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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Friday, 17 March 2000 |
From Subject -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 001 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) A request of severe weather webmasters 002 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud????? 003 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] On rating naders in Aus? 004 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] On rating naders in Aus? 005 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Townsville Radar 006 "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] On rating naders in Aus? 007 "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] Severe Storms, E NSW, Monday Afternoon? 008 "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] On rating naders in Aus? 009 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Townsville Radar 010 "dann weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.a Severe Storms, E NSW, Monday Afternoon? 011 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] On rating naders in Aus? 012 "David Croan" [wxbustchase at hotmail.com] Severe Storms, E NSW, Monday Afternoon? 013 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #516 014 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Storms.. Central West Plains. 015 "Clyve Herbert" [cadence at rubix.net.au] 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud????? 016 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Bellenden Ker 1999 Rainfall 017 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Cyclone located at Qld. 018 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Heavy rain on NSW South Coast 019 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #516 020 "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au] Looking good in the East 021 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #516 022 Malcolm Ninnes [NinnesM at franklins.com.au] touring the countryside 023 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] A hot one in SA and Victoria 024 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud????? 025 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Soutnern Lows 026 "Clyve Herbert" [cadence at rubix.net.au] Thargomindah......with apologies to the locals. 027 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Tropical Cyclone Olga (20S) - WA 028 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] A hot one in SA and STA for SA 029 "Rhett Blanch" [rblanch at eganassociates.com.au Thargomindah......with apologies to the locals. 030 Chas & Helen Osborn [hosborn at tassie.net.au] Tasmanian Storm Warning 031 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Thargomindah......with apologies to the locals. 032 paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Temps -v- DP's 033 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Tomorrow's NSW meeting - what if there are storms ? 034 paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Yohoo at Last 035 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] NSW ASWA meeting 036 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Another SWA for SA 037 "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com] Temps -v- DP's -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 001 From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: A request of severe weather webmasters Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 13:05:20 GMT X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id IAA18514 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Back in January I made a plea to severe wx website operators to consider a permanent URL structure for their sites. I said, in part: >We have a problem developing. > >There are around a dozen web sites across the country that are >providing detailed and extremely useful descriptions of severe and >significant weather events. Together, they are spontaneuosly >developing a remarkable distributed database on the meteorological >events that most affect the community. > >As time roll on and the descriptions accumulate, however, finding the >one you want is becoming more difficult. And cross-linking to reports >between sites is fraught with danger as links change. > >My plea is for all site operators that feature weather descriptions to >develop a permanent URL structure that will both organise their >descriptions and data, and survive the inevitable moves between >Internet service providers. Several of the larger sites have already >done this. I would think that ASWA at some point will need to consider some means of indexing and cross-referencing the wealth of information on severe weather that is rapidly accumulating. In the meantime, I am keen to place links to event descriptions on the relevant news pages of my Australian Weather News. These are already indexed back to 1998, and are in chronological order back to 1996. Cross-referencing like this would at least achieve a simple indexing across reliable sites, and make it available immediately. I've set up a page at http://ausweather.simplenet.com/severewebs/ on which I've started listing those sites with permanent URLs, together with a brief description of their file structures. There are only my site and Australian Severe Weather there at present to give some idea of what's intended, but it could grow to be a useful working document for all severe weather site webmasters who want to link with confidence to other sites. If you would like to become part of this, have a look at the page and email me. -- Laurier Williams Australian Weather News & Links http://ausweather.simplenet.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 002 Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 16:59:26 -0500 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Subject: aus-wx: 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud????? To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id RAA06959 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Clyve wrote: > Having read your reply in respect of wall cloud generation, I am in > agreeance overall, however I have seen wall clouds of a type generated > under massive Cbs before they mature *to produce rain*. It is apparent > that the accelerated updraft lowers the condensation level by at times > several hundred metres or more. To some extent it may be possible to > attempt an updraft speed estimate by the base of the wallcloud to ground > height, having of course all of the relevant data. Yes, this was a case I did not discuss. When wall clouds form prior to the development of rain it is again caused by the updraft tapping the contact layer or lower region of the boundary layer where RH is higher, typically. "Accelerating updraft" does not lower the condensation level. You may be referring to something else that I am not aware of. However, the only other way, as I understand it, is to do so by lowering the pressure locally which is what happens in tornadoes. However, the storm scale pressure depression at the base of the updraft is typically only between about 0.5 mb to around 5 mb (Hectopascles) in the more extreme cases. Depressions of this magnitude are still insufficient to produce any appreciable lowering of the cloud base. Thanks for reminding me of the case I excluded! Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 003 Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 17:11:04 -0500 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Subject: aus-wx: On rating naders in Aus? To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id RAA11158 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Ira Fehlberg wrote: > Reading James's report on the brisse nader got me thinking about rating > naders. Should we rate a tornado on its average strength or on its max > strength? EG: what if a nader is clearly an f-2 for 90% of its life but > does reach f-4 strength for 10%? In most cases there wont be much of a > difference in wind speeds but the brissie nader and others clearly do have. > I know in the states they go on max speed, maybe we could come up with a > formula for life in relation to various wind speeds, what does everythink? Well, yes, you are correct, in the states we rate a tornado by its most intense destruction anywhere along the path. The F-scale is a damage scale and not really a wind-speed scale. The wind speeds assigned to the F-scale are only rough estimates. We really don't know how accurate these are but we have never believed them to be very accurate. Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 004 Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 08:45:22 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: On rating naders in Aus? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Ira and all, I nearly completed a reply last night, but Windows decided it wanted to crash first... It's certainly a valid point over how do we rate tornadoes using the F-scale, and Les also brings up a valid point over should we still use the F-scale. Currently, the F-scale states that the entire tornado path is rated according to strongest damage attributed to the tornado. So if 100 houses are damaged, 99 exhibit F2 damage, but one house exhibits F5 damage, then the entire track *should* be rated an F5. Whether or not they decide to the discount the house is a different story. But you can already see the problems with this. Not all houses are built in the same way, sone are older, others a newer, some may have been built well by reputable builders, other houses may have been built by shoddy builders. You could look at the position of the house, and then see if it was close to other houses, as you would expect the damage to be fairly uniform over a row of houses. But if the house was isolated, you might consider that the tornado strengthened considerably. As you said, Australia uses an average damage path, and rates it according to that. In my opinion, this is how the US should do it too! It gives a much more accurate representation of the damage path. However, it has to be something the entire world would use as a standard, or it'd make global tornado studies a nightmare! The '73 tornado exhibited a mixture of F1, F2 and F3 damage, with evidence to suggest F4 damage in some areas! But the track was rated a "high F2." I don't see any problem with using "high F2" or "low F4" as a break up term to assist in dividing the F-scale, but I believe some people aren't too happy with that. The 1992 Bucca tornado was rated an F4 as an average of the damage, but importantly in the official report it was labelled "...at least F4 damage." I've only seen some photos of the damage, and it certainly was good F4 damage, but I have a feeling that there was some uncertainity in the report as to what type of violent rating it should have been given... I have also heard good arguments over whether we should just label tornadoes weak, strong and violent. With the argument being it really doesn't matter if the tornado is F4/F5 - the fact is, it's a violent tornado! Similarly with F0/F1 and F2/F3 for weak/strong tornadoes. While I agree the Torro scale is broken up more - I guess I'm like many others, slightly old-fashioned and still likes the F-scale to an extent and wouldn't like to see it go. A formula could probably be derived through extensive studies to try and convert F-scales, but it'll never be perfect. Similar to rating hurricanes in the US, and TC's in Australia and the different wind speeds they use. There are formulas to try and convert them, but they're not always very accurate. Interestingly, the SS scale in the US is meant to be for a 10minute wind speed average!!! (Or is it five minutes?), anyway - over time, they've just been using a one minute wind speed average! Meaning that they've been rating their hurricanes higher than they really should have been. I must admit, I was almost happy to here this - as I remember being blasted many a time by a some what over-patriotic obnoxious yank for daring to compare out Cat 5 TC's with their Cat 5 hurricanes! :) (PS, I don't mean to offend anyone here, and certainly not our US friends on the list! Every US person on this list has been extremely kind and helpful!) Anthony Cornelius Ira Fehlberg wrote: > > Reading James's report on the brisse nader got me thinking about rating > naders. Should we rate a tornado on its average strength or on its max > strength? EG: what if a nader is clearly an f-2 for 90% of its life but > does reach f-4 strength for 10%? In most cases there wont be much of a > difference in wind speeds but the brissie nader and others clearly do have. > I know in the states they go on max speed, maybe we could come up with a > formula for life in relation to various wind speeds, what does everythink? > > Ira Fehlberg > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 005 Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 08:48:50 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Townsville Radar Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi David, It was certain impressive last night! A little too impressive actually :) Townsville radar tends to overestimate a fair bit - quite a few of the regional radars do. So the intensities can be made to look much more intense. The best way to tell is by thinking "Does this look real?" On the other end of the spectrum, some radars under-estimate. Perth is a prime example of this, and Brisbane also under-estimates. David Carroll wrote: > > Hi.. > > Has anyone looked at Townsville Radar lately.. > > Dave > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 006 From: "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: On rating naders in Aus? Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 23:19:25 -0000 Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times are always GMT X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com ----- Original Message ----- From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Sent: Thursday, March 16, 2000 10:45 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: On rating naders in Aus? > Hi Ira and all, > > I nearly completed a reply last night, but Windows decided it wanted to > crash first... Obviously this is an international problem then (: > While I agree the Torro scale is broken up more - I guess I'm like many > others, slightly old-fashioned and still likes the F-scale to an extent > and wouldn't like to see it go. The Fujita Scale was put forward by Fujita / Pearson in 1971, I believe. The Torro Scale was proposed in 1972.... (: Les (UK) ------------------------------------------------------ Les Crossan Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W UK Storm Chaser / Severe Weather Enthusiast http://freespace.virgin.net/les.crossan/index.htm Melbourne Storm Chasers (MSC) - Victoria, AUS http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/ Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) - AUS http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK http://www.torro.org.uk/ Email: les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM) ICQ: 17296776 ------------------------------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 007 X-Originating-IP: [137.111.140.103] From: "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Severe Storms, E NSW, Monday Afternoon? Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 15:19:15 PST Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Everyone, Just looking at the NGP model for Monday and it appears that we may just have the right ingredients for some severe storms in E NSW. The 300mb prognosis indicates an upper level trough just skirting the SE of NSW - although it doesn't appear to be very deep. Perhaps this is the one storm chasers have been waiting for? If the dew points remain as high as they have in recent days, there will be plenty of energy for any storms forming. - Paul G. ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 008 From: "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: On rating naders in Aus? Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 23:25:00 -0000 Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times are always GMT X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com ----- Original Message ----- From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Sent: Thursday, March 16, 2000 10:45 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: On rating naders in Aus? > Hi Ira and all, > > I nearly completed a reply last night, but Windows decided it wanted to > crash first... > > It's certainly a valid point over how do we rate tornadoes using the > F-scale, and Les also brings up a valid point over should we still use > the F-scale. Even more curiously (and slightly OT) the Torro Scale can be used in place of the Saffir - Simpson scale of TC / hurricane / typhoon intensity as it is an extension of the good old Beaufort Scale.... Les ------------------------------------------------------ Les Crossan Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W UK Storm Chaser / Severe Weather Enthusiast http://freespace.virgin.net/les.crossan/index.htm Melbourne Storm Chasers (MSC) - Victoria, AUS http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/ Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) - AUS http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK http://www.torro.org.uk/ Email: les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM) ICQ: 17296776 ------------------------------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 009 Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 18:44:14 -0500 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Townsville Radar To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id SAA28152 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Note, that in widespread precip, the C-band (~5 cm) radars will appear to 'underestimate' the intensities of all but nearby echoes as compared to S-band (~ 10 cm) radars. This is due to attenuation of C-band radar. C-band radars are about a factor of 10 more susceptible to attenuation than are S-band radars. The more extensive or heavier the precipitation, the worse will be the attenuation. Moreover, beam widths and pulse depths are other factors to be considered. Finally the radar calibration is, of course, a distinct factor as well. As I am sure everyone realizes, these major factors mentioned above are not the only factors but only the most important ones. Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 010 From: "dann weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Storms, E NSW, Monday Afternoon? Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 10:57:51 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Paul Graham wrote: ---->Perhaps this is the one storm chasers have been waiting for? The one?? The last week has been pretty fantastic for NSW storm wise and it looks like that will continue for the next 4-5 days. Don't know whether you've looked at the AVN LI or other models, but the next 4 days look like being great days with LI of -6 out west near Dubbo and Parkes. And Saturday is shaping up to be great day for chasing in NSW with -4 to -6 enveloping SE NSW. Monday is a long way off yet, and plenty of as promising stuff in between. Daniel Weatherhead weatherhead at ozemail.com.au ----- Original Message ----- From: Paul Graham [v_notch at hotmail.com] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Sent: Friday, March 17, 2000 10:19 AM Subject: aus-wx: Severe Storms, E NSW, Monday Afternoon? > Hi Everyone, > Just looking at the NGP model for Monday and it appears that we > may just have the right ingredients for some severe storms in E NSW. The > 300mb prognosis indicates an upper level trough just skirting the SE of NSW > - although it doesn't appear to be very deep. Perhaps this is the one storm > chasers have been waiting for? If the dew points remain as high as they > have in recent days, there will be plenty of energy for any storms forming. > - Paul G. > ______________________________________________________ > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 011 Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 19:22:16 -0500 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: On rating naders in Aus? To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id TAA04455 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Anthony and all: Note that I did not wish to do away with the F-scale. I meant to only mention that it was a damage scale and not a wind-speed scale. It really can not be a wind-speed scale until we can accurately measure those speeds. Moreover, it is not as if we here in the states disregard the structural integrity of the damaged structures. That is factored in. However, the F-scale is a very subjective scale and, unfortunate as it is, other factors can affect the ratings such as experience of the one doing the rating or biases of those responsible in the end for the final ratings. Texas Tech University in Lubbock TX has a wind engineering department that will sometimes send a team into a damage path when engineered structures have been damaged. They will go to these sites and evaluate what was damaged as well as what was not damaged. They will note what was moved and what was not moved. They will also find structural components that have become airborne and attempt to determine the trajectories these debris fragments have executed and the time they remain airborne. However, we have also noted, of course, that the surface roughness will affect local intensities as will the amount of airborne debris. We have also attempted the use of Doppler radar and photogramitry as means of estimating wind speeds. I have been involved in using both those tools to estimate wind speeds as well as numerous damage surveys. All these techniques also have their limitations. Much goes into the ratings. I would agree with Anthony that a mean intensity scale or damage scale is superior to the extreme along the path. Yes, Australia, in my humble opinion, does it the right way. To my knowledge we, in the states have never attempted a 5-minute or a 10-minute sustained wind estimate anywhere. We have always ranked tropical storms by a 1-minute sustained wind and gusts during a 10-minute period. I could be wrong but I believe this to be the case. In fact, in doing comparisons of radar and other means of wind estimation I was always happy that a 1-minute average was used because it was closer to what the radar measured. Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 012 X-Originating-IP: [203.0.101.2] From: "David Croan" [wxbustchase at hotmail.com] To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Storms, E NSW, Monday Afternoon? Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 11:43:19 EST Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Dann and all, >Paul Graham wrote: >---->Perhaps this is the one storm chasers have been waiting for? >The one?? The last week has been pretty fantastic for NSW storm wise and it >looks like that will continue for the next 4-5 days. Don't know whether >you've looked at the AVN LI or other models, but the next 4 days look like >being great days with LI of -6 out west near Dubbo and Parkes.There is no doubt that there is a quite broad region of instability over central NSW as there has been for a while. But the wind profile is very ordinary so I assume that Paul is providing a supercell prognosis. Still, I for one cant wait for Saturday as it is looking good for pulse severe storms or perhaps multicells. BTW your pics from earlier in the week were great. I went down to Camden and saw that Richmond storm but dismissed it as it looked very low topped and I wasn't detecting much in the way of static...a lesson learned I guess. Dave ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 013 From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #516 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 12:10:13 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > ; Buenos > > Aires has winter mean temps not too far out of line with Sydney's, > > but they get a few single-digit maxima most winters, and snow every > > few years. > > I read in some guide book that Buenos Aires has had snow only once this > century - in 1918. > I've seen it reported several times in the 1990's. Perhaps 1918 is the only time that substantial snow has settled? (as opposed to fallen?) Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 014 From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms.. Central West Plains. To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 12:09:07 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > Hey Blair, > > Did you happen to get any photos of it ?? > > james > > > >Saw an impressive cell somewhere over central NSW about 1300 today > >(was in the midst of flying from Brisbane to Melbourne, which is why > >you haven't heard too much from me lately) - don't know exactly > >where we were - maybe that was the cell that sparked the warning? > > > >Blair Trewin Unfortunately not - a pity because it had overshooting tops and the works (and a perspective from 10,000 metres is always different to that on the ground). I was actually taken rather by surprise, having been away at a conference and not seen a proper chart for several days. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 015 From: "Clyve Herbert" [cadence at rubix.net.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: RE: aus-wx: 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud????? Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 12:08:39 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Les, I was thinking of a recent tornadic event in Central Victoria where the enhanced updraft tapping into the boundary layer and surface layer which was very dry appeared to erode a hole in a small wall cloud where the updraft entered the wall cloud base (this was a rotating tornadic updraft). Kind regards, Clyve Herbert Les wrote: Yes, this was a case I did not discuss. When wall clouds form prior to the development of rain it is again caused by the updraft tapping the contact layer or lower region of the boundary layer where RH is higher, typically. "Accelerating updraft" does not lower the condensation level. You may be referring to something else that I am not aware of. However, the only other way, as I understand it, is to do so by lowering the pressure locally which is what happens in tornadoes. However, the storm scale pressure depression at the base of the updraft is typically only between about 0.5 mb to around 5 mb (Hectopascles) in the more extreme cases. Depressions of this magnitude are still insufficient to produce any appreciable lowering of the cloud base. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 016 From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bellenden Ker 1999 Rainfall To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 12:29:32 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > I presume the rain gauge is a tipping-bucket or some other type of > device? In other words where would one get a rain gauge capable of > holding the equivalent of 72 inches of rain (of course it always buckets > down up there..excuse the sick pun)..... >From the station photos, it looks like an especially extended version of a conventional gauge - looks 0.5-0.7m high, but no specific documentation that I saw. The site was moved slightly (30m) in 1996 to get it away from nearby vegetation. I would expect that the readings from the new site are more representative, and higher, than those from the old site (haven't analysed this in detail), but there is still lots of vegetation nearby (inevitable at that location), so it is likely that the true rainfall is even higher than what is reported. Incidentally, I will be doing an investigation over the next couple of months of all the major Australian temperature and rainfall extremes (highest max, lowest min, highest daily, monthly and annual rainfalls for all states). Hopefully I'll get the OK to put the findings on the external web - will keep you posted. Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 017 From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cyclone located at Qld. To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 12:35:54 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > IDW50Q00 > BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > Queensland Region > Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre > > Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this > warning. > > > TOP PRIORITY > TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1 > Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane > For 9.45am EST on Thursday the 16th of March 2000 > > A Cyclone Warning has been declared for coastal and island communities > between > Cooktown and Cardwell. > > As far as I know this failed to reach TC status, but has brought some very heavy rain to the coast between Innisfail and Prosperine; 252mm at Ingham, and widespread 100+ falls. Numerous flood warnings are in effect. Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 018 From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy rain on NSW South Coast To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 12:32:56 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > 6 hour 9 to 3 totals in for the South Coast and Southern Tablelands > are impressive: > > Merimbula 76 > Braidwood 42 > Moruya Heads 38 > Narooma and Nerriga 32 > Bombala 29 > Cooma AP 27 > > Even Canberra AP got 11 > > In eastern Vic, 31 at Combienbar and 30 at Mallacoota are the highest > in so far. > There were media reports of 250-350mm in the Pambula River catchments. I presume that these were from State Forests gauges (which I know exist, because I did a study of the area in an undergraduate project once), as no Bureau gauge recorded remotely close to this. The severity of the local flooding does suggest very heavy falls, at least locally. Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 019 From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #516 Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 01:44:18 GMT X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452 X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id UAA16772 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Curious, given that Buenos Aires is at the same latitude as Wollongong and the nearest elevation above ~50m is 100km away. I presume the extra snowiness is the result of colder ocean currents, + the way lows in winter tend to deepen more substantially once they get east of the constriction of the Andes. Laurier On Fri, 17 Mar 2000 12:10:13 +1100 (EST), Blair Trewin wrote: >> >> ; Buenos >> > Aires has winter mean temps not too far out of line with Sydney's, >> > but they get a few single-digit maxima most winters, and snow every >> > few years. >> >> I read in some guide book that Buenos Aires has had snow only once this >> century - in 1918. >> >I've seen it reported several times in the 1990's. Perhaps 1918 is the >only time that substantial snow has settled? (as opposed to fallen?) > >Blair > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 020 From: "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Looking good in the East Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 13:13:18 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 021 From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #516 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 13:50:11 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > Curious, given that Buenos Aires is at the same latitude as Wollongong > and the nearest elevation above ~50m is 100km away. I presume the > extra snowiness is the result of colder ocean currents, + the way lows > in winter tend to deepen more substantially once they get east of the > constriction of the Andes. > > Laurier > > I suspect the additional continentality resulting from the extension of the landmass to the mid-50s south is a more significant influence. Further inland at similar latitudes in South America, winter temperatures can approach American levels of variability, although with a higher base; I saw a month's data from a SE Bolivian station once (in July) which had maxima of 40 and 10 within a few days of each other. Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 022 From: Malcolm Ninnes [NinnesM at franklins.com.au] To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: touring the countryside Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 14:22:07 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2448.0) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com As of 2:30pm Sydney time, Max King and Matt Smith are separately touring SW of Sydney, out towards Camden area. Phone numbers for updates are: Max King 0412-208-928 Matt Smith 0419-638-358 Malcolm Ninnes Unix Systems Admin / Operations Support National Technical Services - Franklins Ltd Ph. (02) 9722-1862 ninnesm at franklins.com.