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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Thursday, 13 April 2000 |
From Subject
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001 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Storm News
002 Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au] New SA images + Storm News
003 "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au] New SA images + Storm News
004 Andrew Boskell [a_boskell at yahoo.com] small funnel
005 "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au] Vaughan.. dissipation
006 Malcolm Ninnes [NinnesM at franklins.com.au] small funnel
007 Andrew Boskell [a_boskell at yahoo.com] small funnel
008 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Cyclone 24S has formed off WA
009 "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au] Fw: Query re SOI and snow
010 "MSC" [cadence at rubix.net.au] ASWA Victoria Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page
011 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Hail Stories/Blasts from the Past
012 Malcolm Ninnes [NinnesM at franklins.com.au] storm updates via SMS - off topic
013 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Hail Stories/Blasts from the Past
014 Mario Paul [stormtwist at yahoo.com] small funnel
015 "Lyle Pakula" [remote at leski.com.au] Re:
016 Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au] Storm News
017 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] New SA images + Storm News
018 "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au] New SA images + Storm News
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
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Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 00:22:45 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm News
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi
I echo Jimmys comments, a great job Anthony and others involved, a great
read, thoroughly enjoyed it, as I do with every Storm News. Keep up the
great work.
Matt
>Hi everyone,
>
>I must say that when I received Storm News, I was impressed by the whole
>package with logo. The Storm News newsletter was just as impressive with a
>great variety of articles.
>
>For those involved, a great job done!!!
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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002
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Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 07:38:20 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust [paisley at cobweb.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: New SA images + Storm News
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
A *few* small format 'teasers' of my last Sunday trip to the Barossa are at:
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2/WeatherWX.html
The 'real' images have been sent off to Andrew Wall and should appear on
the SA severe weather page in the not too distant future.
P.S. Could someone clear up excactly what edition Storm News seems to have
just been posted out to much aclaim? My last edition is the Sydney
Hailstorm one. Should I expect a new one in the mail??
Phil 'Paisley' Bagust
paisley at cobweb.com.au
http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2
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003
From: "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au]
To: "Aussie Weather \(E-mail\)" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 11:17:53 +1000
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>Hi,
>
>I have heard that the flares will also produce auroras as far north as
>Melbourne over the coming months. My worry is, how will this effect our
>weather or, more to the point, temperature (snowfalls).
>
>Any theories?
>
Lyle,
I wouldn't loose to much sleep over the impact of the solar activity on
local weather, as typically the output from the sun from peak to trough in
the dominant 11 year period range is only about 0.15% of total solar output
or, or about +1.5W/m2.
For interest, this compares with the current greenhouse signal of about
+2.5w/m2.
This is all really a bit of a bug bear of mine, in that there has been a
long history of people claiming the extremely small variations of the sun
(on 11 years scales)cause everything from hurricanes to El Nino. If the
atmosphere was really so sensitive to very small pushes, one would then have
to ask how possibly has life survived on earth for billions of years with
the massive changes imposed on the atmosphere by volcanos, asteroids etc.
Simple back of the envelope calculations show that if the atmosphere has no
thermal inertia or feedbacks this would change global average temperatures
by about 0.5C, but the oceans/land provide an extremely powerful dampening
mechanism, meaning that any signal is more likely to be in the 0.1 to 0.2C
range. If you look very closely at global temperature series, it is possible
to detect this relatively small effect (for example see
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/ ), and indeed there is the suggestion that
some of the Northern Hemispheric cooling towards the end of the 1970 may
have reflected small changes in the solar output. However, at specific
locations the solar output is overwhelmingly sampled by weather and climate
noise - I would be much more worried about the present La Nina, and the
ongoing drought when it comes to the coming snow seasons..
Cheers,
David.
Dr David Jones
Climate Analysis Section
National Climate Centre
Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
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004
Date: Wed, 12 Apr 2000 17:18:13 -0700 (PDT)
From: Andrew Boskell [a_boskell at yahoo.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: small funnel
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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G'day Malcolm,
COOL! Was the funnel a thin rope shape or a fat
stunted shape? Any thunder around? This goes to prove
that one should always keep ones eyes open...ya just
never know!
