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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Thursday, 16 March 2000 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au] Brisbane 1973 Tornado Report
002 "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] Melbourne Storm Chasers 5 minutes of fame
003 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Tropical Cyclone 20S (Olga?) off NW WA
004 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
005 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
006 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
007 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Steve Reports and Thanks to contributors
008 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Tornadoes (fwd)
009 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
010 "Mac Hill" [mac_hill at hotmail.com] Cyclone located at Qld.
011 "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com] OH MY GOD - SYDNEY FORECAST
012 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] OH MY GOD - SYDNEY FORECAST
013 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Possible Qld Cyclone? - TCA#2
014 Miguel de Salas [mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au LIs in SE NSW on the 18th
015 davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au Storms.. Central West Plains.
016 davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au Storms.. Central West Plains.
017 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Storms.. Central West Plains.
018 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Qld TCA#3 & WA TC 20S
019 "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com] Storms.. Central West Plains.
020 Pjcorlett at aol.com Victorian ASWA meeting agenda
021 "dann weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.a Photos of Tuesday14 and Thursday 9th
022 Clyve Herbert [cadence at rubix.net.au] 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
023 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] Tornadoes (fwd)
024 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
025 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Saturday's Sydney storm prospects
026 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
027 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au] Storms.. Central West Plains.
028 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] Brisbane 1973 Tornado Report
029 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] On rating naders in Aus?
030 "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] On rating naders in Aus?
031 "Peter Tristram" [petertri at midcoast.com.au] ocean temps
032 David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au] Townsville Radar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au]
To: "aus-wx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane 1973 Tornado Report
Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 23:33:33 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
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Hi all
I have recently received some slides and an account of somebody who
experienced the storm that spawned the tornado on November 4, 1973. The
damage pics are of very good quality, and show the obvious damage by this
F2, possibly F3 tornado.
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm/reports/nov4_73.html
Enjoy,
James Chambers
The Brisbane & SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html
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002
From: "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net]
To: "aus-wx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne Storm Chasers 5 minutes of fame
Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 14:06:01 -0000
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times are always GMT
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List -
I have been in touch with Meridian TV as I
don't get CyberCafe in my state <g>. They're going to send me a video
which I'll convert to a Jpeg movie.
They were staggered that 2 of the webcam
chases were by a Scot living in the North East of England, obviously didn't do
their research properly (:
There's more at:
... anybody's aussie links I've missed give
me an "e" and i'll get 'em in.
Les (UK)
------------------------------------------------------
Les Crossan
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N
01-30W
UK Storm Chaser / Severe Weather
Enthusiast
http://freespace.virgin.net/les.crossan/index.htm
Melbourne
Storm Chasers (MSC) - Victoria, AUS
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) - AUS
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
http://www.torro.org.uk/
Email:
les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM)
ICQ: 17296776
------------------------------------------------------
003
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 00:41:16 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone 20S (Olga?) off NW WA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
JTWC has issued the 1st warning forTropical Cyclone 20S (Olga?), which has
developed very quickly off NW WA.
I guess BoM will upgrade it soon if it is intensifying as fast as JTWC
indicate.
Links to all warnings etc. are on my website at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm.
JTWC 20S#1 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>133
>WTXS31 PGTW 151500 COR
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNING NR 001
> 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> ---
> WARNING POSITION:
> 151200Z9 --- NEAR 17.1S9 115.7E4
> MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
> POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
> POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
> PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
> REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 115.7E4
> ---
> FORECASTS:
> 12 HRS, VALID AT:
> 160000Z7 --- 16.8S5 113.8E3
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 030 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
> ---
> 24 HRS, VALID AT:
> 161200Z0 --- 17.0S8 112.1E5
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 060 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
> ---
> 36 HRS, VALID AT:
> 170000Z8 --- 17.4S2 110.7E9
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 020 NM ELSEWHERE
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 060 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
> ---
> EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> 48 HRS, VALID AT:
> 171200Z1 --- 18.6S5 109.5E5
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
> 025 NM ELSEWHERE
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
> 070 NM ELSEWHERE
> ---
>REMARKS:
>151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 115.2E9.
