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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Monday, 13 March 2000 |
From Subject
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001 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Model Gurus
002 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) New source of Aussie upper air raw data?
003 Jane ONeill [cadence at rubix.net.au] Victorian ASWA meeting agenda
004 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. New source of Aussie upper air raw data?
005 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Fwd: SUMMARY: January TC Summary - Indian Ocean
006 Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au Fwd: SUMMARY: January TC Summary - Indian Ocean
007 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Fwd: SUMMARY: January TC Summary - Indian Ocean
008 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] #Weather Footy Tipping Comp
009 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Fwd: SUMMARY: January TC Summary - Indian Ocean
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001
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Model Gurus
Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2000 22:41:09 GMT
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Paul, there haven't been many occasions this summer when AVN/MRF
*haven't* developed a TC somewhere in their run. The current (00z MRF
and 12z AVN) are developing TCs north of the Kimberley and in the
Coral Sea, the latter forecast to bear down on Brisbane by the end of
the week! I can't recall this model being so bullish in previous
seasons, but I seem to remember that there was a major tweak to it
last October(?) that may be making it more sensitive to variables in
the tropics. BTW, AVN and MRF are one and the same NCEP model, just
the AVN (or "Aviation") run is pulled off the computer earlier than
MRF -- AVN only goes out to +72h while MRF goes out to +288. In
addition, MRF ingests some later data than AVN (typically late ship
and buoy reports, wayward land synops, and some of the interpolated
data from satpix), so it usually has a (slightly) more detailed base
to work from.
Laurier
On Sat, 11 Mar 2000 22:54:09 +0930, paulmoss at tpgi.com.au wrote:
>Hi Laurier, Blair or anyone who calls themselves a models expert.
>
>Please put me out of my misery. 72hr AVN MRF shows a possible
>Tropical Low / Possible TC right near us. Unisys MRF model also
>shows that Low combined with a upper high.
>
>BOM forecast shows the monsoonal trough located in the area.
>NOGAPS as usual shows a Cyclone over Sydney...........
>(kiddin....but you know what I mean).
>
>The precipitation forecast has been showing for days now the
>250mm plus shading over us for the next forcast periods (2 weeks).
>
>Is there a chance of a Tropical Low / Cyclone forming? Certainly
>hot & humid here today - temp was 30 with DP's of 25 (yeah it was
>bloody humid with a moist SW'erly blowing as well.
>
>Please give your opinions.......and give me some hope or put me
>out of my misery.
>
>As usual the BOM "wont comment" ............
>
>Paul in Darwin.
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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002
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: New source of Aussie upper air raw data?
Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2000 01:20:18 GMT
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This is for the tech heads prepared to put in some elbow grease to
extract real-time upper air soundings. It's a lot easier to use Uni of
Wyoming plotted skew-t's, but these are only available at 00 UTC and
(for a few locations) at 12 UTC. The following gives you access to a
pretty constant stream of vertical profiles at each of our capital
city airports outside curfew times, and less frequent ones at major
regional airports.
I've only just become aware that this stuff is freely available on the
net. Major airlines transmit temperature, wind and pressure data while
in flight. It is returned to the BoM in AMDAR code, and you can find
it at http://www.met.fsu.edu/Data/archive/upperair/aircraft/ (God
bless FSU!)
