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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Wednesday, 5 April 2000 |
From Subject
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001 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Storms in Sydney tomorrow ? 21S/HUDAH Update
002 "Patrick Tobin" [patricktobin at ozemail.com.au] Canberra storms, rain and STA
003 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Canberra storms, rain and STA
004 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Storm Chasers...
005 Andrew Miskelly [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] NSW Severe Storms
006 Andrew Miskelly [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] SSW - Kiama
007 "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] April Storms Brewing!!!
008 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] STORM CHASE!!!
009 "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au] TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation.
010 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Bellenden Ker - February 2000
011 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation.
012 "L.J. & B. Smail" [gws at pipeline.com.au] That Low
013 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation updated TCA#5
014 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] That Low
015 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] That Low
016 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation updated TCA#6
017 "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au] rainfall.
018 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation->Bill.
019 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation updated TCA#7
020 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] BSCH Picture Update
021 paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Darwin Radar going off
022 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] That Low-Jimmy's 2c worth
023 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] That Low
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
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Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2000 00:06:10 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms in Sydney tomorrow ? 21S/HUDAH Update
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Thats ok Lindsay, i was near.......along that road that leads to Mudgee
from Lithgow... and i was about 1/2 wayish at the same spot me, david croan
and Jimmy stopped on boxing day 1998 to watch a sunset and weak storm...
The sunset was fantastic.. ive got photos too :)
ill write a report on that chase later on sometime.
Matt
>Gorgeous sunset up here in the Mountains Matt, didn't have the camera
>with me, sadly.
>
>Lindsay P.
>
>Matt Smith wrote:
>>
>> Storms in Sydney tomorrow are a likely bet.
>>
>> NE wind,
>> temps around 26-28
>> 500 temps of around -12
>> 70knot odd Jet at 250
>> -3 LI
>>
>> The cloud from the trough cleared late afternoon and there are clear skies
>> with small fog areas at the moment. A spectacular sunset was seen in sydney
>> today, anyone get photos ? (i was at work)
>>
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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002
From: "Patrick Tobin" [patricktobin at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Canberra storms, rain and STA
Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 06:46:03 +1000
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Hi all - I've been pretty quiet for the last
couple of weeks - reflecting the weather here sadly.
That changed at about 3.30 am this morning with
the sound of heavy rain.
Thunder and lightning became more frequent from
about an hour later. I recorded 31.5mm between 3.30am and 6.00 (I live about 3km
from the Holt guage for later comparisons).
At 6.40am the current band of storms seems to have now moved
to the east of Canberra.
With a low level circulation evident on radar between Benalla
and Seymour, it could be an
interesting morning for some areas.
Also nice to wake up to the following
warning :-)
Patrick
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICEBUREAU OF METEOROLOGYNEW SOUTH
WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 0457 on Wednesday the 5th of April 2000THIS
IS AN UPDATE TO THE 0405
ADVICE TO AMEND THE VALIDITY PERIOD AT THEBOTTOM OF
THE FORM
This advice affects people in the following weather
districts:
Central Tablelands
Southern Tablelands
South West Slopes
Central West Slopes
South Coast
Illawarra
Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this
morning. Some of these are expected to be
severe bringing large hailstones,
destructive winds and very heavy rainfall.
003
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
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Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2000 07:11:21 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra storms, rain and STA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Great Patrick,
Should be an interesting day.
For Sydney, the timing of the main trough associated with the low as it
advances across is the main factor. I hope it stalls somewhat.
Jimmy Deguara
At 06:46 5/04/00 +1000, you wrote:
Hi all - I've been pretty quiet
for the last couple of weeks - reflecting the weather here
sadly.
That changed at about 3.30 am this morning with the sound of
heavy rain.
Thunder and lightning became more frequent from about an
hour later. I recorded 31.5mm between 3.30am and 6.00 (I live about 3km
from the Holt guage for later comparisons).
At 6.40am the current band of storms seems to have now moved
to the east of Canberra.
With a low level circulation evident on radar between
Benalla and Seymour, it could be an
interesting morning for some areas.
Also nice to wake up to the following warning
:-)
Patrick
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICEBUREAU OF METEOROLOGYNEW SOUTH
WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 0457 on Wednesday the 5th of April 2000THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE
0405
ADVICE TO AMEND THE VALIDITY PERIOD AT THEBOTTOM OF THE FORM
This advice affects people in the following weather
districts:
Central Tablelands
Southern Tablelands
South West Slopes
Central West Slopes
South Coast
Illawarra
Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this
morning. Some of these are expected to be
severe bringing large hailstones, destructive winds and very heavy
rainfall.
