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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Monday, 17 April 2000 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 Matthew Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Hunter Storms Yesterday
002 "tony middleton" [anvil_industries at hotmail.co intro time
003 Matthew Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Sydney April 14 DOPPER RADAR!!!
004 "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au] global warming.
005 Andrew Boskell [a_boskell at yahoo.com] Follow up on the Devonport storm
006 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] intro time
007 Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au] Interesting day in Sydney (Matthew Pearce, not Don)
008 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] Sydney April 14 DOPPER RADAR!!!
009 "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] global warming.
010 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Interesting day in Sydney (Matthew Pearce, not Don)
011 Matthew Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] A Stormy Question
012 Matthew Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] here is the radar loop
013 "Lyle Pakula" [remote at leski.com.au] Storm Chase around Melbourne
014 "Lyle Pakula" [remote at leski.com.au] "Quiet Thunder"
015 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC Rosita developing N of Port Hedland?
016 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] A Stormy Question
017 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] A Stormy Question
018 steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au] this arvos pics
019 Michael Bath [lismorer at bigpond.com] 1630 storm evans head
020 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Hail loss model for Sydney with an experimental ENSO
021 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC 27S (Rosita?) N of Port Hedland.
022 "McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au] Melbourne's Storms on Sunday
023 "Keith & Jason" [kevans at kisser.net.au] TC Rosita
024 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Interesting day in Sydney (Matthew Pearce, not Don)
025 Mark Dwyer [mjd at iinet.net.au] TC Rosita has been named from the BoM
026 "Keith & Jason" [kevans at kisser.net.au] TC Rosita just named by the BoM
027 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] here is the radar loop
028 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) this arvos pics
029 MSC [cadence at rubix.net.au] Melbourne's Storms & report for the 14th April
030 "Zac" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au] Melbourne's Storms & report for the 14th April
031 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) Latest MRF worth a look
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001
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Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 01:26:52 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matthew Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Hunter Storms Yesterday
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For those that missed it, the Hunter copped it again with a nice storm...
Daniel saved the radar and the loop is up here :
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/Daniel/2000/16-04-00loop.gif
Who wants to move to Newcastle with me ? good base for chasing, and not far
from lots of action hehehe.. one day maybe :)
Matt Smith
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002
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From: "tony middleton" [anvil_industries at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: intro time
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 07:28:17 EST
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hello everyone,
I am pretty much new to the list and I thought it was about time i
introduced myself to everyone.I am Tony Middleton and i live near Wonthaggi
in South Gippsland (Vic.),we have a beautiful coast down here.I enjoy
photography and basically most things to do with nature and the weather (of
course).if you want to see some of my work go to my website below.I also
love to travel,which i hope to do a lot more of in the future.
Well it was a great day yesterday with several nice cells about,if anyone
archived/saved radar Melbourne local loops of the afternoon(sun.16) please
send them to me,it would be greatly appreciated.
thanks.
LATER......
T.Middleton.
http://www.angelfire.com/journal/anvilindustries/
______________________________________________________
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003
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Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 09:17:21 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matthew Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney April 14 DOPPER RADAR!!!
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Morning everyone
Nice little treat here for everyone, NSSL/NOAA (National Severe Storms
Laberatory) in America have put up Doppler Radar for the April 14 Storm
!!!
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/swat/Cases/990414/case.html
A hook echo is visable.
A huge thanks to Jane from MSC for the link, I didnt know it existed!
Would it have been so hard for the BoM to put something like this
together?
I guess we should consider ourselves lucky that an american company puts
some of our southern hemisphere stuff up on the web available freely for
everyone, unlike here...
Matthew Smith
-----Sydney Storm Chasers -----
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
----Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA )----
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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004
From: "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au]
To: "Aussie Weather \(E-mail\)" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: global warming.
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 10:44:36 +1000
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>I believe that global warming's a myth - having been through one ice age
>prediction. It'll sort itself out - Gaia will take care of that.
Les, there is no shortage of irony in this statement, in that you are
willing to put your faith in an unproven "feel good" theory - dare I say new
age religion?, and yet ignore an irrefutable physically phenomenon. The
existence of a greenhouse effect is proved daily by the fact that the
earth's surface is some 33 degrees warmer than a simple radiative balance
requires.
There can be no doubt that an enhanced greenhouse effect will tend to
increase the surface temperature - the theory on this dates back well over a
century. The question is then will the earth/atmosphere enhance or dampen
the warming. Current conventional thinking is that the ice albedo and water
vapour feedbacks will tend to enhance the warming - by about a factor of
two. Of course the sceptics claim a dampening of the warming, using
mechanism which are usually unpublished and unproved.
While many statements about global warming are likely alarmist, the issue
really does need to be treated very seriously.
Cheers,
David Jones.
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005
Date: Sun, 16 Apr 2000 16:36:57 -0700 (PDT)
From: Andrew Boskell [a_boskell at yahoo.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Follow up on the Devonport storm
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Hi All,
Just a brief follow up on the "severe" thunderstorm
that hit the North-West Coast of Tassie early Sunday
morning. I'm slowly gathering info, which is leading
me to some interesting conclusions about this storm.