Select a file for a particular hour, then look for a header like this:
UDAU01 AMMC 072000
AMDAR 0720
where the 0720.. bit is date/time UTC. Here's an extract from one of
these bulletins for 20 UTC on 7/3/00 (7am EDST last Wednesday):
>DES AN6107 3252S 15058E 1930 F235 MS225 336/024 TB0 S031 333 F235 VG008=
>DES AN6107 3236S 15055E 1928 F297 MS390 337/037 TB0 S031 333 F297 VG011=
>DES AN6107 3302S 15100E 1931 F182 MS110 341/026 TB0 S031 333 F182 VG007=
>DES AN6107 3311S 15102E 1933 F139 MS032 014/030 TB0 S031 333 F139 VG019=
>UNS AN6107 3324S 15104E 1935 F096 PS017 103/018 TB0 S031 333 F099 VG018=
>DES AN6107 3332S 15104E 1937 F068 PS062 135/024 TB0 S031 333 F071 VG013=
>DES AN6107 3338S 15106E 1938 F045 PS102 129/031 TB0 S031 333 F047 VG013=
>DES AN6107 3343S 15107E 1940 F038 PS107 129/031 TB1 S031 333 F040 VG029=
>DES AN6107 3348S 15109E 1941 F028 PS132 124/031 TB1 S031 333 F030 VG028=
>DES AN6107 3351S 15109E 1943 F018 PS150 132/032 TB1 S031 333 F020 VG025=
>UNS AN6107 3353S 15110E 1944 F013 PS162 131/031 TB1 S031 333 F015 VG022=
>UNS AN6107 3354S 15110E 1944 F008 PS170 141/020 TB1 S031 333 F010 VG034=
>DES AN6107 3354S 15110E 1945 F006 PS170 157/020 TB1 S031 333 F008 VG026=
>DES AN6107 3355S 15110E 1945 F004 PS175 153/031 TB1 S031 333 F006 VG039=
>DES AN6107 3356S 15111E 1945 F002 PS185 157/030 TB1 S031 333 F004 VG021=
>DES AN6107 3356S 15111E 1946 F000 PS190 157/026 TB0 S031 333 F002 VG002=
This is data from Ansett flight AN6107 DEScending into Sydney. The
Lat/Long figures tell us the first observation was about 250km NE of
Kingsford Smith AP. Next are the time and flight level figures,
starting at 1930 UTC at FL 235 (23,500 feet), and ending up at 1946UTC
at F000, on the ground. The temperature rose from minus 22.5 at 23,500
feet to 19.0 on the ground. Wind was consistently 330 to 340 degrees
down to 18,200 feet, then swung to northerly (014 degrees) at 13,900
feet, and then was ESE to SE down to 800 feet, only turning SSE (150
to 160 deg) in the bottom few hundred feet. At this time it was
pouring at Mascot, with a stiff SSE wind, yet radar showed the showers
were moving from the NNW. Clearly the rain was mainly being generated
above around 14,000 feet.
For anyone researching individual storm developments, this data,
especially if plotted against time, could be great for filling in some
blanks in your knowledge.
Hey, Michael S -- want to write a program to do that?
Laurier
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
003
Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2000 22:35:16 +1100
From: Jane ONeill [cadence at rubix.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win95; I)
To: Aussie-wx [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian ASWA meeting agenda
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
The next ASWA meeting will be held on Saturday March 18th ~ 8.30-9am
starting with breakfast (if you live in the Knox area, don't forget to
vote between 8am & 6pm)
Breakfast topic: the month in review - general discussion on activity
since our last meeting - bring along photos, satpics etc for discussion.
Speaker: Lindsay Smail - author of 'Weather Wonders of Geelong' will
present a talk on 'Weather Wonders of Geelong'
Please bring money for orders for Tshirts, polo shirts & windcheaters -
last chance - order goes in on Monday 20th.
Please let me know of apologies and acceptances so I can confirm numbers
for the room.
Please attend your meeting!!
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill
cadence at rubix.net.au
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
004
Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2000 13:01:03 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: New source of Aussie upper air raw data?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Laurier Williams wrote on Mon, 13 Mar 2000 01:20:18 GMT:
>
> This is for the tech heads prepared to put in some elbow grease to
> extract real-time upper air soundings...
>
[snip]
>
> Hey, Michael S -- want to write a program to do that?
Geez Laurier, you know how to suck someone in:-) It's a hell
of a task too since the goal is to obtain a sounding for a
given spot at a given time.
1) Download all AMDAR data and keep it updated.
2) Correlate data by time and loc (lat/lon). We'd need to
set some hysterisis in both time (say 30 mins) and lat/lon
(say 0.5degrees) to get a reasonable dataset for a given
block (large spot) of space.
