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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Friday, 7 April 2000 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 Harald Richter [hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa forecasting (fwd)
002 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] NZ Weather
003 "Lyle Pakula" [remote at leski.com.au] NZ Weather
004 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] forecasting (fwd)
005 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] 21S/HUDAH : a disaster for ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR
006 Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au] decent rain
007 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Archive Update...
008 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Global Stratospheric/Tropospheric Temperatures...
009 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] TC Vaughan's dissappearing act
010 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] decent rain
011 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Vaughan's dissappearing act
012 "Dean Sgarbossa" [deansgar at alphalink.com.au] (fwd) Televison program on Australian weather
013 "MSC" [cadence at rubix.net.au] TC Vaughan's disappearing act
014 "Rune Peitersen" [runepeitersen at hotmail.com] TC Vaughan's disappearing act
015 "Peter Tristram" [petertri at midcoast.com.au] decent rain
016 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Vaughan's disappearing act
017 paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Re:
018 "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au] Re:
019 "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] Re:
020 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Re:
021 "Keith & Jason" [kevans at kisser.net.au] TC Hudah makes a turn for the worst :(
022 "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz] Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #545
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: Harald Richter [hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov]
Subject: aus-wx: forecasting (fwd)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 12:07:40 -0500 (CDT)
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Hi all,
DDJones typed:
> Anthony, it might come as somewhat of a surprise, but I think that by and
> large
> forecasting beyond about 3 hours (ie beyond so-called nowcasting), has
> almost
> developed (degenerated?) to the stage where model predictions are primary
> determinants of the forecast. It is only in those situations where the model
> forecast is obviously wrong (eg the first few hours of the model forecast
> are substantially different from the atmospheric developments), or when
> models are known to be less reliable (for example mesoscale activity), that
> the official human forecast is likely to deviate substantially from the
> avaliable model forecasts.
For almost all forecasts beyond a few hours numerical models
are the BASIS of the forecast decisions. A bad forecaster would see
a low over Adelaide in a 24 hour model forecast, and then
predict that there will be a low over Adelaide in 24 hours.
Most (hopefully all) forecasters use their expertise (under the
time pressures of operational forecasting!) to *adjust* the model
forecast in order to improve it. They compare it to other model
runs and previous runs of the same model (internal consistency).
If other models and previous runs of the same model *consistently*
show that low over Adelaide, that low becomes more credible.
Some forecasters somehow manage to check the model initialisation
and derive adjustments from initialisation deficiencies (tough
to do while sitting in the hot seat with the phones ringing).
A classic thing to check is the model weak points. One example
would be the way pre-existing convection modifies the atmosphere.
Current parameterizations sometimes (often) do a BAD job at capturing
convective outflow boundaries or the redistribution of heat and momentum
due to deep moist convection, for example. Experienced
forecasters can make proper adjustments for those deficiencies.
ATM I believe that a model/human combination yields a better
forecast than model by itself. Otherwise, why bother having
forecasters?
My $0.01 worth, Harald
--
---------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069
ph.: (405) 366-0430
fax: (405) 579-0808
email: hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
---------------------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
002
Date: Thu, 06 Apr 2000 05:41:50 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NZ Weather
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Ben Tichborne from NZ, are you still with us?
How's the weather over in NZ just now? Just wondering what effect that
low off our East coast had over there?
Any others feel free to comment.
Lindsay Pearce
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003
From: "Lyle Pakula" [remote at leski.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ Weather
Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 10:15:16 +1000
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Hi,
> Ben Tichborne from NZ, are you still with us?
>
> How's the weather over in NZ just now? Just wondering what effect that
> low off our East coast had over there?
>
> Any others feel free to comment.
>
> Lindsay Pearce
>
This is from the Met NZ severe weather bulletin. It should be noted that the
warnings removed were a lot more interesting than todays. They had 180mm
warnings around Fox Glacier and 150mm along most of the north westcoast due
to the Tasman low pushing a belt of warm, moist air down that way. Not sure
where to find data on what actually did fall though.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:48 am 07-Apr-2000
SITUATION AT 8 am
A depression off Fiordland is re-developing east of Otago and is expected to
move away to the southeast today.
