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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Sunday, 5 March 2000 |
From Subject
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001 Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au] Ex TC Steve update # 17
002 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Steve map animation updated #17
003 Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au] Ex Steve update #18, it's back on the coast
004 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Steve animation update #18 - crossing coast near Broome
005 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Steve animation update #19
006 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Storm Chase
007 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Storm Chase
008 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Storm Chase
009 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Severe Hailstorm Near Lithgow
010 Jane ONeill [cadence at rubix.net.au] Only person in Aus not out there
011 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Great Lightning here in Blackheath
012 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] News from 'Cyclone City'!!
013 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Steve officially a Cyclone again
014 Jane ONeill [cadence at rubix.net.au] STA - Central Tablelands
015 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Only person in Aus not out there
016 Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au] IT's TC STEVE AGAIN update #22
017 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Great Lightning here in Blackheath
018 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Steve to come down the west coast?
019 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Steve Cat 1 animation update #22
020 Susan Puddifer [susanpud at healey.com.au] Sydney Storms
021 Susan Puddifer [susanpud at healey.com.au] Sydney Storms continued
022 "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au] Severe Hailstorm Near Lithgow
023 steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au] SE QLD weather
024 David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au] Sydney Storms
025 "Adam Mayo" [oyam at bigpond.com] Sydney Storms
026 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Steve to come down the west coast?
027 "Patrick Tobin" [patricktobin at ozemail.com.au] Steve to come down the west coast?
028 David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au] Bathurst
029 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Severe Hailstorm Near Lithgow
030 "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au] Severe Hailstorm Near Lithgow
031 David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au] Lithgow Storms - Hail
032 Jane ONeill [cadence at rubix.net.au] STA No 2
033 "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au] Hunter takes the Cake...again. STA time!
034 Jane ONeill [cadence at rubix.net.au] Ulladulla streaming cam
035 Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au] TC STEVE update #23 Cat 1/2 system
036 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] #Weather Footy Tips Comp - Reminder
037 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Steve Cat 1 animation update #23
038 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Todays Chase
039 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Great Taralga Chase ( and Illawarra fails again )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
Date: Sat, 04 Mar 2000 22:24:37 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Ex TC Steve update # 17
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
IDW50W05
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 10:00 pm WST on Saturday, 4 March 2000
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is current for the coastal areas between
COCKATOO
ISLAND and LA GRANGE/BIDYADANGA. A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to
Karratha.
At 9 pm WST a tropical low [ex-Steve] was located 140 kilometres west of
Derby
and 65 kilometres north of Broome moving west southwest at 20
kilometres per
hour. The low is expected to move out to sea to the north of Broome this
evening
and re-develop into a tropical cyclone.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop
tonight in
coastal areas between Cockatoo Island and La Grange/Bidyadanga.
Heavy rain is expected to cause widespread flooding of the low-lying
areas in
the north and west Kimberley region tonight and tomorrow.
Details of the tropical low [ex-Steve] at 9pm WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 17.4 South Longtitude 122.3 East.
Recent movement : west southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 992 hPa.
Wind gusts : increasing to 100 kilometres per hour tonight.
Severity category : becoming Category 1 overnight
The WA State Emergency Service advises of the following community
alerts:
Blue alert: Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island, One Arm Point, Cape
Leveque,
Djarindjin, Lombadina, Beagle Bay, Broome and Bidyadanga.
The next warning will be issued at 1:00 am WST.
This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
002
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 00:45:29 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Steve map animation updated #17
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
TC Steve map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SteveWAanim.htm updated to BoM #17.
Steve is about to cross the coast just N of Broome.
Conditions seem to be right for a rapid intensification.
Hope you lads at Karratha are ready for another blow, as it looks to me
like it will pass just a little to the N of you if it stays on it's current
track.
Also, TC Gloria is near the W coast of Central Madagascar and JTWC are
forcasting it will be close to the coast of southern Mozambique in about 72
hours.
Latest BoM and JTWC warnings pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
IDW50W05
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 10:00 pm WST on Saturday, 4 March 2000
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is current for the coastal areas between COCKATOO
ISLAND and LA GRANGE/BIDYADANGA. A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to Karratha.
At 9 pm WST a tropical low [ex-Steve] was located 140 kilometres west of Derby
and 65 kilometres north of Broome moving west southwest at 20 kilometres per
hour. The low is expected to move out to sea to the north of Broome this
evening
and re-develop into a tropical cyclone.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop tonight in
coastal areas between Cockatoo Island and La Grange/Bidyadanga.
Heavy rain is expected to cause widespread flooding of the low-lying areas in
the north and west Kimberley region tonight and tomorrow.
Details of the tropical low [ex-Steve] at 9pm WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 17.4 South Longtitude 122.3 East.
Recent movement : west southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 992 hPa.
Wind gusts : increasing to 100 kilometres per hour tonight.
Severity category : becoming Category 1 overnight
The WA State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
Blue alert: Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island, One Arm Point, Cape Leveque,
Djarindjin, Lombadina, Beagle Bay, Broome and Bidyadanga.
The next warning will be issued at 1:00 am WST.
This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.
835
WTXS35 PGTW 041500
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 016
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 17.3S1 122.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 122.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 17.7S5 120.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 18.3S2 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.1S1 116.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 20.0S2 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 22.7S1 109.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 122.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED OVER CENTRAL DAMPIER
LAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM THE BROOME, AUSTRALIA RADAR SHOWS A
DEFINITE ROTATION NORTHEAST OF BROOME. SYNOPTIC DATA ALSO INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL DAMPIER LAND WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTION BAND.
