Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ZUMAN : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1997-1998 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ZUMAN Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 980329 13:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 291321Z MAR 98//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY
HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 240 NM RADIUS OF 13.6S0 171.6E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 291130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 171.8E7. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OF FIJI CONTINUES
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT A UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE DISTURBANCE.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH SOME INDICATION OF CYCLONIC
TURNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 301330Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980330 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- 14.5S0 171.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 171.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 14.9S4 170.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 15.0S6 169.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 15.0S6 168.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 15.0S6 168.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION 14.6S1 170.8E6.
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WEST OF FIJI HAS
UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND IS NOW CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P HAS BEEN TRACKING
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 292330Z9
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO STEER TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P TOWARDS
THE WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 (DTG 301351Z3) AND
310300Z7 (DTG 310151Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P
(NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980330 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- 14.3S8 169.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 169.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 14.3S8 168.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 14.5S0 166.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 14.9S4 164.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 15.4S0 163.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION 14.3S8 169.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 301130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS DUE TO STEERING FROM MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT THE 48 HOUR POSITION AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3) AND 311500Z0
(DTG 311353Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (NATHAN) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980331 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- 14.0S5 168.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 168.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 14.1S6 167.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 14.5S0 165.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 15.3S9 163.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 16.4S1 161.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION 14.0S5 168.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND 301949Z6 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF CI4.0. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GAIN LATITUDE AFTER THIS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND HAS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 (DTG
311353Z6) AND 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
30P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980331 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z7 --- 14.3S8 167.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 167.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 14.7S2 166.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 15.1S7 165.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 15.5S1 164.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 15.8S4 161.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 311130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AUGMENTED BY
310833Z8 MICROWAVE DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
310833Z8 MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES AN EYEWALL FEATURE
FORMING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT IS STEERED GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF OUR DYNAMIC
OBJECTIVE FORECAST GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATE TRACK IS SUG-
GESTED BY THE MAJORITY OF OUR STATISTICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL
OBJECTIVE AIDS WHEREIN AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THIS SYSTEM=S SOUTH, ALLOWING TROPICAL
CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WEST-
ERLIES. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS LOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z7 IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0) AND 011500Z7 (DTG 011353Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980401 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- 15.6S2 166.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 166.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 16.8S5 164.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 17.9S7 163.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 18.7S6 161.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 19.3S3 160.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION 15.9S5 165.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 312330Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY,
311936Z3 MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM PEKOA AIRPORT
(WMO 91554). THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE-DERIVED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF CI5.0. THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING (WARMING) AND AREAL EXTENT HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST
3-HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE. TC 31P (ZUMAN) IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD COURSE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 31P (ZUMAN) SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 24-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS AN AREA
OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG 011353Z3) AND
020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980401 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- 15.6S2 165.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 165.7E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 15.8S4 165.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 16.2S9 164.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 16.6S3 162.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 17.0S8 160.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IN WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 011130Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS REINTENSIFIED
AFTER WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE ISLAND OF
ESPIRITU SANTO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
REDEVELOPMENT OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH GOOD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN)
IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH STRENGTHENS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1) AND 021500Z8
(DTG 021353Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980402 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- 15.7S3 164.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 164.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 15.8S4 162.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 15.8S4 161.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 15.9S5 160.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 16.0S7 159.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION 15.7S3 163.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
012330Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A 012330Z9 SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO ITS SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FLOW FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
31P (ZUMAN) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEMS FORWARD SPEED FOR THE GREATER
PART OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SUFFER MORE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 (DTG 021353Z4) AND 030300Z6 (DTG
30153Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980402 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO SCRIPPS LA JOLLA
SCRIPPS LA JOLLA REQ PASS TO RV ROGER REVELLE
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- 16.0S7 163.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 163.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 16.3S0 162.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 16.5S2 161.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 16.7S4 160.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 16.9S6 159.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION 16.1S8 163.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4