004
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Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2000 07:31:29 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chasers...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
The best action today will be centered north of Sydney say the Hunter and
mid-North coast. But you will miss the action if you make the wrong move.
So perhaps a good base area to be is Maitland
Jimmy Deguara
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005
Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2000 08:22:48 +1000
From: Andrew Miskelly [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I)
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: NSW Severe Storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
What a great thing it is to wake up to the News Reporter on the radio
telling you there is a STA.
A nice red echo was moving towards Kiama but they're popping up and down
very eratically. There's even one or two possibilities headed for
Wollongong? We'll see if they get here. The cells are moving pretty
quick.
Steady rain here for the last few hours - we seem to be just under the
North end of all the current activity which is strange as we are at the
south of the area for which it was forecast.
Andrew.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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006
Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2000 08:31:17 +1000
From: Andrew Miskelly [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I)
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: SSW - Kiama
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Issued at 08:16 on Wednesday the 5th of April 2000
UPDATED TO CHANGE DIRECTION OF MOTION OF STORMS
This warning affects people in the following Local Government Areas:
Kiama
Also included in this warning are the following Olympic venues:
Nil
This warning is current from 0810 until 0900.
UPDATED
Thunderstorms are currently located just east of Bundanoon and are
forecast
to move towards the EAST SOUTHEAST reaching the are just south of
Gerringong within the next 30 minutes.
Large hailstones, destructive winds and short periods of very heavy
rainfall are possible.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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007
X-Originating-IP: [210.84.10.248]
From: "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: April Storms Brewing!!!
Date: Tue, 04 Apr 2000 15:26:36 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Everyone,
This current weather situation in the east is looking more
interesting every minute. A strong upper level trough is approaching with
the 500 temps extected to fall to around -19c this afternoon in the east.
There is also a surface low moving up from the SW. A 120 to 130 kt
jetstream...Maybe supercells on tne NE side of the low?
- Paul G.
PS. you might not have to travel anywhere today - in fact, I think the best
positiuon may well be right here in Sydney...
>From: Jimmy Deguara
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chasers...
>Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2000 07:31:29 +1000
>
>The best action today will be centered north of Sydney say the Hunter and
>mid-North coast. But you will miss the action if you make the wrong move.
>So perhaps a good base area to be is Maitland
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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008
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Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2000 09:08:30 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: STORM CHASE!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
OK ill be out and about today...
decisions decisions.. Hunter or Sydney OR Hunter or Sydney... ARGGGGGGGGGGG
Where do I go !!! oh well the traffic is a shocker everywhere... Hunter
might be the go...
Updates very much appreciated
0407 069 693
Dont ya love it when you get the day off with a forecast like ours :D
Matt Smith
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009
From: "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation.
Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 08:16:04 +1000
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Hi Carl and all
Thanks Carl for the animated maps - very informative.
Have to correct the perception (in press too unfortunately) that Vaughan is
currently threatening "North Queensland". It is FAR North Queensland, and I
mean FAR. If you take time to look at a map objectively, you will note that
there is a lot of country up here.
Don't want to spook the already battered locals by telling them there is yet
another weather related problem on their doorstep!
Hopefully Vaughan will keep to its current track, and disturb only the
handfull of people who, and infrastructure which, exist towards the tip of
the Cape. It is beautiful and exciting country, but very remote.
Yours in perspective,
Bill
Proserpine Q.
----- Original Message -----
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
> According to the BoM, it is Cat 2, 985 hPa, wind gusts to 130 km/hr and
> intensifying, and heading towards Nth Queensland.
>
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010
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aus-wx: Bellenden Ker - February 2000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 11:54:49 +1000 (EST)
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The Bellenden Ker monthly figures for February are in.
Total 3348 mm
including:
1050 72 hours to 28th
865 72 hours to 10th
272 11th
217 12th
It's not a record for the site, but still pretty impressive!
Blair Trewin
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011
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 11:51:08 +1000 (EST)
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>
> Hi Carl and all
>
> Thanks Carl for the animated maps - very informative.
>
> Have to correct the perception (in press too unfortunately) that Vaughan is
> currently threatening "North Queensland". It is FAR North Queensland, and I
> mean FAR. If you take time to look at a map objectively, you will note that
> there is a lot of country up here.
>
> Don't want to spook the already battered locals by telling them there is yet
> another weather related problem on their doorstep!