Andrew.
--- Malcolm Ninnes wrote:
> Hi all,
>
> Just saw a small funnel cloud from Strathfield
> (NSW), looking NW at 1245
> today. It persisted for approximately 45-60
> seconds, eventually roping out
> and becoming drawn into the main cloud base.
> Rotation was evident, even
> from the distance at which I was viewing. What are
> the odds, I was having
> lunch in a park that I haven't been to for months,
> and BINGO. Pity I didn't
> have my camera with me.
>
> Did anyone else see anything around this time? The
> chances are extremely
> slim.....
>
>
> Malcolm Ninnes
> Unix Systems Admin / Operations Support
> National Technical Services - Franklins Ltd
> Ph. (02) 9722-1862
> ninnesm at franklins.com.au
>
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
=====
Andrew Boskell
"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"
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005
From: "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au]
To: "Aussie Weather \(E-mail\)" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Vaughan.. dissipation
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 11:53:46 +1000
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>In the 6 hourly GMS5 satpics from the BoM, you can see the sudden
>intensification from 051132 through 051732 to 052332, and the equally
>sudden disintegration from 052332 through 060532 to 061132. It is quite
>visible from image to image, and shows up even more clearly when you apply
>colours to the images to enhance the structural visibility and run them as
>an animation.
>The characteristic spiral banded structure often takes quite a while to
>develop on a cyclone of moderate intensity, and if not present due to the
>weakness of the TC prior to deepening, is unlikely to show if development
>is fast enough, as it was in this case. The equally fast demise ensured it
>did not have time to develop spiral banding.
>
>As for why it should suddenly deepen then just as quickly disintegrate,
>that is a good question.
>
>Maybe someone from the BoM has some answers to this.
My best guess is that the approaching thermal trough which was moving up the
Queensland coast at the time, caused the cyclones environment to suddenly
become unfavourable. The switching off of convection between about 7am and
midday was quite extraordinary, and was matched by a similar dissipation of
rainfall on the radar.
I can only guess that the trough introduced dry air into the system, and
resulted in increased wind shear. My understanding is that the cyclone was
believed to be a midget, in a rather broad cyclonic area, and this may have
made it vulnerable to rapid weakening?
Just the two cent opinion of a non-tropical inhabitant!
David
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006
From: Malcolm Ninnes [NinnesM at franklins.com.au]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: small funnel
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 13:09:41 +1000
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Hey Andrew,
No thunder was heard, and the funnel was quite thin towards the bottom, the
rope-like structure twisting in direction as it got lower and lower. It
actually looked like it extended down a fair distance, although it never
reached more than 25% in distance between the cloud base and the ground -
not visible by me anyway. I was pretty amazed and happy to see it - it made
my day :)
Mario O. was at Atarmon around the same time and mentioned seeing a lowering
in the distance out west, but I'm not sure if it was the same thing or not.
Want to share any more details Mario? :)
Mal.
-----Original Message-----
From: Andrew Boskell [mailto:a_boskell at yahoo.com]
Sent: Thursday, 13 April 2000 10:18
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: small funnel
G'day Malcolm,
COOL! Was the funnel a thin rope shape or a fat
stunted shape? Any thunder around? This goes to prove
that one should always keep ones eyes open...ya just
never know!
Andrew.
--- Malcolm Ninnes wrote:
> Hi all,
>
> Just saw a small funnel cloud from Strathfield
> (NSW), looking NW at 1245
> today. It persisted for approximately 45-60
> seconds, eventually roping out
> and becoming drawn into the main cloud base.
> Rotation was evident, even
> from the distance at which I was viewing. What are
> the odds, I was having
> lunch in a park that I haven't been to for months,
> and BINGO. Pity I didn't
> have my camera with me.
>
> Did anyone else see anything around this time? The
> chances are extremely
> slim.....