It seems that the storm did not effect Burnie, which
is around 45km West of Devonport. But Ulverstone,
which is around 20-25km East of Burnie, received the
most damage. This seems to be where the damage trail
starts. There were numerous houses that had their
roof's blown away, one roof travelled around 500m
before coming to rest on someone else�s roof, thus
bringing the whole lot down! I have also received some
reports of trees that have been snapped off at the
base, without the roots being pulled up! This
phenomenon appears most in Ulverstone. One lane of the
Highway was closed for sometime at Latrobe while
fallen trees were cleared. The damage path seems to be
under an estimated 7km wide. It would seem to me that
this event may have been caused by severe
down-droughts produced by the thunderstorm. The winds
produced by this storm are the worst to hit the area
for 10 years. Another interesting effect from the
storm was the �run� on births, my mother-in-law is a
midwife and she said that they had a run on births,
during the storm! Still gathering heaps of stories, so
there may be more to come!
Andrew.
=====
Andrew Boskell
"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
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006
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Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 09:41:26 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: intro time
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Hi Tony
Welcome to the list and I hope you do enjoy it.
You also have a very good, well presented site Tony. You obviously are an
excellent photographer with a good variety of photographs.
Jimmy Deguara
At 07:28 17/04/00 -0500, you wrote:
>hello everyone,
>I am pretty much new to the list and I thought it was about time i
>introduced myself to everyone.I am Tony Middleton and i live near
>Wonthaggi in South Gippsland (Vic.),we have a beautiful coast down here.I
>enjoy photography and basically most things to do with nature and the
>weather (of course).if you want to see some of my work go to my website
>below.I also love to travel,which i hope to do a lot more of in the future.
>Well it was a great day yesterday with several nice cells about,if anyone
>archived/saved radar Melbourne local loops of the afternoon(sun.16) please
>send them to me,it would be greatly appreciated.
> thanks.
>
>
>LATER......
>
>T.Middleton.
>http://www.angelfire.com/journal/anvilindustries/
>
>
>
>
>______________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>
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007
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 09:48:29 +1000
From: Don White [donwhite at ozemail.com.au]
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Subject: aus-wx: Interesting day in Sydney (Matthew Pearce, not Don)
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Hi all
(Not actually Don here - Matthew Pearce, I'm at his place today working
and thought I'd reply from here)
Yes, well, Sunday turned out to be a very interesting day in E NSW, not
only in the Hunter area, although those storms did look very nice, and,
yes Matt, I'll go halves with you for a flat in Newcastle :)
The day had promise in my opinion since Friday, with good LI forecast, a
strong jet and the front coming through sometime on Sunday night. By
late Saturday, I still thought Sunday would be very nice with the
forecast going for a sunny morning then the chance of a late shower or
storm. However, waking up to overcast middle level cloud on Sunday, was
not the best start to the day. Without checking the satpics, radar or
anything, I began to write off the day, either thinking the cloud band
had arrived too early, or the system had formed into a rain band.
These sentiments were changed though, when just after 10am, a very heavy
line of showers moved across from the west, which looked as though they
should have had a few rumbles of thunder in them. Straight on the
internet! Sure enough, radar showed the line with a large area of
10-20mm/hr embedded in the line. Speaking to Jimmy, he said there had
been some thunder at his place earlier on from this line. However, there
was nothing behind it, so we were going to be in for a dry few hours. I
made the most of this time, given the fact I have a 25% Mid-Session Exam
on Wednesday, so had to study, and didn't want to miss any of the action
that looked possible again later in the afternoon.
A nice cell developed to the NW around 1pm and lasted for a couple of
hours, eventually moving over the Central Coast, where thunder was heard
by an ASWA member at Narara, just out of Gosford. This cell had very
nice structure from where I was, a long way away, despite the fact it
had a backdrop of overcast high cloud. Once this moved out to sea and
died though, I was not expecting anything further action until the main
rain band arrived during the evening, especially as the sky was taking
on a uniform grey appearance. Therefore, back to the study, where I took
no notice of the weather for a few hours(dangerous move).
Once I emerged(5pm), the sky looked very interesting to the N/NW! A very
dark grey colour, with lines of TCu and heavy precip could be made out
in the distance. This had "storm" written all over it to me, but
unfortunately it was starting to get dark, so photos would have been
pretty useless by this stage. I immediately went on the radar, and was
shocked to see most of Sydney now covered by light to moderate rain with
heavier stuff to the north, what I could see. There were many areas of
20-40mm/hr in this, occasionally going 40-100. I then dismissed study
for the rest of the day :) and settled back to watch the storms, which
seemed to be moving in a S/SE direction.
Over the next half hour, the sky became darker and darker, with light
rain developing. Thunder also began to increase with lightning every
couple of minutes or so. Between 5:30pm and 5:45pm, the storm passed its
closest to me, but we were by no means in its path. Rain was, although
moderately heavy, definitely not torrential, and no flooding occurred in
my area. Wind gusts were almost non-existant. HOWEVER, the main feature
of this storm was its lightning activity! During this 15 minute period,
CC lightning was observed out my window every 10 secs or so, and thunder
was basically continuous. It was the most lightning active storm I have
experienced in some time, probably since April 14 last year. (I think
Jimmy and Anthony Cornelius were less than impressed with me when I kept
telling them on ICQ about how much lightning, thunder and rain etc i was
seeing :) )
However, as quickly as it came, it left, with thunder not heard after
about 6:30pm. With radar looking less interesting, more "rain periods"
than "storms", I left for church about 7pm. Rain, with occasional
moderate falls, was experienced for the rest of the night until the
front came through early this morning. The airmass change with the front
was very evident this morning with very clear skies, no wind, and much
colder temperatures(around 14C at my place at sunrise).
All up, 17mm in the 24 hours to 9am today, including about 2mm from the
morning heavy shower, and the rest from the evening showers and storms
followed by rain periods. Not a bad event, although it looks like a
while before the next one.
Matthew Pearce (St Ives, northern Sydney)
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008
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Sydney April 14 DOPPER RADAR!!!