Not sure I'd be quite so sanguine about it. It's certainly further
north than Tessi was, but it is still far enough out to sea for a
fair stretch of coast - including Cairns - to be potentially in the
firing line. It also has the potential for further intensification.
At present there is a cyclone warning south to Innisfail, and a watch
to Townsville.
The rainfalls could be worth watching too - it's quite a big system,
and often the heaviest rain can be some way south of the cyclone
centre itself - worth watching if the centre comes as far south as,
say, Cairns.
(I'm in the midst of writing something about the two highest daily
rainfalls in Queensland, the 903 mm at Crohamhurst in 1893 and the
878 mm at Finch Hatton in 1958. Both of these were associated with
tropical cyclones, but were some distance south of the main
circulation - and in the case of Crohamhurst a day or two after
landfall).
Blair Trewin
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012
X-Sender: gws at mail.pipeline.com.au
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Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2000 12:09:06 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "L.J. & B. Smail" [gws at pipeline.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: That Low
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Does anyone know why the BoM & their models completely ignored the
importance of the low that has just produced so much rain in Vic? It
showed up on the Synoptic chart on the 3rd after being predicted by Clyve
back on the 30th. But even after it had appeared they ignored its existence
and failed to even show it on the GASP progs. Early on the 4th Clyve, (then
Chris and Andrew) all predicted "moderate to good rainfall with a few
storms, but the BoM forecast for Geelong was "a few showers to follow,
easing during the day." It subsequently rained all night! (25 mm). I
guess we should be happy there were no Sydney-type thunderstorms!
Lindsay Smail
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013
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 12:58:51 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation updated TCA#5
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The map animation for TC Vaughan at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/VaughanAnim.htm has been updated to BoM TCA#5.
The BoM has issued a WARNING for Lockhart River to Innisfail and a WATCH
extends to Townsville.
BoM TCA #5 and JTWC warning #5 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 11am EST on Wednesday the 5th of April 2000
>
>A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island
>communities between Lockhart River and Innisfail.
>
>A Cyclone WATCH extends from Innisfail south to Townsville.
>
>At 11am EST, Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 2, was centred near latitude
>14.1 South longitude 150.8 East, which is about 620 kilometres east-northeast
>of Cooktown.
>
>The cyclone is expected to move in west to west-southwesterly direction
>towards
>the coast with gales developing between Lockhart river and Innisfail during
>Thursday afternoon.
>
>Vaughan is expected to slowly intensify during the next 24 hours.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone Vaughan, Category 2, at 11am.
>Central Pressure : 980 hpa Hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 30kilometres of
> latitude 14.1 degrees south
> longitude 150.8 degrees east
> about 620 kilometres east-northeast of Cooktown
>Recent Movement : west at 20 kilometres per hour
>
>Maximum wind gusts : 140 kilometres per hour near the centre.
>
>People between Lockhart River and Innisfail should commence preparations.
>If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is available from
>your
>local government or local State Emergency Service.
>
>The next advice will be issued at 2 pm EST.
>556
>WTPS32 PGTW 050300
>IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNING NR 005
> 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> ---
> WARNING POSITION:
> 050000Z5 --- NEAR 13.8S2 151.0E7
> MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
> POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
> POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
> PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 040 NM
>ELSEWHERE
> REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 151.0E7
> ---
> FORECASTS:
> 12 HRS, VALID AT:
> 051200Z8 --- 14.5S0 149.1E5
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 045 NM
>ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
> ---
> 24 HRS, VALID AT:
> 060000Z6 --- 15.1S7 147.4E6
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 060 NM
>ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
> ---
> 36 HRS, VALID AT:
> 061200Z9 --- 15.5S1 145.7E7
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 015 NM
>ELSEWHERE
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
>
>OVER WATER
> 065 NM
>ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
> ---
> EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> 48 HRS, VALID AT:
> 070000Z7 --- 15.7S3 144.1E0
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
> DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
>
>OVER WATER
> 040 NM
>ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> ---
>REMARKS:
>050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 150.5E1.
>TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (VAUGHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
>EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
>AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
>ON 042330Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
>INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
>AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
>CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 23P (VAUGHAN) CONTINUES TO CYCLE
>BETWEEN PERIODS OF INTENSIFICATION AND WEAKENING. IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
>CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 23P
>(VAUGHAN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
>HOURS AND THEN TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE
>FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
>RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS
>THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AS IT APPROACHES
>THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5
>IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051353Z7) AND 060300Z9
>(DTG 060153Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS
>(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
014
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: That Low
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 13:47:41 +1000 (EST)
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>
> Does anyone know why the BoM & their models completely ignored the
> importance of the low that has just produced so much rain in Vic? It
> showed up on the Synoptic chart on the 3rd after being predicted by Clyve
> back on the 30th. But even after it had appeared they ignored its existence
> and failed to even show it on the GASP progs. Early on the 4th Clyve, (then
> Chris and Andrew) all predicted "moderate to good rainfall with a few
> storms, but the BoM forecast for Geelong was "a few showers to follow,
> easing during the day." It subsequently rained all night! (25 mm). I
> guess we should be happy there were no Sydney-type thunderstorms!