>
>
> Malcolm Ninnes
> Unix Systems Admin / Operations Support
> National Technical Services - Franklins Ltd
> Ph. (02) 9722-1862
> ninnesm at franklins.com.au
>
>
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> message.
>
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
=====
Andrew Boskell
"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"
__________________________________________________
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007
Date: Wed, 12 Apr 2000 22:30:06 -0700 (PDT)
From: Andrew Boskell [a_boskell at yahoo.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: small funnel
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Malcolm,
I'm actually in Tassie!:-( But I'm interested in
hearing about what you've seen. There is nothing like
spotting a funnel! It can sometimes take a few seconds
to register what your looking at. Is this the first
time you have seen a funnel or have you seen them
before? I haven't seen one for nearly 10 years! That's
the problem with working indoors....actually that's
the problem with working.
Thanks for the details,
Regards,
Andrew.
--- Malcolm Ninnes wrote:
> Hey Andrew,
>
> No thunder was heard, and the funnel was quite thin
> towards the bottom, the
> rope-like structure twisting in direction as it got
> lower and lower. It
> actually looked like it extended down a fair
> distance, although it never
> reached more than 25% in distance between the cloud
> base and the ground -
> not visible by me anyway. I was pretty amazed and
> happy to see it - it made
> my day :)
>
> Mario O. was at Atarmon around the same time and
> mentioned seeing a lowering
> in the distance out west, but I'm not sure if it was
> the same thing or not.
> Want to share any more details Mario? :)
>
> Mal.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Andrew Boskell [mailto:a_boskell at yahoo.com]
> Sent: Thursday, 13 April 2000 10:18
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: small funnel
>
>
> G'day Malcolm,
>
> COOL! Was the funnel a thin rope shape or a fat
> stunted shape? Any thunder around? This goes to
> prove
> that one should always keep ones eyes open...ya just
> never know!
>
> Andrew.
>
> --- Malcolm Ninnes wrote:
> > Hi all,
> >
> > Just saw a small funnel cloud from Strathfield
> > (NSW), looking NW at 1245
> > today. It persisted for approximately 45-60
> > seconds, eventually roping out
> > and becoming drawn into the main cloud base.
> > Rotation was evident, even
> > from the distance at which I was viewing. What are
> > the odds, I was having
> > lunch in a park that I haven't been to for months,
> > and BINGO. Pity I didn't
> > have my camera with me.
> >
> > Did anyone else see anything around this time? The
> > chances are extremely
> > slim.....
> >
> >
> > Malcolm Ninnes
> > Unix Systems Admin / Operations Support
> > National Technical Services - Franklins Ltd
> > Ph. (02) 9722-1862
> > ninnesm at franklins.com.au
> >
> >
>
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> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather
> > your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> >
> >
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
> =====
> Andrew Boskell
>
> "Some people are weather wise, others are
> otherwise!"
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites.
> http://invites.yahoo.com
>
>
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>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
=====
Andrew Boskell
"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"
__________________________________________________
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008
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 15:45:45 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Cyclone 24S has formed off WA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
Cyclone 24S has formed off WA.
JTWC warning below.
Regards,
Carl.
808
WTXS31 PGTW 130300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 13.8S2 114.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 114.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 14.1S6 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 14.0S5 109.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 13.4S8 106.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 12.8S1 103.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 113.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S HAS FORMED 375 NM SOUTHEAST OF JAVA AND
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE.
THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE INDICATIVE OF
IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK INITIALLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS SOUTH. AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD. TC 24S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 12 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 121721Z APR 00
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 121730). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4) AND 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2).//
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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009
From: "W.A. (Bill) Webb" [billwebb at tpgi.com.au]
To: "Wx Aus" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Fw: Query re SOI and snow
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 15:45:45 +1000
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Hi Lindsay and all,
Have posted below to list as earlier correspondence went to all.
Hope it helps Lindsay, and is of interest to all. The comment on the
predicted position of the sub-tropical ridge later this year may promote
some discussion.