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 09:57:43 +1000
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Awesome!
Be nice when the full MDA stuff is put in as well. To open an old wound,
one cannot help but wonder if this was available to the BoM in real time
during storm approach...
John.
>snip
Morning everyone
Nice little treat here for everyone, NSSL/NOAA (National Severe Storms
Laberatory) in America have put up Doppler Radar for the April 14 Storm !!!
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/swat/Cases/990414/case.html
A hook echo is visable.
A huge thanks to Jane from MSC for the link, I didnt know it existed!
Would it have been so hard for the BoM to put something like this together?
I guess we should consider ourselves lucky that an american company puts
some of our southern hemisphere stuff up on the web available freely for
everyone, unlike here...
Matthew Smith
-----Sydney Storm Chasers-----
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
----Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)----
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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009
From: "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: global warming.
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 00:04:23 +0100
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times are always GMT
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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----- Original Message -----
From: Dr David Jones [d.jones at bom.gov.au]
To: Aussie Weather (E-mail) [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Monday, April 17, 2000 1:44 AM
Subject: aus-wx: global warming.
> >I believe that global warming's a myth - having been through one ice age
> >prediction. It'll sort itself out - Gaia will take care of that.
>
> Les, there is no shortage of irony in this statement, in that you are
> willing to put your faith in an unproven "feel good" theory
No shortage of irony....it's plastered all over my webpage. If it wasn't for
a greenhouse effect none of us would be here at all!
I'm sceptical about the extent of manmade temperature increase caused by the
increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, I'm certainly no new age hippie, though
(too old at 40 for that and too young to be an old age hippie)
Nice LP supercell pic though!
Les (UK)
------------------------------------------------------
Les Crossan
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W
UK Storm Chaser / Severe Weather Enthusiast
See the Wallsend StormCam at:
http://freespace.virgin.net/les.crossan/webcam.htm
Melbourne Storm Chasers (MSC) - Victoria, AUS
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) - AUS
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
http
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010
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Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 10:27:05 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting day in Sydney (Matthew Pearce, not Don)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Matthew,
It comes as a surprise to me that we got just moderate rain overall and
similar rain to your morning event. Our total was 13.4mm which compares
well with your 17mm. It goes to show that the cloud mass was screaming along.
As to the Hunter, the storms were good but I don't think it was worth the
risk of travelling there. The LI were jumping around like crazy changing
with each models - no consistency. Though some good storms for April.
As to your lightning show, I think that 22nd September last year eats the
cake for lightning activity this season - which I dare say lacked lightning
activity. Also, those who bothered to wake up in the early hours of 1st
February 2000 would have enjoyed that spectacle - thunder echoing in the
valleys.
Anyway, enough from me.
BigJim
At 09:48 17/04/00 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi all
>
>(Not actually Don here - Matthew Pearce, I'm at his place today working
>and thought I'd reply from here)
>
>Yes, well, Sunday turned out to be a very interesting day in E NSW, not
>only in the Hunter area, although those storms did look very nice, and,
>yes Matt, I'll go halves with you for a flat in Newcastle :)
>
>The day had promise in my opinion since Friday, with good LI forecast, a
>strong jet and the front coming through sometime on Sunday night. By
>late Saturday, I still thought Sunday would be very nice with the
>forecast going for a sunny morning then the chance of a late shower or
>storm. However, waking up to overcast middle level cloud on Sunday, was
>not the best start to the day. Without checking the satpics, radar or
>anything, I began to write off the day, either thinking the cloud band
>had arrived too early, or the system had formed into a rain band.
>
>These sentiments were changed though, when just after 10am, a very heavy
>line of showers moved across from the west, which looked as though they
>should have had a few rumbles of thunder in them. Straight on the
>internet! Sure enough, radar showed the line with a large area of
>10-20mm/hr embedded in the line. Speaking to Jimmy, he said there had
>been some thunder at his place earlier on from this line. However, there
>was nothing behind it, so we were going to be in for a dry few hours. I
>made the most of this time, given the fact I have a 25% Mid-Session Exam
>on Wednesday, so had to study, and didn't want to miss any of the action
>that looked possible again later in the afternoon.
>
>A nice cell developed to the NW around 1pm and lasted for a couple of
>hours, eventually moving over the Central Coast, where thunder was heard
>by an ASWA member at Narara, just out of Gosford. This cell had very
>nice structure from where I was, a long way away, despite the fact it
>had a backdrop of overcast high cloud. Once this moved out to sea and
>died though, I was not expecting anything further action until the main
>rain band arrived during the evening, especially as the sky was taking
>on a uniform grey appearance. Therefore, back to the study, where I took
>no notice of the weather for a few hours(dangerous move).
>
>Once I emerged(5pm), the sky looked very interesting to the N/NW! A very
>dark grey colour, with lines of TCu and heavy precip could be made out
>in the distance. This had "storm" written all over it to me, but
>unfortunately it was starting to get dark, so photos would have been
>pretty useless by this stage. I immediately went on the radar, and was
>shocked to see most of Sydney now covered by light to moderate rain with
>heavier stuff to the north, what I could see. There were many areas of
>20-40mm/hr in this, occasionally going 40-100. I then dismissed study
>for the rest of the day :) and settled back to watch the storms, which
>seemed to be moving in a S/SE direction.
