|
Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Thursday, 6 April 2000 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation updated TCA#9
002 "Keith & Jason" [kevans at kisser.net.au] TC Vaughan looking MUCH better now :)
003 "Keith & Jason" [kevans at kisser.net.au] TC Vaughan expected to intensify to CAT 3 TODAY!!
004 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation updated TCA#11
005 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] SEVERE TC VAUGHAN Cat 3
006 "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au] Re: Severe tropical Cyclone Vaughan, Category 3.
007 "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au] forecasting
008 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] SEVERE TC VAUGHAN Cat 3
009 Andrew Boskell [a_boskell at yahoo.com] Interesting URL
010 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] SEVERE TC VAUGHAN Cat 3
011 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Threat from TC Vaughan eases
012 "Peter Tristram" [petertri at midcoast.com.au] decent rain
013 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Ex-TC Vaughan update
014 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Fwd: Lightning Video
015 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Fwd: Lightning Video
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 01:13:28 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation updated TCA#9
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The map animation of TC Vaughan at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Vaughan2Anim.htm, has been updated to BoM
TCA#9
The area of gales (yellow on the animation) has shrunk considerably, and
JTWC are predicting that it will make landfall just north of Cairns at
about 4pm EST Friday afternoon (070600 UTC).
BoM TCA #9 and JTWC #6 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 11 pm EST on Wednesday the 5th of April 2000
>
>A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Cape
>Melville and Townsville.
>
>A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Bowen.
>
>At 11 pm EST, Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 2, was centred near latitude
>15.2 South longitude 149.4 East, which is about 450 kilometres east of
>Cooktown.
>
>
>The cyclone is expected to move in a general southwesterly direction
>towards the
>coast with gales developing between Cape Melville and Townsville during
>Thursday
>afternoon and evening.
>
>VAUGHAN is expected to slowly intensify during the next 24 hours.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 2, at 11pm
>Central Pressure : 980 hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
> latitude 15.2 degrees south
> longitude 149.4 degrees east
> about 450 kilometres east of Cooktown
> and 440 kilometres northeast of Innisfail
>Recent Movement : southwest at 15 to 20 kilometres per hour
>Destructive winds : within 50 kilometres of the centre
>Maximum wind gusts : 140 kilometres per hour near the centre
>
>People between Cape Melville and Townsville should continue preparations.
>If you are unsure what actions to take, information is available from your
>Local Government office or the State Emergency Service.
>
>The next Advice will be issued at 2 am EST Thursday.
>136
>WTPS32 PGTW 051500
>SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNING NR 006
> 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> ---
> WARNING POSITION:
> 051200Z8 --- NEAR 15.0S6 149.8E2
> MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
> POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
> POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
> PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 149.8E2
> ---
> FORECASTS:
> 12 HRS, VALID AT:
> 060000Z6 --- 15.7S3 148.5E8
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
> ---
> 24 HRS, VALID AT:
> 061200Z9 --- 16.1S8 147.3E5
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 060 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
> ---
> 36 HRS, VALID AT:
> 070000Z7 --- 16.5S2 146.4E5
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 020 NM ELSEWHERE
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> OVER WATER
> 065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
> ---
> EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> 48 HRS, VALID AT:
> 071200Z0 --- 16.8S5 145.3E3
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
> DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> OVER WATER
> 040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> ---
>REMARKS:
>051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 149.5E9.
>TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (VAUGHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
>EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
>AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
>ON 051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
>BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
>ANIMATED INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
>CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 23P (VAUGHAN) HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
>PAST 12 HOURS. TC 23P (VAUGHAN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
>SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
>OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
>TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
>FAVORABLE CLOSER TO LANDFALL. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AT APPROXIMATELY
>070600Z3 JUST NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
>WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG
>060153Z5) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
>21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
002
From: "Keith & Jason" [kevans at kisser.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Vaughan looking MUCH better now :)
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 01:01:48 +0800
Organization: Karratha AWS
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all
Just saw the latest IR sat of TC Vaughan.....HUGE convection area around the
LLC now, it looks like its FINALLY getting its act together!! :)
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/satimages/gmsd.jpg
I wouldnt be surprised if it intensifys to a cat 3 today........