THE 040951Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS NEW
CONVECTION OVER LAND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC WITH INCREASING SPIRAL
CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHWEST. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 14P (STEVE) IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 14P (STEVE) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA. TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL
IT MOVES OVER WATER IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF
THE COAST, TC 14P (STEVE) SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z7 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0),
050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2), 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8) AND 051500Z1 (DTG
051351Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
263
WTXS31 PGTW 041500
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 017
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 19.2S2 44.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 44.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 19.8S8 43.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 20.4S6 41.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 21.1S4 40.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 22.0S4 38.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 23.9S4 35.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 44.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER WESTERN CENTRAL MADAGASCAR DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, THE LLCC HAS REMAINED DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 15S IS UNDER WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 15S
(GLORIA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR AFTERWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, AND WITHIN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z7 (DTG 041953Z2), 050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4), 050900Z4 (DTG
050753Z0) AND 051500Z1 (DTG 051353Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
carls at ace-net.com.au
Cyclone Tracking Maps Website:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information Page:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
003
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 01:05:49 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Ex Steve update #18, it's back on the coast
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sorry about another email ppl's but Ex steve is on the Coast atm
according to the BoM.
MJ.
IDW50W05
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 1:00 am WST on Sunday, 5 March 2000
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is current for the coastal areas between
COCKATOO
ISLAND and LA GRANGE/BIDYADANGA. A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to
Karratha.
At Midnight WST a tropical low [ex-Steve] was located 155 kilometres
westsouthwest of Derby and 30 kilometres north of Broome moving west
southwest
at 15 kilometres per hour. The low is on the coast and expected to move
out to
sea to the north of Broome this morning and re-develop into a tropical
cyclone.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop
today in
coastal areas between Cockatoo Island and La Grange/Bidyadanga.
Heavy rain is expected to cause widespread flooding of the low-lying
areas in
the north and west Kimberley region today.
Details of the tropical low [ex-Steve] at Midnight WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 17.7 South Longtitude 122.2 East.
Recent movement : west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 992 hPa.
Wind gusts : increasing to 100 kilometres per hour today.
Severity category : becoming Category 1 during the morning.
The WA State Emergency Service advises of the following community
alerts:
Blue alert: Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island, One Arm Point, Cape
Leveque,
Djarindjin, Lombadina, Beagle Bay, Broome and Bidyadanga.
The next warning will be issued at 4:00 am WST.
This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
004
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 04:21:27 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Steve animation update #18 - crossing coast near Broome
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
TC Steve map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SteveWAanim.htm updated to BoM #18.
Steve is currently crossing the coast just N of Broome. It's forward
motion has slowed considerably (from 28 to 15 km/hr over the last 3
warnings), and unless it runs right along the coast, it should soon start
to intensify.
My guess is that with less forward motion, once it gets a little further
from the coast it will intensify very quickly.
If any of you at aus-wx are wondering why I have often been in the habit of
referring to it as TC Steve instead of ex-TC Steve, my update emails are
also usually sent to an international group of TC enthusiests, and as JTWC
has had Steve at TC strength continuously since well before it left the
Northern Territory, and if either JTWC or the BoM are referring to a system
as such, I am accustomed to thinking of it that way.
The same applied to TC Marcia off WA a few weeks ago which was TC strength
by BoM standards and not by JTWC standards.
I hope my habit is not too confusing for anyone who is used to thinking in
purely local terms.
Regards,
Carl.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
005
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 07:03:49 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Steve animation update #19
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
TC Steve map animation at http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SteveWAanim.htm
updated to BoM #19.
Steve has moved further from the coast near Broome, and the Central
Pressure has dropped 2 hPa, so intensification is starting to occur, and it
should be of BoM TC intensity soon.
On it's present track it appears it will hug the coast, and as it develops
may pose a threat to the Pilbara region.
If stays quite close to the coast, this may inhibit development somewhat,
however it may not have to move much further offshore for significant fast
development to occur.
Latest BoM and JTWC warnings below.
Regards,
Carl.
IDW50W05
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 4:10 am WST on Sunday, 5 March 2000
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is current for the coastal areas between CAPE
LEVEQUE
and PORT HEDLAND. A CYCLONE WATCH now extends west to Exmouth. The cyclone
warning between Cockatoo Island and Cape Leveque has been cancelled.
At 3am WST a tropical low [ex-Steve] was located 50 kilometres westnorthwest of
Broome and 435 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland moving west southwest at 18
kilometres per hour. The low is expected to deepen into a tropical cyclone in
the next few hours.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop today in
coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Wallal and develop late today or tonight
between Wallal and Port Hedland.
Heavy rain is expected to cause widespread flooding of the low-lying areas in
the north and west Kimberley region today.
Details of the tropical low [ex-Steve] at 3am WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 17.8 South Longitude 121.8 East.
Recent movement : west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 990 hPa.
Wind gusts : increasing to 100 kilometres per hour today.
Severity category : becoming Category 1 during the morning.
The WA State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
Blue alert: One Arm Point, Cape Leveque, Djarindjin, Lombadina, Beagle Bay,
Broome, Bidyadanga, Eighty Mile Beach, Pardoo, Sandfire and Wallal.
The next warning will be issued at 7:00 am WST.
This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.