> Lindsay Smail
GASP will have missed it because it operates on a fairly large grid
spacing, which would have been insufficient to pick up such a small
system. The more local-scale models (LAPS and, particularly, MESOLAPS)
did pick it up.
However, both these models (and the overseas models that picked it
up) kept the low in SA and had it decaying more or less in situ, with
the heaviest rain over SE SA and far western Victoria. As it turns
out it's moved eastwards, is still intact over southern NSW (the US
model picked this a couple of days ago, but no others did), and should
deepen once it hits the Tasman - MESOLAPS is now going for heavy
overnight rain in SE NSW.
The forecast (which did get progressively amended during the day -
by afternoon 'rain at times' was being predicted for Melbourne
overnight, although with no mention of heavy falls) was consistent
with what the local-scale models were doing - the forecasters, I
would presume, would have enough sense not to make much use of GASP
in such a situation.
Blair Trewin
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
015
Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2000 14:15:41 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: That Low
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Blair and all,
I'm not trying to cause trouble or anything like that - but surely just
because a forecast model(s) are doing something, that it would not be
enough to judge a complete forecast on? Ever since I was young, I've
always been told about these computer models, and don't get me wrong -
they're useful, but they're useful as a guide. I would have thought
forecasts should be compiled by looking at observations, satellite
photos, MSLA's etc. Not just because a forecast model is saying
something. To me that's not really forecasting, that's just an
interpretation of one's favourite model.
I'm certainly no professional forecaster, but I'd have to say its
dissappointing that forecasts would be issued just from looking at
computer models, and only a little bit of the analysis. Where as IMO,
forecasting should involve a lot of analysis of sat pics/looking out the
window/MSLA - and just a little bit of forecast model guidance.
I have a good friend (who would probably most likely be wanted to remain
nameless), who only uses 1-2 satellite photos a day (eg, SBS and the
paper), as well as the MSLA in the paper, or occassionally on the news.
But also incorporates a lot of cloud/sky watching, and is IMO one of the
best forecasters in Australia. Certainly he has to be doing something
right...
Just my two cents...
Blair Trewin wrote:
>
> >
> > Does anyone know why the BoM & their models completely ignored the
> > importance of the low that has just produced so much rain in Vic? It
> > showed up on the Synoptic chart on the 3rd after being predicted by Clyve
> > back on the 30th. But even after it had appeared they ignored its existence
> > and failed to even show it on the GASP progs. Early on the 4th Clyve, (then
> > Chris and Andrew) all predicted "moderate to good rainfall with a few
> > storms, but the BoM forecast for Geelong was "a few showers to follow,
> > easing during the day." It subsequently rained all night! (25 mm). I
> > guess we should be happy there were no Sydney-type thunderstorms!
> > Lindsay Smail
>
> GASP will have missed it because it operates on a fairly large grid
> spacing, which would have been insufficient to pick up such a small
> system. The more local-scale models (LAPS and, particularly, MESOLAPS)
> did pick it up.
>
> However, both these models (and the overseas models that picked it
> up) kept the low in SA and had it decaying more or less in situ, with
> the heaviest rain over SE SA and far western Victoria. As it turns
> out it's moved eastwards, is still intact over southern NSW (the US
> model picked this a couple of days ago, but no others did), and should
> deepen once it hits the Tasman - MESOLAPS is now going for heavy
> overnight rain in SE NSW.
>
> The forecast (which did get progressively amended during the day -
> by afternoon 'rain at times' was being predicted for Melbourne
> overnight, although with no mention of heavy falls) was consistent
> with what the local-scale models were doing - the forecasters, I
> would presume, would have enough sense not to make much use of GASP
> in such a situation.
>
> Blair Trewin
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
016
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 14:52:19 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation updated TCA#6
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All.
The map animation for TC Vaughan at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/VaughanAnim.htm has been updated to BoM TCA#6.
The BoM has issued a WARNING for Cape Melville to Innisfail and a WATCH
extends to N to Lockhart River and S to Townsville.