>THE AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH WAS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
>FORMATION ALERT, HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
>AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
>6 TO 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM NORTHWEST OF
>PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACK WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE
>PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1 INFRARED
>SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
>INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. LOW/MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC
>20S IS TRACKING WITHIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN
>AUSTRALIA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD OFF
>OF THE WEST COAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD, AN
>APPROACHING MAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TRACK
>CAUSING A SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT. TC 20S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER
>THAN NORMAL RATE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
>BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS. THEN, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A MORE
>CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS
>12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 150821Z
>MAR 00 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 150830 ) NEXT
>WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 (DTG 160151Z4) AND 161500Z3 (DTG 161351Z7)
>JUSTIFICATION: CORRECTED REMARKS.//
>BT
>#0001
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
carls at ace-net.com.au
Cyclone Tracking Maps Website:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information Page:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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004
Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 11:33:22 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Jimmy:
No, in my opinion, this is definitely not an arcus cloud but a wall cloud
instead. In the last view there even appears to be a tail cloud
developing off to the right. There does appear to be somewhat of a
mid-level 'overhang' (what would be seen by radar as an overhang). But
this "overhang" does not have the typical appearance and the remainder of
the storm does not look very severe. On the other hand, with that well
developed and persistent wall cloud, I would be surprised if this was not a
hail storm. Obviously, rotation can not be confirmed but this storm must
at least be a multicellular hail storm.
My opinion only.........and I could easily be mistaken.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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005
Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 11:38:14 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Looking at these a second time, I wish I could see more of the upper
portions of the CB but from what I can see, this looks a little more
impressive than I gave it credit for initially. Almost surely this is a
hailstorm and that is a wall cloud.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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006
Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 12:37:22 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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BTW, I don't know if there has been any discussion concerning the origin of
the wall cloud. When a wall cloud is seen, it virtually guarantees that
the storm updraft is surface based rather than having an "elevated"
updraft. (An "elevated" storm or storm having an elevated updraft is one
where, rather than tapping the surface air,the updraft of the storm lifts
air from aloft [1 km to 3 or 4 km above the surface.]) In contrast, the
surface based updraft is tapping the surface 'contact layer'. The wall
cloud is lower than surrounding cloud base because there, the updraft is
pulling (or forcing) upward air that has minutes before, come down in the
rainy downdraft. The air is nearly saturated, that is, the relative
humidity within the rainy downdraft is near 100%. To get into this
downdraft, this descending air that finds its way into the wall cloud, has
generally originated from near the surface but ahead or north (southern
hemisphere) of the storm. The air is raised somewhat by a weak gust front
ahead of and along the left flank of the storm. It flows up over the
relatively shallow gust front and flows rearward and or southward (storm
relative) in the storm into the forward (front flank downdraft) and
descends to the surface where it continues to move in a storm relative
sense, back into the surface convergence region of the updraft and then
rises and quickly becomes saturated, forming the wall cloud.
I will attempt to get a URL which will illustrate this.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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007
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 04:31:11 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Steve Reports and Thanks to contributors
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The first two TC Steve reports have been uploaded at:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Steve1Report.htm and
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Steve2Report.htm and are accessable
through the TC Steve Index page at:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Steve.htm along with links to all the map
animations, the third part will be linked from here as well when I get it
done.
Thanks to all those individuals who have contributed material used for
these reports: -
TROPICAL CYCLONE STEVE (14P) PART #1 - DIRECT HIT ON CAIRNS - REPORT
Mathew Saxby, mozzie at canberra.teknet.net.au, for email containing BoM and
ABC information which I used some extracts from.
Ben Quin, bodie at flatrate.net.au, for pointing me to his report at
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/products/reports/2000/february/steve/index.htm whi
ch I used some extracts from.
Desley Absolon, mystyle at bigpond.com.au, for the News from 'Cyclone City'!!
email originally sent through the aus-wx list which I used extracts from.
The full email with additional update can be read at:
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/SteveCairnsReport.htm.
TROPICAL CYCLONE STEVE (14P) PART #2 - GULF OF CARPENTARIA - REPORT
Mark Kersemakers, Darwin, for TC Steve - Observations, sent to me by Gary
Padgett in the US, thanks for your information which I used extracts from.
And thanks to all those who contacted me offering information.
My thanks would not be complete without mentioning the hard working staff
of Australian Bureau of Meterology for the consistant high standard of
their Tropical Cyclone Advices and Warnings for Shipping used as the basis
for my reports.