See ya
Bill
Proserpine
----- Original Message -----
From: [Col.Paull at dnr.qld.gov.au]
To: [billwebb at tpgi.com.au]
Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 1:16 PM
Subject: RE: Query re SOI and snow
> Hi Bill,
>
> My understanding is that snow-falls in the Australian Alps tend to be
above
> average during La Nina events, and below average during El Nino events.
The
> current La Nina pattern has weakened considerably over recent months.
>
> The persistent 'cool' sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies are slowly
> contracting, indicating that the La Ni�a may be receding. This is also
> hinted at by other features such as the slight weakening of the strong
> easterly winds in the central Pacific Ocean associated with the La Ni�a.
>
> Forecasts from most experimental general circulation models are currently
> suggesting that by mid-year the La Ni�a will have subsided and neutral
> conditions dominate. However, three climate models indicate the possible
> development of an El Nino, and sub-surface sea temperatures to the east of
> Australia are now significantly warmer than normal, in classic 'pre-El
Nino'
> mode. In addition, some early research work suggests the sub-tropical
ridge
> may again be further north than normal this winter which may tend to
reduce
> winter rainfall from the Goondiwindi district through to the Central
> Highlands. As these indicators provide some cause for concern, regular
> monitoring of them and the SOI during the autumn 'predictability gap' is
> recommended.
>
> I hope your workshops go well.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Col Paull
> Senior Extension Officer (Climate Risk) Phone:
> (07)3896 9587
> Queensland Centre for Climate Applications Ph A/H:
(07)3345
> 6921
> Gate 4, 80 Meiers Road
> Fax: (07)3896 9843
> Indooroopilly Qld 4068
> International: +61-7
> Email: colin.paull at dnr.qld.gov.au
> URL: http://www.dnr.qld.gov.au/longpdk
>
> ----------
> From: W.A. (Bill) Webb [SMTP:billwebb at tpgi.com.au]
> Sent: Tuesday, 11 April 2000 15:44
> To: Col Paull
> Subject: Query re SOI and snow
>
> Hello Col,
>
> I sent the following to Roger Stone some time ago, and it was
> returned to me
> as address unknown. Searching through various climate related
> paraphenalia,
> I came across your card (probably included in literature associated
> with
> Managing for Climate workshops
>big snip.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
010
From: "MSC" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 16:20:32 +1000
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The ASWA Victoria Forecast Outlook, Discussion & report page has really
taken off this month!!!
Updates are occurring once, twice and three times a day & obs are also
starting to come in.....makes good daily reading (as well as practice).
Keep up the good work - and anyone at all is welcome to join in at....
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/apr2000.htm
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence
---------------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
011
Date: Wed, 12 Apr 2000 23:06:04 -0700
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hail Stories/Blasts from the Past
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Thanks Jimmy and others, some good stuff there.
I've also been watching that low track east, we might get something out
of it up here in the Blue Mountains, depends what that high does,
preceding it, I guess. Probably more wind than anything else at this
stage.
Lindsay P.
Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
> To answer the question, the best bet in regards to hailstorms would have
> been November 1979. The Bankstown area (hailstorm alley) had quite a few
> severe hailstorms at that time.
>
> Begin Date/Time Latitude Longitude Nearest Town
> Event 1 12 Nov 1979 2:00 33.67 151.00 NW & N SUBURBS
> Event 2 12 Nov 1979 6:10 31.12 150.90 TAMWORTH
> Event 3 12 Nov 1979 7:10 31.08 150.93 TAMWORTH
> Event 4 15 Nov 1979 5:15 33.88 151.22 BANKSTWON AIRPORT
> Event 5 15 Nov 1979 10:00 34.00 151.00 SW & S SUBURBS
> Event 6 23 Nov 1979 7:45 34.00 151.00 SW & S SUBURBS
> Event 7 23 Nov 1979 14:00 33.88 151.22 SYDNEY
> Event 8 25 Nov 1979 19:00 34.00 151.00 SW & S SUBURBS
>
> Hail Max Wind (kts) Precipitaion Amount
> (mm) Precipitation Period (mins) Event Comments
> Event 1 5.00 5 CM HAIL,FF NEW NORTH ROCKS RD
> UNDER 1 M WATER,K MART FLD AFTER ROOF COLLAPSED,LASTED 15 MINS,UPROOTED
> TREES flash flood
> Event 2 48.00 48 kt gust at Tamworth at 0610 UTC
> on 12/11/1979.