KNOTS FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON 021130Z7 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS AND
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A PASSING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS INTRODUCING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) HAS BEGUN MOVING
SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THIS WEAKENING IN THE
STEERING FLOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 12 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. AFTER THE 12 HOUR POSITION, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD RE-BUILD SLIGHTLY BUT THE STEERING FLOW ON THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) SHOULD BEGIN A
DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z5 (DTG 021953Z0), 030300Z6 (DTG 030153Z2), 030900Z2 (DTG
030753Z8), AND 031500Z9 (DTG 031353Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980302 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO SCRIPPS LA JOLLA CA
SCRIPPS LA JOLLA CA REQ PASS TO RV ROGER REVELLE
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- 16.1S8 162.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 162.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 16.3S0 162.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 16.5S2 161.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 16.8S5 160.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 17.1S9 159.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION 16.1S8 162.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 3
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON A 021730Z3 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS AND
A 021731Z4 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 80 KNOTS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK STEERING FLOW FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY RE-BUILD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT REMAIN
WEAK KEEPING TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE
31P (ZUMAN) SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 (DTG 030153Z2), 030900Z2 (DTG 030753Z8),
031500Z9 (DTG 031353Z5), AND 032100Z6 (DTG 031953Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980403 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO SCRIPPS LA JOLLA CA
SCRIPPS LA JOLLA CA REQ PASS TO RV ROGER REVELLE
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- 15.4S0 161.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 161.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 15.3S9 160.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 15.4S0 159.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 15.7S3 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.2S9 158.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION 15.4S0 161.6E4.
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) HAS
TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AT 6 KNOTS. THE TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE NORTH BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, THE CURRENT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 022330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND 022117Z3 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES BETWEEN 77 AND 90 KNOTS. THE FORECAST REMAINS
SIMILAR AS THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AT THE 36 HOUR PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
OVER AUSTRALIA PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P WILL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH
BY THE 12 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS
PERSISTENCE WHICH SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS
THE WEST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P
IS FORECAST TO SLOW TO 4 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE PREDOMINANT STEERING FLOW WEAKENS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS VERTICAL WIND SHEER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE.
SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AT TWELVE-HOURLY
INTERVALS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 (DTG 031353Z5) AND 040300Z7
(DTG 040153Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980403 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO SCRIPPS LA JOLLA CA
SCRIPPS LA JOLLA CA REQ PASS TO RV ROGER REVELLE
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- 15.6S2 161.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 161.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 15.8S4 161.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 16.0S7 160.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.7S4 159.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 17.9S7 159.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION 15.6S2 161.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
3 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
031130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A 031130Z8 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 80 KNOTS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE 24 THROUGH 36 HOUR FORECAST
POSITIONS AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
FURTHER WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P
(ZUMAN) SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY 48 HOURS AS
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN)
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040153Z3) AND 041500Z0 (DTG
041353Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980404 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- 16.6S3 161.5E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 161.5E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 17.6S4 161.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 18.8S7 161.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 20.3S5 161.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 22.2S6 162.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION 16.9S6 161.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 032330Z1 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 032118Z5 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF CI4.0. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS INDICATING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 31P (ZUMAN) IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. TC 31P (ZUMAN) IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6) AND 050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980404 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- 17.8S6 162.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 162.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 19.2S2 163.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 21.0S3 164.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 23.2S7 166.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AT 06 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
041130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AUGMENTED BY 040731Z5
MICROWAVE DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS CREATING MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, TROPICAL
CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) HAS REDEVELOPED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THEN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY AS ITS FORWARD MOTION INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8
(DTG 050153Z4) AND 051500Z1 (051353Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980405 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- 19.6S6 164.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 164.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 21.6S9 166.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 23.8S3 168.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION 20.1S3 164.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 052330Z3
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, 042106Z3 MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND
AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS 32 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS ITS FORWARD
MOTION INCREASES. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETED
NEAR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG
051353Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980405 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- 20.8S0 166.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 166.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 22.5S9 168.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION: 21.1S4 166.5E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (ZUMAN) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO ITS EAST.
NO CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P
(ZUMAN) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM BY THE 12 HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 15 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL
PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER WEST / JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST/JTWC). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_zuman_jtwc_advisories.htm
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