3) Munge and convert data from 2) to a usable form.
4) Generate "sounding" from correllated data in 3) above.
Fortunately, most large aircraft movements into and out of
Sydney occur during times of great storm interest (1400 to
2000). This could be extremely useful for modifying a
given optimistic STA to one of more certainty, particularly
if the aircraft are prevented from landing or taking off...
Surely, the BoM and other met organisations have developed
a tool for this already. It seems such an obvious application
that value-add's to AMDAR data. If not, I'm happy to offer my
services for an appropriate fee:-) Could be a neat additional
offering from a private met organisation such a The Weather
Co.:-)
P.S. At least I've got the software tools already to do
do this unlike RAPIC-->TIFF:-)
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
005
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2000 15:07:29 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: SUMMARY: January TC Summary - Indian Ocean
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
JANUARY, 2000
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
NOTE: The January summary is being issued in two installments. The
first installment, covering the Australian Region and the South
Pacific, was disseminated on 6 March. This second installment covers
the Southwest Indian Ocean basin
***********************************************************************
JANUARY HIGHLIGHTS
--> Intense cyclone threatens Southwest Indian Ocean islands
--> South Pacific sees first cyclones of season
***********************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for January: No tropical cyclones
***********************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for January: No tropical cyclones
***********************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for January: No tropical cyclones
***********************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for January: No tropical cyclones
***********************************************************************
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for January: 1 tropical disturbance
1 tropical depression (from December)
1 tropical cyclone
1 intense tropical cyclone
The primary sources of information upon which the narrative is based
are the warnings issued by the TCWC on La Reunion Island, associated
with Meteo France, and which is the RSMC for the South Indian Ocean
basin. However, cyclones in this region are named by the sub-regional
centres on Mauritius and Madagascar with longitude 55E as the dividing
line between their respective areas. La Reunion only advises these
centres regarding the intensity of tropical systems. References to
sustained winds should be understood as meaning a 10-min averaging
period unless otherwise stated. In the accompanying track file
some position comparisons have been made with JTWC's positions, and
warnings from JTWC were used as a source of 1-min avg MSW estimates.
Also, the comments about satellite imagery and other sources of data
such as SSM/I and TRMM were obtained for the most part from the JTWC
warnings. A special thanks to Philippe Caroff of the La Reunion
TCWC for sending me information on the tropical disturbance #03, and
a special thanks to Patrick Hoareau and Jean Marc de Maroussem for
passing along some observations from Mauritius and Reunion during
the approach of Tropical Cyclone Connie.
South Indian Ocean Activity for January
---------------------------------------
After getting off to a rather late start (in late December), the
tropical cyclone season in the South Indian Ocean became significantly
more active during the month of January. Babiola became the first
actual tropical cyclone (hurricane force) in the region, and Connie
became an intense tropical cyclone and threatened the islands of
Mauritius and La Reunion. As the month opened, Tropical Depression
Astride (formerly a tropical storm) was still present in the
Mozambique Channel. (See the December summary for a full report on
Tropical Storm Astride.)
In addition to Babiola and Connie, disturbed weather persisted in
the Mozambique Channel for a couple of weeks starting just before
mid-month. Meteo France on Reunion Island (MFR) issued a couple of
bulletins on this system on 12 and 13 Jan, numbering it as disturbance
#03. JTWC mentioned the area in its STWOs for a few days, but dropped
it on 16 Jan. Beginning on 22 Jan JTWC once again began mentioning an
area of convection in the Channel with an associated partially-exposed
LLCC. MFR issued a single bulletin at 0600 UTC on 24 Jan, referring
to the disturbance as #03 once more, so apparently there was possibly
some connection between this flare-up and the earlier disturbance.
JTWC continued to monitor the disturbance through 26 Jan when it had
weakened significantly. I have attempted to piece together a track
for this system in the companion tracks file.
Finally, a new disturbance/depression formed at the end of the month
and was christened Tropical Storm Damienne on 1 Feb. A report on the
short-lived Damienne will be included in the February summary.
