Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Tuesday, 4 April 2000

From Subject -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 001 "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au] Interesting New BoM Climage Pages 002 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] SUMMARY: February TC Summary - Part 1 003 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] New Northam Tornado Pictures 004 "Keith & Jason" [kevans at kisser.net.au] Coral Sea going off...TC Vaughan forms - Tessi could re form 005 David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au] Bathurst Hail 006 "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] Savage Planet 007 Miguel de Salas [mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au Morning storms? 008 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] Low spinning up in Victoria 009 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation. 010 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] NSW Severe Storms 011 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Storms in Sydney tomorrow ? 21S/HUDAH Update 012 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Monthly Sea Surface Temp Anomalies 013 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Monthly Sea Surface Temp Anomalies 014 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] SSTs 015 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Re: aus-wx Storms Grenfell, Caragabal. 016 Desley Absolon [mystyle at bigpond.com.au] Cyclone Tessie 017 Andrew Miskelly [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Cyclone Tessie 018 MSC [cadence at rubix.net.au] Lightning in NW Victoria 019 "Paul Yole" [raptor at megasat.net.au] Savage Planet 020 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Cyclone Tessie 021 David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au] Storms Central West 022 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Friday night ASWA meeting -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 001 From: "James Chambers" [jamestorm at ozemail.com.au] To: "aus-wx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Interesting New BoM Climage Pages Date: Tue, 4 Apr 2000 00:18:29 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all I was doing some surfing and found this: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20thc/index.shtml "Climate Extremes of the 20th Century". It has reports/summaries on a whole range of weather extremes such as a tornadic outbreak in Melbourne in 1918 (which included an F3 tornado) the heat and subsequent fires of 1939 and many others. There are a number of climate extremes which are yet to be reported on as well. It's very interesting reading. Btw...I hope I'm not the last one to know about these pages! Regards James Chambers The Brisbane & SE Qld Storm Site http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 002 X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au Date: Tue, 4 Apr 2000 02:04:07 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: SUMMARY: February TC Summary - Part 1 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY FEBRUARY, 2000 (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) NOTE: The February summary will be issued in two installments. This first installment covers the Southwest Indian Ocean. The second installment, covering the South Pacific Ocean and the Australian Region, should be ready within a few days. *********************************************************************** SPECIAL NOTE by AUTHOR Since August, 1999, most of the Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summaries have been initially issued in two or three installments in the interest of getting information out as quickly as possible. However, after the final installment has been disseminated, I put together all the sections into one complete summary and send this to the several persons who archive the summaries. For those persons who wish to archive their own copy of the summaries for future reference, I would advise downloading the completed version from one of the web- sites referenced at the end of each summary. I occasionally make some corrections or revisions after the initial installments have been mailed out, and in one case, I received some additional information which was incorportated into the final version. *********************************************************************** FEBRUARY HIGHLIGHTS --> Extremely long-lived and far-traveled Indian Ocean cyclone wreaks havoc in Madagascar and Mozambique --> Rapidly forming cyclone strikes Cairns, Queensland--regenerates in Gulf of Carpentaria *********************************************************************** ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for February: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Activity for February: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for February: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for February: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for February: 2 moderate tropical storms ** 2 severe tropical storms ++ 1 intense tropical cyclone (hurricane) ** - This based upon official classification from RSMC La Reunion. Based upon JTWC warnings Tropical Storm Gloria briefly reached minimal hurricane (cyclone) intensity. ++ - This total includes Tropical Storm Connie, which on 1 Feb was still technically at severe tropical storm intensity, but was rapidly weakening and by 2 Feb had weakened significantly and was becoming extratropical. South Indian Ocean Activity for February ---------------------------------------- The month of February was quite active in the South Indian Ocean west of longitude 90E. As indicated in the note above, former Tropical Cyclone Connie was still active as the month began, but rapidly disappeared from the scene. Short-lived Tropical Storm Damienne was named on 1 Feb, but weakened rapidly on 2 Feb and dissipated later that day. Felicia formed after mid-month out in the central South Indian Ocean and reached severe tropical storm intensity, but ultimately moved uneventfully to higher latitudes and weakened. At the end of the month Tropical Storm Gloria formed just east of the northern tip of Madagascar and made landfall there on 1 March. (JTWC briefly classified Gloria as a cyclone (i.e., hurricane) when an eye became visible along the coast as the storm made landfall.) Also, an area of disturbed weather was becoming better organized out in mid-ocean as February ended and became a tropical depression during the first few days of March. This system will be covered in the March summary. All this being said, the main tropical event of February was major Tropical Cyclone Eline (formerly known as Leon in the Australian Region). Leon had reached hurricane intensity on 6 Feb while well off the coast of Western Australia, but had weakened to near minimal cyclone (tropical storm) strength by the time it crossed 90E into the Southwest Indian basin and was renamed Eline by Mauritius. The storm almost dissipated, but managed to hang on and eventually traveled across the entire southern Indian Ocean to make landfall in both Madagascar and in Mozambique. Not only that, the cyclone underwent remarkably rapid intensification shortly before each of the two landfalls. The torrential rains of Tropical Cyclone Eline served to exacerbate the already-severe and massive flooding taking place in Mozambique. Tropical Storm Damienne (TC-10S / SIO #5) 31 January - 2 February ------------------------------------------ An area of convection was mentioned in a STWO by JTWC at 0000 UTC on 27 Jan southeast of Diego Garcia near 9S, 79E. A broad LLCC was present but the convection was disorganized. Over the next few days the disturbed area drifted westward, exhibiting persistent but still disorganized convection. Moderate vertical shear was present over the region and prevented the disturbance from intensifying rapidly. The system remained quasi-stationary for several days roughly 300 nm southeast of Diego Garcia. By 31 Jan animated infrared satellite imagery indicated that convection was beginning to organize around the LLCC somewhat, and JTWC upgraded the potential for development to Fair. MFR initiated bulletins on the system at 31/0600 UTC, designating it as disturbance #5. MSW were estimated at 25 kts with local winds to 30 kts possible in some areas. The LLCC was rather broad with the primary convection developing southwest of the center. The disturbance was upgraded directly to Tropical Storm Damienne at 0000 UTC on 1 Feb when it was located about 425 nm southeast of Diego Garcia. JTWC had not initiated warnings at this juncture but a Formation Alert was issued at 01/0130 UTC. SSM/I data indicated a developing convective band west of the LLCC beginning to wrap around the northeast quadrant of the system. 