050
WTXS35 PGTW 042100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 017
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 17.4S2 122.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 122.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 18.0S9 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 18.7S6 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.2S2 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.2S4 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 22.9S3 109.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 121.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED OVER THE DAMPIER LAND
COAST, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND RECENT
BROOME, AUSTRALIA RADAR LOOP INDICATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM
PENDER BAY SOUTHEAST TO DERBY THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS DAMPIER LAND TO
THE COAST NEAR BROOME. MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN
AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
EAST OF TC 14P. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 14P (STEVE) TO TAKE A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC 14P SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. TC 14P (STEVE) SHOULD INTENSIFY
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2), 050900Z4 (DTG
050751Z8), 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5) AND 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001
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006
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Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 09:26:22 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chase
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Ahhh its that time again :D
Myself and James Harris, and maybe a friend of his, will be chasing
towards Bathurst today. Although the SW also looked very tempting in the
models, (Towards Goulburn/Bowral), we decided to head to Bathurst and
cover any storms which develope there, as no doubt other Sydney people
will be chasing down that way (i hope!).
Cloud cover is the main concern, although there is a clearing trend,
which should see storms develope this arvo across the whole area.
Any updates would be most appreciated
My Mobile : 0407 069 693
James' Mobile : 0414 141 191
Good luck to all!
Matthew Smith
-----Thunderstruck - Storm Chasing in
Australia -----
http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm/thunderstruck/index.htm
----Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA )----
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
007
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm Chase
Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 10:37:23 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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We just had a single rumble of thunder here in Southern Illawarra ( 9.45am
), brief rain, all out to seas now !
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From:
Matt
Smith
Sent: Sunday, 5 March 2000 8:26
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chase
Ahhh its that time again :D
Myself and James Harris, and
maybe a friend of his, will be chasing towards Bathurst today. Although the SW
also looked very tempting in the models, (Towards Goulburn/Bowral), we decided
to head to Bathurst and cover any storms which develope there, as no doubt
other Sydney people will be chasing down that way (i hope!).
Cloud
cover is the main concern, although there is a clearing trend, which should
see storms develope this arvo across the whole area.
Any updates would be
most appreciated
My Mobile : 0407 069 693
James' Mobile : 0414 141
191
Good luck to all!
Matthew Smith
-----Thunderstruck
- Storm Chasing in
Australia-----
http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm/thunderstruck/index.htm
----Australian
Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)----
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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008
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Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 10:33:45 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chase
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi,
Mario, Geoff and I (Jimmy) are heading west to Lithgow Oberon or Bathurst
region. For those who are interested and you want to know what is going on,
you could catch us on:
0408020468 Jimmy Deguara
0409924338 Mario
Cheers
Jimmy Deguara
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009
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 13:10:00 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Hailstorm Near Lithgow
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all!
Matthew Smith and James Harris just phoned me, they're getting 2cm hail
in Lithgow (1pm EST/2pm EDT)!!! However, they can't report it to the
BoM because the NSW storm spotter line does not allow calls from mobiles
(one of the most unintelligent moves I've ever known...), and also I
can't call them, as they don't allow interstate calls to the spotter
line!!! I had to phone Michael Thompson to ask him to phone the spotter
line to report it!!!
Talk about mucking around just to report something!
None the less, a nice cluster of storms west of Syndey, two are in the
pink (near Lithgow, and WSW of Lithgow).
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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010
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 14:27:08 +1100
From: Jane ONeill [cadence at rubix.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win95; I)
To: Aussie-wx [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Only person in Aus not out there
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi chasers,
Now Anthony's gone chasing in Brisbane, I get the feeling I'm the only
person sitting in front of a computer in the world.....
however, while I'm here I'm saving loops for you - so when you get back
if you want a Sydney broad or local, or a Wagga broad or a Brisbane
broad or local I may be able to help you out.
Lotsa luck guys!!!!!
Jane ONeill
ASWA - Victoria
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011
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 11:29:14 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Great Lightning here in Blackheath
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Sunday 3:07pm
Wow! It's been a while but I just saw, (I was out in the back yard -
protected area, working on my St. Screen) a great CC, I think.
It spread out across the bottom of the clouds like a spider web and lit
up the sky and nearly deafened me. It looked incredible, I looked up as
it happened - just amazing.
Moderate then very heavy rain at about 2pm when the storm(s) first hit
but of short duration then moved back to drizzle quite quickly.
Picked a good afternoon to paint my St. Screen. :-)
Lindsay P.
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012
Date: Sat, 04 Mar 2000 12:32:12 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: News from 'Cyclone City'!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Yeah, thanks heaps Desley, great write-up there, had me glued to the
screen (just prying off my eyes now) Glad to see you are okay.
Reminds me of the cyclone warnings we had up that way as a kid, although
I was too young to remember details, except that my uncle lost his
caravan at Yepoon and we'd see the cyclone warnings on the TV.
Lindsay P.
Desley Absolon wrote:
>
> Hi Everyone,
> Would have loved to be in contact sooner...but no power and big mess...meant
> much work first!!!!
> Yep Steve visited us in a big way.. I live in Brinsmead, 10 minutes from the
> Cairns Esplanade and almost directly in behind Yorkeys Knob, and Machans Beach
> on the coast and in an almost direct line with Mareeba on the Atherton
> Tablelands. A local's version of events is as follows:
>
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013
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Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 13:01:16 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Steve officially a Cyclone again
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
IDW50W05
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued at 12:55 pm WST on Sunday, 5 March 2000
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is current for the coastal areas between BROOME and
DAMPIER. A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to Exmouth.
At noon WST tropical cyclone Steve was located 200 kilometres west southwest of
Broome and 285 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland moving west southwest at 18
kilometres per hour.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop today in
coastal areas between Broome and Port Hedland, extending to Dampier overnight.
Heavy rain is expected to cause widespread flooding of the low-lying areas in
the west Kimberley region today extending to the eastern Pilbara overnight.
Details of the tropical cyclone Steve at noon WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 18.4 South Longitude 120.4 East.