And thanks to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, and the
temporary Alternative Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, Yokosuka, Japan, for
the consistantly high standard of the Tropical Cyclone Warnings used for
additional meteorological information.
Thanks also to Gary Padgett for providing me with the opportunity to write
these reports so being able to contribute to the international community of
weather enthusiasts and professionals who recieve the MONTHLY GLOBAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY on a regular basis.
The two reports above have been sent to Gary Padgett for use as a base for
the Australian part of the MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY,
FEBRUARY 2000, due soon.
TC STEVE PART #3 will be written up in due course, however it will be used
for the MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY, MARCH 2000, and I still
need to do reports on TC's Leon and Marcia for Gary yet.
Regards,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Website: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
008
Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 16:29:11 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadoes (fwd)
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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If this is to be done by radar, then volumetric radar scanning is the only
way to determine if a storm is supercellular or not. One low-level scan
will not do it!
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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009
Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2000 17:19:29 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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ALL:
I mentioned that I would try to get a URL up to illustrate the wall cloud
origin. Please find it at:
As you can see, this was courtesy of Jane. Thanks so much Jane!!!
I do hope this together with my last post found below, makes sense.
However, in the explanation below I described it for the southern
hemisphere and the illustration is for the north. If you will, simply flip
the illustration over and it will look as it does in the southern
hemisphere.
"BTW, I don't know if there has been any discussion concerning the origin
of the wall cloud. When a wall cloud is seen, it virtually guarantees that
the storm updraft is surface based rather than having an "elevated"
updraft. (An "elevated" storm or storm having an elevated updraft is one
where, rather than tapping the surface air,the updraft of the storm lifts
air from aloft [1 km to 3 or 4 km above the surface.]) In contrast, the
surface based updraft is tapping the surface 'contact layer'. The wall
cloud is lower than surrounding cloud base because there, the updraft is
pulling (or forcing) upward air that has minutes before, come down in the
rainy downdraft. The air is nearly saturated, that is, the relative
humidity within the rainy downdraft is near 100%. To get into this
downdraft, this descending air that finds its way into the wall cloud, has
generally originated from near the surface but ahead or north (southern
hemisphere) of the storm. The air is raised somewhat by a weak gust front
ahead of and along the left flank of the storm. It flows up over the
relatively shallow gust front and flows rearward and or southward (storm
relative) in the storm into the forward (front flank downdraft) and
descends to the surface where it continues to move in a storm relative
sense, back into the surface convergence region of the updraft and then
rises and quickly becomes saturated, forming the wall cloud."
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
010
X-Originating-IP: [132.234.250.7]
From: "Mac Hill" [mac_hill at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Cyclone located at Qld.
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 09:57:28 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
IDW50Q00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For 9.45am EST on Thursday the 16th of March 2000
A Cyclone Warning has been declared for coastal and island communities
between
Cooktown and Cardwell.
A Cyclone Watch extends south to Townsville.
At 9am EST a deepening tropical low with a central pressure of 1002
hectopascals
was centred about 370 kilometres east of Cooktown and moving west-southwest
at
15 kilometres per hour.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during the day with the
possibility
of gales between Cooktown and Cardwell tonight.
Location of Low centre: within 50 kilometres of 15.6S 148.7E.
Heavy rain is expected to commence overnight between Cooktown and
Townsville.
A Gale Warning has been issued for small craft between Cooktown and
Cardwell.
Residents between Cooktown and Townsville should take preliminary
precautions
and consider what action they will need to take if the threat increases. If
you
are unsure what actions to take, information is available from your local
government office or SES.
The next Advice will be issued at Noon EST.
CopyRight by CCOP WIL =^o^=
============================================================
***By the mean time, please visit my homepage ****
http://www.angelfire.com/ak3/machill/ccc.html
============================================================
"Remember LIFE is just 20 % happens to you
and 80 % on how you react back !!!!
Coz you only live ONCE so take your OWN BEST SHOT !!!!!"
=^o^=
______________________________________________________
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011
X-Originating-IP: [210.9.51.36]
From: "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: OH MY GOD - SYDNEY FORECAST
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 11:55:01 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
This just looks to good to be true, but it does look possible looking at
some of the models.