The animation shows a decidedly SW movement in the last 3 hours which if
continued would place the Cairns - Townsville area directly under threat,
however this may be a minor wobble in the track and would need to be
contined for several more hours for the BoM to say it was moving SW.
BoM TCA #6 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 2 pm EST on Wednesday the 5th of April 2000
>
>A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island
>communities between Cape Melville and Innisfail.
>
>A Cyclone WATCH extends north to Lockhart River and south to Townsville.
>
>At 2pm EST, Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 2, was centred near
>latitude 14.6
>South longitude 150.4 East, which is about 560 kilometres east-northeast of
>Cooktown.
>
>The cyclone is expected to move in a west-southwesterly direction towards the
>coast with gales developing between Cape Melville and Innisfail during
>Thursday
>afternoon.
>
>Vaughan is expected to slowly intensify during the next 24 hours.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone Vaughan, Category 2, at 2pm.
>Central Pressure : 980 hpa Hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
> latitude 14.6 degrees south
> longitude 150.4 degrees east
> about 560 kilometres east-northeast of Cooktown
>Recent Movement : west-southwest at 20 kilometres per hour
>Destructive winds : within 50 kilometres of the centre.
>Maximum wind gusts : 140 kilometres per hour near the centre.
>
>People between Cape Melville and Innisfail should continue preparations.
>If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is available from
>your
>local government office or the State Emergency Service.
>
>The next advice will be issued at 5 pm EST.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
017
From: "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au]
To: "Aussie Weather \(E-mail\)" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: rainfall.
Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 16:09:44 +1000
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>Does anyone know why the BoM & their models completely ignored the
>importance of the low that has just produced so much rain in Vic? It
>showed up on the Synoptic chart on the 3rd after being predicted by Clyve
>back on the 30th. But even after it had appeared they ignored its existence
>and failed to even show it on the GASP progs. Early on the 4th Clyve, (then
>Chris and Andrew) all predicted "moderate to good rainfall with a few
>storms, but the BoM forecast for Geelong was "a few showers to follow,
>easing during the day." It subsequently rained all night! (25 mm). I
>guess we should be happy there were no Sydney-type thunderstorms!
>Lindsay Smail
If only things were that simple Lindsay...
There are a few issues here, which I'll detail separately.
a) Not one of the major forecast models picked substantial cyclogenesis in
advance.
For example, the ECMWF run avaliable Monday am suggested a pressure of
approx 1022 hPa for Tues am near Adelaide, when infact the pressure was near
1012 hPa. All the other models were similar some worse, some a little
better. It was not until the Monday night that the models showed signs of
development, and even then this was underdone. I suspect the problem stems
from the lack of observations in the Australian Bight, meaning the model's
were not analysing well the intensity of the thermal trough which lead to
cyclogenesis - this is no ones fault but a symptom of data sparsity.
b) When development had happened, all models failed to pick the full
intensity of the feature. This is tied to the low being very small scale,
and embedded in a much larger ridge. Again, with higher resolution models
and observations, the analysis would have been better, but we have to work
with today's technology and data. Of course, the atmosphere is inherently
unpredictable, and forecast will never be perfect.
c) All models suggested the low would weaken rapidly, and some toughie
feature develop further north. In fact, my reading of the situation is that
the original low after becoming rapidly occluded near Adelaide yesterday am,
underwent secondary cyclogenesis further east. This allowed the
development/spreading of rain areas across Victoria, which was not predicted
by the models, which had confined heavy precipitation to SE South Australia.
d)The rain areas and cloud had substantially moved to the south of Victoria
yesterday pm, and looked to be substantially clearing. Without model
guidance to suggest otherwise, the official forecast followed the clearing
trend.
e) To selectively quote forecasts is fraught with danger. A couple of
examples,
My discussions with colleagues (most of whom are very keen weather
observers, and all of whom have formally studied meteorology) led to the
consensus that we would be surprised if there was much more than a few mm's
of rain. So, at a guess I had five informed opinions that only light
rainfall was to be expected, while you had three that heavier falls were
likely. If we expect each forecaster to be equally skilled this would
suggest that there was a ~60% change of only light falls and ~40% chance of
heavier falls, so infact the Bureau forecast was the right one to make, and
BOM was just unlucky.. I would prefer forecasts to be probabilistic, so for
example my forecast for last night would have been something like 50% chance
1-5mm, 20% chance 5-10mm, 30% chance >10mm, but the public in general want
an absolute forecast.
