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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Saturday, 18 March 2000 |
From Subject
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001 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Olga (20S) update
002 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Cyclone Olga could trouble the SW
003 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Nice cell near Blanchetown, SA
004 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Adelaide Frontal Summary
005 Susan Puddifer [susanpud at healey.com.au] TC Olga
006 Susan Puddifer [susanpud at healey.com.au] TC Olga
007 "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au] Sydney, Saturday-wx
008 Andrew Boskell [a_boskell at yahoo.com] Tasmanian Storm Warning
009 "Bill Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au] Thargomindah......with apologies to the locals.
010 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] Storms on 17 March
011 "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au] Sydney-wx Saturday
012 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Storm Chase
013 "Matthew Piper" [mjpiper at ozemail.com.au] Storms on 17 March
014 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] On rating naders in Aus?
015 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] Bellenden Ker 1999 Rainfall
016 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Olga
017 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Bereau Tropical Cyclone Warnings
018 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] Warm night.S
019 "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au] Storm Chase
020 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Bellenden Ker 1999 Rainfall
021 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Bereau Tropical Cyclone Warnings
022 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Olga may recurve towards coast
023 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Bereau Tropical Cyclone Warnings
024 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Bellenden Ker 1999 Rainfall
025 "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] Bereau Tropical Cyclone Warnings
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 01:31:07 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Olga (20S) update
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
Here is the latest BoM and JTWC information on TC Olga (20S). The next BoM
update is probably due in an hour or so.
It is well NNW of Exmouth and currently posing no threat to WA.
Regards,
Carl.
IDW50W03
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION UPDATE
Issued at 6:45 pm WST on Friday, 17 March 2000
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
Tropical cyclone Olga [Severity Category 1] was located at 6pm near 17.7S
111.3E, that is 555 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth and moving southwest
at 15 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is not expected to affect the Western
Australian coast in the next 48 hours.
323
WTXS31 PGTW 171500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OLGA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- NEAR 17.3S1 111.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 111.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 18.1S0 109.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 18.9S8 108.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 19.4S4 107.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 19.6S6 105.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 111.1E4.
TC 20S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 171130Z3 INFRARED AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171032Z4 SSMI PASS INDICATE A FULLY EXPOSED,
BROAD, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE WEST. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SATELLITE
WINDS PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STRONG GRADIENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST, IS
MAKING FOR DIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE, THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAT HAS PASSED, MAINTAINING STEERING FLOW AT
LOWER LEVELS FOR THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SERVE TO INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT OF TC 20S AS IT TRACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AT A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z2 (DTG 180151Z6) AND 181500Z5 (DTG
181351Z9).//
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Website: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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002
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Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 01:24:04 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Cyclone Olga could trouble the SW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
The following is from the Friday 12:43pm NW Cyclone outlook
Remarks: The tropical cyclone is expected to move southwest well offshore from
the WA coast in the next 24-48 hours before recurving to the southeast late on
Sunday or Monday. It poses no threat to the WA coastline in the next 48 hours.
However on Monday it may cause strengthening winds in the southwest of the
State. Rain associated with the cyclone should spread across northern parts of
the Southwest Land Division during Saturday.
and for Perth:
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Sunday : Cloudy, rain periods developing. Min: 17 Max: 27
Monday : Strong squally winds developing. Min: 18 Max: 32
Tuesday : Few showers. Min: 17 Max: 23
Jacob
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003
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Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 08:26:17 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Nice cell near Blanchetown, SA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi again,
There is currently (timestamp: 08:25am local) a nice cell near Blanchetown,
South Australia (RADAR Image: Sellick Local 170300 21:30UTC)
Might be a bit of activity up that way today if anyone is chasing or
thinking of it. The cells seem to be moving Easterly so maybe some activity
around the SA/NSW/Vic border.
Andrew Wall
South Australia.
State representative for S.A. and N.T. Division of the Australian Severe
Weather Association Inc.
Webmaster of The official South Australian Severe Weather watch homepage.
