Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone PAUL : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1999-2000 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone PAUL Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 20000412 17:30z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120121Z APR 00//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 120130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0S4 117.5E4 TO 14.0S5
108.3E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 041430Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5 116.8E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION
IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
RECENT QUICKSCATT SCATTEROMETER DEPICTS THE LLCC EMBEDDED IN BROADER
TROUGHING. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION IS STARTING TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 131730Z5.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 23.7S2 35.8E6//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000413 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 13.8S2 114.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 114.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 14.1S6 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 14.0S5 109.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 13.4S8 106.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 12.8S1 103.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 113.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S HAS FORMED 375 NM SOUTHEAST OF JAVA AND
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE.
THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE INDICATIVE OF
IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK INITIALLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS SOUTH. AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD. TC 24S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 12 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 121721Z APR 00
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 121730). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4) AND 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000413 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 14.6S1 111.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 111.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 14.9S4 109.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 14.8S3 107.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.7S2 105.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 14.6S1 102.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 111.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH
OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONG BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE AND INTO THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS BENEATH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, CENTERED OVER THE BROAD CIRCULATION TO THE EAST.
OUTFLOW ALOFT HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. TC
24S (PAUL) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S (PAUL) IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO HINDER
DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG
140151Z2) AND 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000414 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 14.7S2 108.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 108.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 14.8S3 106.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.7S2 104.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 14.4S9 101.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 13.7S1 99.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 108.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT ERS-2
SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE SYSTEM REMAINS
BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, CENTERED OVER THE BROAD CIRCULATION
TO THE EAST. OUTFLOW ALOFT HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS. TC 24S (PAUL) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER THE
36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. TC
24S (PAUL) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS BENEATH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5) AND 150300Z9 (DTG
150151Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000414 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 15.0S6 107.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 107.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 15.2S8 104.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 15.2S8 102.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 15.4S0 101.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 15.6S2 99.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 106.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141130Z0
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. A 10 NM EYE IS NOW EVIDENT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE. TC 24S (PAUL) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S (PAUL) IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST TIME, THEN REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141200Z8 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3) AND
151500Z2 (DTG 151351Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000415 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 14.5S0 104.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 104.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 14.2S7 102.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 14.0S5 100.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 14.1S6 98.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 14.2S7 96.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 104.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
142330Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 TO 127 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC 24S
(PAUL) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND A 15 NM ROUND EYE. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OUTFLOW OVER TC 24S HAS IMPROVED. TC
24S (PAUL) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S
(PAUL) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD
UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARDS, TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z6 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2 (DTG 151351Z6) AND
160300Z0 (DTG
160151Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000415 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- NEAR 13.9S3 102.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 102.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 13.9S3 100.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 14.1S6 98.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 14.6S1 96.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 15.3S9 94.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 102.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 151130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE 10 NM EYE HAS BECOME
CLOUD FILLED. A 151108Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I)
PASS INDICATED A WELL DEVELOPED EYE WITH A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING
IN TOWARD THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED NEAR 20S2 90E9 WILL PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING FLOW
FOR TC 24S (PAUL) DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INDIRECT
INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL LOW SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
WILL WEAKEN THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS
CAUSING TC 24S TO TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 24S (PAUL) IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING THE SSM/I PASS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160300Z0 (DTG 160151Z4) AND 161500Z3 (DTG 161351Z7). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000416 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- NEAR 13.6S0 101.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 101.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 13.6S0 99.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 14.0S5 97.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 14.5S0 95.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 15.0S6 93.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 100.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
152330Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127
AND 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A 19 NM CLOUD FILLED EYE. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT TC 24S
(PAUL) HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED NEAR 19S0 91E0 WILL PROVIDE A WESTWARD
STEERING FLOW FOR TC 24S (PAUL) DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD,
INDIRECT INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA WILL WEAKEN THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS CAUSING TC 24S TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. TC
24S (PAUL) IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT ERS-2
SCATTEROMETER PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 (DTG 161351Z7) AND 170300Z1 (DTG
170151Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000416 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z0 --- NEAR 13.7S1 99.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 99.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 13.9S3 97.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 14.3S8 95.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 14.5S0 94.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 14.3S8 92.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 98.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
161130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 AND 140 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICT A 12 NM CLOUD FILLED
EYE. EYE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED AND CONVECTION TOPS HAVE WARMED
INDICATIVE OF A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. INDIRECT INTERACTION WITH
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS WEAKENED
THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS CAUSING TC 24S
TO TEMPORARILY TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. LATER IN THE
PERIOD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EQUATORWARD WHICH
SHOULD TRACK TC 24S MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TC 24S (PAUL) IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z0 IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG 170151Z5) AND 171500Z4 (DTG 171351Z8).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (NEIL) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (NONAME) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000417 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- NEAR 13.9S3 98.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 98.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 14.1S6 96.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 14.4S9 95.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 14.6S1 93.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 14.5S0 91.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 97.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A 20 NM IRREGULAR CLOUD FILLED
EYE. EYE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED AND CONVECTION TOPS HAVE WARMED
INDICATIVE OF A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. INDIRECT INTERACTION WITH
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE) SITUATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA HAS WEAKENED THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS CAUSING TC 24S TO TEMPORARILY TRACK MORE TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD EQUATORWARD WHICH SHOULD TRACK TC 24S MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TC 24S (PAUL) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG
171351Z8) AND 180300Z2 (DTG 180151Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P
(NEIL) WARNING (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000417 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- NEAR 14.4S9 96.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 96.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 14.8S3 94.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 15.1S7 92.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 15.1S7 90.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 15.0S6 88.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 96.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
171130Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115
AND 127 KNOTS. A 171010Z0 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM)
PASS DEPICTED A RELATIVELY SMALL (90 NM), SYMMETRIC SYSTEM. THE
(37GHZ) IMAGE INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAD REMAINED CLOUD FILLED.