>
>Over the next half hour, the sky became darker and darker, with light
>rain developing. Thunder also began to increase with lightning every
>couple of minutes or so. Between 5:30pm and 5:45pm, the storm passed its
>closest to me, but we were by no means in its path. Rain was, although
>moderately heavy, definitely not torrential, and no flooding occurred in
>my area. Wind gusts were almost non-existant. HOWEVER, the main feature
>of this storm was its lightning activity! During this 15 minute period,
>CC lightning was observed out my window every 10 secs or so, and thunder
>was basically continuous. It was the most lightning active storm I have
>experienced in some time, probably since April 14 last year. (I think
>Jimmy and Anthony Cornelius were less than impressed with me when I kept
>telling them on ICQ about how much lightning, thunder and rain etc i was
>seeing :) )
>
>However, as quickly as it came, it left, with thunder not heard after
>about 6:30pm. With radar looking less interesting, more "rain periods"
>than "storms", I left for church about 7pm. Rain, with occasional
>moderate falls, was experienced for the rest of the night until the
>front came through early this morning. The airmass change with the front
>was very evident this morning with very clear skies, no wind, and much
>colder temperatures(around 14C at my place at sunrise).
>
>All up, 17mm in the 24 hours to 9am today, including about 2mm from the
>morning heavy shower, and the rest from the evening showers and storms
>followed by rain periods. Not a bad event, although it looks like a
>while before the next one.
>
>Matthew Pearce (St Ives, northern Sydney)
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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011
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Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 11:24:49 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matthew Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: A Stormy Question
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Les Lemon and anyone else...
I got talking to Jimmy this morning about a storm we had on Sept 22 last
year (here in sydney) , with regards to a possible wall cloud that
developed at the back end of the storm. This was an odd situation where 2
storms actually merged (a strong one and a weaker one), dumping alot of
rain in and around
Sydney
Here is a photo I took of the possible wall cloud :
www.sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/Matt/1999/09-22-99-08.htm
A photo Jimmy took around the same time from the other side :
www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1999/0922jd12.jpg
Jimmy suspects it was a wall cloud (he viewed it as well) and Andrew
Treloar (Head of Severe Weather in Sydney at the time) said the storm had
"supercellular characteristics". I was just curious as to what your
thoughts might be. Radar is below, as you can see the 2 storms merged and
then moved north east for a short period.
Any comments would be appreciated by the both of us.
Matthew Smith
-----Sydney Storm Chasers -----
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
----Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA )----
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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012
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Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 11:34:43 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matthew Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: here is the radar loop
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Sorry, forgot to add the link to the radar loop
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/temporary/radar/230999loop.gif
Matt Smith
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013
From: "Lyle Pakula" [remote at leski.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm Chase around Melbourne
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 11:26:06 +1000
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Hi Debbie,
I was practically in the same area yeaterday. I'm wondering if, at about
4-5, you noticed the cell moving SE over Sandringham/Mordiallic start
rapidly back building, just as it's tail passed over the beach?
The little cell over the far side of the bay was quite picturesque - no
lighting spotted but with the sunsetting and the big ships crusing in front
view of the rain curtain - looked very nice. The mammutus you spoke of was
the first mammutus clouds I had ever seen. All in all I had a very exciting
day, unfortunatly the storms didn't have quite the same enthusisasm :-)
Cheers,
Lyle
- - ---==( lyle_pakula at hotmail.com )==--- - -
.
/ \ .
/~~~\/ \ " No Friends On A Powder Day "
/ \ \
/ \ \
----- Original Message -----
From: Debbie Parker [debp at rie.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Sunday, April 16, 2000 9:54 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm Chase around Melbourne
Andrew,
While you were in Williamstown etc I was on the other side of the bay
enjoying the spectacle.
Saw a nice CG (around 14:20) hit the water just near Sandringham yacht
club ('home' !!) with simultaneous thunder & heavy rain & winds that
increased from around 10 knots to 25 knots in about 5 minutes. At about
16:00 or so another cell hit but I didn't get out taking photos until
around 17:00 when I saw the next one heading right for me. I took a few
shots from Picnic Point at Sandringham before moving towards Brighton -
I got some nice shots of the rain curtain at sunset - little bit of
mammatus on the leading edge - and managed to finish off the film &
wished I'd had more!! Not a lot of lightning/thunder in any of them but
great nonetheless.
Cheers
Debbie Parker
----- Original Message -----
From: McDonald [mailto:mcdonald at one.net.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Sunday, April 16, 2000 8:00 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chase around Melbourne
Evening all,
After a phonecall from Jane at 12:30pm telling me that there was some
serious looking congestus to the SW and W I decided on a storm chase
after checking radar, soundings and forecast charts. LI's of -1 to -2
and CAPE of 500 or so across Central Victoria had me more than a little
interested, along with the 20knt 850mb winds, 60knt 500mb winds and a
300mb jet of 105 knts. Also the temperature profile of the atmosphere
was interesting me with thoughts of hail popping into mind with 850
temps of 8C, 500mb temps of -21C and 300mb temps of -46C.
Thanks to Matt Smith (for the radar updates), Clyve Herbert (who rang me
at the start of the chase), Jane O'Neill (who alerted me to the
developing situation and then kept me informed as to what was happening
where she was) and Claire McDonald (for telling me how good the storms
were out in the E of the state while I was in the W of the state -
thanks sis - hehe).
I hope the other Melbournites enjoyed this system. Thanks and congrats
to Nick Sykes for picking up the potential for this system yesterday
even though the BoM were only going for showers.