200-mb analysis showed an upper- level ridge extending over Damienne. The MFR warning at 0600 UTC increased the MSW to 40 kts and relocated Damienne's center about 115 nm east of the previous warning position. During the day Damienne moved steadily almost due south. JTWC issued the first warning at 1800 UTC when the storm was about 575 nm southeast of Diego Garcia. JTWC's initial MSW estimate (1-min avg) was 45 kts, which compares well with MFR's 10-min avg wind of 40 kts. The initial JTWC warning forecast Damienne to strengthen to cyclone (hurricane) intensity but this failed to materialize. A SSM/I pass at 02/0025 UTC showed the deep convection to be sheared about 130 nm southeast of the LLCC. The warning from La Reunion at 02/0600 UTC relocated the center about 100 nm northwest of the 0000 UTC position and downgraded Damienne to a tropical depression. The concurrent JTWC warning lowered the MSW to 40 kts and indicated that Damienne was tracking slowly southwestward at 7 kts. It was thought that a mid- level HIGH positioned to the southeast of the storm would build north- eastward over the Cocos Islands and steer Damienne into a more favorable environment for strengthening, but the storm continued to track southwestward and weaken. MFR issued the last bulletin at 02/1200 UTC and JTWC issued their last at 1800 UTC. A SSM/I pass showed minimal convection associated with the system and that was sheared well to the south of the LLCC. A scatterometer pass indicated winds of only 10 kts near the LLCC, and CIMSS charts indicated that strong vertical shear continued over the system. The final JTWC position was about 630 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Tropical Cyclone Leon-Eline (TC-11S / SIO #6) 3 - 23 February ---------------------------------------------- Tropical Cyclone Leon-Eline was certainly one of the longest-lived and farthest-traveled cyclones on record in the Southern Hemisphere. From its inception south of Java on 3 Feb til its final dissipation over Zimbabwe on 23 Feb, this great tropical cyclone's track spanned 80 degrees of longitude--almost one-quarter of the way around the globe! The storm was not only noteworthy for its longevity and track--it also made destructive landfalls in two countries after having, in both instances, underwent very rapid intensification. (This portion of the summary will cover the second part of the cyclone's lifespan in the Southwest Indian basin--the first portion of the storm's history as Leon east of 90E is detailed in the section covering the Australian Region--which will be issued within a few days.) Tropical Cyclone Leon reached an initial peak intensity of 70 kts while in the Australian Region on 6 Feb, but had weakened considerably by the time it crossed 90E into the Southwest Indian region. An upper- level ridge axis to the north was creating shear over the system, resulting in a fully-exposed LLCC with all the significant convection sheared to the south. Both Perth and JTWC were estimating the MSW at 40 kts as Leon exited the Perth AOR; however, JTWC did call for the storm to move back into a more favorable environment after 48-72 hours. Leon entered the Mauritius/La Reunion AOR around 1500 UTC on 8 Feb at a point approximately 500 nm west-southwest of the Cocos Islands, and, in accordance with long-standing practice, was renamed Eline by the Mauritius Meteorological Service. Over the next several days Tropical Storm Eline moved generally westward across the wide expanse of the South Indian Ocean. On the 9th some convection tried to re-establish itself around the tightly- wrapped LLCC, and MFR and JTWC increased the MSW estimates to 45 kts at 0600 UTC. However, JTWC soon decreased their MSW (1-min) to 40 kts and to 35 kts by 1200 UTC on 10 Feb, but MFR increased the 10-min avg intensity to 50 kts (severe tropical storm level) from 09/1800 UTC through 10/1800 UTC before downgrading Eline back to a moderate tropical storm (MSW < 48 kts). Vertical shear associated with an upper-level ridge axis to the south of Eline inhibited further intensification but the storm was able to hold its own. The "low point" in Eline's life seemed to come around 1200 UTC on 11 Feb when MFR's and JTWC's MSW estimates were 35 and 30 kts, respectively. The center of the weak tropical storm was located roughly 600 nm south of Diego Garcia about this time. By 12 Feb the vertical shear which had been inhibiting Eline's further development had decreased somewhat and convection began consolidating around the LLCC. Winds were up to 45 kts by late on the 12th and further increased to 50 kts on the 13th as Eline had become positioned under a 200-mb ridge axis. Ever since around 0000 UTC on 10 Feb the storm had been moving on a course ever so slightly north of due west, and at 0600 UTC on 13 Feb had reached a position about 220 nm north of Rodrigues Island. Soon after this, however, Eline turned to a west-southwesterly course and began to steadily intensify. JTWC upped the MSW (1-min) to 70 kts at 14/0000 UTC, and MFR had increased their 10-min avg estimate to 60 kts by 0600 UTC when the storm was centered only about 50 nm south-southeast of St. Brandon. A TRMM pass at 13/2101 UTC revealed an eye 12 nm in diameter with good outflow in all quadrants. Later on the 14th the intensification process reached a plateau as a mid- to upper-level trough southwest of the system weakened the mid-level subtropical ridge and enhanced west- northwesterly flow over Eline, causing the convection to be sheared somewhat to the south. MFR brought down the intensity to 55 kts at 1800 UTC and JTWC decreased their MSW estimate to 65 kts at 15/1200 UTC. Severe Tropical Storm Eline continued on a west-southwesterly course during this time, passing about 125 nm north of Mauritius around 1800 UTC on 14 Feb and about 140 nm north of Reunion around 1200 UTC on the 15th. On Mauritius a peak gust of 71 kts was recorded at Ft. William with attendant heavy rainfall. As the 15th progressed deep convection began to recover abit and then held steady. MFR estimated the MSW (10-min) at 60 kts once more at 1800 UTC, and then upgraded Eline to a tropical cyclone (hurricane) with 65-kt winds at 0600 UTC on 16 Feb. JTWC maintained the storm at 65 kts through the 16th as animated satellite imagery depicted a partially-exposed LLCC with persistent deep convection. Water vapor imagery showed some dry air entraining into the southeast quadrant, and CIMSS charts indicated that Eline was still under some weak vertical shearing. The cyclone turned to more of a westerly course on the 16th and began to approach the east coast of Madagascar on the 17th. By 1200 UTC the center was within 30 nm of the coast, and landfall occurred near Mahanoro around 1500 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Eline underwent a very significant intensification in the 24 hours prior to landfall. MFR seemed to pick up on this trend a little sooner than did JTWC with the 10-min avg winds up to 70 kts at 0000 UTC and to 75 kts at 0600 UTC while JTWC maintained a 65-kt MSW (1-min avg). However, at 1200 UTC both centers reported 80 kts. The 1200 UTC warning from JTWC contained the statement that a peak intensity of 85 kts had likely occurred at 0600 UTC, but the subsequent warning at 18/0000 UTC indicated that a peak intensity of 90 kts (1-min avg) had occurred near the time of landfall (around 1500 UTC). Philippe Caroff, the Chief Forecaster at RSMC La Reunion, expressed the opinion that Eline possibly reached a maximum 10-min avg windspeed of 95 kts, or MSW (1-min) of 110 kts, about the time of landfall. Eline predictably weakened significantly while crossing over the large, mountainous island of Madagascar, its winds dropping to around 30 kts. Even though over land, the system retained good outflow aloft in all quadrants. The depression moved out over the Mozambique Channel on the 19th and began to slowly regain strength with the primary band of convection to the north of the LLCC. By late on 19 Feb Eline had regained tropical storm intensity with the MSW up to 45 kts. On 20 Feb the storm continued to strengthen and reached the severe tropical storm category with winds increasing to 55 kts. Eline was located just south of an upper-level ridge axis and still maintained good outflow aloft. A 19/2007 UTC TRMM pass showed well- defined low-level cloud lines north of the LLCC with deep convection confined to the southern and eastern quadrants. The