We will see what happens....
Regards
Jason
Karratha W.A
http://www.kisser.net.au/kevans/weather/
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
003
From: "Keith & Jason" [kevans at kisser.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Vaughan expected to intensify to CAT 3 TODAY!!
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 03:04:33 +0800
Organization: Karratha AWS
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey all
Vaughan is getting much more organised now and the pressure is now down to
975 expected to intensify further to a Cat 3 today!
Looking great on the Sat pic now!
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/satimages/gmsd.jpg
I hope TC preperations are getting well under way along the threatened
coastline now this is going to be a severe TC!
Current Warning area and track map from the BoM:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW55Q04.shtml
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For 5 am EST on Thursday the 6th of April 2000
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Cape
Melville and Townsville.
A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Bowen.
At 5 am EST, Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 2, was centred near latitude
15.2 South longitude 148.0 East, which is about 300 kilometres east of
Cooktown.
The cyclone is expected to move in a west-southwesterly then southwesterly
direction towards the coast with gales developing between Cape Melville and
Townsville during the afternoon and evening.
VAUGHAN is expected to slowly intensify to a Category 3 severe cyclone
during
the day.
Details of Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 2, at 5 am
Central Pressure : 975 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 15.2 degrees south
longitude 148.0 degrees east
about 300 kilometres east of Cooktown
and 400 kilometres northeast of Innisfail
Recent Movement : west-southwest at 20 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : within 50 kilometres of the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 150 kilometres per hour near the centre, increasing to
170
kilometres per hour during the day.
People between Cape Melville and Townsville should continue preparations.
If you are unsure what actions to take, information is available from your
Local Government office or the State Emergency Service.
The next Advice will be issued at 8 am EST Thursday.
Regards
Jason
Karratha W.A
http://www.kisser.net.au/kevans/weather/
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
004
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 06:28:49 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Vaughan Cat 2 Map Animation updated TCA#11
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The map animation of TC Vaughan at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Vaughan2Anim.htm, has been updated to BoM
TCA#11
It seems to have moved quite a distance W in the last few hours towards
Cooktown, so making the Cairns area a more likely looking destination for
it if it resumes WSW then SW movement as predicted by the BoM. The area of
gales (yellow on the animation) has increased in extent, and the latest
advice says that it has increased in intensity to 975 hPa with gusts to 150
km/hr.
See Keith & Jason's thread "TC Vaughan expected to intensify to CAT 3
TODAY!!" for BoM TCA#11.
Regards,
Carl.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
005
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 08:37:54 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: SEVERE TC VAUGHAN Cat 3
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The map animation of TC Vaughan at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Vaughan2Anim.htm, has been updated to BoM
TCA#12
Looks like Vaughan is now Cat 3 with wind gusts to 170 km/hr and expected
to cross the coast between Cairns and Cooktown this evening.
BoM TCA#12 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters in the area Cape Melville to
>Lucinda are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 8am EST on Thursday the 6th of April 2000
>
>SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VAUGHAN HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
>COAST.
>
>
>A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Cape
>Melville and Lucinda.
>
>A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Bowen.
>
>At 8 am EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 3, was about 250
>kilometres east of Cooktown and 260 kilometres northeast of Cairns.
>
>The cyclone is expected to move in a west-southwesterly direction with
>destructive wind gusts developing on the coast between Cape Melville and
>Lucinda
>later this afternoon.
>
>The very destructive core of Vaughan with wind gusts to 170 kilometres per is
>hour is expected to cross the coast between Cooktown and Cairns later this
>evening.
>
>Coastal residents between Cooktown and Innisfail are specifically warned
>of the
>dangerous storm surge as the cyclone nears the coast. The sea is likely to
>rise
>steadily up to 2 metres above the normal tide with damaging waves and flooding
>of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
>
>Flood rains are likely to develop along the coast and ranges between Cooktown
>and Bowen overnight.