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 11:38am on Thursday the 16th of March 2000
Sydney Metropolitan: For remainder of today and Friday
A few showers and the chance of thunderstorms in the afternoons and
evenings. Warm to very warm humid days with sunny periods.
Light to moderate northwest to northeast winds, freshening on the
coast Friday afternoon.
Precis Forecasts and Temperatures for Friday :
Sydney Afternoon showers/chance storms.
Min: 20 Max: 28
Liverpool Afternoon showers/chance storms
Min: 19 Max: 30
Richmond Afternoon showers/chance storms
Min: 19 Max: 31
Headline : Afternoon showers/chance thunderstorms.
Saturday : Afternoon showers. Chance storms. S change developing.
City: Min: 19 Max: 30
Sunday : Shower or two. Chance storms. SE/NE winds.
City: Min: 18 Max: 26
Monday : Afternoon showers. Chance storms. S change developing.
City: Min: 18 Max: 28
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
012
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 05:20:03 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OH MY GOD - SYDNEY FORECAST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
12:15 pm Thursday
Some gorgeous towers going up in the Lithgow area and some more fast
developing towers south of Oberon, heading south east.
In particular, the T.Cu near Lithgow looks pretty decent and is
developing fast, considering its only just after midday. Can see it from
my back window now.
Lindsay Pearce.
PS: will try and get back to the lookouts later, if I get a chance.
James Harris wrote:
>
> This just looks to good to be true, but it does look possible looking at
> some of the models.
>
> NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
> Issued at 11:38am on Thursday the 16th of March 2000
>
> Sydney Metropolitan: For remainder of today and Friday
> A few showers and the chance of thunderstorms in the afternoons and
> evenings. Warm to very warm humid days with sunny periods.
> Light to moderate northwest to northeast winds, freshening on the
> coast Friday afternoon.
> Precis Forecasts and Temperatures for Friday :
>
> Sydney Afternoon showers/chance storms.
> Min: 20 Max: 28
>
> Liverpool Afternoon showers/chance storms
> Min: 19 Max: 30
>
> Richmond Afternoon showers/chance storms
> Min: 19 Max: 31
>
> Headline : Afternoon showers/chance thunderstorms.
>
> Saturday : Afternoon showers. Chance storms. S change developing.
> City: Min: 19 Max: 30
>
> Sunday : Shower or two. Chance storms. SE/NE winds.
> City: Min: 18 Max: 26
>
> Monday : Afternoon showers. Chance storms. S change developing.
> City: Min: 18 Max: 28
>
> ______________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>
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013
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 12:35:09 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Possible Qld Cyclone? - TCA#2
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
Could be a cyclone brewing in the Coral Sea. May be headed towards the Port
Douglas-Townsville region.
BoM TCA#2 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
IDW50Q00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For Noon EST on Thursday the 16th of March 2000
A Cyclone Warning is now current for coastal and island communities between
Port Douglas and Townsville.
At Noon EST a tropical low with a central pressure of 1002 hectopascals was
centred about 350 kilometres east-northeast of Port Douglas and moving
southwest
at 15 kilometres per hour.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during the afternoon with the
possibility of gales between Port Douglas and Cardwell tonight and extending
south to Townsville tomorrow.
Location of Low centre at Noon EST: within 50 kilometres of 15.9S 148.5E.
Heavy rain is expected to commence overnight between Port Douglas and
Townsville.
A Gale Warning has been issued for small craft between Low Isles and
Townsville.
Residents between Port Douglas and Townsville should take preliminary
precautions and consider what action they will need to take if the threat
increases. If you are unsure what actions to take, information is available
from
your local government office or SES.
The next Advice will be issued at 2pm EST.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
014
X-Sender: mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au
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Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 14:46:20 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Miguel de Salas [mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au]
Subject: aus-wx: LIs in SE NSW on the 18th
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
There are forecast LIs of about -6 for SE NSW on saturday...
Good luck you people up there...
I'm pretty jealous :)
Miguel de Salas
School of Plant Science,
University of Tasmania,
PO Box 252-55, Sandy Bay, Hobart
Tasmania, Australia, 7001.
mailto://mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au
My Moths Page:
http://members.xoom.com/migueldes/moths/moths.html
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
015
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms.. Central West Plains.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 14:43:30 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on Domino/Advance(Release 5.0.2 (Intl)|4 November 1999) at 16/03/2000 02:43:31 PM
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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IDW16N00
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1355 on Thursday the 16th of March 2000
This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
Central West Plains, south of the Mitchell Highway.
Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of
these are expected to be severe bringing very heavy rain,destructive winds
and a chance of large hail.
The STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE advises that as storms approach people should:
* put vehicles under cover
* move indoors away from windows
During and after the storm people should:
* beware of fallen trees and power lines
* keep away from creeks and drains as you may be swept away
The RTA recommends motorists switch their lights & wipers on & slow down in
the wet.
If your house is damaged contact your local SES unit, listed under "S" in
the white pages, for emergency assistance. Don't use the telephone during
storms.
TV CRAWL: Severe Thunderstorm Advice current for Central West Plains.
NOT FOR BROADCAST: This Advice message is valid until 5pm. The Bureau and
SES would appreciate it being broadcast regularly until this time.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
016
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms.. Central West Plains.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 16:25:32 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on Domino/Advance(Release 5.0.2 (Intl)|4 November 1999) at 16/03/2000 04:25:33 PM
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi there everyone..
On Gpats lightning tracker,, lightning showing up in Condobolin and Cobar
areas at this time.
We have been put on alert and will have extra staff for later on this
afternoon..
Radar is showing Parkes area..
Dave
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
017
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms.. Central West Plains.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 16:26:20 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>
>
> IDW16N00
>
> TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
>
> SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
> BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
> NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
> Issued at 1355 on Thursday the 16th of March 2000
>
> This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
>
> Central West Plains, south of the Mitchell Highway.
>
>
Saw an impressive cell somewhere over central NSW about 1300 today
(was in the midst of flying from Brisbane to Melbourne, which is why
you haven't heard too much from me lately) - don't know exactly
where we were - maybe that was the cell that sparked the warning?
Blair Trewin
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
018
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 15:59:34 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Qld TCA#3 & WA TC 20S
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
Here is the latest from the BoM on the tropical low off Cairns and TC 20S N
of Exmouth WA.
Regards,
Carl.
IDW50Q00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For 2pm EST on Thursday the 16th of March 2000
Note: Repeat transmission to correct location of low centre at 17.3S 147.7E.
A Cyclone Warning is now current for coastal and island communities between
Cairns and Ayr. The Cyclone Warning north of Cairns is finalised.
At 2pm EST a broad tropical low is developing a centre about 200 kilometres
east-southeast of Cairns.
The low is deepening and moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.
A tropical cyclone may develop by evening with the possibility of gales between
Cairns and Ingham tonight and extending south to Ayr early tomorrow.
Central Pressure of Low: 1002 hectopascals
Location of centre at 2pm EST: within 50 kilometres of 17.3S 147.7E.
Heavy rain is expected along much of the north tropical coast.
A Gale Warning has been issued for small craft between Cairns and Ayr.
Residents between Cairns and Ayr should make preparations as the low may reach
tropical cyclone strength by evening. If you are unsure what actions to take,
information is available from your local government office or SES.
The next Advice will be issued at 5pm EST.
IDW50W18
40:0:1:24:17S113E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0426UTC 16 MARCH 2000
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
SITUATION
Tropical low with central pressure 995hPa located at 0400UTC
Within 60 nautical miles of
Latitude sixteen decimal five south [16.5S]
Longitude one hundred and thirteen decimal five east [113.5E]
moving west at 10 knots.
AREA AFFECTED
Low expected to develop into a cyclone over the next 12 -24 hours. Expect winds
increasing to 30/45 knots within 100 nautical miles of centre, causing rough to
very rough seas, moderate swell.
FORECAST
At 1600UTC 16 March. 17.1 south 112.3 east 990hPa
At 0400UTC 17 March. 17.7 south 111.5 east 980hPa
Next warning issued at 1100 UTC 16 March 2000.
WEATHER PERTH
096
WTXS31 PGTW 160300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- NEAR 16.4S1 113.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 113.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 16.3S0 111.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 16.6S3 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 17.3S1 108.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 18.1S0 107.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 113.3E8.
TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 20S HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS
TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. LOW/MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 20S IS
TRACKING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING WEST OFF
AUSTRALIA AND CAUSE TC 20S TO REMAIN ON A RELATIVELY WESTWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CAUSE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT SYSTEM=S
TRACK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR CHARTS INDICATE WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 20S
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 (DTG 161351Z7) AND 170300Z1 (DTG
170151Z5).//
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Website: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
019
X-Originating-IP: [206.17.105.144]
From: "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms.. Central West Plains.
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 19:16:56 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Blair,
Did you happen to get any photos of it ??
james
>Saw an impressive cell somewhere over central NSW about 1300 today
>(was in the midst of flying from Brisbane to Melbourne, which is why
>you haven't heard too much from me lately) - don't know exactly
>where we were - maybe that was the cell that sparked the warning?
>
>Blair Trewin
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
020
From: Pjcorlett at aol.com
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 03:18:53 EST
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian ASWA meeting agenda
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: AOL 4.0.i for Windows 95 sub 146
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Jane,
Just letting you know that I'll be coming on Saturday. See you
then!
Cheers,
Pete.
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021
From: "dann weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Photos of Tuesday14 and Thursday 9th
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 19:30:28 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey Everyone,
These are a few photos from the past week. There
are 4 photos, but i have many many more to be scanned soon. (the computer i am
at has no scanner so these are rush jobs from uni) Anyway here they
are.
Thursday 9th March
--->These are of the updrafts which occured
south of Blaxland in the BlueMountains, these were north of the cell that could
of been a Supercell.
Tuesday 14th March
--->This was from the 'mini' chase Matt Smith
and myself went on to Richmond.
This rainfoot was niely defined as it went into the
valleys near kurrajong height, more pics to follow =)
--->This is the great cell that i got very
excited over. Looking at the photo maybe i was on a sugar high, or SDS was just
letting go of my system, however a nice cell none the less. (the are two
versions here--one is plain scan and one is a retouched image using various
photoshop techiques to enhance cloud definition)
plain scan
retouched
dann weatherhead
022
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 19:34:45 +1100
From: Clyve Herbert [cadence at rubix.net.au]
Organization: ASA - Victoria
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win95; I)
To: Aussie-wx [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Leslie Lemon wrote:
>
>BTW, I don't know if there has been any discussion concerning the origin of the wall cloud. When a wall >cloud is seen, it virtually guarantees that the storm updraft is surface based rather than having an >"elevated" updraft. (An "elevated" storm or storm having an elevated updraft is one where, rather than >tapping the surface air,the updraft of the storm lifts air from aloft [1 km to 3 or 4 km above the >surface.]) In contrast, the surface based updraft is tapping the surface 'contact layer'. The wall
>cloud is lower than surrounding cloud base because there, the updraft is pulling (or forcing) upward air >that has minutes before, come down in the rainy downdraft. The air is nearly saturated, that is, the >relative humidity within the rainy downdraft is near 100%. To get into this downdraft, this descending air >that finds its way into the wall cloud, has generally originated from near the surface but ahead or north >(southern hemisphere) of the storm. The air is raised somewhat by a weak gust front ahead of and along the >left flank of the storm. It flows up over the relatively shallow gust front and flows rearward and or >southward (storm relative) in the storm into the forward (front flank downdraft) and descends to the >surface where it continues to move in a storm relative sense, back into the surface convergence region of >the updraft and then rises and quickly becomes saturated, forming the wall cloud.
Dear Leslie,
Having read your reply in respect of wall cloud generation, I am in
agreeance overall, however I have seen wall clouds of a type generated
under massive Cbs before they mature *to produce rain*. It is apparent
that the accelerated updraft lowers the condensation level by at times
several hundred metres or more. To some extent it may be possible to
attempt an updraft speed estimate by the base of the wallcloud to ground
height, having of course all of the relevant data.
Many regards,
Clyve Herbert
ASWA - Victoria
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023
X-Sender: jra at upnaway.com
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32)
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 16:47:22 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornadoes (fwd)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Yep Ben its a good point,
Im not working on confirmed days as i agree with you and see it as pretty
pointless. What ive been working on is more along the basis of putting days
together where there is sufficeint shear and instabilty to produce
supercells. Thats not to say that they did or didnt happen on those days
but that they were possible. My map will be only a rough guide cause it
also wont be able to take into account numbers of supercells on those days.