South Australian Severe Weather page - http://sastorms.virtualave.net
ASWA Inc. - http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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004
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Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 08:18:19 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Adelaide Frontal Summary
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
With the passage of the front, thunderstorms were reported in several areas
around the western parts and some northern parts of the state. No
thunderstorm activity was reported in the Adelaide area. Wind gusts were
strong but not damaging and very little rain came out of it. Most of the
activity was on the Eyre Peninsula where storms raced through several
areas, but moved off to the SE before reaching the Fleurieu Peninsula and
surrounding areas. Before the front came through, Adelaide had a top
temerature of 38.2c with raised dust and strong winds. Although this front
looked interesting on Satpics by the time it had reached Adelaide I think
it had lost a bit of power.
Andrew Wall
South Australia.
State representative for S.A. and N.T. Division of the Australian Severe
Weather Association Inc.
Webmaster of The official South Australian Severe Weather watch homepage.
South Australian Severe Weather page - http://sastorms.virtualave.net
ASWA Inc. - http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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005
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 09:07:51 +1000
From: Susan Puddifer [susanpud at healey.com.au]
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To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Olga
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Susan from Balmain
I'm probably misreading the satellite pics, or my memory is playing
tricks on me - but does it appear as if Olga has moved a tad southeast?
Susan
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Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 09:05:10 +1000
From: Susan Puddifer [susanpud at healey.com.au]
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Subject: TC Olga
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Susan from Balmain
I'm probably misreading the satellite pics, or my memory is playing
tricks on me - but does it appear as if Olga has moved a tad southeast?
Susan
007
From: "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney, Saturday-wx
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 10:03:13 +1000
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Good Morning group,
Given that i have to go out relatively early this
morning to drop a friend off, there is a strong possibility that I will head off
to chase without the opportunity of coming home first to check the radar and
satpics.
An early check of the radar shows some interesting
developments marching forward at the rate of knots in a North-Easterly direction
thru the Riverina area of NSW.
So all in all it could prove to be a very
interesting day :)
I would appreciate radar and satpic updates, as i
will not be able to access my own system today.
My number is 0412 208 928
Max
008
Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 15:14:13 -0800 (PST)
From: Andrew Boskell [a_boskell at yahoo.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tasmanian Storm Warning
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
G'day Chas,
Did you guy's get any thunderstorm activity down there
this morning? I observed two thunderstorms east of
Devonport between 5am to 6:30am. They were fairly
active but were fast moving!
Andrew.
--- Chas & Helen Osborn wrote:
> Hello Everyone
>
> Our first Storm warning for the year.
> Low Rocky Point is the closest I have seen one to
> Strahan.
>
>
> Initial Storm Warning
> For southwestern Tasmanian coastal waters between
> South East Cape and
> Low
> Rocky Point
>
> A low pressure system south of Western
> Australia is expected to deepen and move to the
> southwest of Tasmania
> overnight
> with a cold front to cross early tomorrow.
>
>
> Chas
> Strahan Tasmania
>
>
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
=====
Andrew Boskell
"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
http://im.yahoo.com
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009
From: "Bill Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Thargomindah......with apologies to the locals.
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 09:33:01 +1000
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Dear All,
As an "ex-pat" from "heartbreak corner", I found the postings to the list on
this subject very interesting - also comments made earlier during and after
the great chase.
Before you get your collective nickers in a knot, I am not at all offended
by the comments - rather, bemused once again by the obvious differences in
thought processes between city and bush dwellers. There is a tolerance for
the unusual in bush folk which is rarely obvious once you get the smell of
the "big smoke" in your nostrils. The old adage - "keep your mouth shut and
your ears open" - is alive and well out there.
I recall with fond memories watching an orange peeling competition in the
Thargo community hall (dance night). The longest unbroken length of peel won
the competition. Unusual, different, even strange ? Consider what the locals
would have thought of a mob of people travelling thousands of kilometers to
catch a glimpse of a bolt of lightening !
As for getting flooded in for a while - well, shit happens, regularly. The
only excitement associated with that is going down to the creek to watch a 3
to 4 meter high wall of water and debris flow down a dry creek bed - a sight
which I have seen often in a number of river systems in that area. Quite
spectacular. Then it is back to life as usual. Get the flood boats and the
big truck (especially constructed for the job, and which some of you may
have seen) out and attempt to make life as comfortable as possible for those
more seriously threatened by the conditions.
I have noted from the postings that there are some very sensitive people on
this list. During periods of sensitivity, give some thought to the very wide
range of environment Australians have to survive in, and amuse themselves
in. Yep, we're all different.
