WTPS25 PGTW 990121 22:00z
212155Z JAN 99//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY
HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8S3 150.0E6 TO 19.2S2
156.4E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 211800Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S7 150.6E2.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS ORGANIZING SIMILAR TO TC 13P, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION PRIMARILY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. 211800Z2
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES HIGHEST WINDS ARE ALSO LOCATED WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER, INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER, RESULTING IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 222200Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS33 PGTW 990122 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P WARNING NR 001
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z0 --- NEAR 16.2S9 152.9E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 16.2S9 152.9E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 17.7S5 154.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 19.8S8 155.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 21.8S1 156.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 23.8S3 157.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 153.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P HAS FORMED OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON A 220530Z2 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS AND A SHIP SYNOPTIC REPORT OF 40
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
TC 14P IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE IN THE WAKE OF TC 13P (OLINDA).
DEEP CONVECTION IS FORMING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE OUTFLOW TO
THE NORTHWEST IS GOOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
WAKE OF TC 13P UNDER THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P SHOULD
SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY AS THE DISTANCE BETWEEN 14P AND 13P
INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 12
FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 212155Z
JAN 99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS25 PGTW 212200 )
NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 (DTG 221955Z4) AND 230900Z4 (DTG
230755Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P
(OLINDA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS33 PGTW 990122 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNING NR 002
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z3 --- NEAR 18.2S1 154.5E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 154.5E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 20.2S4 156.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 22.2S6 158.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            135 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 23.9S4 159.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 25.0S7 162.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            155 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6  154.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT 13
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE FORECAST POSITION IS BASED ON
221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A
SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORT (VRVD6) OF 40 KNOTS. TC 14P (PETE) HAS
INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST WARNING AS THE SYSTEMS ORIGINAL
BROAD CIRCULATION BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TOWARDS THE
CENTER. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON
THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO WEAK
WESTWARD SHEAR. TC 14P (PETE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF TC 13P (OLINDA) AND UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. A
WEAK APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY ALSO HELP T0 STEER
THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD. SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, TC 14P (PETE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION
JUST LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICALLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO
WWPN31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z4 (DTG 230755Z2) AND 232100Z8 (DTG 231955Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  15S
(NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPS34 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS33 PGTW 990123 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNING NR 003
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z1 --- NEAR 20.9S1 156.9E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 156.9E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 23.2S7 159.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            155 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 25.5S2 161.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 27.6S5 164.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 30.6S9 167.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8 157.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT 17
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
230530Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY (40 KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND INTERPOLATION
OF SYNOPTIC SHIP DATA WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. TC 14P (PETE) HAS
MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES ITS
RATHER FAST MOVEMENT SOUTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING, WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS, OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS TC 14P (PETE) CONTINUES TO FOLLOW IN
THE TROUGH BEHIND TC 13P (OLINDA). SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES  THE
STEERING FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST-EAST. TC 14P (PETE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF TC 13P (OLINDA) AND UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
AN APPROACHING WEAK TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD ALSO HELP T0
STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PREDOMINANT WESTERLY FLOW.
TC 14P (PETE) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THE 48 HOUR POINT AS IT BEGINS INTERACTION WITH
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. CONDITIONS REMAIN SLIGHTLY
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH BEGINS TO ADVERSELY EFFECT TC 14P
(PETE). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 (DTG 231955Z5) AND 240900Z5 (DTG 240755Z3).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 004 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTPS33 PGTW 990124 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNING NR 005
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z2 --- NEAR 24.8S4 162.6E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S4 162.6E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 26.3S1 164.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 28.0S0 167.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 29.9S0 170.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            135 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 31.6S0 175.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 25.2S9 163.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT
11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
240530Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY (50 KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ZEALAND
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH OF TC 14P (PETE). ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS
TC 14P (PETE) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF TC
13P (OLINDA) WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE REMAINS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY THE 36HOUR POSITION, TC 14P (PETE)
SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH JUST EAST OF
NEW ZEALAND. THIS INTERACTION SHOULD ALLOW TC 14P TO ACCELERATE AND
BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. AS WITH THE TWO
PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONES (11P AND 13P), THAT HAVE TAKEN THIS GENERAL
PATH, TC 14P (PETE) IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO
BEGIN DECREASING BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 (DTG 241955Z6)
AND 250900Z6 (DTG 250755Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS33 PGTW 990124 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNING NR 006
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z5 --- NEAR 25.2S9 165.4E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S9 165.4E6
    ---

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 26.0S8 170.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 27.1S0 173.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 28.2S2 176.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 25.2S9  166.1E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE EAST AT
13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 241730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS).
TC 14P HAS CONTINUED TO APPEAR LESS IMPRESSIVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
SHEAR. TC 14P REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE EAST. AS TC 14P (PETE) CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO FOLLOW THE STEERING OF THE
SHALLOW RIDGE TO ITS EAST, TRACKING THE SYSTEM MORE SOUTHEASTWARD
AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS. TC 14P (PETE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND TO BEGIN ITS TRANSITION
INTO A EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 (DTG
250755Z4) AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251955Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13P (OLINDA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  15S (DAMIEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. //
=========================================================================
WARNING 007 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTPS33 PGTW 252100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNING NR 008
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z6 --- NEAR 24.7S3 167.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S3 167.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 24.7S3 169.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 24.9S5 170.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 24.7S3 167.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHEARED AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND ALL DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON AN INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM PREVIOUS 251500Z3
SYNOPTIC AND SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD IN SHALLOW ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING AND
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 16P IS ANTICIPATED TO
DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6
IS 16 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_pete_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]