Recent movement : west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 988 hPa.
Wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 1
The WA State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
Blue alert: Broome, Bidyadanga, Eighty Mile Beach, Pardoo, Sandfire, Wallal,
Warralong, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Yandeyarra, Whim Creek, Point Samson,
Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.
The next warning will be issued at 4:00 pm WST.
Jacob
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014
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 16:09:30 +1100
From: Jane ONeill [cadence at rubix.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win95; I)
To: Aussie-wx [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: STA - Central Tablelands
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1437 on Sunday the 5th of March 2000
This advice affects people in the following weather district:
Central Tablelands,
Thunderstorms are occuring within the advice area and will continue
during
this afternoon. Some of these are expected to be severe bringing large
hailstones and heavy rainfall.
Hail large enough to damage cars has been reported from Lithgow.
Here we go!!!!!
Jane ONeill
ASWA - Victoria
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
015
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Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 15:42:31 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Only person in Aus not out there
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Your not the only one sitting at home whilst the easterners have fun Jane :)
I think the south has gone back to drought mode for a little while, well
until we find out what TC steve is up to later next week.
At 02:27 PM 5/03/00 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi chasers,
>
>Now Anthony's gone chasing in Brisbane, I get the feeling I'm the only
>person sitting in front of a computer in the world.....
>however, while I'm here I'm saving loops for you - so when you get back
>if you want a Sydney broad or local, or a Wagga broad or a Brisbane
>broad or local I may be able to help you out.
>
>Lotsa luck guys!!!!!
>
>Jane ONeill
>ASWA - Victoria
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Andrew Wall
South Australia.
State representative for S.A. and N.T. Division of the Australian Severe
Weather Association Inc.
Webmaster of The official South Australian Severe Weather watch homepage.
South Australian Severe Weather page - http://sastorms.virtualave.net
ASWA Inc. - http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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016
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 13:09:43 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: IT's TC STEVE AGAIN update #22
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
IDW50W05
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued at 12:55 pm WST on Sunday, 5 March 2000
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is current for the coastal areas between
BROOME and
DAMPIER. A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to Exmouth.
At noon WST tropical cyclone Steve was located 200 kilometres west
southwest of
Broome and 285 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland moving west
southwest at 18
kilometres per hour.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop
today in
coastal areas between Broome and Port Hedland, extending to Dampier
overnight.
Heavy rain is expected to cause widespread flooding of the low-lying
areas in
the west Kimberley region today extending to the eastern Pilbara
overnight.
Details of the tropical cyclone Steve at noon WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 18.4 South Longitude 120.4 East.
Recent movement : west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 988 hPa.
Wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 1
The WA State Emergency Service advises of the following community
alerts:
Blue alert: Broome, Bidyadanga, Eighty Mile Beach, Pardoo, Sandfire,
Wallal,
Warralong, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Yandeyarra, Whim Creek, Point
Samson,
Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.
The next warning will be issued at 4:00 pm WST.
This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.
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017
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Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 15:44:19 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Great Lightning here in Blackheath
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hmmmm sounds like an Avil crawler there :) Great!!!!!!!!!!!!
Any chance there of more storms today???
At 11:29 AM 5/03/00 -0800, you wrote:
>Sunday 3:07pm
>
>Wow! It's been a while but I just saw, (I was out in the back yard -
>protected area, working on my St. Screen) a great CC, I think.
>
>It spread out across the bottom of the clouds like a spider web and lit
>up the sky and nearly deafened me. It looked incredible, I looked up as
>it happened - just amazing.
>
>
>Moderate then very heavy rain at about 2pm when the storm(s) first hit
>but of short duration then moved back to drizzle quite quickly.
>
>Picked a good afternoon to paint my St. Screen. :-)
>
>Lindsay P.
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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018
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Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 13:21:13 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Steve to come down the west coast?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
It could get very interesting here on the west coast later in the week if
Cyclone Steve continues on its current track and then curves.
The MRF and GASP have the system brushing the NW coast, and then moving
south on the west coast, or just inland from the coast, the MRF has it
moving a lot faster though, having it south of Albany by 144hours.
The EC has it curving right around Western Australia, keeping it out to sea
and then pushing its remains well into the Great Australian Bight.
The NGP has none of this, and pretty much keeps it on the same track as
Cyclone Norman did.
If the EC is right, we are then likely to see very hot conditions here in
the lower west coast, gusty NE winds from the Cyclone could lead to an
Extreme fire danger, such as what happened to Perth from Cyclone Alby in
1978, and Cyclone Vincent in 1990. Temperatures above 40C is quite
possible, depending on how much cloud or rain we get. Perth is going for
39C on Tuesday, and 35C on Wednesday with cloudy and windy conditions.
If the MRF or GASP is right, we might see heavy rain fall accross the South
West, but ofcourse if the NGP is correct, we wont see much.
Here's the extended forecast outlook for the SW from the BoM:
IDF20W00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST LAND DIVISION
Issued at 1:03pm WST on Sunday the 5th of March 2000
SYNOPTIC SUMMARY:
A high pressure system is surging into the bight and is bringing fresh gusty
E'ly winds. Some cloud should persist near the south coast, with mild
conditions, otherwise expect warm to hot weather.
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS:
During Tuesday winds should tend fresh gusty NE'ly, with a hot day forecast in
most parts. Expect fresh seabreezes near the south coast. The weather pattern
becomes very complex on Wednesday and Thursday, with interactions between a mid
level trough, Tropical Cylone Norman and Tropical Cyclone Steve. A number of
outcomes are possible, depending on where the interaction takes place.