By the way, if any of you have contacts out there, they too would appreciate
the humor proposed for the MSC web site - that's the kind of people they
are.
Regards,
Bill, from a once-again-soggy, but currently sunny Proserpine.
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010
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 11:25:10 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
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To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Storms on 17 March
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Does anyone know if there was rain in the blaxland - glenbrook -
Faulkonbridge area late yesterday (Friday) in storms?
Some brief but intense falls on the Hume norht of Marulen - heavy enough
to stop traffice at around 4.30 but again,m no data available or is
there?
Cheers,
Don White
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011
From: "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney-wx Saturday
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 11:25:21 +1000
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Hi once again group
Even though nothing is apparent at this stage, i
think I will jump in the Storm Beast and head for Lithgow. there still
seems to be a precip line of some description advancing Nth-East from the
Riverina, so hopefully it will get some uplift as it heads in over the Mountains
and produce something worthwhile. If it doesn't, well.........I spose I can
still give my Lithgow Workmens Club Memberrship a workout :)
All updates will be most appreciated.
Max King Mobile 0412 208 928
Regards to all,
Max
012
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Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 11:40:29 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chase
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone,
I am going out chasing with Geoff Thurtell from about 12pm onwards. Anyone
want to tag along are welcome.
My phone is 0408020468 if anyone wants to tag along or know what we are
observing. I will be leaving at the latest 4:30pm and heading to the ASWA
meeting.
If anyone can give Paul Graham a lift, his phone number at work
92001683 and home 98882527. He is working today.
See the NSW guys at the meeting. I am bringing quite a few resources for
people to have a look at.
Jimmy Deguara
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
013
From: "Matthew Piper" [mjpiper at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms on 17 March
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 11:51:18 +1100
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Hi Don,
I only received 0.4mm here in Blaxland which fell between 4 and 4:30pm.
However I did hear on the radio that there was some flash flooding up at
Wentworth Falls with this storm.
Matthew Piper
----- Original Message -----
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Saturday, March 18, 2000 12:25 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Storms on 17 March
> Does anyone know if there was rain in the blaxland - glenbrook -
> Faulkonbridge area late yesterday (Friday) in storms?
> Some brief but intense falls on the Hume norht of Marulen - heavy enough
> to stop traffice at around 4.30 but again,m no data available or is
> there?
>
> Cheers,
> Don White
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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014
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 11:22:00 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: On rating naders in Aus?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Currently, the F-scale states that the entire tornado path is rated
>according to strongest damage attributed to the tornado. So if 100
>houses are damaged, 99 exhibit F2 damage, but one house exhibits F5
>damage, then the entire track *should* be rated an F5.
Hi all.
Maybe we should change the way we regularly describe the nader, while at
the same time keeping the F ratings. For example, a nader that exhibited
peak damage at F4, but averaged F2 over it's length could become an F2[F4],
this little shorthand letting us know both relevent bits of info....
Just a thought.....
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
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015
X-Sender: paisley at mail.cobweb.com.au
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 11:25:25 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bellenden Ker 1999 Rainfall
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Just out of interest Blair, what are the average and extreme temperatures
at BK. I know it's over 1500m asl. with a great deal of cloud [the
vegetation is tropical cloud forest - very rare in Oz]. Do they ever get
frosts?
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
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016
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 10:55:50 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Olga
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
>Susan from Balmain
>
>I'm probably misreading the satellite pics, or my memory is playing
>tricks on me - but does it appear as if Olga has moved a tad southeast?
>
>Susan
If you run the JCU MetSat 24 hr movie at
ftp://ftp.ece.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausmovie.gif you will notice that TC
Olga is still moving WSW.
Also an interesting looking area developing in the Timor Sea.
Regards,
Carl.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net]
017
To: "aus-wx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
"Jane ONeill" ,
"TONEX (Vic)"
Subject: aus-wx: Bereau Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 01:00:21 -0000
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times are always GMT
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
List -
Would someone please post on the aus-wx
pages the standard BoM format for issuing TC warnings from the stage that they
form to when they start blowing things away???? I normally gloss them over then
junk them and there's never a TC advice / warning around when you need
one!
Being in a temperate latitude makes us TC /
hurricane free....
