to be glaciological (though strictly glaciers are on the ground) and satellites. Of course one can resort to alpine vegetation etc, but this is not as "straight" forward. Glaciers are extremely valuable in that it is often possible to reconstruct to very high precision the changes in climate variables required to cause a given amount of growth or decay, though obviously you are limited to those regions where glaciers exist - these are remarkably widespread, though we are close to loosing sampling in the tropics in Africa and SE Asia with recent glacier retreats. The glaciological evidence overwhelming point to warming this century, and my understanding is that recent evidence from SE Asia, the Himalayas, South America and Europe all point to this warming continuing (something which is strongly at odds with the view of little recent temperature change). This all leaves satellites and the famous (or infamous) MSU - particularly MSU-2R. The details of MSU are extraordinarily complex (in my view), and I suspect very few users of the MSU data know the issues involved with its use. There are numerous issues with the satellite data, which are often (conveniently or naively neglected), but that said the MSU data appears to be extremely valuable - a real credit to those involved in its generation. A non-exhaustive list of issues are, 1) This is patched from numerous slightly different satellites - from memory close to 10 at last count. I (possibly naively) liken this to using ten different brands of thermometers in your screen over the past 20 years, with only weeks to change from one brand to another, and check associated differences. There is evidence that at least two of the satellite change-overs coincide with discontinuities in the MSU record. 2) Contrary to popular opinion the satellite sampling is far from continuous. At the equator, each point on the 2.5x2.5 degree grid has effectively five observations per month. So one essentially has great spatial coverage (something not provided by the radiosondes) but poor temporal coverage (something provided by the radiosondes). 3) The data only date back to 1979. This means climate change expected to occur on decadal to century scales is trying to be detected over a 21 year period. Because the interannual variability of the global temperature is so large (standard deviations of annual average of MSU ~0.2C, with year to variations as large as 0.5C) it is stretching the statistics to detect a trend of order 0.1-.2 deg/decade from two decades of data. 4) The MSU samples to an extent the stratosphere. It is known without doubt that the stratosphere has cooled over the past 20 years, quite enormously at some locations at some times of year (my understanding is that the decrease is something like 10 degrees in spring over the Antarctic - related to ozone depletion.) These trends are an order of magnitude greater than anything observed in the troposphere, and hence even if the contribution to the satellite data is a very small fraction of the total, it is still conceivable that this contribution is significant. I am unaware of research detailing the exact effect of the stratosphere on the MSU-2R data, though a troubling observation from the MSU data is that it shows an extraordinary cooling trend at Antarctic latitudes which coincides with that region of the globe where ozone depletion and hence temperature changes in the stratosphere are known to have been large. Add to this the sampling issues associated with the 11 year cycle in solar radiation, and the explosive volcanic eruptions of Pinatubo in 1991 and to a lesser extent El Chichon in 1982 and it become obvious that any record of length 20 years should not be used for climate change detection. Anyway, to summarise broadly what the surface records shows as recent trends take a look at, http://www.microtech.com.au/daly/graytemp/surftemp.htm (Figure 3). I caution however, that this is a non-standard period, and does not coincide with the period of MSU record (1979-present). I don't know of any similar figure on the web for MSU-2R but from my own work the difference 1980s to 1990s show, 1) Warming over almost all the entire northern hemisphere, though not as great as observed at the surface. 2) Little change in the tropics. This is inconsistent with the glaciological evidence from Africa, SE Asia, and South America, and surface records. There is probably insufficient radiosondes in this region to support the surface or MSU records. There is evidence that the MSU erroneously cools by some 0.35C in the tropics as a result of two satellite change-overs, though the developers of MSU discount this suggestion. 3) Slight increases in the southern mid latitudes. 4) Large cooling in the high southern latitudes. Overall there has been a warming evident in the MSU-2R of about 0.1 degree since 1979. Anyway just my two cents worth. I think the most informed opinion on the matter is that espoused by the conservative IPCC that "the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernable human impact on climate". The million dollar question is how big... Regards, David. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 016 From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Boring weather lately ../ check out these storms Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 16:59:32 +0930 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id CAA18148 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Have talked to the BOM - they consider todays rain / storm as severe - their esxperimental rain measuring program has measured more then 100mm in 2 hours over considerable areas of the Darwin region. Noted the Darwin Airport AWS recorded over 80mm (before the Office at the Airport was struck by lightning and communications went down....) Going home now to see the damage! Paul +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 017 From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 17:28:29 +0930 Subject: aus-wx: Wet....... X-mailer: Pegasus Mail for Win32 (v3.12a) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey all. quick update - 106mm at my place since 9am. And it is still raining.......... Paul in darwin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 018 Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 22:05:28 +1100 From: Jane ONeill [cadence at rubix.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win95; I) To: Aussie-wx [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Help - 2 computer user queries Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Ok, I need some help from the rather more expert of you out there - I've tried and failed...and failed....and failed....... I need to make a gif transparent & have the following programs to work with: Paint Shop Pro 5 iPhotoPlus4 Adobe Photoshop 4 how do you do it??? (moron proof instructions greatly appreciated) and the other thing I just can't do with the Paintshop Pro Animation Wizard is to take a radar loop, separate it into its component frames & then save each frame as a separate image ...I can see them, I can print them, but I can't save them....... A million thanks for your help with this one to all 170 or so of you!!! Jane ONeill ASWA - Victoria PS: I've updated the humour page if you want a bit of a giggle.. http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/humour.htm ..pick the mistake in the cartoon.. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 019 X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.2 Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 22:15:14 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: question about earthquake clouds Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com There is always a hard question to answer coming from a site. See below Jimmy Deguara >Delivered-To: jdeguara at j.pop.ihug.com.au >From: "David Mitchell" >To: >Subject: question about earthquake clouds >Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2000 01:56:13 -0800 >X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.5 > >Dear Jimmy Deguara, > >Hello. My name's David Mitchell, I'm a British writer living in Japan. I >occasionally use to your excellent cloud page as a reference tool. > >I'm writing a novel set in Japan, where it is sometimes said a particular >cloud formation preceds major earthquakes. I would like to ask if you know >whether this has any meteorological basis, or if it is old wives' stuff? > >If you could find the time to respond to this e-mail, I'd be most grateful - >but no offence if not. > >Regards, > >David Mitchell +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------