Andrew McDonald
(MSC - Macca)
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014
From: "Lyle Pakula" [remote at leski.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: "Quiet Thunder"
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 12:14:47 +1000
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Hi,
I think John's explination of it being quiter if you are below the
terminating point of the lightning bolt seems very plausable. If you are
travelling towards the bolt at a high speed, you will certainly get a higher
pitched sound. As our ears's sensitivity to 'loudness' drops off at the ends
of our hearing range, with the higher pitched sounds (or lower if driving
away), that too would give the impression of a quieter bolt. Car design
would be a huge influence. So what about the case of no car and a CG
striking at your level, nearby with not objects to interfere with?
My guess is that it wouldn't be quiter at all. Rather, the adrenalin that
would start pumping through you would act as quite a dampner. For example,
in a fight you don't hear anyone around you. Many boxer's will a test that
they don't hear the crowd. I'm sure a psychologist would have a good
explination of what's going on in your head under these extreme conditions.
I imagine even a seasoned storm chaser would only have a handfull life/death
falshes and would never get accustomed to such a force of nature. If they
were that fearless, I wouldn't want to chase with them!
Cheers,
Lyle
- - ---==( lyle_pakula at hotmail.com )==--- - -
.
/ \ .
/~~~\/ \ " No Friends On A Powder Day "
/ \ \
/ \ \
----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Sunday, April 16, 2000 10:21 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne cells
> Hi Macca,
>
> >
> > Well - I do know something - I can guarantee that while driving, thunder
is
> > very difficult to hear even when very close (i also found out today with
> > several strikes within 3km of me). I'm not sure if this is due to the
road
> > noise, the movement of the car or something else. Anyone?
>
> Certainly, it's much harder to hear thunder in cars (with the windows up
> of course!) Especially in newer cars that are well shielded from
> outside noise, or older/more powerful cars that have louder engines then
> other cars.
>
> Another reason, would be the way you're moving compared to the sound
> waves (something along the doppler effect of a siren???) If you're
> moving towards the sound, or away from the sound - it might have an
> effect. But whether or not the speed of sound relative to the speed you
> are travelling has a dramatic effect, I'm not sure - just pure
> speculation.
>
> I had a similar event on Dec 10, 1999 when a lightning strike hit a pole
> close to me while driving. It sounded almost like a gun shot.
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> 14 Kinsella St
> Belmont, Brisbane
> QLD, 4153
> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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015
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 15:43:47 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Rosita developing N of Port Hedland?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The BoM seems pretty confident a TC is developing from a stationary
tropical low N of Port Hedland. The satpics certainly show that they have
good reason for doing so. JTWC has also issued a TCFA for it.
Hope you lot in Karratha are ready for it!
BoM TC Outlook and JTWC TCFA pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW51W00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
>
>TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
>Issued at 12:54pm WST on Monday the 17th of April 2000
>For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST
>
>Tropical Low off NW coast
>Location : near 14.1S 119.4E
> about 700 kilometres [375 nautical miles]
> north of Port Hedland
>Central Pressure : 1000 hPa
>Recent movement : stationary
>
>DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
> next 24 hours : high.
> 24-48 hours : high
> 48-72 hours : high.
>
>REMARKS - continue steady development expected.
>
>No other suspect areas.
>
>** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
>** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
>** LOW = 10-20% MODERATE = 30-40% HIGH = 50% or more **
>128
>WTXS22 PGTW 170030
>SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 170021Z APR 00//
>RMKS/
>1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
>125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0S4 119.9E0 TO 18.0S9
>116.0E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
>JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
>TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
>METSAT IMAGERY AT 162301Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
>LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 118.6E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
>AT 06 KNOTS.
>2. REMARKS:
>THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 119.5E6 IS
>NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 118.6E6. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
>IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
>(LLCC) SITUATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
>INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STEADILY IMPROVING ORGANIZATION
>WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHWEST.
>IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE AREA HAS GOOD INFLOW. ANIMATED WATER
>VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE UW-CIMSS AND 200 MB
>ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE AREA IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
>FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
>TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
>MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
>WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
>3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 180030Z2.//
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
016
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: A Stormy Question
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 15:58:48 +1000
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Hi Matthew and others,
This was an interesting day. My thought is that the NE movement of this
cell after it passed Parramatta may either be evidence a supercell, i.e.,
becoming a left mover, or merely a response to NE seabreeze encountered as
the storm got closer to the coast which influenced the direction of
convection propagation. This latter explanation may also account for the
sudden intensification also noted. However, the question arises as to why
the weaker storm with which it collided, did not also change course. I seem
to recall that at maximum intensity 10cent piece sized hail fell in parts of
Ryde, certainly evidence of intense convection.
It is interesting to note in the latter stages of the animation, that
subsequently a second cell forms behind the one in question, which is itself
an unusual event to say the least. This cell also initially moves East,
then as it gains strength tends NE as well (last frame or two).
Looking at the two photo's this does not strike me as a wall cloud, merely a
small curved shelf cloud.
Regards,
John.
>snip
Subject: aus-wx: A Stormy Question
Les Lemon and anyone else...
I got talking to Jimmy this morning about a storm we had on Sept 22 last
year (here in sydney) , with regards to a possible wall cloud that developed
at the back end of the storm. This was an odd situation where 2 storms
actually merged (a strong one and a weaker one), dumping alot of rain in and
around
Sydney
Here is a photo I took of the possible wall cloud :
www.sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/Matt/1999/09-22-99-08.htm
A photo Jimmy took around the same time from the other side :
www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1999/0922jd12.j
pg
Jimmy suspects it was a wall cloud (he viewed it as well) and Andrew Treloar
(Head of Severe Weather in Sydney at the time) said the storm had
"supercellular characteristics". I was just curious as to what your thoughts
might be. Radar is below, as you can see the 2 storms merged and then moved
north east for a short period.