> Event 3 48.00 Bureau Study (WINDEX)
> Event 4 50.00 THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED 50 KNOTS
> GUST, THIS IS ABOUT 5 HOURS EARLIER THAN EVENT ON SAME DAY
> Event 5 71.00 GUST 71 KT AT 2118,BUILDINGS
> UNROOFED,TREES DOWN,00'S HOMES DAMAGED,$ MILLIONS DAMAGE
> Event 6 52.00 GUST 52 KNOTS AT BANKSTOWN WITH 26
> MM/25 MINS
> Event 7 53.00 GUST 53 KNOTS
> Event 8 4.40 61.00 GUST 61 KNOTS, GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL,
> $1 MILLION DAM
>
> I hope this information helps. It is information from the Bureau of
> Meteorology storm database in Sydney.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 05:08 12/04/00 -0700, you wrote:
> >Reading Jimmy Deguara's story on the Sydney hail storm of 1983 in Storm
> >News - Winter edition, reminded me of a fantastic hail storm we had in
> >the late seventies.
> >
> >I can't remember the year, although I know I was in high school at the
> >time, (Maybe 1978 or 1979) and it hailed VERY heavily, such that we made
> >snow men in the school grounds that morning (I think it was morning) and
> >I remember seeing a guy removing hail from his guttering on the way home
> >that day. I also climbed onto our roof and found hail still there the
> >day after the storm! Maybe it was during winter, I can't recall.
> >
> >The park near our place in "Bevo" (Beverly Hills) was inches deep with
> >hail and it really did look like a snow scene. The hail was probably
> >five to ten cent piece size, going on memory, with maybe the odd bigger
> >stone.
> >
> >Anyway, Jimmy's story reminded me of my own highschool hail storm
> >experience. poufflkjsldjdljfdusiuf, oops sorry, my Jack Russell just
> >jumped onto my lap and the keyboard!
> >
> >Blair, Don or others, any way of pin pointing the year/month etc, of
> >that storm?
> >Do others recall it? It was the best I have ever seen.
> >
> >
> >Lindsay Pearce
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
012
From: Malcolm Ninnes [NinnesM at franklins.com.au]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: storm updates via SMS - off topic
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 16:33:49 +1000
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2448.0)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Slightly off topic, but some people might be interested in knowing that
Optus is now providing free SMS messages until May 31st. Apparently once
you send more than 300 per month though, they start investigating (due to
their 'Fair Go' policy).
Perhaps this might provide some people with the ability to send out radar
updates to chasers in the field without greatly inflating their mobile bills
:)
Thanks to Max King for bringing this to my attention.
Malcolm Ninnes
Unix Systems Admin / Operations Support
National Technical Services - Franklins Ltd
Ph. (02) 9722-1862
ninnesm at franklins.com.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
013
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32)
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 17:05:44 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hail Stories/Blasts from the Past
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Cell went pink on radar up your way Lindsay at around 4pm
I can see it now (decayed) from Burwood
Hopefully a sign of things to come maybe..
Matt
>Thanks Jimmy and others, some good stuff there.
>
>I've also been watching that low track east, we might get something out
>of it up here in the Blue Mountains, depends what that high does,
>preceding it, I guess. Probably more wind than anything else at this
>stage.
>
>Lindsay P.
>
>Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>>
>> To answer the question, the best bet in regards to hailstorms would have
>> been November 1979. The Bankstown area (hailstorm alley) had quite a few
>> severe hailstorms at that time.
