Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DAVINA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1998-1999 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone DAVINA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 990301 12:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 011221Z MAR 99//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 280 NM RADIUS OF 11.1S3 88.1E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 010600Z7 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8 88.5E1. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
3. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION BENEATH A PERSISTENT AND INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS MAY ALSO EXIST.
UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR CHARTS INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK WESTWARD VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
REGION. A 281600Z7 SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A NEARLY CLOSED
CIRCULATION WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AT
AROUND 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ARE ESTIMATED NEAR
1003 M
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990301 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CAB9WE=MISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 10.8S9 88.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S9 88.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 10.8S9 88.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 10.9S0 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 11.0S2 85.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 11.1S3 84.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 10.8S9 88.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
AND IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED TOWARD THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND IS FAIR IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT, GOOD ELSEWHERE. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 011730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0
(30 KNOTS). TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
TOWARD THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF TC 25S. THIS SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 12 HOURS AND
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED
ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 011221Z7 MAR 99 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 011230) NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z1 (DTG 020753Z7) AND 022100Z5 (DTG 021953Z0). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990302 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNING NR 002A RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 9.6S5 89.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S5 89.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 9.5S4 88.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 9.8S7 88.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 10.4S5 86.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 10.8S9 85.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 9.6S5 89.4E1. RELOCATED
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY AND IS
RELOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALLOWED FOR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO
BE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION. THE WARNING
LOCATION IS BASED ON 020530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T2.0 (30KNOTS). TC 25S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
WITH A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND THROUGHOUT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR WITH FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP DURING THE INITIAL 12
HOURS, THEN INTENSIFY CLIMATOLOGICALLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH SOME ADJUSTEMTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 (DTG 021953Z0) AND 030900Z2 (DTG
030753Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990302 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 9.5S4 89.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 9999 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S4 89.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 9.5S4 89.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 9.7S6 88.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 10.3S4 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 10.9S0 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 9.5S4 89.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM
HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ITS ORGANIZATION DESPITE A SLIGHT WARMING OF
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 021730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z2 (DTG 030753Z8) AND 032100Z6 (DTG 031953Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990303 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNING NR 004A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 10.5S6 90.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 90.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 11.2S4 90.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 11.7S9 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 12.1S4 88.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 12.6S9 86.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 10.7S8 90.5E4. RELOCATED.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S HAS BEEN RELOCATED DUE TO THE AVAILABILITY OF
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH AT 4
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
030530Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND
T2.0 (30 KNOTS). THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 25S
REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN MODERATE EQUATORIAL
WESTERLIES AND A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, TC 25S HAS REMAINED BETWEEN THESE TWO STEERING
INFLUENCES, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH AN
ERRATIC TRACK. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY STEERED BE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 25S
IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS UNDER MODERATE WESTWARD VERTICAL SHEAR. THE SHEAR WEAKENS,
HOWEVER, WEST OF THE SYSTEM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ABOVE TC 25S HAS
ALLOWED OUTFLOW TO REMAIN FAIR, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE WEST. TC 25S
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOUR. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKER AFTER THAT PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032100Z6 (DTG 031953Z1) AND 040900Z3 (DTG 040753Z9).
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990303 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 11.3S5 90.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 90.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 11.8S0 89.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 12.3S6 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 12.8S1 87.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 13.4S8 86.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 90.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS BEGINNING TO DOMINATE THAT OF THE EQUATORIAL
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS BELIEVED TO STILL BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED UNDER THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSITION IS
POOR. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN INFRARED SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING INTENSITY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
FORECAST REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD. THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC AND STATISTICAL
OBJECTIVE AIDS SUPPORT THIS TRACK FORECAST. TC 25S IS ANTICIPATED
TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DECREASES. WIND RADII ARE
BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040900Z3 (DTG 040753Z9) AND 042100Z7 (DTG 041953Z2).//
=========================================================================
WARNING 006 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990304 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 13.2S6 87.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 87.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 14.1S6 84.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 15.0S6 82.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 15.7S3 79.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 16.3S0 77.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.4S8 86.4E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S
(DAVINA) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
CONTINUE BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR HAS LESSENED AND 25S IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDERNEATH THE
200MB RIDGE. THE STRONG, MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE STEERING, BUT WE HAVE MOVED THE
TRACK NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SPED IT UP BECAUSE
DYNAMIC MODELS SHOWS THIS RIDGE BECOMING EVEN STRONGER. THIS
TRACK IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH AVAILABLE DYNAMIC TRACK GUIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 (DTG 050753Z0) AND 052100Z8 (DTG
051953Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990305 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 13.5S9 83.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 83.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 13.9S3 80.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 14.4S9 77.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 14.9S4 75.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 15.4S0 72.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 82.6E6. RELOCATED
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN EYE IS FORMING AND THAT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PREVIOUSLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT HAS WEAKENED.