Any comments would be appreciated by the both of us.
Matthew Smith
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
017
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32)
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 16:28:13 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: A Stormy Question
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
It was an inflow region with very large towers popping up above it, and an
obvious lowered (and circular) base. Jimmy was viewing it from the other
side at the time of he photo.
Matt
>Looking at the two photo's this does not strike me as a wall cloud, merely a
>small curved shelf cloud.
>
>Regards,
>John.
>>snip
>
>Subject: aus-wx: A Stormy Question
>
>Les Lemon and anyone else...
>
>I got talking to Jimmy this morning about a storm we had on Sept 22 last
>year (here in sydney) , with regards to a possible wall cloud that developed
>at the back end of the storm. This was an odd situation where 2 storms
>actually merged (a strong one and a weaker one), dumping alot of rain in and
>around
>Sydney
>
>Here is a photo I took of the possible wall cloud :
>www.sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/Matt/1999/09-22-99-08.htm
>
>A photo Jimmy took around the same time from the other side :
>www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1999/0922jd12.j
>pg
>
>Jimmy suspects it was a wall cloud (he viewed it as well) and Andrew Treloar
>(Head of Severe Weather in Sydney at the time) said the storm had
>"supercellular characteristics". I was just curious as to what your thoughts
>might be. Radar is below, as you can see the 2 storms merged and then moved
>north east for a short period.
>
>Any comments would be appreciated by the both of us.
>
>Matthew Smith
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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018
X-Sender: bayns at mail.broad.net.au
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Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 07:09:08 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: this arvos pics
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hey all,
some decent weather here, anythings better than fine!:(
also, some odd looking clouds, the sky was full of them like it was a wave of some sorts. anyway, see for yourself.
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1704001.jpg sw
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1704002.jpg s
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1704003.jpg s close up
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1704004.jpg sw later
http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1704005.jpg s later
cyas
steve from gold coast
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019
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Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 17:23:06 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath [lismorer at bigpond.com]
Subject: aus-wx: 1630 storm evans head
Cc: "Halden Boyd"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
I have uploaded some digital camera pics taken by Halden Boyd and some
radar of the storm that passed through Evans Head in NE NSW at 4.30pm 17/4.
27mm fell in 15 minutes and a few rumbles of thunder. Winds reached 40 knots.
http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/temp/halden/
regards, Michael
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020
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Hail loss model for Sydney with an experimental ENSO
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 18:03:06 +1000
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Some very interesting reading at
http://www.es.mq.edu.au/nhrc/nhq/v6i1/
The only thing I would offer ( and it is just my opinion ) is that in the
article supercells are not distinguished from severe mutli cell hailstorms.
What you have with Sydney's notorious supercell hailers is that a small
percentage of the storms being responsible for most of the damage.
Supercells are an entirely different animal to the far more common
hailstorm, therefore drawing data from comparing all hailstorms to ENSO may
not point to the occurrence of the supercell hailstorm.
Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com
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021
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 18:33:35 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC 27S (Rosita?) N of Port Hedland.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
JTWC has issued the 1st cyclone warning for TC 27S situated N of Port
Hedland moving S.
JTWC warning pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>WTXS33 PGTW 170900
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 001
> 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> ---
> WARNING POSITION:
> 170600Z4 --- NEAR 14.1S6 119.6E7
> MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
> POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
> POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
> PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 119.6E7
> ---
> FORECASTS:
> 12 HRS, VALID AT:
> 171800Z7 --- 14.5S0 119.2E3
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
> ---
> 24 HRS, VALID AT:
> 180600Z5 --- 15.1S7 118.6E6
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
> 025 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
> ---
> 36 HRS, VALID AT:
> 181800Z8 --- 15.6S2 118.0E0
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
> 030 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
> ---
> EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> 48 HRS, VALID AT:
> 190600Z6 --- 16.3S0 117.5E4
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
> 035 NM ELSEWHERE
> ---
>REMARKS:
>170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 119.5E6.
>THE AREA OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE KIMBERLEY COAST OF AUSTRALIA,
>WHICH WAS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22
>PGTW 170030), HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S. TROPICAL
>CYCLONE (TC) 27S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH OF PORT
>HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE
>PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 170530Z6 VISIBLE
>SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
>CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
>IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 12
>HOURS. HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS SHOWN IMPROVED ORGANIZATION ONLY
>DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE TWO SYMMETRIC
>SHAPED REGIONS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LOW-
>LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED JUST TO
>THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE
>SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN TERRITORY OF AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO
>BUILD OVER THE KIMBERLEY COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS PROVIDING A
>SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 27S. TC 27S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
>CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
>MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
>SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 170021Z APR 00 TROPICAL
>CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 170030) NEXT WARNINGS
>AT 172100Z1 (DTG 171952Z5) AND 180900Z8 (DTG 180752Z3). REFER TO
>TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
>HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25P (NEIL) WARNINGS
>(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S
>(INNOCENTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
>
>NNNN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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022
From: "McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne's Storms on Sunday
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 18:47:57 +1000
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Hi All,
I'm just writing a quick email to say how fantastic
it was to see quite a few Melbournians out and about on Sunday chasing or
observing storms. It was one of the more active storm days with storms
around most of the suburbs and I am really pleased to see everyone getting into
the field and viewing the real thing. The more of us that are out there
the more we will see. I hope that it bit you all really badly and you all,
like me, feel like you want to be out there everytime there is a storm.
Hopefully it won't be too long before our next coldies outbreak in Melbourne so
we can all get another fix of storm fever.