storm was experiencing some shear, but by 1200 UTC deep, persistent convection was once again located over the LLCC. Eline had initially trekked southwestward after exiting Madagascar, but around 20/1200 UTC turned to a westward track once more. The storm was centered roughly 300 nm east-southeast of Beira, Mozambique, at this point. MFR upped the MSW to 60 kts at 21/0000 UTC (JTWC's 1-min MSW was 65 kts) and to 65 kts (cyclone intensity) by 1200 UTC. JTWC's MSW estimate then was 70 kts, so this was good agreement between the two. CIMSS charts showed an improved environment for further strengthening with an upper-level trough to the southeast enhancing outflow. On 21 Feb Tropical Cyclone Eline turned to the northwest and its forward motion slowed considerably (to 3 kts) as it approached the Mozambique coast. At 22/0000 UTC the cyclone displayed a 32-nm wide eye. Microwave imagery depicted concentric eyewall features with strong rainbands. Winds had reached 90 kts (10-min avg) by this time and continued to increase as the storm neared landfall. Eline was being steered on the northwesterly course by a subtropical ridge located to the south-southwest of the cyclone. Intense Tropical Cyclone Eline began to make landfall about 40 nm south of Beira around 0300 UTC. MFR estimated the maximum 10-min avg winds to be around 100 kts at landfall. JTWC's 22/1200 UTC warning indicated that the MSW (1-min avg) near the time of landfall was 115 kts, so this agrees well with RSMC La Reunion's assessment. So once more this remarkable cyclone had intensified rapidly from minimal cyclone strength into an intense cyclone in about 18 hours when on the verge of making landfall. By 1200 UTC Eline was well inland about 50 nm southwest of Beira. MFR had quickly downgraded the winds to 45 kts, but JTWC reported the MSW (1-min avg) at 100 kts. This was based strictly on satellite intensity estimates, however, and it seems quite unlikely that actual sustained winds to 100 kts would still be occurring almost ten hours after the center had made landfall--at least based on the behavior of landfalling Atlantic hurricanes in the United States. By 0000 UTC on 23 Feb the weakening Eline had moved west-northwestward into eastern Zimbabwe and both JTWC and MFR issued their final warnings. A well-defined cloud system could be seen in satellite imagery for several days drifting slowly across the southern African continent. Tropical Cyclone Eline was quite destructive to Madagascar. One report received by the author indicated that 10,000 persons were homeless and over 22,000 completely isolated due to flooding in the wake of Eline and Tropical Storm Gloria which struck the northern portion of the island in early March. The towns of Mahanoro and Vatomandry were reportedly about 80% destroyed. A report from OCHA (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) dated 23 Feb indicated that Eline caused six deaths on Madagascar--two deaths were reported in Antananarivo, the capital, where roofs were blown away and trees uprooted. However, these figures were rather early, and in the author's opinion, the death toll was likely much higher. There were some media reports which indicated that much of the populace along the eastern coast of Madagascar had little advance warning of the cyclone's approach. In Mozambique the specific effects of Tropical Cyclone Eline are very difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish from the disastrous flooding already taking place when the storm made landfall. Heavier than normal rainfall during the summer had led to widespread and severe flooding beginning in late January, and had already reached disastrous proportions by the time Eline made landfall in late February. About all that can be said with certainty is that the cyclone exacerbated the situation to some degree. Prior to Eline's arrival in Mozambique the flooding had already displaced 300,000 people while affecting as many as 800,000. Roads, bridges, and other infrastructure items were severely damaged. As of the end of March one report stated that the flooding was reponsible for over 1000 fatalities with over 4 million persons displaced and/or significantly affected. The death toll could likely be much higher as large numbers of bodies were swept away by the flooding waters. Two small fishing boats were sunk off Beira with the presumed loss of the crews. A special thanks to Matthew Saxby, Jean Marc de Maroussem, Patrick Hoareau, and Kelly Sponberg for sending me information on the effects of Eline and the flooding disaster in Africa. For those who are interested, much more information can be found at the following website: Tropical Storm Felicia (TC-12S / SIO #7) 19 - 24 February ----------------------------------------- An area of convection had developed by 17 Feb near 13S, 81E in the monsoon trough southeast of Diego Garcia. A scatterometer pass indicated a broad LLCC with associated convection over a wide area. CIMSS shear charts indicated weak vertical shear over the area with fair outflow. By 19 Feb the disturbed area was approximately 400 nm southeast of Diego Garcia with still poorly-organized but persistent convection. MFR began issuing bulletins on disturbance #7 with winds near the center of 25 kts but with some localized winds to 30 kts possible well away from the center under the heavier convection. The system was classified as a tropical storm by MFR at 20/0000 UTC when it was located about 500 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, and had been named Felicia by Mauritius by 0600 UTC. The 10-min avg MSW were estimated at 40 kts. JTWC had not initiated warnings at this time but did issue a Formation Alert at 0530 UTC. Felicia was moving on a generally west-southwesterly course at this time which later became more southwesterly. The storm was temporarily downgraded to a tropical depression by MFR at 1800 UTC but was reclassified as a tropical storm twelve hours later. JTWC initiated warnings at 21/0000 UTC, placing the center about 675 nm east-northeast of Rodrigues Island with 35-kt winds (1-min avg). An ERS-2 scatterometer pass at 20/1815 UTC indicated an elongated LLCC with winds of 25-30 kts to the west with strong convection organizing on that side. Felicia was undergoing some northeasterly shear but continued to slowly intensify as a band of convection began to develop south of the center. At 22/0000 UTC JTWC estimated the MSW (1-min) to be 45 kts based on satellite intensity estimates of 30 and 55 kts. Microwave imagery depicted strong convection organizing on the west side of the LLCC in a developing banding feature. The storm had good outflow to the south and fair in other quadrants. JTWC maintained the 45-kt MSW at 1200 UTC but MFR increased their estimate to 55 kts at 0600 UTC and to 60 kts by 1800 UTC. Felicia was located about 385 nm due east of Rodrigues Island at 22/0000 UTC and thereafter began to move on more of a south- southwesterly track. JTWC assigned its peak MSW estimate of 50 kts at 23/0000 UTC. A mid-level trough to the west was building equatorward and was expected to turn Felicia to the south and then southeast, but the severe tropical storm continued to move south-southwestward throughout its life. Animated infrared and visible satellite imagery showed convection being sheared to the southeast away from the LLCC--the shear being caused by the approaching trough. At 1200 UTC JTWC decreased the MSW (1-min) to 40 kts (based on CI numbers of 35 and 55 kts), but MFR maintained Felicia at 60 kts through 1200 UTC, then began to decrease the intensity estimates rather quickly. At 0000 UTC on 24 Feb the weakening storm was still tracking south- southwestward at 10 kts. JTWC assigned a MSW estimate of 30 kts and wrote their last warning; MFR had decreased Felicia's intensity to 40 kts by this time. The storm displayed an exposed LLCC with rapidly decaying convection being sheared southeastward; also, dry air was starting to be entrained into the system. MFR wrote their final warning at 0600 UTC, estimating the MSW (10-min) at 30 kts and judging the system to be transitioning into an extratropical LOW. The final MFR position placed the dissipating Felicia about 665 nm south- southeast of Rodrigues Island. Tropical Storm Gloria (TC-15S / SIO #8) 28 February - 5 March ---------------------------------------- At 27/0930 UTC JTWC issued a Formation Alert on a hitherto previously unmentioned area of convection east of northern Madagascar, with a LLCC located near 13.9S, 61.8E. Microwave imagery at 27/0155 UTC suggested that at least a well-defined mid-level circulation had formed within the