A front from the north Tasman Sea to Buller is moving slowly east preceded
by a band of heavy rain and a strong, very moist northerly airstream. The
front should lie from about 60km west of Cape Reinga to Taumarunui and
Wairarapa at midnight, but will be starting to weaken by then.
The front is followed by cool south or southwest winds.
HEAVY RAIN WARNING
AREA/S AFFECTED: RANGES OF BULLER AND NELSON INCLUDING NELSON LAKES AREA AND
THE RICHMOND RANGES ALSO MARLBOROUGH SOUNDS
FORECAST:
RANGES OF BULLER AND NORTHWEST NELSON
In the 4 to 6 hours from 9am expect another 35 to 50mm of rain.
RICHMOND RANGE AND NELSON LAKES AREA ALSO MARLBOROUGH SOUNDS
In the 6 to 9 hours from 9am expect another 70 to 90mm of rain peaking about
20mm per hour in the afternoon.
FREEZING LEVEL: 3000 metres, falling to 1700 metres behind
the front.
WARNINGS NO LONGER IN FORCE
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
004
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 21:00:30 -0400
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: forecasting (fwd)
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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We have talked about the importance of the proper surface analysis. It you
don't get that right, you will in all likelihood miss the forecast. For
convective storms, this is especially true!
Les
> > Anthony, it might come as somewhat of a surprise, but I think that by
and
> > large
> > forecasting beyond about 3 hours (ie beyond so-called nowcasting), has
> > almost
> > developed (degenerated?) to the stage where model predictions are
primary
> > determinants of the forecast. It is only in those situations where the
model
> > forecast is obviously wrong (eg the first few hours of the model
forecast
> > are substantially different from the atmospheric developments), or when
> > models are known to be less reliable (for example mesoscale activity),
that
> > the official human forecast is likely to deviate substantially from the
> > avaliable model forecasts.
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
essage text written by INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com
>> Anthony, it might come as somewhat of a surprise, but I think that by
and
> large
> forecasting beyond about 3 hours (ie beyond so-called nowcasting), has
> almost
> developed (degenerated?) to the stage where model predictions are primary
> determinants of the forecast. It is only in those situations where the
model
> forecast is obviously wrong (eg the first few hours of the model forecast
> are substantially different from the atmospheric developments), or when
> models are known to be less reliable (for example mesoscale activity),
that
> the official human forecast is likely to deviate substantially from the
> avaliable model forecasts.<
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
005
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 11:19:53 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: 21S/HUDAH : a disaster for ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
Spare a thought for the people of Madagascar.
Just recieved this email, and thought I would pass it on, and below that is
the latest warning on Hudah from JTWC.
Regards,
Carl.
> Dear all, just recorded a report from Reunion tv with pictures and
>comments sent from both Malagasy tv and reporter from Reunion. ANTALAHA
>the worldwide capital for vanilla is destroyed at 90%. Based on official
>comments gusts are said to have outweighed 300K/H there. For the
>ANTALAHA region there are 18 dead and 20 overall so far. 300 000 people
>are said to be officially registered as disaster-stricken . Even the
>public buildings more resistant have fared badly , let alone the light
>dwellings. People are wandering around in the town left to their own
>devices . Shelters are not available since public buildings have almost
>all lost their roofs. 21S/HUDAH is said to be the worst cyclone to have
>stricken the region for the last 20 years. The reporter just ended
>saying that the Malagasy government was waiting for internatioanal
>relief. Really the pictures are telling and as usual with the
>aftermaths of such a TC , it looks like a bomb has been dropped...