DESPITE RECENT WARMING OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES, TC 25S HAS
INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION AND IS AT TYPHOON INTENSITY. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 050530Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND T4.0 (65 KNOTS).
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND DECREASE ITS TRANSLATIONAL SPEED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ALL DYNAMIC AND THE MAJORITY OF
STATISTICAL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO.
TC 25S (DAVINA) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW INCREASES IN ORGANIZATION AND
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CEASES. WIND RADII ARE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
OUTWARD DUE TO VISIBLE SATELLITE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8
(DTG 051953Z3) AND 060900Z5 (DTG 060753Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990305 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 14.6S1 80.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 80.4E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 15.3S9 77.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 15.8S4 75.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.3S0 72.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.7S4 70.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 17.6S4 65.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 79.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AND HAS A SMALL (20 NM) CLOUD FILLED EYE. TC 25S IS BEING
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH OF WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE
ARE FORECASTING CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130
KNOTS WITHIN 24 HOURS, AS THERE IS CURRENTLY NOTHING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS TO STOP INTENSIFICATION. A WEAKENING TO 100 KNOTS IS
FORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS, BECAUSE SUCH EXTREME INTENSITIES ARE NOT
TYPICALLY SUSTAINABLE FOR A LONG TIME. HOWEVER, 25S SHOULD REMAIN
A POWERFULL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG
060153Z5), 060900Z5 (DTG 060753Z1), 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8) AND
062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990306 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 14.9S4 79.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE AND SCATTEROMETER.
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 79.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 15.5S1 76.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.0S7 73.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.5S2 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 16.9S6 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 17.8S6 63.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 78.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS. THE PAST TRACK HAS BEEN MOVED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TO
REFLECT A 051738Z4 SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH WAS RECIEVED AFTER THE
LAST WARNING WAS ISSUED. THIS INFORMATION WAS ALSO USED TO ADJUST
THE 50 AND 35 KNOT WIND RADII ON THE CURRENT WARNING. FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME: 25S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IN REPSONSE TO STEERING FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE (DVORAK) ANALYSIS INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS. THIS IS TO REFLECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS WAS CONDUCTED AT 052330Z3. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A 130 KNOT INTENSITY WITHIN A DAY DUE
TO A FAVORABLE, LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THEN BEGIN WEAKENING CHIEFLY
BECAUSE OF THE HISTORICALLY DEMONSTRATED INABILITY OF A CYCLONE TO
SUSTAIN SUCH INTENSITIES FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z5 (DTG 060753Z1), 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8), 062100Z9 (DTG
061953Z4) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990306 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 15.0S6 78.3E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 78.3E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 15.4S0 76.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 15.8S4 73.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.3S0 70.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.0S8 68.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 18.5S4 62.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 005 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 77.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY DESPITE A WARMING OF THE CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE EYE REMAINS MOSTLY
OBSCURED DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUD, HOWEVER 052357Z2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE EYEWALL STRUCTURE IS SYMMETRICAL. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 050530Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AUGMENTED
BY EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN
THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER APPROACHING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY.
WIND RADII ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8), 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4), 070300Z0 (DTG
070153Z6) AND 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990306 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 15.5S1 76.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION AC UATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 76.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.3S0 73.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.9S6 70.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.5S3 68.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 18.1S0 65.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 19.5S5 61.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 75.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS AND IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED, MOSTLY CLOUD
FILLED EYE AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM
SLIGHTLY. 060522Z5 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 061130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90
KNOTS) AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S
(DAVINA) IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC AND
STATISTICAL OBJECTIVE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS TRACK
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061200Z9 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4),
070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6), 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2) AND 071500Z3 (DTG
071353Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990306 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 15.6S2 76.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 76.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.3S0 73.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 17.0S8 71.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.6S4 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 18.3S2 66.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 19.6S6 61.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 75.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY (100
KTS) AND IT=S RAGGED EYE FEATURE. ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF FIX LOCATIONS
FROM LA-REUNION, AFWA, DIEGO GARCIA, AND JTWC. THE WARNING
INTENSITY (100 KTS) IS ALSO BASED ON A COMBINATION OF INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77-102 KTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S
(DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS GENERAL TRACK. TC
25S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER RATE DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS ARE AT 12 HOUR INTERVALS 070900Z6 (DTG
070753Z2) AND 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990307 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 16.5S2 73.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 73.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 17.2S0 70.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.0S9 67.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.0S0 64.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.2S4 61.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 72.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. WARNING POSITION BASED ON
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE SYSTEM TO BE NEAR 102 TO 115 KTS.
ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. TC 25S(DAVINA)IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER RATE DUE TO
THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. WIND RADII ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5) AND 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990307 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 17.2S0 69.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 69.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.7S5 66.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 18.4S3 63.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 19.1S1 60.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 20.1S3 57.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 68.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY (105 KTS) ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND FIX POSITIONING FROM AFWA, SUITLAND, AND LA-
REUNION. THESE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE
SYSTEM TO BE BETWEEN 102 TO 115 KTS. ANIMATION INDICATES A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE
AND A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATION ALSO
SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER
THAN NORMAL RATE DUE TO THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. WIND
RADII ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3) AND 082100Z1 (DTG
081953Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990308 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 17.4S2 66.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 66.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 17.5S3 63.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 18.4S3 60.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 19.4S4 57.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 20.6S8 54.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 65.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (100 KTS) ARE
BASED ON 080530Z6 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE SYSTEM TO BE 102
KTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE OF THE SYSTEM TO BE FILLING
WITH CLOUDS, AND LESS DISTINGUISHABLE. INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
THAT THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS BEING ELONGATED AS IT IS
MOVING INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC
25S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
WIND RADII ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990308 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 18.4S3 63.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
155 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 18.4S3 63.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 19.2S2 60.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 20.1S3 58.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
155 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 21.1S4 55.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 21.5S8 52.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5 62.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED UPON 081730Z9 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 100 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOUD FILLED EYE AS TC 25S APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD. TROPICAL CYCLONE
25S (DAVINA) CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE
25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AS AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD, THE RIDGE
SHOULD REBUILD TO THE SOUTH AND THE FORECAST TRACK ONCE AGAIN
STRIKES OUT WESTWARD BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25S SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES THE
EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
AND INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS OF REUNION AND MAURITIUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990309 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 19.6S6 60.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 60.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 21.0S3 57.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 22.1S5 54.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 22.9S3 51.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 23.2S7 48.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 59.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 17 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 090433Z9 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENISTY
ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). TC 25S (DAVINA) HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS ENTERING INTO A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE
CURRENT STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A EASTWARD BUILDING RIDGE
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHILE CONTINUING ON
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE STEERING FLOW OF THE EASTWARD BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE INITIAL 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE WESTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW STEERING FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH
NEARBY ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BEGIN WEAKENING TC 25S (DAVINA)
DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD TAKE
TC 25S (DAVINA) THROUGH THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGES AND ON MORE
OF A SOUTHWARD TRACK AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE CURRENT
STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z5 IS 26 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7)
AND 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S
(NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990309 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 20.8S0 57.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
155 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 20.8S0 57.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 22.1S5 54.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 23.2S7 51.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 24.0S6 49.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 24.5S1 46.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 56.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS
REUNION AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON 091730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH TC 25S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUILDS EASTWARD, TC 25S SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD
BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POOR
PROBABILITY THAT TC 25S MAY STILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THAN THE
TRACK FORECAST IF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST DOESNT BUILD IN AS
PREDICTED. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091800Z8 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6) AND
102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990310 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 21.7S0 55.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 55.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 22.6S0 54.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 23.3S8 52.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 23.9S4 50.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 24.2S8 47.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 55.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 100530Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND REPORTS OF
NEAR 80 KNOTS. TC 25S (DAVINA) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC
25S (DAVINA) HAS SLOWED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND ANOTHER EASTWARD
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS EASTWARD BUILDING
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE INITIAL 24 TO 36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A POOR
PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK FURTHER SOUTHWARD IF THE
EASTWARD BUILDING RIDGE FAILS TO DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
INCREASING SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING TC 25S (DAVINA)
DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100600Z7 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9) AND
110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990310 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 22.7S1 53.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S1 53.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 23.6S1 52.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 24.4S0 50.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 25.3S0 48.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 26.0S8 46.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 22.9S3 53.4E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA)
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101700Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER (101330Z8) TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT
MISSION MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY (80 KTS) IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T4.0 (65 KTS) AND T5.0 (90 KTS). TC 25S (DAVINA) HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 25S (DAVINA) HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE AND ANOTHER EASTWARD BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS JUST SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER TC25S BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
THIS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER
36HRS, TC 25S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHEARING AS IT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AS
THE SHEARING SEPARATES THE CONVECTION FROM THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), THE LLCC SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR AS AN EXPOSED LLCC. THERE IS A POOR PROBABILITY TC25S
COULD TRACK FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND RAPIDLY MOVE OUT WITH THE
CONVECTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR COMBINED
WITH LAND INTERACTION FROM MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING TC 25S (DAVINA) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7) AND 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990311 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 23.0S5 53.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 53.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 23.5S0 52.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 24.1S7 51.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 24.9S5 50.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 25.7S4 48.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 23.1S6 53.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS SLOWED AND TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 3 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS). TC 25S (DAVINA) HAS MOVED INTO A REGION OF WEAK
STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHWEST HAS NOT BUILT AS FAR EAST AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED IN
ORDER TO STEER THE ENTIRE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
AS INCREASING SHEAR BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM, LOWER LEVEL
STEERING FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO AGAIN TRACK THE WEAKENING SYSTEM (LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER) ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
SHEAR TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25S (DAVINA)
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE INITIAL 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER
WATER BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 25 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0)
AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8).