convective area. The cloud pattern was becoming more circular and upper-level outflow was improving since vertical shear across the region had decreased, and the Formation Alert noted that rapid intensification might be possible due to the well-developed mid-level circulation and the recent increase in deep convection near the center. MFR initiated bulletins on the system as disturbance #8 at 0600 UTC on the 28th when the system was located roughly 600 nm east-southeast of the northern tip of Madagascar. Winds were estimated at 25 kts with some 30-kt winds possible locally in areas to the south of the center. JTWC began issuing warnings at 1200 UTC with the MSW estimated at 30 kts (1-min avg). Convective organization had continued to improve with good outflow to the west but restricted to the east. The system was expected to intensify slowly due to moderate easterly shear. At 29/0000 UTC JTWC upped the MSW to 35 kts and MFR upgraded the LOW to a tropical depression. The depression was moving westward under the steering influence of a large subtropical ridge to the south. There was some moderate vertical shear present and the majority of the deep convection was located west of the LLCC. JTWC increased the MSW to 40 kts at 1200 UTC based on a convective bursting near the center. Outflow was excellent to the west but poor to the east due to the shear. At 29/1800 UTC the center of the depression was located approximately 300 nm east of the northern tip of Madagascar and was moving somewhat north of due west. The system began to show definite signs of strengthening on 1 Mar. JTWC had increased their MSW estimate to 45 kts at 0000 UTC and to 55 kts at 1200 UTC. The depression had become Tropical Storm Gloria at 0600 UTC, and by 1200 UTC was moving southwestward at 9 kts. Gloria's center made landfall in Madagascar around 1800 UTC near Antsirabe. JTWC's MSW estimate (1-min avg) at landfall was 65 kts. This was based on infrared imagery and a SSM/I pass at 1725 UTC which showed a 15-nm wide closed eye along the coast. MFR's intensity estimate at landfall was somewhat lower at 45 kts (10-min avg). By 02/0000 UTC Gloria was inland over Madagascar and weakening. JTWC reported the MSW to be 45 kts based on satellite intensity estimates of 35 and 45 kts (the MFR warning at this time was not available to the author). At 0600 UTC Gloria had weakened into a depression and MFR issued its final warning. JTWC continued to follow the weak system for the next three days as it drifted south- westward across the northern and central portions of Madagascar. Gloria's remnants maintained a LLCC fairly well for over 24 hours after landfall, but gradually became more diffuse and difficult to locate. Apparently JTWC continued to issue warnings since re-intensification over the Mozambique Channel was consistently forecast. The weak center appeared to have emerged into the Channel by around 0600 UTC on 4 Mar. There was some isolated convection with low-level cumulus and stratocumulus clouds wrapping into the LLCC. By 1200 UTC some new convection was developing south and east of the center. At 0000 UTC on 5 Mar JTWC still forecast some very modest intensification, but at 0600 UTC the final warning was written. The weak and fully-exposed LLCC was located about 70 nm west of Morondava with weak, isolated convection about 100 nm east of the center over land. Synoptic data showed surface pressures near 1010 mb and winds averaging less than 10 kts around the LLCC. 200-mb analysis and CIMSS shear charts also revealed an environment unfavorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Gloria brought heavy rainfall to northern Madagascar. An island (Nosy Be) near northwestern Madagascar reported 165 mm of rain in the 24 hours ending at 0600 UTC on 2 Mar (the monthly average is 295 mm). Mananjary recorded 427 mm in a 48-hour period ending at 05/0600 UTC. (Mananjary's average monthly rainfall is 478 mm.) The highest death toll available to the author was 137. Andapa was the most severely affected city with 40 dead and 33 unaccounted for. Over 100 homes were destroyed there with widespread structural damage occurring. Also, an outbreak of cholera added to the misery of the population. The road linking this region to the capital was rendered unpassable, and this was expected to have a substantial negative impact on the region's economy. (A special thanks to Patrick Hoareau, Jean Marc de Maroussem, and Matthew Saxby for passing along information on the effects of Gloria in Madagascar.) *********************************************************************** AUSTRALIAN REGION (AUG) - From Longitude 90E Eastward to Longitude 160E Activity for February: 1 tropical LOW 2 tropical cyclones ** 1 severe tropical cyclone (hurricane) ** - One of these systems, Tropical Cyclone Marcia, was never classed as a tropical cyclone by JTWC. NOTE!!! The Australian Region will be covered in the second installment of this summary and should be issued within a few days. *********************************************************************** SOUTHWEST PACIFIC (SWP) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for February: 1 tropical depression 1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity NOTE!!! The Southwest Pacific basin will be covered in the second installment of this summary and should be issued within a few days. *********************************************************************** EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I included in the July, 1998 summary. I will include this glossary from time to time, primarily in "lean" months without a lot of tropical cyclone activity to cover. But if anyone missed receiving it and wishes to obtain a copy, send me an e-mail privately and I'll forward them a copy. *********************************************************************** AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved in the following manner: (a) FTP to: hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206] (b) Login as: anonymous (c) For a password use your e-mail address (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data) (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii) (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name ) (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using February as an example: feb00.tracks) (g) To exit FTP, type: quit Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries, they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD. The summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature: feb00.sum, for example. Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Tom Berg, Michael Pitt, and Rich Henning): Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE I have discovered that JTWC now has available on its new website the complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 1998 (1997-1998 season for the Southern Hemisphere). Also, ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The URL is: Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 1999 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 1999 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones are now available. The URL is: Prepared by: Gary Padgett E-mail: garyp at alaweb.com Phone: 334-222-5327 (nights & weekends) / 850-882-2594 (weekdays) *********************************************************************** *********************************************************************** +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 003 Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 12:53:51 -0400 From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] Subject: aus-wx: New Northam Tornado Pictures To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id MAA14242 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Ira Fehlberg wrote: > Hi Everyone. As part of the new web site we are building I've re-scanned > the awesome Northam tornado pics. I also added some new ones that I didnt > scan before of the funnel and wall cloud. If you want to have a peek its up > as pic of the month at my page, click on it to see the rest of the pics. > > http://www.upnaway.com/~jra/weather.html Great stuff!!!! Thanks for these Les ************************ Leslie R. Lemon Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237 E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 004 From: "Keith & Jason" [kevans at kisser.net.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Coral Sea going off...TC Vaughan forms - Tessi could re form :) Date: Tue, 4 Apr 2000 02:53:28 +0800 Organization: Karratha AWS X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hey all