Andrew McDonald
(MSC - Macca)
023
From: "Keith & Jason" [kevans at kisser.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Rosita
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 16:49:57 +0800
Organization: Karratha AWS
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Carl and all
Looks like the NW maybe in for one more big blow
for the 99/00 TC Season. JTWC are saying the Tropical Low that has been
north of Port Hedland for the past couple of days has now reached cat 1 TC
strength and the BoM will probly soon name it also. Currently it is almost
stationary but a slow S/SW movement is likely over the next few
days.
The weather here today has been warm, overcast with
increasing high cloud and showers/storms developing inland Max of 32.7C winds
have been light N'ly most of the day with the pressure remaining steady at
around 1006.8 hPa
Weather Obs: http://www.kisser.net.au/kevans/weather/
Here is what JTWC are saying :)
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTXS33 PGTW
170900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR
001
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE
AVERAGE
---
WARNING
POSITION:
170600Z4 --- NEAR 14.1S6
119.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03
KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060
NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY
SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6
119.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12
HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.5S0 119.2E3
MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT:
225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID
AT:
180600Z5 --- 15.1S7 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04
KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 15.6S2 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS
055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04
KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 16.3S0 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT
WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR
14.2S7 119.5E6.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE KIMBERLEY COAST OF
AUSTRALIA,
WHICH WAS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS22
PGTW 170030), HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S. TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 27S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH OF PORT
HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 170530Z6 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
THE PAST 12
HOURS. HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS SHOWN IMPROVED ORGANIZATION ONLY
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE TWO SYMMETRIC
SHAPED
REGIONS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LOW-
LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRITORY OF AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE KIMBERLEY COAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS PROVIDING A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 27S. TC 27S SHOULD
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS 12 FEET. THIS
WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 170021Z APR 00 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 170030) NEXT WARNINGS
AT 172100Z1
(DTG 171952Z5) AND 180900Z8 (DTG 180752Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 25P (NEIL) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S
(INNOCENTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
Next few days should be interesting
:)))
Regards
Jason / Keith
Karratha W.A
024
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting day in Sydney (Matthew Pearce, not Don)
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 18:49:37 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>
> yes Matt, I'll go halves with you for a flat in Newcastle :)
>
Newcastle itself tends to miss a lot of the action. Perhaps Muswellbrook or
Scone would be better options. It is near 2 hours from Newcastle to Scone.
One thing is certain if you want to avoid storms a nice flat in Wollongong
is the place to be. This is the worst season I can ever recall, even non
weather people have mentioned to me the lack of storms. You can count
Wollongong's thunder days since September 1999 on 1 hand.
Michael
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025
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 18:33:17 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer [mjd at iinet.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Rosita has been named from the BoM
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
IDW50W19
40:0:1:24:14S118E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1026UTC 17 APRIL 2000
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Rosita central pressure 995 hPa located at 1000UTC
Within 50 nautical miles of:
Latitude fourteen decimal three south [14.3S]
Longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal three east [119.3E]
and moving slowly south southwest.
AREA AFFECTED
Tropical cyclone causing 30/45 knot winds within 90 nautical miles of
centre
with rough to very rough seas, moderate swell.
FORECAST
At 2200 UTC 17 April 14.5 south 119.2 east 990 hPa
At 1000 UTC 18 April 14.8 south 119.0 east 980 hPa
Next warning issued 1700 UTC 17 April 2000
WEATHER PERTH
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026
From: "Keith & Jason" [kevans at kisser.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: TC Rosita just named by the BoM
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 18:36:49 +0800
Organization: Karratha AWS
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600
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Heya all
BoM just named the Tropical Low Rosita currently
990 hpa moving slowly SSW
expected to be cat 2 tomorrow :)
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY
THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH
AT 1026UTC 17 APRIL 2000
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN
AREA
SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Rosita central pressure 995 hPa
located at 1000UTC
Within 50 nautical miles of:
Latitude fourteen
decimal three south [14.3S]
Longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal three
east [119.3E]
and moving slowly south southwest.
AREA
AFFECTED
Tropical cyclone causing 30/45 knot winds within 90 nautical miles
of centre
with rough to very rough seas, moderate swell.
FORECAST
At 2200 UTC 17 April 14.5 south 119.2 east 990
hPa
At 1000 UTC 18 April 14.8 south 119.0 east 980 hPa
Next
warning issued 1700 UTC 17 April 2000
WEATHER PERTH
Regards
Jason / Keith
Karratha W.A
027
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: here is the radar loop
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 20:38:19 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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Notice the almost intelligent way the system has a split around Wollongong.
Nice hailer down near Nowra, a gap at the 'gong and more stuff NW of
Wollongong. The higher ground near Robertson must play some role here ?
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: Matthew Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Monday, 17 April 2000 11:34
Subject: aus-wx: here is the radar loop
> Sorry, forgot to add the link to the radar loop
>
> http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/temporary/radar/230999loop.gif
>
> Matt Smith
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028
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: this arvos pics
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 12:28:33 GMT
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Interesting, Steve. Shot 4 (earlier, SW) certainly looks like virga
from high-based Sc. Shots 1/2, however, seem too extended and have
edges too clear for virga, even thick drizzly virga, but with the mix
of large Cu, Ac, As and Sc, I think it's a chaotic enough sky to
contain some unclassifiable bits. Interesting that both the virga and
the wave cloud in 1/2 both seem to be lying from E to W -- a quick
check of the 850hPa winds suggests that wind would have been fairly
fresh from the W, so possibly some local shear in the lower levels is
responsible. The 00z 850 anals also had a bullseye of >90% humidity to
the west of you, which may have been over you and enhancing this sort
of chaotic sky development late afternoon.