>Patrick
>897
>WTXS31 PGTW 062100
>SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 030
> 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> ---
> WARNING POSITION:
> 061800Z5 --- NEAR 19.0S0 38.7E8
> MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
> POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
> POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
> PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
> 060 NM ELSEWHERE
> REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 38.7E8
> ---
> FORECASTS:
> 12 HRS, VALID AT:
> 070600Z3 --- 19.7S7 38.7E8
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
> 070 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
> ---
> 24 HRS, VALID AT:
> 071800Z6 --- 20.5S7 39.1E3
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
> 070 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
> ---
> 36 HRS, VALID AT:
> 080600Z4 --- 21.2S5 39.5E7
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
> 060 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
> ---
> EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> 48 HRS, VALID AT:
> 081800Z7 --- 22.2S6 39.8E0
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
> 050 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
> ---
> 72 HRS, VALID AT:
> 091800Z8 --- 24.2S8 39.6E8
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
> 040 NM ELSEWHERE
> ---
>REMARKS:
>062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 38.7E8.
>TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
>SOUTHEAST OF PORTO DE QUELIMANE, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
>SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
>POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
>WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
>OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED (I/R) IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPID
>INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS IMPROVED
>DEFINITION OF THE EYE WITH A SIGNIFICANT BANDING FEATURE OVER THE
>WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 061807Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
>IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATED A 15 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH A
>CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
>I/R AND WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOW IMPROVED OUTFLOW PARTICULARLY
>OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. TC 21S IS TRACKING WITHIN A WEAKNESS
>IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED
>JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AFRICA. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
>GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY
>SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO
>THE SOUTHEAST. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
>THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
>061800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4),
>070900Z6 (DTG 070751Z0), 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7) AND 072100Z0 (DTG
>071951Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32
>PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
006
X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au
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Date: Fri, 07 Apr 2000 11:30:25 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: decent rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
The heavy falls hit my area from late afternoon and into the evening.
Wollongbar received 57mm and McLeans Ridges 52mm, both sites on the
Alstonville plateau west of Ballina. Most of the rain came in gusty showers
just during the evening. I was surprised to see mainly low-mod rainfall
figures for this morning in this district, though the Alstonville reading
is missing of course!
NORTHERN RIVERS:
Ballina 11 Ballina Ap 11 Cape Byron 14 Casino 1
Casino Ap AWS 2 Evans Head AWS 15 Grafton 0.4 Lismore 10
Mullumbimby 13 Murwillumbah 5 Nimbin 24
MID-NORTH COAST:
Bellbrook 2 Bellingen 28 Bulahdelah 2 Coffs Harbour 53
Comboyne 18 Dorrigo 25 Forster 0.8 Gloucester 2 Kempsey 3
Laurieton 9 Lorne 20 Macksville 22 Mt Seaview 9
Nambucca Heads 47 Port Macquarie 7 Pt Macquarie AWS 9
Smoky Cape 17 Taree 1 Taree AP AWS 2 Wauchope 8
regards, Michael.
At 17:32 06/04/2000 +1000, you wrote:
>At last some heavy rain near Coffs. Been constant all day and the odd patch
>of green on the radar is quite torrential, not Darwin torrential though!
>Around 60mm today and still continuing. I can't tell from the radar how far
>south it extends. Is it raining at Port, anyone? There seems to be a fair
>bit of showery weather extending north and the swirl below the storm belt in
>SE Qld looks interesting!
>
>Peter
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
==================================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
Wollongbar NSW 2477 http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Secretary ASWA Inc. http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
==================================================================
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
007
X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.18]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Archive Update...
Date: Fri, 07 Apr 2000 13:25:28 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi every1,
Just a note to inform y'all that the March Synoptic Archive is up on my
site...
http://www3.50megs.com/wycheproof
Cheers,
Kevin from sunny Wycheproof.
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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008
X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.18]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Global Stratospheric/Tropospheric Temperatures...
Date: Fri, 07 Apr 2000 13:41:15 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi every1,
A few months back the increase/decrease in global tropospheric and
stratospheric tmeperatures was much debated...