The second Tropical Low that has been in the Coral Sea for the past few days and tracked NW has formed into TC Vaughan the second TC in the Coral sea in as many days. Current IR Image http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/satimages/gmsd.jpg

Also there is a possibility EX TC Tessi could do a TC Steve and track NW into the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and re-form.....

SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1830UTC 3 APRIL 2000

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

= SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Vaughan with a central pressure of 995 hectopascals centred at
031800 UTC near 14.0 south 156.0 east and expected to move west at 9 knots.
Position fair.

= AREA AFFECTED
Within 100nm of the centre.

= FORECAST
Maximum winds averaging 40 knots, increasing to 47 knots in the next 24 hours.

Seas rising to very rough on heavy swells.

Forecast position at 040600 UTC near 14.0S 154.2E 992 hPa

Forecast position at 041800 UTC near 13.9S 152.4E 987 hPa

= REMARKS
Nil

= WEATHER BRISBANE +

=============================

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 1:31 pm CST Monday 3 APRIL 2000

TROPICAL LOW [ex-Tropical Cyclone 'Tessi'] over north Queeensland.
   Location........near 18.7S 145.7E
           ........i.e.about 70 nautical miles [130 km] NW of
                   Townsville.
   Central pressure: 998 hPa
   Recent movement : towards the W at 7 knots [13 km/h].

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
          Next 24h : low
           24-48 h : low
           48-72 h : low

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development within each 24 hour period...
LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20% - 40% HIGH = 50% or more.

REMARKS: The low will continue moving westward to be located near the southern
Gulf of Carpentaria coast during tomorrow. There is a slight chance of
re-development on Wednesday if the low takes a more northwestward track to reach
open waters in the Gulf.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

Regards

Jason

Karratha WA
http://www.kisser.net.au/kevans/weather/

Hoping QLD donates a couple more TC's to WA :P

005 Date: Tue, 04 Apr 2000 08:58:10 +1000 From: David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Bathurst Hail Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Huge storms in Bathurst at this time, Hail also.. Lightning strike about 200 metres from my house 2 mins ago.. Blackouts all over town.. If anyone needs any info pls email me at davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au. Thanks +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 006 From: "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] To: "aus-wx" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] "Jane ONeill" Subject: aus-wx: Savage Planet Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 22:34:09 +0100 Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times are always GMT X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Everybody -

Having just seen Savage Planet I'll now mpeg it and get it off to my state rep.

In summary: the first 15 minutes were devoted to Australian severe weather - (i) the Sydney supercell hailstorm of last April, showing continuous lightning (HUGE CC - CG lighting up the Sydney Harbour Bridge) and tennisball hail, (ii) an event in Melbourne which fried 12 golfers (who kept playing even though they saw the TS coming tsk tsk), apparently a CG hit a powerpole and the current spread across the wet ground - zapping them in the process (no fatalities).

The second half showed footage of a flying glider in the UK getting blasted apart by a CG and the rest was devoted to Florida.

all in all not too bad but BoM rainfall radar was being passed off as lightning data along with the real Kattron mccoy and there was no ASWA representation. Surprisingly no Stillings in the Florida stuff - it was all NASA.

Another niggle was the immediate thunder even though the lightning was quite obviously some distance away - AAAAARGHH!

The person asking about TV programmes about Australian sever weather - this surely qualifies. Called "Savage Planet".

Les (UK)