Tropical Cyclone Babiola (TC-04S / SIO #02)
3 - 12 January
--------------------------------------------
A STWO issued by JTWC on 1 Jan indicated that an area of convection
with an associated very weak LLCC had formed approximately 130 nm
south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Over the next couple of days the
disturbed area drifted eastward and by 3 Jan was located about 650 nm
east-southeast of Diego Garcia. MFR began issuing bulletins on the
developing disturbance at 0600 UTC. Animated visible satellite
imagery and scatterometer data indicated weak vertical shearing over
the disturbance and animated water vapor imagery indicated fair
outflow. JTWC issued the first of three Formation Alerts at 1630 UTC,
noting that there had been a significant increase in the areal coverage
of convection. SSM/I data revealed deep convection developing around
the eastern and southern sides of the LLCC.
JTWC issued a second Formation Alert at 04/1430 UTC and a third one
on 5 Jan at 1430 UTC. The disturbance had continued to drift slowly
eastward (or quite possibly a new center had formed) during this time.
The first JTWC warning, issued at 05/1800 UTC, placed the center of
the system almost 700 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia and moving
southwestward at 9 kts. The MSW (1-min) was estimated at 35 kts, and
convection was consolidating around the LLCC. The system was forecast
to track southwestward under the influence of a low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge to the south-southeast. MFR upgraded the developing
LOW to a tropical depression six hours later with 30-kt winds (10-min
avg), and Moderate Tropical Storm Babiola was christened at 0600 UTC
on 6 Jan, located about 625 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia. At
1800 UTC Babiola's intensity was holding steady at 35 kts (45-kts 1-min
avg from JTWC) with the LLCC displaced somewhat to the east-southeast
of the primary convection.
On 7 Jan Babiola continued to move slowly to the southwest and
steadily increased in intensity. MSW estimates from both MFR and JTWC
had reached 55 kts by 1800 UTC. A TRMM pass indicated a significant
convective band extending southeast through north wrapping in toward
the LLCC with animated infrared imagery depicting another band forming
180 nm to the west of the LLCC. Babiola began to accelerate toward
the west-southwest on the 8th and continued to intensify, reaching
cyclone (hurricane) strength at 1200 UTC when centered about 575 nm
south of Diego Garcia. A banding eye became apparent, and Babiola
presented a rather symmetrical appearance in satellite imagery with
an upper-level HIGH over the storm enhancing outflow in all quadrants.
The west-southwestward to southwestward motion continued through
9 Jan with Babiola reaching its peak intensity late on the 9th. 200-mb
analysis showed that the cyclonic circulation extended into the upper
levels with good outflow. At 1800 UTC Babiola displayed a ragged eye
20 nm in diameter with good outflow channels over the western half of
the system. The cyclone was by this time beginning to move south-
southwestward. JTWC's peak MSW (1-min) of 90 kts was reached at
this time, and MFR had upgraded Babiola to its peak intensity of
80 kts at 1200 UTC. This represents a perfect agreement of Babiola's
peak intensity between the two TCWCs, corresponding to a Dvorak scale
rating of T5.0. The minimum CP estimated by MFR was 954 mb.
On 10 Jan Babiola remained intense but began to show signs of
weakening. The storm began to move due southward and reached the
westernmost point of its trajectory around 1200 UTC when it was located
about 250 nm east-southeast of Rodrigues Island (which lies about
315 nm east of Mauritius). Early in the day the eye disappeared and
Babiola began to elongate and merge with a trough moving rapidly
across the South Indian Ocean. By 1800 UTC the storm was tracking
south-southeastward and the MSW was down to 70 kts (65 kts per JTWC).
Babiola was becoming less organized due to northwesterly shear.