Another main issue is hit rate versus false alarm rate. If I forecast heavy
rainfall is possible everyday, then I will correctly predict every heavy
fall. I will also be incorrect on everyday without a heavy fall. To
celebrate a single hit, is only one side of the skill equation. If Clyve,
Chris and Andrew are anything like most storm watchers I know, they will
substantially over forecast the occurrences of bad weather - I know I do
this myself.
f) How good the forecast was depends on where you live. For example, I only
got 10mm last night in Box Hill, so the forecast of light rain clearing was
(unfortunately) spot on :-(
Hope this clear up something.
Cheers,
David.
Climate Analysis Section
National Climate Centre
Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
018
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 15:44:00 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation->Bill.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Bill and All.
>Hi Carl and all
>
>Thanks Carl for the animated maps - very informative.
Thanks, I am glad you appreciate my work.
By the way, do people on the list want me to post whenever I update the
animation or just when the situation changes, like it has in both the last
2 warnings?
Also, please note that whilst I often upload the animations about an hour
after the latest warning, I find it hard to update in the evenings until
about midnight due to server congestion up until about 11pm. There are also
times I am unavailable to update.
>Have to correct the perception (in press too unfortunately) that Vaughan is
>currently threatening "North Queensland". It is FAR North Queensland, and I
>mean FAR. If you take time to look at a map objectively, you will note that
>there is a lot of country up here.
I agree that perhaps I could have written either Far North Queensland or
Cape York, however when I see a cyclone that distance from the coast
located in that region I feel that it has the potential to get a more
southerly component in it's track, and thus by worthy of attention by all
in North Queensland.
I spent many years living in Cairns and on Cape York, and habitually
consider cyclones in that part of the Coral Sea to be a potential threat to
the whole region, having been through several cyclones and near misses
there, and noticed how frequently they can change course without the BoM or
any one else being able to accurately predict the fact. This is not a
criticism of the BoM, but a simple fact of life with cyclones, and I
commend the staff of BoM on their efforts to give meaningful information to
the public with the frequency and accuracy they achieve.
I do agree that the media are sometimes rather sensationalist in their
approach to reporting cyclones and could usefully be a little more
restrained in their approach at times.
>Don't want to spook the already battered locals by telling them there is yet
>another weather related problem on their doorstep!
Do not want to lull them into a false sense of security either!
I would rather they kept the potential cyclone threat in mind whilst
getting on with the job of cleaning up, as knowledge of some level of
threat may alter their priorities, and spur them on to see removal of
debris and securing of buildings etc. as being urgent priorities, as the
situation could quickly change, and a cyclone that appears to pose no
threat at one time could quickly become a very real consideration within a
matter of hours or a day or so. This is actually more important where
people are facing a large clean up, as there is so much to do and time is
of the essence!
The BoM information issued today vindicates what could have been seen as an
over statement of the situation on my part. I have been through too many
cyclones to ignore any cyclone within 1000 km or so of any location on the
basis of a BoM or other agency forecast of future direction, having seen
how quickly the situation can change on so many occasions.
In any case, I pasted the full BoM information below my comment so people
could see for themselves what the latest official information was.
>Hopefully Vaughan will keep to its current track, and disturb only the
>handfull of people who, and infrastructure which, exist towards the tip of
>the Cape. It is beautiful and exciting country, but very remote.
As it has now taken a more WSW track, it looks like Cooktown could be in
it's path, and areas S of there would be likely to cop heavy rain and gales
at least S to Innisfail should it continue on this course. There is no
saying it will not swing more SW towards Cairns or even further S if the
motion shown in last 2 frames on the animation are anything to go by, so
posing a very real threat of heavy rains to Townsville, which needs to be
considered by the locals there in view of the damage resulting from Tessi.
This is not written to 'spook the locals', but is a plain statement of the
situation as it stands in view of the rather less than perfectly
predictable nature of cyclones in this region, and hopefully the effects of
Vaughan will not add more difficulty to the situation in Townsville.
>Yours in perspective,
>Bill
>Proserpine Q.
Regards, with a perspective gained from many years of tracking and
experiencing cyclones,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
019
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 17:55:01 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation updated TCA#7
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
I have started a new map animation for TC Vaughan at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Vaughan2Anim.htm, which has been updated
to BoM TCA#7. Part 1 is at the old URL.
The BoM has issued a WARNING for Cape Melville to Townsville and a WATCH
extends S to Bowen.
The animation shows a decidedly SW movement towards the Innisfail -
Townsville area, and the BoM now says it is moving SW at 20 km/hr.
BoM TCA #7 pasted below.