>>
>> Begin Date/Time Latitude Longitude Nearest
Town
>> Event 1 12 Nov 1979 2:00 33.67 151.00 NW & N SUBURBS
>> Event 2 12 Nov 1979 6:10 31.12 150.90 TAMWORTH
>> Event 3 12 Nov 1979 7:10 31.08 150.93 TAMWORTH
>> Event 4 15 Nov 1979 5:15 33.88 151.22 BANKSTWON AIRPORT
>> Event 5 15 Nov 1979 10:00 34.00 151.00 SW & S SUBURBS
>> Event 6 23 Nov 1979 7:45 34.00 151.00 SW & S SUBURBS
>> Event 7 23 Nov 1979 14:00 33.88 151.22 SYDNEY
>> Event 8 25 Nov 1979 19:00 34.00 151.00 SW & S SUBURBS
>>
>> Hail Max Wind (kts) Precipitaion Amount
>> (mm) Precipitation Period (mins) Event Comments
>> Event 1 5.00 5 CM HAIL,FF NEW NORTH ROCKS RD
>> UNDER 1 M WATER,K MART FLD AFTER ROOF COLLAPSED,LASTED 15 MINS,UPROOTED
>> TREES flash flood
>> Event 2 48.00 48 kt gust at Tamworth at 0610 UTC
>> on 12/11/1979.
>> Event 3 48.00 Bureau Study (WINDEX)
>> Event 4 50.00 THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED 50 KNOTS
>> GUST, THIS IS ABOUT 5 HOURS EARLIER THAN EVENT ON SAME DAY
>> Event 5 71.00 GUST 71 KT AT 2118,BUILDINGS
>> UNROOFED,TREES DOWN,00'S HOMES DAMAGED,$ MILLIONS DAMAGE
>> Event 6 52.00 GUST 52 KNOTS AT BANKSTOWN WITH 26
>> MM/25 MINS
>> Event 7 53.00 GUST 53 KNOTS
>> Event 8 4.40 61.00 GUST 61 KNOTS, GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL,
>> $1 MILLION DAM
>>
>> I hope this information helps. It is information from the Bureau of
>> Meteorology storm database in Sydney.
>>
>> Jimmy Deguara
>>
>> At 05:08 12/04/00 -0700, you wrote:
>> >Reading Jimmy Deguara's story on the Sydney hail storm of 1983 in Storm
>> >News - Winter edition, reminded me of a fantastic hail storm we had in
>> >the late seventies.
>> >
>> >I can't remember the year, although I know I was in high school at the
>> >time, (Maybe 1978 or 1979) and it hailed VERY heavily, such that we made
>> >snow men in the school grounds that morning (I think it was morning) and
>> >I remember seeing a guy removing hail from his guttering on the way home
>> >that day. I also climbed onto our roof and found hail still there the
>> >day after the storm! Maybe it was during winter, I can't recall.
>> >
>> >The park near our place in "Bevo" (Beverly Hills) was inches deep with
>> >hail and it really did look like a snow scene. The hail was probably
>> >five to ten cent piece size, going on memory, with maybe the odd bigger
>> >stone.
>> >
>> >Anyway, Jimmy's story reminded me of my own highschool hail storm
>> >experience. poufflkjsldjdljfdusiuf, oops sorry, my Jack Russell just
>> >jumped onto my lap and the keyboard!
>> >
>> >Blair, Don or others, any way of pin pointing the year/month etc, of
>> >that storm?
>> >Do others recall it? It was the best I have ever seen.
>> >
>> >
>> >Lindsay Pearce
>> >
>> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
>> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>> > message.
>> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>
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>> message.
>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
014
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 01:06:12 -0700 (PDT)
From: Mario Paul [stormtwist at yahoo.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: small funnel
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hi all! yes i was having lunch at artarmon around
12.30ish and saw a suspicious lowering to my WNW.It
was
too far away to see clearly but i was looking at what
i thought was scud and thinking to myself,hmmmm.....
is that scud or a funnel cloud? I dismissed it due to
my fantastic imagination! Still,there was some
interesting CU that day.I didn't think about it
anymore
until i read mal's email later that night.OOPS...knew
I
should've brought my camera to work! :(
Thought for the day:It doesn't matter what temperature
a room is, it's always room temperature.
