WTXS21 PGTW 20000220 05:30z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200451Z FEB 00//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW
200500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6S1 77.7E1 TO 16.3S0 70.8E5
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 192330Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 15.1S7 76.8E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N9
77.5E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S7 76.8E1, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS.
UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 210530Z1.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 16.8S5 104.0E5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000221 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FELICIA) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z3 --- NEAR 16.7S4 74.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 74.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 17.3S1 72.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 17.6S4 70.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 17.8S6 68.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 18.1S0 66.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 73.6E6.
TC 12S (FELICIA) HAS FORMED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM EAST OF MAURITIUS,
AND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 202330Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. A 201815Z7 ERS-2 SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATES AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WEST OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG CONVECTION ORGANIZING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC WITH A BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS BEING SHEARED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE, AS EVIDENCED BY A TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT, BUT HAS FAIR OUTFLOW IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. UW-
CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER TC
12S (FELICIA). TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS SOUTH. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY DEVELOP AT A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, TC 12S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTER 24 HOURS
UNDER A GRADUALLY IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210000Z3 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN 200521Z0 FEB 00 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 200530). NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5) AND
220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000221 15:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FELICIA) WARNING NR 002    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z6 --- NEAR 17.3S1 72.6E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 72.6E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 17.9S7 70.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 18.3S2 68.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 18.7S6 66.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 19.1S1 64.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 72.1E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FELICIA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
211100Z5 AND 211130Z8 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 
35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG CONVECTION 
ORGANIZING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH A BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE LLCC. ENHANCED 
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING WEAK 
SHEAR ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE, ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD 
IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER TC 12S (FELICIA). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO 
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE 
TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTER 24 HOURS UNDER A GRADUALLY 
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3) AND 221500Z0 
(DTG 221353Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNINGS 
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000222 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FELICIA) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z4 --- NEAR 19.2S2 69.6E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 69.6E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 19.9S9 67.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 20.9S1 64.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 22.0S4 61.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 22.5S9 58.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 69.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FELICIA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, 350 NM TO THE EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 212330Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
DEPICTS STRONG CONVECTION ORGANIZING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW TO
THE SOUTH, AND FAIR IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
EVIDENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS ENHANCING THE
NORTHWESTERLY, UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER TC 12S (FELICIA), WITH A RAPID INCREASE TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 12S (FELICIA)
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT MOVES IN THE
DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z0 (DTG
221353Z6) AND 230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S
(LEON-ELINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000222 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FELICIA) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z7 --- NEAR 21.8S1 68.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S1 68.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 23.7S2 66.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 25.3S0 64.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 26.7S5 62.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 27.9S8 60.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION NEAR 22.3S7 68.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FELICIA) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, 300 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
PORT MATHURIN. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221030Z8 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH, AND FAIR IN
ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TC 12S (FELICIA) WILL THEN TRACK MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z7 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4) AND 231500Z1 (DTG
231353Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000223 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FELICIA) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z5 --- NEAR 24.5S1 67.0E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S1 67.0E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 27.3S2 66.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 30.3S6 66.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 33.2S8 67.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 35.8S6 69.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z8 POSITION NEAR 25.2S9 66.8E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FELICIA), LOCATED 340 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 222330Z2 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO
BUILD EQUATORWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ALTER THE
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW AND ALLOW TC 12S (FELICIA) TO TRACK MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. TC 12S (FELICIA) IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN THE 24 TO 36 FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z1 (DTG 231353Z7) AND 240300Z9 (DTG 240153Z5).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000223 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FELICIA) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231200Z8 --- NEAR 26.8S6 65.8E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S6 65.8E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 28.8S8 64.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 30.4S7 62.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION NEAR 27.3S2 65.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FELICIA), LOCATED 450 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231130Z0 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST IS CAUSING
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 12S (FELICIA) IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z9 (DTG 240153Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S
(LEON-ELINE) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW 230300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 240300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FELICIA) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z6 --- NEAR 29.0S1 65.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.0S1 65.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 30.9S2 64.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 29.5S6 64.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FELICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
SOUTH OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 232330Z3
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED
SOUTHEASTWARD. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME CLOUD DISSIPATION IN THE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO BOTH STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE THAT TC 12S IS UNDER MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS WEST WITH A NORTHWESTERLY JET. A 232151Z4
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTS A WEAK
CONVECTIVE BAND SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. TC 12S (FELICIA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 12-HOUR POINT AS IT INTERACTS WITH
COOLER WATER, ABOUT 24 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6 IS 14 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_felicia_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]