Next animation update will be uploaded around midnight EST (1400 UTC) due
to server congestion in the evening.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 5pm EST on Wednesday the 5th of April 2000
>
>A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
>Cape Melville and Townsville.
>
>A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Bowen.
>The Cyclone WATCH north to Lockhart River is cancelled.
>
>At 5pm EST, Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 2, was centred near latitude
>14.8 South longitude 150.0 East, which is about 520 kilometres east-northeast
>of Cooktown.
>
>The cyclone is expected to move in a southwesterly direction towards the coast
>with gales developing between Cape Melville and Townsville during Thursday
>afternoon and evening.
>
>VAUGHAN is expected to slowly intensify during the next 24 hours.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 2, at 5pm
>Central Pressure : 980 hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
> latitude 14.8 degrees south
> longitude 150.0 degrees east
> about 520 kilometres east-northeast of Cooktown
> and 520 kilometres northeast of Innisfail
>Recent Movement : southwest at 20 kilometres per hour
>Destructive winds : within 50 kilometres of the centre
>Maximum wind gusts : 140 kilometres per hour near the centre
>
>People between Cape Melville and Townsville should continue preparations.
>If you are unsure what actions to take, information is available from your
>Local Government office or the State Emergency Service.
>
>The next Advice will be issued at 8pm EST.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
020
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 21:45:38 -0400
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: BSCH Picture Update
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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> Hi Anthony,
>
> mmm yes, Maybe too small for a Meso I think, but that is just my
opinion.
>
> Regards
> >snip
> Also, is what I believe to be a possible mesocyclone - this is captured
> from video footage, the URL is:
> http://bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/capture/Jan5/KS040.JPG
One comment. IMHO, the wall cloud is not one and the same as a
mesocyclone. The wall cloud marks the surface location and roots of the
updraft. Generally this is a portion of the mesocyclone, but only a
portion.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
021
From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 18:29:20 +0930
Subject: aus-wx: Darwin Radar going off
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Hi all - massive Thunderstorms all over the top end this arvo.
Massive patches of pink - one giant storm has been going for hours
and has always been yellow & higher in intensity - should be some
interesting totals tomorrow.
Paul in darwin
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
022
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
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Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2000 20:26:30 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: That Low-Jimmy's 2c worth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I suppose I know whom you are talking about. I too follow the old methods
of satpics and synoptic charts. In fact recently I debated this point with
someone that it is possible to use these two resources as well as some of
your observations to make predictions. However, one thing must be noted:
experience plays an important part in such predictions. Knowing how various
systems affect different areas based on the climatology is very important.
For instance, even though Sydney could get some reasonable storms on a day
like today, I believe that from past experience it has worked better in the
Hunter and Mid-North Coast with such a system setup like today. I would
compare today with the likes of 4th January 2000, 26th December 1993 and
24th October 1999 to a certain extent. Even though the conditions varied a
little, the outcomes were similar. The main action was on the Mid-North
Coast...
I am now looking at other sources within the models to try other things. I
suppose I refuse to look too far into the models as I feel it gives a false
sense of security. But I do believe you should give it a go without looking
at other's forecasts. I know some people still persist in checking the BoM
forecast - they simply can't resist.
Jimmy Deguara
At 14:15 5/04/00 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Blair and all,
>
>I'm not trying to cause trouble or anything like that - but surely just
>because a forecast model(s) are doing something, that it would not be
>enough to judge a complete forecast on? Ever since I was young, I've
>always been told about these computer models, and don't get me wrong -
>they're useful, but they're useful as a guide. I would have thought
>forecasts should be compiled by looking at observations, satellite
>photos, MSLA's etc. Not just because a forecast model is saying
>something. To me that's not really forecasting, that's just an
>interpretation of one's favourite model.
>
>I'm certainly no professional forecaster, but I'd have to say its
>dissappointing that forecasts would be issued just from looking at
>computer models, and only a little bit of the analysis. Where as IMO,
>forecasting should involve a lot of analysis of sat pics/looking out the
>window/MSLA - and just a little bit of forecast model guidance.
>
>I have a good friend (who would probably most likely be wanted to remain
>nameless), who only uses 1-2 satellite photos a day (eg, SBS and the
>paper), as well as the MSLA in the paper, or occassionally on the news.
>But also incorporates a lot of cloud/sky watching, and is IMO one of the
>best forecasters in Australia. Certainly he has to be doing something
>right...
>
>Just my two cents...