007 X-Sender: mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32) Date: Tue, 04 Apr 2000 09:31:36 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Miguel de Salas [mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au] Subject: aus-wx: Morning storms? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The 22:30 UTC satpic (http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/satimages/gmsd.jpg) shows some nice plume shaped clouds over NSW... I don't have access to radar, but they look like thunderstorms. Are they? Miguel de Salas School of Plant Science, University of Tasmania, PO Box 252-55, Sandy Bay, Hobart Tasmania, Australia, 7001. mailto://mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au My Moths Page: http://members.xoom.com/migueldes/moths/moths.html +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 008 From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Low spinning up in Victoria Date: Tue, 4 Apr 2000 09:27:01 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, Good generalised rains in eastern SA & western Vic with some totals getting into the mid to high 20mm range. A low pressure system has spun up and was analysed to 300hPa at 10pm last night. A 'seriously large' area of cloud still to the west of Victoria. Comment by BoM person this morning on Melbourne radio in response to the heavy rain in the SW of Victoria after an unexpected low spun up:- "The end prediction for 24 hours is easy. It's how we get there first that's difficult." .......................... MSC - Victoria "always watching and listening" +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 009 X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au Date: Tue, 4 Apr 2000 13:34:24 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. Have started a map animation for TC Vaughan at http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/VaughanAnim.htm. According to the BoM, it is Cat 2, 985 hPa, wind gusts to 130 km/hr and intensifying, and heading towards Nth Queensland. BoM bulletin #1 and JTWC warning #3 pasted below. Regards, Carl. >IDW57Q00 >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY >Queensland Region >Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre > >TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN >For 10 am EST on Tuesday the 4th of April 2000 > >BULLETIN No 1 > >At 10 am EST Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 2, was centred near 13.6 South >155.2 East which is about 1100 kilometres east-northeast of Cooktown. > >The cyclone is well out in the Coral Sea but is moving in a general westerly >direction at 15 to 20 kilometres per hour. > >As gales are not expected on the far North Queensland coast within the next 48 >hours, a Cyclone Watch is not required at this time. > >Maximum wind gusts near the centre of VAUGHAN are estimated at 130 kilometres >per hour. These winds are likely to increase during the next 24 hours as the >cyclone slowly intensifies. > >A Storm Warning is being issued for ocean waters in the vicinity of the >cyclone. > >This Bulletin can be heard by dialling 1300 659 212 for the cost of a local >call. A Tropical Cyclone Track Map is available on Weather-By-Fax 1902 935 278 >and also on the Bureau's web site at http://www.bom.gov.au. > >The next Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletin will be issued at 5pm EST. >336 >WTPS32 PGTW 040300 >IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY >1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNING NR 003 > 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE > --- > WARNING POSITION: > 040000Z4 --- NEAR 13.6S0 155.0E1 > MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS > POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM > POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE > PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT > RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM > RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE > 070 NM ELSEWHERE > REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 155.0E1 > --- > FORECASTS: > 12 HRS, VALID AT: > 041200Z7 --- 13.4S8 152.8E6 > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT > RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM > RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE > 080 NM ELSEWHERE > VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS > --- > 24 HRS, VALID AT: > 050000Z5 --- 13.5S9 150.6E2 > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT > RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM > RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE > 090 NM ELSEWHERE > VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS > --- > 36 HRS, VALID AT: > 051200Z8 --- 14.1S6 148.4E7 > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT > RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE > 030 NM ELSEWHERE > RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE > 100 NM ELSEWHERE > VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS > --- > EXTENDED OUTLOOK: > 48 HRS, VALID AT: > 060000Z6 --- 14.7S2 146.2E3 > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT > RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE > 035 NM ELSEWHERE > RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE > OVER WATER > 105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER > --- >REMARKS: >040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 154.5E5. >TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (VAUGHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM >EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 >KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON >032330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING >INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 >AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC >23P (VAUGHAN) HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP >CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER >(LLCC). TC 23P (VAUGHAN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD >DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID- >LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO >TAKE A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STEERING RIDGE MOVES TO >THE EAST. TC 23P (VAUGHAN) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT SLIGHTLY LESS >THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM >SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT >041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6) AND 050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4). REFER TO >TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- >HOURLY UPDATES.// ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. Email: carls at ace-net.com.au Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 010 X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified) X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32) Date: Tue, 04 Apr 2000 11:40:35 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: NSW Severe Storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 2-3cm Hail reported at parkes With heavy rain. Bathurst/Oberon blacked out. Parts of Parkes blacked out RADAR is down... I think the Bureau have not updated there password :( , as the ASWA site HAS got the new password in it ready to go. Lots of rain and storms for central/coastal NSW over the next 24 hours! Matt Smith +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 011 Date: Mon, 03 Apr 2000 03:00:09 -0700 From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms in Sydney tomorrow ? 21S/HUDAH Update Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Gorgeous sunset up here in the Mountains Matt, didn't have the camera with me, sadly. Lindsay P. Matt Smith wrote: > > Storms in Sydney tomorrow are a likely bet. > > NE wind, > temps around 26-28 > 500 temps of around -12 > 70knot odd Jet at 250 > -3 LI > > The cloud from the trough cleared late afternoon and there are clear skies > with small fog areas at the moment. A spectacular sunset was seen in sydney > today, anyone get photos ? (i was at work) > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 012 Date: Mon, 03 Apr 2000 03:13:21 -0700 From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Monthly Sea Surface Temp Anomalies Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com G'day Steve, It's: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/anomsst.shtml Hope that's right. Cheers, Lindsay P. steve baynham wrote: > > lindsay, > can you paste a link for that please so i can see what your looking at? > steve > > At 12:42 AM 4/2/00 -0800, you wrote: > >Just been looking at the SST Anomalies for March. > > > >Does anyone have any thoughts on where that mass of warm water on the > >east coast of South Africa might go? > > > >It's roughly at 40 degrees south just now and looks to be breaking up a > >little. If it heads south east, the lower than average SST'S down there > >might, thankfully, diminish its impact on our Winter lows. Then again, > >if it heads more to the east towards WA, it might lessen our chances of > >decent cold cored lows developing this winter. Is that right? > > > >I'm still learning here, (Thanks Michael Scollay and others for your > >help), so hopefully I am halfway (or maybe a quarter?) to understanding > >the vagaries of prospective winter conditions. There seems to be so many > >variables needed to set up a good snow season... > > > > > >Lindsay Pearce > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 013 Date: Mon, 03 Apr 2000 02:54:49 -0700 From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Monthly Sea Surface Temp Anomalies Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Yeah, thanks Michael, yes I have your last post and have read it a number of times with interest and actually understand it :-) I'm just continually interested in the snow potential this season and was canvassing other people's observations on this warm spot near S.Africa, thinking you had gone. Cheers, Lindsay P. Michael Scollay wrote: > > >===== Original Message From Lindsay Pearce... > >Just been looking at the SST Anomalies for March. > > > >Does anyone have any thoughts on where that mass > >of warm water on the east coast of South Africa > >might go? It's roughly at 40 degrees south just > >now and looks to be breaking up a little. If it > >heads south east, the lower than average SST'S > >down there might, thankfully, diminish its impact > >on our Winter lows. Then again,if it heads more > >to the east towards WA, it might lessen our > >chances of decent cold cored lows developing > >this winter. Is that right? > > By far the worst snow years occur when both the > Indian and Pacific ocean areas have warm anomalies. > Next worst are Indian and Southern warm anomalies. > Thus it follows that if all that warm water were > to lob itself to the west and south of Australia > which is where our cold fronts and cold-cored lows > come from, then it'll stuff up the snow quite a lot. > Remember my last post where I pointed that out? We > snow-buffs had better hope that conditions stay > neutral to slightly colder than neutral. > > Anybody wondering why I havn't unsubscribed yet? > It's because I have a few days to tie up my > personal matters that my Manager has kindly let > me come into "work" to finish. > > MichaelS > mailto:mscollay at telstra.com > > --------------------------------- > Powered by http://www.telstra.com > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 014 Date: Mon, 03 Apr 2000 03:07:06 -0700 From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: SSTs Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thanks David, That helped a lot. Cheers, Lindsay Pearce Dr David Jones wrote: > > >(Lindsay Pearce) > >Just been looking at the SST Anomalies for March. > > > >Does anyone have any thoughts on where that mass of warm water on the > >east coast of South Africa might go? > > > >It's roughly at 40 degrees south just now and looks to be breaking up a > >little. If it heads south east, the lower than average SST'S down there > >might, thankfully, diminish its impact on our Winter lows. Then again, > >if it heads more to the east towards WA, it might lessen our chances of > >decent cold cored lows developing this winter. Is that right? > > Lindsay, I suspect to a substantial degree, the current SST (sea surface > temperature) anomalies across the Southern Hemisphere mid/high latitudes > reflect the fact that the subtropical ridge (read belt of mid > latitude/subtropical high pressure) has in recent months been tending to lie > south of its normal position (for example in our region near Tasmania), with > the circumpolar trough (read belt of lows near the Antarctic Coast) being > strong than normal, and also lying south of normal. As a result, the region > near 35 to 45 south has been experiencing lighter winds and more stable > conditions - less cloud, rainfall, more sunshine, while further south, the > increase pressure gradient has resulted in stronger winds, and (probably) > increased cloudiness. Anyway, in the 35 to 45S range, one would expect the > SSTs to be warmer than normal because less wind implies less mixing of warm > surface water down, more sunshine implies more sun to heat water etc > (obvious really). Further south the increased wind would mean increased > mixing of warm water down, cool water up, meaning that SSTs would tend to be > cooler than normal. In a nutshell this seems to explain why most of the SSTs > near (say) 35S are anomalously warm, while those near 55S are anomalously > cool. The reason why SSTs are so very warm near Africa, appears in part to a > particularly strong anticyclone anomaly which has been occurring to the > southeast of Africa for some months - this may well be tied to the flooding > in east Africa - the observant will have noticed that when we have a very > active monsoon over Australia we tend to have strong highs in the Tasman > Sea, and a similar pattern would be expected near Africa (with stronger than > normal highs to the southeast). > > Anyway, that seems to explain why it is so warm near 35S pretty much > everywhere in the Southern Hemisphere. As for where the very warm water near > Africa will go, I guess the best guess is towards the east (ie move towards > Australia). This is based on the fact that it seems to have been doing this > for sometime - see http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/mrlr/nrs/pastanal.htm , and > the general drift of currents in this region is west to east. As for how far > east it will get, and in what form, I guess it is anybodies guess, though I > would be suprised if it makes it to Australia. > > Regards, > > David. > > Climate Analysis Section > National Climate Centre > Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 > GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 > Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425 > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 015 X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32) Date: Tue, 04 Apr 2000 10:57:00 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: aus-wx Storms Grenfell, Caragabal. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com No reports from the BoM that it was severe.. Any hail ? any other details ? (trees uprooted ,houses unroofed etc) ? Matt (hope u get this considering u dont have power !!) > >Hi there.. > >Several reports of blackouts in Grenfell, Severe Storm as passed through >these areas, very heavy rain. > >Dave > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 016 Date: Tue, 04 Apr 2000 10:58:17 +1000 From: Desley Absolon [mystyle at bigpond.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cyclone Tessie Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All, Just out of interest....can anyone explain why the media release for Tessie was not to be preceded by the Cyclone Warning Siren?? It was expected to cross the coast in less than 24 hours, and was still intensifying at this stage?? It crossed the coast at Cat II.... How come no siren?? Cyclone Vaughn is on the war path and we are checking the cyclone kit once again!! Anyone got any theories on where he will go?? Raining here at the moment.....and unbelievable humid over the last few days. Desley in Cairns David Carroll wrote: > Hi all,, > > Radar showing alot of intensity now.. here is the lastest Bom report.. > > IDW50Q00 > BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > Queensland Region > Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre > > Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with > this > warning. > > TOP PRIORITY > TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9 > Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane > For 8 pm EST on Sunday the 2nd of April 2000 > > A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between > Innisfail and Bowen. > > Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, is moving closer to the north > Queensland > coast. > > At 8 pm EST, TESSI was located about 150 kilometres east of Lucinda and > 130 > kilometres NE of Townsville moving west-southwest at about 18 kilometres > per > hour. > > Gales are expected to develop overnight about the coast and islands > between > Innisfail and Bowen. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between > Townsville and Lucinda during the early hours of Monday morning. > > If the cyclone centre reaches the coast as late as the morning high > tide, a > storm surge is expected with tides rising up to 1 metre above the normal > level > with sea flooding in low lying coastal areas. > > Heavy to flood rains are likely overnight about the coast and nearby > ranges > between Innisfail and Mackay. > > Details of Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, for 8pm EST > Central Pressure : 988 Hectopascals > Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of > latitude 18.6 degrees south > longitude 147.8 degrees east > about 150 kilometres east of Lucinda > and 130 kilometres northeast of Townsville > Recent Movement : west-southwest at about 18 kilometres per hour > Maximum wind gusts : 120 kilometres per hour > > People between Innisfail and Bowen should continue preparations, and in > particular secure boats and outside property. Further information on > cyclone > precautions is available from your local State Emergency Service. > > The next advice will be issued at 11pm EST. > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 017 Date: Tue, 04 Apr 2000 17:47:48 +1000 From: Andrew Miskelly [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cyclone Tessie Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Desley, I think you will find that the next warning would have indicated that the signal SHOULD be used. The warning would not be used before Gales (let alone anything stronger) had developed on the coast - as was the situation in this warning. But I'm not going to comment on whether this is cutting it too fine or not. Andrew. -- Andrew Miskelly Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW amiskelly at ozemail.com.au Desley Absolon wrote: > > Hi All, > Just out of interest....can anyone explain why the media release for Tessie > was not to be preceded by the Cyclone Warning Siren?? It was expected to > cross the coast in less than 24 hours, and was still intensifying at this > stage?? It crossed the coast at Cat II.... How come no siren?? > > Cyclone Vaughn is on the war path and we are checking the cyclone kit once > again!! Anyone got any theories on where he will go?? > > Raining here at the moment.....and unbelievable humid over the last few days. > > Desley in Cairns > > David Carroll wrote: > > > Hi all,, > > > > Radar showing alot of intensity now.. here is the lastest Bom report.. > > > > IDW50Q00 > > BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > > Queensland Region > > Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre > > > > Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with > > this > > warning. > > > > TOP PRIORITY > > TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9 > > Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane > > For 8 pm EST on Sunday the 2nd of April 2000 > > > > A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between > > Innisfail and Bowen. > > > > Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, is moving closer to the north > > Queensland > > coast. > > > > At 8 pm EST, TESSI was located about 150 kilometres east of Lucinda and > > 130 > > kilometres NE of Townsville moving west-southwest at about 18 kilometres > > per > > hour. > > > > Gales are expected to develop overnight about the coast and islands > > between > > Innisfail and Bowen. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between > > Townsville and Lucinda during the early hours of Monday morning. > > > > If the cyclone centre reaches the coast as late as the morning high > > tide, a > > storm surge is expected with tides rising up to 1 metre above the normal > > level > > with sea flooding in low lying coastal areas. > > > > Heavy to flood rains are likely overnight about the coast and nearby > > ranges > > between Innisfail and Mackay. > > > > Details of Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, for 8pm EST > > Central Pressure : 988 Hectopascals > > Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of > > latitude 18.6 degrees south > > longitude 147.8 degrees east > > about 150 kilometres east of Lucinda > > and 130 kilometres northeast of Townsville > > Recent Movement : west-southwest at about 18 kilometres per hour > > Maximum wind gusts : 120 kilometres per hour > > > > People between Innisfail and Bowen should continue preparations, and in > > particular secure boats and outside property. Further information on > > cyclone > > precautions is available from your local State Emergency Service. > > > > The next advice will be issued at 11pm EST. > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 018 Date: Tue, 04 Apr 2000 20:12:18 +1000 From: MSC [cadence at rubix.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win95; I) To: Aussie-wx [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Lightning in NW Victoria Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Paul Yole has just rung from Murtoa up near Horsham in the NW of Victoria to report 3 lightning active cells in his area - one south of Murtoa, one near Dimboola & one near Warracknabeal. With the general movement of the cloud associated with this system, we may be seeing some lightning closer to Melbourne later tonight! A few reasonable falls over short periods so far with more to come: Cape Nelson 21 Cape Otway 12 Port Fairy 12 Portland 20 So far we have 3 outlooks up on the April page concerned with this system (and that's just today) from Andrew McDonald, Clyve Herbert & Chris Gribben - well worth a read!! http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/apr2000.htm Jane ONeill ASWA - Victoria +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 019 From: "Paul Yole" [raptor at megasat.net.au] To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: Re: aus-wx: Savage Planet Date: Tue, 4 Apr 2000 17:03:35 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Les,