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 023 From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Subject: aus-wx: A hot one in SA and Victoria To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 14:34:14 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Today is proving abnormally hot in SA and Victoria. Numerous SA stations are reporting in the 37-39 range at present (including 37 at Adelaide), although nowhere had got to 40 at last report. A lot of late-season records could be broken (Adelaide's previous hottest so late in autumn is 38.8 on 23 March 1938), as could some records for latest-ever 40-degree day (13 March at Adelaide and 11 March at Snowtown, for example). Victoria is also hot (widely over 30, and up to 35 in places), but this is not of record-setting potential, especially after Melbourne got 38.7 on 22 March 1998. Melbourne's max so far is 33.0. If it gets to 35, it will only rank 21st for latest date over 35 - one needs to go another week forward for it to be a rare event (only 1940 has seen a 35-degree day later than March 25). Melbourne's mean maximum for March is also running well above average (27.4, compared with a monthly mean of 23.8). This won't challenge 1940's record of 28.9 (arguably the most exceptional monthly mean in the Melbourne record for any month), but currently ranks 3rd, and should give us another month in decile 10 (cutoff 25.5), even allowing for it to drop at the climatologically expected rate in the later part of the month. Unlike February, hot Marches have not been a feature of recent years in Melbourne - there has only been one March with a mean maximum in decile 10 (1985) in the last 25 years. The mean minimum of 16.8 is currently running equal to the 1974 record, and should come in in the top five. The monthly mean of 22.1 is also somewhat above the existing record of 21.4 (1940, remarkably enough, had a mean minimum of only 13.1, just above the climatological normal). Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 024 Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 23:02:56 -0500 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Subject: RE: aus-wx: 9th March Pics - Wall Cloud????? To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id XAA09337 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Clyve, > > I was thinking of a recent tornadic event in Central Victoria where the > enhanced updraft tapping into the boundary layer and surface layer which was > very dry appeared to erode a hole in a small wall cloud where the updraft > entered the wall cloud base (this was a rotating tornadic updraft). I am unfamiliar with anything like this. There are a couple of possibilities that I am familiar with. I have seen wall clouds eroded away by the RFD and not by surface air. The second possibility is that if the storm overtakes dry air, as they often can do when they outrun the low-level jet and the most tongue and support, you will see the wall cloud simply appear to dissipate or "lift". And the storm will weaken and dissipate. But, what you describe, I have never before observed nor read of. It is interesting speculation. Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 025 Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2000 23:50:24 -0800 From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Soutnern Lows Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Nice to see some of those lows down south in the Boms four day forecast pics, makes me wanna see winter again. :-) Lindsay P. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 026 From: "Clyve Herbert" [cadence at rubix.net.au] To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Thargomindah......with apologies to the locals. Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 16:09:59 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Suggestions please for a new humour web page being written for the MSC site:- Idea:- things to do in Thargomindah when trapped by floodwater (bearing in mind that you may be trapped for between 8 & 16 weeks as has been the case recently) All suggestions greatly appreciated, but to get you started, here are just a few ideas to get you in the right mood: * bindii - extraction kiosk (a 3 pronged seed that penetrates thongs, 1" thick leather & tyres) * buy drinks for the locals (guaranteed to pass one night) * develop a smelling scale for the local water (how many of you have benn in close contact with very old bore water????) * encourage friendly competition between the 2 motels by consistently checking out of one and into the other * chat up the local publican's daughter because if you see the local publican you'll be able to walk on water * dream of going to Cunnamulla PS: for those who have no idea what we are talking about, think of the last place you'd want to be for 8 weeks ........... Clyve Herbert ASWA - Victoria +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 027 X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 16:00:15 +1000 To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com] From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: Tropical Cyclone Olga (20S) - WA Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. The BoM has named Tropical Cyclone 20S off WA Olga, as has been expected for a couple of days. Latast BoM and JTWC info below. The low off Qld yesterday did not make TC strength before crossing the coast near Ingham as a trough at about 9PM last night. Regards, Carl. IDW50W03 BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION UPDATE Issued at 12:50 pm WST on Friday, 17 March 2000 BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH Tropical cyclone Olga [Severity Category 1] was located at noon near 17.0S 112.5E, that is 570 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth and moving southwest at 8 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is not expected to affect the Western Australian coast in the next 48 hours. 690 WTXS31 PGTW 170300 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNING NR 004 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z8 --- NEAR 17.6S4 113.7E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 113.7E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 18.2S1 112.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 18.9S8 111.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 19.4S4 109.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 20.0S2 107.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.8S6 113.4E9. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS 12 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. TC 20S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EAST OF THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES AN UPPER- LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT IS ENHANCING THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SERVE TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF TC 20S AS IT TRACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG 171351Z8) AND 180300Z2 (DTG 180151Z6).