--- Andrew Boskell wrote:
> Malcolm,
>
> I'm actually in Tassie!:-( But I'm interested in
> hearing about what you've seen. There is nothing
> like
> spotting a funnel! It can sometimes take a few
> seconds
> to register what your looking at. Is this the first
> time you have seen a funnel or have you seen them
> before? I haven't seen one for nearly 10 years!
> That's
> the problem with working indoors....actually that's
> the problem with working.
>
> Thanks for the details,
> Regards,
> Andrew.
> --- Malcolm Ninnes wrote:
> > Hey Andrew,
> >
> > No thunder was heard, and the funnel was quite
> thin
> > towards the bottom, the
> > rope-like structure twisting in direction as it
> got
> > lower and lower. It
> > actually looked like it extended down a fair
> > distance, although it never
> > reached more than 25% in distance between the
> cloud
> > base and the ground -
> > not visible by me anyway. I was pretty amazed and
> > happy to see it - it made
> > my day :)
> >
> > Mario O. was at Atarmon around the same time and
> > mentioned seeing a lowering
> > in the distance out west, but I'm not sure if it
> was
> > the same thing or not.
> > Want to share any more details Mario? :)
> >
> > Mal.
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Andrew Boskell [mailto:a_boskell at yahoo.com]
> > Sent: Thursday, 13 April 2000 10:18
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: small funnel
> >
> >
> > G'day Malcolm,
> >
> > COOL! Was the funnel a thin rope shape or a fat
> > stunted shape? Any thunder around? This goes to
> > prove
> > that one should always keep ones eyes open...ya
> just
> > never know!
> >
> > Andrew.
> >
> > --- Malcolm Ninnes
> wrote:
> > > Hi all,
> > >
> > > Just saw a small funnel cloud from Strathfield
> > > (NSW), looking NW at 1245
> > > today. It persisted for approximately 45-60
> > > seconds, eventually roping out
> > > and becoming drawn into the main cloud base.
> > > Rotation was evident, even
> > > from the distance at which I was viewing. What
> are
> > > the odds, I was having
> > > lunch in a park that I haven't been to for
> months,
> > > and BINGO. Pity I didn't
> > > have my camera with me.
> > >
> > > Did anyone else see anything around this time?
> The
> > > chances are extremely
> > > slim.....
> > >
> > >
> > > Malcolm Ninnes
> > > Unix Systems Admin / Operations Support
> > > National Technical Services - Franklins Ltd
> > > Ph. (02) 9722-1862
> > > ninnesm at franklins.com.au
> > >
> > >
> >
>
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> > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather
> > > your_email_address" in the body of your
> > > message.
> > >
> > >
> >
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> > =====
> > Andrew Boskell
> >
> > "Some people are weather wise, others are
> > otherwise!"
> >
> > __________________________________________________
> > Do You Yahoo!?
> > Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites.
> > http://invites.yahoo.com
> >
> >
>
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> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather
> > your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> >
> >
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
>
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> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather
> > your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> >
> >
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
> =====
> Andrew Boskell
>
> "Some people are weather wise, others are
> otherwise!"
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites.
> http://invites.yahoo.com
>
>
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>
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites.
http://invites.yahoo.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
015
From: "Lyle Pakula" [remote at leski.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Re:
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 18:22:36 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi David,
I see your point that there are greater effects and if this all had an
effect at all, how could we be here. I myself am not sure on all this but a
simple calculation of Solar Loading based on the angle of incidence
approximation has some startling results.
If there is a 0.075% increase in the solar loading then, if you were at
40deg Lattitutde, the increase in loading would equal the normal loading at
35deg. More startling is that at ~20deg, it would have the same loading as
at the equator.