Just found a site related to it (probably old hat to those in the know) and
an eye-opener for me...
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/overview/microwave.html
Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
______________________________________________________
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009
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Vaughan's dissappearing act
Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 13:59:43 +1000
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Hi All,
In going back over yesterday's warnings, it seems that TC Vaughan dissipated
from a 970hPa Cat 3 to a mere tropical low in 6 to 12 hours, while over a
warm ocean and despite forecasts of intensification... This would seem to
be rather bizarre behaviour even for the Coral Sea. So maybe the cat 3
categorisation was seriously in error, which tends to be confirmed by the
radar at the time, or some other unforeseen factor was at work. Any clues
anyone?
Regards,
John W.
>snip
Hmm, I find it difficult to make out any organised circulation on the radar.
Sure there is lots of precip, but it all seems to be moving uniformly SW.
This seems to be very different from other TC's I have observed on radar
this season, where there have been distinct spiral bands and obvious
circulation. Am i missing something?
>snip
Vaughan looks like it could be seriously nasty. The worst-case
scenario for Cairns has always been a category-4 or -5 (realistically
4, given how rare 5's are in the Coral Sea) making landfall just to
the north at high tide. This is exactly the track that JTWC seems
to be putting it on, although landfall time is less certain.
High tides are at 10.22 tonight, 10.15 tomorrow morning and 11.10
tomorrow night. Tonight's high tide is also quite a high one even
under normal conditions.
Blair Trewin
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010
Date: Fri, 07 Apr 2000 15:02:57 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: decent rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Michael,
Alstonville had 58 mm in 24 hours to 9 am. There report came in at 10.49
which is after the rainlist has been prepared.
Cheers,
Don White
Michael Bath wrote:
>
> Hi all,
>
> The heavy falls hit my area from late afternoon and into the evening.
> Wollongbar received 57mm and McLeans Ridges 52mm, both sites on the
> Alstonville plateau west of Ballina. Most of the rain came in gusty showers
> just during the evening. I was surprised to see mainly low-mod rainfall
> figures for this morning in this district, though the Alstonville reading
> is missing of course!
>
> NORTHERN RIVERS:
> Ballina 11 Ballina Ap 11 Cape Byron 14 Casino 1
> Casino Ap AWS 2 Evans Head AWS 15 Grafton 0.4 Lismore 10
> Mullumbimby 13 Murwillumbah 5 Nimbin 24
>
> MID-NORTH COAST:
> Bellbrook 2 Bellingen 28 Bulahdelah 2 Coffs Harbour 53
> Comboyne 18 Dorrigo 25 Forster 0.8 Gloucester 2 Kempsey 3
> Laurieton 9 Lorne 20 Macksville 22 Mt Seaview 9
> Nambucca Heads 47 Port Macquarie 7 Pt Macquarie AWS 9
> Smoky Cape 17 Taree 1 Taree AP AWS 2 Wauchope 8
>
> regards, Michael.
>
> At 17:32 06/04/2000 +1000, you wrote:
> >At last some heavy rain near Coffs. Been constant all day and the odd patch
> >of green on the radar is quite torrential, not Darwin torrential though!
> >Around 60mm today and still continuing. I can't tell from the radar how far
> >south it extends. Is it raining at Port, anyone? There seems to be a fair
> >bit of showery weather extending north and the swirl below the storm belt in
> >SE Qld looks interesting!
> >
> >Peter
> >
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> ==================================================================
> Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
> Wollongbar NSW 2477 http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
> Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
> Secretary ASWA Inc. http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
> ==================================================================
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
011
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 15:34:21 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Vaughan's dissappearing act
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi John W and All.
>Hi All,
>
>In going back over yesterday's warnings, it seems that TC Vaughan dissipated
>from a 970hPa Cat 3 to a mere tropical low in 6 to 12 hours, while over a
>warm ocean and despite forecasts of intensification... This would seem to
>be rather bizarre behaviour even for the Coral Sea. So maybe the cat 3
>categorisation was seriously in error, which tends to be confirmed by the
>radar at the time, or some other unforeseen factor was at work. Any clues
>anyone?