>
>Blair Trewin wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > Does anyone know why the BoM & their models completely ignored the
> > > importance of the low that has just produced so much rain in Vic? It
> > > showed up on the Synoptic chart on the 3rd after being predicted by
> Clyve
> > > back on the 30th. But even after it had appeared they ignored its
> existence
> > > and failed to even show it on the GASP progs. Early on the 4th Clyve,
> (then
> > > Chris and Andrew) all predicted "moderate to good rainfall with a few
> > > storms, but the BoM forecast for Geelong was "a few showers to follow,
> > > easing during the day." It subsequently rained all night! (25 mm). I
> > > guess we should be happy there were no Sydney-type thunderstorms!
> > > Lindsay Smail
> >
> > GASP will have missed it because it operates on a fairly large grid
> > spacing, which would have been insufficient to pick up such a small
> > system. The more local-scale models (LAPS and, particularly, MESOLAPS)
> > did pick it up.
> >
> > However, both these models (and the overseas models that picked it
> > up) kept the low in SA and had it decaying more or less in situ, with
> > the heaviest rain over SE SA and far western Victoria. As it turns
> > out it's moved eastwards, is still intact over southern NSW (the US
> > model picked this a couple of days ago, but no others did), and should
> > deepen once it hits the Tasman - MESOLAPS is now going for heavy
> > overnight rain in SE NSW.
> >
> > The forecast (which did get progressively amended during the day -
> > by afternoon 'rain at times' was being predicted for Melbourne
> > overnight, although with no mention of heavy falls) was consistent
> > with what the local-scale models were doing - the forecasters, I
> > would presume, would have enough sense not to make much use of GASP
> > in such a situation.
> >
> > Blair Trewin
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>(ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>14 Kinsella St
>Belmont, Brisbane
>QLD, 4153
>Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
>reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
023
X-Originating-IP: [203.166.12.249]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: That Low
Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2000 21:59:11 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi every1,
I think that a lotta people may be (like me) a bit "model-bound"!
I checked the models early on Tuesday (at least a 12 hour lag there) and was
"surprised" that the developing low hadn't been analysed. As it developed
during the day (via satpix) I felt, as probably anyone else with some wx
nous did, that it was spinning up...(the 0000Z synoptic chart analysed its
trajectory quite well, I thought) and started to predict, if not direct
storms, the rear-end of the low stoms! BTW...the fact that the local temps
were about 3 - 5 C above predicted values early on suggested to me that
early analyses may have been a bit off!
Do I blame the models? No.
Do I blame the Bureau? No. They at least have the chance to alter their
forecasts when conditions obviously have changed.
Be nice to think that every 24 - 48 hour forecast YOU issued would be
correct! Me? I'm not that good...
Geez...glad I got that off my chest!
BTW...got a mammoth 1.5 mm here in Wycheproof (and lightning and thunder!!!)
Kevin from...well you know where!
>From: Blair Trewin
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: That Low
>Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 13:47:41 +1000 (EST)
>
> >
> > Does anyone know why the BoM & their models completely ignored the
> > importance of the low that has just produced so much rain in Vic? It
> > showed up on the Synoptic chart on the 3rd after being predicted by
>Clyve
> > back on the 30th. But even after it had appeared they ignored its
>existence
> > and failed to even show it on the GASP progs. Early on the 4th Clyve,
>(then
> > Chris and Andrew) all predicted "moderate to good rainfall with a few
> > storms, but the BoM forecast for Geelong was "a few showers to follow,
> > easing during the day." It subsequently rained all night! (25 mm). I
> > guess we should be happy there were no Sydney-type thunderstorms!
> > Lindsay Smail
>
>GASP will have missed it because it operates on a fairly large grid
>spacing, which would have been insufficient to pick up such a small
>system. The more local-scale models (LAPS and, particularly, MESOLAPS)
>did pick it up.
>
>However, both these models (and the overseas models that picked it
>up) kept the low in SA and had it decaying more or less in situ, with
>the heaviest rain over SE SA and far western Victoria. As it turns
>out it's moved eastwards, is still intact over southern NSW (the US
>model picked this a couple of days ago, but no others did), and should
>deepen once it hits the Tasman - MESOLAPS is now going for heavy
>overnight rain in SE NSW.
>
>The forecast (which did get progressively amended during the day -
>by afternoon 'rain at times' was being predicted for Melbourne
>overnight, although with no mention of heavy falls) was consistent
>with what the local-scale models were doing - the forecasters, I
>would presume, would have enough sense not to make much use of GASP
>in such a situation.
>
>Blair Trewin
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
______________________________________________________
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
| Document: 000405.htm
Updated: 03 June 2000 |
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