If systems develop over water to the west of the state, then hot to very hot
conditions would prevail, with strong NE/NW winds and extreme fire dangers
across much of the SW Land Division. However an interaction closer to the west
coast would lead to cooler conditions with areas of significant rain.
FORECASTS FOR THE SOUTHWEST LAND DIVISION:
MONDAY:
Fine. Very hot. Fresh NE winds.
TUESDAY:
Cloudy in north. Hot to very hot in the remainder. Fresh gusty NE winds
WEDNESDAY:
Winds increasing.
THURSDAY:
Windy.
Jacob
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019
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 15:30:56 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Steve Cat 1 animation update #22
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
TC Steve map animation at http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SteveWAanim.htm
updated to BoM #22, although I used the 0400 UTC Shipping warning for the
wind zone.
Steve has moved a little further offshore, and looks like it will undergo a
fairly rapid intensification, but is likely to remain fairly close to the
coast if keeps it's current course.
I hope you lads in Karratha are battening down!
As someone has already posted warning #22, I have included only the latest
JTWC warning below.
Regards,
Carl.
384
WTXS35 PGTW 050300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 018
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 17.9S7 121.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 121.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 18.6S5 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.1S1 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 19.9S9 114.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 21.2S5 111.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 23.6S1 108.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 120.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED ABOUT 50 NM NORTHWEST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 INFRARED
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AS TC 14P CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
DAMPIER LAND COAST. BROOME, AUSTRALIA RADAR LOOP INDICATES HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO THE ROEBUCK PLAINS JUST SOUTHEAST
OF BROOME. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, EAST OF TC 14P.
THIS WILL CAUSE TC 14P (STEVE) TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
TC 14P SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE COAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8), 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5),
052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1) AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
BT
#0001
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020
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 16:53:19 +1000
From: Susan Puddifer [susanpud at healey.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 (Macintosh; I; PPC)
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Susan From Balmain
Got a lot of nice rumbling going on here atm - been audible now for
around 30 mins - looks like we might get something . sounds fairly
active. Nothing to see but grey murk though.
susan
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021
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 17:11:21 +1000
From: Susan Puddifer [susanpud at healey.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 (Macintosh; I; PPC)
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Storms continued
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Susan From Balmain
Rain has started now - preceeded by some light hail
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022
From: "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Hailstorm Near Lithgow
Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 17:15:49 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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After being stuck in work while this moved north of Penrith, this storm was
very active lightning wise. Power was down at two of the major shopping
centres in Penrith for about two minutes. Another storm looks like its
heading right for Penrith now.
Dann
----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Sunday, March 05, 2000 2:10 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Hailstorm Near Lithgow
> Hi all!
>
> Matthew Smith and James Harris just phoned me, they're getting 2cm hail
> in Lithgow (1pm EST/2pm EDT)!!! However, they can't report it to the
> BoM because the NSW storm spotter line does not allow calls from mobiles
> (one of the most unintelligent moves I've ever known...), and also I
> can't call them, as they don't allow interstate calls to the spotter
> line!!! I had to phone Michael Thompson to ask him to phone the spotter
> line to report it!!!
>
> Talk about mucking around just to report something!
>
> None the less, a nice cluster of storms west of Syndey, two are in the
> pink (near Lithgow, and WSW of Lithgow).
>
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> 14 Kinsella St
> Belmont, Brisbane
> QLD, 4153
> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
023
X-Sender: bayns at mail.broad.net.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 16:16:26 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: SE QLD weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hey all,
turned out to be a good day. here some recent snaps :
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/0503001.jpg 3:30pm est west
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/0503002.jpg 3:30pm sw
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/0503003.jpg 4:00pm west
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/0503004.jpg ' ' north
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/0503005.jpg ' ' sw
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/0503006.jpg ' ' east
enjoy what we have
see yas
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024
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 17:18:35 +1100
From: David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.08 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
HI Susan,
Yes reports of lots of thunder and rain in Blacktown,,
Dave,
Susan Puddifer wrote:
> Susan From Balmain
> Got a lot of nice rumbling going on here atm - been audible now for
> around 30 mins - looks like we might get something . sounds fairly
> active. Nothing to see but grey murk though.
>
> susan
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
025
From: "Adam Mayo" [oyam at bigpond.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Storms
Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 17:20:18 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Isn't that grey murk wonderful, it is at Mona Vale as well, but we can hear
a lot of thunder.
Judy Mayo
----- Original Message -----
From: Susan Puddifer [susanpud at healey.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Sunday, March 05, 2000 5:53 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Storms
> Susan From Balmain
> Got a lot of nice rumbling going on here atm - been audible now for
> around 30 mins - looks like we might get something . sounds fairly
> active. Nothing to see but grey murk though.
>
> susan
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
026
X-Sender: jacob at mail.iinet.net.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 14:19:44 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Steve to come down the west coast?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Latest NGP 0Z run is out, very interesting, seems to be closer to the other
models than its previous 12Z run now, also curving it somewhat, by 144
hours it has steve off the central west coast.
Jacob
At 01:21 5/03/00 +0800, you wrote:
>
>It could get very interesting here on the west coast later in the week if
>Cyclone Steve continues on its current track and then curves.
>
>The MRF and GASP have the system brushing the NW coast, and then moving
>south on the west coast, or just inland from the coast, the MRF has it
>moving a lot faster though, having it south of Albany by 144hours.
>
>The EC has it curving right around Western Australia, keeping it out to sea
>and then pushing its remains well into the Great Australian Bight.
>
>The NGP has none of this, and pretty much keeps it on the same track as
>Cyclone Norman did.