Of course, this takes on nothing more than solar loading - as you stated,
there are many more influences and my guess would be that snowfalls would
not be significantly effected. I say this because the cold air is advected
from the poles, and by this simple model, a significant change in loading
only takes hold at about 45 deg, for a 0.075% increase in loading.
Of more concern is snow preservation, which is the key to a good season. We
usually only get a few good falls and heaps of sunny days. Thats by my last
3 years experinece - maybe I should stop here :) Hence, by this
calculation, the Oz ski fields would go from ~37deg to ~31deg, or Northern
NSW. This can't be a good thing.
I should not I have no idea what the actual % fluctuation would be for this
solar flare. Dropping this number 1.02% means that the loading effect would
not take hold significantly until about ~20deg.
Thanks for the informative reply,
Lyle
----- Original Message -----
From: Dr David Jones [d.jones at bom.gov.au]
To: Aussie Weather (E-mail) [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 11:17 AM
> >Hi,
> >
> >I have heard that the flares will also produce auroras as far north as
> >Melbourne over the coming months. My worry is, how will this effect our
> >weather or, more to the point, temperature (snowfalls).
> >
> >Any theories?
> >
>
> Lyle,
>
> I wouldn't loose to much sleep over the impact of the solar activity on
> local weather, as typically the output from the sun from peak to trough in
> the dominant 11 year period range is only about 0.15% of total solar
output
> or, or about +1.5W/m2.
> For interest, this compares with the current greenhouse signal of about
> +2.5w/m2.
>
> This is all really a bit of a bug bear of mine, in that there has been a
> long history of people claiming the extremely small variations of the sun
> (on 11 years scales)cause everything from hurricanes to El Nino. If the
> atmosphere was really so sensitive to very small pushes, one would then
have
> to ask how possibly has life survived on earth for billions of years with
> the massive changes imposed on the atmosphere by volcanos, asteroids etc.
>
> Simple back of the envelope calculations show that if the atmosphere has
no
> thermal inertia or feedbacks this would change global average temperatures
> by about 0.5C, but the oceans/land provide an extremely powerful dampening
> mechanism, meaning that any signal is more likely to be in the 0.1 to 0.2C
> range. If you look very closely at global temperature series, it is
possible
> to detect this relatively small effect (for example see
> http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/ ), and indeed there is the suggestion that
> some of the Northern Hemispheric cooling towards the end of the 1970 may
> have reflected small changes in the solar output. However, at specific
> locations the solar output is overwhelmingly sampled by weather and
climate
> noise - I would be much more worried about the present La Nina, and the
> ongoing drought when it comes to the coming snow seasons..
>
>
> Cheers,
>
> David.
>
>
> Dr David Jones
>
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
016
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 19:30:13 +1000
From: Keith Barnett [weather at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm News
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hear, hear to that, Jimmy. The quality is excellent and the articles
well worth reading and re-reading later.
Congratulations to all involved.
Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
> Hi everyone,
>
> I must say that when I received Storm News, I was impressed by the whole
> package with logo. The Storm News newsletter was just as impressive with a
> great variety of articles.
>
> For those involved, a great job done!!!
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
017
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 20:01:00 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: New SA images + Storm News
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Phil,
RE Storm News - It was mailed out in Sydney on Tuesday - so Sydney
siders received there's Wednesday, Melbournians and Brisbanites and
major regional centres of NSW should have received there's today. The
rest of Australia will get it between 3-5 days, depending on AU Post.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
018
From: "Max King" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: New SA images + Storm News
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 20:32:43 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I didn't :(
Max
----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 8:01 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: New SA images + Storm News
> Hi Phil,
>
> RE Storm News - It was mailed out in Sydney on Tuesday - so Sydney
> siders received there's Wednesday, Melbournians and Brisbanites and
> major regional centres of NSW should have received there's today. The
> rest of Australia will get it between 3-5 days, depending on AU Post.
>
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> 14 Kinsella St
> Belmont, Brisbane
> QLD, 4153
> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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| Document: 000413.htm
Updated: 03 June 2000 |
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