>
>Regards,
>John W.
I think the BoM had it reasonably accurately defined, and yes it is rather
unusual behaviour.
In the 6 hourly GMS5 satpics from the BoM, you can see the sudden
intensification from 051132 through 051732 to 052332, and the equally
sudden disintegration from 052332 through 060532 to 061132. It is quite
visible from image to image, and shows up even more clearly when you apply
colours to the images to enhance the structural visibility and run them as
an animation.
The characteristic spiral banded structure often takes quite a while to
develop on a cyclone of moderate intensity, and if not present due to the
weakness of the TC prior to deepening, is unlikely to show if development
is fast enough, as it was in this case. The equally fast demise ensured it
did not have time to develop spiral banding.
As for why it should suddenly deepen then just as quickly disintegrate,
that is a good question.
Maybe someone from the BoM has some answers to this.
Regards,
Carl.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
012
From: "Dean Sgarbossa" [deansgar at alphalink.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: (fwd) Televison program on Australian weather
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 20:48:15 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.2106.4
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Laurier,
In case you may have missed tonights program (20:30 Monday) Savage
Planet, the first half-hour of the program was about lightning and hail
storms and it outlined the Sydney Hail Storm. Check out the rest of this
serious for it looks extremely interesting and informative. Hope this helps.
Dean AL Sgarbossa
-----Original Message-----
From: Laurier Williams [wbc at ozemail.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Monday, 3 April 2000 12:20
Subject: aus-wx: (fwd) Televison program on Australian weather
>Can anyone help with this request I've received? I do remember a
>(short?) series, but can't for the life of me remember its name or who
>broadcast it.
>
>Laurier
>
>On Sat, 01 Apr 2000 21:20:14 +1000, pcochra at attglobal.net wrote:
>
>>Dear Laurier,
>>
>>Do you know if a television program or series has been broadcast on
>>Australian weather?
>>
>>If so, can you tell me the name of it.
>>
>>Yours sincerely, PETER COCHRANE.
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
013
From: "MSC" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Vaughan's disappearing act
Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 16:20:59 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
The spectacular disintegration of TC Vaughan is just as interesting as any
spectacular deepening that may occur with any cyclone. We may ask ourselves
what causes sudden rapid explosive deepening in cyclones (hurricanes) and
use this as a clue as to what may cause sudden spectactular disintegrations
(do opposites attract??)
Clues to look for are:
inflow in middle layers of dry air
sea surface temperatures in the area
the alteration to the 600-250hPa flow pattern
or the intensification of another system maybe hundreds or thousands of kms
away (refer disturbance near Fiji yesterday & last night)
Whatever the cause, it almost appeared that it was a large thunderstorm
complex that stopped producing condensation and rained itself out. Again,
such an event is worth serious investigation.
Have a look at an animation at the following site:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalwv.html
and refer to the soundings yesterday (0Z & 12Z) of Cairns & ?Willis Island?
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/upperair/au.html
Regards,
Clyve Herbert
ASWA - Victoria
Footnote: Michael Thompson's description of a 'suppercell' as a type of
thunderstorm fits well here - we may have a 'suppercyclone' (ie: died before
supper)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi John W and All.
>Hi All,
>
>In going back over yesterday's warnings, it seems that TC Vaughan
dissipated
>from a 970hPa Cat 3 to a mere tropical low in 6 to 12 hours, while over a
>warm ocean and despite forecasts of intensification... This would seem to
>be rather bizarre behaviour even for the Coral Sea. So maybe the cat 3
>categorisation was seriously in error, which tends to be confirmed by the
>radar at the time, or some other unforeseen factor was at work. Any clues
>anyone?
>
>Regards,
>John W.
I think the BoM had it reasonably accurately defined, and yes it is rather
unusual behaviour.