(email them to les.crossan at virgin.net) if you prefer
(:
All will become clear,
shortly...
TIA,
Les
------------------------------------------------------
Les Crossan
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N
01-30W
UK Storm Chaser / Severe Weather
Enthusiast
http://freespace.virgin.net/les.crossan/index.htm
Melbourne
Storm Chasers (MSC) - Victoria, AUS
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) - AUS
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
http://www.torro.org.uk/
Email:
les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM)
ICQ: 17296776
------------------------------------------------------
018
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 13:48:06 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Warm night.S
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sydney's min temp this morning (and yesterday morning) was 22 degrees -
both appear to be day records for 17th and 18 March respectively.
Also, Canberra's overnight min temp of 21.3 appears to be 2nd highest
ever in March and a record for the 2nd half of March.
Perhaps,if you get a chance, Blair, could you confirm these facts or
correct them. Thanks
Don W
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019
From: "Weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au]
To: "aussieweather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chase
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 15:08:37 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey everyone,
A the moment, the Sydney region looks pretty sparse in terms
of activity, so Matt and myself will head north-wards to Freemans Reach, and
then maybe onto the Hunter if things look impressive. Only the sky will
tell.
Our mobiles are:
Matt: 0407 069693
Daniel 0402 091479
.
020
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 14:38:50 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bellenden Ker 1999 Rainfall
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Just out of interest Blair, what are the average and extreme temperatures
>at BK. I know it's over 1500m asl. with a great deal of cloud [the
>vegetation is tropical cloud forest - very rare in Oz]. Do they ever get
>frosts?
>
>Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
>paisley at cobweb.com.au
>http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
I know they get a few frosts every year on the tablelands immediately
behind BK, I used to live near Ravenshoe and had many frosty mornings
there, but doubt that much in the way of frosts could occur in the extremly
dense forests on the mountain itself, but I have not climbed it, so I do
not know if it thins out up there.
Regards,
Carl.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
021
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 15:34:15 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bereau Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Les.
> List - Would someone please post on the aus-wx pages the standard
>BoM format for issuing TC warnings from the stage that they form to when
>they start blowing things away???? I normally gloss them over then junk
>them and there's never a TC advice / warning around when you need one!
>Being in a temperate latitude makes us TC / hurricane free.... (email
>them to les.crossan at virgin.net) if you prefer (: All will become clear,
>shortly... TIA, Les
>------------------------------------------------------
The format the BoM uses depends on the situation.
When a tropical low forms that has the potential to develop into a cyclone,
the BoM issues Shipping warnings, where the position, central pressure,
direction of movement, and other information are given. All distances are
given in nautical miles and speeds in knots in keeping with international
maritime standards. These will continue to be issued at usually 6 hour
intervals until the winds get below gale force again, but may be more
frequent if there is a major change in the status of the system.
Here is a Shipping warning:
IDW01Q00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0700UTC 26 FEBRUARY 2000
GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
= SITUATION
A developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1000 hectopascals
centred at 260600 UTC near 16.5 south 149.0 east moving west at 5 knots.
Position fair.
= AREA AFFECTED
Within 180 nm in northeast quadrant.
within 60 nm remainder.
= FORECAST
W to NW winds 33 to 40 knots in the northeast quadrant. Expect maximum
winds to increase to 35/40 knots over remaining waters during the next 12
hours.
Seas and swells increasing to 3 to 4 metres
Forecast position at 261800 UTC 16.6S 148.2E central pressure 995 hPa.
Forecast position at 270600 UTC 16.7S 147.0E central pressure 990 hPa.
= REMARKS
Nil
= WEATHER BRISBANE +
If a cyclone is unlikely to affect coastal or island communities within 48
hours, the BoM may issue a tropical cyclone UPDATE, which will contain the
position, distance in kilometers and direction from one or more placers,
and direction of movement and speed in kilometers per hour.
Here is a tropical cyclone UPDATE:
IDW50W03
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION UPDATE
Issued at 6:40 am WST on Saturday, 18 March 2000
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
Tropical cyclone Olga [Severity Category 2] was located at 6 am WST near 18.4S
109.7E, that is 600 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and moving west
southwest at
16 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is not expected to affect the Western
Australian coast in the next 48 hours.