>
>Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 3, at 8 am:
>Central Pressure : 970 hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
> latitude 15.3 degrees south
> longitude 147.5 degrees east
> about 250 kilometres east of Cooktown
> and 260 kilometres northeast of Cairns
>Recent Movement : west-southwest at 20 kilometres per hour
>Destructive winds : within 50 kilometres of the centre
>Maximum wind gusts : 170 kilometres per hour near the centre.
>
>People between Cape Melville and Lucinda should complete preparations quickly
>and be prepared to shelter in a safe place and listen to the next advice.
>
>The next Advice will be issued at 11 am EST.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
006
From: "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Severe tropical Cyclone Vaughan, Category 3.
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 08:39:38 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Good morning list, the following is the latest advice isued.
IDW50Q00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters in the area Cape Melville to
Lucinda are requested to use the Standard Emergency Warning Signal.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For 8am EST on Thursday the 6th of April 2000
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VAUGHAN HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST.
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Cape
Melville and Lucinda.
A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Bowen.
At 8 am EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 3, was about 250
kilometres east of Cooktown and 260 kilometres northeast of Cairns.
The cyclone is expected to move in a west-southwesterly direction with
destructive wind gusts developing on the coast between Cape Melville and Lucinda
later this afternoon.
The very destructive core of Vaughan with wind gusts to 170 kilometres per is
hour is expected to cross the coast between Cooktown and Cairns later this
evening.
Coastal residents between Cooktown and Innisfail are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm surge as the cyclone nears the coast. The sea is likely to rise
steadily up to 2 metres above the normal tide with damaging waves and flooding
of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
Flood rains are likely to develop along the coast and ranges between Cooktown
and Bowen overnight.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 3, at 8 am:
Central Pressure : 970 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 15.3 degrees south
longitude 147.5 degrees east
about 250 kilometres east of Cooktown
and 260 kilometres northeast of Cairns
Recent Movement : west-southwest at 20 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : within 50 kilometres of the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 170 kilometres per hour near the centre.
People between Cape Melville and Lucinda should complete preparations quickly
and be prepared to shelter in a safe place and listen to the next advice.
The next Advice will be issued at 11 am EST.
007
From: "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au]
To: "Aussie Weather \(E-mail\)" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: forecasting
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 10:09:11 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>I'm not trying to cause trouble or anything like that - but surely just
Rest assured Blair's skin is pretty thick! No one on this list should feel
adverse to expressing their legitimate views. A great thing about this list
is the relaxed nature of members, and the fact that we have a range of
knowledge and views.
We should all try not to take anything on this list personal and let our
pride get in the way - all members should keep in mind that there
participation on this list marks them as a little nutty, anyway!
>because a forecast model(s) are doing something, that it would not be
>enough to judge a complete forecast on? Ever since I was young, I've
>always been told about these computer models, and don't get me wrong -
>they're useful, but they're useful as a guide. I would have thought
>forecasts should be compiled by looking at observations, satellite
>photos, MSLA's etc. Not just because a forecast model is saying
>something. To me that's not really forecasting, that's just an
>interpretation of one's favourite model.
Anthony, it might come as somewhat of a surprise, but I think that by and
large
forecasting beyond about 3 hours (ie beyond so-called nowcasting), has
almost
developed (degenerated?) to the stage where model predictions are primary
determinants of the forecast. It is only in those situations where the model
forecast is obviously wrong (eg the first few hours of the model forecast
are substantially different from the atmospheric developments), or when
models are known to be less reliable (for example mesoscale activity), that
the official human forecast is likely to deviate substantially from the
avaliable model forecasts.
I can see three main drivers behind this, but there are obviously many more,
1) the forecaster is now overloaded with observations, meaning that they can
no longer assimilate in their mind all the necessary information - that is
without the help of models they cannot form optimal conceptual pictures of
what is going on. For example, the Bureau now obtains typically 500,000
scatterometer wind observations across the Southern Hemisphere oceans.
2) forecasters are required to issue many more products than in the past,
with fewer staff. For example, a decade or so ago, forecasts were for just
one day, now they are for 4 and in some cases 7 days.