The storm continued to weaken on 11 Jan as it continued toward the
south-southeast and experienced strong vertical shear. By 0600 UTC
Babiola was merging with the approaching trough and beginning extra-
tropical transition (this based upon remarks in the 0600 UTC JTWC
warning). Animated satellite imagery and data from a SSM/I pass
showed an exposed LLCC with convection sheared 85 nm to the south
and east. JTWC issued its last warning on Babiola at 0600 UTC on
12 Jan with winds estimated at only 25 kts, but MFR continued gale
warnings for the weakening system through 12/1200 UTC, although the
bulletins indicated that the gales were forecast to be occurring well
away from the center (up to 120 nm) in the southeast quadrant. Early
on the 12th the previously mentioned 500-mb trough was just west of
Babiola and was interacting with the system, which was becoming
extratropical. MFR issued their last bulletin on Babiola at 1800 UTC,
downgrading the system to below gale intensity and locating the center
approximately 800 nm southeast of Rodrigues Island.
Tropical Cyclone Connie (TC-08S / SIO #04)
25 January - 2 February
-------------------------------------------
An area of convection appeared on 24 Jan about 315 nm east of
northern Madagascar. SSM/I data indicated a fully-exposed LLCC with
disorganized convection. The next day the persistent convection had
become more organized and MFR initiated Tropical Disturbance Bulletins
at 0600 UTC for disturbance #04. The rapidly strengthening disturbance
was upgraded to a tropical depression six hours later and to Moderate
Tropical Storm Connie at 1800 UTC with 40-kt winds. Connie was
centered about 325 nm northwest of Mauritius at that time. (JTWC
issued a Formation Alert at 1000 UTC, and their first warning was
issued at 1800 UTC, giving a MSW estimate of 35 kts (1-min).)
Convective organization was increasing in an environment of good
outflow and weak vertical shear. TRMM microwave imagery depicted
banding of deep convection in the northeast through southwest
quadrants. The storm had been quasi-stationary for several hours
but was forecast to track southwestward under the influence of a
mid-level ridge to the south.
Connie, however, remained more or less stationary, and actually
moved (or was relocated) northward a bit on 26 Jan while slowly
strengthening. A TRMM pass at 26/0703 UTC revealed what appeared to
be a 27-nm wide eye. At 1800 UTC Connie's intensity had reached
45 kts (55 kts 1-min avg from JTWC) and was still quasi-stationary
about 380 nm north-northwest of Mauritius. By 0600 UTC on 27 Jan
the by-now severe tropical storm with 60-kt winds was moving south-
eastward at 6 kts. A SSM/I pass at 0141 UTC revealed an irregular
eye 20 nm in diameter with the eyewall surrounding approximately
4/5 of the vortex. Multi-spectral imagery showed a significant
convective band entering the LLCC from the southern half of the
system.
At 1200 UTC Connie's center was about 300 nm north-northwest of
Mauritius and MFR upgraded the storm to cyclone status with 80-kt
MSW. (JTWC's concurrent 1-min avg MSW was 85 kts at the time.)
The eye diameter by this time had shrunk to 11 nm and convective
features were continuing to develop and build in toward the LLCC
from the southeast and northeast. With an upper-level HIGH located
over the cyclone, the outflow continued to improve and Connie began
to strengthen rapidly. By 1800 UTC Connie's well-defined 15-nm wide
eye was located approximately 235 nm northwest of Mauritius and had
moved south at 7 kts over the previous six hours. There was a
surface synoptic report of 10-min avg winds of 31 kts from WMO 61986,
located about 140 nm due east of the cyclone.
Throughout Connie's life center position estimates between JTWC
and MFR were in excellent agreement, and intensity estimates agreed
fairly well except that on 28 and 29 Jan, when the cyclone was at
its peak, there was some divergence of opinion regarding the cyclone's
intensity. At 27/1800 UTC JTWC increased the MSW (1-min) to 115 kts,
which equates to T6.0 on the Dvorak scale. MFR's 10-min MSW estimate
was 90 kts--equivalent to a Dvorak rating of T5.5--and as everyone
in the business knows, a difference in Dvorak analysis of 0.5 T-number
represents good agreement. At 28/0600 UTC JTWC began to gradually
bring down Connie's MSW while MFR's value held steady at 90 kts.