>
>If the EC is right, we are then likely to see very hot conditions here in
>the lower west coast, gusty NE winds from the Cyclone could lead to an
>Extreme fire danger, such as what happened to Perth from Cyclone Alby in
>1978, and Cyclone Vincent in 1990. Temperatures above 40C is quite
>possible, depending on how much cloud or rain we get. Perth is going for
>39C on Tuesday, and 35C on Wednesday with cloudy and windy conditions.
>
>If the MRF or GASP is right, we might see heavy rain fall accross the South
>West, but ofcourse if the NGP is correct, we wont see much.
>
>Here's the extended forecast outlook for the SW from the BoM:
>
>IDF20W00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
>
>EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST LAND DIVISION
>Issued at 1:03pm WST on Sunday the 5th of March 2000
>
>SYNOPTIC SUMMARY:
>A high pressure system is surging into the bight and is bringing fresh gusty
>E'ly winds. Some cloud should persist near the south coast, with mild
>conditions, otherwise expect warm to hot weather.
>
>FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS:
>During Tuesday winds should tend fresh gusty NE'ly, with a hot day forecast in
>most parts. Expect fresh seabreezes near the south coast. The weather pattern
>becomes very complex on Wednesday and Thursday, with interactions between
a mid
>level trough, Tropical Cylone Norman and Tropical Cyclone Steve. A number of
>outcomes are possible, depending on where the interaction takes place.
>
>If systems develop over water to the west of the state, then hot to very hot
>conditions would prevail, with strong NE/NW winds and extreme fire dangers
>across much of the SW Land Division. However an interaction closer to the west
>coast would lead to cooler conditions with areas of significant rain.
>
>
>FORECASTS FOR THE SOUTHWEST LAND DIVISION:
>MONDAY:
>Fine. Very hot. Fresh NE winds.
>
>TUESDAY:
>Cloudy in north. Hot to very hot in the remainder. Fresh gusty NE winds
>
>WEDNESDAY:
>Winds increasing.
>
>THURSDAY:
>Windy.
>
>Jacob
>
>
>
>
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027
From: "Patrick Tobin" [patricktobin at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Steve to come down the west coast?
Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 17:25:14 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.5
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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The latest run of NGP (2000030500) now has it looking very interesting for
WA west coast at 144hrs - but that is a long way off.
Some great towers visible to the NE of Canberra - with some nice overshoots.
They are getting a little closer but I suspect we will be just a little bit
too SW to see any action.
Patrick
-----Original Message-----
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Sunday, 5 March 2000 16:29
Subject: aus-wx: Steve to come down the west coast?
>
>It could get very interesting here on the west coast later in the week if
>Cyclone Steve continues on its current track and then curves.
>
>The MRF and GASP have the system brushing the NW coast, and then moving
>south on the west coast, or just inland from the coast, the MRF has it
>moving a lot faster though, having it south of Albany by 144hours.
>
>The EC has it curving right around Western Australia, keeping it out to sea
>and then pushing its remains well into the Great Australian Bight.
>
>The NGP has none of this, and pretty much keeps it on the same track as
>Cyclone Norman did.
>
>If the EC is right, we are then likely to see very hot conditions here in
>the lower west coast, gusty NE winds from the Cyclone could lead to an
>Extreme fire danger, such as what happened to Perth from Cyclone Alby in
>1978, and Cyclone Vincent in 1990. Temperatures above 40C is quite
>possible, depending on how much cloud or rain we get. Perth is going for
>39C on Tuesday, and 35C on Wednesday with cloudy and windy conditions.
>
>If the MRF or GASP is right, we might see heavy rain fall accross the South
>West, but ofcourse if the NGP is correct, we wont see much.
>
>Here's the extended forecast outlook for the SW from the BoM:
>
>IDF20W00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
>
>EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST LAND DIVISION
>Issued at 1:03pm WST on Sunday the 5th of March 2000
>
>SYNOPTIC SUMMARY:
>A high pressure system is surging into the bight and is bringing fresh
gusty
>E'ly winds. Some cloud should persist near the south coast, with mild
>conditions, otherwise expect warm to hot weather.
>
>FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS:
>During Tuesday winds should tend fresh gusty NE'ly, with a hot day forecast
in
>most parts. Expect fresh seabreezes near the south coast. The weather
pattern
>becomes very complex on Wednesday and Thursday, with interactions between a
mid
>level trough, Tropical Cylone Norman and Tropical Cyclone Steve. A number
of
>outcomes are possible, depending on where the interaction takes place.
>
>If systems develop over water to the west of the state, then hot to very
hot
>conditions would prevail, with strong NE/NW winds and extreme fire dangers
>across much of the SW Land Division. However an interaction closer to the
west
>coast would lead to cooler conditions with areas of significant rain.
>
>
>FORECASTS FOR THE SOUTHWEST LAND DIVISION:
>MONDAY:
>Fine. Very hot. Fresh NE winds.
>
>TUESDAY:
>Cloudy in north. Hot to very hot in the remainder. Fresh gusty NE winds
>
>WEDNESDAY:
>Winds increasing.
>
>THURSDAY:
>Windy.
>
>Jacob
>
>
>
>
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028
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 17:29:01 +1100
From: David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.08 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bathurst
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Rain Has finally started to fall here.. lets just hope no hail is in there..
Had thunder earlier,, has disappeared now..
Dave
Susan Puddifer wrote:
> Susan From Balmain
>
> Rain has started now - preceeded by some light hail
>
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029
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 13:35:56 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Hailstorm Near Lithgow
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Saturday 5:30pm
Yeah, it hailed intensely here in Blackheath at around 3:30pm, only
around pea size hail though but heavy.