In the 6 hourly GMS5 satpics from the BoM, you can see the sudden
intensification from 051132 through 051732 to 052332, and the equally
sudden disintegration from 052332 through 060532 to 061132. It is quite
visible from image to image, and shows up even more clearly when you apply
colours to the images to enhance the structural visibility and run them as
an animation.
The characteristic spiral banded structure often takes quite a while to
develop on a cyclone of moderate intensity, and if not present due to the
weakness of the TC prior to deepening, is unlikely to show if development
is fast enough, as it was in this case. The equally fast demise ensured it
did not have time to develop spiral banding.
As for why it should suddenly deepen then just as quickly disintegrate,
that is a good question.
Maybe someone from the BoM has some answers to this.
Regards,
Carl.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
014
X-Originating-IP: [203.134.2.92]
From: "Rune Peitersen" [runepeitersen at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 07 Apr 2000 17:08:09 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Gday all on the list,
Ive just joined this so I thought i'd introduce myself. My name is Rune
Peitersen, from Glenorie in nthwestern Sydney. Im 22, male and have had a
great fascination for storms since I was little. I found aswa when i was
searching the internet for storm sites and came upon
australiansevereweather.com. I had no idea there was all these people around
here that had the same interest as me. Subsequently i was invited to a nice
video night at daniel weatherheads house and met him, matt smith, matt piper
and jimmy deguara. All great guys with the same passion as me and it was
really good to see footage theyd taken of some of the same storms i had seen
in previous years. I joined ASWA about 7 months ago, and through laziness
and incompetance have only just made it onto here :), Look forward to
hearing from everybody and maybe seeing you around at meetings or on
chases,,, cheers, Rune
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
015
From: "Peter Tristram" [petertri at midcoast.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: decent rain
Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 17:24:47 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Hi all,
>
> The heavy falls hit my area from late afternoon and into the evening.
> Wollongbar received 57mm and McLeans Ridges 52mm, both sites on the
> Alstonville plateau west of Ballina. Most of the rain came in gusty
showers
> just during the evening. I was surprised to see mainly low-mod rainfall
> figures for this morning in this district, though the Alstonville reading
> is missing of course!
>
> NORTHERN RIVERS:
> Ballina 11 Ballina Ap 11 Cape Byron 14 Casino 1
> Casino Ap AWS 2 Evans Head AWS 15 Grafton 0.4 Lismore 10
> Mullumbimby 13 Murwillumbah 5 Nimbin 24
>
> MID-NORTH COAST:
> Bellbrook 2 Bellingen 28 Bulahdelah 2 Coffs Harbour 53
> Comboyne 18 Dorrigo 25 Forster 0.8 Gloucester 2 Kempsey 3
> Laurieton 9 Lorne 20 Macksville 22 Mt Seaview 9
> Nambucca Heads 47 Port Macquarie 7 Pt Macquarie AWS 9
> Smoky Cape 17 Taree 1 Taree AP AWS 2 Wauchope 8
>
>
> regards, Michael.
Repton ended up getting 91mm and a friend at Urunga recorded 135mm. The rain
stopped at about 9pm. There was quite a bit of local flooding about.
Peter
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
016
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 17:59:54 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Vaughan's disappearing act
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
Uploaded a false colour satpic animation of the demise of Vaughan at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Images/DemiseOfVaughan.gif showing 24 hrs
in 6 hr intervals from 051132 to 061132 UTC made from GMS 5 satpics
downloaded from the BoM.
It certainly shows both the rapid intensification and the equally rapid
disintegration of Vaughan.
I will leave it there for a few days in case anyone is interested to have a
look.
Regards,
Carl.
>The spectacular disintegration of TC Vaughan is just as interesting as any
>spectacular deepening that may occur with any cyclone. We may ask ourselves
>what causes sudden rapid explosive deepening in cyclones (hurricanes) and
>use this as a clue as to what may cause sudden spectactular disintegrations
>(do opposites attract??)