At 1800 UTC Reunion increased its MSW estimate to a peak of 100 kts
(T6.0 on the Dvorak scale) while JTWC had brought its value down to
105 kts (T5.5). Remarks in the JTWC warning indicated that this
was based upon CI estimates of 102 kts and 127 kts (T5.5 and T6.5).
Connie's eye had remained well-defined, but cloud tops had warmed
somewhat over the cyclone's center. MFR maintained the 100-kt
intensity through 29/0600 UTC and then brought the MSW down to 85 kts
at 29/1200 UTC. JTWC's estimates had continued to slowly decline and
had reached 80 kts (1-min) by 1200 UTC. The minimum CP in Connie's
history as estimated by MFR was 928 mb at 28/1800 UTC.
By 0000 UTC on the 29th Connie was centered about 130 nm northwest
of Mauritius. The cyclone was maintaining a 10-nm diameter eye, but
was showing signs of shearing to the south. Water vapor imagery
indicated a weak TUTT to the southwest of the storm which was causing
the increase in vertical shear. By 1800 UTC on 28 Jan Connie was
moving to the southwest on a track which carried it about 100 nm west
of Reunion Island around 1800 UTC on 29 Jan. The MSW was down to
80 kts (both MFR and JTWC) as the eye was no longer apparent and drier
air from the TUTT was being injected into the storm's inflow. At
30/0000 UTC Connie was located approximately 145 nm west-southwest of
Reunion and moving southwest at 11 kts--a motion which had increased
to 18 kts by 0600 UTC. The storm's intensity was down to near minimal
cyclone force by this time, and Connie was beginning to recurve to the
south-southeast.
By 1800 UTC on 30 Jan the storm was moving southward about 265 nm
east of the southern tip of Madagascar with 55-kt winds (60 kts 1-min
avg from JTWC). Earlier in the day a SSM/I pass had indicated a spiral
band of convection to the west of the LLCC, but a TRMM pass at 1331 UTC
indicated only isolated convection to the south of the center and
Connie was forecast to continue weakening. On 31 Jan Connie began to
move in a southeasterly direction, steered by a mid-level subtropical
ridge to the northeast and the approaching trough to the southwest.
The storm, however, held on to its intensity with the MSW remaining
at 55 kts through most of the day. JTWC actually increased its 1-min
avg MSW to 65 kts briefly at 1800 UTC based upon satellite intensity
estimates.
However, any re-intensification was short-lived. Animated visible
imagery early on 1 Feb showed a fully-exposed LLCC with rapidly
weakening convection about 70 nm to the east of the center. Infrared
imagery depicted a rapid warming of cloud tops as well as a significant
decrease in the areal extent of deep convection. MFR issued its final
warning at 01/0000 UTC since Connie appeared to be rapidly losing
strength and was taking on extratropical characteristics. JTWC
continued to track the rapidly weakening storm through 0600 UTC on
2 Feb when the MSW was estimated at only 25 kts and the center was
located about 725 nm south of Reunion Island. SSM/I data indicated
a fully-exposed LLCC with weakening convection displaced about 75 nm
northeast of the center. The remnants of Connie were forecast to
continue moving southeastward and weaken.
Jean Marc de Maroussem, a resident of Mauritius, sent me some
observations he'd made during Connie's closest approach to the island.
The lowest pressure reported by Jean Marc was 1000.6 with several wind
gusts exceeding 55 kts and a peak gust of 65 kts. The average
rainfall for the entire island was about 200 mm--a bit of relief for
the drought-stricken island but not enough.
As far as Reunion Island goes, Patrick Hoareau reported that he'd
been listening to the official radio on the internet and wind gusts
of around 60-80 kts had been reported. Also 16,000 people were
without power. Press reports indicated that Connie was responsible
for two deaths on Reunion. One hundred homes were reportedly
destroyed with at least 600 persons homeless.
***********************************************************************
AUSTRALIAN REGION (AUG) - From Longitude 90E Eastward to Longitude 160E
Activity for January: 2 tropical LOWs
1 hybrid LOW
1 severe tropical cyclone
NOTE!!! The Australian Region was covered in the first installment of
the January summary which was issued on 6 March.