Here's a run down on today:
2pm Thunder and moderate to heavy rain for short duration = 6mm
3:30pm Thunder and heavy to very heavy rain for 20 minutes = 18mm!
Amazing and beautiful CC lightning at around 3:50pm, it shot across the
bottom of the clouds, forking everywhere. I looked up (I was working on
my S. Screen at the time) and saw it as it happened - just great.
5pm Lightning, very dark, power surge - computer resets, moderate to
heavy rain for short duration = 3mm
Things have quietened to a little drizzle now, will try and post this
before more lightning comes!
Lindsay P.
Lindsay P.
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030
From: "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Hailstorm Near Lithgow
Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 17:47:29 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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At about 5:35pm started heavily raining here, then that was follow by faily
dense 1cm hail which fell for about 2 minutes. Currently pouring here still.
Matt and James were at Blackheah when i last rang. They were chasing this
storm down the mountains.
Dann
----- Original Message -----
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Monday, March 06, 2000 8:35 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Hailstorm Near Lithgow
> Saturday 5:30pm
>
> Yeah, it hailed intensely here in Blackheath at around 3:30pm, only
> around pea size hail though but heavy.
>
> Here's a run down on today:
>
> 2pm Thunder and moderate to heavy rain for short duration = 6mm
>
> 3:30pm Thunder and heavy to very heavy rain for 20 minutes = 18mm!
>
> Amazing and beautiful CC lightning at around 3:50pm, it shot across the
> bottom of the clouds, forking everywhere. I looked up (I was working on
> my S. Screen at the time) and saw it as it happened - just great.
>
>
> 5pm Lightning, very dark, power surge - computer resets, moderate to
> heavy rain for short duration = 3mm
>
> Things have quietened to a little drizzle now, will try and post this
> before more lightning comes!
>
> Lindsay P.
>
>
>
> Lindsay P.
>
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031
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 18:02:54 +1100
From: David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.08 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lithgow Storms - Hail
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hi all..
Just heard on radio scanner, Police advised Fire Brigade from Orange heading to
Lithgow to help pump out water
in the SES building, which was also hit by lightning as well, quite ironic hey..
Dave
,
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032
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 18:09:30 +1100
From: Jane ONeill [cadence at rubix.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win95; I)
To: Aussie-wx [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: STA No 2
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1713 on Sunday the 5th of March 2000
This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
Northern Tablelands south of Armidale,
Mid-North Coast south of Port Macquarie,
North West Slopes south of Narrabri,
Hunter northwest of Wisemans Ferry to Gloucester.
Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area until 8pm. Some of
these
are expected to be severe bringing hail up to 2cm, destructive winds and
very heavy rainfall.
Rain heavy enough to cause flash flooding has been reported from
Gloucester.
Jane ONeill
ASWA - Victoria
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033
From: "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au]
To: "aussieweather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Hunter takes the Cake...again. STA time!
Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 18:12:15 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Well it looks like the Hunter will again absolutely go off. If one takes a look at the latest radar, one shall see a lovely line of storms from Singleton to west of Dungog, with two clumps of red in the line. Should be a nice night.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1713 on Sunday the 5th of March 2000
This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
Northern Tablelands south of Armidale,
Mid-North Coast south of Port Macquarie,
North West Slopes south of Narrabri,
Hunter northwest of Wisemans Ferry to Gloucester.
Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area until 8pm. Some of these
are expected to be severe bringing hail up to 2cm, destructive winds and
very heavy rainfall.
Rain heavy enough to cause flash flooding has been reported from
Gloucester.
Dann
=========================
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
=========================
From: "Weatherhead" To: "aussieweather" Subject: aus-wx: Illawarra, Southern Tablelands, and South Coast STA Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 18:14:20 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1734 on Sunday the 5th of March 2000
This advice affects people in the following weather district:
Southern Tablelands east of Crookwell to Braidwood,
Illawarra south of Kiama to Bowral,
South Coast north of Batesman Bay.
The advice in the Central Tablelands is now cancelled,
Thunderstorms are occuring within the advice area and will continue during
this afternoon. Some of these are expected to be severe bringing large
hailstones and heavy rainfall.
Daniel Weatherhead
=========================
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
=========================
034
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 18:24:25 +1100
From: Jane ONeill [cadence at rubix.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win95; I)
To: Aussie-wx [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Ulladulla streaming cam
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
http://www.mum.com.au/
got streaming towncam - there are storms to the north west & this could
get interesting - for anyone with SDS I captured some great lightning
here last April on that fated night - have a look!
Jane ONeill
ASWA - Victoria
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
035
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 15:56:24 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer [mjd at wantree.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: TC STEVE update #23 Cat 1/2 system
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
IDW50W05
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued at 3:50 pm WST on Sunday, 5 March 2000
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is current for the coastal areas between
BIDYADANGA
and ONSLOW. A CYCLONE WATCH extends south to Carnarvon.
At 3pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE STEVE was located 235 kilometres northeast
of Port
Hedland and 400 kilometres northeast of Karratha and moving west
southwest at 18
kilometres per hour.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected in coastal
areas
between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland tonight, extending westwards towards
Onslow
tomorrow.
Heavy rain is expected to cause widespread flooding of the low-lying
areas in
the west Kimberley region extending to the eastern Pilbara overnight.
Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE STEVE at 3pm WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 18.6 South Longitude 119.9 East.
Recent movement : west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 986 hPa.
Wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour.
Severity category : 1 expected to increase to 2 overnight
The WA State Emergency Service advises of the following community
alerts:
Blue alert: La Grange [Bidyadanga], Eighty Mile Beach, Pardoo,
Sandfire,
Wallal, Warralong, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Yandeyarra, Whim Creek,
Point
Samson, Wickham, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.