When a system is forming closer to the coast or island communities or moves
closer to the coast or island communities and there is a possibility of
gales affecting an area within 48 hours and more than 24 hours, a CYCLONE
WATCH is issued. These have the area under watch, the position of the low
or cyclone, the distance in kilometers and direction from one or more
places, central pressure, and will have maximum wind gusts in kilometers
per hour if the system is a cyclone, along with other information. These
are usually issued at 6 hourly intervals.
Here is a CYCLONE WATCH:
IDW50Q00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
message.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane For 1100 am EST on Saturday
the 26th of February 2000
A cyclone watch has been declared for coastal and island communities
between Cooktown and Cardwell.
At 11am a tropical low with central pressure 1000 hPa was centred near
latitude 16.5 south longitude 149.0 east, which is 370 kilometres east of
Port Douglas.
The low is expected to move slowly westwards during the next 24 hours and
may affect coastal and island communities between Cooktown and Cardwell by
Sunday afternoon.
Residents between Cooktown and Cardwell should take preliminary precautions
and consider what action they will need to take if the threat increases. If
you are unsure of what actions to take, information is available from your
local SES.
The next Advice will be issued at 5pm EST.
When a cyclone or low that could become a cyclone is close enough that
gales may develop on the coast or island communities within 24 hours, a
CYCLONE WARNING is issued. These have the position, distance in kilometers
and direction from one or more locations, central pressure, maximum wind
gusts in kilometers per hour, direction of movement and speed in kilometers
per hour, and other relevent information. These are usually issued at 6
hourly intervals, which may become 3 hourly or sometimes more frequently as
the cyclone approaches the coast, and then hourly when gales start to
impact and/or destructive winds are imminent.
Here is a CYCLONE WARNING:
IDW50Q00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters in the Cairns area are
requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane For 9am EST on Sunday the
27th of February 2000
A Cyclone Warning is current for coastal and island communities between
Cape Flattery and Cardwell.
At 9am, Tropical Cyclone STEVE, Category 1, was about 180 kilometres east
of Port Douglas and moving steadily west towards the coast.
The cyclone is expected to slowly intensify with gales developing between
Cape Flattery and Cardwell this afternoon.
Destructive winds may be experienced this evening as the centre nears the
coast.
Tides will be slightly higher than normal but should not exceed high water
mark.
Heavy to flood rains are expected to develop between Cairns and Townsville
overnight and continue through Monday.
A number of Flood Warnings are already current for this area.
Details of Tropical Cyclone STEVE, Category 1, at 9am: Central Pressure :
992 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 16.5 degrees south
longitude 147.1 degrees east
about 180 kilometres east of Port Douglas
and 150 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns
Recent Movement : west at about 15 kilometres per hour Maximum wind gusts :
110 kilometres per hour near the centre, and slowly
increasing
People between Cape Flattery and Cardwell should make preparations, and in
particular secure boats and outside property. If you are unsure what action
to take, information is available from your local SES.
The next Advice will be issued at 11am EST.
A FLASH WARNING is issued if a situation changes such that it is necessary
to issue a warning before the time of the next designated warning.
Here is a FLASH WARNING:
IDW50D21
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Northern Territory Region
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
FLASH TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN at 3:26 am CST [3:56 am EST]
Tuesday 29 February 2000
A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
Morngton Island in Queensland and Alyangula in the Northern Territory.
At 3 am CST [3.30 am EST] a low [ex-tropical cyclone Steve] was located in
the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria just southeast of Mornington Island
moving northwest at 20 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to reform
into a category 1 cyclone in the next few hours and continue moving to the
northwest parallel to the coast.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
Mornington Island and the Queensland/NT border early this morning, and
extend to the Northern Territory coast during the day.
Details of low [ex-cyclone-Steve] at 3 am CST 3.30 am EST:
. Centre located near....... 16.8 degrees South 139.7 degrees East .
Location accuracy......... within 20 kilometres . Recent
movement........... towards the west-northwest at 20 km/h . Wind gusts near
centre.... 100 kilometres per hour and intensifying . Central
pressure.......... 993 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island
communities between Morngton Island in Queensland and Alyangula in the
Northern Territory.
The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 5 am CST [5.30 am EST]
This advice is available on telephone 1300 659 211.
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Hope this helps.