***********************************************************************
SOUTHWEST PACIFIC (SWP) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for January: 2 tropical depressions
2 tropical cyclones of storm intensity
NOTE!!! The South Pacific basin was covered in the first installment
of the January summary which was issued on 6 March.
***********************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I included in the July, 1998 summary.
I will include this glossary from time to time, primarily in "lean"
months without a lot of tropical cyclone activity to cover. But if
anyone missed receiving it and wishes to obtain a copy, send me an
e-mail privately and I'll forward them a copy.
***********************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
in the following manner:
(a) FTP to: hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206]
(b) Login as: anonymous
(c) For a password use your e-mail address
(d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data)
(e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii)
(f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name )
(The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using
January as an example: jan00.tracks)
(g) To exit FTP, type: quit
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries,
they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD. The
summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature: jan00.sum, for
example.
Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Tom Berg, Michael
Pitt, and Rich Henning):
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
I have discovered that JTWC now has available on its new website
the complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report for 1997 (1996-1997 season
for the Southern Hemisphere). Also, tracks only for the 1998 tropical
cyclones are currently available.
The URL is:
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 1999 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 1999
Atlantic and most of the Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now
available.
The URL is:
Prepared by: Gary Padgett
E-mail: garyp at alaweb.com
Phone: 334-222-5327 (nights & weekends) / 850-882-2594 (weekdays)
***********************************************************************
***********************************************************************
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
006
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNNICH.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fwd: SUMMARY: January TC Summary - Indian Ocean
Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2000 15:09:18 +0930
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id AAA24363
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
These summaries are excellent Carl - one query - is it possible to include
rainfall figures as well?
Rgds, paul.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
007
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2000 17:40:21 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fwd: SUMMARY: January TC Summary - Indian Ocean
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Paul and All.
>These summaries are excellent Carl - one query - is it possible to include
>rainfall figures as well?
>Rgds, paul.
If anyone has rainfall figures for the passage of cyclones, email them to
me, and I will include them in the TC Summaries I send off to Gary Padgett.
Any other information that anyones feels could be usefully included, please
forward it to me. All people that send info for inclusion will be duly
acknowledged in all reports.
Of particular relevence at the moment would be rainfall figures and other
information for TC Steve, as I am writing the summary for that now.
I have also forwarded your inquiry to Gary Padgett.
Regards,
Carl.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
008
X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58
Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2000 21:37:09 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: #Weather Footy Tipping Comp
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
To All in the Footy Tipping Comp,
Just a reminder to let everyone know that their tips for round 2 must be in
by the 17th of March.
Congratulations Chas for picking all correct tips in round 1
Regards
Kathryn Jolly and Jacob Aufdemkampe
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
009
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fwd: SUMMARY: January TC Summary - Indian Ocean
Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2000 12:12:23 GMT
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On Mon, 13 Mar 2000 17:40:21 +1000, Carl Smith
wrote:
>Hi Paul and All.
>
>>These summaries are excellent Carl - one query - is it possible to include
>>rainfall figures as well?
>>Rgds, paul.
>
>If anyone has rainfall figures for the passage of cyclones, email them to
>me, and I will include them in the TC Summaries I send off to Gary Padgett.
>Any other information that anyones feels could be usefully included, please
>forward it to me. All people that send info for inclusion will be duly
>acknowledged in all reports.
>
>Of particular relevence at the moment would be rainfall figures and other
>information for TC Steve, as I am writing the summary for that now.
>
Carl, my daily summaries of severe and significant weather contain
highest daily rainfall totals as well as shorter point rainfalls. They
can be accessed from http://ausweather.simplenet.com/news/news.html,
then go to the relevant dates.
Rainfall totals for the week to date for all Australia are at
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/rainfall/totals/week/station.list
and month-to-date totals are at
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/rainfall/totals/cmonth/station.list
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://ausweather.simplenet.com
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| Document: 000313.htm
Updated: 18 March 2000 |
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