>
>Clues to look for are:
>inflow in middle layers of dry air
>sea surface temperatures in the area
>the alteration to the 600-250hPa flow pattern
>or the intensification of another system maybe hundreds or thousands of kms
>away (refer disturbance near Fiji yesterday & last night)
>
>Whatever the cause, it almost appeared that it was a large thunderstorm
>complex that stopped producing condensation and rained itself out. Again,
>such an event is worth serious investigation.
>
>Have a look at an animation at the following site:
>http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalwv.html
>
>and refer to the soundings yesterday (0Z & 12Z) of Cairns & ?Willis Island?
>http://www-das.uwyo.edu/upperair/au.html
>
>Regards,
>
>Clyve Herbert
>ASWA - Victoria
>
>Footnote: Michael Thompson's description of a 'suppercell' as a type of
>thunderstorm fits well here - we may have a 'suppercyclone' (ie: died before
>supper)
>
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
017
From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 17:56:59 +0930
Subject: aus-wx: Re:
X-mailer: Pegasus Mail for Win32 (v3.12a)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Welcome Rune,
Im sure that this email list will surprise you far more yet! (There are
alot of us crazies all over the country! )
Look forward to reading some more of your emails.
Paul.
On 7 Apr 00, at 17:08, Rune Peitersen wrote:
> Gday all on the list,
> Ive just joined this so I thought i'd introduce myself. My name is
> Rune
> Peitersen, from Glenorie in nthwestern Sydney. Im 22, male and have
> had a great fascination for storms since I was little. I found aswa
> when i was searching the internet for storm sites and came upon
> australiansevereweather.com. I had no idea there was all these people
> around here that had the same interest as me. Subsequently i was
> invited to a nice video night at daniel weatherheads house and met
> him, matt smith, matt piper and jimmy deguara. All great guys with the
> same passion as me and it was really good to see footage theyd taken
> of some of the same storms i had seen in previous years. I joined ASWA
> about 7 months ago, and through laziness and incompetance have only
> just made it onto here :), Look forward to hearing from everybody and
> maybe seeing you around at meetings or on chases,,, cheers, Rune
> ______________________________________________________ Get Your
> Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> -+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
> --
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
018
From: "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Re:
Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 18:30:26 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Rune,
Ya finally made it to the list?!?!?
WELCOME :)
Max
----- Original Message -----
From: Rune Peitersen [runepeitersen at hotmail.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Saturday, April 08, 2000 8:08 AM
> Gday all on the list,
> Ive just joined this so I thought i'd introduce myself. My name is
Rune
> Peitersen, from Glenorie in nthwestern Sydney. Im 22, male and have had a
> great fascination for storms since I was little. I found aswa when i was
> searching the internet for storm sites and came upon
> australiansevereweather.com. I had no idea there was all these people
around
> here that had the same interest as me. Subsequently i was invited to a
nice
> video night at daniel weatherheads house and met him, matt smith, matt
piper
> and jimmy deguara. All great guys with the same passion as me and it was
> really good to see footage theyd taken of some of the same storms i had
seen
> in previous years. I joined ASWA about 7 months ago, and through laziness
> and incompetance have only just made it onto here :), Look forward to
> hearing from everybody and maybe seeing you around at meetings or on
> chases,,, cheers, Rune
> ______________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
019
From: "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:
Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 08:50:18 +0100
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times are always GMT
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
----- Original Message -----
From: [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Friday, April 07, 2000 9:26 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Re:
> Welcome Rune,
>
> Im sure that this email list will surprise you far more yet! (There are
> alot of us crazies all over the country! )
Yeah, welcome aboard. There's a few crazies from around the world, too.