3) the models are (in most situations) better than humans. The most recently
developed model based forecast system developed in BOM (Model Output
Statistics - MOF), has apparently demonstrated equal (or better) skill in
forecasting than human forecasters. This means the role of the human changes
from forecast development, to forecast improvement - ie correct model
forecasts for know/perceived errors.
The real value of human is in the unusual situation, on the short time
scale, or on the small time scale. As a rule, the smaller the system, the
shorter the forecast range, and the more unusual, the worse the models will
do, and the more important the human. Of course, it is the unusual
situations which are often the most dangerous to property and life, meaning
the human is still vitally important to forecasting.
Cheers,
DAJ
Climate Analysis Section
National Climate Centre
Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
008
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SEVERE TC VAUGHAN Cat 3
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 10:59:22 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Vaughan looks like it could be seriously nasty. The worst-case
scenario for Cairns has always been a category-4 or -5 (realistically
4, given how rare 5's are in the Coral Sea) making landfall just to
the north at high tide. This is exactly the track that JTWC seems
to be putting it on, although landfall time is less certain.
High tides are at 10.22 tonight, 10.15 tomorrow morning and 11.10
tomorrow night. Tonight's high tide is also quite a high one even
under normal conditions.
Blair Trewin
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
009
Date: Wed, 5 Apr 2000 16:32:47 -0700 (PDT)
From: Andrew Boskell [a_boskell at yahoo.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Interesting URL
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
G'day All,
Found this site the other day. Rather interesting java applet on the front page. Takes a little time to load.
http://www.prazen.com/cori/
Andrew Boskell
"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"
Do You Yahoo!?
010
Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger.
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SEVERE TC VAUGHAN Cat 3
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 12:52:57 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hmm, I find it difficult to make out any organised circulation on the radar.
Sure there is lots of precip, but it all seems to be moving uniformly SW.
This seems to be very different from other TC's I have observed on radar
this season, where there have been distinct spiral bands and obvious
circulation. Am i missing something?
John.
>snip
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SEVERE TC VAUGHAN Cat 3
Vaughan looks like it could be seriously nasty.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
011
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 15:39:43 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Threat from TC Vaughan eases
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The map animation of TC Vaughan at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Vaughan2Anim.htm, has been updated to BoM
TCA#14
The BoM say TC Vaughan has weakened to Cat 1, 990 hPa, with wind gusts to
110 km/hr, and drifted a little to the NE, easing the threat to the Cairns
area.
Looks like Vaughan is behaving in the rather unpredictable manner
characteristic of many TC's in the Coral Sea!
Will it dissapate, or re-intensify? Will it drift towards Cape York of move
further out into the Coral Sea?
BoM forecast a resumption westerly movement this evening, and JTWC forecast
an ongoing WSW movement to make landfall between Cairns and Rossville
tomorrow morning between 1 am and 5 am EST (UTC +10 hrs).
Looks like anyones guess at this time!
BoM TCA#14 and JTWC #7 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
>warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 2 pm EST on Thursday the 6th of April 2000
>
>A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
>Lockhart
>River and Lucinda.
>
>A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Bowen.
>
>The immediate threat from Tropical Cyclone Vaughan has eased.
>
>At 2 pm EST, Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 1, was about 240 kilometres
>east-northeast of Cooktown and 280 kilometres northeast of Cairns. The cyclone
>has become near stationary as it reorganizes.
>
>VAUGHAN is expected to resume moving in a general westerly direction this
>evening.
>
>As the cyclone has weakened the risk of a significant storm surge has eased.
>However, tides could remain slightly higher than normal.
>
>Flood rains are likely to develop along the coast and ranges between Cooktown
>and Bowen overnight and preliminary flood warnings have been issued.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, Category 1, at 2 pm:
>Central Pressure : 990 hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
> latitude 15.0 degrees south
> longitude 147.5 degrees east
> about 240 kilometres east-northeast of Cooktown
> and 280 kilometres northeast of Cairns
>Recent Movement : near stationary
>Maximum wind gusts : 110 kilometres per hour near the centre.
>
>People between Lockhart River and Lucinda should complete preparations and
>listen to the next advice at 5 pm EST.