// BT #0001 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. Email: carls at ace-net.com.au Website: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm Current Cyclone Information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 028 X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58 Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 16:31:16 +1030 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Subject: aus-wx: A hot one in SA and STA for SA Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey Everyone Just to update you Parafield AP and Edinburgh AP both reached 41c Edinburgh AP and Roseworthy are still sitting on 40c but Parafield AP is now 39c Also and STA has just been put out for the Western side of the the state IDW16S02 BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY SOUTH AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE Issued at 3:45 pm on Friday, 17 March 2000 For people in the West Coast east of Ceduna, Eastern and Lower Eyre Peninsulas, Yorke Peninsula and the Northwest Pastoral west of the Stuart Highway. A strong front and line of thunderstorms, located along the west coast of Eyre Peninsula at 3 pm, is moving rapidly east. Severe winds and areas of raised dust are likely in these districts as the front and thunderstorms move through. Localised damage may occur and you are advised to take sensible precautions. For example, secure loose outside objects, move vehicles under cover, and drive with extra caution. Later Kathryn Jolly At 02:34 PM 17/03/00 +1100, you wrote: >Today is proving abnormally hot in SA and Victoria. Numerous SA >stations are reporting in the 37-39 range at present (including 37 >at Adelaide), although nowhere had got to 40 at last report. A lot >of late-season records could be broken (Adelaide's previous hottest >so late in autumn is 38.8 on 23 March 1938), as could some records >for latest-ever 40-degree day (13 March at Adelaide and 11 March at >Snowtown, for example). > >Victoria is also hot (widely over 30, and up to 35 in places), but >this is not of record-setting potential, especially after Melbourne >got 38.7 on 22 March 1998. Melbourne's max so far is 33.0. If it >gets to 35, it will only rank 21st for latest date over 35 - one >needs to go another week forward for it to be a rare event (only >1940 has seen a 35-degree day later than March 25). > >Melbourne's mean maximum for March is also running well above average >(27.4, compared with a monthly mean of 23.8). This won't challenge >1940's record of 28.9 (arguably the most exceptional monthly mean >in the Melbourne record for any month), but currently ranks 3rd, and >should give us another month in decile 10 (cutoff 25.5), even allowing >for it to drop at the climatologically expected rate in the later >part of the month. Unlike February, hot Marches have not been a >feature of recent years in Melbourne - there has only been one March with >a mean maximum in decile 10 (1985) in the last 25 years. The mean >minimum of 16.8 is currently running equal to the 1974 record, and >should come in in the top five. The monthly mean of 22.1 is also >somewhat above the existing record of 21.4 (1940, remarkably enough, >had a mean minimum of only 13.1, just above the climatological normal). > >Blair Trewin > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 029 From: "Rhett Blanch" [rblanch at eganassociates.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Thargomindah......with apologies to the locals. Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 17:05:41 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com As part of 2 bus loads of 16 year olds on a high school excursion we escaped floodwaters further west during November 1989 and ended up being stuck at Thargomindah for a several days (but long enough I can tell you). So here are some ideas: *Spend every last cent on the local pay phone unsuccessfully explaining to your parents where the hell you are. *Behold the beauty of the steaming toilet bowl (a result of the boiling local water)...who needs Old Faithful. *Discover just how many hours you can sleep in one day. *Find a vehicle and do laps around town just so you can use the air-conditioning (and if your are really lucky you'll find a coach and watch a movie) - not too long though or you'll get dizzy. Beware of these suggestions thought as our bus trip subsequently descended into madness and I don't think my whole year of school were ever the same again. ----- Original Message ----- From: Clyve Herbert [cadence at rubix.net.au] To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Sent: Friday, March 17, 2000 4:09 PM Subject: aus-wx: Thargomindah......with apologies to the locals. > Suggestions please for a new humour web page being written for the MSC > site:- > > Idea:- > things to do in Thargomindah when trapped by floodwater (bearing in mind > that you may be trapped for between 8 & 16 weeks as has been the case > recently) > > All suggestions greatly appreciated, but to get you started, here are just a > few ideas to get you in the right mood: > > * bindii - extraction kiosk (a 3 pronged seed that penetrates thongs, 1" > thick leather & tyres) > * buy drinks for the locals (guaranteed to pass one night) > * develop a smelling scale for the local water (how many of you have benn in > close contact with very old bore water????) > * encourage friendly competition between the 2 motels by consistently > checking out of one and into the other > * chat up the local publican's daughter because if you see the local > publican you'll be able to walk on water > * dream of going to Cunnamulla > > PS: for those who have no idea what we are talking about, think of the last > place you'd want to be for 8 weeks ........... > > Clyve Herbert > ASWA - Victoria > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 030 Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 18:17:05 +1100 From: Chas & Helen Osborn [hosborn at tassie.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Tasmanian Storm Warning Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Everyone Our first Storm warning for the year. Low Rocky Point is the closest I have seen one to Strahan. Initial Storm Warning For southwestern Tasmanian coastal waters between South East Cape and Low Rocky Point A low pressure system south of Western Australia is expected to deepen and move to the southwest of Tasmania overnight with a cold front to cross early tomorrow. Chas Strahan Tasmania +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 031 X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32) Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 18:38:42 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Thargomindah......with apologies to the locals. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Beware of these suggestions thought as our bus trip subsequently descended >into madness and I don't think my whole year of school were ever the same >again. Hi groupLooks like i'm off to chase and see what I come up with. South-West is looking very good at this stage.If anyone wants to keep me posted on Radar and satpic updates, my mobile is 0412-208928MaxLOL!!!!!!!!!!!! very funny :) Certainly a place that leaves lots of memories.. we were only there for 1 night... but the memories will live with us chasers forever. I cant imagine what a few days would have been like! Just got back from a storm chase as well, chaser convergence at Luddenham where me, daniel weatherhead and max king met up. Nice little storm on the ranges got progressivly closer and we then took off towards penrith, where just as it was about to move off the ranges it died... should have a few nice photos though. Matt Smith >----- Original Message ----- >From: Clyve Herbert >To: Aussie Weather >Sent: Friday, March 17, 2000 4:09 PM >Subject: aus-wx: Thargomindah......with apologies to the locals. > > >> Suggestions please for a new humour web page being written for the MSC >> site:- >> >> Idea:- >> things to do in Thargomindah when trapped by floodwater (bearing in mind >> that you may be trapped for between 8 & 16 weeks as has been the case >> recently) >> >> All suggestions greatly appreciated, but to get you started, here are just >a >> few ideas to get you in the right mood: >> >> * bindii - extraction kiosk (a 3 pronged seed that penetrates thongs, 1" >> thick leather & tyres) >> * buy drinks for the locals (guaranteed to pass one night) >> * develop a smelling scale for the local water (how many of you have benn >in >> close contact with very old bore water????) >> * encourage friendly competition between the 2 motels by consistently >> checking out of one and into the other >> * chat up the local publican's daughter because if you see the local >> publican you'll be able to walk on water >> * dream of going to Cunnamulla >> >> PS: for those who have no idea what we are talking about, think of the >last >> place you'd want to be for 8 weeks ........... >> >> Clyve Herbert >> ASWA - Victoria >> >> >> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >> message. >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ >> > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 032 From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 18:40:32 +0930 Subject: aus-wx: Temps -v- DP's X-mailer: Pegasus Mail for Win32 (v3.12a) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Howdy all. Just wondering what is the bst Temp -v- DP that people have personally seen? Mine is Temp 35 DP of 29 Thats bloody hot & very sticky! Paul from a weather starved Darwin (oohh there has been some nice storms around - but all inland - but have had about 20mm of rain or thereabouts most nights/early mornings). Good luck to all you southerners - hope there are plenty of emails to read shortly +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 033 From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Tomorrow's NSW meeting - what if there are storms ? Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 20:25:59 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Still looking the goods for storms tomorrow, but just to be certain leave Sydney for Lithgow or Bowral. LI's have been scaled down a little, but CAPE has been scaled up to 2000 just south of Bathurst. Upper winds pretty poor though. So what about tomorrow's meeting if there are chaseble storms ? The models look similar for Sunday an Monday too. Michael Thompson http://thunder.simplenet.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 034 From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 19:55:42 +0930 Subject: aus-wx: Yohoo at Last X-mailer: Pegasus Mail for Win32 (v3.12a) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all. Great storm here tonight - nice guster, lightning show (mainly cc at the moment) and some heavy rain is washing away the impending gloom of the dry season........... at last! Paul in a wet stormy Darwin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.2 035 Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 21:54:56 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, mchantry at towerlife.com.au, Domenic Marciano , Larry OBrien , "Roger Nurse" , "Glen" From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: NSW ASWA meeting Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Just a reminder of the NSW ASWA meeting tomorrow night. (And there is also one in Victoria for the Vics) Please be aware that some of us may turn up around the 6pm mark or so because of chasing and that the meeting starts at around 7:30pm officially this time around. Mario should be home regardless. Just remember, the talk is on Supercells by Paul Graham. See you all there. Jimmy Deguara +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 036 X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.0.58 Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 22:20:18 +1030 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Subject: aus-wx: Another SWA for SA Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com SEVERE WIND ADVICE Issued at 9:50 pm on Friday, 17 March 2000 For people in the southern tip of the Yorke Peninsula and Kangaroo Island. A vigorous front with thunderstorms was crossing the western margin of Kangaroo Island at 10pm and is moving steadily eastwards. Severe winds are likely in these districts as the front and thunderstorms move through. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 037 X-Originating-IP: [210.84.136.47] From: "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com] To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Temps -v- DP's Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 04:16:42 PST Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com My "best" was an air temp of 36 and DP of 28 in Darwin mid November 98, and quite a few others close to that. I think a few days I spent in Kakadu and Katherine the November just gone would've been close to that at least. Probably higher air temp (39-40) and slightly lower DP 25-26 though. This is a guess admittedly but all I know is that in Pine Creek I was in the hottest weather I could remember - no breeze and clear sky - best storm I have ever seen that night though. Half a dozen cells all going ballistic electrically - awesome stuff :). ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Document: 000317.htm
Updated: 18 March 2000 |
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