Les (UK)
------------------------------------------------------
Les Crossan
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W
UK Storm Chaser / Severe Weather Enthusiast
See the Wallsend StormCam at:
http://freespace.virgin.net/les.crossan/index.htm
Melbourne Storm Chasers (MSC) - Victoria, AUS
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) - AUS
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
http://www.torro.org.uk/
Email: les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM)
ICQ: 17296776
------------------------------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
020
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32)
Date: Fri, 07 Apr 2000 18:56:52 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Re:
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Heya Rune
About bloody time ! :)
fever, FEVER, FEVER!!!!!!!
hehehe sorry couldnt help myself (most NSW people will get that ;)
Matt Smith
>Gday all on the list,
> Ive just joined this so I thought i'd introduce myself. My name is
Rune
>Peitersen, from Glenorie in nthwestern Sydney. Im 22, male and have had
a
>great fascination for storms since I was little. I found aswa when i was
>searching the internet for storm sites and came upon
>australiansevereweather.com. I had no idea there was all these people
around
>here that had the same interest as me. Subsequently i was invited to a
nice
>video night at daniel weatherheads house and met him, matt smith, matt
piper
>and jimmy deguara. All great guys with the same passion as me and it was
>really good to see footage theyd taken of some of the same storms i had
seen
>in previous years. I joined ASWA about 7 months ago, and through
laziness
>and incompetance have only just made it onto here :), Look forward to
>hearing from everybody and maybe seeing you around at meetings or on
>chases,,, cheers, Rune
>______________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>
>
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> message.
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
021
From: "Keith & Jason" [kevans at kisser.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Hudah makes a turn for the worst :(
Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 17:00:22 +0800
Organization: Karratha AWS
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey all
Looks like TC Hudah hasnt made its full mark
yet.....JTWC has it re intensified and re intensifying further before making
landfall in 36hrs on the central Mozambique coast with 213km/h sustained
and gusts to 250km/h (almost cat 5).
How unlucky has this country been this year!!!
:((((((
This is the 3rd Cat 4/5 TC to make landfall on this
country this season i think ? :/
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/sh2100sa.jpg <==jtwc
sat pic (very nice eye)
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/sh2100.gif <==forecast
track
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTXS31 PGTW
070900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT
LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE
AVERAGE
---
WARNING
POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 18.7S6
38.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03
KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030
NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY
SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6
38.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12
HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 18.6S5 38.0E1
MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS -
015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02
KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.7S6 37.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS
135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS
OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE
OVER
WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03
KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 18.6S5 36.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS
140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS
OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110
NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER
WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04
KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 18.3S2 36.1E0
MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
DISSIPATING AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE
OVER
WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04
KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 17.5S3 34.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS
050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6
38.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210
NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS DRIFTED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT
03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 070530Z5
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 070358Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS
DEPICT A 20 NM ROUND EYE THAT HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS
STRONGER CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND SHOWS THAT THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTH AFRICAN COAST NEAR 35E8. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH THE WESTERN HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 16S7 30E3, AND THE EASTERN HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR. TC 21S IS DRIFTING WITHIN THE WEAKNESS, UNDER THE WEAK
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN HIGH. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO
BUILD WESTWARD, SOUTH OF TC 21S, AFTER THE 12-24
HOUR POINT AS THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 21S
SHOULD INTENSIFY WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
THE 36-HOUR
POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 22
FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3
Regards
Jason
Karratha W.A
022
From: "Ben Tichborne" [tich at netaccess.co.nz]
To: [aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #545
Date: Fri, 7 Apr 2000 23:56:19 +1200
Organization: Private
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> How's the weather over in NZ just now? Just wondering what effect that
> low off our East coast had over there?
Yes there has been some heavy rain about and west of the Southern Alps over
the past few days, but nothing too serious. I think only a fraction of the
rain forecast actually fell in Christchurch on Thursday (it was just
spitting rain), and it was dry today until a cool (but far from wintry)
southerly change brought some showers this evening, but I can see many stars
now and only scattered clouds.
BTW watch out for a subtropical (not a TC) low which may move to the
northeast of the North Island over the next few days. It may give some
strong east or southeast winds and heavy rain to the north and northeast of
the island, but then again it might not.
Ben Tichborne
Christchurch
NZ
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| Document: 000407.htm
Updated: 03 June 2000 |
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