>507
>WTPS32 PGTW 060300
>IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNING NR 007
> 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> ---
> WARNING POSITION:
> 060000Z6 --- NEAR 15.4S0 147.4E6
> MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
> POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
> POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
> PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 050 NM ELSEWHERE
> REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 147.4E6
> ---
> FORECASTS:
> 12 HRS, VALID AT:
> 061200Z9 --- 15.9S5 145.7E7
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> OVER WATER
> 055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
> ---
> 24 HRS, VALID AT:
> 070000Z7 --- 16.6S3 143.9E7
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
> VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
> ---
> 36 HRS, VALID AT:
> 071200Z0 --- 17.3S1 141.9E5
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
> DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
> ---
>REMARKS:
>060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 147.0E2.
>TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (VAUGHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 133 NM
>NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
>DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3
>INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
>BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND
>SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 40 KNOTS. A 052132Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING
>MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTED A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
>(LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE
>SOUTHWEST. A 052323Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS
>FAILED TO REVEAL A DISCERNABLE LLCC BUT DID INDICATE A DEVELOPING
>AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT
>POSITION. LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA IS
>FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A MID-
>LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TC 23P (VAUGHAN)
>SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
>TC 23P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE
>BETWEEN CAIRNS AND ROSSVILLE BETWEEN THE NEXT 12 TO 16 HOURS.
>MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
>WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6).
>REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
>TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
012
From: "Peter Tristram" [petertri at midcoast.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: decent rain
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 17:32:03 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
At last some heavy rain near Coffs. Been constant all day and the odd patch
of green on the radar is quite torrential, not Darwin torrential though!
Around 60mm today and still continuing. I can't tell from the radar how far
south it extends. Is it raining at Port, anyone? There seems to be a fair
bit of showery weather extending north and the swirl below the storm belt in
SE Qld looks interesting!
Peter
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
013
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 18:27:44 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Ex-TC Vaughan update
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The map animation of TC Vaughan at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Vaughan2Anim.htm, has been updated to BoM
TCA#15
The BoM say TC Vaughan has weakened to a tropical low, further easing the
threat to the Cairns
area. They are keeping a close eye on it for signs of regeneration.
BoM TCA#15 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
>warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 4.30 pm EST on Thursday the 6th of April 2000
>
>A Cyclone WARNING is no longer current.
>
>A Cyclone WATCH is being maintained between Lockhart River and Lucinda.
>
>Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN has weakened further during the past few hours.
>
>At 4 pm EST, a tropical low, Ex Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN, was located
>about 240
>kilometres east-northeast of Cooktown, and near stationary.
>
>Gales are not expected on the coast and islands in the next 24 hours.
>
>Heavy rains may develop along the coast and ranges between Cooktown and Ingham
>overnight and preliminary flood warnings have been issued.
>
>People between Lockhart River and Lucinda should listen to the next advice
>at 11
>pm EST.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
014
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.2
Date: Thu, 06 Apr 2000 19:07:57 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: Lightning Video
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Though people on the list might be interested in this site.
Jimmy Deguara
>My site is at www.DaStrike.com and I have been on the
>web for only a year now.
>
>I am not a stormchaser, just a computer tech with one lucky shot.
>My only "claim to fame".
>
>Thanks for any assistance.
>Take care,
>Hernan
>The Strike - http://www.DaStrike.com
>The Closest 12 Stroke Lightning Strike Ever Caught On Video
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
015
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32)
Date: Thu, 06 Apr 2000 19:34:10 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fwd: Lightning Video
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
This guy signed the guestbook on my site about a week ago.
Matt Smith
>Though people on the list might be interested in this site.
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
>
>
>
>>My site is at www.DaStrike.com and I have been on the
>>web for only a year now.
>>
>>I am not a stormchaser, just a computer tech with one lucky shot.
>>My only "claim to fame".
>>
>>Thanks for any assistance.
>>Take care,
>>Hernan
>>The Strike - http://www.DaStrike.com
>>The Closest 12 Stroke Lightning Strike Ever Caught On Video
>
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
| Document: 000406.htm
Updated: 03 June 2000 |
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] |