The next warning will be issued at 7:00 pm WST.
This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
036
X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58
Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 19:08:45 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: #Weather Footy Tips Comp - Reminder
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Everyone
This is a reminder about the Aussie Rules #Weather Footy Tips comp for
those that are interested but may have forgotten about it or gotten lost
along the way.
So far there are 10 tipsters in the comp, if you want to join us and try
your luck just follow these easy steps
1) Goto http://www.oztips.com
2) Register your name at the registration link (requires your name, email
address and a password)
3) Click either the Join a Tipping Comp link, or the Tipping Tab
4) Enter the Comps number - 3664 and Password - supercell
5) Select your tips
That is it. Make sure if you want to join to do so and place your tips
before March the 8th. Also while you are at the tipping page don't forget
to check out the rules. This will tell you how many points each thing is given
Regards and Happy Tipping
Kathryn Jolly and Jacob Aufdemkampe
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
037
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 18:47:18 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Steve Cat 1 animation update #23
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
Hi All.
TC Steve map animation at http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SteveWAanim.htm
updated to BoM #23.
With the central pressure dropping at 2 hPa per 3 hours, Steve is
intensifying at a steady rate, which can be expected to continue.
The idealised wind zone in the animation shows gale force winds (>30 knots)
now extending on to the coast between Lagrange to Port Hedland, and the BoM
says these can be expected to increase to 100 km/hr tonight.
The latest JTWC warning is pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
267
WTXS35 PGTW 050900
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 019
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 18.5S4 119.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 119.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.2S2 117.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.9S9 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.8S0 113.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.8S1 112.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 24.5S1 110.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 119.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED ABOUT 130 NM NORTHEAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION NORTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE
SYSTEM. THE PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA RADAR LOOP INDICATES HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. TC 14P
(STEVE) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER
SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. TC 14P WILL GRADUALLY TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
AFTER THE 48-HOUR POINT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
14P SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE
TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050600Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5),
052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1), 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3) AND 060900Z5 (DTG
060751Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR FOR ITS FINAL
WARNING.//
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
038
X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified)
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Date: Sun, 05 Mar 2000 21:13:33 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Todays Chase
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Great day today, always a great feeling when you watch a certain day for
a while, watch the models leading up to that day, forecast yourself, and
pick a target area where storms develope, you get a sense of achievment
:D.
I would like to strongly echo Anthonys email, about the BoM spotter line,
regarding mobile and STD calls. This is something that really got on my
nerves.
God knows what would have happened if the hail was any larger and for
some reason couldnt contact anthony to relay the information. I would
like to see the BoM change this as it is delaying important spotter
reports.
Chase in short form:
2cm hail at Lithgow near the Macca's there.
2 Short lived gust fronts that were nice, and a constant green tinge in
the clouds all day once storms developed.. was great.
CG's all over the show, some nice pulsating ones, and its great to listen
to thunder echoeing off the mountains etc at Oberon, when you are fogged
in and only seeing flashes!
Hail also up on Mt Wilson i think it was called (small stuff, 1cm but in
drifts), and lots of small rivers on the sides of the road there, with
lots of rain collecting on the roads.
Ill get the photos done in the next couple of days.
Thanks to Daniel Weatherhead, Anthony Cornelius, and David Carrol for
giving us updates throughout the day. And a big thanks to Jane ONeill for
saving the radar/sat pics for us...ill be able to write a good report on
this now :)
I also hope everyone enjoyed the storms, i believe its the first good
afternoon widespread thunderstorm activity since October 1 in Sydney.
Matthew Smith
-----Thunderstruck - Storm Chasing in
Australia -----
http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm/thunderstruck/index.htm
----Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA )----
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
039
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Great Taralga Chase ( and Illawarra fails again )
Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 22:22:52 +1000
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I was almost caught napping with today's activity. Around 9.45am we had a
solitary rumble from an embedding cell that developed just on the coast.
This had me hopes high for later.
At 2pm today the sky was complete overcast, but quite bright and no sign of
Cu here. The radar showed some storms around Lithgow -Bathurst, and some
isolated cells to Marulan. It looked really weak so I was prepared to sit it
out until Anthony Cornelius rang asking me to forward to the BOM a report
from Matt Smith of 2cm at Lithgow.
After ringing to BOM I could not hold back and hit the road aiming for
Marulan At the top of Macquarie Pass I could make out the anvil of the
Lithgow stuff. To the west and SW it was clearing, but a line of congestus
was on the clearing boundary. At Goulburn the sight towards Yass was of
completely clear sky, to the north it was darker, but rather disorganised. I
decided to go as far as Taralga.
About 15km from Taralga things started to happen, low bases and some
structure. A couple of massive rain drops fell, melted hailstones I thought,
a few seconds later and pea size hail started to fall, this was onto a dry
road, it only lasted about 2-3km after which I went under a gust front. I
pulled over and took some pics, nothing too exciting. There was the odd
rumble of thunder and quite cool downdraft winds. A few more k's towards
Taralga and it bucketed, we are talking flash flood territory. At Taralga I
briefly contemplated the Wombeyan Caves road, but the storm east of Taralga
looked spent, whilst back south towards Goulburn it was looking fresh. On
the way back I ran into more heavy rain and some small hail, water over road
everywhere. I also ran into a smaller storm at Marulan.
Back home and it was dry ( and still is ), there had not been anything since
this morning, another poor day in the Illawarra, but at least I did not miss
out for once.
By the way the wind has shifted SE here again!.
Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com
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| Document: 000305.htm
Updated: 18 March 2000 |
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