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990311 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 23.1S6 52.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 52.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 23.5S0 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 24.1S7 51.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 24.8S4 51.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 25.7S4 50.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 52.7E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA)
HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW AND TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 2 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111700Z0 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY (75 KNOTS) IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND T4.5
(77 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS JUST SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATION
ALSO SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER TC25S BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THIS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. TC 25S (DAVINA) REMAINS
IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
FIRST 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, WE EXPECT A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK
AS TC25S BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND FALLS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER LEVELS. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A HIGHER
WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATING
OVER WATER BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 24 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8)
AND 122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990312 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 23.0S5 52.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 52.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 23.3S8 51.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 24.0S6 51.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 24.8S4 50.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 25.5S2 49.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 23.1S6 52.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARING INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 KNOTS. TC 25S (DAVINA) HAS REMAINED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CELLS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THE RESULTING WEAK STEERING FLOW
HAS CAUSED ERRATIC TRACKING OF THE SYSTEMS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
TC 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RESUME A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEGINS TO MOVE
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOWER LEVEL WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING ON MORE OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
AFTER 24 HOURS AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS SHEARED THE SYSTEMS CONVECTION
TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND EXPOSED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE STILL
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED. AN 111923Z7 SCATTEROMETER IMAGE HAS BEEN
USED TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELDS APPROPRIATELY. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS, AND BEGIN
DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 23 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6
(DTG 121953Z1) AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990312 21:00z COR
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 025A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 22.8S2 52.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 22.8S2 52.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 22.7S1 52.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 22.6S0 52.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.8S2 52.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 121730Z4 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TC 25S IS A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL
STEERING. HOWEVER, TC 25S CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING OVER WATER. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 25S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS
TC 25S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 14 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION IS TO ADD NEXT WARNING REFERENCES IN
THE FOLLOWING SENTENCE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9),
AND 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990313 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 026
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 22.2S6 52.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 52.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 22.2S6 53.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 22.7S1 53.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 22.2S6 52.8E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 KTS OFF
THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 130530Z2 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND A 35 KNOT SHIP REPORT 120 NM
TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 25S
IS A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ALL OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A
MODERATELY TIGHT WRAPPING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A
CYCLONIC PATH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL STEERING.
IT CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUES
TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
TC 25S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS TC 25S IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990313 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 22.0S4 53.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 22.0S4 53.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 22.3S7 53.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 22.7S1 53.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.1S5 53.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 2 KNOTS OFF
THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 131730Z5 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH 131438Z0 MICROWAVE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TC 25S IS A TOTALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S IS EMBEDDED IN
WEAK STEERING FLOW DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN A SLOW CYCLONIC
LOOP AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH BEGINS TO BECOME DOMINANT. ALTHOUGH TC 25S CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
SPINNING DOWN SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, A 131553Z8 MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WEAKENING, AND TC 25S
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0) AND 142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990314 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 21.9S2 52.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 52.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 21.9S2 52.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 21.9S2 51.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 52.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS MOVED WESTWARD AT 2 KTS OFF THE
EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 140530Z2 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KTS AND THE TIGHT WRAPPING OF THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 25S IS A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO
THE EAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS CEASED ITS CYCLONIC
MOVEMENT OF THE PAST 2 DAYS AND BEGUN TO MOVE TO THE WEST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT LOWER LEVELS HAS BUILT IN TO THE SOUTH, GIVING
IT A MORE DEFINED STEERING FLOW. THIS STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE
SYSTEM TRACKING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 25S CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS DISSIPATING OVER WATER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P
(HALI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990314 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 21.0S3 51.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 21.0S3 51.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 20.7S9 51.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.9S1 51.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
OSITION IS BASED UPON 141730Z6 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW TC 25S IS A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLCC), BUT THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AS IT CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS
12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_davina_jtwc_advisories.htm
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