Most days when supercells are around there seems to be at least 2 or more.
Really until we get better radar and, or, ways of confirming them we will
only ever get a "rough guide". Still i hope my map will go someway as to
being a guide.
Ira Fehlberg
At 21:51 15/03/00 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Ira, everyone..
>
>Sounds like a great idea! But i see one main problem..
>
>Am i right in saying that the Bureau confirm supercells by radar? If
>that's true then the number of confirmed supercells in hotspots like
>western NSW and QLD and southern inland WA (where there are few, no or
>crappy radars) would be a fraction of what it could/should be..
>
>The shear analysis on its own would be interesting - but then again i
>guess you can have all the shear in the world and not see a cloud in the
>sky (nothing to trigger storms or high caps etc etc)..
>
>Don't take this email as an attack on your ideas - just healthy
>criticism.. i'd be more than interested to hear other peoples opinions..
>
>
>
>Ira Fehlberg wrote:
>>
>> At 15:56 14/03/00 -0600, you wrote:
>> >
>> >Hi there,
>> >
>>
>> >I wish someone would do a ``satellite climatology'' of deep convection
>> >in Australia subject to being in a ``supercellular'' shear environment
>> >(this would knock off most of the tropical convection).
>> >I believe we would find that the extratropical convective maximum is
>> >NOT right along the coasts.
>>
>> Iam currently and have been for the last year or so doing such a map to
>> show areas in Australia more prone to supercells with the help of the
>> severe weather section of the BOM here. This is based on thunder days
>> combined with days with suffcient shear and confirmed supercell days. Its
>> been an on & off affair as its not easy to get a time to go in there when
>> we are both free, but iam getting there and hope to have some sort of guide
>> by about mid year. There is one flaw with this map though. Iam finding that
>> some days that have produced excellent supercells here in WA and also in
>> other states (eg april 14 sydney supercell) is that these days never really
>> had what would be classed as a good setup for supercells yet they did occur
>> none the less.
>>
>> Ira Fehlberg
>>
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>
>--
>
>Ben Quinn
>
>The Brisbane Storm Chasers Homepage (BSCH)
>http://www.bsch.simplenet.com
>The Australian Weather Pages Webring
>http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/webring/index.htm
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024
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 19:24:57 +1000
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I can confirm hailstorm as I was under it, but at a later stage. I had hail
to about 1.5cm, but was about 2-3km east of where it really let loose.
Michael
> Looking at these a second time, I wish I could see more of the upper
> portions of the CB but from what I can see, this looks a little more
> impressive than I gave it credit for initially. Almost surely this is a
> hailstorm and that is a wall cloud.
>
> Les
>
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>
>
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025
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Saturday's Sydney storm prospects
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 19:45:01 +1000
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Saturday as Miguel said in an earlier E Mail is looking very interesting in
eastern NSW. Fairly good LI's down to -6 and CAPE over 1500 and higher about
20-50km inland. Actually the CAPE is about the highest I have seen this
close to the coast this season.
The only fly in ointment maybe the winds, there will be a strong NE
seabreeze along the coast, but the 1000mb model shows this does not
penetrate inland much at all with NW/W winds, that's OK as long as we do not
get another dry line situation.
Higher in the atmosphere the winds are light, but not dead, there is a
slight hook around to the SW at 400mb, then back to about 50-70knots of W at
200mb.
Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com
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026
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud?????
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 19:48:17 +1000
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Hi Clyve
It was the cow pasture near Storm King Dam all over again, ( the one with
Jimmy's classic quote, that was answered by a cow )I was under the cells
from about 5.30-6.30pm and the setup at 6pm was identical, so whatever
prognosis you had for that day at Stanthorpe would pretty much fill the bill
on the 9th March.
Michael
>
> Having read your reply in respect of wall cloud generation, I am in
> agreeance overall, however I have seen wall clouds of a type generated
> under massive Cbs before they mature *to produce rain*. It is apparent
> that the accelerated updraft lowers the condensation level by at times
> several hundred metres or more. To some extent it may be possible to
> attempt an updraft speed estimate by the base of the wallcloud to ground
> height, having of course all of the relevant data.
>
> Many regards,
>
>
> Clyve Herbert
> ASWA - Victoria
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027
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 19:46:30 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms.. Central West Plains.
