WTPS23 PGTW 990210 04:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
100353Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY
HONIARA
SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 16.6S3 148.4E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8 148.1E4.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND IS FAIR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT, GOOD ELSEWHERE. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS ARE
IN A CONVERGENT BAND TO THE NORTH, HOWEVER LIGHTER WINDS ARE NOW
WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 110400Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990210 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (RONA) WARNING NR 001
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z0 --- NEAR 16.1S8 148.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 080 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 148.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 16.3S0 148.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 16.6S3 147.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 16.9S6 147.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 17.3S1 147.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.1S8  148.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (RONA) HAS FORMED IN THE CORAL SEA NORTHEAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (35
KNOTS) ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KNOTS, EXTRAPOLATION FROM SHIP
SYNOPTIC DATA, AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A MICROWAVE SCATTEROMETER
PASS (101300Z5). TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE BROAD MONSOON TROUGH UNDER THE WEAK
STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. TC 20P IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS ITS UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
STRENGTHENS. TROPICAL CYCLONE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z0 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN 100353Z FEB 99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS23 PGTW 100400) NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7) AND
112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  19P (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990211 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P WARNING NR 002
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z8 --- NEAR 16.8S5 146.9E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 146.9E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 17.4S2 146.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 18.2S1 145.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 19.0S0 144.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8  146.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (RONA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT
7 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
110530Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON 110530Z0 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC DATA. TC 20P
(RONA) HAS INTENSIFIED AND ACCELERATED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. TC 20P (RONA) IS WELL AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
POSTION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 20P
(RONA) IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR INNISFAIL, QUEENSLAND,
JUST AFTER THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO TRACK
INLAND. 110300Z5 SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATED THAT 35 KNOTS WINDS WERE
ALREADY JUST OFFSHORE NEAR CAPE BOWLING GREEN. TC 20P (RONA) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNTIL MAKING
LANDFALL. INTERACTION WITH LAND IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. TC 20P (RONA) IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0) AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  18S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  19P (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990211 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z1 --- NEAR 16.5S2 144.6E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 144.6E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 16.7S4 144.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 17.0S8 144.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 17.4S2 144.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 17.8S6 144.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 144.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (RONA) MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA NEAR PORT DOUGLAS AROUND 111300Z6. PEAK INTENSITY WAS
ESTIMATED AT 65KTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TC 20P (RONA) HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
COASTAL SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY (45 KNOTS) IS
BASED ON 111730Z3 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45-55
KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. TC 20P (RONA) HAS SLOWED RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVED INTO THE GREAT DIVIDING RANGE MOUTAINS. SATELLITE ANIMATION
SHOWS THE CONVECTION WEAKENING AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
BUT SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS CAUGHT UP IN THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE REMNANTS OF TC 20P
(RONA) IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER
LAND WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8) AND 122100Z6
(DTG 121953Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990212 09:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P WARNING NR 004    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z9 --- NEAR 16.3S0 142.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 142.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 16.1S8 141.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 16.8S5 139.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 18.5S4 139.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0  142.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (RONA) HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATED WINDFIELD FROM 120300Z6 SYNOPTIC DATA.
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL NEAR T2.0 (30 
KNOTS). TC 20P (RONA) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK OVER THE GREAT DIVIDE 
MOUNTAIN RANGE AND TOWARDS THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE STEERING 
FOR THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND, BUT 
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TC 20P 
(RONA) TOWARDS THE WEST. A DEFINED CIRCULATION AND SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION STILL EXISTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT AS 
TC 20P (RONA) PULLS ADDITIONAL WARM, MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF 
CARPENTARIA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER NEAR THE 12 HOUR 
FORECAST PERIOD, THE WINDFIELD IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEAR MINIMAL 
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH UNTIL MOVING BACK OVER LAND AFTER THE 24 
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. TC 20P (RONA) IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH 
AND MOVE INLAND, DISSIPATING OVER LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 
(DTG 121953Z1) AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE 19P (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY 
UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990212 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- NEAR 16.7S4 141.3E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 141.3E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 17.2S0 140.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 18.0S9 139.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 141.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (RONA) CONTINUES TO DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS QUEENSLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED DESPITE
FAIR UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON A 121730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25
KNOTS SUPPLEMENTED BY 121800Z4 SYNOPTIC DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P
(RONA) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, BRIEFLY
TRANSITING THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER LAND
AT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI).  THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_rona_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]