Paul Yole here. The episode of Savage Earth was on here last night also, but due to a fire brigade meeting, I weren't able to watch it. Could I get you to send a copy of the MPEG through to my email please. The addy is raptor at megasat.net.au

Regards,

Paul.

----- Original Message -----

From: Les Crossan

To: aus-wx ; Jane ONeill

Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2000 7:34 AM

Subject: aus-wx: Savage Planet

Everybody -

Having just seen Savage Planet I'll now mpeg it and get it off to my state rep.

The second half showed footage of a flying glider in the UK getting blasted apart by a CG and the rest was devoted to Florida.

Another niggle was the immediate thunder even though the lightning was quite obviously some distance away - AAAAARGHH!

The person asking about TV programmes about Australian sever weather - this surely qualifies. Called "Savage Planet".

Les (UK)

020 Date: Tue, 04 Apr 2000 21:22:03 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Use of TC sirens was: Re: aus-wx: Cyclone Tessie Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Desley and all, I think you'll find that sirens are only used for TC's of Cat 2 or greater. During the warnings, the sirens were asked not to be used until the BoM suddenly realised that it was in fact a Cat 2. With that, the sirens were asked to be broadcasted with the warning. Once Tessi went back to a Cat 1, the sirents were again asked not to be broadcasted. I've noticed the same thing with the WA warning system too. I think the sirents are generally used for destructive winds (130km/h) only. Less then that, and the BoM/SES believes the sirens aren't neccessary. It certainly could be debated. Meanwhile, I wonder if the siren in Brisbane will ever be used - considering the BoM has watched rotating and rising debris fly past their window as a supercell (that dropped a tornado 1-2km after the BoM office), past over and the siren wasn't even touched... Desley Absolon wrote: > > Hi All, > Just out of interest....can anyone explain why the media release for Tessie > was not to be preceded by the Cyclone Warning Siren?? It was expected to > cross the coast in less than 24 hours, and was still intensifying at this > stage?? It crossed the coast at Cat II.... How come no siren?? > > Cyclone Vaughn is on the war path and we are checking the cyclone kit once > again!! Anyone got any theories on where he will go?? > > Raining here at the moment.....and unbelievable humid over the last few days. > > Desley in Cairns > > David Carroll wrote: > > > Hi all,, > > > > Radar showing alot of intensity now.. here is the lastest Bom report.. > > > > IDW50Q00 > > BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > > Queensland Region > > Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre > > > > Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with > > this > > warning. > > > > TOP PRIORITY > > TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9 > > Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane > > For 8 pm EST on Sunday the 2nd of April 2000 > > > > A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between > > Innisfail and Bowen. > > > > Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, is moving closer to the north > > Queensland > > coast. > > > > At 8 pm EST, TESSI was located about 150 kilometres east of Lucinda and > > 130 > > kilometres NE of Townsville moving west-southwest at about 18 kilometres > > per > > hour. > > > > Gales are expected to develop overnight about the coast and islands > > between > > Innisfail and Bowen. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between > > Townsville and Lucinda during the early hours of Monday morning. > > > > If the cyclone centre reaches the coast as late as the morning high > > tide, a > > storm surge is expected with tides rising up to 1 metre above the normal > > level > > with sea flooding in low lying coastal areas. > > > > Heavy to flood rains are likely overnight about the coast and nearby > > ranges > > between Innisfail and Mackay. > > > > Details of Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, for 8pm EST > > Central Pressure : 988 Hectopascals > > Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of > > latitude 18.6 degrees south > > longitude 147.8 degrees east > > about 150 kilometres east of Lucinda > > and 130 kilometres northeast of Townsville > > Recent Movement : west-southwest at about 18 kilometres per hour > > Maximum wind gusts : 120 kilometres per hour > > > > People between Innisfail and Bowen should continue preparations, and in > > particular secure boats and outside property. Further information on > > cyclone > > precautions is available from your local State Emergency Service. > > > > The next advice will be issued at 11pm EST. > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- Anthony Cornelius Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 14 Kinsella St Belmont, Brisbane QLD, 4153 Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 021 Date: Tue, 04 Apr 2000 22:55:12 +1000 From: David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au] X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com] Subject: aus-wx: Storms Central West Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi There. Today was supposed to be my Rostered Day off from working in the Call Centre of Advance Energy. It was not to be. 8.30am this morning I was woken by continuous thunder, small but rolling thunder.. It got the better of me and I got up to have a look outside.. Yep raining,, and lots of fog outside,, could not see Mt Panorama, as my house faces this wonderful race track. The thunder got louder and louder by the minute, I turned my radio scanner and tuned into Advance Energy's radio frequency, and of course it lit up,, they were very busy already with blackouts in the Bathurst area. I know how busy the Control Room at A/E can be and they always need people to man the phones, I rang them and they needed me there, expecting more trouble from lightning storms. As I was getting ready a huge lightning flash lit up my loungeroom. It would have only been about 2 seconds before the loudest clap of thunder I have ever heard in my life. All the windows and walls shook from this thunder. I had pc running, quickly it was turned off and unplugged from wall. About 5 mins later the heavy rain started, then followed by about 1-2cm hail that only lasted about 5 mins. The lightning and thunder continued until I was going to work.. I reckon by this time alot of damage had been done. I arrived at work 9.10am and logged into Emergency Number for Advance Energy.. My first call was a lady advising a power line down to the entrance of Simplot factory in Bathurst, the power line still very live advised to stay away. I got off phone and called Police in Bx to keep people clear of this line. This power line down alone blacked out about 5000 people. Next call from a ex - energy staff saw lightning hit a Air Brake Switch (a circuit breaker for 11,000 volt line)..Well this really caused some problems.. We now had about 15 000 people off.. Mt Panorama was off, this included Telstra Mobilnet, Optus, Tv Stations and Radio Stations for good part of 6 hrs. Several small transformers were out of action in the area from Bathurst to Perthville about 20 km south of Bx. This initial storm started from Parkes which Matt Smith advised me this afternoon. Parkes had already been hit hard by hail 2-3 cm diameter, they also suffered by bad blackouts. After the storm done his thing in Bathurst and Perthville, it headed to Oberon and then we had calls coming in from O'connell, Oberon, Black Springs areas. Jenolan Caves was next on the list, with the Clubs and Restaurants calling in. Now if we head to other parts of the state today. Warren had a broken cross arm brought down by lightning, this held two lines at 22,000 volts. So there goes Warren, Nevertire, Nyngan, Trangie. The whole time I was watching the GPATS lightning tracker, brewing up storms everywhere. One would finish, another would appear. BOM was alive and kicking as well. It really does help to have access to 4 computers in these situations.. We were very lucky not to have Mudgee, Gulgong involved in this storm,, they had their turn about 2 weeks ago. Although Dunedoo and small areas around Mudgee did go out. By about 2pm the Control room had taken about 1000 calls. Bathurst staff were still battling with the damage caused by lightning. It was going to take along time to bring most people back on. . About 4.30pm another storm was heading from Parkes, Condobolin area straight towards Bx again. Instead it caused Grenfell to go out for the second night in a row. Calls also came in for Condobolin. I was told I could leave at 5.30pm,, Bx was slowly coming back on. In all I answered 277 calls for the day and 1500 calls all up were taken.. Matt advised me that we are expecting storms for the next 2 days.. Central West Slopes and Plains have thunderstorm warnings for tonight as I have just seen on TV. I can say it was an eventful day in all, even if I was inside for most of it.. Dave.. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 022 X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.2 Date: Tue, 04 Apr 2000 23:15:28 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Subject: aus-wx: Friday night ASWA meeting Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi everyone, Having thought of the survey reports sent to me, I am quite interested in trying a Friday night for an ASWA meeting. Now this happens to occur on 14th April 2000. We all know what happened on that day in Sydney. Now the meeting will be held at Mario's place (again attempts to have another venue confirmed have failed). So please take note of the Friday change and the time now will be 7:30pm please. Again, bring along the drinks and bicuits and chips and chairs and whatever. Should be another great night. Can we break the attendance of 17!!! What's on? Please bring along your videos from the various chases along and stories for the meeting particularly related to the Sydney hailstorm. Also please bring along some other resources such as reports and books. The change in that date was meant to entice others who have not made it along to come along to the meeting for the first time perhaps. Everyone is welcome to attend. Jimmy Deguara +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------