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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We've been watching these storms on the lightning tracker and they are going
crazy. Over 10,000 strokes in the region over the past 3 hours.
MH
_____________________________________________________
Mark Hardy.
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Level 2, 7 West Street, North Sydney 2060
Ph (02) 9955 7704. Fax (02) 9955 1536.
Mobile 0414 642 739
email: mhardy at theweather.com.au
_____________________________________________________
----------
>From: "James Harris"
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms.. Central West Plains.
>Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 11:16
>
> Hey Blair,
>
> Did you happen to get any photos of it ??
>
> james
>
>
>>Saw an impressive cell somewhere over central NSW about 1300 today
>>(was in the midst of flying from Brisbane to Melbourne, which is why
>>you haven't heard too much from me lately) - don't know exactly
>>where we were - maybe that was the cell that sparked the warning?
>>
>>Blair Trewin
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>
> ______________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>
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028
X-Sender: jra at upnaway.com (Unverified)
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32)
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 17:01:03 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane 1973 Tornado Report
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Being a nader freak i really enjoyed this report james, well put together a
great read!
Ira (bring on WA's winter) Fehlberg
At 23:33 15/03/00 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi all
>
>I have recently received some slides and an account of somebody who
>experienced the storm that spawned the tornado on November 4, 1973. The
>damage pics are of very good quality, and show the obvious damage by this
>F2, possibly F3 tornado.
>
>http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm/reports/nov4_73.html
>
>Enjoy,
>
>James Chambers
>The Brisbane & SE Qld Storm Site
>http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html
>
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029
X-Sender: jra at upnaway.com
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Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 17:44:25 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: aus-wx: On rating naders in Aus?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Reading James's report on the brisse nader got me thinking about rating
naders. Should we rate a tornado on its average strength or on its max
strength? EG: what if a nader is clearly an f-2 for 90% of its life but
does reach f-4 strength for 10%? In most cases there wont be much of a
difference in wind speeds but the brissie nader and others clearly do have.
I know in the states they go on max speed, maybe we could come up with a
formula for life in relation to various wind speeds, what does everythink?
Ira Fehlberg
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030
From: "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: On rating naders in Aus?
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 10:12:37 -0000
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times are always GMT
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----- Original Message -----
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Thursday, March 16, 2000 9:44 AM
Subject: aus-wx: On rating naders in Aus?
>
> Reading James's report on the brisse nader got me thinking about rating
> naders. Should we rate a tornado on its average strength or on its max
> strength
Tornadoes shouldn't be rated on the damage they cause as opposed to
windspeed as an F3/T7 would cause considerably more damage to a house built
from timber than one built from, say, reinforced concrete! It's difficult to
measure maximum windspeeds in tornadoes and then collate this with an
F/T-number.
Perhaps Australia should adopt the Torro Scale much as in the UK....T7-8 is
quite acceptable and allows the latitude neccesary after all gales are
measured by windspeed and not by damage caused to shipping, a force 7
gusting force 9 gale is going to do considerably more damage to a paper boat
than to an oil platform!
Only when true windspeeds can be measured in tornadoes is this issue going
to be resolved, methinks.
btw Ira, your WA severe weather page is now linked from my homepage.... the
Norham Tornado is a real classic (:
Les (UK)
------------------------------------------------------
Les Crossan
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W
UK Storm Chaser / Severe Weather Enthusiast
http://freespace.virgin.net/les.crossan/index.htm
Melbourne Storm Chasers (MSC) - Victoria, AUS
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) - AUS
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
http://www.torro.org.uk/
Email: les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM)
ICQ: 17296776
------------------------------------------------------
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031
From: "Peter Tristram" [petertri at midcoast.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: ocean temps
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 22:04:47 +1100
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The Manly Hydraulics site http://marlin.mhl.nsw.gov.au/data/csiroday.html
showsan interesting selection of ocean temperatures down the East Coast. 25
degree plus water pulsing down must increase convection and ECL chances.
Comments?
Pedro
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032
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 22:59:10 +1100
From: David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au]
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To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Townsville Radar
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Hi..
Has anyone looked at Townsville Radar lately..
Dave
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| Document: 000316.htm
Updated: 18 March 2000 |
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