Regards,
Carl.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
022
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 15:40:39 +1000
To: aussie-weather mailing list [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Olga may recurve towards coast
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
Here is the latest NW WA TC outlook, indicating TC Olga is likely to
recurve back towards the WA coast.
Regards,
Carl.
IDW51W00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:12pm WST on Saturday the 18th of March 2000
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST
Tropical cyclone Olga.
Location .............near 18.8S 109.5E
.............600km northwest of Exmouth
Central pressure: 980hpa
Recent movement: south west at 16 kilometres per hour.
Severity category: 2
Remarks: The tropical cyclone is expected to move southwest and then
southsouthwest and remain well offshore from the WA coast in the next 24 hours
before recurving to the southsoutheast late on Sunday or Monday. It poses no
threat to the WA coastline in the next 24 hours. However on Monday it may cause
strengthening winds in the southwest of the State. Rain associated with the
cyclone should spread across northern parts of the Southwest Land Division
during Sunday and Monday.
A tropical low in the Timor Sea is located near 10S 130E moving WSW at 7 knots
or 13 km/hr. It is expected to continue on a west southwest track during the
next few days.
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL of Timor Sea low
next 24 hours : Low
24-48 hours : Low
48-72 hours : Low
REMARKS - ** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability
of
**** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period.
**** LOW = 10-20% MODERATE = 30-40% HIGH = 50% or more
**---------------------------------------------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
023
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 16:05:32 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bereau Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Les.
I thought you may also like to see a warning for a severe cyclone crossing
the coast. In WA, the State Emergency Service issues community alerts which
are below the main warning. Only WA issues these.
Regards,
Carl.
IDW50W05
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should be sounded immediately before
broadcasting this warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN ADVICE NUMBER 25
Issued at 7:50 am WST on Wednesday, 15 December 1999
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 5 TROPICAL CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
between Pardoo and Mardie and inland to Pannawonica, Tom Price, Paraburdoo,
Newman and Jigalong.
The Cyclone warning for areas between Wallal and Pardoo and between Onslow and
Mardie has been cancelled.
At 8am WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN was located 110 kilometres west
southwest of Port Hedland and 80 kilometres east of Karratha and moving
southsoutheast at 13 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is crossing the coast
near
Whim Creek.
Very destructive and dangerous winds with gusts to 290 kilometres per hour are
expected near the cyclone centre this morning. Very heavy rain will cause
flooding in the Fortescue and adjacent coastal streams.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN at 8am WST.
Location of centre : Latitude 20.6 South Longitude 117.6 East.
Recent movement : southsoutheast at 13 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 915 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 290 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 5.
The State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: From Port Hedland to Mardie including Port Hedland, South Hedland,
Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Pt Sampson, Karratha and Dampier and the inland
communities of Fortescue, Millstream, Tom Price, Paraburdoo and Pannawonica.
YELLOW ALERT: Inland communities of Yandeyarra, Newman and Munjina.
BLUE ALERT: Marble Bar to Port Hedland and includes the communities of Marble
Bar, Nullagine, Pardoo and Warralong.
The next advice will be issued at 9.00 am WST. This advice is available by
dialling 1300 659 210. For inquiries about community alerts contact the State
Emergency Service.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Website: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone Information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
024
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bellenden Ker 1999 Rainfall
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 07:45:35 GMT
X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id CAA19591
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
On Fri, 17 Mar 2000 12:29:32 +1100 (EST), Blair Trewin
wrote:
>Incidentally, I will be doing an investigation over the next couple of
>months of all the major Australian temperature and rainfall extremes
>(highest max, lowest min, highest daily, monthly and annual rainfalls
>for all states). Hopefully I'll get the OK to put the findings on the
>external web - will keep you posted.
>
Hi Blair
Not lowest max and highest mins? That would be a pity. Whatever, it's
much needed. Good luck!
Laurier
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
025
From: "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bereau Tropical Cyclone Warnings
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2000 09:12:10 -0000
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times are always GMT
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
----- Original Message -----
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Saturday, March 18, 2000 6:05 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bereau Tropical Cyclone Warnings
> Hi Les.
>
> I thought you may also like to see a warning for a severe cyclone crossing
> the coast
This is brilliant - thank you!
Les
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| Document: 000318.htm
Updated: 03 June 2000 |
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