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WIND RADII OF TC 24S WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. INDIRECT INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
26S (INNOCENTE) SITUATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS
WEAKENED THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS
CAUSING TC 24S TO TEMPORARILY TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EQUATORWARD WHICH SHOULD TRACK TC 24S WESTWARD. TC 24S (PAUL) IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z2 (DTG 180151Z6) AND 181500Z5 (DTG
181351Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
27S (ROSITA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000418 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z9 --- NEAR 14.7S2 95.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 95.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 15.1S7 94.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 15.2S8 93.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 15.3S9 91.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 15.4S0 90.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 95.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
172330Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTED CONVECTION LIMITED TO A WELL DEFINED
EYEWALL, BUT A VERY TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. TC 24S (PAUL) HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN, ALTHOUGH MAINTAINING ITS CLOUD FILLED EYE, AS EVIDENT IN THE
INFRARED IMAGERY. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS WESTWARD
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. TC 24S (PAUL) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z5 (DTG 181351Z9) AND 190300Z3 (DTG
190151Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
27S (ROSITA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000418 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z2 --- NEAR 14.6S1 95.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 95.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 14.8S3 94.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 14.9S4 92.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 15.0S6 91.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 15.0S6 90.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 94.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
181130Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED CLOUD FILLED EYE. TC 24S
(PAUL) HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITS
CLOUD FILLED EYE, AS EVIDENT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. TC 24S (PAUL)
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S (PAUL) IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES
INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z2 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 (DTG 190151Z7) AND
191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 27S (ROSITA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000419 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- NEAR 14.9S4 95.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 95.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 14.9S4 94.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 15.2S8 93.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 15.5S1 92.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 15.7S3 91.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 94.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
182330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ELONGATION TO THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AXIS, AS WELL AS FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. TC
24S (PAUL) HAD REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY FOR APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS
BEFORE DRIFTING WESTWARD AGAIN FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. TC
24S (PAUL) IS FORECAST TO RESUME ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTERWARD COURSE AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PICKS UP THE STEERING FLOW ONCE AGAIN. TC 24S
(PAUL) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG
191351Z0) AND 200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S
(INNOCENTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ROSITA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000419 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- NEAR 14.7S2 94.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASI-STATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 94.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 14.8S3 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 15.0S6 93.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 15.2S8 93.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 15.5S1 92.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 94.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 191130Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT ELONGATION ON
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS, AS WELL AS FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE
PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE WEAKNESS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH LITTLE OR NO STEERING FLOW. TC 24S (PAUL) IS
FORECAST TO RESUME ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z3 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9) AND 201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE) WARNING (WTXS32
PGTW 190900) FOR FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S
(ROSITA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000420 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z2 --- NEAR 14.9S4 94.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 94.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 15.0S6 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 15.1S7 93.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 15.3S9 93.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 15.6S2 92.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 94.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SOUTHWEST DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH SYSTEM BECOMING
DISORGANIZED. A 192310Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK
DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH TO WEST OF THE LLCC. TC 24S (PAUL) IS WITHIN A
WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BUT IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE UW-CIMSS AND 200 ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT
TC 24S IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 24S (PAUL)
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, AND SHOULD
WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING
BY THE 36 HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z2 IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2) AND 210300Z6 (DTG
210151Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ROSITA) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000420 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z5 --- NEAR 14.9S4 93.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 93.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 15.1S7 93.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 15.4S0 92.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 15.8S4 90.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 93.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
201130Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES GENERATED BY THE RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DISPLACE THE CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
SITUATED ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED NEAR 21.0S3 77.0E4 IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
TC 24S (PAUL) WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 24S IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYST
EM CONTINUES TO TRACK IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z6 (DTG 210151Z0) AND 211500Z9 (DTG 211351Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ROSITA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR FINAL
WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000421 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z3 --- NEAR 15.0S6 92.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 92.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 15.2S8 91.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 15.6S2 90.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 16.2S9 89.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 92.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AT 05
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
202330Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING
FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE INITIAL 12 HOUR PERIOD AS THE LLCC
MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THEN CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 211500Z9 (DTG 211351Z3) AND 220300Z7 (DTG 220151Z1). //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000421 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z6 --- NEAR 15.3S9 92.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 92.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 15.7S3 90.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 91.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211330Z0
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. A
210821Z4 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTED A
BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED
ISOLATED CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 45 NM TO THE EAST AND 130 NM TO
THE NORTHWEST. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MODERATE EASTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS THAT TC
24S HAS REMAINED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. STEERING
FLOW PROVIDED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-NORTHWEST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TC 24S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WITHIN THE WEAKNESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 24S
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z6 IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_paul_jtwc_advisories.htm
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