Laurier
On Mon, 17 Apr 2000 17:09:08 +1000, steve baynham
wrote:
>hey all,
>some decent weather here, anythings better than fine!:(
>also, some odd looking clouds, the sky was full of them like it was a wave of some sorts. anyway, see for yourself.
>http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1704001.jpg sw
>http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1704002.jpg s
>http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1704003.jpg s close up
>http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1704004.jpg sw later
>http://www.angelfire.com/ok2/gany/images/1704005.jpg s later
>
>cyas
>steve from gold coast
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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029
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 22:37:10 +1000
From: MSC [cadence at rubix.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, Wx-chase [WX-CHASE at postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne's Storms & report for the 14th April
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> MSC - Macca wrote:
>
> Hi All,
>
> I'm just writing a quick email to say how fantastic it was to see
> quite a few Melbournians out and about on Sunday chasing or observing
> storms. It was one of the more active storm days with storms around
> most of the suburbs and I am really pleased to see everyone getting
> into the field and viewing the real thing. The more of us that are
> out there the more we will see.
I'll echo this sentiment - it's nice to see more of the eyes and ears of
Victoria out there enjoying the scenery!!!......and to tempt you
further, the report for the 14th April is up at
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/14_4_00.htm
There'll be more reports and updates go up in the next few days - and
keep your eye on the MSC Forecast Outlook and Discussion Page at
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/apr2000.htm
so you know when to put your socialising aside for your next drive in
the country!!
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill
cadence at rubix.net.au
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
"..thinking outside the square"
--------------------------------
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030
From: "Zac" [mnk at Dingoblue.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne's Storms & report for the 14th April
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 22:58:37 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
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Yeahhh,
Even one Sydneyite :)
----- Original Message -----
From: MSC [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Monday, April 17, 2000 10:37 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne's Storms & report for the 14th April
> > MSC - Macca wrote:
> >
> > Hi All,
> >
> > I'm just writing a quick email to say how fantastic it was to see
> > quite a few Melbournians out and about on Sunday chasing or observing
> > storms. It was one of the more active storm days with storms around
> > most of the suburbs and I am really pleased to see everyone getting
> > into the field and viewing the real thing. The more of us that are
> > out there the more we will see.
>
>
>
> I'll echo this sentiment - it's nice to see more of the eyes and ears of
> Victoria out there enjoying the scenery!!!......and to tempt you
> further, the report for the 14th April is up at
> http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/14_4_00.htm
>
>
> There'll be more reports and updates go up in the next few days - and
> keep your eye on the MSC Forecast Outlook and Discussion Page at
> http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/apr2000.htm
> so you know when to put your socialising aside for your next drive in
> the country!!
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill
> cadence at rubix.net.au
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
> "..thinking outside the square"
>
> --------------------------------
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031
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Latest MRF worth a look
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2000 13:15:39 GMT
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The 00z MRF run is worth a look -- probably worth framing if it all
comes true. The 12-hourly sequence at
http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/fiorino/wxmap/mrf/archive/2000041700/mrf.alltau.prp.ausnz.htm
shows:
1. TC Paul making landfall about halfway between Pt Hedland and Broome
late Thurs morning. MRF has been consistent with the trajectory, but
yesterday's run had it crossing the coast late Wed morning.
2. A curious band of max intensity rain lying east-west through
central WA from Wednesday morning, and remaining virtually stationary
until TC Paul whisks it away to the SE late on Friday. Again, MRF has
been consistent with this feature, though it's hard to explain what
causes it -- possibly a low level convergence line in the moisture
band SEof the TC, though it's so far removed from the TC at first to
make that questionable.
3. The ridge currently lying from under WA into W NSW gradually
rotating to a SW to NE axis by Friday morning with a 1036hPa High west
of Tassie by Sat morning ridging to the south, and a low of around
1000hPa east of Tassie, with an almighty gradient southerly between,
pushing the 540 thickness line up to the Murray Valley.
GASP ignores Paul, but slowly develops a deep surface trough over WA
Tues/Wed, and gives heavy rain over inland SA Thurs to Sat as the
trough moves east. GASP also favours strong high development west of
Tassie at the weekend, with 1035 by Sunday and 1038 by Monday!
Although GASP doesn't like a low developing east of Tassie, it still
pushes the 540 line briefly into Vic on Sun morning. The 850 temp 2
degree isotherm is up into central NSW by then, so check you have film
in the camera, Lindsay.
NOGAPs rather unrealistically has Paul taking a week to get to
Karratha after a liesurely journey down the coast, but also features
the central WA intense rain band from midweek. It also develops a
strong high over western Bass Strait by Sunday, but shoots the cold
air northwards into the Tasman rather than over Victoria.
JMA also has intense central WA rainband, but orients the weekend high
more WSW to ENE, keeping colder air farther south.
ECMWF (no precip forecasts) is similar to MRF with the weekend high
and low west/east of Tas, but, despite taltalisingly having a cold
pool of <528 about 200km SW of Tas at 12z Sat, shoots it into the
Tasman rather than over us by Sunday night.
While the details vary (apart from the WA rain, which is remarkably
consistent from model to model), the general trend is for a
substantial change in the weather for Tas/Vic/S NSW/S SA at the
weekend. I'll be at Phillip Island watching the bike races on Sunday
in the top row of an uncovered stand just above the Bass Strait
cliffline, so I'll be taking something warm :->
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://ausweather.simplenet.com
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| Document: 000417.htm
Updated: 03 June 2000 |
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